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World Bank projects Brent crude to average $60

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Brent crude oil prices are expected to fall to an average of $60 per barrel in 2026, the World Bank has forecast, as global supply continues to outstrip demand. The decline marks a continuation of a multi-year moderation in energy prices.

In its latest report, The Commodity Markets Outlook in Eight Charts, the lender predicted that global commodity prices would fall by roughly seven per cent next year, the fourth consecutive annual decline. Energy prices are set to lead the downward trend, with a projected 10 per cent drop in 2026, following a 12 per cent fall in 2025.

The downward pressure on oil prices reflects subdued global economic activity, persistent trade tensions, and policy uncertainty and is compounded by ample oil supplies. Brent crude has already dropped 14 per cent in the first nine months of 2025 amid oversupply and weak demand, particularly from China. However, occasional price spikes were recorded due to geopolitical events and US sanctions on Russian oil.

“OPEC+ has gradually increased production targets throughout 2025, contributing to an approximate three million barrels per day year-on-year rise in global supply,” the World Bank noted.

“With demand expanding by less than one million barrels per day, the oil market is likely to face a sizable surplus in the coming year.”

The report also highlighted that natural gas prices have experienced significant regional variation. US benchmark prices rose 44 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025 due to strong liquefied natural gas demand, while European prices remained largely unchanged.

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Looking ahead, natural gas is expected to stabilise in the United States in 2027 after a moderate 11 per cent increase in 2026, whereas European prices are projected to decline by 11 per cent next year.

The World Bank’s analysis points to broader risks influencing commodity markets, including geopolitical tensions, extreme weather events, and shifts in global trade policy. Despite these uncertainties, energy markets are expected to remain oversupplied, keeping Brent crude prices on a downward trajectory.

“The expected moderation in oil prices is consistent with subdued economic growth and the continued expansion of oil production,” the report stated. “While temporary spikes may occur due to geopolitical events, the overall trend points to a further decline in 2026.”

Furthermore, the World Bank stated that metals and minerals prices are expected to remain broadly stable, while precious metals are projected to gain five per cent, following a record investment-driven surge of more than 40 per cent in 2025. Agricultural prices are anticipated to edge lower amid favourable supply conditions, with food prices stabilising and beverage prices declining by seven per cent next year due to expanding output.

The World Bank also warned that fertiliser prices, which have surged 28 per cent over the past year due to strong demand, trade restrictions, and production shortfalls, are expected to ease gradually in 2026, though remaining elevated compared with the 2015–2019 average.

“Commodity markets continue to face a complex mix of factors,” the report said. “Sluggish global growth, policy uncertainties, and oversupply in key sectors are weighing on prices, while extreme weather events, easing trade tensions, or changes in input costs could shift market dynamics.”

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Lagos enforces 5% tax on gaming winnings

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The Lagos State Government has begun enforcing a five per cent withholding tax on gaming winnings from licensed gaming platforms operating within the state.

The Chief Executive Officer of the Lagos State Lotteries and Gaming Authority, Are Bashir, made this known in a public notice issued on Friday.

He stated that the policy, which takes immediate effect, applies to players’ net winnings and is to be deducted at the point of payout.

Bashir directed all licensed gaming operators in the state to comply immediately with the new tax framework in line with existing Nigerian tax laws and regulatory directives governing the gaming industry.

According to the notice, the five per cent deduction will be automatically withheld before winnings are paid to players and remitted to the Lagos State Internal Revenue Service as the statutory tax authority.

Bashir said the initiative is part of the state’s wider efforts to improve tax compliance, transparency and accountability in the fast-growing gaming sector.

“The measure forms part of Lagos’ broader drive to strengthen tax compliance, transparency, and accountability in the rapidly expanding gaming sector,” the notice read.

He said under the new arrangement, players are required to provide their National Identification Number (NIN) in line with Know Your Customer (KYC) regulations.

Bashir clarified that all deductions and remittances will be handled strictly by licensed gaming operators in accordance with regulatory requirements, adding that players will receive their winnings net of the statutory deduction, with proper records maintained to ensure transparency.

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He further noted that the withholding tax deducted will serve as a tax credit to the player.

“All licensed gaming operators in Lagos State have now been formally directed to commence the deductions with immediate effect,” the notice said.

Bashir reiterated that the policy is aimed at ensuring effective regulation of the gaming industry while aligning both operators and players with existing tax obligations in the state.

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Customs hand over seized N40.7m petrol to NMDPRA

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The Comptroller-General of Customs, Adewale Adeniyi, on Friday handed over 1,650 jerrycans of Premium Motor Spirit, worth N40.7 million, to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority for further investigation.

Addressing journalists at the handover ceremony held at the Customs Training College in Ikeja, Adeniyi said the seized fuel was intercepted at various locations, including Badagry, Owode, Seme, and other axes within Lagos State.

Represented by the National Coordinator of Operation Whirlwind, Deputy Comptroller-General Abubakar Aliyu, Adeniyi said the contraband was intercepted over the past nine weeks.

