The Federal Government borrowed N2.69tn from the domestic bond market in the first quarter of 2026, as strong investor demand continued to drive subscriptions above offer levels despite tighter allotments, an analysis of Debt Management Office auction results has shown.
Data from the DMO for January, February, and March 2026 indicated that the total was raised through a combination of competitive and non-competitive allotments across the three months.
The figures showed that the government offered N2.45tn worth of bonds in the quarter, while investors submitted subscriptions totalling N5.88tn. Out of this, about 45.64 per cent was allotted, indicating that less than half of the total bids were accepted.
This also means that total subscriptions were about 240.14 per cent of the amount offered, reflecting a strong oversubscription level of more than two times the offer size. On a strictly competitive basis, the allotment ratio was slightly lower at about 43.42 per cent.
A year-on-year comparison showed that the government significantly increased its borrowing from the bond market. In the first quarter of 2025, total allotment stood at about N1.94tn, compared to N2.69tn in the same period of 2026, representing an increase of N750.08bn or 38.76 per cent.
Total subscriptions rose from N2.83tn in 2025 to N5.88tn in 2026, indicating a jump of N3.05tn or 107.71 per cent, while the amount offered increased from N1.10tn to N2.45tn.
Despite the stronger demand, the proportion of subscriptions accepted declined from about 68.32 per cent in the first quarter of 2025 to 45.64 per cent in 2026, suggesting a more cautious approach to borrowing.
A breakdown of the 2026 figures showed that the bulk of the borrowing occurred in January. In January 2026, the government offered N900bn and received subscriptions of N2.25tn, with total allotment, including non-competitive allotments, standing at N1.68tn. This represented about 74.37 per cent of subscriptions and about 186.16 per cent of the amount offered.
Compared to January 2025, when N601.04bn was allotted, the January 2026 figure was higher by N1.07tn, representing a 178.75 per cent increase. Subscriptions also rose significantly from N669.94bn in January 2025.
In February 2026, the government offered N800bn and recorded subscriptions of N2.70tn, the highest monthly subscription in the quarter. However, only N524.28bn was allotted.
This translated to a subscription rate of about 337.40 per cent, while only 19.42 per cent of bids were accepted, indicating a wide gap between investor demand and actual borrowing.
Year-on-year, February 2026 recorded stronger demand but lower borrowing compared to February 2025, when N910.39bn was allotted from subscriptions of N1.63tn. This represents a decline of N386.11bn or 42.41 per cent in allotment despite higher subscriptions.
In March 2026, the government offered N750bn, received subscriptions of N931.50bn, and allotted N485.50bn. This represented a subscription rate of about 124.20 per cent, with about 52.12 per cent of subscriptions accepted.
Compared to March 2025, when total allotment stood at N423.68bn, the March 2026 figure reflected an increase of N61.82bn or 14.59 per cent.
Month-on-month analysis showed that the offer size declined steadily from N900bn in January to N800bn in February and N750bn in March. However, subscriptions rose from N2.25tn in January to N2.70tn in February before dropping sharply to N931.50bn in March.
Similarly, total allotment fell from N1.68tn in January to N524.28bn in February and further to N485.50bn in March, indicating that borrowing was heavily concentrated in the first month of the quarter.
The auction results also showed that marginal rates declined significantly compared to the corresponding period of 2025, although there was a slight increase in March 2026.
In January 2026, marginal rates ranged between 17.50 per cent and 17.62 per cent, compared to between 21.79 per cent and 22.60 per cent in January 2025, indicating a sharp drop in borrowing costs.
In February 2026, rates declined further to a range of 15.50 per cent to 15.74 per cent, compared to about 19.20 per cent to 19.33 per cent in February 2025, showing a reduction of about 3.5 to 3.8 percentage points.
However, in March 2026, marginal rates rose slightly to between 16.00 per cent and 16.64 per cent. Despite this increase, rates remained below March 2025 levels, which ranged from 19.00 per cent to 19.99 per cent.
Overall, the data showed that while borrowing costs increased slightly towards the end of the quarter, they remained significantly lower than the levels recorded in the same period of 2025.
The trend suggests that the Federal Government benefited from improved market conditions and strong investor demand, even as it maintained a conservative stance on the volume of bids accepted during the period.
The PUNCH earlier reported that the Federal Government planned to raise N700bn from the domestic bond market in April 2026, extending a gradual reduction in offer size as it continues to navigate elevated borrowing costs.
Details from the April 2026 Federal Government of Nigeria Bond Offer Circular issued by the Debt Management Office showed that the auction is scheduled for April 27, with settlement on April 29.
The issuance will be executed through the re-opening of existing instruments across three maturities, a strategy aimed at improving liquidity in benchmark securities.
The PUNCH earlier reported that the Federal Government’s domestic borrowings from financial market operators rose sharply in 2025 despite high interest rates, widening the gap between public and private sector access to credit.
A renowned economist and Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, earlier warned that rising Federal Government borrowing from the domestic financial system is increasingly crowding out the private sector, as banks favour low-risk, high-yield government securities over lending to businesses.
“The increase in credit to the government can be attributed to a number of factors. The government has been raising money to finance the deficit. So this financing of the deficit has led to the issuance of bonds, treasury bills, and so on, which banks also buy. The rate is also very attractive, and it’s more attractive to them than lending to the real sector,” Yusuf said. He further urged the government to moderate its borrowing.
