The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its growth forecast for Nigeria to 3.9 percent in 2025 and 4.1 percent in 2026, reflecting optimism over the country’s improving macroeconomic indicators and supportive domestic policies.
The revised projection, contained in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released during the IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington D.C., marks a significant upward shift compared to previous forecasts. The Fund said Nigeria’s improved performance was driven by higher oil production, rising investor confidence, exchange rate stability, and structural fiscal reforms.
Globally, however, the IMF expects growth to decline from 3.3 percent in 2024 to 3.2 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026, as protectionist trade measures and fading temporary boosts weigh on expansion.
Speaking at a WEO press briefing, IMF Economic Counsellor Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said:
“Whereas growth in Nigeria is revised upward on account of supportive domestic factors, including higher oil production, improved investor confidence, and a supportive fiscal stance in 2026, many other economies see significant downward revisions because of the changing international trade and official aid landscape.”
He noted that Nigeria’s limited exposure to higher US tariffs, stable foreign reserves, and the ongoing rebasing of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) also contributed to the positive outlook.
In response, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor Olayemi Cardoso said the reforms implemented under President Bola Tinubu’s administration have “fully restructured the economy,” creating strong buffers and resilience against global shocks.
Speaking at the Intergovernmental Group of Twenty-Four (G-24) briefing, Cardoso said:
“We now have a more competitive currency and, for once, a positive balance of trade surplus expected to remain around six percent of GDP. The economy is witnessing a shift from import dependency to domestic production and export growth.”
He added that the government’s fiscal and monetary reforms had enhanced stability and reduced vulnerability to global tariff disputes.
The IMF report also cited broader global economic trends, noting that while emerging and developing economies will grow above 4.0 percent, advanced economies are expected to hover around 1.5 percent. Inflation is projected to continue easing worldwide, though risks remain tilted to the downside due to protectionism, geopolitical tensions, and labor supply shocks.
The Fund urged governments to maintain credible, transparent, and sustainable policies, rebuild fiscal buffers, and preserve central bank independence. It also warned that short-term strategies such as trade rerouting and diversion could undermine long-term productivity and global growth.
“The global economy has shown resilience to trade policy shocks, but the drag from shifting policies is becoming visible,” the WEO stated. “Suboptimal reallocation of resources and technological decoupling may restrain growth in the years ahead.”
IMF Deputy Research Director Petya Koeva Brooks noted that Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth would remain stable at 4.1 percent in 2025 before rising slightly to 4.4 percent in 2026, adding that Nigeria’s upward revision sets it apart as one of the region’s key bright spots.
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