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N5.6tn debt: Energy crisis looms as gas firms cut supply

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Nigeria faces the threat of nationwide blackouts as gas companies reduce their supply to power plants due to an outstanding N5.6 trillion debt owed to power generation companies.

The development has raised concerns about the stability of the national grid and the country’s ability to sustain its electricity supply.

The Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of the Association of Power Generation Companies, Dr Joy Ogaji, confirmed the development in an interview with The PUNCH on Thursday. She warned that the situation, if not urgently addressed, could push Nigeria deeper into darkness.

This warning came shortly after another national grid collapse threw the entire country into blackout earlier in the week. Although partial restoration has since brought back about 4,000 megawatts, many plants are still operating below capacity.

Ogaji explained that while GenCos remain committed to supporting the country, the liquidity crisis in the sector has spiralled out of control. She disclosed that from January to August 2025 alone, an additional N1.6tn debt had accumulated, bringing the total outstanding to N5.6tn.

She recalled that President Bola Tinubu had met with the GenCos on July 25 to discuss an estimated N4 trillion debt owed to them, covering legacy debts and unpaid invoices. At the meeting, Tinubu appealed for patience while the government completed the verification and validation of the claims. He also approved, in principle, a N4tn bond programme to address the liquidity gap in the sector.

“Almost two months after that meeting, there has been no follow-up engagement with the GenCos on how these debts will be settled,” Ogaji lamented.

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She explained that about 60 per cent of GenCos’ revenues go to gas producers, meaning that the debt burden directly undermines gas supply. With suppliers already reducing deliveries, she warned, the electricity market could soon grind to a halt.

Ogaji stressed that despite the patriotic commitment of operators to keep the lights on, factors outside their control make it nearly impossible to sustain generation. She listed gas supply, maintenance of machines, procurement of spare parts, and obligations to other creditors as key challenges.

“Gas suppliers have already started reducing supply. There are critical maintenance works on our machines, spares to purchase, and other creditors who are no longer willing to wait for payments. They now prioritise those who pay them promptly,” she stated.

According to her, the prevailing market structure is incompatible with Nigeria’s growth ambitions. “No substantial private sector investment will flow into this sector unless urgent reforms are implemented. Only the Federal Government, in collaboration with NBET and NERC, can unlock these challenges,” she said.

The APGC boss revealed that GenCos’ monthly invoices average N270bn, but only about N70bn is paid, leaving N200bn outstanding every month. She faulted the 2025 federal budget, which earmarked N900bn for the power sector without cash backing, calling it grossly inadequate.

She also expressed concerns over the Federal Government’s plan to issue promissory notes to settle the debts. According to her, the details of such instruments remain unclear, raising apprehension among investors.

“Promissory notes and bond proposals go to the root of our contractual agreements in the market. We must understand the terms, conditions, and risks before committing,” she said.

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Ogaji highlighted the risks of such instruments, including interest rate exposure, foreign exchange volatility, credit risk, and liquidity risk. She noted that promissory notes cannot be repurchased in the open market, which creates refinancing risks at maturity.

“GenCos will not make concessions that undermine our obligations to other creditors. Any breach of contractual terms by the government has a ripple effect on our finances and relationships with bankers and other partners,” she warned.

Ogaji urged the Federal Government, the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission, the Debt Management Office, and the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Plc to urgently engage GenCos on viable solutions. She questioned whether the proposed promissory notes would be exclusive to GenCos or open to other government contractors, which could dilute the chances of settlement for power producers.

“GenCos remain patriotic investors, but patriotism alone cannot run power plants. Without urgent action, Nigeria risks another round of prolonged blackouts,” she said.

Efforts to obtain the reaction of the Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, were unsuccessful, as his spokesman, Bolaji Tunji, did not respond to calls or messages.

Meanwhile, the Transmission Company of Nigeria confirmed some recovery on the national grid, with power generation climbing to nearly 4,000 megawatts by Thursday. However, several power plants are yet to resume full output, underscoring the fragility of the system.

Industry stakeholders say that unless the Federal Government swiftly addresses the liquidity crisis and debt overhang, Nigeria’s electricity sector may face deeper collapse, with dire consequences for homes, businesses, and the overall economy.

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Read how Nigerians tap savings, loans to buy Dangote refinery shares

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Some Nigerians seeking to invest in the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE Initial Public Offering have turned to personal savings, loans and proceeds from the sale of assets to raise funds to buy shares, Saturday PUNCH has learnt.

Findings by our correspondents revealed strong interest in the shares among prospective retail investors, some of whom said they expected the investment to yield substantial returns in the future.

