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2027: You will lose 80% of Northern Muslim votes if you change Shettima – APC Forum warns Tinubu

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The North-Central All Progressives Congress, APC, Forum has warned that President Bola Tinubu could lose 80 percent of northern Muslim votes if he bows to calls to jettison the Muslim-Muslim ticket and drop Vice President Kashim Shettima in 2027.

The North-Central APC Forum issued the warning in a statement released by its Chairman, Alhaji Saleh Zazzaga, in Abuja on Saturday.

Ahead of the 2027 election, Tinubu has come under pressure with various groups and stakeholders urging him to drop Shettima as his running mate. Some elements in the APC argue that the Muslim-Muslim ticket, which gave Tinubu victory in 2023, will not work in 2027, when he will be seeking a second term in office.

In a recent appearance on Channels Television’s Politics Today, the Northern Ethnic Nationality Forum, led by Dominic Alancha, warned Tinubu against a repeat of the Muslim-Muslim ticket, noting that it cost the APC several northern states like Nasarawa, Plateau and the Federal Capital Territory in the 2023 presidential poll. Alancha further warned that the APC would lose more grounds in the North, particularly in the Middle Belt, if the party repeats the Muslim-Muslim ticket in the next presidential election.

However, responding to the Northern Ethnic Nationality Forum’s call on Tibubu to drop the Muslim-Muslim ticket for the 2027 election, the North-Central APC Forum, in the statement signed by Zazzaga, a member of the APC campaign council for the 2023 election, noted that the adoption of the Muslim-Muslim ticket was a strategy to win election and does not amount to marginalization of Christians and other religions.

Countering the Northern Ethnic Nationality Forum’s assertion that Tinubu would lose Christian votes in the Middle Belt if he goes ahead with a Muslim-Muslim ticket, the North-Central APC Forum insisted that there is no way the President will lose the region, with prominent Middle Belt christians such as APC National Chairman Prof Nentawe Yilwatda and Secretary to Government of the Federation, SGF, George Akume, along others, holding key positions.

See also  Competence, not zoning, will decide Oyo 2027 candidate — Labour Party

“The Muslim-Muslim ticket will not affect President Bola Tinubu’s chances in the Middle Belt, which is part of the North-Central and this is because of the key positions held by Middle Belt christians in the APC government. We can guarantee that Tinubu will get 90 percent of the votes from the North-Central,” the statement said, adding that Tinubu’s achievements in office will guarantee his reelection and as a result, there is no need to take the “needless risk of changing a winning team”.

The APC Forum advised Tinubu to maintain the status quo and go into the 2027 election with Shettima as his running mate, so as to win the election.

The North-Central APC Forum further argued that those who are asking Tinubu to drop the Muslim-Muslim ticket did not vote for him in 2023 and would still also not give him their votes in 2027 – even if he bows to their wish by dropping Shettima.

Parts of the statement read, “Those that are calling on President Bola Tinubu to change Vice President Kashim Shettima, basing their agitation on the Muslim-Muslim ticket, if you check, you will notice that in 2023, most of their communities voted for Peter Obi of the Labour Party.

“Now if Peter Obi is to come out again in 2027, as expected, what is the guarantee that they will vote for Tinubu even if he is to drop Shettima and replace him with a Christian? Does it mean that these people will now leave Peter Obi and vote for Tinubu?”

See also  APC chieftain accuses Kwankwaso of inciting North against Southern presidency

The APC Forum accused those campaigning against Shettima and the Muslim-Muslim ticket of mischief, noting that they are seeking Tinubu’s defeat in 2027.

“The truth is most of these people are not Tinubu’s supporters, they don’t really want him to win reelection in 2027. That is why some of them are going as far as urging Mr President to drop those that went to great lengths to work for his victory in 2023. They are only trying to deceive Mr President but we believe the President knows better and will be able to see through their mischief. They don’t mean well for Mr President and the party.”

