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Electricity Power subsidy hits N418bn, losses exceed N300bn

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The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission has disclosed that the Federal Government incurred a subsidy obligation of N418.79bn in the fourth quarter of 2025, even as inefficiencies across the electricity value chain led to losses exceeding N300bn during the period.

This was contained in the commission’s 2025 fourth-quarter report, which also highlighted declining remittances, high distribution losses, grid instability, and a marginal drop in available generation capacity.

According to the report, total invoices issued by generation companies for electricity produced in the quarter amounted to N804.93bn. However, due to non-cost-reflective tariffs, the government absorbed 52.30 per cent of the cost.

The commission stated, “It is important to note that due to the absence of cost-reflective tariffs across all DisCos, the government incurred a subsidy obligation of N418.79bn; this represents a N39.96bn (-8.71 per cent) reduction in FGN subsidy compared to 2025/Q3.”

The report added that the subsidy covered more than half of generation costs, leaving distribution companies to pay only N386.13bn. “The government subsidy accounted for 52.30 per cent of the total GenCo invoice, which is a 6.60pp decrease compared to 2025/Q3,” the commission noted.

Despite the intervention, the sector recorded significant commercial losses. While the total value of electricity supplied to distribution companies stood at N969.19bn, only N795.06bn was billed to customers.

“The naira value of the total energy offtake by all DisCos in 2025/Q4 was N969.19bn, and the total energy billed was N795.06bn, which translates to a billing efficiency of 82.03 per cent.

The billing efficiency of 82.03 per cent recorded during the quarter represents a decrease of 0.66pp compared to 2025/Q3 (82.69 per cent). At an aggregate level, DisCos cumulatively recorded billing losses of N174.12bn in 2025/Q4,” the report said.

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In addition, high aggregate technical, commercial, and collection losses further weakened sector finances. “The weighted average ATC&C loss across all DisCos in 2025/Q4 was 34.9 per cent, translating to a cumulative revenue loss of N139.19bn across all DisCos,” the report noted.

Combined, the billing losses of N174.12bn and ATC&C revenue losses of N139.19bn indicate inefficiency-driven losses of over N300bn during the quarter. The report also showed that distribution companies received 7,991.22GWh of electricity but billed customers for only 6,614.57GWh, indicating persistent energy accounting inefficiencies.

“Although the total energy received by all DisCos in 2025/Q4 was 7,991.22GWh, the energy billed to end-use customers was only 6,614.57GWh,” it stated.

Collection performance also declined compared to the previous quarter. Market remittances to upstream participants also weakened. DisCos were required to remit N471.66bn but paid only N437.27bn, leaving an outstanding balance of N34.39bn.

This translates to a remittance performance of 92.71 per cent in 2025/Q4 compared to the 95.21 per cent recorded in 2025/Q3.

On operational performance, the commission said available generation capacity averaged 5,400.38 megawatts, representing a slight decline from the third quarter, with several plants recording reduced output.

Seventeen power plants recorded decreases in available generation capacities in 2025/Q4 relative to 2025/Q3, it said.

However, energy generation improved during the quarter. Average hourly generation increased to 4,452.71MWh/h, resulting in total generation of 9,831.58GWh. “The average hourly generation of the grid-connected power plants increased by 273.56MWh/h (+6.55 per cent),” the report stated.

Grid stability concerns also persisted. System frequency and voltage levels fell outside prescribed operating limits. “In 2025/Q4, the average lower daily (49.38Hz) and average upper daily (50.65Hz) system frequencies were outside the normal operating limits,” the commission said.

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The report stated that there was one incident of system disturbance on the national grid in 2025/Q4. A partial collapse of the grid occurred on December 29. The commission warned that the current subsidy regime exposes government finances to uncertainty.

“The current open-ended subsidy regime leaves the FGN exposed to indeterminate subsidy obligation,” it stated, citing generation cost variations and supply mix as key drivers.

The report added that the Q4 subsidy declined partly due to increased energy allocation to premium customers on Band A feeders. “The key driver of this reduction is the increase in energy allocated to Band A customers from 40 per cent to 45 per cent,” the commission said.

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Dangote beats US, ships N757bn jet fuel to Europe – Report reveals

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Dangote Petroleum Refinery exported about 466,000 metric tonnes of jet fuel to Europe in June, valued at an estimated N757bn, overtaking shipments from the United States and others.

