The Federal Government borrowed N2.69tn from the domestic bond market in the first quarter of 2026, as strong investor demand continued to drive subscriptions above offer levels despite tighter allotments, an analysis of Debt Management Office auction results has shown.

Data from the DMO for January, February, and March 2026 indicated that the total was raised through a combination of competitive and non-competitive allotments across the three months.

The figures showed that the government offered N2.45tn worth of bonds in the quarter, while investors submitted subscriptions totalling N5.88tn. Out of this, about 45.64 per cent was allotted, indicating that less than half of the total bids were accepted.

This also means that total subscriptions were about 240.14 per cent of the amount offered, reflecting a strong oversubscription level of more than two times the offer size. On a strictly competitive basis, the allotment ratio was slightly lower at about 43.42 per cent.

A year-on-year comparison showed that the government significantly increased its borrowing from the bond market. In the first quarter of 2025, total allotment stood at about N1.94tn, compared to N2.69tn in the same period of 2026, representing an increase of N750.08bn or 38.76 per cent.

Total subscriptions rose from N2.83tn in 2025 to N5.88tn in 2026, indicating a jump of N3.05tn or 107.71 per cent, while the amount offered increased from N1.10tn to N2.45tn.

Despite the stronger demand, the proportion of subscriptions accepted declined from about 68.32 per cent in the first quarter of 2025 to 45.64 per cent in 2026, suggesting a more cautious approach to borrowing.

A breakdown of the 2026 figures showed that the bulk of the borrowing occurred in January. In January 2026, the government offered N900bn and received subscriptions of N2.25tn, with total allotment, including non-competitive allotments, standing at N1.68tn. This represented about 74.37 per cent of subscriptions and about 186.16 per cent of the amount offered.

Compared to January 2025, when N601.04bn was allotted, the January 2026 figure was higher by N1.07tn, representing a 178.75 per cent increase. Subscriptions also rose significantly from N669.94bn in January 2025.

In February 2026, the government offered N800bn and recorded subscriptions of N2.70tn, the highest monthly subscription in the quarter. However, only N524.28bn was allotted.

This translated to a subscription rate of about 337.40 per cent, while only 19.42 per cent of bids were accepted, indicating a wide gap between investor demand and actual borrowing.

Year-on-year, February 2026 recorded stronger demand but lower borrowing compared to February 2025, when N910.39bn was allotted from subscriptions of N1.63tn. This represents a decline of N386.11bn or 42.41 per cent in allotment despite higher subscriptions.

In March 2026, the government offered N750bn, received subscriptions of N931.50bn, and allotted N485.50bn. This represented a subscription rate of about 124.20 per cent, with about 52.12 per cent of subscriptions accepted.

Compared to March 2025, when total allotment stood at N423.68bn, the March 2026 figure reflected an increase of N61.82bn or 14.59 per cent.

Month-on-month analysis showed that the offer size declined steadily from N900bn in January to N800bn in February and N750bn in March. However, subscriptions rose from N2.25tn in January to N2.70tn in February before dropping sharply to N931.50bn in March.

Similarly, total allotment fell from N1.68tn in January to N524.28bn in February and further to N485.50bn in March, indicating that borrowing was heavily concentrated in the first month of the quarter.

The auction results also showed that marginal rates declined significantly compared to the corresponding period of 2025, although there was a slight increase in March 2026.

In January 2026, marginal rates ranged between 17.50 per cent and 17.62 per cent, compared to between 21.79 per cent and 22.60 per cent in January 2025, indicating a sharp drop in borrowing costs.

In February 2026, rates declined further to a range of 15.50 per cent to 15.74 per cent, compared to about 19.20 per cent to 19.33 per cent in February 2025, showing a reduction of about 3.5 to 3.8 percentage points.

However, in March 2026, marginal rates rose slightly to between 16.00 per cent and 16.64 per cent. Despite this increase, rates remained below March 2025 levels, which ranged from 19.00 per cent to 19.99 per cent.

Overall, the data showed that while borrowing costs increased slightly towards the end of the quarter, they remained significantly lower than the levels recorded in the same period of 2025.

The trend suggests that the Federal Government benefited from improved market conditions and strong investor demand, even as it maintained a conservative stance on the volume of bids accepted during the period.

The PUNCH earlier reported that the Federal Government planned to raise N700bn from the domestic bond market in April 2026, extending a gradual reduction in offer size as it continues to navigate elevated borrowing costs.

Details from the April 2026 Federal Government of Nigeria Bond Offer Circular issued by the Debt Management Office showed that the auction is scheduled for April 27, with settlement on April 29.

The issuance will be executed through the re-opening of existing instruments across three maturities, a strategy aimed at improving liquidity in benchmark securities.

The PUNCH earlier reported that the Federal Government’s domestic borrowings from financial market operators rose sharply in 2025 despite high interest rates, widening the gap between public and private sector access to credit.

