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States demand forensic audit of $8.8bn crude-for-loan deals

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State governments have called for a forensic audit of Nigeria’s crude oil-backed borrowing arrangements, warning that opaque crude-for-loan and swap deals may be undermining inflows into the Federation Account.

The PUNCH earlier reported that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited pledged 272,500 barrels per day of crude oil through a series of crude-for-loan deals totalling $8.86bn, according to an analysis of a report by the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative and the NNPC’s financial statements.

According to The PUNCH’s findings, NNPC has already fully repaid $2.61bn in loans, representing 29.4 per cent of the total credit facility, while $6.25bn or 70.6 per cent, remains outstanding. Also, out of the $8.86bn credit facility, only about $6.97bn has been received from seven crude-for-loan deals, as of December 2023.

However, state governments, through their commissioners of finance, are demanding an audit of these deals.

The demand was contained in a communiqué issued at the end of the 2026 retreat of the Federation Account Allocation Committee Post-Mortem Sub-Committee, obtained by The PUNCH on Thursday, which stated that, “All crude oil-backed borrowing arrangements should be subjected to legislative approval, full disclosure, and independent audit. Existing arrangements should be reviewed, with forensic audits conducted to restore confidence and protect future Federation revenues.”

The communiqué followed a three-day retreat held in Enugu between February 9 and February 11, where fiscal authorities, state representatives, revenue agencies, and policy experts met to examine persistent revenue leakages affecting the Federation Account.

The retreat, which focused on “Assessing Fiscal and Sectoral Policies for Closing Revenue Leakage in the Federation Account,” was organised to critically assess fiscal frameworks and administrative practices affecting federal revenue collections and distribution to the three tiers of government.

According to the communiqué, the meeting was convened by the FAAC Post-Mortem Sub-Committee to “critically assess fiscal and sectoral policies contributing to revenue leakage in the Federation Account and to reposition the Sub-Committee for a more proactive revenue assurance role.”

The retreat was formally opened by the Governor of Enugu State, Dr Peter Mbah, who was represented by the Secretary to the State Government, Prof Chidiebere Onyia. In his goodwill message, Onyia welcomed participants and reaffirmed the importance of fiscal coordination and transparency in managing public finances.

He also emphasised the need for stronger accountability mechanisms in the management of Federation revenues, while commending the FAAC Post-Mortem Sub-Committee and the Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission for their efforts to strengthen public finance governance in the country.

The communiqué indicated that the welcome address was delivered by the Chairman of the FAAC Post-Mortem Sub-Committee, Abdulazeez King.

Goodwill messages were also delivered by the Chairman of the Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission, Dr Mohammed Shehu, who was represented by Federal Commissioner, Ntufam Whiley.

The former Minister of State for Finance, who is now the Minister of State for Budget, Dr Doris Uzoka-Anite, and the Permanent Secretary of the Federal Ministry of Finance, Mr Raymond Omachi, were represented at the event by Dr Ali Mohammed, Director of Home Finance.

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A keynote address on the theme of the retreat was delivered by the Accountant-General of the Federation, Mr Shamseldeen Ogunjimi, who was represented by Mrs Rita Okolie, Director of the Federation Account at the Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation.

Participants at the retreat included representatives of the Federal and State Governments, revenue-generating agencies, oversight institutions, and technical experts.

According to the communiqué, deliberations during the sessions were enriched by presentations covering a broad range of fiscal governance issues, including the Federation Account framework, reforms in the petroleum sector, tax policy changes, audit oversight, crude oil-backed borrowing, and administrative practices affecting government revenue inflows.

Participants at the retreat reaffirmed the constitutional importance of the Federation Account as the central pool through which revenue is shared among the three tiers of government.

The communiqué noted that the account, established under Section 162 of the 1999 Constitution, “remains the backbone of fiscal sustainability for the three tiers of government.”

However, it warned that several structural challenges continue to erode the volume of distributable revenues available to the Federal Government, states, and local governments.