This is as Nigerian jet fuel exports to the continent reached their highest level since the country became a net exporter of aviation fuel in 2024.

According to a market report by S&P Global Commodity Insights, the refinery’s exports came as the European jet fuel market turned increasingly bearish following a sharp decline in prices from the highs recorded during the Middle East conflict.

The report stated that flows of jet fuel from Nigeria to Europe rose from 232,000 metric tonnes in May to 466,000 metric tonnes in June, the highest volume exported from the country to Europe since Nigeria became a net exporter of jet fuel in 2024, when the Dangote Refinery commenced aviation fuel production.

The June export volume is equivalent to about 582.5 million litres of jet fuel. At an estimated domestic value of N1,300 per litre, the shipment is worth about N757.25bn.

On the other hand, aviation fuel exports from the United States fell sharply in the past months. The report showed that jet fuel exports from the United States to Europe declined steadily over the same period, falling from a record 818,000 metric tonnes in April to 560,000 metric tonnes in May and further to 399,000 metric tonnes in June, leaving Nigeria as a bigger supplier to Europe during the month.

Commenting on the market, a trader attributed the oversupply partly to increased shipments from Dangote and the United States. “Jet is oversupplied because of high local refinery production; refineries pushed back maintenance to make the most of the high prices.

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“The US and Dangote also shipped large volumes. Now there are some flows resuming through the Suez, too, from the UAE, but let’s see how it goes,” the trader was quoted as saying.

The report noted that the European jet fuel forward curve had weakened significantly after reaching record highs during the Middle East war, as traders now anticipate an oversupplied summer market amid weaker-than-expected aviation demand.

According to Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, the Northwest Europe jet CIF cargo financial assessment for July dropped to $981.75 per metric tonne on June 30, down sharply from the all-time high of $1,694.25 per metric tonne recorded on March 30.

Similarly, the August contract declined from $1,507.50 per metric tonne on March 30 to $968.25 per metric tonne by June 30.

The report added that Europe could receive even more jet fuel supplies in the coming months as the East-West arbitrage remains attractive, encouraging exporters in the Middle East and India to ship cargoes westward.

While flows from the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait were absent in June, shipments from Saudi Arabia increased to about 106,000 metric tonnes, up from 7,000 metric tonnes in May, while exports from India rose from 129,000 metric tonnes to 197,000 metric tonnes over the same period.

Despite the current oversupply, two European jet fuel traders reportedly told Platts that market conditions would depend largely on developments in the Strait of Hormuz and the pace at which Middle Eastern refineries recover from disruptions caused by the recent conflict.

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They also noted that stronger summer travel demand and refiners’ growing preference to maximise diesel production over jet fuel could gradually help rebalance the aviation fuel market.

Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority showed that the Dangote refinery exported an estimated 1.66 billion litres of refined petroleum products in April 2026.

This was during the mounting tensions in the Middle East that caused disruption to global fuel supply routes.

An analysis of the NMDPRA’s April 2026 fact sheet showed that the country exported about 513 million litres of premium motor spirit, popularly called ‘petrol’; 534 million litres of automotive gas oil, also known as diesel; and 615 million litres of aviation fuel within the month in April.

The Dangote refinery is the only major functional refinery in Nigeria that currently produces enough refined petroleum products for both local consumption and export.

Nigeria has become a net petrol exporter for the first time in decades due to rising output from the Dangote refinery. The refinery had earlier exported about 434 million litres of petrol in March after domestic production exceeded local consumption levels.

The latest figures underscore Nigeria’s gradual transition from a major importer of refined petroleum products to an export hub within Africa. It was observed that jet fuel exports may rise further with the instability caused by the Middle East crisis, which disrupted traditional supply chains serving Europe and other regions.

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Shell, banks launch $3bn financing for oil contractors

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Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company Limited has partnered with nine Nigerian banks to launch a $3bn contract finance facility aimed at improving access to credit for indigenous oil and gas contractors executing projects for the company.

According to a statement, the financing scheme, unveiled on Thursday, is designed to provide credit support to local contractors handling projects for SNEPCo and will be available in both naira and United States dollars.