The Forum, in the same vein, alleged that some people who claim to be working for the President’s reelection are alienating and marginalizing northern Muslim communities, while concentrating attention on northern Christians.

“Another issue that we want to bring to Mr President’s attention is there are people close to him – we will not mention their names but they know themselves. They are going about in different communities in the North, giving money to some communities while excluding others all in the name of asking northern Christian communities to vote for Tinubu. But while they are doing that they are alienating and marginalizing northern Muslim communities. This is counter productive and it will backfire eventually and we don’t want Mr President to suffer because of the poor decisions of these people who are close to him.

“Now these people who are concentrating on northern Christians should consider this – what if the 2023 scenario repeats itself in 2027 with Peter Obi also contesting and President Tinubu now loses both Christian and Muslim votes? What if the Christian communities again vote for Obi and the Muslim communities who are now being neglected also refuse to vote for Tinubu?

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“These are the issues that these people who are calling on Mr President to drop Shettima are either not thinking about, or are ignoring because they are up to mischief and do not mean well for the President and the APC.

“Our sincere advise for Mr President is that he should maintain the status quo that produced him. We are not in support of calls for President Tinubu to change the Vice President. Changing Kashim Shettima will not bear any positive fruit in the election because, looking at the results of the 2023 election, all the Christian dominated areas in the North voted for Peter Obi and we don’t expect a different outcome in 2027. Rather, President Tinubu risks losing a large chunk of northern Muslim votes if he listens to these calls and goes ahead to drop Vice President Kashim Shettima.

“We advise Mr President not to gamble with the 2023 election. President Tinubu will lose 80 percent of northern Muslim votes if he decides to change Shettima. Even if he decides to replace him with another northern Muslim, he will lose northern Muslim votes so the best approach is to maintain the status quo and go with what worked for him in the last election,” the statement stressed.

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Cameroon’s president Paul Biya set to get a vice president for the first time in his 43-year rule

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Cameroon’s president, Paul Biya, is set to get a vice president for the first time in his four-decade rule, following controversial constitutional changes backed by the parliament.

In a ‌joint session of the ruling party-dominated National Assembly and Senate, lawmakers voted 200 to 18 in favour, with four abstentions, to pass the bill.

The bill stipulates that the vice president will ​automatically assume the presidency if President Paul Biya dies, resigns, or becomes incapacitated.

Biya, ​93, has led the Central African country since 1982 and is the world’s oldest serving head of state. Public discussion about ​his health is banned.

According to the legislation, a copy of which was seen by ​Reuters, the vice president will be appointed and dismissed by the president, serving for the remainder of the president’s seven-year term.

However, the interim leader would be prohibited from initiating constitutional changes or ​running in a subsequent election.

Prior to the amendment, the constitution designated the leader of the Senate to briefly take over in case the sitting president d!es or is incapacitated. An election would then be held.

The Social Democratic Front (SDF) party, which has six representatives in parliament, boycotted the vote. It had pushed for a revision in favour of the vice-president being jointly elected with the president, rather than appointed.

The party also sought a constitutional provision that reflects the linguistic split between English and French-speaking regions. The SDF wanted the nation’s top two posts to be shared between Cameroon’s two communities, which was the position before 1972.

See also  Defying court order may invalidate your election, INEC chair warns ADC

“This constitutional reform could have been a moment of political courage, but it is nothing less than a missed historic opportunity,” SDF chairman Joshua Osih said.

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Opposition parties weigh election boycott ahead of 2027

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Opposition parties have started pushing for boycott of the 2027 general elections over alleged bias by the Independent National Electoral Commission and purported moves to make President Bola Tinubu the sole contender at the polls.

The Taminu Turaki-led faction of the Peoples Democratic Party and the National Chairman of the African Action Congress, Omoyele Sowore, urged political parties to boycott the elections.

The spokesperson for the African Democratic Congress, Bolaji Abdullahi, said the option would be considered by the party leadership.

