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Nigeria’s inflation eased to 14.45% in November, says NBS

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Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased further in November 2025 as consumer price pressures moderated under the new base year, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report released by the National Bureau of Statistics.

In the report published on its website on Monday, NBS said the Consumer Price Index rose to 130.5 points in November 2025 from 128.9 points in October, reflecting a 1.6-point increase month on month, but the headline inflation rate declined to 14.45 per cent year on year, compared with 16.05 per cent recorded in October 2025.

“The Consumer Price Index rose to 130.5 in November 2025, reflecting a 1.6-point increase from the preceding month (128.9).

“In November 2025, the Headline inflation rate eased to 14.45 per cent relative to the October 2025 headline inflation rate of 16.05 per cent.

“Looking at the movement, the November 2025 Headline inflation rate showed a decrease of 1.6 per cent compared to the October 2025 Headline inflation rate,” the NBS report read.

On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation stood at 1.22 per cent in November, higher than the 0.93 per cent recorded in October, indicating that average prices still increased at a faster pace during the month despite the moderation in annual inflation.

The statistical agency noted that on a year-on-year basis, headline inflation in November 2025 was 20.15 percentage points lower than the 34.60 per cent recorded in November 2024, largely reflecting the effect of the rebasing exercise, with the new base year set at 2024 instead of 2009.

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Data from the report showed that the average CPI for the twelve months ending November 2025 increased by 20.41 per cent compared with the average of the preceding twelve months, representing a sharp slowdown from the 32.77 per cent recorded in November 2024.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the largest contributor to headline inflation on a year-on-year basis, accounting for 5.78 percentage points, followed by restaurants and accommodation services at 1.87 percentage points and transport at 1.54 percentage points.

Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels contributed 1.22 percentage points, while education services and health accounted for 0.90 and 0.88 percentage points, respectively.

At the month-on-month level, food and non-alcoholic beverages also drove price increases, contributing 0.49 percentage points, followed by restaurants and accommodation services at 0.16 percentage points and transport at 0.13 percentage points.

A breakdown of inflation across locations showed that urban inflation stood at 13.61 per cent year on year in November 2025, representing a steep decline of 23.49 percentage points from the 37.10 per cent recorded in November 2024.

On a month-on-month basis, urban inflation slowed to 0.95 per cent from 1.14 per cent in October, while the twelve-month average urban inflation rate eased to 20.80 per cent.

In contrast, rural inflation was higher at 15.15 per cent year on year in November, although this was still 17.12 percentage points lower than the 32.27 per cent recorded in the corresponding period of 2024.

Month-on-month rural inflation accelerated sharply to 1.88 per cent from 0.45 per cent in October, reflecting stronger price pressures in rural areas during the month.

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Food inflation also moderated significantly on an annual basis. The NBS reported that food inflation stood at 11.08 per cent year on year in November 2025, down by 28.85 percentage points from 39.93 per cent recorded in November 2024.

However, month-on-month food inflation rose to 1.13 per cent from a contraction of 0.37 per cent in October, driven by price increases in items such as dried tomatoes, cassava tubers, shelled periwinkle, ground pepper, eggs, crayfish, egusi, oxtail, and fresh onions.

The average annual food inflation rate for the twelve months ending November 2025 was 19.68 per cent, compared with 38.67 per cent in the corresponding period of 2024.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, stood at 18.04 per cent year on year in November 2025, down from 28.75 per cent in November 2024.

On a month-on-month basis, core inflation eased slightly to 1.28 per cent from 1.42 per cent in October, while the twelve-month average core inflation rate fell to 20.76 per cent.

Other sub-indices showed that farm produce inflation stood at 0.79 per cent in November, compared with zero per cent in October, while energy inflation rose to 1.08 per cent from 0.50 per cent.

Services inflation increased to 1.82 per cent from 1.54 per cent, and goods inflation rose to 0.79 per cent from 0.63 per cent in the previous month.

At the state level, Rivers recorded the highest year-on-year all-items inflation rate at 17.78 per cent, followed by Ogun at 17.65 per cent and Ekiti at 16.77 per cent.

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Plateau recorded the lowest year-on-year inflation at 9.13 per cent, alongside Kebbi at 10.32 per cent and Katsina at 10.60 per cent.