The communiqué stated that participants unanimously observed that “persistent revenue leakages, opaque deductions, institutional inefficiencies, and weak oversight continue to erode distributable revenues.”

The retreat also expressed concern over the increasing scale of quasi-fiscal deductions from Federation revenues. These deductions, according to participants, include power sector subsidy obligations, debt write-offs, and operational expenses deducted at source before revenue is remitted into the Federation Account.

The communiqué stated that these practices were widely viewed as inconsistent with the principles of transparency and fiscal discipline.

It said, “The retreat noted with concern the growing scale of quasi-fiscal deductions from Federation revenues, including power-related subsidy obligations, debt write-offs, and operational costs deducted at source. These practices were considered inconsistent with transparency, budgetary discipline, and constitutional intent.”

Participants also examined the implications of the Petroleum Industry Act and its impact on the management of oil and gas revenues. While acknowledging that the legislation has created opportunities for improved governance in the petroleum sector, the retreat raised concerns about certain operational practices under the new framework.

According to the communiqué, participants noted that issues surrounding the transfer of joint venture assets to NNPC Limited, management fees, production sharing contract profit oil administration, and the Frontier Exploration Fund had raised serious concerns among stakeholders.

“These developments were observed to have materially reduced inflows into the Federation Account and weakened oversight,” the communiqué stated.

The retreat further stressed the importance of transparency, accountability, and stronger oversight mechanisms in the management of public finances. Participants agreed that unrestricted access to Federation Account data by oversight institutions was essential for effective monitoring and recovery of government revenues.

The communiqué stated, “Transparency, accountability, and oversight are indispensable to closing revenue leakages. It was resolved that unrestricted access to Federation Account data by oversight institutions, particularly the Office of the Auditor-General for the Federation, is critical for effective monitoring, audit, and recovery of revenues.”

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Participants also highlighted the role of the Supreme Audit Institution in preventing and detecting revenue leakages. The retreat emphasised the need to strengthen audit capacity and improve the timeliness of audit reporting to ensure that audit findings lead to concrete revenue recovery and deterrence against financial misconduct.

According to the communiqué, “Participants underscored the constitutional role of the Supreme Audit Institution in preventing and detecting revenue leakages. The retreat called for strengthened audit capacity, timely audit reporting, and enforceable follow-up mechanisms to ensure that audit findings translate into actual revenue recovery and deterrence.”

The meeting also raised concerns about the high cost of revenue collection by some government agencies. Participants described these costs as a major drain on the Federation Account and called for reforms to align collection charges with global best practices.

“The high cost of revenue collection by certain agencies was identified as a major drain on the Federation Account,” the communiqué said.

It added that participants resolved that cost-of-collection arrangements should be periodically reviewed and benchmarked against international standards. The retreat also welcomed ongoing tax reforms aimed at expanding the tax base and improving compliance across the country.

Participants noted that the reforms could significantly boost government revenue if implemented effectively. The communiqué stated that tax reforms should focus on strengthening compliance mechanisms and reducing fragmentation within the tax system.

Another major area of concern discussed at the retreat was the growing reliance on crude oil-backed borrowing and crude-for-product swap arrangements. The communiqué specifically mentioned arrangements such as Project Gazelle and the Direct Sale Direct Purchase scheme.

It stated that participants expressed “grave concern over crude oil-backed borrowing arrangements and opaque crude-for-product swaps, including Project Gazelle and the Direct Sale Direct Purchase scheme.”

The retreat noted that such arrangements could reduce transparency in revenue flows and weaken accountability in the management of oil revenues. It was, therefore, recommended that any future crude-backed financing arrangements must receive legislative approval and be subject to full disclosure and independent audits.

Participants also called for stronger collaboration between RMAFC and NNPC Limited to ensure proper accounting for oil revenues. The communiqué recommended that RMAFC should intensify engagement with the national oil company to obtain complete documentation relating to joint venture asset transfers and to compute net revenues due to the Federation.

It said the commission should also pursue appropriate recovery actions where discrepancies are identified.