In an interview with Sunday PUNCH, the National Publicity Secretary of the Turaki faction, Ini Ememobong, said the boycott was necessary to prevent opposition parties from legitimising a “compromised and predetermined” process.

He accused INEC and the All Progressives Congress of deliberately undermining opposition parties to pave the way for an uncontested victory.

INEC had derecognised the Senator David Mark-led National Working Committee of the ADC, a development that intensified leadership disputes and deepened divisions within opposition ranks.

Ememobong questioned the timing of INEC’s planned activities, including the clean-up of the voter register and monitoring of party records, warning that such measures could be used to deregister opposition parties.

He said, “All opposition parties are in a precarious situation. It is either we find a platform or collectively pull out and allow them to have their fun.

“The only thing that can be gleaned from INEC’s disposition is that it wants to foist a coronation, an uncontested election in 2027. The opposition must think outside the box. This regime is determined to impose itself on Nigerians whether they want it or not. We must adopt unconventional but legal strategies to apply pressure. If they don’t yield, we boycott early to save the nation unnecessary costs.

“Let us not allow them to embezzle over N800bn in the name of an election. If the President does not want to stand, we don’t need to spend the money. Let them organise a coronation, but we will not legitimise an illegitimate process. The faster we decide our course, the better. If PDP, ADC, and all critical politicians boycott, the President may rethink, or the election will proceed and the international community will respond.”

See also  PDP consensus deal shatters as Lamido rejects Turaki as chairman

Speaking on the boycott, Sowore said participation in an election lacking fairness would be pointless.

“Political parties met with INEC, and the position of every political party is that these guys are not planning an election. They are doing things so there is no room for any other party to compete,” he said.

He noted that opposition parties should start discussing a collective withdrawal if the situation did not improve.

“If we can’t have an atmosphere for a free, fair and credible election, why are we wasting time participating? If all the political parties are serious, we should be discussing a boycott now,” Sowore said.

Speaking with Sunday PUNCH, the ADC National Publicity Secretary, Abdullahi, said the party understood the reasons for the call.

“Boycotting the election is a position that will have to be considered by our party leadership, but we understand why they (Turaki faction) are making that demand. We are going to vacate the space for APC, but we are convinced that we will win this election regardless of what they (APC) do,” Abdullahi said.

Opposition in crisis

Major opposition parties are battling internal crises that critics say could weaken them ahead of the 2027 elections.

The PDP crisis, rooted in unresolved disputes from the 2023 presidential elections, has left the party split into two factions: one led by Taminu Turaki, backed by governors Seyi Makinde (Oyo) and Bala Mohammed (Bauchi), and another led by Abdulrahman Mohammed, who is loyal to the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike.

The ADC has also been embroiled in a leadership dispute since 2025, after Senator David Mark assumed leadership of a new National Working Committee in July that year.

The conflict stems from disagreements over the tenure of former National Chairman Ralph Nwosu, which ended in August 2022.

While Nwosu participated in the 2025 transition, his deputy, Nafiu Gombe, insisted he should serve as acting National Chairman.

Rival factions subsequently laid claim to the party’s leadership, triggering multiple court cases before the Appeal Court and the Supreme Court, raising doubts about the party’s readiness for 2027.

The Labour Party is also caught in a protracted leadership crisis, marked by conflicting court rulings and rival petitions.

The situation reached a turning point when a Federal High Court in Abuja ordered INEC to recognise the Nenadi Usman-led caretaker committee as the legitimate leadership.

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Justice Peter Lifu, delivering the judgment, ruled that the tenure of the Julius Abure-led National Working Committee had expired, declaring the Usman-led committee “the only valid authority” pending a national convention.

While the Usman-led committee anchored its legitimacy on the ruling and prior judicial pronouncements, the Abure faction rejected the decision and has filed an appeal, arguing that “no court has the power to appoint leadership for any political party.”

The internal crisis in the NNPP has also deepened, with rival factions at the national and Kano State levels trading accusations of external interference.

At the federal level, the party is split between supporters of former presidential candidate and ex-Kano governor, Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso, and a faction led by founding member Boniface Aniebonam.

