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Nigeria’s oil reserves no longer enough to win investors – PENGASSAN

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Nigeria may possess one of Africa’s largest hydrocarbon endowments, but the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria has warned that the country can no longer rely on the sheer size of its oil and gas reserves to win the increasingly competitive battle for global investment capital.

PUNCH Online reports that Nigeria has about 37.01 billion barrels of proven oil and condensate reserves and 215.19 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves, making it one of Africa’s most resource-rich petroleum countries.

The union said Nigeria was competing with other oil-producing jurisdictions for a limited pool of global capital and must therefore offer investors competitive fiscal and commercial terms, improved security, predictable regulations and efficient project execution.

This was contained in a communiqué issued on Friday at the end of the three-day 5th PENGASSAN Energy and Labour Summit, held in Abuja from August 19 to 21, 2026.

The communiqué was jointly signed by the PENGASSAN President, Festus Osifo, and the General Secretary, Jerry Amah.

The summit, with the theme, “Strengthening Regulatory Frameworks as a Catalyst for Stability and Growth in Nigeria’s Oil and Gas Industry,” brought together government officials, regulators, oil companies, investors, organised labour and other industry stakeholders.

It focused on the regulatory, commercial and labour conditions required to attract investment, raise production and sustain employment in Nigeria’s petroleum industry.

The union said, “The Summit recognised the direct relationship between regulatory certainty, investment, projects, production, government revenue and sustainable employment.

“Nigeria competes with other jurisdictions for finite global capital and cannot rely solely on the size of its hydrocarbon resources to attract investment. The country must offer competitive fiscal and commercial terms, security, predictable regulation and efficient project execution.”

See also  30 months after subsidy removal, FG spends N30.6tn, saves N15.8tn

PENGASSAN urged the Federal Government and petroleum regulators to consolidate recent reforms and incentives that had stimulated renewed investments and Final Investment Decisions, stressing that Nigeria must remain internationally competitive to attract long-term energy capital.

The warning comes as Nigeria continues efforts to reverse years of declining investment and production in its oil and gas sector. Although the Petroleum Industry Act, signed into law in 2021, was expected to provide a clearer legal and commercial framework, industry stakeholders have continued to raise concerns about regulatory uncertainty, policy changes, approval delays, security challenges and the high cost of operating in the country.

PENGASSAN acknowledged the PIA as a major milestone but argued that the existence of legislation alone was insufficient to attract the long-term capital required for multi-billion-dollar petroleum projects.

“The long-term capital required for oil and gas development depends not only on the existence of laws and regulations, but on their predictability, durability, transparency and consistent application,” the union said.

It consequently called for greater stability in Nigeria’s fiscal and regulatory environment, urging government institutions to avoid abrupt policy changes and ensure adequate consultation with industry stakeholders before introducing major changes.

The union also demanded that the recent executive orders issued by President Bola Tinubu to improve investment conditions in the petroleum sector should be transmitted to the National Assembly as an executive bill to amend the PIA.

It said, “The recent ‘Executive orders’ issued by the President and Commander-in-Chief should be submitted to the National Assembly as an executive bill to amend the PIA. This should be transparently done, and all stakeholders in the industry must be carried along.”

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The union argued that incorporating the reforms into the petroleum law would provide greater certainty and durability for investors whose projects often require billions of dollars and several years to develop.

PENGASSAN further urged the government to rehabilitate and expand critical energy infrastructure while addressing insecurity and other challenges that increase investment risks and operating costs.

It stated, “They should also prioritise the rehabilitation and development of critical energy infrastructure and address wider issues, including security and other factors that increase the risks and costs associated with investment.”

The union called for what it described as smarter and outcome-driven regulation, supported by digitalisation, clear timelines and faster approvals.

According to the communiqué, “Regulatory effectiveness should ultimately be measured by its ability to facilitate responsible investment, increase production, generate revenue, protect workers and create sustainable national value.”

The summit also welcomed the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission’s commitment to continually review its regulations and maintain transparent and time-bound licensing processes.

Beyond crude oil, PENGASSAN said Nigeria must urgently convert its vast gas reserves into industrial and economic value.

The union noted that Nigeria has more than 215 trillion cubic feet of proven gas reserves but continues to struggle with inadequate infrastructure, commercially sustainable pricing, bankable offtake arrangements and creditworthy customers.

It called for an integrated approach covering upstream gas supply, processing facilities, pipelines, storage and infrastructure for LNG, LPG and CNG.

The union also pushed for accelerated gas utilisation in power generation, manufacturing, transportation, fertiliser production, petrochemicals and domestic cooking, while reducing gas flaring and methane emissions.

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On refining, the union urged sustained policies to expand domestic processing capacity and reduce the economic inefficiency of exporting crude oil while importing refined petroleum products.

It specifically stressed the need to protect investments in domestic refineries, including the Dangote Refinery and Waltersmith refinery, while encouraging greater value addition through petrochemicals and gas processing.

On the industry’s broader outlook, PENGASSAN said Nigeria’s fundamental problem was not a shortage of resources, laws or human capacity but the failure to convert these advantages into bankable projects and measurable outcomes.

“The Summit observed that Nigeria already possesses significant resources, laws, institutions, policies and human capacity. The critical challenge is the ability to convert these advantages into bankable projects and measurable outcomes,” it said.

It added, “Policies must translate into implementation; resources into projects; projects into production; production into value; and investment into sustainable jobs and national prosperity.”

PENGASSAN therefore called for stronger collaboration among the government, regulators, NNPC Limited, operators, investors, organised labour and host communities, insisting that Nigeria’s petroleum industry would ultimately be judged not by the quantity of hydrocarbons beneath the ground but by the value generated from them.

“The strength of Nigeria’s oil and gas industry will not be measured merely by the resources beneath the ground, but by the projects delivered, the value created, the Nigerian capabilities developed, the decent jobs sustained and the prosperity generated for the Nigerian people,” the union said.