The PUNCH earlier reported that about 14.66 per cent of Nigeria’s crude oil production in 2025 was likely committed to servicing crude-backed loan facilities, based on estimates derived from disclosures in the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited’s 2024 financial statements and official production data.

An analysis by The PUNCH shows that four major crude-secured arrangements — Project Gazelle, Project Yield, Project Leopard, and Eagle Export Funding — are backed by a combined 213,000 barrels of crude oil per day.

If this allocation remained unchanged throughout 2025, the total volume committed to debt servicing would amount to 77.75 million barrels for the year, calculated by multiplying 213,000 barrels per day by 365 days.

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Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission indicate that Nigeria produced 530.41 million barrels of crude oil between January and December 2025.

The 77.75 million barrels tied to crude-for-loan arrangements therefore represent 14.66 per cent of total annual production. Using the 2025 average Bonny Light price of $72.08 per barrel, the 77.75 million barrels translate to about $5.60bn.

Converted at the official exchange rate of N1,492 to the dollar, the crude potentially deployed to service the loans is valued at approximately N8.36tn. This implies that out of the estimated gross crude oil earnings for 2025, a sizeable portion of output by volume was effectively earmarked for debt servicing before revenues could fully accrue to government coffers.

The obligations span multiple forward-sale and project-financing arrangements expected to be serviced through substantial crude oil and gas deliveries. These commitments have become a central pillar of NNPC’s funding framework following years of fiscal strain, volatile production, and declining upstream investment.

Several of the facilities were used to refinance legacy debts, fund refinery rehabilitation, support cash flow, and meet government revenue obligations.

The Chief Executive Officer of AHA Strategies, Mr Ademola Adigun, earlier linked declining oil earnings to opaque crude-for-cash arrangements and undisclosed loan repayments that have tied up part of the country’s output.

“Some of our crude is already tied up in loan agreements. The problem is that Nigeria doesn’t know the full details of these transactions because there’s little transparency around them,” Adigun said.

He added that several crude-backed projects, including Project Gazelle, were executed without adequate public disclosure or parliamentary scrutiny, urging the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative to strengthen its audits.

Development economist and Chief Executive Officer of CSA Advisory, Dr Aliyu Ilias, said Nigeria’s crude trading structure had grown increasingly complex, involving swaps and oil-to-naira transactions that might not be fully captured in official records.

The Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, recalled that during the tenure of former Central Bank Governor, Godwin Emefiele, several forward-sale deals were signed to raise emergency funds amid fiscal pressure.

“During the Emefiele years, Nigeria committed a lot of its crude upfront,” he said. “Those forward sales are still eating into our current earnings.”

Yusuf, however, noted that transparency and professionalism within the NNPCL had improved under the current administration of Bayo Ojulari. “Under the new management of the NNPC, there’s better professionalism and openness,” he said.

He added that full disclosure of crude swap and forward-sale agreements is necessary to restore confidence in oil revenue reporting.

The Chief Corporate Communications Officer of NNPC Limited, Andy Odeh, had not responded to enquiries sent to him regarding the crude-for-loan arrangements as of the time this report was filed.

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Nigerians spend N50bn on US visa applications

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Nigerians spent more than N50bn on US visa applications between 2023 and 2024, despite a sharp decline in approvals as Washington tightened immigration controls and increased scrutiny of applicants.

An analysis of the Intelpoint report, using data from the US Department of State, shows that 201,200 non-immigrant visas were issued to Nigerians between 2023 and 2024. At a standard application fee of $185 per applicant, Nigerians spent approximately $37.2m, equivalent to N50.7bn at an average exchange rate of N1,360 to the dollar.

Visa issuances declined by about 23 per cent, falling to 87,300 in 2024 from 113,900 in 2023, a reduction of 26,600 visas. The PUNCH could not obtain comparable figures for 2025 at the time of reporting.

Business and tourism travel dominated approvals in 2024, with B1/B2 visas accounting for 83 per cent of total issuances, while student visas (F1) represented about seven per cent. Exchange visitor visas (J1) and other temporary categories made up the remainder.

