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Petrol price drop in doubt after Hormuz disruption

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The decision by Iran to reclose the Strait of Hormuz has dampened hopes that fuel prices would crash in Nigeria.

The Strait of Hormuz was opened on Friday following a ceasefire deal between Iran and the United States. But barely 24 hours later, Iran reclosed the strait, calling the decision a response to a continued blockade of its ports by the United States.

The Iranian military on Saturday said control of the strategic waterway, through which 20 per cent of globally traded oil transits, had “returned to its previous state”, with reports saying Iranian gunboats fired at a merchant vessel as it attempted to cross.

Fuel marketers had earlier projected that petrol prices could drop from the current N1,250 to about N900 when the strait was opened on Friday.

The spokesman of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria, Joseph Obele, said on Friday that the prices of crude oil had crashed following the reopening of the strait.

Obele recalled that petrol was around N800 before February 28, when the crisis started, expressing optimism that a sharp reduction should be expected if the development had been sustained.

“With the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Nigerians should expect a very significant reduction in petrol prices. Petrol will fall below N1,000 by next week, probably to N900 per litre. Don’t forget that the product was N800+ before the Middle East crisis. Now that the war is over, we should be expecting a return to that price regime,” he said on Friday.

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But on Sunday, Obele told our correspondent that the reclosure of the Hormuz had dashed hopes of a price drop projection. Obele said the status quo would remain at the moment, pending when both Iran and the US agree on a lasting ceasefire.

President Donald Trump said Sunday that Iran had violated the ceasefire agreement with the US by attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and he repeated threats to attack Iranian energy infrastructure unless it accepts a deal to end the war.

Our correspondent observed, however, that there has not been a major oil price surge since Saturday when the strait was reclosed by Iran. According to oilprice.com, Brent traded at $90 per barrel on Sunday, up from $88 before the Hormuz Strait reclosure. Recall that Brent was $95 as of Friday morning.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said Sunday that Iran had violated the ceasefire agreement with the US by attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz, as he repeated threats to attack Iranian energy infrastructure unless it accepts a deal to end the war.

“Iran decided to fire bullets yesterday in the Strait of Hormuz — a total violation of our ceasefire agreement!” he posted on Truth Social. “That wasn’t nice, was it?”

“We’re offering a very fair and reasonable deal, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single power plant and every single bridge in Iran,” he continued. “No more Mr Nice Guy!” he said.

Trump disclosed that negotiators would arrive on Monday evening in Islamabad, Pakistan, which last weekend hosted direct talks between the two sides, with the current two-week ceasefire set to end on Wednesday.

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FG tells marketers to reflect global oil price drop in petrol prices

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Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Sen. Heineken Lokpobiri, has directed petroleum marketers to immediately reflect the recent decline in global oil prices by reducing the pump prices of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) and other petroleum products.

Lokpobiri gave the directive at the 2026 Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) General Counsel and Legal Advisers Forum on Monday in Abuja.

The forum is themed “Beyond Compliance Certainty and Investment Confidence in Nigeria’s Petroleum Sector.”

Lokpobiri said that with the de-escalation of tensions between Iran and the United States, there was an expectation that the prices of PMS and other petroleum products would be adjusted downward accordingly.

He expressed concern that the anticipated reduction had yet to be reflected at the pumps, stressing that while market forces under the deregulated regime would ultimately restore price equilibrium, marketers should not exploit the situation to make excessive profits.

The minister said the regulator had a statutory responsibility to ensure that deregulation did not become an avenue for profiteering, adding that this must be carried out in line with the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA 2021).

“For too long, the dominant question in our regulatory conversations has been: are operators complying? That question matters. It will always matter. But it is no longer sufficient.

“The more consequential question today is this: are our regulatory authorities doing their job? Is it clear, consistent and predictable enough to give investors the confidence they need to commit capital, not just for one cycle, but for the long term?

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“Compliance is the foundation. Regulatory certainty is the ceiling we must now be building toward,” he said.

Lokpobiri, while urging marketers to comply with the principles of fair pricing to ensure that consumers benefit from the prevailing market realities, urged regulators to move beyond compliance by promoting regulatory certainty to attracting long-term investments.

“The sector is now fully deregulated, a bold reform that President Bola Tinubu had the courage to implement. That decision paved way for the operationalisation of the Dangote Refinery and other refinery projects currently underway.

“It also ensured that artificial scarcity has become a thing of the past.

“You can attest to the fact that since 2023 there has been availability of products in country even with the recent challenges posed by the US-Israeli /Iranian conflict.

“Beyond allowing prices to be determined by market forces, the question is: what is the regulator doing to ensure that consumers receive the correct quantity of product?

“When someone pays for 10 litres of PMS, they should receive exactly 10 litres, not less,” he warned.

Lokpobiri said while compliance with regulations remained fundamental, investors were increasingly interested in jurisdictions with clear, consistent and predictable regulatory frameworks.

He described general counsel as strategic partners whose responsibilities extend beyond interpreting laws to shaping investment decisions, improving regulatory design and supporting national development.

According to him, legal advisers should provide constructive feedback whenever regulations or guidelines create uncertainty that could discourage investment.

He said Nigeria’s petroleum sector was entering a new phase characterised by expanding domestic refining capacity, increased private sector participation and emerging opportunities across the midstream and downstream segments.

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According to him, attracting investments will require policy consistency, transparent regulation, efficient dispute resolution and strong collaboration among government, regulators, industry operators and legal practitioners.

