Petrol prices in Nigeria may rise further as international crude oil prices surged to $107 per barrel on Thursday from about $100 the previous day.
The latest rally has increased pressure on domestic petrol prices, which have already climbed from about N830 per litre before the Middle East crisis to N1,310 or more in some locations.
Before the crisis began on February 28, crude oil traded below $69 per barrel. However, the subsequent disruption to global oil supplies has pushed international prices sharply higher, prompting the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and fuel importers to adjust their pricing.
With Brent crude now above $107 per barrel and the US-Iran conflict continuing to disrupt tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, marketers and analysts warned that another petrol price increase could be imminent.
According to Oilprice.com, Brent crude surged to $107 per barrel on Thursday as the prolonged military confrontation between the United States and Iran continued to disrupt oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns over a sustained reduction in global crude availability.
The international benchmark gained more than five per cent in early trading, extending the rally that pushed it above the $100 mark earlier in the week.
West Texas Intermediate also climbed above $100 per barrel, reflecting growing global concerns that the conflict may continue to constrain crude supplies.
The latest increase was driven largely by a sharp decline in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Oilprice.com reported that volumes, which had recovered to between six million and nine million barrels per day in previous weeks, had fallen sharply, with recent estimates putting daily outflows below two million barrels.
Shipping trackers also reported that no very large crude carriers had exited the strait since early September, a significant decline from the higher tanker traffic recorded during the brief period of relative calm.
The escalation of attacks on tankers and commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf and surrounding waters has further heightened uncertainty in the oil market.
Iran claimed to have struck several ships, while the United States confirmed the destruction of some Iranian oil tankers. Officials from both sides have given no indication of an imminent ceasefire, with their statements suggesting that the confrontation could continue for weeks or longer.
Analysts said the absence of a clear path towards de-escalation had forced traders to reassess global supply risks.
Physical crude benchmarks had already moved above $100 in recent sessions, while the futures market followed as inventories tightened and alternative export routes faced increased exposure to attacks.
For months, reports of recovering tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had helped to limit upward pressure on crude prices. That outlook has now changed.
With oil flows sharply reduced and no clear diplomatic resolution in sight, global markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility of prolonged disruption to one of the world’s most important energy transit routes.
For Nigeria, sustained increases in international crude prices could continue to feed into the domestic petrol market, particularly as refiners and importers adjust their prices to reflect changes in global crude and related supply costs.
