Ahead of Saturday’s governorship election, the three leading candidates in the poll have intensified their campaigns as they seek to secure victory.

The incumbent Governor, Ademola Adeleke, who is running on the platform of the Accord Party; the candidate of the All Progressives Congress, Bola Oyebamiji; and Dr Najeem Salaam of the African Democratic Congress have been running neck-and-neck, consolidating their holds on their respective strongholds while wooing power brokers in local government areas where they have weaker campaign structures.

All three leading candidates hail from Osun West Senatorial District, with Adeleke and Salaam coming from the Ede North/Ede South/Egbedore/Ejigbo Federal Constituency.

Oyebamiji, the APC candidate, hails from the Irewole/Isokan/Ayedaade Federal Constituency.

After almost four years in office, Adeleke has been using projects executed by his administration as a bargaining chip across the local government areas of the state.

Banking on block votes from the two local government areas in Ede, his hometown, Adeleke is also expected to win Egbedore Local Government Area, where the incumbent member representing his federal constituency, Bamidele Salam, hails from.

With the influence of his running mate, Kola Adewusi, and former PDP National Secretary, Prof. Wale Oladipo, Adeleke’s camp also considers Ife Central, Ife East and Ife South among the local government areas where he is expected to perform well.

However, Adeleke’s chances in the three local government areas could be limited by the fact that Oyebamiji’s running mate, Benjamin Adereti, also hails from Ile-Ife.

Adeleke’s camp will also be hoping that former APC National Secretary, Senator Iyiola Omisore, does not actively support Oyebamiji, as this could further boost the incumbent governor’s chances.

Ifelodun, Ila, Oriade, Iwo, Ifedayo, Orolu and Olaoluwa are also among the council areas where Adeleke’s foot soldiers have made noticeable inroads.

The support Adeleke enjoys from Iwo-born former Secretary to the Osun State Government, Moshood Adeoti, may also count in his favour, particularly in the Iwo Federal Constituency.

Adeleke’s chances of winning, particularly in the Iwo Federal Constituency, may, however, be hampered by Dr Amin Ogunbiyi, who is the senatorial candidate of the party in the 2027 general election.

Findings by The PUNCH indicate that all three leading candidates could secure a significant number of votes in the two local government areas in Osogbo, the state capital.

While the Ataoja of Osogbo, Oba Jimoh Oyetunji, has openly declared support for Adeleke, APC National Secretary, Senator Ajibola Basiru, and the party’s senatorial candidate in the 2027 poll, Adekunle Adegoke (SAN), are making inroads into some of Adeleke’s strongholds in the two LGAs.

The considerably large following that former Osun State Governor, Rauf Aregbesola, still enjoys in Osogbo is also helping Salaam’s cause in both Osogbo and Olorunda local government areas.

Oyebamiji will be banking on block votes from the Ayedaade/Irewole/Isokan Federal Constituency.

With the influence of former governorship hopeful, Dotun Babayemi, who hails from Gbongan, one of the biggest towns in the federal constituency, Oyebamiji appears to have an edge over the other leading candidates in the area.

The adoption of the faction of the PDP led by former governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola may also prove crucial to delivering Odo Otin Local Government Area for the APC.

The presence of the Speaker of the House of Assembly, Wale Egbedun, in the political equation of the local government area may, however, limit Oyebamiji’s chances.

The APC candidate also has a realistic chance of winning Boluwaduro and Boripe, where the Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Adegboyega Oyetola, hails from.

His chances are also considered high in Irepodun, Ife North and Obokun, the latter being the local government area of the lawmaker representing Osun East in the Senate, Francis Fadahunsi.

The lawmaker representing the Atakunmosa East/Atakunmosa West/Ilesa East/Ilesa West Federal Constituency, Sanya Omirin, is also expected to deliver Atakunmosa East and Atakunmosa West local government areas for Oyebamiji, in the absence of a strong pushback by Adeleke’s men.

But Aregbesola’s influence may limit Oyebamiji’s chances in Ilesa East, where the former governor hails from.

Meanwhile, the Executive Director, Project Implementation, Federal Housing Authority, Remi Omowaiye, has been the face of the APC campaign in Ilesa West, where the party appears stronger than its rivals.

Apart from Ejigbo Local Government Area, where Salaam hails from, Ilesa East, Osogbo and Olorunda are other areas where he could put up a strong showing.

Salaam, however, remains a formidable contender, as his influence across the state could swing votes in his favour. He served as Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly for eight years.

