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Food imports soar 45% as local production falters

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Food and beverage imports increased to N677.3bn in the first half of 2025, a 44.48 per cent rise from N468.76bn in the same period of 2024, prompting renewed calls for stronger government support to enhance local industry capacity and reduce dependency on imports.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that while the value of primary food and beverage imports mainly for household consumption surged, the value of processed food and beverages consumed by households recorded a marginal 1.85 per cent decline, falling from N699.58bn in H1 2024 to N686.81bn in H1 2025.

Meanwhile, primary food and beverage imports mainly for industrial use grew in six months by 1.37 per cent from N969.22bn to N982.49bn, while processed imports for industrial use rose by 7.28 per cent from N984.16bn to N1.06tn in the same period.

This came as members of the Organised Private Sector who spoke to The PUNCH in separate phone interviews linked the surge in food imports to weak local production, insecurity, inconsistent agricultural policy, and consumer preference for imported products perceived to have better quality and availability.

Trust deficiency

The Chairman of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Agricultural and Allied Group, Tunde Banjoko, said the figures reflected a lack of trust in locally produced raw materials and food items.

“From this data, what one can simply infer is that people trust the quality and integrity of imported raw materials, foodstuff, and beverages for household consumption more than what is being produced locally,” he said.

Banjoko noted that factors such as price competitiveness, quality control, and availability played significant roles in shaping consumer preferences.

He added, “We are still battling with inadequate funding to do things properly the way they ought to be done. The quality of our seedlings, the use of chemicals, and our production processes are still affecting the overall output.”

The LCCI agric group chief added that the country’s poor storage systems and weak commodity boards had worsened the problem, leading to seasonal shortages of local produce.

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He advised the Federal Government to establish stronger funding mechanisms for agribusinesses and guarantee offtake systems through commodity boards to stabilise supply. “We need to get proper storage and make them available.

Commodity boards need a guarantee of offtake so that these products can be available, stored properly, and made available to the market when needed,” Banjoko stressed.

He maintained that the government must act to ensure businesses are scalable and interesting to local producers so that they can compete effectively. With the right policies, these numbers should begin to drop and ease pressure on foreign exchange,”

Insecurity crippling output

The President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, Dr Femi Egbesola, explained that insecurity and low technological adoption in agriculture were among the main reasons Nigeria continued to rely on food imports.

Egbesola said, “Most of the farmers are no longer on the farms because of insecurity. Many farmlands have been deserted. That is where the primary products come from. It is when the farmers plant and harvest. That is when the manufacturers and other users can buy from them and use them as their inputs. This time, many of the farms are deserted.”

He noted that Nigeria’s agricultural productivity remained far below global standards due to the use of outdated tools and practices.

“For instance, what it takes to produce 10 tons of cassava in Nigeria requires about 30 acres of land, whereas in the Netherlands, the same 10 tons come from just three plots. That shows how far behind we are in technology use,” he said.

He urged the government to integrate technology into farming, upgrade peasant farmers, and invest in agricultural mechanisation to close the production gap.

“To Small and Medium-sized Enterprises, this wide gap presents investment opportunities. It’s a sign that there is strong business potential in local production if we can look inward and bridge these deficits,” Egbesola said.

The Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, attributed the rise in food and beverage imports partly to government import waivers and increased demand for staple foods such as wheat-based products.

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“The biggest driver of food imports is in the wheat value chain; bread, pastries, and noodles, which are staple foods in Nigeria,” Yusuf explained.

He said the Federal Government’s 180-day waiver to import maize and brown rice in 2024 had influenced the 2025 figures, as many of those imports entered the country early this year. “Another factor is that the data are in naira terms, and with currency depreciation, the import values appear higher even if the physical quantities are not significantly more,” he added.

Yusuf advised the government to focus on improving agricultural value chains, supporting wheat alternatives, and reducing policy inconsistencies that discourage local investors.

Purchasing power

Meanwhile, the Director-General of the Nigerian Association of Small and Medium Enterprises, Eke Ubiji, lamented rising economic hardship. He cautioned that the rising import figures did not suggest that Nigerians’ purchasing power had improved.