It added, “The opportunity is enormous. The responsibility is shared. Execution must now be the priority.”

Source: punchng.com

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Presidency, OPS kick against Atiku’s petrol subsidy push

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The African Democratic Congress presidential candidate in the 2027 election, Atiku Abubakar, on Thursday, came under vitriolic attacks over his plan to restore petrol subsidy if he wins the 2027 presidential election.

While the Presidency and the Organised Private Sector faulted the proposed policy reversal, the Nigeria Labour Congress was divided over Atiku’s plan to restore the petrol subsidy, which President Bola Tinubu removed during his inaugural address in May 2023.

Meanwhile, in the run-up to the 2023 presidential election, Atiku, then the Peoples Democratic Party candidate, had pledged to remove petrol subsidy within 100 days in office if he won the election.

Under his latest proposal contained in his Atiku Economic Recovery Plan 2027, the ex-vice president said his government would provide qualifying Nigerian refineries with crude oil at preferential prices, but only under strict conditions designed to ensure that the benefit reaches consumers.

He noted that the new petroleum subsidy model would shift government support from imported fuel to locally refined products.

In a statement signed by his Senior Special Assistant on Public Communication, Mr Phrank Shaibu, on Thursday, Atiku called for a detailed explanation of nearly N12tn in energy security expenses recorded by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited in 2023 and 2024.

“My proposal is not to resurrect the old subsidy regime. We will move subsidy from importation to production, from middlemen to Nigerian refineries, and from unverifiable claims to verifiable barrels. The principle is simple: the subsidy will follow the barrel,” he said.

Atiku’s proposal comes against the backdrop of the consequences of the subsidy withdrawal, which had triggered a hike in transportation costs, subjecting millions of Nigerians to untold hardship as families struggle to afford basic needs.

Though the Federal Government has consistently defended it as necessary to prevent fiscal collapse and redirect public finance to infrastructure, education, healthcare and job creation, Nigerians have continued to contend with elevated petrol prices and the wider cost-of-living impact of the subsidy removal.

On Wednesday, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, disclosed that the removal of the subsidy and the liberalisation of the naira had generated N15.8tn in savings for the federation between June 2023 and December 2025.

But the ADC presidential flag-bearer argued that Nigeria’s experience since the removal of the subsidy demonstrated the need for a different approach—one that supports domestic production without creating an open-ended liability for the federation.

Under the AERP model, both public and private refineries that meet prescribed requirements would be eligible for preferential crude allocations. The allocation, according to Atiku, would be based on independently verified refining capacity, efficiency, domestic supply, production performance and regulatory compliance rather than political connections.

However, access to cheaper crude would come with a corresponding obligation.

According to the plan, a refinery receiving preferential crude would be required to refine it domestically and supply an agreed quantity of petroleum products to the Nigerian market under a transparent pricing formula reflecting the value of the crude concession.

The ex-VP further argued that crude allocation, refinery intake, production yields, inventories and domestic deliveries would be reconciled so that each subsidised barrel could be traced from the point of allocation to the final consumer.

“No phantom cargoes. No fictitious imports. No unverifiable under-recoveries. No retrospective claims,” the statement read.

He added that operators that divert subsidised crude or products, falsify production records or fail to pass the prescribed benefit to consumers would lose eligibility, repay the subsidy benefit and face regulatory and legal sanctions.

A major component of the proposed model is a fixed annual spending limit.

Unlike the previous system, Atiku said the intervention would be incorporated into the federal budget, allowing the National Assembly and the public to know in advance the maximum financial exposure.

“No refinery gets unlimited support. No marketer brings government a surprise bill. No agency manufactures an under-recovery after the transaction,” he said.

The former vice president also proposed that the opportunity cost of supplying crude below its market-equivalent value should be openly reflected in the accounts of the federation, including the implications for revenues accruing to the federal, state and local governments.

He noted that any additional oil revenue available above a predetermined budget benchmark could only be deployed within the established fiscal ceiling and through a legally appropriated framework.

Atiku also renewed his criticism of the government’s handling of subsidy removal.

He specifically drew attention to NNPCL’s 2023 audited financial statements, which record energy security expenses of approximately ₦4.84tn in 2023 and ₦7.13tn in 2024, a combined figure of about ₦11.97tn.

Atiku said Nigerians deserved a detailed explanation of the economic substance of the energy security expenses and the extent to which they included under-recoveries, pricing differentials or other petroleum supply costs.

“We are not interested in playing games with accounting terminology. If government continued absorbing differences between the economic cost of petroleum products and what was recovered from the market, then Nigerians are entitled to ask how that differs economically from the subsidy they were told had disappeared,” he stressed.

Atiku argues that Nigerians should not simultaneously face market-level pump prices while public resources continue to absorb petroleum-related costs that have not been sufficiently explained.

“Nigerians cannot pay for subsidy removal twice — through punishing pump prices and through unexplained subsidy-like costs against their commonwealth.’’

 

 

Atiku’s proposed system would also have a statutory sunset clause, with the level of support expected to decline as domestic refining capacity expands, refinery utilisation improves, and production costs fall.

“Our objective is not permanent subsidy. It is to use temporary and disciplined support to build a refining industry strong enough eventually not to need subsidy,” he said.

The ADC presidential candidate also revived his demand for a comprehensive reconciliation of federation revenues, deductions, savings and transfers.

He said his team’s examination of published Federation Account figures had identified approximately ₦30tn requiring month-by-month reconciliation.

He, however, stressed that he was not alleging that the entire ₦30tn represented fuel subsidy or had been stolen.

“We are not saying ₦30tn is fuel subsidy or that ₦30tn has been proven stolen,” he clarified, adding, “we are saying that approximately ₦30tn reflected across Federation revenues, deductions, savings, transfers and related classifications requires a complete, month-by-month public reconciliation.”

