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Naira hits two-year high at 1,347/$

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The naira has strengthened sharply in recent weeks, reaching one of its strongest levels in nearly two years, even as rising foreign portfolio inflows increase the risk of investor profit-taking later in the year, according to a macro update by CardinalStone.

According to the report, the naira has witnessed a steep appreciation in the official market (+6.9 per cent year to date), reaching one of the strongest levels of the past two years (1,347.78/$ on Monday), which indicates improved liquidity conditions in the official foreign-exchange window.

However, the spread between the official and parallel markets persisted, with the parallel market initially trading at about a 5.7 per cent premium before narrowing to roughly 3.2 per cent following renewed FX interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria.

CardinalStone said the narrowing spread suggests “there was more liquidity in the official window than in the parallel market.”

Last week, the apex bank permitted licensed Bureau de Change operators to access FX through authorised dealers at prevailing market rates, with a weekly purchase limit of $150,000 per BDC subject to KYC requirements. BDCs must also sell unused balances within 24 hours to prevent hoarding, while cash transactions are capped at 25 per cent of total FX trades, with settlement required through licensed financial institutions.

CardinalStone noted that with 82 licensed BDCs, potential supply to the segment could reach about $50m monthly, which is below the more than $1bn supplied monthly before COVID-19.

The disparity, the report said, reflects “material improvements in the FX market that reduced speculative demand and routed most corporate FX requirements to the official window”.

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Still, the renewed supply has eased retail FX pressures, helping compress the parallel market premium.

On the foreign portfolio investment side, the analysts warned that continued currency gains could trigger portfolio rebalancing by foreign investors.

“Nigeria’s carry trade remains one of the most compelling across EM and frontier markets, continuing to attract sizable foreign portfolio inflows. We estimate outstanding FPI positioning at roughly $12.0–$14.0bn.

“Working with the assumption that a significant proportion of the 2025 inflows entered the Nigerian market at a rate of N1,500.00/$, we estimate FX gains of 22.4 per cent on currency alone if the naira strengthens to the midpoint of N1,200.00/$ to N1,250.00/$. Such a gain could potentially increase the risk of foreign portfolio exits, especially considering a likely build-up in uncertainties ahead of the general elections,” said the experts.

Ahead of Monday’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting of the CBN, the analysts noted that the indicators likely to shape the committee’s decision were sending mixed signals.

“On one side, inflation is moderating and short-term rates are converging around 22.0 per cent, which is about 500 bps lower than the MPR of 27.0 per cent. On the flipside, the recent body language of the CBN shows low tolerance for liquidity after the governor stated at the National Economic Conference that the liquidity overhang is a major risk to the stability achieved through recent policy reforms.

“So far this year, the CBN has net-issued N10.9 tn through OMO and has left the SDF rate attractive for banks to deposit with the CBN in a bid to avoid liquidity stoking renewed inflationary pressure. The CBN is also concerned about election-related liquidity, which is expected to become more pronounced in the second half of the year. Furthermore, of the total expected liquidity of N44.2 tn in 2026, over 75.0 per cent is expected in the first half of 2026.

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It stated, “As such, we perceive that the CBN may be inclined towards holding the policy rate constant to signal its concern about liquidity risk while making an adjustment to the asymmetric corridor to align the SDF rate to OMO yields with a view to guarding the attractiveness of OMO and securing banks’ presence as key counterparties to investing FPIs. We see a 60.0 per cent probability of this view panning out and a 40.0 per cent probability of an indicative 50-100 bps rate cut.”

Looking ahead, CardinalStone said the forward-market pricing suggests a weaker currency trajectory later in the year. Six-month non-deliverable forwards indicate a rate near N1,449.96/$ in the early second half, with CardinalStone’s base-case range set at N1,350–1,450/$ for 2026.

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Revenue boom: World Bank faults states’ spending priorities, read full details

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The World Bank has criticised the spending priorities of Nigerian state governments, warning that increased revenues following recent economic reforms have not translated into proportionate investments in education, healthcare and social protection.

The global lender observed that although states had increased spending on essential public services, investments in transport infrastructure had grown considerably faster, even in states with poor human development indicators.

A Senior Economist at the World Bank Nigeria Office, Gloria Joseph-Raji, raised the concerns on Tuesday in Abuja during the launch of BudgIT’s 2026 State of States Report, themed ‘From Allocation to Impact: Rethinking State Spending Priorities.’

She said, “Spending on education, health, and social protection has also risen substantially, but it has not kept pace with the rapid growth in transport infrastructure spending, even in states with weaker human capital outcomes.”

Joseph-Raji explained that the bank’s October Nigeria Development Update, which examined budget implementation reports from all 36 states, found that governments had expanded transport infrastructure and reduced their debt burdens, particularly domestic debt, following increased fiscal allocations.

