As Nigeria marks Democracy Day today, political analysts have expressed differing views on the current state of insecurity across the country.

In recent months, national discourse on insecurity has dominated both traditional and social media platforms, raising concerns about the security situation and its potential impact on President Bola Tinubu’s chances of securing re-election in 2027.

A political analyst, Kabiru Ojo, has criticised the state of security in Nigeria under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, saying the situation has worsened over the past three years.

Ojo revealed this in an exclusive interview .

He said insecurity, which was previously concentrated in a few states, has now spread across the country.

“I will say the security situation in Nigeria has gone from bad to worse. It is getting worse day by day,” he said.

He explained that before the current administration, kidnapping and banditry were mostly limited to states like Zamfara and parts of the North-East, but have now spread to many parts of the country, including the Federal Capital Territory.

“Before Tinubu took over, these issues were mostly in some states like Zamfara and Maiduguri, but now it has spread to all regions. It has even entered Abuja,” he said.

He cited recent incidents, including the reported abduction of a student on the way to write WAEC examinations in Abuja, as well as similar cases in Kogi and Kwara states.

“Just recently, a student going to write WAEC in Abuja was abducted. The same thing happened in Kogi. Kwara used to be peaceful, but now there are abductions and killings,” he said.

Ojo also said rural communities have been badly affected, with many residents forced to flee their homes due to fear of attacks.

“Rural communities are not safe. People are running away from their homes because of bandits. Attacks are happening frequently, and nobody is being caught,” he said.

He accused the government of failing to take decisive action, claiming that citizens are increasingly being left to protect themselves.

“People are now being advised to defend themselves. Even clerics and ordinary citizens are telling people to protect themselves because the government is not doing enough,” he said.

Matawalle appointment first indicator Tinubu not ready to tackle insecurity

While criticizing President Tinubu’s approach to tackling insecurity, Ojo said the appointment of former Zamfara State Governor, Bello Matawalle as the state minister of defense, has raised serious doubts about the government’s commitment to addressing the crisis.

He argued that the decision sends a wrong signal at a time Nigerians are facing widespread kidnappings and banditry.

“Appointing Matawalle raises doubts about the fight against insecurity,” he said.

He questioned the rationale behind the appointment.

He noted that Matawalle’s tenure as governor of Zamfara State was widely associated with insecurity challenges, which eventually led to his defeat at the polls.

“Zamfara was one of the worst-hit states during his time, and the people voted him out because of insecurity,” he said.

Ojo argued that bringing him into a key security role shows that the government may not be serious about resolving the insecurity it inherited.

“This shows that Tinubu is not ready to solve the insecurity he inherited,” he said.

He further referenced the Obasanjo-Atiku era, claiming that firm directives were once given to security agencies to tackle emerging threats quickly.

“Atiku told Obasanjo that when Boko Haram was emerging, there was a clear instruction to security agencies to act within a time frame and eliminate the threat,” he said.

Ojo added that he had also heard similar suggestions being made in the current national discourse, including from religious leaders.

“Even Pastor Adeboye made similar suggestions that government should give a 90-day ultimatum to dislodge bandits and insurgents,” he said.

He, however, lamented that such proposals are not being implemented under the current administration, which he believes has not shown enough urgency.

“But Mr President will not listen because of politics and interest,” he said

Ojo also accused the government of focusing more on political survival than on security reforms, suggesting that more urgency is being placed on politics than on protecting lives.

“If the same energy being used for politics is used to tackle insecurity, Nigeria would be safer,” he said.

He rated the government low on security performance, insisting that the current approach has failed to produce meaningful results.

“If I am to score them on security, I will give them 2 out of 10. It is a complete failure,” he added.

Ojo expressed deep concern that the security situation in Nigeria may not see any major improvement before the end of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s tenure.

He said that although the government may attempt to reduce attacks, the scale of the crisis has already gone beyond quick fixes.

“Before the end of Tinubu’s administration, he will try to do his best to reduce insecurity, but I need to be sincere with you, the damage has been done,” he said.

“The insecurity in Nigeria has gone viral to a different dimension,” he added.

He argued that kidnapping and banditry have now become more organised and financially driven, making the problem even more difficult to eliminate.

“They have made it a lucrative business,” he said.

While acknowledging that some efforts may be made, he insisted that the impact would not be significant enough to fully restore peace before the end of the current administration.

Tinubu era seeing quicker hostage recoveries – Keshinro

Another activist, Muhammad B. Keshinro, said that while insecurity remains a major challenge in Nigeria, there has been a noticeable improvement in the speed of rescue operations under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Keshinro revealed this in an exclusive interview .

He said that although insecurity has not been completely eliminated, it has been considerably contained compared to previous years.

“After three years in office, insecurity has been considerably contained, not erased,” he said.

He explained that his assessment is based on the speed at which security forces now respond to high-profile kidnapping cases, noting that several victims have been rescued faster than in the past.

“The comparison I’m making is specifically about high-profile rescue outcomes. We are seeing quicker recoveries,” he said.

He cited the March 2024 abduction of schoolchildren in Kuriga, Kaduna State, as a key example.

According to him, the incident, which drew national attention, was handled with urgency by the authorities.

“President Tinubu ordered security agencies to prioritise the rescue operation immediately, and within about 17 days, 137 hostages were rescued,” he said.

He noted that the outcome was widely seen as faster compared to previous incidents such as the 2014 Chibok schoolgirls’ abduction, where many victims remained in captivity for years.

Keshinro also pointed to other rescue operations, including the recovery of 16 Almajiri pupils in Sokoto State during the same period, as well as the rescue of 38 worshippers abducted in Kwara State in November 2025.

“In the Kwara case, all 38 victims were freed within days of the abduction,” he said.

He further mentioned the rescue of 24 schoolgirls abducted from a boarding school in Kebbi State.

He described it as another example of improved response by security forces.

According to him, the military has also recorded broader successes in counterinsurgency operations, including the rescue of hundreds of abducted persons in Borno State.

“There have been larger operations where about 360 abducted persons were rescued from terrorist captivity,” he added.

Comparing the current administration with that of former President Muhammadu Buhari, Keshinro said both governments recorded some successes, but noted differences in response time.

“Under Buhari, there were major recoveries, including some Chibok girls and Dapchi students, but many victims stayed long in captivity and kidnappings continued,” he said.

“Under Tinubu, security challenges remain and kidnappings have not disappeared, but several major abductions have been followed by relatively rapid rescue operations,” he added.

Despite the improvements, the analyst stressed that insecurity is still a serious concern, with reports of kidnappings and bandit attacks continuing in some parts of the country.

“It is important to note that insecurity is still a major issue. The problem has not been eliminated,” he said.

He, however, maintained that the speed of response in recent high-profile cases shows some level of progress.

“From the standpoint of speed of response, the Kuriga rescue in particular shows a more rapid recovery compared to what we saw in the past,” he said.

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