He challenged the Federal Government to publish details of the deductions, beneficiaries, transfers, balances and legal authority behind the transactions.

Presidency faults ex-VP

On Thursday, President Bola Tinubu, while welcoming Governor Ademola Adeleke of Osun State on a courtesy visit after his re-election victory, described the pledge by Atiku to restore petrol subsidy if elected in 2027 as a demonstration of serious ignorance of governance and the economy.

“I saw one of my opponents now say he will go back to subsidy. I read it. That is a demonstration of a serious ignorance on governance and economy,” Tinubu told the delegation.

“Before I came here, 27 states are unable to pay salaries, not to even talk of pensioners, salary of workers. I know a man in your state that I raised who is nicknamed ‘half salary.’ They come to the federal, capping hand, unable to do anything.”

Also, the Presidency dismissed Atiku’s plan as fiscally reckless and politically desperate, accusing the former Vice President of an opportunistic reversal of his own previously stated economic position, five months to the election.

In a statement on Thursday titled, ‘Restoring Petrol Subsidies: Atiku’s Volte-Face and Desperation for Power,’ by the Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, said Atiku’s promise reflected a man who “least comprehends the present economic dynamics.’’

The Presidency challenged the former VP to explain the fiscal arithmetic behind his latest pledge.

“Against expectations that he would announce a more creative and ingenious alternative to the programme being executed by the Tinubu administration, Atiku Abubakar behaved like a man from an archaic past who least comprehends the present economic dynamics and suggested that he would restore the much-abused, wasteful, pillaged, corruption-ridden fuel subsidy regime, which the Petroleum Industry Act made illegal from the end of June 2023,” the statement read.

It added, “Even though he used to believe that the subsidy regime must be eliminated, a point he canvassed in the run-up to his defeat in the 2023 election, he has now opportunistically recanted the major plank of his economic doctrine and turned a renegade.”

The Presidency rejected the premise of Atiku’s questions, disputing the existence of a N30tn unaccounted windfall.

It argued, “Contrary to Atiku’s claim in his interview, no N30tn subsidy windfall or savings exists anywhere except in his imagination.

“It is not some money sitting in the treasury to be disbursed to offer cheap fuel to Nigerians. It is the massive discount the NNPC offered the Nigerian government: selling fuel it bought at N100 at N50 at the pump, leading to under-recovery of costs and massive losses.

“Somewhere in the NNPC books are still trillions of naira in subsidy costs that the Nigerian government has not paid.”

The Presidency noted that Tinubu’s subsidy removal owes its legal basis to the Petroleum Industry Act, which had scheduled the abolition of subsidies for the end of June 2023 regardless of who succeeds former President Muhammadu Buhari.

“President Tinubu only accelerated it by weeks to stop further bleeding before the due date,” it said, arguing that any reversal “would require a clear legal, fiscal and administrative framework, including identifying the source of the funds and determining how such a policy would be implemented under the present petroleum-market structure.”

The Presidency further argued that Atiku’s promise to restore petrol subsidy would lead to massive job losses and reverse progress made in domestic refining and export.

It said, “Atiku’s proposal portends a reversal of current local production, and it will spell bankruptcy for smaller local refineries like Aradel’s, causing attendant job losses and a loss of foreign exchange.

“Indeed, the Dangote Refinery would not have kickstarted production for local consumption were the subsidy regime operative. This is an important point that Atiku deceptively ignored.”

It contrasted the current export-oriented petroleum sector with the import dependency of previous administrations in which Atiku served.

“Because the sector is now market-driven, Nigeria now exports refined products to Europe, Asia, and the United States, restoring national pride.

“This development is a sharp contrast to when Obasanjo and Atiku were in power: Nigeria’s largest import, costing about $10bn, was refined products! President Tinubu has flipped that to Nigeria’s advantage,” he stated.

 

 

On the fiscal dividends of the reform, the presidency credited the removal of the subsidy and the accompanying naira reforms for a dramatic improvement in the finances of state governments.

According to Onanuga, “The N15tn that would have been borrowed and spent on selling discounted petrol has now significantly gone into the coffers of the three tiers of government.

“Now all states are fiscally stable and can pay salaries regularly and embark on infrastructure projects. In July, the three tiers shared about N3 trillion, a record, from the federation account.

“That is a major achievement, since the abolition of petrol price discount and distortions in the foreign exchange regime.”

The Presidency added, “Nigeria is increasingly moving from a model in which scarce foreign exchange is used to import refined petrol to one in which crude oil, largely sold in naira, can be processed domestically and supplied to the Nigerian market.

“That transition creates opportunities for greater energy security, foreign-exchange conservation, industrial development and ultimately a boost to employment generation.”

The Presidency noted that at various points under the subsidy regime, the FG financed the shortfall through borrowing and crude oil-backed loans, with “millions of barrels of crude oil” pledged against such facilities.

 

 

It said the NNPC reached a breaking point in 2024, owing suppliers billions of dollars.

“If the subsidy is restored, who pays for it? What will the new pump price be? N200 or N500?  If petrol is sold below its economic cost, which is about N1,200 to N1,300, someone must absorb the difference.

“Ultimately, that cost falls on the public finances, through reduced funds for infrastructure and social services, reduced allocation to states and 774 local councils, increased borrowing, higher public debt, or some combination of these,” the statement read.

While acknowledging that households continue to struggle with fuel and transportation costs, the Presidency cited the administration’s Compressed Natural Gas drive as its preferred alternative to relieving the burden.

It said, “The Tinubu administration has been encouraging the use of Compressed Natural Gas, 70 per cent cheaper than petrol, to power taxis, cars and distribution trucks.

“Even Dangote and BUA have CNG trucks in their fleet. What remains is for commercial trucks, buses, and taxis to pass on the benefits of reduced energy costs to our people.”

“We believe sustainable relief is different from recreating a fiscal arrangement that will again cripple our country,” the statement added.

