About 63 per cent of Nigerians fell below the poverty line after the removal of petrol subsidy, according to a new study that examined the welfare impact of the country’s recent economic reforms.

The research, presented at a stakeholders’ dialogue organised by Agora Policy in Abuja on Thursday, showed that the national poverty headcount rose sharply from a baseline of about 49.8 per cent to roughly 63 per cent following the subsidy removal before moderating slightly after the introduction of social protection measures.

The dialogue, themed “Sustaining and Deepening Economic Reforms in Nigeria,” brought together policymakers, economists, civil society leaders, and private sector representatives to examine the effects of the Federal Government’s reform agenda.

Among those present were the Deputy Governor for Economic Policy at the Central Bank of Nigeria, Dr Muhammad Abdullahi; the Special Adviser to the President on Finance and Economy, Ms Sanyade Okoli; the World Bank Senior Economist for Nigeria, Dr Samer Matta; the Country Director of CARE International, Dr Hussaini Abdu; and the Executive Director of Agora Policy, Waziri Adio, among others.

The study, presented by a Senior Lecturer at the  Department of Economics, University of Abuja, Dr Mohammed Shuaibu, analysed the economic and social consequences of key reforms introduced by the Federal Government, including the removal of petrol subsidy and adjustments in electricity tariffs.

President Bola Tinubu had announced the end of petrol subsidy during his inaugural address on May 29, 2023. According to the study, the policy triggered broad price increases across the economy and significantly affected household welfare. “After the subsidy removal, poverty increased from a baseline of about 50 per cent to 63 per cent,” Shuaibu said.

He added that the introduction of social protection measures helped moderate the impact but did not fully reverse the deterioration in welfare conditions. “However, when social protection measures such as cash transfers were introduced, the poverty rate moderated to around 56.2 per cent,” he said.

The findings indicated that the immediate effects of the reform were unevenly distributed across different income groups. While high-income households remained largely insulated from the shocks, low-income households experienced the most severe erosion of purchasing power.

Data from the study showed that poverty among low-income households rose sharply from about 50 per cent before subsidy removal to roughly 63 per cent afterwards, while the national poverty gap widened significantly.

The poverty gap at the national level increased from 31.6 per cent to more than 45 per cent following the policy change, indicating a deeper level of deprivation among poor households.

Although social transfers slightly reduced the gap, the improvement remained limited due to delays in the rollout of intervention programmes and the relatively small scale of support provided.

The study also assessed how the reforms affected household consumption patterns. According to the findings, consumption levels declined across income groups following the removal of the subsidy and the adjustment of electricity tariffs.

“Across the board, household consumption declined following both the subsidy removal and electricity tariff adjustments. However, social transfers helped cushion the impact, especially for low-income households,” Shuaibu said.

The analysis showed that the effect on consumption was particularly pronounced among rural and low-income households, where rising energy and transport costs significantly reduced spending capacity.

Households in urban low-income groups also experienced declines in consumption, although the impact was somewhat moderated where social transfers were introduced.

Beyond household welfare, the research also examined the broader macroeconomic consequences of electricity tariff reforms.

The study found that electricity tariff adjustments resulted in a modest increase in consumer prices, initially raising prices by about 0.26 per cent, which later rose to roughly 0.52 per cent after the inclusion of social protection measures.

However, the electricity reform produced a small positive impact on economic output. According to the analysis, real Gross Domestic Product increased by about 0.42 per cent under the reform scenario before moderating to around 0.21 per cent when social protection programmes were factored into the model.

Firm-level investment also recorded slight gains following electricity tariff adjustments, although these improvements were partly offset by the cost of implementing social protection measures.

In contrast, the removal of the petrol subsidy had a contractionary effect on economic activity. The study showed that rising fuel prices and transport costs triggered inflationary pressures that weighed on business activity and investment.

Beyond the quantitative modelling, the research incorporated insights from focus group discussions conducted across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones. These discussions involved households and businesses and provided qualitative evidence on how Nigerians were coping with the economic changes.

Participants generally acknowledged the need for reforms given the country’s fiscal and macroeconomic challenges, but many criticised the speed at which the policies were introduced.

Households reported that the reforms rapidly eroded purchasing power and forced many families to adopt survival strategies. “Households adjusted to the shocks not through recovery but through sacrifice,” Shuaibu said.