Africa’s most populous nation remained a significant source market for the United States, accounting for about 0.8 per cent of global non-immigrant visa issuances in 2024, the data showed.

Former President of the National Association of Nigeria Travel Agencies, Susan Akporiaye, said Nigerians’ travel behaviour is driven by more than economic conditions, noting a strong cultural inclination toward mobility.

“People would say it’s because of the economy, but I share a different view. Nigerians are generally migrants; they love travelling.

We are like the Chinese of Africa,” Akporiaye told The PUNCH.

The executive argued that most Nigerians who travel abroad return home, and only a small proportion remain outside the country permanently. “There is so much noise of Nigerians staying back. The ones who travel and return are far more than those who stay back. It’s not up to 10 per cent that don’t return,” she stated.

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The decline in visa issuances comes amid a series of policy changes introduced after Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, which have gradually tightened requirements for Nigerian applicants.

In July 2025, the US Department of State announced that most non-immigrant and non-diplomatic visas issued to Nigerian citizens would be restricted to single-entry permits valid for three months, with existing visas unaffected.

In August, applicants were required to disclose all social media usernames used over the previous five years on DS-160 forms, with officials warning that omissions could lead to visa denial or ineligibility.

Akporiaye also noted that travel demand cuts across income levels, from affluent individuals to ordinary citizens travelling for social events. “Nigerians like to explore. We travel for birthdays, weddings, and other ceremonies. I’m not talking about people like Dangote or Otedola, but ordinary Nigerians you don’t even know,” she said.

The expert, however, acknowledged that demand for US travel has softened relative to other destinations, citing operational and policy-related constraints.

“The demand has reduced for some destinations like the US, and it’s becoming worse now. Conditional requirements and operational changes at the US Embassy in Abuja have made access more difficult, including the consolidation of services in Lagos,” she stated.

“There are stories about visas being cancelled or Nigerians getting deported, and that makes people a bit sceptical. But other destinations are still booming.”

Further tightening followed in December 2025, when the US Mission in Nigeria said Washington expanded travel restrictions to include partial limitations on Nigeria and five other countries, effective January 1, 2026.

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An executive at Travel and Tours Limited, Maureen Chimaobi, said securing a US visa has become increasingly difficult over the past year, with many first-time applicants facing steep odds despite completing all required procedures.

“Last year, getting a US visa drastically reduced, especially if you are a first-time traveller or first-time applicant. It’s almost a no-go area,” Chimaobi told our correspondent.

She noted that applicants continue to pay visa fees, schedule appointments and attend interviews, but approvals have become far less predictable. “You pay your visa fee, book your appointment and go for submission. Most of the time, they don’t give it,” the agent said.

The trend reflects growing concerns among travel operators about declining approval rates for Nigerian applicants, even as demand for overseas travel remains strong. Chimaobi said rejection levels have remained high throughout the period under review, particularly for individuals with limited international travel history.

The tougher environment is also influencing destination choices. More Nigerians are turning to countries where visa approvals are perceived to be more attainable, provided applicants can demonstrate sufficient financial capacity and present strong documentation.

“I think most countries still offer a 70 to 80 per cent chance of getting a visa, depending on the quality of your documents and your financial status,” Chimaobi revealed.

She identified the United Kingdom as one of the destinations with relatively stronger approval prospects, although she cautioned that British authorities have also hardened their assessment processes in recent months.

France and other countries within the Schengen area, once considered more accessible to Nigerian travellers, have become increasingly selective, especially toward first-time applicants, she added.

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“Before now, France used to issue visas more easily, but most Schengen countries have become difficult over time, particularly for first-time travellers,” Chimaobi said.

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Petrol imports crash by N2tn to N87bn; see why

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Nigeria’s spending on the importation of Premium Motor Spirit, popularly known as petrol, plunged by over 96 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, marking a dramatic shift in the country’s fuel supply landscape and signaling the growing impact of local refining capacity.

Latest foreign trade statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday showed that only N87.401bn was spent on the importation of Motor Spirit Ordinary, the official trade classification for petrol, between January and March 2026.