“I strongly doubt that these numbers mean consumers’ purchasing power has increased. Many people have reduced what they buy because of inflation,” Ubiji said.

The NASME chief noted that the growth in imports may reflect industrial demand rather than increased household consumption, as consumers have increasingly turned to smaller, cheaper product sizes.

He said, “Even people who were not used to eating instant noodles before are now eating them because that’s what their money can afford. The economy has forced consumers to adjust downward.”

Ubiji criticised government claims of improvement in living conditions, noting that essential food items remained unaffordable for many Nigerians.

Stakeholders agreed that reversing Nigeria’s growing reliance on food and beverage imports required coordinated policy action across the agricultural, manufacturing, and trade sectors.

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They urged the Federal Government to tackle insecurity, strengthen value addition in local production, incentivise agribusiness investment, and improve access to finance for farmers and processors.

Banjoko summed it up: “If we can make local production sustainable and competitive through funding, technology, and storage infrastructure, Nigeria can reduce its import dependence and ease pressure on foreign exchange.”

Fight for food security

The Federal Government has long battled to ensure food security in Nigeria. Official statistics have identified food inflation as a major aggravator of core inflation. Nigerians have found it increasingly difficult to access food over the past five years owing to import restrictions of the former President Muhammadu Buhari administration and insecurity.

The inflationary trend began to soften with the President Bola Tinubu administration’s national emergency on food security, which freed up import restrictions for 150 days on selected food items, including rice. Notably, local farmers decried the policy as reversing gains made in building the country’s self-sufficiency.

Whereas the Federal Government has lauded its efforts in executing the temporary import duty waiver for bringing down food prices, the rebased Consumer Price Index has also deemphasised the weight of food baskets in the inflation calculation.

Present food inflation figures are dropping, according to NBS data. As of September 2025, the food inflation rate was 16.87 per cent on a year-on-year basis. It was 20.9 percentage points lower compared to the rate recorded in September 2024 (37.77 per cent).

Stakeholders have warned of lingering risks to food supply and affordability. The PUNCH earlier reported that Nigeria’s agricultural import bill soared to N2.22tn in the first half of 2025, signifying more imported food to meet the growing needs of the local population.

Yet, farmers, rice millers, and stakeholders argued that the Federal Government’s policies are undermining local production and worsening food insecurity.

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Highest bidder won’t automatically get oil blocks — FG

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The Federal Government on Tuesday said the highest financial bidder would not automatically emerge as the winner of an oil block in the ongoing 2025 Licensing Round, insisting that technical competence and operational capability would play a decisive role in determining successful bidders.

Speaking at the 2025 Commercial Bid Conference in Abuja, the Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, said the commission’s evaluation process was designed to ensure petroleum assets were awarded to companies capable of developing them, rather than firms that simply submitted the highest financial offers.

She said the assessment process was rigorous, objective and aimed at securing the best long-term value for Nigeria’s upstream petroleum sector.

“The evaluation was rigorous. It was objective. It was simple. And it was to place assets in the hands of bidders capable of delivering the best overall long-term value. It wasn’t, or it isn’t going to be just about your ability to be the highest bidder.

“We want to ensure that you have the right capabilities to deliver the assets, in addition to having the financial resources to deliver these assets. The team carefully assessed each bidder’s competence and experience, organisational and operational capacity, credibility of their proposed work programme, resource commitment to execution, and the ability to deliver within the proposed time frame,” Eyesan said.

She explained that the commission assessed bidders based on competence, experience, operational capacity, the credibility of their work programmes, resource commitment and their ability to execute projects within specified timelines.

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“Today, the commercial components of the qualified bids will be opened. And as was said earlier, forget whatever you’ve been told, forget whatever you’ve heard, nobody has seen anybody’s commercial bids. And we will demonstrate that today.

“This approach of ensuring close bids is in recognition of the fact that these equities must be operated by credible, competent operators. Not, I repeat, by operators who can bid the highest,” she added.