She attributed the revenue growth to petrol subsidy removal, exchange rate unification and improvements in tax administration since 2023, alongside federal intervention funds and the settlement of longstanding obligations to states.

According to her, the additional resources have enabled states to meet salary obligations and created opportunities for improved public service delivery.

However, she warned that excessive dependence on Federation Account allocations continued to expose state finances to fluctuations in federally shared revenue.

“In 2025, federation transfers accounted for more than three-quarters of revenue in all but a handful of states,” she said.

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She disclosed that federation transfers accounted for 73 per cent of aggregate state revenues between 2021 and 2025, excluding Lagos, while internally generated revenue was sufficient to cover recurrent expenditure in only two states.

Joseph-Raji noted that states received 26.72 per cent of net Federation Account revenues and now received 55 per cent of Value Added Tax revenue under the revised sharing formula.

Meanwhile, BudgIT’s Country Director, Vahyala Kwaga, disclosed that aggregate revenue across the 34 states covered in its comparative analysis rose from N4.99tn in 2022 to N15.53tn in 2025, representing an increase of N10.54tn.

He said FAAC allocations increased by more than 232 per cent, from N3.43tn to N11.38tn during the period.

Despite the revenue growth, Kwaga disclosed that the states had spent only N8.60tn, representing 24.4 per cent of their combined N35.22tn approved budgets, by June 2026.

“We must also examine how effectively they deploy the resources available to them, what they prioritise and whether their spending is delivering the outcomes that citizens need,” he said.

He explained that BudgIT had revised its assessment methodology to place greater emphasis on spending in education, healthcare, agriculture, water and sanitation, alongside revenue performance and debt sustainability.

Presenting the report, BudgIT’s Head of Research and Policy Advisory, Adejoke Akinbode, disclosed that total debt across the 35 states assessed increased by 10.41 per cent, from N10.57tn in 2024 to N11.67tn in 2025.

She identified Lagos as the most indebted state, with N2.9tn, while Osun spent N100.17bn servicing debt, equivalent to 28.6 per cent of its revenue.

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Akinbode said Lagos ranked first in overall fiscal sustainability, followed by Enugu, Bayelsa, Delta and Kebbi, while Cross River ranked last. Rivers was excluded because of inadequate fiscal data.

She urged states to reduce administrative costs, strengthen revenue collection and link borrowing to productive investments.

In her keynote address, an economist and lecturer at Amadeus University, Abia State, Dr Iboro Nelson, argued that rising government revenues had failed to compensate households for the economic hardship associated with recent reforms.

She disclosed that states collectively budgeted N1.32tn for healthcare in 2024 but spent N816.64bn, while education expenditure stood at N1.61tn against N2.41tn budgeted.

According to her, average annual spending per resident amounted to N3,483 on healthcare and N6,981 on education, equivalent to approximately N290 and N582 monthly, respectively.

“This is actually not fiscal space, but fiscal illusion,” she said.

Nelson blamed weak budget implementation, unrealistic expenditure projections, overlapping projects and excessive recurrent costs for the limited developmental impact of rising allocations.

Also speaking, a Programme Manager at the Ford Foundation’s West Africa Office, Joy Ehinor-Esezobor, urged governments to measure fiscal success by improvements in citizens’ lives rather than revenue growth or rankings.

“The ultimate measure of success should not simply be a better fiscal ranking, but better services and improved living conditions,” she said.

The programme is seeking to establish a framework for developing Nigeria’s underutilised small hydropower resources through private investment and public-private partnerships.

Source: punchng.com

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Otti woos US investors to Abia

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Governor Alex Otti of Abia State has concluded plans to bring investors, business leaders, policymakers, development partners, diplomatic representatives and entrepreneurs to the state to explore investment opportunities and strengthen commercial relations between Africa and the United States.

In a statement he signed and issued to newsmen on Sunday, the Chief of Staff to the Governor, Pastor Caleb Ajagba, disclosed that the Abia State Government had unveiled plans to attract American and other international investors to the state through the 2026 edition of the African Diaspora Conference and Expo, AFRICANDO, scheduled for this month.

Ajagba said, “AFRICANDO is a platform for translating international economic engagement into concrete investments and commercial partnerships. The state government is working with the organisers to ensure that the conference goes beyond speeches and networking to facilitate transactions, business agreements and sustainable investment.”

According to him, the 2026 edition, with the theme, “Deepening U.S.–Africa Commercial Ties in the Era of AfCFTA,” would connect investment opportunities in Abia and other African markets with American capital, technology, expertise and international distribution networks.

He added, “The African Continental Free Trade Area, AfCFTA, presents opportunities for African businesses to expand beyond their domestic markets, while international partnerships could help them improve production capacity and competitiveness.

“Abia is strategically positioned to benefit from the initiative because of its manufacturing and entrepreneurial base, particularly in Aba, which is known for indigenous manufacturing, commerce and craftsmanship.”