“In the space of nine weeks, our operatives intensified surveillance and enforcement across critical border communities. A total of 1,650 jerrycans of 25 litres each were seized along notorious smuggling routes, including Adodo, Seme, Owode Apa, Ajilete, Idjaun, Ilaro, Badagry, Idiroko, and Imeko. The total duty-paid value of the PMS is N40.7 million,” Adeniyi said.

He added that three tankers used to transport the fuel were carrying 60,000, 45,000, and 49,000 litres respectively, totalling 154,000 litres of PMS.

According to Adeniyi, the interception was the result of intelligence-driven operations and the vigilance of Operation Whirlwind in safeguarding Nigeria’s economy and energy security.

He explained that the transportation and movement of petroleum products are governed by regulatory frameworks and standard operating procedures designed to prevent diversion, smuggling, hoarding, and economic sabotage.

“These items contravened the established Standard Operating Procedures of Operation Whirlwind,” Adeniyi said, emphasising that such violations undermine government policy, distort market stability, and deprive the nation of critical revenue.

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He warned that border corridors such as Owode, Seme, and Badagry remain sensitive economic arteries. “These routes have historically been exploited for illegal cross-border petroleum movement. Under our watch, there will be no safe haven for economic sabotage,” he said.

Adeniyi said the handover to NMDPRA reflects inter-agency collaboration. “While Customs enforces border control and anti-smuggling mandates, NMDPRA regulates distribution and ensures compliance with downstream laws. This collaboration ensures due process, transparency, and regulatory integrity,” he said.

Representing NMDPRA, Mrs. Grace Dauda said the agency ensures that petroleum products produced in Nigeria are consumed domestically. “It is unfortunate that some businessmen attempt to smuggle the product out of the country. The public must work together to stop economic sabotage,” she said.

Operation Whirlwind is a special tactical enforcement operation launched by the Nigeria Customs Service in 2024 to combat cross-border smuggling of petroleum products, particularly PMS, and other contraband that threaten Nigeria’s economic security. It was established in response to a surge in illegal fuel diversion across the country.

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Stocks drop, oil rises after Trump Iran threat

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Most Asia equities fell and oil prices rose on Friday after Donald Trump ratcheted up Middle East tensions by hinting at possible military strikes on Iran if it did not make a “meaningful deal” in nuclear talks.

The remarks fanned geopolitical concerns and cast a pall over a tentative rebound in markets following an AI-fuelled sell-off this month.

Traders are also looking ahead to the release of US data later in the day that will provide a fresh snapshot of the world’s top economy.

A slew of forecast-beating figures over the past few days have lifted optimism about the outlook but tempered expectations for more interest rate cuts.

The US president told the inaugural meeting of the “Board of Peace”, his initiative to secure stability in Gaza, that Tehran should make a deal.

“It’s proven to be over the years not easy to make a meaningful deal with Iran. We have to make a meaningful deal otherwise bad things happen,” he said, as he deployed warships, fighter jets and other military hardware to the region.

He warned that Washington “may have to take it a step further” without any agreement, adding: “You’re going to be finding out over the next probably 10 days.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier warned: “If the ayatollahs make a mistake and attack us, they will receive a response they cannot even imagine.”

The threats come days after the United States and Iran held a second round of Omani-mediated talks in Geneva as Washington looks to prevent the country from getting a nuclear bomb, which Tehran says it is not pursuing.

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The prospect of a conflict in the crude-rich Middle East has sent oil prices surging this week, and they extended the gains Friday to sit at their highest levels since June.

Equity traders were also spooked.

Hong Kong fell as it reopened from a three-day break, while Tokyo, Sydney, Wellington and Bangkok were also down. However, Seoul continued to rally to a fresh record thanks to more tech buying, with Singapore, Manila and Mumbai also up.

City Index market analyst Matt Simpson said a strike was not certain.

“At its core, this looks like pressure and leverage rather than a prelude to invasion,” he wrote.

“The US is pairing military readiness with stalled nuclear negotiations, signalling it has credible strike options if talks fail. That doesn’t automatically translate into boots on the ground or a regime-change campaign.

“While military assets dominate headlines, diplomacy is still in motion. The fact talks are continuing at all suggests both sides are still probing for a diplomatic off-ramp before tensions harden further.”

Shares in Jakarta slipped even after Trump and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto reached a trade deal after months of wrangling.

The accord sets a 19 percent tariff on Indonesian goods entering the United States. The Southeast Asian country had been threatened with a potential 32 percent levy before the pact.

Jakarta also agreed to $33 billion in purchases of US energy commodities, agricultural products and aviation-related goods, including Boeing aircraft.

– Key figures at around 0700 GMT –

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.1 percent at 56,825.70 (close)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.7 percent at 26,508.98

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Shanghai – Composite: Closed for holiday

West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.9 percent at $67.05 per barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: UP 0.9 percent at $72.27 per barrel

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1756 from $1.1767 on Thursday

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3448 from $1.3458

Euro/pound: DOWN at 87.42 pence from 87.43 pence

Dollar/yen: UP at 155.17 yen from 155.07 yen

New York – Dow: DOWN 0.5 percent at 49,395.16 (close)

London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.6 percent at 10,627.04 (close)

AFP

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