A renowned economist and Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, earlier warned that rising Federal Government borrowing from the domestic financial system is increasingly crowding out the private sector, as banks favour low-risk, high-yield government securities over lending to businesses.

“The increase in credit to the government can be attributed to a number of factors. The government has been raising money to finance the deficit. So this financing of the deficit has led to the issuance of bonds, treasury bills, and so on, which banks also buy. The rate is also very attractive, and it’s more attractive to them than lending to the real sector,” Yusuf said. He further urged the government to moderate its borrowing.

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and economists have raised concerns over President Bola Tinubu’s request for Senate approval of a fresh $516m external loan to fund sections of the Sokoto–Badagry Super Highway.

The President had written to the Senate seeking approval for a $516,333,070 external loan to finance parts of the 1,000-kilometre highway project, a flagship infrastructure initiative under his administration.

The request, addressed to the President of the Senate, Godswill Akpabio, was read during plenary on Thursday, formally triggering legislative consideration.

According to the President, the loan—expected to be sourced from Deutsche Bank—will support the construction of Sections 1, 1A, and 1B of the highway linking Sokoto, Kebbi, Niger, Kwara, Oyo, Ogun, and Lagos states, stretching from Illela to Badagry.

Atiku, in a statement signed by his Senior Special Assistant on Public Communication, Phrank Shaibu, acknowledged the importance of the project but warned against rising debt levels and weak transparency in borrowing decisions.

He said, “At a time when Nigeria is already groaning under the weight of unsustainable debt, the resort to yet another foreign loan—without transparent terms, clear cost-benefit analysis, and a credible repayment framework—raises profound questions about prudence and accountability.

“This is not a regional issue, nor should it be framed as one. The people of Northern Nigeria, like their counterparts across the country, deserve development that is sustainable, transparent, and not mortgaged against their future.

“What Nigerians expect is not just ambitious projects, but responsible financing. Development must not become a euphemism for deepening debt traps that generations yet unborn will be forced to repay.”

The former vice president further cautioned the National Assembly against approving the loan without rigorous scrutiny. “Nigeria must build, but Nigeria must not borrow blindly. Progress anchored on opacity and debt accumulation is neither progress nor leadership—it is postponement of crisis,” Atiku added.

Economists also expressed mixed reactions to the loan request, warning that Nigeria’s rising debt profile poses risks to fiscal sustainability, while others defended borrowing for infrastructure development.

Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the University of Uyo, Prof Akpan Ekpo, warned that Nigeria’s growing reliance on external borrowing is becoming a concern.

“The economy is getting too exposed to external debt, that’s my worry. The debt profile is rising alarmingly, and it’s worrisome and disturbing in the sense that we claim that we have almost reached our revenue target. Certainly, this windfall from oil revenues, what should it be used for?

“The windfall should go into infrastructure because when you keep borrowing, and we are not sure they have done enough cost analysis, whether the tolls they collect on the road will pay for it in the next nine years, it becomes a burden,” Ekpo said.

He added, “GDP does not pay debt, revenue pays debt, and our revenue profile is shaky. Most of our revenue comes from oil, which we do not control in terms of price or output, so it is an exogenous source. I worry that borrowing is getting too much, and there is no clear balance of contingency.”

Ekpo urged the government to explore alternatives such as Public-Private Partnerships, concessions, and Sukuk financing. “There are other options to build roads than borrowing. You can use Public-Private Partnerships, you can concession the road to private investors… The key issue is that we must retain more of the financing within the domestic economy so that it creates jobs and strengthens local capacity,” he said.

However, Chief Executive Officer of Economic Associates, Dr Ayo Teriba, supported the loan, saying it is appropriate for capital projects that generate long-term value.

“As the report noted, the loan is going to fund a capital project that has a life well beyond the loan. The superhighway will open up income opportunities, and repayment will come from the income it creates. I do not see any good president who will not take this kind of opportunity, especially at a 5.3 per cent interest rate, which is far better than the nine per cent we have been paying,” Teriba said.

He added, “Any capital project funded by debt will outlive the loan, so you are not passing net debt to future generations but assets that create opportunities.”

Teriba, however, criticised the exclusion of local banks and called for reforms to unlock domestic funding. “We have over N28tn trapped in CRR deposits earning zero interest. Why are Nigerian banks not part of these opportunities? It is time to rethink the CRR model… If properly structured, banks can deploy part of their sterilised liquidity into projects like this and earn returns while supporting national development,” he said.

President Tinubu had said the loan would finance Sections 1, 1A, and 1B of the Sokoto–Badagry Super Highway, designed to improve connectivity, reduce travel time between Sokoto and Lagos, and boost economic integration across the corridor. The Senate has referred the request to the Committee on Local and Foreign Debts for further legislative scrutiny.