The commercial bid opening marks the final stage of the licensing process before the successful companies are announced.

PUNCH Online reports that the 2025 Licensing Round was announced on November 11, 2025, in line with the Petroleum Industry Act 2021, with 50 oil and gas blocks offered across seven sedimentary basins.

The assets comprise 16 Niger Delta onshore blocks, 18 shallow water blocks, one deep offshore block, three blocks in the Benin Basin, four in the Anambra Basin, four in the Chad Basin and four in the Benue Trough.

The bid portal opened on December 1, 2025, while a pre-bid conference was held on January 14, 2026, in Lagos to guide prospective investors on the bidding requirements.

Registration and prequalification submissions closed on February 27, 2026, with the prequalification process completed on March 16.

Under the licensing guidelines, winning bids are determined through a weighted evaluation of signature bonus commitments, proposed work programmes and performance security, combining both technical and commercial scores rather than financial offers alone.

The framework is intended to ensure that petroleum assets are awarded to investors with the financial strength, technical expertise and operational capacity required to accelerate exploration and production in Nigeria’s upstream sector.

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FG securities deliver positive real returns to investors

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Nigeria’s fixed-income market is offering investors something that has been scarce in recent years – real returns that outpace the inflation rate.

When investment returns beat the inflation rate, investors gain, as the value of their money grows in purchasing power terms, not just in nominal value. This is exactly what the Federal Government bonds and treasury bills now offer investors.

Headline inflation fell to 15.91 per cent in June 2026 from 15.93 per cent in May, halting three straight months of increases, according to the National Bureau of Statistics showed.

The slight decline has been enough to push the yields on some government debt instruments above the inflation rate, allowing investors to preserve and grow their purchasing power after a long period of negative real returns.

The improvement, however, has not extended to all products. The latest FGN Savings Bond, targeted mainly at retail investors, still offers a maximum coupon of 15.716 per cent, leaving it marginally below the prevailing inflation rate.

But higher sovereign borrowing costs have largely driven the return to positive real yields. At the June FGN bond auction, the January 2035 and April 2037 bonds cleared at marginal rates of 18.34 per cent and 18.35 per cent, translating to positive real returns of roughly 244 basis points above June’s inflation rate.

Likewise, the 364-day treasury bill sold at the 15 July auction recorded a stop rate of 17.66 per cent, still remaining ahead of inflation.

There is a stronger investor appetite as market participants reposition their portfolios.

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Treasury bill turnover increased 137.49 per cent to N1.51tn, while FGN bond turnover climbed 75.91 per cent to N1.20tn in the week ended 19 June, reflecting stronger trading activity across the sovereign debt market.

“Positive real returns make treasury bills and government bonds attractive again because investors are rewarded in real, inflation-adjusted terms,” said an emerging markets expert, Ike Ibeabuchi.

The Financial Markets Dealers Association said pricing in the domestic fixed-income market continues to be shaped by inflation expectations and liquidity conditions, even as several major central banks around the world begin shifting towards monetary policy easing.

Analysts, however, caution that the current period of attractive inflation-adjusted returns may be temporary. A former central banker, Chukwunonso Iheoma, estimates the Monetary Policy Rate to fall to 25.5 per cent by the last quarter of 2025.

Standard Chartered, on the other hand, expects the MPR to decline to 25 per cent by the end of 2026. Chief economist, Razia Khan, said the bank now sees room for 150 basis points of monetary easing this year. An Abuja-based fixed income analyst, Joshua Tan, agreed with Khan, but stressed that impending higher energy prices could kibosh positive expectations about lower inflation and interest rate cuts this year.

Cowry Research expects the Monetary Policy Committee to retain its cautious stance at its July meeting but believes sustained moderation in inflation could open the door to the first interest rate cut in September.

But S&P Global warned that rising energy prices could erode the positive real returns currently available on government securities: “Increases in fuel costs as a result of the war in the Middle East have driven up costs among sub-Saharan African companies, putting upwards pressure on inflation and likely bringing to an end cycle of interest rate easing seen in a number of economies in the region.”