 

 

According to Onanuga, Atiku owed Nigerians further explanations before his promise could be taken seriously.

“Specific answers should accompany any promise to restore fuel subsidy. How much will the programme cost annually? What revenue source will finance it? Will the government borrow to fund it? Will the National Assembly be asked to amend existing PIA legislation and petroleum-sector rules? How will subsidy payments be verified and protected from abuse, as witnessed some years ago?” the statement read.

The Presidency also questioned Atiku on what a restored subsidy would now be subsidising, given the changed structure of the market.

It said, “Now that Nigeria has substantially increased domestic petrol production, what precisely would the proposed subsidy be subsidising, the cost of local production, transportation and distribution, or some other component of the petroleum value chain?”

“Nigeria cannot afford to return to policies whose costs are hidden from citizens until they appear later as debt, reduced government spending on social services, and further pressure on the national currency,” the statement added, urging Atiku and other political actors to present Nigerians with the full fiscal and legal implications of any proposal to restore fuel subsidy.

Also, the Special Adviser to the President on Media and Public Communication, Sunday Dare, in a tweet lampooned the ADC candidate, saying, “Atiku Abubakar, your pronouncement that you will bring back fuel subsidy is drenched in hypocrisy and deceit. It is an unpardonable manipulation of the public psyche, designed to hoodwink unsuspecting Nigerians into voting for you.

“The ongoing recovery across various sectors of our national life annoys you, and will be halted if this thinking of yours is implemented. By the Grace of God, it will not happen, and all good men of conscience must rise up against you.’’

 

 

OPS opposes subsidy

The Organised Private Sector and economists cautioned against the proposed return of petrol subsidy, saying the policy could worsen Nigeria’s fiscal burden and discourage investment in the energy sector.

In separate interviews with The PUNCH, OPS leaders, including the President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, Femi Egbesola, observed that subsidy could offer immediate relief to businesses, but warned against returning to the old system.

“The proposed return of fuel subsidy by the ADC presidential candidate would provide some immediate relief to Nigerians and businesses, particularly MSMEs, because fuel costs feed directly into transportation, logistics, power generation and the prices of goods.

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‘’However, we must be careful not to return to the old subsidy regime without addressing its huge fiscal cost and the leakages that characterised it. The Federal Government says the removal generated about N15.8tn in resources between June 2023 and December 2025,” Egbesola said.

He urged the government to adopt a targeted intervention rather than a blanket subsidy.

Egbesola said the government should focus on reducing the cost of energy and improving productivity rather than subsidising consumption.

 

 

The National Deputy President of the National Association of Small-Scale Industrialists, Segun Kuti-George, described the proposed reversal as economically damaging, warning that the country had already endured the difficult phase of the reform.

“For me, it is a sign of desperation, political desperado, in the bid to win at all costs. I’m not a politician, and I’m not making a political statement. I’m talking from the point of view of a Nigerian and a businessman and an economist,” Kuti-George said.

He added that reversing the subsidy removal would amount to turning back after making significant progress.

“For anyone to be thinking of reversing this subsidy now, it will be very unfair, and it will be economic suicide. It is like you are going to a promised land and then you’ve gone halfway and then you now said, let us return,” he said.

Kuti-George argued that the government could now deploy resources previously spent on subsidies to infrastructure and other productive investments.

“We could not have gone this far, borne all this suffering, and then we now reverse it. What is that going to get us? Then where will the resources  for the subsidy come from? That’s another question.’’

He said the government should sustain the reform and invest the savings in infrastructure to support economic growth.

The Chief Executive Officer of Economic Associates, Dr Ayo Teriba, pointed out that the debate should focus on the type and method of subsidy rather than whether subsidies should exist.

He warned that politicians could make populist promises during campaigns but would still face constitutional and institutional limits when they assume office.

“Politicians have a right to campaign. They have a right to appeal to populist sentiments. But for the education of the public, I would say the following: The debate is not about whether or not to subsidise. The debate is about what is being subsidised and how it is being subsidised,” Teriba said.

The economist noted that price subsidy creates distortions because it encourages wasteful consumption and discourages investment in supply.

“What is inefficient in any country anywhere in the world at any time is price subsidies because it will lead to irrational decisions. When petrol was subsidised, everybody would fill their tank and use it wastefully. When the subsidy was removed, people would think twice about whether to drive their car or use public transport.”

Teriba also warned that subsidising prices could discourage investors from committing capital to refining and other energy infrastructure.

He said the government could still support vulnerable Nigerians through income and expenditure subsidies without fixing the market price of petrol.

 

 

He cited support for compressed natural gas, electricity, farmers and other vulnerable groups as examples of alternatives to blanket price subsidies.

The Director of the Lagos Business School Public Sector Initiative, Prof. Franklin Ngwu, said restoring fuel subsidy would repeat the fiscal and governance problems that plagued the policy for years.

Ngwu said the country should consider the history of subsidy administration, particularly the corruption associated with the scheme, before embracing any proposal to reinstate it.

“The first thing is to acknowledge that we had an oil subsidy for so many years. And if we appreciate the history of subsidy, the management of subsidy, and particularly inherent corruption in subsidy administration and management, from a good sociopolitical and economic point of view, I do not think that bringing it back would be the best policy for Nigeria,” Ngwu said.

He acknowledged that the proposal could appeal to Nigerians struggling with the rising cost of living but warned that its economic consequences could outweigh the immediate relief.

“While it might sound very populist, while it might sound like it’s going to address or help the poor or the vulnerable Nigerians or the masses, from strategic assessment and economic analysis, I think it might not be the best,” he said.

Ngwu urged the government to channel the savings from subsidy removal into education and healthcare, saying those sectors could deliver more sustainable benefits to Nigerians.

 

 

“The two critical areas that can be used to sustainably develop a society which contributes to Human Development Index include education and health. So, from an economic point of view, I think that deploying the resources saved from subsidy removal into health and education would make a more meaningful impact on Nigerians than bringing it back,” he said.