According to the study, many households responded by cutting consumption, reducing transport use, rationing electricity, and borrowing money to meet basic needs. Several respondents also said they had received little or no assistance from government support programmes designed to mitigate the effects of the reforms.

Businesses reported similar difficulties, noting that rising fuel and electricity costs significantly increased operating expenses. Some firms said they had been forced to raise prices, reduce staff strength, or shut down operations entirely.

Others reported switching to alternative energy sources to cope with rising electricity tariffs and fuel costs. However, many business owners said that promised government support programmes had either not reached them or were insufficient to offset rising costs.

The study concluded that while the reforms were necessary to correct structural distortions in the Nigerian economy, their implementation created severe short-term shocks.

Providing a monetary policy perspective at the dialogue, the Deputy Governor of the CBN for Economic Policy, Muhammad Abdullahi, said the reforms became unavoidable because the Nigerian economy had been weakened by deep structural distortions.

“Nigeria faced severe macroeconomic imbalances, economic distortions, and collapsing revenues before major reforms began,” he said.

According to Abdullahi, the country had suffered a dramatic decline in oil revenue over the past decade.

He disclosed that earnings from crude oil fell from about $92bn in 2012 to less than $2bn in 2023, representing a decline of nearly 98 per cent in expected revenue during the period.

The situation, he said, contributed to severe fiscal pressure and made policy reforms unavoidable. The CBN official also noted that Nigeria inherited major distortions in the foreign exchange market, including multiple exchange rate windows that encouraged arbitrage.

According to him, the subsidy regime and exchange rate distortions together were estimated to have cost the Nigerian economy about six per cent of its Gross Domestic Product.

Abdullahi also disclosed that the CBN inherited a backlog of about $7bn in foreign exchange obligations owed to businesses and investors. He said the apex bank had already cleared about $4.5bn of the backlog in an effort to restore confidence in the financial system.

He added that restoring confidence in the foreign exchange market and improving oil sector performance were critical to stabilising the economy. Abdullahi also said Nigeria’s foreign reserve position was weaker than it appeared before the reforms.

Although official reserves were reported to be about $32bn, he explained that much of the funds consisted of borrowed resources and swaps, leaving the country with net reserves of only about $800m.

Despite the difficult transition, he said the reforms were beginning to produce early results. According to him, inflation has been declining steadily for about 19 months, while food inflation is currently at its lowest level in about 13 years.

He added that Nigeria was gradually moving towards single-digit inflation, something the country has not achieved in more than a decade. Abdullahi further stated that net foreign reserves had improved significantly, rising from about $800m to roughly $32bn, a development he said had strengthened international investor confidence.

He also pointed to rising non-oil exports, which reached about $6bn last year, with the government targeting $12bn in the near future.

Also speaking at the dialogue, the Director-General of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Dr Chinyere Almona, said the reforms had corrected several long-standing distortions but had also placed heavy pressure on businesses.

Almona noted that the removal of petrol subsidy alone could save the government about $7.5bn annually, which should be invested in infrastructure and human capital development. “For the private sector, what we want to see is that the savings from the fuel subsidy removal are actually being used to fund infrastructure,” she said.

She explained that rising fuel prices had significantly increased electricity generation costs for businesses. Almona added that while macroeconomic indicators such as reserves and the balance of payments had improved, many Nigerians had yet to experience the benefits.

“The economy is improving at the macro level, but that improvement has not trickled down to the common man and many small businesses,” she said.

She therefore urged the government to introduce complementary policies that would support businesses, including improved access to credit and targeted assistance for small and medium-sized enterprises.

The Chair of Agora Policy, Ojobo Ode Atuluku, said the dialogue was organised to promote evidence-based discussion on Nigeria’s reform agenda. He explained that the initiative was supported by the Nigeria Economic Stability and Transformation programme and the United Kingdom’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.

World Bank economist Samer Matta urged the government to expand social protection programmes and strengthen the National Social Register to ensure that assistance reaches vulnerable populations quickly.

He added that sustained dialogue and stronger safety nets would be critical to maintaining public support for Nigeria’s economic reforms and ensuring that growth becomes more inclusive.

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Energy, fintech, and telecommunications companies generate the highest number of consumer complaints in Nigeria, the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) has declared.

The agency’s Executive Vice Chairman, Tunji Bello, made this known on Thursday while briefing State House correspondents at the Aso Rock Presidential Villa, Abuja. Bello said the commission had received thousands of complaints from Nigerians across these sectors and had recovered over N20bn for consumers as of March 2026.

