Amid the escalating tensions in the Middle East, data from the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria has shown that a litre of imported petrol is about N64 cheaper than the one produced by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

However, the refinery debunked the report, challenging importers to defy the ongoing airstrikes in the Middle East and bring in petroleum products.

The PUNCH reported on Monday that the Dangote refinery increased its gantry price from N774 to N874. The adjustment followed a jump in oil prices to $84 per barrel, up from below $70, days before the airstrikes involving the United States, Iran, Israel, and other countries.

Following the increment, filling stations on Tuesday raised their pump prices to as high as N937, depending on the location. Before the Middle East crisis deepened over the weekend, some filling stations had already been selling petrol at prices ranging between N812 and N839, but the crisis disrupted the global fuel market, affecting Nigeria and other countries.

However, data by MEMAN indicated that Dangote’s petrol gantry price was N874 per litre as of Monday, while the landing cost of imported petrol was N809.37 per litre, showing a difference of about N64 between the two sources.

MEMAN also reported that Dangote’s diesel price was N1,169.42, while imported diesel was N1,125.70 per litre.

However, officials of the Dangote refinery, who did not want to be mentioned because of the sensitivity of the matter, said some importers were projecting a false narrative to ensure the Federal Government continues to issue import licences.

“Anybody can go to Apapa to get the landing cost, and anybody who likes should go to Iran and import. Some people just want us to depend on imports. Isn’t it time we ended that dependence on foreign products?

“Some people want importation to continue, and that’s not normal. You keep importing what can be produced locally. Is that a good thing? How do you expect our children to survive? Nigerians will import and destroy what we have locally,” an official said.

Aside from pricing, another official said Nigeria should be thankful to the Dangote refinery for shielding the country from the fuel crisis that could have paralysed commercial activities.

“Let’s think about what could have happened to Nigeria if we didn’t have a refinery in Nigeria at this time. Assuming there is no Dangote refinery in Nigeria, economic activities would have been paralysed by now.

“Many countries are not so lucky, and they are now facing long queues at filling stations. Dangote has saved Nigeria from that fuel crisis. This has taught us that there’s nothing like one’s country, and we must always be prepared,” he said.

In its report, MEMAN explained that the downstream sector saw a major upward price adjustment on Monday, driven by the Dangote refinery raising its gantry price by N100, bringing it to N874 per litre.

The shift, triggered by rising global crude costs, pushed retail pump prices above N900 per litre. Many private depots reportedly paused sales briefly to recalibrate their pricing in response.

“The market is currently in a state of high uncertainty. With Brent crude climbing above $80/bbl due to escalating geopolitical tensions (specifically the US-Israel-Iran conflict), analysts warn that the cost of petrol remains under significant pressure. If crude prices continue toward the $90/bbl mark, domestic pump prices could potentially reach N1,100 by next month,” MEMAN said.

On Wednesday, motorists flocked to petrol stations across Britain in a scramble for fuel as fears of a new oil crisis caused by the Iran war grew, according to a report by The Mirror UK.

Frustrated drivers complained on Wednesday about UK petrol stations running out of fuel and long queues at forecourts after hostilities erupted in the Middle East. Prices have risen by as much as 11 pence per litre in some locations.

In contrast, Nigeria relies on the Dangote refinery for an adequate fuel supply amid the geopolitical tensions. Petrol prices in Nigeria surged on Tuesday, but no queues were reported at filling stations. Analysts attribute this to the Dangote refinery reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel.

Commentators highlight the Dangote refinery’s role in shielding Nigeria from such disruptions. “Imagine a Nigeria without a refinery; we would be experiencing endless queues, black market prices, businesses slowing down, and an economy held hostage by fuel scarcity.

“Today, we stand at a turning point. The Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals is more than steel and pipes — it is energy security, economic power, job creation, and national pride,” an industry player who spoke in confidence stated.

During a recent meeting with refiners and stakeholders, the Dangote refinery assured them of sufficient fuel supply, though it noted challenges from insufficient crude, requiring some reliance on foreign feedstock.

The PUNCH reports that Dangote outpaced importers to supply approximately 62 per cent of the nation’s petrol in January 2026.

