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World Bank dismisses Nigeria’s single-digit inflation target

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The World Bank has said the Federal Government’s ambition to achieve single-digit inflation in the short term is unrealistic, warning that Nigeria remains among a handful of African countries still grappling with high Consumer price inflation.

In its latest Africa’s Pulse report released on Tuesday, the Bank projected that Nigeria, alongside Angola, Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Sudan, Zambia, São Tomé and Príncipe, and Zimbabwe, will continue to record double-digit inflation rates through 2025.

The report revealed that while 37 of Africa’s 47 economies are projected to maintain single-digit inflation by 2026, Nigeria remains an outlier due to persistent structural challenges, including currency depreciation, high food and energy prices, and supply bottlenecks that continue to fuel price instability.

The development contradicts the projection undermines the Federal Government’s optimism that its recent fiscal and monetary reforms, including the FX unification, fuel subsidy removal, and the Central Bank’s tightening measures, would quickly drive inflation down to single digits.

The PUNCH reports that key government officials in the current administration, including the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister for the Economy, Wale Edun, and the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Olayemi Cardoso, have repeatedly assured Nigerians that ongoing fiscal and monetary reforms would help bring inflation down to single digits in the near term.

At the CBN Governor’s Annual Lecture Series at the Lagos Business School, held last week in Lagos, Cardoso said a single-digit inflation rate remains its medium-term target.

The insistence stems from an argument by some research organisations that the National Bureau of Statistics data, which puts the country’s headline inflation at 20.12 per cent, overestimates the general price level.

“The idea is to ensure that in the medium term we achieve single-digit inflation,” he said at the gathering.

But the World Bank in its evaluation noted that despite a broad wave of disinflation sweeping across Sub-Saharan Africa, Nigeria remains one of the few countries still trapped in double-digit inflation, even as price growth across the region slows to historic lows.

The report released biannually is titled, “Pathways to Job Creation in Africa.”

It read, “Consumer price inflation has continued to recede across most Sub-Saharan African

countries, albeit at varying speeds. After peaking at 9.3 per cent in 2022, the region’s

median inflation rate declined to 4.5 per cent in 2024 and is projected to stabilize between

3.9 and 4.0 per cent annually over 2025–26. The number of countries in the region with single-digit inflation rates has increased from 27 in 2022 to 37 in 2025–26.

“In 2025, nearly 60 per cent of Sub-Saharan African countries have experienced a slowdown in consumer price inflation from last year. However, within this group, nine countries, Angola, Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria, São Tomé and Príncipe, Sudan, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, are still expected to record double-digit inflation rates.”

The World Bank said Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy remains resilient despite global economic headwinds, projecting regional growth to accelerate from 3.5 per cent in 2024 to 3.8 per cent in 2025 and an average of 4.4 per cent in 2026–27.

Nigeria’s growth forecast was upgraded by 0.6 percentage points, one of the strongest revisions among major economies, driven by a rebound in oil production and modest investment flows. But the bank warned that inflation remains a key drag on household welfare and business confidence.

“While countries like Ivory Coast and Kenya are benefiting from price stability and easing monetary conditions, Nigeria’s inflation trajectory continues to undermine consumer demand and macroeconomic stability,” the report read.

Economists have attributed Nigeria’s price pressures to a combination of currency depreciation, high energy costs, and food supply disruptions worsened by insecurity and poor logistics.

With more than half of Sub-Saharan African nations expected to maintain inflation rates below five per cent next year, Nigeria’s double-digit figure stands out as an anomaly on the continent.

South Africa, Senegal, and Tanzania have all managed to anchor inflation within single digits, aided by disciplined fiscal policies and efficient foreign exchange management.

“The median inflation in the region is less than four per cent. Moreover, most currencies that were cratering relative to the US dollar have now recovered and are stable,” said Andrew Dabalen, the World Bank’s Chief Economist for Africa. “Nigeria’s situation remains challenging because of exchange rate pass-through and structural supply bottlenecks.”

The Bretton wood institution also cautioned that despite the region’s economic resilience, growth remains insufficient to create enough decent jobs for its expanding labour force.

“External debt service has more than doubled over the past decade, reaching two per cent of GDP in 2024,” the report noted. “The number of Sub-Saharan African countries at high risk of debt distress has nearly tripled since 2014.”

For Nigeria, where unemployment and underemployment persist, the inflation surge has worsened living standards and dampened real income growth.

The report urged African governments to prioritise policies that reduce the cost of doing business, build human capital, and strengthen institutions to attract private investment.

It also identified agribusiness, healthcare, housing, tourism, and mining as sectors with the highest job-creation potential, noting that every job created in tourism spurs 1.5 additional jobs in related sectors.