According to him, the commission resolved more than 9,000 complaints and recovered over N10bn for consumers between March and August 2025 alone.

“Let me tell you where most complaints come from. Mostly on energy, fintech. For energy, people complain about the electricity supply, and so on. That’s where we get most complaints. And that led to recent action in Lagos against a disco. Also fintech. You know, people do a lot of transactions online, and most of them are either given unfair terms.

“Somebody has borrowed money, and then you discover that when they ask to pay back, the interest rate is outrageous. Most of them we have interrogated, and we’ve been able to resolve as many as possible,” Bello stated.

He added that the telecommunications sector and banks also account for significant complaints, noting that the commission receives about 25,000 complaints annually through various platforms. Bello said cumulative recoveries for consumers had exceeded N20bn as of March 2026, up from N10bn recorded in October 2025.

The FCCPC boss also revealed that the commission had begun monitoring petrol prices and other commodities across the country following the escalating United States-Israeli-Iran conflict in the Middle East. He said the agency deployed monitors nationwide to track price movements and prevent fuel suppliers and petrol stations from exploiting Nigerians.

“We are presently monitoring the situation as it affects prices in Nigeria and various prices. Because it’s not just petrol. Petrol has supply effects on some of the things we eat or we take on a daily basis.

“So we are monitoring. I will still want to see it as a temporary measure. But you know, the federal government under the leadership of our president has recorded massive gains in the last two years, and we don’t want to see this as something that will now begin to offset that progress,” Bello said.

He explained that the commission was working with regulators in the petroleum sector to ensure compliance with pricing regulations.

“Whatever the fuel suppliers dictate, if the petrol stations are not complying, those are the things we are trying to monitor. If somebody has reduced N100 or N200 from it and you are still selling your own for N1,500 per litre, we should be able to ask you, ‘ Why are you doing that? So those are the things that our monitors are outside already monitoring developments,” he stated.

Bello also disclosed that the commission was collaborating with the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission to strengthen compliance oversight.

In the aviation sector, Bello said the commission would compel airlines that hiked ticket prices during the December 2025 Yuletide period to refund excess charges to passengers who were exploited.

He disclosed that investigations into price-fixing allegations involving about five or six airlines had been concluded and that the commission would soon release its final report with penalties.

“We investigated following the complaints that they fixed prices during the Christmas period. Prices of airline tickets were around N45,000 to N50,000, and suddenly became N400,000 to N500,000, from N400,000 to N670,000 during the Christmas period. So we followed up through our investigation, and we were able to conclude that it was a kind of price-fixing mechanism,” Bello said.

He added that the preliminary report had already found the airlines culpable of price exploitation. “The preliminary report already found them wanting in that regard, so the final report is going to be issued very soon.

“And what we are also considering is to look at a situation where we have to ask them to refund the excess to the passengers, which they exploited. So those are some things we are considering. By the time we come up with the final report, you will see that,” he stated.

When pressed to name the airlines involved, Bello declined but confirmed that about five or six carriers were under investigation. “I know about five or six, but I don’t want to mention names,” he said.

The commission’s action followed complaints from Nigerians who travelled during the Christmas and New Year period and were forced to pay exorbitant fares for domestic flights due to high demand and limited seat availability.

Many travellers had taken to social media to protest the sudden spike in ticket prices, describing them as exploitative given the prevailing economic hardship. Bello said preliminary findings suggested that the airlines might have engaged in collective price-fixing, a practice prohibited under the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act.

Price-fixing occurs when competing businesses agree to set prices at a certain level rather than allowing market forces to determine pricing, and it is considered anti-competitive behaviour punishable under Nigerian law. Previous enforcement actions by the FCCPC have typically focused on fines and penalties payable to the government.

During the briefing, the FCCPC also addressed concerns about electricity tariff bands, with officials defending the Band A classification while acknowledging that consumers are not always receiving the promised 20 hours of daily power supply.

The Commission’s Executive Commissioner of Operations, Louis Odion, explained that the commission’s role was not price control but ensuring that consumers were not exploited through the pricing of products or services.

“We are not a price control agency, but what we try to do is to ensure that consumers are not exploited, either by way of the pricing of products or services. In the electricity sector, that is where we have most of the challenges that consumers contend with in this country,” he said.

Odion disclosed that Band A consumers, who pay higher tariffs, are entitled to at least 20 hours of electricity supply daily, while Band B consumers should receive 16 hours. He urged consumers to formally complain when they do not receive the promised hours of supply, noting that the commission operates an evidence-based system.