This development, revealed in the fact sheet from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, signals a growing reliance on domestic refining capabilities and a potential reduction in the country’s longstanding dependence on fuel imports.

According to the NMDPRA’s State of the Downstream Sector report for January 2026, the total average daily supply of petrol reached 64.9 million litres per day in January.

Of this volume, receipts from domestic refineries — primarily driven by Dangote, the only petrol-producing refinery at the moment — accounted for 40.1 million litres per day, while imports by oil marketing companies and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited stood at 24.8 million litres per day.

This marked the first time in the 13-month period covered by the report (from January 2025 to January 2026) that domestic production had exceeded imports, reversing a trend where foreign supplies often dominated the market.

The NMDPRA attributed the surge in domestic output directly to “improvement in supply from DPRP” — the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals — which increased its PMS contributions from 32 million litres per day in December 2025 to 40.1 million litres per day in January 2026.

Crude supply denial

Meanwhile, the Dangote refinery has said that local crude producers are refusing to supply feedstock to its facility, forcing it to rely more on imported crude. In a statement on Thursday, the refinery defended its recent N100 increase in the gantry price of petrol.

While reassuring Nigerians of its unwavering commitment to serving as a stabilising force amid recent shocks in the international oil market, the refinery said the conflict in the Middle East has led to the shutdown of some refineries and cutbacks in refinery production across the world.

This, it said, is leading to a global scarcity of petroleum products, as China has banned the export of gasoline and diesel. “The Dangote refinery will ensure that Nigeria is insulated from these supply shocks by prioritising supply to the domestic market. This is one of the many benefits of domestic refining,” it said.

According to the statement, the conflict in the Middle East has driven global crude and freight prices sharply higher, with benchmark Brent prices rising by about 26 per cent within a short period to above $84 per barrel.

In response, the refinery implemented a measured adjustment of N100 per litre in its ex-depot price of petrol, representing an increase of about 12 per cent.

The refinery said it has absorbed 20 per cent of the cost escalation for now to cushion the domestic market, despite continuing to source crude at prevailing international market prices, whether purchased locally or from foreign suppliers.

“It is worth noting that Nigerian crude oil is more expensive than the Brent benchmark price by $3 to $6 per barrel. After adding freight of $3.50 per barrel, crude oil will be landing in our tanks between $88 and $91 per barrel. For context, crude oil was landing in our tanks at about $68 per barrel when our ex-depot price was N774/litre,” the refinery stated.

According to the company, the refinery receives five cargoes every month from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited instead of 13 cargoes, adding that the cargoes are paid for at international market prices.

“Furthermore, while we receive about five cargoes a month from NNPC, which we pay for in naira, these cargoes are priced at international market prices plus premium and fall short of the 13 cargoes which we require to support sales into Nigeria. We, therefore, end up procuring foreign exchange at open market rates to pay for crude cargoes purchased from local and international traders.

“The high crude cost is compounded by the fact that Nigeria’s upstream producers have failed to supply crude oil to the refinery as required under the Petroleum Industry Act, forcing us to source a substantial portion through international traders who charge an additional premium,” it stated.

As a private enterprise operating in a deregulated environment, the Dangote refinery added that it has remained responsive and has made significant sacrifices by aligning pricing with market realities to ensure sustainability, particularly as it sources all its crude at prevailing international market prices, whether locally or from foreign suppliers.

“Selling below cost would undermine its ability to procure crude, sustain production, and guarantee uninterrupted supply to Nigerians. Despite these pressures, local refining at this scale continues to reduce exposure to international supply disruptions, moderate foreign exchange demand, and protect the country from severe shortages during periods of global instability,” the refinery added.

The refinery said it is also accelerating the deployment of compressed natural gas-powered trucks to cushion the impact of global shocks, enhance nationwide distribution efficiency, reduce logistics costs, and improve delivery timelines across the downstream sector.

“The rollout is scheduled to commence this month,” it announced, saying, “We remain committed to transparency, operational excellence, and the long-term objective of securing sustainable energy security and stability for Nigeria at an affordable cost.”