He also inherited the political strength of his mentor, Aregbesola, while at the same time carrying some of the political liabilities associated with the former governor.

The main battlegrounds

While the frontrunners, Adeleke and Oyebamiji, may have their traditional strongholds, the election could be decided in Osogbo, Olorunda, the three Ife local government areas, Odo Otin, Iwo and Ilesa East.

Osogbo

Both Adeleke and Oyebamiji are making inroads into the two local government areas in the state capital, while Salaam also has a significant presence in the area.

Olorunda

Olorunda presents a similar picture. Adeleke has the support of the Ataoja, Oyebamiji has APC heavyweights working to strengthen his position, while Salaam is benefiting from the influence of Aregbesola.

 Ife Central, Ife East and Ife South

Adeleke is expected to perform well in the three local government areas, buoyed by the influence of his running mate, Kola Adewusi, and former PDP National Secretary, Wale Oladipo. Oyebamiji, however, has a potentially significant advantage through his running mate, Benjamin Adereti, who hails from Ile-Ife.

Odo Otin

Oyebamiji has the Oyinlola factor working in his favour, but the presence of the Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly, Wale Egbedun, could limit the APC’s advantage, making the local government area a genuine battleground.

Ilesa East

Oyebamiji has an obvious local connection in Ilesa East, but the influence of former governor Aregbesola could complicate his chances. Salaam is also expected to put up a strong showing in the area.

Iwo

Adeleke has the backing of former Secretary to the Osun State Government, Moshood Adeoti, giving him an advantage in Iwo. However, APC’s Amin Ogunbiyi is identified as a potential obstacle. The local government area is therefore another where the incumbent will need to consolidate his support.

Frontrunners dream victory

Meanwhile, the two leading parties have predicted victory for their respective candidates in Saturday’s governorship election.

Speaking exclusively with The PUNCH on Oyebamiji’s chances on Monday, the Osun APC spokesperson, Kola Olabisi, predicted victory for the party in all 30 local government areas in the state.

Olabisi said, “We are projecting winning in all 30 local governments in Osun State because of the acceptability and popularity of our candidate.

“He has been to all the 30 local governments and area offices three times each, while his main opponent has been wining and dining from Ede to Lagos, to Abuja and the United States.

“Our candidate is not a pretender but a contender who is going into the election to win.”

However, the Osun Accord spokesperson, Oladele Bamiji, dismissed Olabisi’s claim, saying Adeleke would win in all 30 council areas in the state.

“There is no local government that our candidate cannot win. We are winning all 30 local governments.

“The governor has touched every local government in the last three years, and the people will reciprocate through their votes,” Bamiji said.

Efforts to reach the ADC spokesperson, Seun Abosede, for comment were unsuccessful.

Calls to his telephone line did not go through, while he had not responded to a WhatsApp message sent to him as of the time of filing this report.

PSC deploys team

The Police Service Commission has deployed a delegation to Osun State to oversee the conduct of police personnel deployed for the August 15, 2026 governorship election.

The delegation, led by DIG Taiwo Lakanu (retd.), a board member and Chairman of the PSC Standing Committee on Police Matters, will monitor police personnel and ensure compliance with guidelines governing election duties.

In a statement on Tuesday, the Head of Protocol and Public Relations of the commission, Torty Njoku Kalu, said the delegation would ensure that police officers maintained discipline and professionalism before, during and after the election.

The commission said the deployment was aimed at safeguarding the integrity of the election and deepening public confidence in the electoral process.

The PSC, however, urged all police officers deployed to the state to remain apolitical, conduct themselves professionally and protect the rights of citizens to vote freely and peacefully.

“The PSC delegation will ensure that officers deployed for the election strictly adhere to the guiding principles governing election duties and uphold the highest standards of discipline and professionalism before, during, and after the polls.

“The Commission is committed to deepening public confidence in the electoral process by guaranteeing that Police conduct remains impartial, rule-based, and civil at all times.

“The Commission urges all Police officers assigned to Osun State for the election to display exemplary conduct, remain apolitical, and protect the rights of all citizens to vote freely and peacefully,” the statement partly read.

The PSC warned that it would sanction any police officer found to have compromised the credibility of the election.

It also directed officers on election duty to uphold the rights of all citizens and ensure a peaceful conduct of the poll.

“The PSC reassures Nigerians that it will not hesitate to sanction any officer found compromising the credibility of the election,”the PSC stated.

The deployment comes as 14 political parties prepare to contest the August 15, 2026 governorship election organised by the Independent National Electoral Commission.

A total of 15,000 police officers had already been deployed for the election.