He expressed confidence that the recommendations from the forum would contribute to improving governance, regulatory certainty and investment confidence in Nigeria’s petroleum sector. (NAN)

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Olodo uprising: Tinubu aide faults critics of First Lady’s Akara, Kuli kuli comment

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The Special Assistant to President Bola Tinubu on Social Media, Dada Olusegun, has defended First Lady Oluremi Tinubu’s recent empowerment of micro-traders, saying criticisms of the initiative are driven by ignorance of her record and the role of Nigeria’s informal economy.

In a statement shared on Monday, Olusegun described the backlash over the First Lady’s focus on traders such as akara and kulikuli sellers as a “performative circus of selective amnesia.”

He argued that critics had ignored the numerous interventions carried out by the Renewed Hope Initiative across healthcare, women’s empowerment, support for military widows and persons living with disabilities.

The First Lady, Senator Oluremi Tinubu
The First Lady of Nigeria, Senator Oluremi Tinubu

According to him, the First Lady’s interventions extend beyond petty traders, citing her donation of ₦1bn to the National Cancer Fund for cervical cancer screening and another ₦1bn for tuberculosis diagnostic equipment in Abuja in 2025.

He also referenced the disbursement of ₦250,000 each to 1,709 widows and orphans of fallen military personnel in 2023, as well as ₦200,000 business grants to persons living with disabilities across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.

Olusegun further highlighted the Renewed Hope Initiative’s partnership with the Tony Elumelu Foundation, which targeted 18,500 women nationwide with ₦50,000 grants and the distribution of equipment, including industrial grinding machines, freezers and generators.

He further criticised what he described as an “Olodo uprising” on social media, accusing critics of reacting to trends without researching the facts.

“This entire controversy perfectly mirrors what is now happening with the broader ‘Olodo uprising” across our social platforms. We live in an era where people jump on trending hashtags and soundbites without dedicating a single minute to researching context. Memes are manufactured in seconds; accurate history takes time to read.

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“When the critics are done making their superficial memes, writing cynical captions, and circulating ignorant narratives, the reality on the ground will remain unchanged. They would be better off advising their constituents to find credible means to key into these ongoing government initiatives,” he stated.

He maintained that empowering small-scale traders should not be viewed as “weaponising poverty.”

“According to various economic metrics, the informal sector contributes over 50 per cent of Nigeria’s GDP and accounts for over 80 per cent of employment. The akara fryer, the kulikuli processor, and the petty trader are not just marginal actors; they are the literal shock absorbers of our micro-economy.

“When you give a micro-grant or operational tools to an akara seller, you are not validating poverty; you are reducing immediate operational capital friction, securing food chains at the grassroots, and expanding household income. Mocking these initiatives as ‘petty’ shows a deep-seated contempt for the actual working class of Nigeria,” he said.

Olusegun also defended the political value of grassroots empowerment, saying such interventions create trust among beneficiaries.

He cited the TraderMoni and MarketMoni programmes introduced during former President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration under then Vice President Yemi Osinbajo as examples of initiatives that directly impacted market traders.

“The opposition often wonders why the poorest segments of the population continually familiarise themselves with the All Progressives Congress during elections. The answer is simple: the party meets them at their point of immediate need,” he said.

Olusegun added that Tinubu’s record as former First Lady of Lagos State, a three-term senator and now First Lady of the Federation showed a consistent commitment to structured empowerment programmes.

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“She will not be distracted by digital static from doing what she has mastered over decades: empowering the poorest among us, one structured intervention at a time,” he said.

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Dangote refinery imports first UAE crude cargoes

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The Dangote Refinery has purchased two cargoes of crude oil from the United Arab Emirates, marking its first-ever procurement of Middle Eastern crude as it expands its feedstock sources amid persistent domestic supply constraints.

According to a report by S&P Global Commodity Insights, the two cargoes will be the first sourced by the 700,000-barrels-per-day refinery from any Middle Eastern supplier, signalling a shift from its traditional reliance on Nigerian, African, and United States crude grades.

The report said the purchases followed the resumption of oil exports from the Middle East after the United States and Iran reached an interim peace agreement that restored confidence in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The refinery, designed primarily to process Nigeria’s light sweet crude, has increasingly diversified its crude slate as operations ramp up. S&P Global reported that an agreement between the refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company had guaranteed the supply of between 13 and 15 cargoes of Nigerian crude monthly in naira, helping the refinery reduce its foreign exchange exposure.

However, the arrangement has faced challenges due to inadequate crude availability and operational issues at export terminals. According to the report, Dangote Refinery Chief Executive Officer David Bird had previously disclosed that these constraints had compelled the company to seek additional crude sources outside Nigeria.

The report added that the refinery’s expansion plans would further increase its crude requirements. Dangote plans to double the refinery’s processing capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by the end of 2028, a level that would enable it to process about 80 per cent of Nigeria’s recent crude oil production in a single day.

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Speaking earlier this year, Bird said the refinery intended to increase the share of heavier crude grades in its feedstock mix. “We definitely want to heavy up the barrel,” Bird said in April.

He added, “We will be in the crude blending game. So you can easily imagine at 1.4 million b/d we could process 30 per cent Middle Eastern grades on each train.”

According to S&P Global, the refinery has been broadening the range of crude grades it processes as part of its ambition to operate as a fully merchant refinery. The report noted that in 2025, about 70 per cent of the refinery’s crude imports came from Nigeria, while 24 per cent originated from the United States.

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