APC slams opposition parties

Reacting, the National Secretary of the APC, Senator Basiru Ajibola, questioned the credibility of the opposition.

He said, “Which opposition? Is it people who cannot even organise their party affairs creditably and within the law and acceptable democratic ethos? It is part of the democratic rights of any political party to participate or boycott elections. APC and our president cannot be gaslighted by baseless and mischievous allegations.”

Ajibola further described allegations against INEC as unfounded, saying they reflected lack of seriousness and preparedness for democratic contest within the ambit of existing laws.

He took a swipe at the opposition’s electoral performance, and noted that they had fared poorly in elections conducted since 2023, including the FCT election and recent bye-elections in Kano and Rivers.

NNPP rejects boycott, CSOs worry over calls

Meanwhile, the New Nigeria Peoples Party and civil society organisations have warned that a move to boycott elections could undermine the democratic process and push the country towards a one-party system.

The NNPP Publicity Secretary, Dipo Johnson, said despite growing concerns over INEC’s recent decisions, the party would not support withdrawing from the polls.

“The NNPP shares stronger views because it is becoming clear that what was whispered is now beginning to look like the truth—that INEC is trying to ensure that only the APC will stand for the elections. But we will advise them to try to win through democratic means. Already, a non-democratic method has started.

See also  Turaki camp fumes as INEC rejects PDP excos

“I don’t subscribe to boycotting the election, but I support something much harder than that because Tinubu and his party don’t even care if you boycott the election,” Johnson added.

A board member of Yiaga Africa, Professor Nnamdi Aduba, said concerns over the electoral process should be addressed, but the threat of a boycott may be exaggerated.

He criticised what he described as excessive judicial interference in political party affairs, noting that parties were voluntary organisations that should be allowed to operate independently.

“While the threat should be taken seriously and the government should keep its hands off, I think there is some grandstanding. It would be unhealthy if we begin to have a system dominated by a single candidate, and I don’t think that will happen.

He added, “The judiciary is handling issues in a way that risks giving the impression that the government is trying to weaken opposition parties. Political parties are voluntary organisations and the courts should only intervene in rare cases.”

Also speaking, the National President of the Centre for Anti-Corruption and Open Leadership, Debo Adeniran, said it was inaccurate to place the blame solely on the ruling party for the challenges facing opposition groups.

Adeniran noted that while a one-party state would be detrimental to Nigeria, there is no clear evidence that the country is heading in that direction.

“It is fashionable to say that the ruling party wants to frustrate the opposition, but even within parties like ADC, they know they made fundamental mistakes. It is not healthy for a country like Nigeria to gravitate towards a one-party state, but there is no sign that this is actually happening,” he said.

Adeniran attributed current difficulties largely to internal weaknesses within opposition parties and rejected calls for an election boycott.

“I don’t think anybody is undermining our democratic experiment, and there is no justification for any party to boycott the election,” he added.

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ADC crisis: Govs, lawmakers shelve defections

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There are indications that Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde, and his counterpart from Bauchi State, Governor Bala Mohammed, may no longer join the African Democratic Congress (ADC).

Credible sources close to Makinde and the ADC told Sunday PUNCH that the two governors had slowed down their consultations to move to the ADC following the de-recognition of the party’s leadership by the Independent National Electoral Commission.

Sunday PUNCH also gathered that INEC’s decision had cast doubt on the intentions of National Assembly members planning to join the party.

INEC on Wednesday removed the names of the NWC of ADC led by Mark from its official portal, citing a Court of Appeal order.

The electoral commission said it would maintain the status quo ante bellum pending the determination of a substantive suit before the Federal High Court in Abuja.

The decision followed a protracted leadership crisis within the ADC, with rival factions led by Nafiu Gombe and Mark laying claim to the party’s national structure.

According to the commission, the appellate court, in a judgment delivered on March 12, 2026, directed all parties to maintain the existing situation before the dispute arose and refrain from actions that could prejudice the outcome of the case.