He said the government should also invest in productivity, manufacturing and cheaper credit for small businesses after addressing education and healthcare.

“We have close to maybe about over 18 million out-of-school children in Nigeria. These out-of-school children, that’s what we had 20 years ago, 25 years ago, 15 years ago, have now transformed into bandits, into all kinds of criminals and all that. So, if we want to really create a sustainable development of this country, we need to focus on education and health,” Ngwu said.

He added that the government could use available resources to reduce the financing burden on MSMEs and strengthen productive sectors.

“Then, if there is still money, we can focus on productivity, manufacturing. If there is money as well, we can also focus on helping and reducing the interest rate paid by MSMEs, micro, small and medium enterprises, so they can be able to get loans at a cheaper rate,” he said.

On his part, Economist, Dr Vincent Nwani, said Atiku’s pledge lacked details on how his proposed subsidy reversal would work without undoing other economic reforms implemented since 2023.

Nwani said returning fuel subsidy would amount to taking the economy back to the conditions that existed before the removal of the scheme, with implications beyond the petrol market.

 

 

“Unfortunately, the former vice president, Mr Atiku Abubakar, did not go deeper to tell us how he wanted to achieve that, because returning fuel subsidy is as good as restating the economy back to where it was on the morning of May 29, 2023. So it’s not just the demand side but the supply side. It’s not just the payment side but the spending side,” Nwani said.

He questioned how a new government would reconcile subsidy restoration with other changes, including the current minimum wage and the broader fiscal adjustments that followed the removal of subsidy.

“Is he also telling us that he will adjust the wages from N70,000, the minimum wage from N70,000 back to N29,000 or N28,000? We remain to see how he wants to do that. But as I said, it’s about readjusting the whole economic quotient. You cannot just bring back the subsidy and not have a lot of issues,” he said.

Nwani warned that reversing the policy could produce another wave of economic disruption, arguing that Nigeria had already endured significant shocks from recent reforms.

“For me, the impact will be as much as the impact that removal of fuel subsidy has. Not just one leg, so many other legs. But does Nigeria need those types of shocks again? No, in my own professional thinking. If you ask me, if I’m the incoming president, what I will do, I will not go back to fuel subsidy,” Nwani said.

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Instead, he urged any incoming administration to focus on governance, infrastructure and security while maintaining the subsidy reform.

“What I will do is I will improve on transparency, good governance that is properly communicated. That’s what I’ll go back to. There’s a lot of debt covenant we entered into with the IMF,” he said.

 

 

Nwani said the government should prioritise electricity, roads, rail transport and security instead of returning to petrol price subsidy.

“If I were to advise, leave it as it is, but get things going. In all of these things that we are talking about, get the power to be constant, get the roads fixed, get the rails running, get your security addressed,” he said.

The economist added, “The major problem we have is not even the fuel price, to be honest. It’s not even the fuel price. Get your security addressed. Give us good roads, give us rails across the country. Good governance is what we are seeking, not the fuel price at all. Solve this security in the North, solve this security in the South.”

Wike reacts

Meanwhile, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, has defended the Federal Government’s removal of fuel subsidy, accusing Atiku of inconsistency over his position on the policy.

According to a statement issued by the Senior Special Assistant to the minister, Lere Olayinka, Wike questioned Atiku’s rationale for seeking to reverse a policy he had previously supported.

“Now, in 2026, he is not going to remove the fuel subsidy. Is he going back to the fraud, which he had alleged that the fuel subsidy was?” Wike asked.

Describing Atiku as a “voodoo economist”, the minister accused him of changing his positions to appeal to voters.

“Atiku is confused and acts like a voodoo economist; Atiku will say anything just to be president,” Wike said.

He argued that presidential aspirants should demonstrate consistency in their policies rather than adjust their positions to suit political circumstances.

“Leadership is not you coming out, you say one thing now in the morning, in the afternoon you say a different thing, in the night you are talking of a different thing. That is not it,” he said.

He also questioned how Atiku intended to reintroduce fuel subsidy given the transformation of Nigeria’s petroleum industry following the enactment of the PIA and the commercialisation of the NNPCL

“He (Atiku) is living in the past. If not, he will know that with the PIA, NNPCL is now fully commercialised. It has transformed the old NNPC into a limited liability company, and no longer the sole importer or producer of fuel,” Wike said.

The minister asked, “Will Atiku, as president (Which he never will be), pay subsidy on fuel produced by Dangote Refinery? It also shows that he is confused, having insisted in the past that he will remove subsidy, which he described as a fraud. Does it now mean that he will restore what he said was a fraud?’’

 

 

The ex-governor stated that restoring subsidy would contradict the direction of the Petroleum Industry Act, which was designed to make the midstream and downstream petroleum sector commercially driven and competitive.

“Reintroducing government-controlled fuel prices would reverse this policy direction, create regulatory uncertainty and weaken investor confidence in the sector. It will also recreate the distortions Nigeria has spent years trying to eliminate, “ Wike argued.

Defending President Tinubu’s policy, Wike said the savings had resulted in increased allocations to the three tiers of government.

Atiku’s position strange- NDC

Speaking on the issue, the National Democratic Congress described the position of the ADC presidential candidate on petroleum subsidy retention as strange, noting that while contesting the presidential election in 2023, Atiku pledged to remove subsidy if elected.

In an interview with our correspondent on Thursday, the National Publicity Secretary of the Party, Osa Director, said, “In 2023, Atiku said he was going to remove petroleum subsidy if elected. Our presidential candidate, Mr Peter, also said the same thing: he was going to remove the petroleum subsidy if elected in 2023. So, what the former vice president is saying today is strange.”

The NDC publicity scribe, however, stressed that Atiku’s new position might be a reflection of the economic realities of today’s Nigeria.