Efforts to get the reactions of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, the agency in charge of the domestic crude supply obligation, were unsuccessful. The NUPRC spokesman, Eniola Akinkuotu, did not reply to messages sent to him.

Similarly, the spokesman of NNPC, Andy Odeh, declined to comment when contacted by our correspondent on Thursday.

Experts speak

Meanwhile, as Dangote and modular refineries demand sufficient crude supply in the face of low crude production, experts have called on the government and operators to ramp up production.

An energy expert, Professor Emeritus Wumi Iledare, said meeting oil production targets would depend far less on ambitious projections of the government and far more on practical and on-the-ground actions.

Iledare told The PUNCH that the government must prioritise improved security around oil assets, reduce operational disruptions, fast-track regulatory approvals, and create a stable operating environment that allows existing fields to produce at full capacity.

According to Iledare, Nigeria earned about N55tn from crude oil in 2025, up from roughly N50tn in 2024. “While this is an improvement, it still fell short of what the Federal Government expected for the year,” he said. The don noted that the main issue was not oil prices but production.

He explained that the government planned to produce 766.5 million barrels in 2025 but managed to get only about 599.6 million barrels, saying that means close to 167 million barrels were not produced, and the revenue that could have come with them was lost.

“Looking ahead to 2026, meeting oil production targets will depend far less on ambitious projections and far more on practical, on-the-ground actions. The government must prioritise improved security around oil assets, reduce operational disruptions, fast-track regulatory approvals, and create a stable operating environment that allows existing fields to produce at full capacity,” he stated.

He added that supporting investment in maintenance and infill drilling—while ensuring policy consistency—will be critical to converting planned barrels into actual barrels. The expert called on the Independent Petroleum Producers Group to lead the charge by reopening shut-in wells.

“In this regard, the IPPG holds a key role in near-term production expansion. With appropriate economic and policy incentives, re-entry into shut-in wells in the onshore and shallow-water basins could deliver meaningful production gains within the year,” Iledare explained.

A professor of economics, Segun Ajibola, said the crude production volume is dependent on several factors, many of which are beyond the immediate control of the government itself.

According to him, the government can deploy resources towards oil exploration, but the overall impact depends on technical cooperation by partners, the joint ventures, happenings in the global oil market, and the environmental conditions, among others.

Ajibola maintained that the Nigerian situation is somehow complex, as the key agency in charge, the NNPC, has been enmeshed in controversies over the period.

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The Senate on Wednesday called for a stronger regulatory framework that would place the Central Bank of Nigeria at the centre of supervising the country’s fast-growing financial technology sector.

The upper chamber also demanded tougher measures to curb the rising wave of Ponzi schemes across the country.

Chairman of the Senate Committee on Banking, Insurance and Other Financial Institutions, Senator Mukhail Adetokunbo Abiru (Lagos East), disclosed this during a one-day public hearing at the National Assembly, Abuja.

The hearing focused on the Banks and Other Financial Institutions Act (Amendment) Bill, 2025 (SB. 959) and an investigative session into the operations of Ponzi schemes in Nigeria, with particular reference to the recent Crypto Bullion Exchange incident.

The session was jointly organised by the Senate Committees on Banking, ICT and Cyber Security, Capital Market, and Anti-Corruption and Financial Crimes.

Abiru said the proposed amendment seeks to strengthen the existing legal framework under the Banks and Other Financial Institutions Act, 2020 and provide a clear statutory basis for the designation, registration and supervision of Systemically Important Institutions, particularly technology-driven financial service providers.

According to him, the bill will amend BOFIA 2020 to reflect the realities of Nigeria’s evolving financial ecosystem, where fintech companies now process huge transaction volumes and hold sensitive financial data belonging to millions of Nigerians.

Over the past decade, fintech firms — including mobile money operators, payment platforms, digital lenders and settlement companies — have expanded rapidly, deepening financial inclusion.

However, concerns have grown that the regulatory framework has not kept pace with their scale and systemic importance.

Although the Central Bank of Nigeria currently designates Systemically Important Financial Institutions, the framework largely focuses on banks and does not fully address large, non-bank digital platforms, thereby creating regulatory gaps.