While some respondents said they were dipping into savings or raising funds through other means, others said the prevailing economic hardship had made it difficult for them to participate in the offer.

The refinery opened its IPO on Monday, September 14, giving Nigerians an opportunity to own equity in the company.

The offer comprises 4.1 billion ordinary shares priced at N525 each, with the company targeting about N2.15tn to part-fund an expansion that would nearly double the refinery’s capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day.

The minimum subscription is 10 shares, costing N5,250.

Dangote Group Chief Executive Officer, Aliko Dangote, said the low entry threshold was deliberately set to allow ordinary workers, including drivers, cooks and domestic staff, to become shareholders, describing the offer as “the IPO for the people.”

The offer is expected to close on October 13.

Investors turn to savings, loans

A staff member of the Federal Ministry of Works, David Adelabu, described the shares as expensive for struggling civil servants but said he considered the offer an opportunity to become a shareholder in the refinery.

He said, “I have small shares in some companies, including Glo and MTN, but Dangote’s shares will be the highest I will be buying. It is on the high side, but I feel this is an opportunity to become a shareholder in Dangote.

“I understand that the dividends are not going to be immediate, but I don’t mind even if it will entail selling a plot of land I have in Metumbi here in Minna. I will gladly do so.”

A trader in Dutse, Jigawa State, Adamu Bala, said he planned to use savings from his business to buy the shares.

See also  NNPC boosts Dangote refinery crude supply to seven cargoes – Sources

“I will not sell my house. I will use a small profit from my shop to buy,” he said.

Similarly, a civil servant, Fatima Mannir, said women in her group had started raising money through contributions, known as adashe, to participate in the offer.

“We have started raising money through adashe,” she said.

A trader in Damaturu, Yobe State, Malam Musa Ibrahim, said he invested part of his business savings after learning about the offer.

“I am using part of the money I have saved from my business.

“I believe that if I can invest a small amount now, it may become useful to me in the future. But I am also being careful because business is not easy at the moment,” he said.

Another resident, Aisha Mohammed, said she raised money by cutting down on some household expenses.

“I did not borrow money to buy the shares. I have been saving little by little, and when I heard about the offer, I decided to use part of what I had saved,” she said.

A businessman, Abdullahi Yusuf, however, said he obtained financial assistance from a friend to increase his subscription.

“I wanted to buy more shares than what my savings could afford, so I discussed it with a friend who agreed to lend me some money.

“I know that borrowing money to invest carries risks, but I am hoping that the investment will perform well. I will repay the money from my business income,” he said.

A petty trader, Hauwa Lawan, said she sold some personal belongings she no longer used and added the proceeds to her savings to finance her purchase.

“I sold some things that I was no longer using and added the money to my savings,” she said.

A farmer, Mallam Abdullahi Adamu, said he sold farm produce to raise about N500,000 to invest in the shares.

In Kano State, an investor, Abdulmalik Ibrahim, said he bought 10 shares for N5,250 using personal funds.

Hardship keeps some investors away

While some Nigerians are finding ways to participate in the IPO, others said economic pressures had put the investment beyond their reach.

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A civil servant in Kogi State, Saliu Joseph, said he would have loved to invest but had just paid his children’s school fees.

“Right now, I don’t think I can afford to participate unless a miracle happens,” he said.

A retired permanent secretary in the state, Bola Boro, also said he would not participate because he could not afford the investment at the moment.

“As a retired civil servant, I cannot afford such an amount to invest in the offer. Even though I am a fan of investment through the stock market, which I have been doing for years, I don’t think it will be convenient for me to participate considering the time frame of just one month,” he said.

A civil servant, Kuta Abdulahi, said the financial demands of his children’s education had left him unable to participate in the share offer.

“I must tell you the truth, I know about the Dangote Refinery shares, but I cannot even think of it at this time. My children are just resuming a new term in school. Where will I get the money for their school fees before thinking of buying shares? Please, I have a lot on my head,” he said.

Similarly, a vulcaniser, Ahmed Alkali, said his income was barely enough to meet his family’s basic needs, making investment in shares difficult.

“With the kind of job I do, I am working from hand to mouth. So, how can I buy shares when I have not eaten?” he asked.

Experts warn against borrowing

Investment experts, however, cautioned Nigerians against taking loans, selling properties or committing all their savings to the IPO, warning that equity investments carry risks.

Speaking with Saturday PUNCH, the Group Managing Director of Lancelot Group, Adebayo Adeleke, urged prospective investors to understand the risks associated with the capital market before committing their funds to the IPO.

Adeleke, who is also a former Secretary of the Independent Shareholders Association of Nigeria, said capital market investments should be made with funds that investors could afford to leave untouched for the long term, noting that equities were unsuitable for people struggling to meet immediate financial needs.