Crude oil supply from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited’s trading arm surged in April 2026, with shipment records indicating that more than 1.03 million metric tonnes, equivalent to about 6.8 million barrels or over 1.08 billion litres, were delivered to the Dangote Oil and Gas Company Limited within the month.

An analysis of tanker vessel movements obtained by The PUNCH on Tuesday shows that the deliveries were executed through eight crude cargoes handled by NNPC Trading, reinforcing the state oil firm’s role as a major feedstock supplier to the 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote refinery.

The shipments, sourced from key Nigerian crude streams including Anyala, Bonga, Odudu, Forcados, Qua Iboe, and Utapate, were routed through the refinery’s Single Point Mooring systems, SPM-C1 and SPM-C2.

The document shows that out of the eight cargoes, five have been fully discharged, while three others are still awaiting berthing or completion, indicating a steady pipeline of crude inflows into the refinery.

This development comes amid the refinery’s continued complaints of supply inadequacies, with a total requirement of 19 cargoes monthly, and a recent report that the country imported 55.39 million barrels in January and February 2026.

A breakdown of the deliveries showed that Sonangol Kalandula initiated the supply chain, delivering 123,000 metric tonnes of crude from Anyala. The vessel arrived on April 5, berthed on April 8, and sailed on April 9.

This was followed by Advantage Spring, which supplied 128,190 metric tonnes from Bonga, arriving on April 11 and completing discharge by April 13.

Similarly, a vessel code-named Barbarosa delivered 125,000 metric tonnes from Odudu, while Sonangol Njinga Mban transported 129,089 metric tonnes from Bonga.

Another completed shipment, handled by Nordic Tellus, brought in 139,066 metric tonnes from Forcados, completing discharge on April 17.

However, three additional cargoes remain in progress. Advantage Sun, carrying 142,327 metric tonnes from Bonga, has arrived but is yet to berth. Also pending are Advantage Spring from Utapate with 120,189 metric tonnes, and Sonangol Kalandula from Qua Iboe with 126,471 metric tonnes.

In total, the NNPC Trading cargoes account for 1,033,332 metric tonnes of crude, underscoring what industry analysts describe as a “strong and sustained supply commitment” to the Dangote refinery.

Further findings show that, beyond crude deliveries, the Dangote refinery also received multiple shipments of refined products and blending components from international markets during the period.

Among them, Seaways Lonsdale delivered 37,400 metric tonnes of blendstock gasoline from Immingham, United Kingdom, handled by Vitol, between April 18 and 19.

Another vessel, Augenstern, supplied 37,125 metric tonnes of Premium Motor Spirit from Lavera, France, discharging between April 8 and 9.

From Norway, Emma Grace brought in 37,496 metric tonnes of PMS from Mongstad, while LVM Aaron delivered 36,323 metric tonnes from Lome, Togo.

Similarly, Egret discharged 35,498 metric tonnes of naphtha from Rotterdam between April 16 and 18, providing critical feedstock for gasoline blending.

A pending shipment, Mont Blanc I, carrying 36,877 metric tonnes of blendstock gasoline from Antwerp, Belgium, is yet to berth, while Aesop is expected to deliver 130,000 metric tonnes of residue catalytic oil from Singapore later in April.

In addition to NNPC Trading volumes, other crude cargoes from international and domestic traders also supported refinery operations.

Notably, Yasa Hercules delivered 273,287 metric tonnes of crude from Corpus Christi, United States, while Front Orkla brought in 264,889 metric tonnes from Ingleside, US.

A major cargo, Navig8 Passion, supplied 496,330 metric tonnes of crude from Cameroon, highlighting regional supply integration.

Domestic contributions included Harmonic, which delivered nearly 993,240 barrels from Ugo Ocha, and Aura M, which supplied 1 million barrels from Escravos, alongside an additional 651,331 barrels of cargo from Anyala.

Operational data indicate that most vessels berthed within one to two days of arrival and departed shortly after discharge, suggesting improved efficiency at the refinery’s offshore terminals.

The Dangote refinery, located in Lekki, Lagos, is Africa’s largest single-train refinery, with a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.

The facility is expected to significantly reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products by refining domestic crude and supplying petrol, diesel, aviation fuel, and other derivatives to the local market.

NNPC Limited, through its trading arm, has remained a central player in supplying crude to the refinery under evolving commercial arrangements, amid ongoing reforms in Nigeria’s downstream oil sector.

Earlier this month, Africa’s richest man and President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, revealed in a report by Bloomberg that the refinery received 10 cargoes of crude oil from the state-owned oil firm in March, compared to an average of about five cargoes monthly since late 2024.

Dangote said the shipments included six cargoes paid for in naira and four in dollars, under the crude supply arrangement between the refinery and the NNPC.

“Nigeria doubled crude supply to Dangote Refinery in March as Africa’s top oil producer moved to shore up fuel availability after the Iran war disrupted Middle East shipments. Last month, they gave us six cargoes with payments in naira and four cargoes with payments in dollars,” he stated.