Abiru said the amendment would empower the CBN to designate qualifying fintechs and digital financial institutions as Systemically Important Institutions, establish a national registry to enhance transparency and beneficial ownership disclosure, strengthen risk-based supervision tailored to technology-driven services, and promote data sovereignty and systemic stability.

“The question has arisen as to whether the creation of a new standalone regulatory agency would be a preferable pathway for supervising fintechs.

“However, after careful consideration, it is evident that establishing an entirely new agency would duplicate functions, create bureaucratic overlap, increase administrative costs, and fragment regulatory authority in a sector where coordination and coherence are essential”. Abiru said.

He added that fintech regulation is closely tied to monetary policy, payments oversight, prudential supervision, Know-Your-Customer and Anti-Money Laundering enforcement, as well as systemic risk monitoring — functions that already reside within the Central Bank.

“It is far more effective to strengthen the BOFIA framework, modernise CBN supervisory powers, and mandate robust coordination with agencies such as the Securities and Exchange Commission, Nigerian Communications Commission, National Information Technology Development Agency, Corporate Affairs Commission, Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission, Office of the National Security Adviser and the Federal Ministry of Finance,” he said.

The senator noted that incorporating fintech regulation into BOFIA would prevent regulatory silos and ensure digital financial services remain integrated with the broader banking system.

Beyond fintech regulation, the Senate also intensified its scrutiny of Ponzi schemes and fraudulent digital investment platforms.

Abiru described the growing prevalence of such schemes as a serious threat to financial stability and public confidence.

He cited the recent CBEX incident, which reportedly led to significant losses for many Nigerians, including young professionals, retirees, traders, small business owners and students.

He warned that Ponzi schemes not only cause personal hardship but also undermine trust in legitimate financial institutions, distort capital allocation, damage Nigeria’s financial reputation and increase the risk of money laundering and illicit financial flows.

Following its investigation into regulatory gaps, institutional coordination and the adequacy of existing laws, the Senate proposed stricter measures to curb fraudulent investment platforms.

Stakeholders who made submissions at the hearing included representatives of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Nigerian Deposit Insurance Corporation, Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, Nigerian Communications Commission, Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission, Ministry of Finance Incorporated and the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, among others.

The Senate said it would consider the memoranda submitted before making its final recommendations on the proposed amendment and related regulatory reforms.

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Total Value Added Tax earnings rose to N1.08tn in January as a new sharing formula commenced, altering how the proceeds are split among the Federal Government, states, and Local Governments, findings by The PUNCH have shown.

Documents presented at the February meeting of the Federation Account Allocation Committee and obtained by The PUNCH on Tuesday showed that total VAT collections by the Nigeria Revenue Service stood at N1.08tn in January 2026, compared with N913.96bn in December 2025.

The increase of N169.20bn represents an 18.5 per cent rise month-on-month. However, the full N1.08tn was not available for sharing. VAT deductions at source amounted to N79.94bn in January, up from N67.45bn in December, leaving a net VAT of N1.00tn for distribution.

In December, the net VAT shared stood at N846.51bn. The month-on-month increase in the net distributable VAT was N156.72bn, also representing an 18.5 per cent increase.

January marked the first full month under the revised VAT sharing formula. Under the new structure, 10 per cent of net VAT goes to the Federal Government, 55 per cent to state governments, and 35 per cent to Local Governments.

Previously, the Federal Government received 15 per cent, states 50 per cent, and Local Governments 35 per cent. If the previous 15 per cent formula had been retained, the Federal Government would have received about N150.48bn from the N1.00tn net VAT shared in January, instead of the N100.32bn it got under the new 10 per cent structure, implying a shortfall of roughly N50.16bn.

Conversely, states, which now receive 55 per cent, shared about N551.77bn, meaning their allocation increased by approximately N50.16bn compared to the N501.61bn they would have received under the former 50 per cent formula.

Based on the new sharing formula, from the N1.00tn net VAT shared in January, the Federal Government received N100.32bn, states received N551.77bn, while Local Governments were allocated N351.13bn.

In December, under the old 15 per cent formula, the Federal Government’s VAT share stood at N126.98bn. The January allocation of N100.32bn, therefore, represents a decline of N26.65bn, or about 21 per cent, compared with what the Federal Government received in December.