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A Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the University of Uyo, Prof Akpan Ekpo, noted that the MPC would likely maintain the current rate because of the uncertainty created by the US-Iran conflict.

According to GTI Limited, Treasury bills, particularly the 364-day instruments, currently provide the strongest mix of yield, liquidity and inflation protection. In contrast, FGN Savings Bonds remain slightly below inflation, highlighting the widening gap between institutional fixed-income instruments and retail-focused savings products.

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Oil cargoes meant for naira-for-crude deal supplied to Dangote – NNPC

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has insisted that it supplied all available crude oil cargoes allocated under the Federal Government’s naira-for-crude initiative to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, saying there had been no withholding on its part.

The national oil company stated this even as a top management official of the Dangote Group disclosed exclusively to The PUNCH that the refinery was receiving just four million barrels of crude oil monthly under the arrangement, instead of about 13 million barrels envisaged after President Bola Tinubu’s 2024 directive.

The refinery had attributed its decision to switch from naira-denominated fuel sales to dollar transactions to the crude supply shortfall, saying it would also increase exports of refined petroleum products to earn foreign exchange.

Responding on Monday, the NNPC, through its spokesman, Andy Odeh, said the company had fully discharged its obligations under the naira-for-crude policy. “As a 7.25 per cent equity shareholder in Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals, NNPC Limited has a direct and genuine interest in seeing the refinery operate at full capacity. That is not in dispute.

“What the figures being cited require is context. Under the naira-denominated crude supply arrangement, NNPC Limited has allocated 100 per cent of all available naira crude cargoes to DPRP in 2026 — there has been no withholding on our part. Actual off-take in any period is shaped by several variables: crude availability, nomination timelines, and the refinery’s own operational scheduling.

Odeh said the NNPC has met its obligations to the refinery, saying the two parties are resolving any existing gaps together. “NNPC Limited has met its 2026 supply obligations to the refinery. Our engagement with DPRP management remains constructive, and where any gaps exist, we are resolving them together — as the partners we are.

“A fully supplied, fully operational Dangote refinery serving the Nigerian market is an obligation NNPC Limited shares without reservation,” he added.

However, the Dangote Group maintained that the crude volumes supplied under the arrangement were inadequate to sustain naira-denominated fuel sales.

A top management official of the Dangote Group had told The PUNCH that crude supply under the naira-for-crude arrangement had been limited to just four million barrels monthly despite the increase in Nigeria’s crude oil production.

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The official, who pleaded anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, said the refinery was now set to export a larger percentage of its products in exchange for foreign exchange.

“Since the traders have brought lots of imported products to the market, we are focusing on exports. We can’t, and we shouldn’t be fighting against the government’s policies,” the source said.

Our correspondent told the official that exporting without adequately supplying the domestic market would not be good for the country, but he responded with a question: “Is issuing massive import licences and releasing forex for imports good for the country, when 45 per cent of our production can meet 100 per cent of the entire country’s requirements in terms of petrol, diesel and aviation fuel?”

When told that the NNPC said it had increased crude supply to the Dangote refinery, the official replied, “Do you think that they will keep quiet if we process the naira crude and export the products? We are getting just four million barrels monthly.”

With the sale of petrol in dollars to local marketers, the Dangote official disclosed that the refinery would now process whatever crude it receives under the naira arrangement and supply the equivalent refined products in naira to the Nigerian market through the NNPC.

“We will account for every barrel of crude we receive against the naira payment by supplying equivalent products in naira. We will do that through the NNPC. The NNPC buys a lot from us,” he said.

The refinery had maintained that the inability to secure the expected crude volumes under the naira-for-crude initiative compelled it to abandon naira-denominated fuel sales and adopt dollar pricing for petroleum products.

Last week, the refinery announced a new dollar-denominated pricing template, fixing the ex-depot price of petrol at $0.779 per litre, diesel at $1.087 per litre and aviation fuel at $0.942 per litre.