“A lot of times, if you go ask them, they will tell you this estate is actually on Band A, but we haven’t received any formal complaint from the estate as to the fact that this is the number of hours of electricity we are receiving. Our operational work is evidence-based. If we do not have evidence of a particular issue, we are not able to actually act on it,” he explained.

On prosecution powers, the commission’s Head of Legal Services, Chizenum Nsitem, revealed that the FCCPC had prosecuted over 25 cases since the operationalisation of the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act in 2019.

“At the last count, we have over 25 cases that we have been able to prosecute, given the infractions of the provisions of the FCCPA. For the fear of being prosecuted, undertakings have complied relatively with provisions of the FCCPA,” Nsitem said.

He disclosed that the commission currently has over 30 cases pending at the Federal High Court and the FCCPC Tribunal, including five cases at the Court of Appeal where undertakings have appealed tribunal decisions.

The legal chief cited Section 20(2) of the FCCPA, which empowers legal officers to prosecute on behalf of the commission, and Section 113, which allows referral of cases to the Attorney-General of the Federation.

The FCCPC was established to protect and promote the interests and welfare of consumers, ensure that consumers’ rights are respected, and provide them with access to information to make informed choices.

Nigeria’s aviation sector has faced criticism over fluctuating ticket prices, with airlines attributing high fares to rising aviation fuel costs, foreign exchange challenges, and operational expenses.

On cement prices, Bello said the commission had set up an investigative team to probe pricing across the federation following complaints from Nigerians.

“We are already investigating the cement prices across the Federation. I don’t want to preempt that investigation. We have set up an investigative team already. They are going around at the moment. And I’m sure by the time we come out with our full report, it will be published, and everybody will see,” Bello said.

On telecommunications tariffs, Bello revealed that the FCCPC worked with the Nigerian Communications Commission last year to reduce a proposed 100 per cent tariff increase by telecom companies to 50 per cent.

“Last year, when they were going to increase the rates telecoms were charging, through our MOU with them, they consulted us. The telecom companies were going to increase by 100 per cent. We persuaded through that negotiation that no, you cannot, because of the inflation rate at that time. We were able to manage them to come down to 50 per cent,” Bello said.

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State governments have called for a forensic audit of Nigeria’s crude oil-backed borrowing arrangements, warning that opaque crude-for-loan and swap deals may be undermining inflows into the Federation Account.

The PUNCH earlier reported that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited pledged 272,500 barrels per day of crude oil through a series of crude-for-loan deals totalling $8.86bn, according to an analysis of a report by the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative and the NNPC’s financial statements.

According to The PUNCH’s findings, NNPC has already fully repaid $2.61bn in loans, representing 29.4 per cent of the total credit facility, while $6.25bn or 70.6 per cent, remains outstanding. Also, out of the $8.86bn credit facility, only about $6.97bn has been received from seven crude-for-loan deals, as of December 2023.

However, state governments, through their commissioners of finance, are demanding an audit of these deals.

The demand was contained in a communiqué issued at the end of the 2026 retreat of the Federation Account Allocation Committee Post-Mortem Sub-Committee, obtained by The PUNCH on Thursday, which stated that, “All crude oil-backed borrowing arrangements should be subjected to legislative approval, full disclosure, and independent audit. Existing arrangements should be reviewed, with forensic audits conducted to restore confidence and protect future Federation revenues.”

The communiqué followed a three-day retreat held in Enugu between February 9 and February 11, where fiscal authorities, state representatives, revenue agencies, and policy experts met to examine persistent revenue leakages affecting the Federation Account.

The retreat, which focused on “Assessing Fiscal and Sectoral Policies for Closing Revenue Leakage in the Federation Account,” was organised to critically assess fiscal frameworks and administrative practices affecting federal revenue collections and distribution to the three tiers of government.

According to the communiqué, the meeting was convened by the FAAC Post-Mortem Sub-Committee to “critically assess fiscal and sectoral policies contributing to revenue leakage in the Federation Account and to reposition the Sub-Committee for a more proactive revenue assurance role.”

The retreat was formally opened by the Governor of Enugu State, Dr Peter Mbah, who was represented by the Secretary to the State Government, Prof Chidiebere Onyia. In his goodwill message, Onyia welcomed participants and reaffirmed the importance of fiscal coordination and transparency in managing public finances.