For states, the impact of the new formula was positive. Their collective share rose to N551.77bn in January from N423.25bn in December, an increase of N128.52bn, equivalent to 30.4 per cent.

Local Governments received N351.13bn in January, up from N296.28bn in December, an increase of N54.85bn or 18.5 per cent.

The cost of collection rose alongside the higher VAT pool. The NRS VAT cost of collection, calculated at 4 per cent, increased to N43.33bn in January from N32.72bn in December, a rise of N10.61bn or 32.4 per cent.

The Nigeria Customs Service import VAT cost of collection, which stood at N3.84bn in December, was nil in January, which may be due to the tax reforms, which made NRS the main agency in charge of collecting government revenue.

Other statutory deductions included 3 per cent to the North East Development Commission Project Account, which rose to N31.20bn from N26.32bn, an increase of N4.87bn. The 0.5 per cent deduction to the Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission increased to N5.42bn from N4.57bn, up by N846.02m.

Combined, the NEDC and RMAFC deductions totalled N36.61bn in January compared with N30.89bn in December, reflecting a month-on-month increase of N5.72bn. The broader FAAC summary showed that total funds available for distribution in January across revenue lines stood at N3.04tn.

Total deductions amounted to N1.14tn, leaving a total net distributable revenue of N1.90tn. Of this amount, N896.78bn came from statutory revenue, while N1.00tn was net VAT. When VAT and statutory revenue were combined, the Federal Government’s total allocation stood at N525.23bn.

State governments received N767.29bn, local governments got N517.28bn, while the 13 per cent derivation share amounted to N90.19bn.

A breakdown of VAT distribution among states showed that Lagos remained the dominant beneficiary. The state’s gross VAT allocation for January stood at N111.22bn. After a deduction of N9.89bn, Lagos retained N101.34bn as state net VAT. Its local governments collectively received N70.57bn.

Oyo ranked second with N24.04bn in gross VAT allocation, while Rivers followed with N23.57bn. Kano received N17.37bn, and the FCT-Abuja was allocated N15.76bn. Bayelsa received N15.07bn. Other top beneficiaries included Katsina with N13.82bn, Jigawa with N12.92bn, Delta with N12.89bn, and Kaduna with N12.73bn.

At the lower end of the allocation scale, Ebonyi received N9.45bn, Ekiti N9.83bn, Taraba N9.37bn, and Nasarawa N9.77bn.

Although the equality component accounts for 50 per cent of the states’ distribution formula, the 30 per cent population and 20 per cent derivation factors continue to create wide disparities between high-activity and lower-activity states.

The non-import local VAT collection table shows the concentration of VAT generation. Total non-import VAT collections for January stood at N913.47bn, compared with N721.83bn in December, representing an increase of N191.65bn or 26.5 per cent.

Lagos alone generated N533.40bn in non-import VAT in January, accounting for 58.39 per cent of the total. Oyo generated N67.18bn, Rivers N66.35bn, FCT-Abuja N39.73bn, and Bayelsa N34.62bn.

For local governments, Lagos councils received N70.57bn in net VAT, Oyo councils got N18.04bn, Kano councils received N16.29bn, Rivers councils got N15.47bn, and Katsina councils received N11.76bn.

A VAT income comparison sheet showed that against a benchmark of N625.13bn, the January VAT collection of N913.96bn exceeded the benchmark by N288.82bn.

The N1.08tn total VAT earnings figure exceeded the same benchmark by N458.03bn, producing a cumulative difference of N746.85bn over the period reflected.

The PUNCH earlier reported that the 36 states of the federation would likely receive an estimated N5.07tn as their share of Value Added Tax in 2026, following the commencement of a new VAT sharing formula introduced under the National Tax Acts.

This development was contained in the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper approved by the Federal Executive Council.

However, with VAT earnings exceeding projections in January and February, states may earn higher than N5.07tn if the current actual earning pattern persists throughout the year.

The PUNCH earlier reported that the Nigeria Economic Summit Group warned that the Federal Government could face revenue shortfalls if it does not increase the value-added tax rate as part of the ongoing tax reform process.

