Crude oil prices fell on Monday on optimism over US-Iran talks, with mediators flagging a “roadmap” to a final agreement, while equities were mixed.
After a meeting planned for Friday was cancelled owing to fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, the negotiations finally got underway on Sunday in Switzerland with teams led by US Vice President JD Vance and Iran’s Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
Traders remain in buoyant mood after news that the two foes had paused their conflict, which had sent energy costs soaring and stoked inflation, sending shivers through the global economy.
There were initial jitters following reports that Iran had called off the talks over US President Donald Trump’s threat to carry out more strikes if Hezbollah kept attacking Israel, but mediators Pakistan and Qatar said the talks took place in “a positive and constructive atmosphere”.
The mood improved as Qatar and Pakistan announced progress in the talks, which aim to address Tehran’s nuclear programme and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of oil and gas passes.
The two mediators said the United States and Iran agreed to set up a “communication line” to avoid incidents in the crucial waterway, and “the High Level Committee has agreed upon a roadmap towards reaching a final deal within 60 days, laying the foundation for the immediate commencement of further technical talks”.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on X that “mediation has delivered major progress to end the Lebanon War.”
Both main oil contracts fell in afternoon Asian trade, with Brent down more than one per cent.
Stock markets were mixed after a broadly positive start.
Tokyo, Seoul and Taipei were boosted by tech firms again, while there were also advances in Shanghai, Mumbai and Bangkok.
But Hong Kong, Sydney, Singapore, Wellington, Manila and Jakarta fell.
London, Paris and Frankfurt opened higher.
“Following the positive response last week to reports of a US-Iran ceasefire, markets are likely to open with a cautious tone to start the new week as it remains clear that the situation in the Middle East remains fragile,” said National Australia Bank’s Skye Masters.
“The dollar is likely to remain supported, the oil price could swing either way, but at current levels the risk is for a lift higher.”
Sterling extended after suffering a sell-off following Thursday’s by-election win for UK Labour politician Andy Burnham, which ramped up expectations he will oust beleaguered Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
The embattled premier “is expected to announce on Monday that he will step down as prime minister after overwhelming pressure from Labour MPs to make way for Andy Burnham”, Britain’s Guardian newspaper said.
Investors were nervous that Burnham could introduce fresh spending plans that would add to the country’s already huge debt pile.
West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.6 per cent at $75.37 a barrel, Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 1.7 per cent at $79.19 a barrel, Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 1.6 per cent at 72,353.96 (close).
Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.4 per cent at 23,822.25, Shanghai – Composite: UP 1.8 per cent at 4,163.10 (close)
Seoul – Kospi: UP 0.7 per cent at 9,114.55 (close), London – FTSE 100: UP 0.1 per cent at 10,368.72, Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1457 from $1.1464 on Friday.
Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3210 from $1.3218, Dollar/yen: UP at 161.72 yen from 161.27 yen, Euro/pound: DOWN at 86.72 pence from 86.73 pence.