On a month-on-month basis, Bayelsa recorded the highest increase at 6.58 per cent, followed by Gombe at 5.11 per cent and Edo at 4.45 per cent, while Plateau, Delta, and Kaduna recorded declines.

Food inflation at the state level showed that Kogi recorded the highest year-on-year increase at 17.83 per cent, followed by Ogun at 16.52 per cent and Rivers at 16.11 per cent.

Imo, Katsina, and Akwa Ibom recorded the slowest rise in food prices on a year-on-year basis. Month-on-month food inflation was highest in Yobe at 9.52 per cent, Katsina at 6.61 per cent, and Ondo at 6.04 per cent, while Imo, Nasarawa, and Enugu recorded declines.

The NBS cautioned that interstate comparisons should be interpreted carefully, noting that CPI weights vary across states based on consumption patterns, which can make direct comparisons of inflation baskets misleading.

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Nigerian states’ revenues rise 93%, but education spending drops — World Bank

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The World Bank says Nigeria’s 36 states recorded a 93 per cent increase in revenues between 2023 and 2025 but education received a declining share of the sector’s expenditure.

The bank disclosed this in its latest Nigeria Development Update, which examined how increased public revenues have influenced spending priorities across the federation.

The report was made available to the News Agency of Nigeria by the World Bank in Washington D.C.

According to the report, states’ aggregate revenues rose by approximately 93 per cent in real terms, while expenditure increased by 92 per cent during the period.

The report attributed the improvement partly to exchange-rate reforms, petrol subsidy removal, stronger revenue administration and increased allocations from the federation account.

It said states also benefited from refunds, settlement of longstanding federal obligations, intervention funds, and stronger Value Added Tax collections.

However, education’s share of total state expenditure declined from 14.9 per cent in 2021 to 12.1 per cent in 2025, according to the report.

Health expenditure remained broadly stable at approximately seven per cent, while social protection’s share increased from 1.4 per cent to 4.4 per cent.

The bank said capital expenditure increased significantly, accounting for 61 per cent of state spending, compared with 46 per cent previously.

Transport infrastructure recorded the largest increase, alongside substantial spending on housing, agriculture and other economic investments.

The report quoted Mathew Verghis, the World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, as saying that increased revenues provided the opportunity to improve infrastructure, education, healthcare, and water services.

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He said greater spending efficiency, accountability and improved service delivery were essential to ensuring that additional public resources benefited Nigerians.

The bank acknowledged improvements in states’ fiscal reporting, transparency and internally generated revenue.

It, however, stressed that stronger investment in human capital was necessary to translate economic reforms into sustainable employment and improved living standards.

The report also projected average economic growth of 4.4 per cent between 2026 and 2028, subject to sustained reforms and improved service delivery.

It urged federal and state authorities to ensure that increased public revenues translated into tangible improvements in Nigerians’ welfare.

NAN

Source: punchng.com

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Nigeria promotes investment without building production capacity – UNILAG don

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A professor of Comparative Political Economy at the University of Lagos, Adelaja Odukoya, has asserted that Nigeria’s economic policies promote investment without sufficiently strengthening domestic production.

Odukoya argued that the contradiction had weakened the country’s productive foundations, with policies encouraging investment and entrepreneurship while failing to create the technological capacity, productive employment and processing industries needed to drive sustainable development.

Odukoya spoke at the maiden edition of the Adeleke University Toyin Falola Annual Lecture, held on Thursday at the Performing Arts Theatre, Adeleke University, Ede.

The lecture had as its theme, “History, Power and Accumulation: Reimagining Africa in the Globally Disorderly Order.”

Odukoya identified several contradictions in the way the Nigerian state manages economic activity.

He said, “The state promotes investment without creating conditions for technological transfer. It encourages entrepreneurship without generating sufficient productive employment.

“It expands primary-product exports while leaving processing capacity undeveloped. It constructs infrastructure without establishing strong linkages with domestic production.”

According to him, the contradictions explain why increased economic activity and accumulation do not necessarily translate into development.

“Accumulation is not synonymous with development,” Odukoya stated.

He argued that genuine development should be measured by the expansion of productive, technological, institutional and human capabilities.