The Chief Executive Officer of NESG, Dr Tayo Aduloju, made this statement during an interactive media session in Abuja. He emphasised that while reforms to the VAT system are essential, maintaining the current VAT rate without an increase could result in a significant loss of revenue for the government.

Speaking on the issue, Aduloju said, “Without those rate hikes, it means that the government might lose some revenue.” Aduloju explained that the current tax reform process must strike a balance between simplifying the tax system and increasing the VAT rate to maintain revenue stability.

According to him, simply reducing the number of taxes without adjusting the VAT rate could weaken the government’s revenue base.

Also, in its most recent Article IV Consultation Report on Nigeria, the International Monetary Fund noted that although the recent tax reforms approved by the National Assembly and President Bola Tinubu represent a major step forward in modernising the VAT and Company Income Tax regimes, the choice to maintain the current VAT rate would lead to an immediate revenue shortfall.

It stated that the Federal Government may lose as much as 0.5 per cent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product in revenue following its decision not to raise the VAT rate.

“The decision not to raise the VAT rate now is reasonable, given high poverty and food insecurity, and with the cash transfer system to support the most vulnerable households not yet fully rolled out. However, this will reduce consolidated government revenue by up to ½ per cent of GDP in the authorities’ estimates,” the report noted.

According to the Fund, unless alternative financing options are found, subnational governments may be forced to either scale back spending or ramp up their own revenue efforts. The IMF, however, acknowledged the government’s justification for delaying a VAT hike, particularly at a time of worsening poverty and food insecurity.

Speaking recently at the launch of the BudgIT State of States 2025 Report in Abuja, where he delivered the keynote address, the Chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, projected that states could earn more than N4tn annually from 2026 when new Value Added Tax reforms take effect.

He said, “With VAT reforms kicking in from 2026, states’ share will rise to 55 per cent. That could amount to over N4tn in 2026. The question is: will this money be spent, or will it be invested?”

States IGR boost

Economic analysts called on state governments to intensify efforts to unlock internal revenue as their allocations under the revised sharing formula increase. In separate interviews with The PUNCH, they noted that Value Added Tax has never been a major revenue pillar for the Federal Government.

A former Chairman of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, Prof Segun Ajibola, said the Federal Government had always focused on other revenue sources. “The federal government has never emphasised VAT as a major revenue source. When the law was amended, the government made it clear that it would benefit the state and the local government more,” Ajibola explained.

The economist added that the Federal Government was strengthening alternative revenue streams, stating, “There are so many revenue sources the federal government is looking at to beef up its own revenue, like capital gains tax and other federally collected revenue, excess duties, and so on. In fact, an increase in VAT is to benefit states and local governments. The pertinent question is what happens to it upon getting there.”

Ajibola expressed concern about living conditions across states. “The states are bleeding. And when I say the states are bleeding, I mean the masses. Schools are dilapidated, roads are bad, people are hungry, health care facilities are nowhere,” he lamented.

He called for transparency in the use of the increased allocations, adding, “If a state government wants to be accountable, each state government should set up a desk to account for the increase in the VAT allocation and make the report known to the public. There is so much to spend on agriculture and other public utilities.”

Also, the Chief Executive Officer of Economic Associates, Dr Ayo Teriba, said VAT historically replaced state sales tax and originally belonged to states. “The tax belonged to the states. It is for ease of collection that the federal government decides to collect on behalf of the states,” Teriba noted.

He, however, argued that the Federal Government could justifiably retain a stronger share. “There’s no reason why the federal government should collect cross-border VAT payments and surrender them to states. The Federal Government should retain it since it also has responsibilities,” Teriba said.

The analyst cautioned states against overdependence on statutory allocations, advising, “Not to make a mountain out of a molehill (as) these are smaller amounts for the states.”

He pointed to Enugu State as a model, noting, “States that can do better than just wait for VAT or FAAC, like Enugu State, will be better models. If they repeat what they have done, their internally generated revenue will be bigger than FAAC and VAT combined. Other states should emulate that. They are unlocking revenue not by taxing people,” Teriba remarked.