“Over the next quarter century, Sub-Saharan Africa’s working-age population will grow by more than 600 million,” Dabalen said. “The challenge is ensuring that these people find better jobs in an environment of stability and opportunity.”

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Greenwich Merchant Bank achieves N50bn capitalisation

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Greenwich Merchant Bank on Thursday announced that it has successfully met the N50bn capital requirement mandated by the Central Bank of Nigeria.

According to the bank, in a letter dated September 22, 2025, the CBN confirmed its approval of Greenwich’s N22.6bn fresh capital raised via a Rights Issue and Private Placement. With this, the bank’s approved capital now exceeds the N50bn regulatory threshold.

The CBN’s recapitalisation directive stipulates N50bn as the minimum capital requirement for a merchant bank operating in Nigeria. Having achieved this milestone, Greenwich said it is now better positioned to underwrite larger transactions, offer more competitive financing, and enhance overall service delivery.

Speaking on the achievement, Chairman of Greenwich Group, Mr Kayode Falowo, said, “This is a significant milestone in our growth journey and a strong testament to the resilience and commitment of everyone across the organisation. It positions us strategically for the next phase of our expansion and service excellence.

“We would like to thank our shareholders for their trust in us and applaud the outstanding contributions of our Board and Management in attaining this milestone. We remain committed to driving even greater achievements in the future.”

Also commenting, Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of Greenwich Merchant Bank, Mr Benson Ogundeji, noted, “Our successful capital raise is not just a regulatory compliance milestone; it is proof of the confidence our shareholders have in our vision and the trust our clients and partners have built with us over the years.

“At Greenwich, we see this achievement as a springboard for strengthening our capacity to deliver innovative financial solutions while contributing meaningfully to Nigeria’s economic growth and stability.”

The bank added that, going forward, customers will benefit from greater access to bespoke banking and financing solutions, while investors can expect improved returns driven by expanded deal flow, enhanced market positioning, and long-term value creation.

Greenwich Merchant Bank (formerly Greenwich Trust Limited) is a Nigerian financial institution established in February 1992. It converted to a Merchant Bank in September 2020.

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NDIC seeks stronger CIBN collaboration on emerging risks

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The Managing Director/Chief Executive of the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation, Mr. Thompson Sunday, has called for stronger collaboration between the Corporation and the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria to address emerging risks in the banking sector.

According to a statement from the Corporation on Thursday, Mr. Sunday made the call during a courtesy visit by the President and Chairman of the Council of the CIBN, Prof. Pius Olanrewaju, and his executive team to the NDIC Head Office in Abuja.

Both institutions agreed to strengthen cooperation in areas such as digital banking, cybersecurity, fraud prevention, and risk management.

The NDIC Chief Executive stressed that regulators and operators must work together to build a more resilient financial ecosystem capable of adapting to technological innovation.

He also commended the CIBN for its contribution to professional development in the banking sector and urged the Institute to collaborate more closely with regulators to develop innovative failure-resolution strategies.

Prof. Olanrewaju congratulated Mr. Sunday on his appointment and praised the NDIC’s recent milestones, including the upward review of deposit insurance coverage, faster depositor reimbursement using technology, and the commencement of liquidation dividend payments within one year of Heritage Bank’s closure.

He added that these initiatives had strengthened depositor and investor confidence in the banking system.

Olanrewaju also lauded the NDIC’s active role on the CIBN Governing Council, saying its participation had enhanced oversight, policy direction, and ethical leadership.

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42% of SMEs can’t last a month without income — Moniepoint

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Moniepoint Microfinance Bank has revealed that 42 per cent of Nigeria’s small businesses cannot survive for a month without income, according to findings from the second edition of its Informal Economy Report.

In a statement on Thursday, the bank said the report highlighted the fragile financial position of small businesses that employ a large share of Nigerians.

The report, scheduled for release on Friday, received support from the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment and the Small and Medium Enterprises Development Agency of Nigeria.

“The Informal Economy Report is a robust and important study that examines the informal market and provides fresh insights into its realities.”

“We believe its key outputs will serve ecosystem players and government well in policy direction and execution,” said Managing Director of Moniepoint Microfinance Bank, Mr. Babatunde Olofin.

Nigeria’s informal economy accounts for over 80 per cent of employment and drives most economic activity. For millions excluded from formal job structures, it remains vital for survival and poverty alleviation.

Moniepoint said the report aims to provide evidence-based insights to guide policymakers, regulators, and financial institutions in designing interventions that strengthen and formalise informal enterprises.

The Informal Economy Report 2025 follows the success of the inaugural edition, which earned commendation from the Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment, the Corporate Affairs Commission, SMEDAN, and leading business associations for providing credible data and actionable recommendations.

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