He also emphasised the need for stronger accountability mechanisms in the management of Federation revenues, while commending the FAAC Post-Mortem Sub-Committee and the Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission for their efforts to strengthen public finance governance in the country.

The communiqué indicated that the welcome address was delivered by the Chairman of the FAAC Post-Mortem Sub-Committee, Abdulazeez King.

Goodwill messages were also delivered by the Chairman of the Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission, Dr Mohammed Shehu, who was represented by Federal Commissioner, Ntufam Whiley.

The former Minister of State for Finance, who is now the Minister of State for Budget, Dr Doris Uzoka-Anite, and the Permanent Secretary of the Federal Ministry of Finance, Mr Raymond Omachi, were represented at the event by Dr Ali Mohammed, Director of Home Finance.

A keynote address on the theme of the retreat was delivered by the Accountant-General of the Federation, Mr Shamseldeen Ogunjimi, who was represented by Mrs Rita Okolie, Director of the Federation Account at the Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation.

Participants at the retreat included representatives of the Federal and State Governments, revenue-generating agencies, oversight institutions, and technical experts.

According to the communiqué, deliberations during the sessions were enriched by presentations covering a broad range of fiscal governance issues, including the Federation Account framework, reforms in the petroleum sector, tax policy changes, audit oversight, crude oil-backed borrowing, and administrative practices affecting government revenue inflows.

Participants at the retreat reaffirmed the constitutional importance of the Federation Account as the central pool through which revenue is shared among the three tiers of government.

The communiqué noted that the account, established under Section 162 of the 1999 Constitution, “remains the backbone of fiscal sustainability for the three tiers of government.”

However, it warned that several structural challenges continue to erode the volume of distributable revenues available to the Federal Government, states, and local governments.

The communiqué stated that participants unanimously observed that “persistent revenue leakages, opaque deductions, institutional inefficiencies, and weak oversight continue to erode distributable revenues.”

The retreat also expressed concern over the increasing scale of quasi-fiscal deductions from Federation revenues. These deductions, according to participants, include power sector subsidy obligations, debt write-offs, and operational expenses deducted at source before revenue is remitted into the Federation Account.

The communiqué stated that these practices were widely viewed as inconsistent with the principles of transparency and fiscal discipline.

It said, “The retreat noted with concern the growing scale of quasi-fiscal deductions from Federation revenues, including power-related subsidy obligations, debt write-offs, and operational costs deducted at source. These practices were considered inconsistent with transparency, budgetary discipline, and constitutional intent.”

Participants also examined the implications of the Petroleum Industry Act and its impact on the management of oil and gas revenues. While acknowledging that the legislation has created opportunities for improved governance in the petroleum sector, the retreat raised concerns about certain operational practices under the new framework.

According to the communiqué, participants noted that issues surrounding the transfer of joint venture assets to NNPC Limited, management fees, production sharing contract profit oil administration, and the Frontier Exploration Fund had raised serious concerns among stakeholders.

“These developments were observed to have materially reduced inflows into the Federation Account and weakened oversight,” the communiqué stated.

The retreat further stressed the importance of transparency, accountability, and stronger oversight mechanisms in the management of public finances. Participants agreed that unrestricted access to Federation Account data by oversight institutions was essential for effective monitoring and recovery of government revenues.

The communiqué stated, “Transparency, accountability, and oversight are indispensable to closing revenue leakages. It was resolved that unrestricted access to Federation Account data by oversight institutions, particularly the Office of the Auditor-General for the Federation, is critical for effective monitoring, audit, and recovery of revenues.”

Participants also highlighted the role of the Supreme Audit Institution in preventing and detecting revenue leakages. The retreat emphasised the need to strengthen audit capacity and improve the timeliness of audit reporting to ensure that audit findings lead to concrete revenue recovery and deterrence against financial misconduct.

According to the communiqué, “Participants underscored the constitutional role of the Supreme Audit Institution in preventing and detecting revenue leakages. The retreat called for strengthened audit capacity, timely audit reporting, and enforceable follow-up mechanisms to ensure that audit findings translate into actual revenue recovery and deterrence.”

The meeting also raised concerns about the high cost of revenue collection by some government agencies. Participants described these costs as a major drain on the Federation Account and called for reforms to align collection charges with global best practices.

“The high cost of revenue collection by certain agencies was identified as a major drain on the Federation Account,” the communiqué said.