 

 

When asked about the stand of the NDC presidential candidate on petroleum subsidy ahead of next year’s election, he said, “Mr Peter Obi is in the process of analysing and reviewing the situation, and he will make his position known on whether he will sustain subsidy removal or restore it if elected president in 2027.”

NLC divided

Atiku’s proposal has, however, divided the Nigeria Labour Congress, with officials of the union taking different positions. The NLC spokesperson, Benson Upah, said the labour centre is open to the restoration of fuel subsidy if the policy will reduce the economic burden on Nigerians, particularly workers.

In an interview with one of our correspondents, Upah stated that the labour movement was not opposed to subsidy in principle, arguing that governments across the world often subsidise essential goods and services to cushion the impact of rising costs on citizens.

He said, “We are open to anything that will lighten the burden on Nigerians as a whole, but workers in particular.”

According to him, subsidy should not automatically be regarded as a bad policy, stressing that responsible governments could adopt subsidies to protect citizens from the impact of high prices.

“It is important to note that subsidy is inherently not evil. Every responsible country or government acting reasonably subsidises the consumption of petrol by its citizens in one way or the other,” he said.

 

 

Upah, however, said the major problem with Nigeria’s subsidy regime was not the concept itself but the alleged corruption surrounding its implementation.

“What is evil is the crime or the criminal content of subsidy in our shores which the government of the day not only condones but encourages,” he said.

The NLC spokesperson said the government should focus on identifying and prosecuting those allegedly exploiting the petroleum supply chain instead of transferring the consequences of such activities to ordinary Nigerians.

He said, “Sadly, when the roof caves in, instead of government going after the crooks doing round-tripping, over-invoicing, excess-ex or in-coastal charges, hoarding products or even selling substandard products, smuggling, government turns on the people—the victims who have no hand in any of these.”

Upah argued that Nigerians should not be made to pay for leakages and fraudulent practices allegedly perpetrated by individuals within the fuel supply chain.

On his part, the National Assistant Secretary of the NLC, Christopher Onyeka, said the union would support Atiku or any government if its objective was to make petroleum products cheaper for Nigerians, but would not support a return to the subsidy regime.

He questioned the basis for bringing back a policy that the current administration has abolished.

 

 

“If he says he wants to reduce the price of petroleum products when he comes back, that’s fine,” the executive told The PUNCH. “If he says when I come back, I will reduce the price of petroleum products, we are cool with him. But pricing on that subsidy is unacceptable.”

Source: punchng.com

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30 months after subsidy removal, FG spends N30.6tn, saves N15.8tn

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30 months after President Bola Tinubu removed petrol subsidy and introduced other sweeping economic reforms, the Federal Government has spent N30.64tn as government expenditure to ease effect of its policies, while the policies generated N15.8tn in savings for the Federation.

The government said its total incremental expenditure between June 2023 and December 2025 was N30.64tn, exceeding the N20.4tn in additional resources available to the Federal Government from subsidy savings, higher revenue and borrowing by N10.24tn, or 50.2 per cent.

This show that the removal of petrol subsidy created significant fiscal space but did not produce a pool of idle cash for the Federal Government.

Instead, the government said the resources were absorbed by rising wage costs, debt servicing, infrastructure spending and other obligations arising from the same economic reforms.

Put differently, for every N100 the Federal Government generated in additional resources, it spent about N150, leaving about one-third of the expenditure to be funded from its existing revenue base.

The development came as the Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, disclosed that the removal of petrol subsidy and the unification of the foreign exchange market mobilised N15.8tn in additional resources for the Federation during the period.

However, the government received only N5.4tn, representing 34 per cent of the subsidy savings, while the states received N6.5tn and local governments got N3.9tn under the Federation Account allocation formula.

These figures were contained in the Federal Government’s Nigeria Reform Scorecard titled, “The Benefits, Costs and Harm Prevented”, released on Wednesday. The purposes of the news conference was to provide Nigerians with clear and factual information on the savings arising from the removal of the foreign subsidy and foreign exchange unification.

According to Oyedele, the N15.8tn was not paid into the Federation Account under a heading described as “subsidy savings.”

Instead, he said the combined effect of the petrol subsidy removal and foreign exchange reforms increased the naira value of revenues accruing to the Federation.

“Between June 2023 and December 2025, subsidy savings mobilised a sum of N15.8tn in resources for the Federation,” Oyedele said.

“Many people will say, ‘Where is the subsidy saving?’ As a matter of fact, there wasn’t any line in the Federation Account with the description, ‘subsidy savings.’

“So, the subsidy savings showed up in the form of higher collection by Customs because, for every one dollar of import duty before, at N460, it became one dollar at N1,004, N1,003, N1,005.

“The NRS, Petroleum Profit Tax that it collected before, same dollar, higher amount in naira. So, the savings showed up in the Federation accounts by way of higher revenue collections as a result of the reforms.”

The minister said the additional fiscal resources were not generated by the petrol subsidy removal alone, arguing that the foreign exchange reforms also ended what he described as an implicit subsidy that had created opportunities for rent-seeking.

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He said, “Not just the subsidy removal, but also the exchange rate flotation, because we were subsidising the exchange rate. And that subsidy was not going to the ordinary person or manufacturers. It was going to rent-seekers.”

The Finance Minister explained that although the removal of petrol subsidy generated N15.8tn in savings for the Federation between June 2023 and December 2025, only N5.4tn, or 34 per cent, accrued to the Federal Government.

The balance was shared among the states and local governments under the statutory Federation Account allocation formula.

According to the scorecard, states received N6.5tn, representing 41 per cent of the total subsidy savings, while the 774 local government areas received N3.9tn, or 24 per cent.

The Federal Government also generated N3.1tn in additional independent revenue, mainly from increased remittances by government-owned entities, while N11.9tn came from additional borrowing.

This brought the Federal Government’s total incremental resources to N20.4tn, of which borrowing accounted for 58 per cent, subsidy savings 27 per cent and other revenue 15 per cent.

