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Blackouts cost Nigeria N40tn yearly – Report

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Nigeria loses about N40tn annually to poor electricity supply, the Nigerian Independent System Operator, an agency of the Federal Government, has said, warning that unreliable power remains one of the biggest constraints to economic growth, industrial productivity, and job creation in the country.

The system operator noted that persistent outages continue to impose high costs on businesses and households, many of which are forced to generate their own electricity.

According to the organisation, reliable electricity remains one of Nigeria’s most important economic priorities, stressing that power outages cost Nigeria up to $29bn annually.

Converted at the prevailing exchange rate of N1,385 to a dollar, this translates to roughly N40.1tn in yearly losses to the economy. The operator added that the burden extends across all sectors, stating that businesses, manufacturers, and households spend billions each year generating their own electricity.

“Reliable electricity is one of Nigeria’s most important economic priorities. Power outages cost Nigeria an estimated $29bn annually. Businesses, manufacturers, and households spend billions each year generating their own electricity,” the system operator said in its latest industry report.

It emphasised that a stable power supply would unlock economic opportunities, noting that “a stable national grid unlocks economic growth, industrial productivity, and job creation”.

Despite the huge demand, the organisation said Nigeria generates significantly more electricity than is ultimately delivered to consumers due to structural bottlenecks across the value chain.

It disclosed that Nigeria generates approximately 45,000 to 50,000 megawatts of electricity daily, but the grid only takes 5,000 megawatts, which is about 10 per cent of total generation. “Nigeria generates approximately 45-50 GW of electricity daily, far more electricity than the grid can deliver. Yet only about 5GW currently reaches the national grid,” it said.

The operator attributed the shortfall to multiple challenges, saying, “The gap reflects constraints across the value chain, including transmission capacity limitations, distribution network constraints, and gas supply disruption.”

To address these issues, the system operator outlined its responsibilities, noting that NISO’s mandate is to strengthen grid reliability and accountability. It added that its duties include enforcing the national grid code, strengthening system dispatch and reliability, improving sector transparency and accountability, and supporting coordination across the electricity value chain.

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The organisation stressed the urgency of reforms, stating that a stable national grid is essential for Nigeria’s economic future. It also quoted its board chairman, Adesegun Akin-Olugbade, as saying, “Electricity is, after all, a 19th-century technology, and we do not need rocket scientists to fix these problems.”

Making recommendations, the operator said the way forward is to digitalise the grid, strengthen infrastructure, diversify the energy mix, and enforce grid code compliance.

On the feats recorded in the past year of NISO’s creation, the organisation pointed to ongoing improvements in transmission infrastructure, noting that 82 new power transformers were commissioned between 2024 and 2025. It added that 8,500+ MVA additional transformer capacity had been added, while over 30 transmission projects were completed.

According to the operator, the national grid wheeling capacity now stands at approximately 8,700MW. The organisation further disclosed that the grid had recorded operational milestones in recent years, including a 5,802MW all-time peak generation in March 2025, a 129,370MWh record daily energy delivery, and 421 consecutive days without grid collapse during 2022–2023.

“These milestones demonstrate the potential of the system when operating conditions align,” it said.

The agency also highlighted progress in grid digitalisation through the SCADA/EMS programme, stating that there had been a “$1.16bn investment in grid digitalisation,” with over 3,000 kilometres of fibre optic network deployed and more than 100 substations equipped with SCADA technology, adding that the project had reached approximately 69 per cent completion.

It emphasised that improved monitoring would strengthen operations, noting that real-time monitoring enables faster decision-making and improved grid stability. The operator reiterated that bridging the gap between generation and delivery remains critical, stressing that Nigeria generates far more electricity than consumers receive, while transmission, distribution, and gas supply challenges continue to limit the amount of power that reaches the grid.

As Nigerians continue to grapple with widespread power outages blamed on gas constraints since the beginning of the year, the Transmission Company of Nigeria blamed multiple factors for low allocation, including generation companies’ output and requests by the DisCos. TCN said electricity load allocation to distribution companies is determined mainly by their daily requests.