But the Mark-led NWC rejected INEC’s decision and called for the dissolution of the electoral commission.

It also vowed to proceed with preparations for the proposed National Convention scheduled for Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory, on April 14.

There were reports that Makinde and Bala would join the ADC following the prolonged crisis in the Peoples Democratic Party.

See also  PDP consensus deal shatters as Lamido rejects Turaki as chairman

Bala, who is Chairman of the PDP Governors’ Forum, on Tuesday indicated plans to defect to the ADC.

The governor gave the hint after a closed-door meeting with a delegation of the ADC, led by a former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal, at the Presidential Lodge, Bauchi.

Bala stated that despite exhausting all avenues for reconciliation within the PDP at both national and state levels, no meaningful progress had been made.

The Bauchi governor described the ADC as a “preferred destination,” noting, however, that consultations and negotiations were ongoing to ensure a well-informed decision.

Ditto for Makinde, who had been meeting with chieftains of the party.

Speaking with Sunday PUNCH on condition of anonymity, an ally of Makinde, who is knowledgeable about the political activities of the governor, said he might not join the ADC again.

The source said, “I’m not sure Makinde will join the ADC again because ever since INEC’s derecognition of the ADC leadership, he has not been showing interest in further engagements with the ADC leaders.”

Reacting, the Special Adviser to Makinde on Media, Sulaimon Olanrewaju, dismissed claims that the governor was planning to dump the PDP.

Olanrenwaju, in an interview with Sunday PUNCH, equally denied claims that he was delaying his move to ADC due to uncertainty surrounding the party’s national leadership.

He said, “The information is mere rumors, nothing like that.”

Also, the Bauchi State chapter of the PDP said Bala had yet to join the ADC.

Responding to questions on why he had yet to defect to the ADC despite earlier indicating Thursday as a possible timeline, the state PDP Publicity Secretary, Dayyabu Chiroma, said, “All I can tell you is that we are still in the PDP, and we are stronger together.”

See also  Competence, not zoning, will decide Oyo 2027 candidate — Labour Party

He noted that although a committee had been set up to assess the party’s political future, no decision had been taken to leave the party.

“Yes, we have established a committee to make findings on our political future, but we are still in the PDP and have not moved to any other platform,” Chiroma said.

Uncertainty over lawmakers’ defection

Findings by Sunday PUNCH indicate growing uncertainty over the planned defection of some lawmakers, with several still undecided on their next move.

Originally expected to dump the PDP for the ADC, the lawmaker representing Darazo/Ganjuwa Federal Constituency of Bauchi State, Mansur Soro, told Sunday PUNCH that consultations were ongoing.

“We are still consulting and we’ll decide in the next one week,” he stated, when asked if his movement to the ADC remained sacrosanct despite INEC’s decision not to recognise the Mark-led NWC.

Similarly, Lagos lawmaker, Jesse Onuakalusi, whose defection from the Labour Party to the ADC was recently announced on the floor of the House, declined to state his next move if the crisis persists.

Asked what options he would explore, he responded tersely, “What do you mean by if the controversy is not resolved? I don’t want to talk about this issue for now.”

On his part, the lawmaker representing Idemili North/Idemili South Federal Constituency of Anambra State, Uchenna Okonkwo, downplayed the significance of INEC’s action, expressing confidence in a legal resolution.

“The Court of Appeal did not ask INEC to yank off anybody’s name. The court said the status quo should be maintained but the umpire chose to interpret it the way it deemed it.

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“As far as we are concerned, this is not cause for alarm as we are optimistic that the issue would be resolved.”

He added that regardless of the outcome, a former presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Mr Peter Obi, would lead the way for many LP defectors.

Okonkwo said, “It is unfortunate that people are not being allowed to exercise their democratic choice to decide where they want to be. Those who are celebrating today are reminded that the challenges we face as a people are party neutral. Poor power supply, cost of fuel and high living conditions affect all.”

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