The figure represents a sharp decline of N2.184tn, or 96.15 per cent, compared to the N2.271tn spent on petrol imports during the corresponding period of 2025. The development is particularly significant as petrol, which had consistently ranked among Nigeria’s most imported commodities for years, was completely absent from the list of the country’s top traded products in the first quarter of 2026.

An analysis of the NBS data by our correspondent showed that petrol did not feature among the top 19 traded products with the rest of the world, Africa, or West Africa during the review period.

Instead, the leading traded products included crude petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, gas oil, durum wheat, machines for reception, conversion and transmission of data, used vehicles, motorcycles, agricultural seeders, medicaments, aircraft parts, butanes, petroleum bitumen, sugar cane, herbicides and fuel additives.

The report read, “The value of total imports stood at N13,619.33bn in the first quarter of 2026, representing a 18.17 per cent decrease from the value recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2025 (N16,644.42bn) and a 21.05 per cent decrease compared to the value recorded in Q4 2025 (N17,250.93bn).

“Analysis of Nigeria’s import trade reveals that China remained the leading source of imports in the first quarter of 2026, followed by the United States of America, India, Germany, and the United Arab Emirates. The most imported commodities during the quarter were petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals (crude), gas oil, durum wheat, machines for the reception, conversion, and transmission of voice, images, or data, and used vehicles with diesel or semi-diesel engines.

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“The value of other oil products imported in Q1 2026 stood at N748.10bn, reflecting an 85.05 per cent decrease from N5,005.22bn in Q1 2025 and an 81.38 per cent decrease from N4,018.31bn recorded in Q4 2025.”

The latest import figure is also the lowest quarterly amount spent on petrol imports since at least 2022, according to available trade records reviewed by our correspondent.

Data from previous years showed that Nigeria spent N2.694tn on petrol imports in the first quarter of 2022. The import bill declined by N661bn, or 24.5 per cent, to N2.033tn in the corresponding period of 2023.

However, petrol import spending surged by N1.780tn in 2024 to N3.813tn, representing an increase of 87.6 per cent year-on-year. The figure later dropped by N1.542tn, or 40.4 per cent, to N2.271tn in the first quarter of 2025 before plunging by a massive N2.184tn, or 96.15 per cent, to N87.401bn in the first quarter of 2026.

The latest figure means that for every N100 spent on petrol imports in the first quarter of 2025, only about N4 was spent during the same period in 2026. The NBS data also highlighted the changing structure of Nigeria’s petrol import trade profile over the years.

According to the report, the total trade value involving the petroleum product stood at N7.705tn in 2022. This declined marginally by N194bn, or 2.5 per cent, to N7.511tn in 2023.

Trade value, however, more than doubled in 2024, rising by N7.907tn, or 105.3 per cent, to N15.418tn, the highest level during the period under review. The figure subsequently fell by N5.045tn, or 32.7 per cent, to N10.373tn in 2025, reflecting changing trade dynamics in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.

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The PUNCH reports that the sharp reduction in petrol imports reflects the increasing contribution of domestic refining facilities to fuel supply, reducing Nigeria’s dependence on foreign suppliers and helping conserve foreign exchange.

For decades, Nigeria relied heavily on imported petrol despite being Africa’s largest crude oil producer, owing largely to the poor performance of state-owned refineries and inadequate domestic refining capacity.

The trend began to change following investments in local refining and the gradual increase in output from domestic refineries, which have reduced the need for large-scale fuel imports.

The sharp decline in petrol imports in the first quarter of 2026 comes amid growing domestic refining capacity, particularly from the operations of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which began supplying petrol to the Nigerian market in 2024.

For decades, Nigeria relied heavily on imported Premium Motor Spirit despite being Africa’s largest crude oil producer. The country’s state-owned refineries operated far below capacity for years, forcing marketers and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company to spend trillions of naira annually importing fuel to meet domestic demand.