The participating banks are First Bank, Guaranty Trust Bank, Zenith Bank, Access Bank, United Bank for Africa, Stanbic IBTC, Standard Chartered Bank, First City Monument Bank, and Fidelity Bank.

Speaking at the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding in Lagos, the Managing Director of SNEPCo, Ronald Adams, said the initiative aligns with the objectives of the Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry Content Development Act by promoting greater in-country value retention.

“The initiative reflects the spirit of the Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry Content Development Act, which is aimed at in-country value retention. Our partner banks offer capital and discipline.

“SNEPCo brings contracts and domiciliation of payments that de-risk lending.

On their part, the contractors provide performance. Each is accountable to the others, and the mutual accountability gives the arrangement its strength,” he said.

The Vice President, Finance, Shell Nigeria, CJ Akwaeze, said the financing scheme demonstrates Shell’s commitment to supporting the growth of oil and gas operations in Nigeria.

The Chairman of the Petroleum Technology Association of Nigeria, Wole Ogunsanya, who was represented by Dr Joan Faluyi, described the facility as a major boost for indigenous contractors.

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Ogunsanya lauded the initiative as a “gateway to unlocking contractor financing issues, which will also drive efficiency in contract execution.”

Representatives of the participating banks also commended SNEPCo for introducing the financing arrangement, saying the partnership would strengthen local contractors, and pledged their continued support for the initiative.

SNEPCo said Nigerian companies have continued to play significant roles in its operations and project delivery. It noted that earlier this year, 43 wholly Nigerian companies participated in the turnaround maintenance exercise at the Bonga Floating Production Storage and Offloading vessel out of the 53 companies involved in the exercise.

According to the company, the Contract Finance Facility is expected to further strengthen the capacity of Nigerian companies and enhance value delivery in the operations of Nigeria’s premier deepwater producer.

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Nigeria faces lubricant squeeze as imports tighten globally

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Nigeria may face a lubricant supply squeeze in the coming months as tightening global base oil supplies and rising prices limit imports into West Africa, according to a report by global energy and commodity intelligence firm Argus.

The report, based on insights from Argus’ Head of Base Oil Pricing, Gabriella Twinning, said lower availability of base oils and rising global prices linked to disruptions caused by the US-Iran conflict are reducing offers into the West African market despite the announcement of a peace deal.

It noted that West Africa remains heavily dependent on imported base oils, with average annual imports standing at about 135,752 tonnes over the past five years. According to the report, the Dangote refinery expansion includes a base oil production unit, but the facility has yet to commence operations, leaving the region dependent on imports.

“Lower availability of base oils and rising global prices due to the continued disruption associated with the US-Iran war are curbing offers into the West African market despite a peace deal announcement,” Twinning stated.

On the region’s dependence on imports, Twinning said West Africa is a net importer of base oils, with average imports of around 135,752 tonnes annually over the past five years.

The report disclosed that the last major shipments arrived in March, warning that replacement cargoes are unlikely to be available from exporting countries throughout the summer. “The last large shipments arrived in March, and replenishment cargoes look unavailable from exporting nations over the summer,” she stated.

Explaining the supply constraints, Twinning said, “Bulk European Group I volumes, usually used for engine, marine and industrial oil lubricants and greases, are unavailable following PK Orlen’s five-week maintenance shutdown and restart at the end of May.

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“Bulk volumes out of the US are also limited as refiners service domestic demand and stockpile volumes for hurricane season. Crude changeovers at some Group I US refineries are also hampering output.”

The report noted that Nigerian buyers could switch to alternative grades where product formulations permit. “Nigerian buyers could purchase Group II heavy grades as alternatives to Group I where formulations allow. These are more readily available outside Asia. However, Asian sellers are prioritising higher prices from blenders in South America,” Twinning said.

She further stated that volumes from Russia had also declined as several refineries undergo repair works. According to her, higher spot prices are also discouraging purchases into the region.

“Rising spot prices to record highs in June since the start of the conflict will also make any cargo unattractive to West African buyers given the complicated payment process,” Twinning said.

Warning of the implications for the local market, she added that West African blenders would need to increase ex-tank prices and bid levels to compete with buyers in other regions.

“Demand is rising despite the rainy season, when transport and logistics typically slow. This is because no replenishment cargoes have arrived since March and tanks are running dry,” she noted.

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