He said, “When you buy shares, you are buying a portion of the ownership of the business. Investment takes a lot of time to pass through gestation, to stability, to profitability. And you cannot, with any degree of certainty, predict when the company is going to turn the corner and begin to produce profits.

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“So, investment money is not the money you are likely to need in the next two months, three months, six months, even one year. If you cannot part with your money for a minimum of three to five years, the capital market is not the place to invest.”

Adeleke, however, described the IPO as a strategic investment, citing the refinery’s scale and demand for its products.

Also speaking, the Head of Financial Institutions Ratings at Agusto & Co., Ayokunle Olubunmi, urged Nigerians to consider the risks associated with the investment and avoid committing all their savings to the offer.

He said, “There are plenty of risks to this business. It’s not risk-free. Things can get worse for the business. Valuation is based on expectations of what will happen in the future. Things might not go as planned. And, like we all know, equity is a risky business.”

Olubunmi particularly cautioned prospective investors against selling property or using up all their savings to invest in the offer.

He advised them to invest only a portion of their funds and diversify their portfolios.

The expert also advised those considering taking loans to buy the shares to have a separate and reliable repayment plan rather than depending on returns from the investment.

The Emir of Kano, Muhammadu Sanusi II, had earlier warned prospective investors against using their children’s school fees or selling their homes to invest in the shares.

Sanusi, who gave the warning on Thursday while speaking at the company’s roadshow in Kano, urged prospective investors to invest only money they could afford to set aside for some time, suggesting amounts such as N10,000, N20,000 or N30,000.

Source: punchng.com

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ARE NIGERIANS BUILDING CHINA’S ECONOMY WHILE NEGLECTING THEIR OWN?

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While other nations are busy producing, manufacturing and exporting, Nigeria must ask itself a difficult question: Are we building our own economy, or simply creating a bigger market for other countries?

Nigeria has a huge population, abundant natural resources and a massive consumer market. Yet the country continues to depend heavily on imported finished products—from electronics and clothing to machinery, household goods and other consumer items.

The issue is not simply about Chinese businesses or businesses from any other foreign country operating in Nigeria. Foreign investment can bring capital, technology, jobs and expertise.

The bigger issue is whether **Nigerian businesses are being given the opportunity and support to manufacture competitively at home.

Instead of remaining primarily a consumer of finished products, Nigeria needs to strengthen its manufacturing sector and move further up the value chain.

Nigeria needs to produce, not just consume.

A stronger manufacturing economy could help Nigeria:

* Create more jobs for Nigerians
* Add value to locally available raw materials
* Develop industrial skills and technology
* Reduce excessive dependence on imported finished goods
* Build competitive Nigerian companies
* Increase the country’s ability to export

The goal should not be to drive legitimate foreign businesses out of Nigeria. The goal should be to build an economy where **Nigerian manufacturers can compete, grow and eventually take Nigerian-made products to markets around the world.

The question Nigerians should be asking is simple:

**Why should Nigeria remain one of the world’s biggest markets for finished products when we have the potential to manufacture many of them ourselves?

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🇳🇬 **Nigeria must move from being predominantly a consumer nation to becoming a stronger producer, manufacturer and exporter.

What do you think?

Which products should Nigeria prioritize for local manufacturing instead of relying heavily on imports?

Share your thoughts in the comments.

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ICRC defends toll pricing on highways

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The Infrastructure Concession Regulatory Commission has defended the toll pricing structure under the Highway Development and Management Initiative, saying charges are evaluated against the quality and benefits of the upgraded roads.

In a statement made available to PUNCH Online on Thursday, the Director-General, Dr. Jobson Ewalefoh, cited the 227-kilometre Akwanga–Makurdi road corridor as an example.

He said the route has four toll gates, and motorists pay as they travel along it.

He argued that toll payments should be viewed against the previous costs imposed by the poor condition of the road, including lost man-hours, vehicle damage and accident risks.

Feedback from road users, he said, shows many motorists are willing to pay tolls where they see clear improvements in road quality.

Some drivers have expressed support for similar arrangements on other major corridors if the roads are upgraded to the same standard.

“That, to me, is the beauty of a well-structured PPP,” Ewalefoh said.

He explained that negotiators carefully consider toll pricing to keep charges fair. A portion of the revenue is set aside specifically for road maintenance. Under the concession agreements, the government does not bear additional maintenance costs for the duration of the contract.

The government must repair potholes within 48 hours, and it funds major routine repairs from the dedicated toll revenue.

Source: punchng.com

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See also  NNPC boosts Dangote refinery crude supply to seven cargoes – Sources
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