The commissioning of the 650,000 barrels-per-day refinery in Lekki, Lagos, marked a turning point in the downstream petroleum sector. Since commencing petrol production, the refinery has steadily increased output, supplying marketers, industrial users and fuel distributors across the country.

In January, the Nigerian Midstream Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority reported that Dangote refinery supplied an average of 40.1 million litres of petrol daily, accounting for 61.78 per cent of Nigeria’s petrol supply. Imported fuel contributed 24.8 million litres per day during the month.

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It increased significantly in February as imports collapsed. The refinery supplied about 36.5 million litres per day, while imports dropped to roughly 3.1 million litres per day, meaning locally refined fuel accounted for more than 92 per cent of national supply.

According to the NMDPRA March fact sheet, Dangote remained the sole domestic supplier of petrol, supplying 34.2 million litres per day. Imports rose slightly to 5.9 million litres daily, bringing total supply to about 40.1 million litres per day.

Supply rebounded strongly in April. Dangote supplied 40.7 million litres per day to the domestic market, while imports declined further to 3.7 million litres daily. Total petrol supply stood at 44.4 million litres per day, giving the refinery a market share of approximately 92 per cent of locally consumed fuel and about 80–92 per cent of overall supply, depending on the methodology used.

The disappearance of petrol from the list of top imported products is expected to strengthen arguments that local refining is beginning to alter Nigeria’s trade patterns, lower import dependence and reshape the country’s foreign exchange requirements.

The sustained reductions in fuel imports could improve Nigeria’s trade balance, reduce pressure on the naira and retain more value within the domestic economy, provided local production continues to meet demand.

The first-quarter data therefore represents one of the clearest indications yet of a major shift in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, with petrol imports falling to levels not seen in more than four years.

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Nigerian workers deserve a living wage; read details

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THIS is a debate that never goes away for too long: what is due to Nigerian workers? The renewed agitation over workers’ wages, triggered by a fresh Nigeria Governors’ Forum proposal to raise the national minimum wage to N100,000 per month, only confirms that the country is trapped in an endless cycle of wage adjustments that inflation quickly renders meaningless.

This means that the issue is not just about the size of the minimum wage. Rather, it is about whether Nigerian workers can afford to live with dignity.

That is why the conversation must shift from a statutory minimum wage to a genuine living-wage regime – and a stable economy.

The proposal by the Chairman of the NGF, Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, has already been rejected by organised labour.

The Nigeria Labour Congress, through its spokesman, Benson Upah, dismissed N100,000 as grossly inadequate and argued that, given current realities, a realistic wage would be closer to N1 million per month!

The Federal Workers Forum also condemned the proposal as a “Greek gift,” insisting that it bears little relationship to prevailing economic conditions.

While the NLC’s N1 million demand may appear excessive to many, the underlying argument deserves serious attention.

The current N70,000 minimum wage approved in July 2024 has already been overtaken by inflation. Like every previous wage increase in Nigeria’s history, its real value has been rapidly eroded.

The country’s minimum wage trajectory elucidates this. It rose from N18,000 in 2011 to N30,000 in 2019 and then to N70,000 in 2024. Yet each increase was followed by soaring inflation that wiped out most of the gains.

It is alleged that some states have yet to implement the minimum wage for grassroots workers, local government employees and primary school teachers.

Dataphyte estimates that the real value of the previous N30,000 wage had collapsed to barely N11,708 by mid-2024. The current N70,000 wage is clearly following the same path.

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The CBN reported that workers lost N2.79 trillion in purchasing power in 2024 alone due to inflation. That explains why workers who celebrated the 133 per cent wage increase in 2024 now find themselves struggling to survive less than two years later.

Nothing illustrates the crisis more vividly than the National Bureau of Statistics and Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition Cost of a Healthy Diet data.

According to an analysis by The Whistler, a healthy diet for one adult now costs an average of N1,541 per day or N46,230 per month, excluding meal preparation costs.

This means that a worker earning N70,000 is left with just N23,770 after feeding only himself.

For an average Nigerian household of 5.06 persons, the monthly cost of a healthy diet rises to N233,923 — equivalent to 334 per cent of the current minimum wage.