Ajagba added that Otti’s administration “is investing in infrastructure, strengthening public institutions and improving the business environment to position the state as a destination for private investment.”

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He explained that international delegates and prospective investors would be encouraged not only to attend conference sessions but also to visit strategic economic locations, manufacturing clusters, enterprises and government-backed projects to assess investment opportunities firsthand.

He said the approach was intended to give participants a practical understanding of the state’s economic potential and create opportunities for direct engagement with local businesses and relevant government agencies.

“AFRICANDO 2026 is not exclusively an Abia event. It is an international economic platform being hosted in Abia State,” he continued.

He listed agriculture and agro-processing, manufacturing, consumer goods, energy, financial services, healthcare, transportation and logistics, science and technology, artificial intelligence and emerging technologies among the sectors expected to receive attention.

A major feature of the conference, he said, would be a structured Deal Room and Investment Marketplace, where investment-ready projects from Abia and participating businesses would be presented to prospective investors.

Source: punchng.com

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Personal loans hit new high N1.99tn

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Nigerians’ outstanding personal loans increased by an estimated N58.5bn in the second quarter of 2026, reaching N1.99tn at the end of June, as households faced persistent inflationary pressures and high borrowing costs.

An analysis by The PUNCH of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Second Quarter 2026 Economic Report showed that personal loans rose by 3.03 per cent from approximately N1.93tn recorded at the end of March.

The development came as total consumer credit increased by 3.26 per cent to N3.17tn from N3.07tn in the preceding quarter, representing an increase of about N100bn within three months.

The CBN stated, “Consumer credit outstanding increased by 3.26 per cent to N3.17tn, from N3.07tn in the preceding quarter. The increase reflected growth in both retail and personal loans, which rose by 4.10 per cent and 3.03 per cent, respectively.”

According to the report, personal loans accounted for 62.87 per cent of total consumer credit, while retail loans constituted the remaining 37.13 per cent.

This means that nearly N63 out of every N100 owed by consumers to financial institutions was classified as personal borrowing, highlighting its dominance in the consumer credit market.

Retail loans also increased by approximately N46.5bn to N1.18tn at the end of June, compared with an estimated N1.13tn in March, representing quarterly growth of 4.10 per cent.

Although retail loans recorded a faster percentage increase, personal loans contributed more to the outstanding stock of consumer credit.

The increase in personal borrowing occurred amid renewed inflationary pressures, which continued to affect household purchasing power.

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The CBN reported that headline inflation rose to 15.91 per cent in June 2026 from 15.38 per cent in March, reflecting increases in the prices of essential goods and services.

The report attributed the development largely to higher energy and commodity prices associated with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which increased production and transportation costs.

These conditions placed additional pressure on household expenditure, particularly for consumers whose incomes had not increased sufficiently to offset rising prices.

However, the report did not establish whether the increase in personal loans was driven primarily by household financial difficulties, consumption needs or improved access to credit.

The growth in consumer borrowing also occurred despite elevated lending rates in the banking sector.

 

 

According to the CBN, the average prime lending rate declined marginally to 19.01 per cent in Q2 from 19.37 per cent in the preceding quarter.

In contrast, the maximum lending rate increased slightly to 34.37 per cent from 34.34 per cent, indicating that borrowing remained expensive for some categories of bank customers.

Although these rates reflect broader banking sector lending conditions rather than specific personal loan charges, they provide an indication of the financing environment confronting borrowers.

A recent report ‘Enhancing Financial Inclusion & Advancement’ noted that four in every 10 Nigerians borrowing from formal financial institutions now take loans mainly for consumption and coping needs, as rising financial pressures increasingly push credit away from productive activities.

The ‘2026 Access to Financial Services in Nigeria Survey’ revealed that 40.8 per cent of formal borrowers used loans for coping and consumption, up sharply from 31.7 per cent in 2023.

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The 9.1 percentage-point increase made coping and consumption the largest purpose of formal credit, overtaking productive enterprise borrowing, which fell from 40.2 per cent to 34.3 per cent during the same period.

Borrowing for household assets also declined from 25.2 per cent to 23.4 per cent. The report warned, “Coping/consumption purposes rose from 31.7 per cent to 40.8 per cent; productive purpose fell from 40.2 per cent to 34.3 per cent. We need to ensure that credit builds productive capacity and does not produce distress.”

Formal credit use increased from six per cent of adults in 2023 to 10 per cent in 2026, with about 11.9 million Nigerians borrowing from regulated providers. When informal sources were included, 36 per cent of adults had access to some form of credit.

Credit use among informally employed Nigerians tripled from five per cent to 15 per cent, while borrowing among people aged 18 to 35 rose from four per cent to 10 per cent. Business owners recorded an increase from four per cent to 10 per cent, while farmers rose from two per cent to six per cent.

Source: punchng.com

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