Of the N30.64tn in total incremental expenditure during the 31-month period, N9.39tn was spent on wage adjustments, including the increase in the national minimum wage, wage awards and allowances for public servants.

Another N9.37tn was spent on additional external debt servicing resulting from the depreciation of the naira, while N6.47tn went into strategic infrastructure development.

The three items alone accounted for about N25.22tn, or more than 82 per cent of the total incremental expenditure.

The remaining spending included N3.14tn in additional electricity subsidy costs, N1.24tn in increased domestic debt servicing linked to higher interest rates, N423.8bn for social welfare transfers and N419.1bn for the Federal Capital Territory, Ecological Fund, Natural Resource Fund and other interventions.

The government also spent N201.26bn on the higher naira cost of foreign obligations.

He said, “In addition, the Federal Government earned incremental independent revenue of

N3.1tn, principally remittances from government-owned entities while N11.9tn came from incremental borrowing, a figure that would have been far higher, and economically destabilising, without the fiscal space the reforms created.

“Altogether, the Federal Government’s incremental resources over the period came to N20.4tn. That money did not sit idle, it partly funded incremental expenses of N30.64tn. Of this, N9.39tn went to wage adjustments, minimum wage increases and allowances for public servants; N9.37tn went to external debt service made necessary by exchange rate depreciation; and N6.5tn went into strategic infrastructure, making the top three expenditure lines. Every naira of this is accounted for, and the breakdown is in the scorecard we are releasing today.

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“Put another way: of the N20.4tn, 58 percent came from borrowing, 27 per cent from subsidy savings, and 15 per cent from other revenue. Against total incremental spending of N30.64 trillion, two-thirds was funded by these new resources, while the remaining third, about N10tn, came from the existing revenue base, despite ending the excessive printing of naira. That, in itself, is evidence of improved public financial management.”

He added, “Every naira of this is accounted for, and the breakdown is in the scorecard we are releasing today.”

The latest disclosure provides a detailed answer to the question that has followed the removal of petrol subsidy since President Bola Tinubu announced the policy on May 29, 2023: where did the savings go?

Tinubu had promised that money previously spent on subsidy would be redirected towards investments and programmes that would benefit Nigerians, including infrastructure, education and other social interventions. In a July 2023 national broadcast, the President said more than N1tn had been saved within the first few months of the policy and pledged that the resources would be used “more directly and more beneficially” for Nigerians.

However, the administration faced persistent public demands for a clear account of the savings as inflation, transport costs and other living expenses surged after the subsidy removal.

Last month, Oyedele acknowledged that the question was legitimate and promised to publish a comprehensive breakdown of the subsidy savings and their utilisation. He explained that the money was not kept in a separate savings account but was absorbed by higher government obligations, particularly debt servicing, wages and social interventions.

The new scorecard appears to be the government’s most detailed accounting yet of the resources generated by the reforms and how they were deployed.

It also underscores a central contradiction in the post-subsidy fiscal narrative: while the removal freed trillions of naira for the Federation, the Federal Government’s share was significantly smaller than the headline savings figure, and its new expenditure still outpaced its additional resources by more than N10tn.

Oyedele argued that the difference was partly financed from the existing revenue base and reflected improved public financial management, rather than a return to heavy monetary financing.

The government also maintained that the reforms prevented a deeper fiscal and economic crisis, arguing that debt service had fallen relative to revenue and that states which previously struggled to pay salaries now had improved fiscal capacity.

Oyedele said the scorecard was not designed to claim that the reforms had come without costs.

“We invited you here today not to declare a victory, but to give an account,” he said.

“For the past three years, the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has embarked on major reforms to address age-long economic challenges, the removal of a fuel subsidy that was quietly bankrupting the country, and the unification of an exchange rate system that had become a source of arbitrage, distortion and corruption rather than stability.”

See also  30 months after subsidy removal, FG spends N30.6tn, saves N15.8tn

He added, “Those decisions came at a real cost, and we are not here to pretend otherwise. Prices rose. The naira adjusted sharply. Households and businesses felt it, and many still do.”

The Federal Government said the scorecard was intended to show not only what the reforms generated, but also what the administration believes Nigeria would have faced if the subsidy regime, multiple exchange rates and unchecked Ways and Means financing had continued.

Also speaking, the Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris described the decision to remove the fuel subsidy as one of the most significant and difficult economic reforms undertaken by the Tinubu administration, acknowledging that it had imposed real costs and adjustments on households, businesses and communities.

He, however, said the reforms were necessary to redirect resources previously committed to an unsustainable subsidy regime towards investments capable of delivering greater and more sustainable value to Nigerians.

“Citizens have a right to know what resources have been freed up, what these resources mean for the Federation, and how the benefits of reform are being translated into tangible improvements in their lives,” the minister said.

Also in his remarks, the Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Abubakar Atiku Bagudu, provided further context on the rationale for the reforms, noting that President Tinubu inherited an economy with one of the world’s lowest revenue-to-GDP ratios and, consequently, limited fiscal capacity relative to Nigeria’s population and developmental needs.

Bagudu said the administration had to make bold and difficult choices to address fiscal leakages, restore confidence in the economy and create greater room for investment in security, infrastructure, human capital development and grassroots development.

He said President Tinubu chose to confront the economic realities he inherited rather than apportion blame, drawing lessons from international experience in pursuing the difficult reforms required to place the Nigerian economy on a more sustainable footing.

The minister said the reforms had also been accompanied by interventions to cushion their effects on vulnerable Nigerians, stressing that increased revenues would provide government with greater capacity to discharge its constitutional and developmental responsibilities.

He noted that resources generated and mobilised through the reforms were being invested in projects and programmes across the six geopolitical zones, adding that improved connectivity, security, infrastructure and economic opportunities would ultimately benefit Nigerians across the Federation.