It added that participants resolved that cost-of-collection arrangements should be periodically reviewed and benchmarked against international standards. The retreat also welcomed ongoing tax reforms aimed at expanding the tax base and improving compliance across the country.

Participants noted that the reforms could significantly boost government revenue if implemented effectively. The communiqué stated that tax reforms should focus on strengthening compliance mechanisms and reducing fragmentation within the tax system.

Another major area of concern discussed at the retreat was the growing reliance on crude oil-backed borrowing and crude-for-product swap arrangements. The communiqué specifically mentioned arrangements such as Project Gazelle and the Direct Sale Direct Purchase scheme.

It stated that participants expressed “grave concern over crude oil-backed borrowing arrangements and opaque crude-for-product swaps, including Project Gazelle and the Direct Sale Direct Purchase scheme.”

The retreat noted that such arrangements could reduce transparency in revenue flows and weaken accountability in the management of oil revenues. It was, therefore, recommended that any future crude-backed financing arrangements must receive legislative approval and be subject to full disclosure and independent audits.

Participants also called for stronger collaboration between RMAFC and NNPC Limited to ensure proper accounting for oil revenues. The communiqué recommended that RMAFC should intensify engagement with the national oil company to obtain complete documentation relating to joint venture asset transfers and to compute net revenues due to the Federation.

It said the commission should also pursue appropriate recovery actions where discrepancies are identified.

The PUNCH earlier reported that about 14.66 per cent of Nigeria’s crude oil production in 2025 was likely committed to servicing crude-backed loan facilities, based on estimates derived from disclosures in the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited’s 2024 financial statements and official production data.

An analysis by The PUNCH shows that four major crude-secured arrangements — Project Gazelle, Project Yield, Project Leopard, and Eagle Export Funding — are backed by a combined 213,000 barrels of crude oil per day.

If this allocation remained unchanged throughout 2025, the total volume committed to debt servicing would amount to 77.75 million barrels for the year, calculated by multiplying 213,000 barrels per day by 365 days.

Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission indicate that Nigeria produced 530.41 million barrels of crude oil between January and December 2025.

The 77.75 million barrels tied to crude-for-loan arrangements therefore represent 14.66 per cent of total annual production. Using the 2025 average Bonny Light price of $72.08 per barrel, the 77.75 million barrels translate to about $5.60bn.

Converted at the official exchange rate of N1,492 to the dollar, the crude potentially deployed to service the loans is valued at approximately N8.36tn. This implies that out of the estimated gross crude oil earnings for 2025, a sizeable portion of output by volume was effectively earmarked for debt servicing before revenues could fully accrue to government coffers.

The obligations span multiple forward-sale and project-financing arrangements expected to be serviced through substantial crude oil and gas deliveries. These commitments have become a central pillar of NNPC’s funding framework following years of fiscal strain, volatile production, and declining upstream investment.

Several of the facilities were used to refinance legacy debts, fund refinery rehabilitation, support cash flow, and meet government revenue obligations.

The Chief Executive Officer of AHA Strategies, Mr Ademola Adigun, earlier linked declining oil earnings to opaque crude-for-cash arrangements and undisclosed loan repayments that have tied up part of the country’s output.

“Some of our crude is already tied up in loan agreements. The problem is that Nigeria doesn’t know the full details of these transactions because there’s little transparency around them,” Adigun said.

He added that several crude-backed projects, including Project Gazelle, were executed without adequate public disclosure or parliamentary scrutiny, urging the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative to strengthen its audits.

Development economist and Chief Executive Officer of CSA Advisory, Dr Aliyu Ilias, said Nigeria’s crude trading structure had grown increasingly complex, involving swaps and oil-to-naira transactions that might not be fully captured in official records.

The Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, recalled that during the tenure of former Central Bank Governor, Godwin Emefiele, several forward-sale deals were signed to raise emergency funds amid fiscal pressure.

“During the Emefiele years, Nigeria committed a lot of its crude upfront,” he said. “Those forward sales are still eating into our current earnings.”

Yusuf, however, noted that transparency and professionalism within the NNPCL had improved under the current administration of Bayo Ojulari. “Under the new management of the NNPC, there’s better professionalism and openness,” he said.

He added that full disclosure of crude swap and forward-sale agreements is necessary to restore confidence in oil revenue reporting.

The Chief Corporate Communications Officer of NNPC Limited, Andy Odeh, had not responded to enquiries sent to him regarding the crude-for-loan arrangements as of the time this report was filed.