The move has drawn criticism from petroleum marketers, who warned that it could increase pressure on fuel prices, although the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority said the decision was consistent with the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act, which allows refiners to recover their costs.

Supply worsens

Meanwhile, petrol supply in the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, worsened on Monday with the closure of some major filling stations in Abuja and a fresh increase in the pump price of petrol.

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Checks by one of our correspondents showed that some stations operated by NNPC Limited and MRS along the Airport Road Expressway were shut when visited on Monday.

At stations that were dispensing the product, petrol was being sold at between N1,250 and N1,280 per litre. Bovas sold petrol at N1,250 per litre, while Azman Filling Station at 6th Avenue dispensed the product at N1,280 per litre. Salbas also sold petrol at N1,280 per litre.

The development has further heightened concerns among motorists and other consumers over the rising cost and availability of petrol in the nation’s capital. For motorists in Abuja, Monday’s development meant longer searches for petrol, closed stations and prices as high as N1,280 per litre at outlets that had the product available.

Meanwhile, truck traffic has surged across major private petroleum depots in Lagos as marketers scramble for petrol supplies following the fifth consecutive day of suspended loading at Dangote Petroleum Refinery amid growing expectations that wholesale prices could rise when operations resume.

Expert reacts

Meanwhile, Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics and Principal Facilitator at the FUPRE Energy Business School, Wumi Iledare, said the Dangote refinery’s decision to sell petrol in dollars should be viewed within the broader context of petroleum economics and Nigeria’s energy security rather than merely the currency in which products are priced.

According to Iledare, the move is a commercial response to the realities of the global oil market, where crude oil, the refinery’s major feedstock, is traded in United States dollars.

Iledare explained that pricing refined products in dollars enables the refinery to reduce its exposure to exchange rate volatility and provides greater revenue certainty, although it shifts part of the foreign exchange risk to fuel marketers and, ultimately, consumers, where the costs are passed on.

He stressed that the refinery’s dollar pricing would not automatically translate to higher fuel prices, noting that domestic petrol prices would instead become more closely tied to movements in international crude oil prices and the naira-dollar exchange rate.

“Does this necessarily mean higher fuel prices? Not necessarily. What it does mean is that domestic fuel prices become more closely linked to two key variables: international crude oil prices and the naira-dollar exchange rate. If crude prices rise or the naira weakens, pump prices are likely to increase. Conversely, if crude prices decline or the naira strengthens, consumers should also expect prices to adjust downward. That is how a market-oriented pricing system is expected to function,” he said.

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The petroleum expert maintained that despite concerns over dollar-denominated pricing, the Dangote refinery had strengthened Nigeria’s energy security by reducing dependence on imported petrol and improving the availability of petroleum products.

He, however, noted that domestic refining alone could not guarantee affordability, saying fuel prices would continue to depend on exchange rate stability, international crude prices, logistics costs and the level of competition in the downstream sector.

“The refinery has significantly improved the availability of petroleum products by reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported PMS. That alone makes the country less vulnerable to disruptions in international supply chains and enhances supply reliability.

“This is why I would say that Dangote Refinery can shield Nigeria more effectively from supply shocks than from price shocks. Domestic refining improves energy security, but it cannot completely insulate Nigeria from global petroleum market dynamics because crude oil still has an international opportunity cost, whether it is refined in Lagos, Rotterdam, or Houston,” he stated.

On the implications for the naira, Iledare argued that pricing petroleum products in dollars would not automatically weaken the local currency. “As for the impact on the naira, the answer is more nuanced than many assume. Dollar pricing by itself does not automatically weaken the naira. What matters is whether the arrangement increases or reduces Nigeria’s net demand for foreign exchange,” he said.

He urged policymakers to focus less on the currency in which petroleum products are priced and more on building an efficient and competitive downstream market.

“The real issue is therefore not the currency of pricing. The real issue is whether Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market satisfies the four tests of good public policy: efficiency, effectiveness, equity, and ethics. Those are the standards by which this development should be judged,” he added.

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