In other words, the average worker cannot afford the minimum nutritional requirements recommended by global health standards.

Even the governors’ proposed N100,000 wage would still leave most families far below the subsistence level. It is therefore difficult to dispute labour’s argument that Nigeria’s wage structure has become detached from economic reality.

However, raising wages alone cannot solve the problem.

The organised private sector has raised legitimate concerns about its ability to pay across the board.

The president of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Leye Kupoluyi, said the private sector should not be compelled to pay the same wage level as the government if businesses could not afford it.

The Director-General of the Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association, Adewale Oyerinde, points out that the process for arriving at a National Minimum Wage is “rooted in widely acclaimed tripartite negotiations and consultation and not just political statements, without any empirical data to back up the quantum of increase.”

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise warned that many businesses are already struggling under crushing energy costs, logistics bottlenecks, foreign exchange challenges, multiple taxation and weak consumer demand. All this needs to be addressed.

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Indeed, any wage increase that is unsupported by productivity growth and economic reforms risks fuelling another inflationary spiral. Businesses facing higher wage bills often pass costs to consumers, thereby worsening the very inflation the wage increase seeks to offset.

Nigeria must therefore avoid the false choice between workers’ welfare and business survival.

The real objective should be a living-wage framework tied to measurable economic indicators and supported by aggressive cost-of-living reduction policies.

This is the model increasingly adopted across many countries. In South Africa, the national minimum wage is approximately 28.79 rand per hour, translating to well over N250,000 monthly at prevailing exchange rates.

Algeria’s minimum wage is around 20,000 dinars (N204,000) monthly, while Egypt recently increased its public-sector minimum wage to 7,000 Egyptian pounds (N184,000).

Kenya’s minimum wage varies by sector and location, but the average of 16,113 Kenyan Shillings (N169,500) remains significantly higher in purchasing power terms than Nigeria’s.

Nigeria should not be setting wage policy as though inflation were a temporary inconvenience.

Food inflation remains the principal driver of household hardship, standing at 16.06 per cent YoY and higher than headline inflation of 15.69 per cent as of April.

Massive investments in agricultural productivity, rural roads, storage infrastructure and security in farming communities are urgently needed.

The absurd situation where healthy diets are more expensive in some rural communities than in urban centres because of poor roads must end.

The government must also address transport costs through investments in rail, inland waterways and public transportation systems.

Electricity tariffs remain a major burden on both households and businesses. Lowering energy costs would immediately improve living standards while enhancing business competitiveness.

Investments in health by ramping up health insurance enrolment and better access to quality care, and in education, via massive infrastructure improvements and teacher recruitment, will reduce household expenditure on these essentials.

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Furthermore, labour’s argument regarding improved government revenues deserves scrutiny.

Since the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, higher oil prices have boosted Nigeria’s earnings. It is estimated that the windfall has added more than N5 trillion to government coffers.

Whether that figure is an exaggeration or not, governments are receiving historically high FAAC allocations, averaging over a 50 per cent surge for states in 2025 and all tiers sharing up to N2 trillion in 2026.

Nigerians deserve to see some direct benefit from these gains through targeted subsidies for food production and transportation, public transit and essential services.

More fundamentally, wage determination should no longer depend on sporadic political negotiations every few years.

The National Minimum Wage Act should be amended to provide for automatic annual adjustments linked to inflation, productivity and cost-of-living indicators. Such a mechanism would prevent workers from suffering prolonged erosion of purchasing power before the government responds.

Above all, policymakers must remember that they are insulated from the hardships confronting ordinary citizens.

Governors, legislators, political appointees and senior public officials enjoy humongous allowances, subsidised accommodation, official vehicles, security details and generous expense accounts.

They do not queue for transport. They do not worry about school fees after buying food. They do not feel inflation in the same way as the average worker.

That disconnect explains why debates over N70,000, N100,000 or even N1 million often miss the central issue.

The goal of wage policy is not simply to keep workers alive so that the job is done. It is to ensure that honest labour can provide a decent standard of living.

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