“A country could attract investment, export minerals and agricultural commodities and record economic activity while still failing to build the domestic industries and technological capabilities required for long-term development,” he said.

His argument was echoed by Prof Toyin Falola, who said Africa’s vast natural resources would continue to reinforce dependency unless governments developed the industrial, technological and institutional capacity to transform them into productive power.

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Falola said Africa’s resource problem was not simply one of historical exploitation, but also the continent’s failure to convert its resource endowments into power.

“The issue, however, is not just to repeat the history of exploitation. It is more important to know how Africa turns its great resources into power,” Falola said.

He argued that Africa could not afford to remain a spectator as global economic and geopolitical arrangements continued to change, stressing that resource ownership without the capacity to add value would not guarantee influence.

Falola said the continent required a combination of knowledge, government policy and industrial capacity to change its economic position.

“There must be universities that generate new knowledge; there must be governments that translate this knowledge into policies; there must be industries that add value to the continent’s natural resources,” he said.

He added that Africa needed more than improved infrastructure and stronger economies if it wanted to exercise greater influence in the global system.

“The future of the continent will require more than just better infrastructure, improved economies, and more effective political institutions,” Falola said.

Source: punchng.com

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Import waivers, insecurity end two-year agric trade surplus

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Import waivers meant to ease hunger and insecurity on farms have led to a deficit, ending a two-year run of surpluses, as Nigeria’s agricultural trade balance swung from a N740.27bn surplus in the first half of 2025 to a N56.13bn deficit in H1 2026, according to agriculture and trade experts.

Recent foreign trade data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that agricultural exports fell by 33.28 per cent, or N985.14bn, to N1.98tn in H1 2026 from N2.96tn in H1 2025.

Agricultural imports fell by only 8.50 per cent, or N188.74bn, to N2.03tn from N2.22tn over the same period. The gap between the two movements produced a N796.40bn swing in the trade balance.

Nigeria recorded a N365.74bn deficit in H1 2023, when imports of N926.25bn far exceeded exports of N560.51bn. The balance then turned to a N194.92bn surplus in H1 2024 before it widened to N740.27bn in H1 2025.

In separate phone interviews with The PUNCH, Agribusiness experts, including the Chairman of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s Agricultural and Allied Group, Tunde Banjoko, explained that recent government policy led to the shift.

Banjoko said, “Some waivers were given for products like palm oil and rice, and the import tariffs were drastically reduced. It became more favourable for people to import than to patronise local producers.”

He said the waivers on food commodities hurt domestic producers, even though lower tariffs on tractors and manufacturing equipment helped them.

According to Banjoko, “The effect is that our imports will rise above our exports. Second, we will discourage local production. Thirdly, we will be reducing employment, because some factories will shut down if they are not able to compete.”

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Banjoko also said weak funding for processors compounds the problem. He said foreign direct investment flows mainly into the capital market rather than into production and processing, so local processors cannot scale.

He urged the Federal Government to speed up the Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones programme. “We should speed up such projects where we can produce enough for our country and start exporting, not look for shortcuts by reducing prices,” Banjoko added.

Meanwhile, the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, identified two major factors behind the deficit. He said the first was the Federal Government’s decision to allow some food imports to tackle runaway inflation.

Yusuf said, “The first is the decision of the government to allow for some food imports as a result of the challenges of food inflation, which at a point was getting almost completely out of hand.”

He added that insecurity worsened the supply gap and cut export capacity, stating, “Insecurity led many farmers to leave their farms. Many of them have ended up in IDP camps, and quite a number have completely abandoned farming.”

He added that farmers cannot export without output. Yusuf said, “You can only export when you have the output.”

Yusuf also said high input costs and falling produce prices have discouraged farming. He said, “Most of these inputs are imported, so the exchange rate situation has seriously affected the cost of inputs, and the prices of produce have gone down.”

He urged the Federal Government to cut the cost of fertiliser, agrochemicals, machinery and improved seedlings. He also called for a minimum guaranteed price for agricultural produce.

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Yusuf said, “The government can establish a threshold below which, if prices fall, it will give farmers some compensation. That is the way it is done in many other economies.”

Source: punchng.com

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