Source: punchng.com

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FG, states, councils share record N3tn in July

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The Federal Government, 36 states and 774 local government councils shared a record N3.007tn from the Federation Account in July 2026, the highest monthly FAAC allocation ever recorded, as stronger statutory revenue pushed the amount available for distribution above the N3tn mark for the first time.

The statutory collections rose by N658.09bn, driven by improved receipts from petroleum and non-oil taxes. The disbursement was approved at the August 2026 meeting of the Federation Account Allocation Committee held in Owerri, Imo State.

The PUNCH reports that the N3.007tn distributed in July is the highest monthly FAAC allocation recorded in 2026 and the largest allocation in the reviewed FAAC records from 2019 to July 2026.

A statement issued on Tuesday by the Director of Press and Public Relations in the Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation, Bawa Mokwa, said the gross statutory revenue rose to N4.359tn in July from N3.700tn recorded in June.

The increase represented N658.087bn, or 17.8 per cent, signalling stronger collections across several oil and non-oil revenue sources. However, gross Value Added Tax revenue declined marginally to N793.968bn in July from N799.746bn in the preceding month, representing a decrease of N5.778bn, or 0.7 per cent.

The statement read, “In its regular monthly business, FAAC approved the disbursement of a total of N3.007tn to the Federal Government, the 36 state governments and the 774 Local Government Councils as revenue for July 2026.

“The month’s figures point to a strengthening underlying revenue base. Gross statutory revenue rose to N4.359tn in July 2026, up N658.087bn, a 17.8 per cent increase, from N3.700tn in June 2026, reflecting improved collection performance across oil and non-oil statutory sources. Gross VAT revenue held broadly steady at N793.968bn, a marginal decline of N5.778bn (0.7 per cent) from N799.746bn in June, suggesting consumption-tax receipts remain resilient month-on-month.”

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The communiqué showed that Petroleum Profit Tax, Hydrocarbon Tax, Companies Income Tax, Capital Gains Tax, Stamp Duty Tax, petroleum royalties, mineral royalties, excise duty and gas flaring penalties recorded increases during the month.

The gains, however, were partly offset by declines in VAT, import duty, CET levies, rental of gas flaring fees and miscellaneous oil revenue. “The committee will continue to monitor as it works with revenue-generating agencies to close collection gaps and improve remittance discipline,” Bawa stated.

The development comes amid a sustained rise in revenues accruing to the Federation Account following major fiscal reforms, including the removal of petrol subsidy, foreign exchange reforms and efforts to widen the tax base.

Beyond the monthly allocation, the Owerri meeting also shifted attention to a broader question confronting the country’s three tiers of government: whether rising federation allocations would translate into stronger state economies, improved infrastructure and better social services.

The FAAC meeting, which was held on the sidelines of the National Council of Federation and Economic Development, brought together finance commissioners and accountants-general to discuss the fiscal health of the federation and ways of converting recent revenue growth into long-term economic strength.

Bawa said government officials were urged to focus on six key areas described as vital to fiscal fitness, including improving the quality of internally generated revenue, strengthening and commercialising public assets, expanding economic activity, attracting private capital, investing in human capital and improving transparency in public finance.

States were also encouraged to use the period of stronger revenue to build comprehensive asset registers, verify payrolls and ensure the timely publication of audited accounts.

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“The FAAC convened its August 2026 meeting in Owerri, the Imo State capital, on the margins of the ongoing National Council of Federation and Economic Development, pairing the Committee’s routine monthly business with a broader push to strengthen fiscal fundamentals across Nigeria’s federating units.

“The FAAC session discussed the state of the economy, fiscal governance, and federal and subnational fiscal fitness. The session set out the scale of the recent revenue windfall and called for deliberate reform to convert it into durable fiscal strength rather than a temporary gain. The meeting noted that gross FAAC have risen significantly over the past three years, driven by subsidy removal, exchange-rate unification and tax reform,” the statement added.

The meeting further highlighted changes introduced under the Nigeria Tax Act 2025, which took effect from January 1, 2026, and altered the distribution of VAT revenue among the tiers of government.

Under the new framework, the states’ share of VAT revenue increased from 50 per cent to 55 per cent, while the Federal Government’s share declined from 15 per cent to 10 per cent.

The new arrangement also provides that 30 per cent of the states’ VAT pool should be distributed according to the place of consumption rather than the location of a company’s registered headquarters.

The change is expected to create a stronger link between economic activity within a state and the revenue it receives from the Federation Account, potentially increasing competition among subnational governments to attract businesses and expand their economies.

The committee also reaffirmed its commitment to the full and timely remittance of collectible revenues by Ministries, Departments and Agencies into the Federation Account.

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It stressed the need to diversify government revenues beyond crude oil and said solid minerals and other non-oil royalty streams would remain areas of focus as the federation seeks to build a more resilient revenue base.

The committee noted that sustaining the strong statutory revenue recorded in July would depend on improved collection and remittance discipline by revenue-generating agencies.

It added that the challenge for governments was no longer merely to share rising revenues but to ensure that the additional funds were converted into productive investments capable of strengthening public finances and improving living standards.

The meeting therefore urged the Federal Government and the states to use the current period of revenue growth to institutionalise reforms that would make federation allocations more predictable while building stronger foundations for long-term economic development.

“The committee noted that sustaining the statutory revenue gains recorded in July 2026 will depend on continued discipline in collection and remittance across Ministries, Departments and Agencies, and reiterated its support for reforms aimed at improving the predictability and growth of allocations to all three tiers of government,” the statement concluded.

The PUNCH reports that FAAC distributed N1.96tn in January, N1.89tn in February, N2.04tn in March, N2.25tn in April, N2.30tn in May and N2.55tn in June.

The total amount distributed between January and June 2026 stood at N12.99tn. With the latest July allocation of N3.007tn, the Federal Government, 36 state governments and 774 local government councils have collectively received N15.997tn from FAAC so far in 2026.

Source: punchng.com

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