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So far, power generation has fallen far below 4,000MW, limiting the capacity of DisCos to supply electricity to their customers. Our correspondent reports that data from TCN’s distribution load profile as of 25 March 2026 showed that a paltry 2,908 megawatts was allocated to the 11 distribution companies.

While Nigerians experience persistent outages, several distribution companies keep apologising to customers and attributing the situation to reduced generation caused by gas constraints. The Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, also apologised on Tuesday, acknowledging the disruptions and assuring Nigerians that efforts were ongoing to stabilise supply in a few weeks.

The minister attributed current blackouts to gas supply constraints affecting 75 per cent of Nigeria’s gas-fired plants. “Even the best turbines cannot operate without raw materials. Global gas shortages due to the Middle East crisis, local supply obligations, outstanding payments to gas suppliers, and pipeline repairs have all contributed to the recent decline in generation,” he said.

According to him, only two out of 32 power plants currently have firm gas supply contracts, while the rest rely on irregular supplies on a best-effort basis.

Experts speak

A Professor of Energy, Dayo Ayoade of the University of Lagos, blamed corruption and poor governance for the country’s electricity woes. According to him, the economy will continue to lose money and will not develop “provided we don’t take control of the power sector”.

Ayoade said the economy will continue to suffer because self-generation is too costly for the common man and small businesses.

“Until the power sector is put right, the economy will continue to suffer, Nigerians will continue to suffer, and there is no way out of this. Self-generation doesn’t work because it’s inefficient. The kind of resources you need to generate power, like gas, are out of the hands of private individuals or companies. So, it is very important that the government takes the lead on this,” he stated.

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The professor said the way forward is for the government to undertake holistic reforms of the sector, calling for the removal of electricity subsidies.

“That reform requires us to tell one another the truth. Nigerians will have to pay more money for power. Tariffs must reflect the cost of delivering electricity. Also, creating new institutions like GAMCO and others all the time means there is a proliferation of institutions in the sector. We need to streamline the sector; we need to control corruption,” he said.

Ayoade added that governance is key to the power sector. “One of the reasons the sector is not working is poor governance. Billions of dollars were spent on power in the past with no appreciable electricity. We can’t continue down that way. There are too many loopholes and leakages. We have to address this,” he submitted.

The convener of PowerUp, Adetayo Adegbemle, reiterated that the sector is bleeding because bulk power users have exited the grid, making cost recovery a burden. He said operators may not be able to boost power generation in the face of low recovery.

“We have allowed the big consumers to escape the national grid, pushing the load of sustaining it onto residential consumers. The tariff becomes more expensive for them, while producers continue to seek alternatives, albeit more costly. The Federal Government should, as a matter of urgency, reverse this trend to boost power supply,” he said.

Adegbemle also noted that the electricity subsidy is no longer sustainable, saying the government ought to have found a way out of the burden. He emphasised that the subsidy affects the entire value chain, as the Federal Government has failed to fulfil its subsidy obligations.

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Lawmakers oppose dollar billing for local petrol sales

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The House of Representatives has commenced moves to address mounting concerns in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, opposing the continued imposition of US dollar-denominated charges on locally refined petroleum products and announcing plans to investigate alleged irregularities in the allocation of fuel import licences.

The House Committee on Petroleum Resources (Downstream) disclosed this on Tuesday during an interactive session with key industry stakeholders, including the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, the Depot and Petroleum Products Marketers Association of Nigeria, and the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria.

The engagement forms part of the committee’s ongoing consultations on proposed amendments to the Petroleum Industry Act and broader reforms aimed at strengthening domestic refining, guaranteeing national energy security and ensuring a competitive downstream petroleum market.

The Chairman of the committee, Ikenga Ugochinyere, said the lawmakers would invite the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, the Nigerian Ports Authority, the Central Bank of Nigeria, refiners and other relevant agencies to respond to issues raised by industry operators.

“We’ll be meeting with the NMDPRA, NUPRC, the refiners—both modular refinery owners and the large refinery operators—as well as the NPA, the CBN and other relevant agencies on the issues that have been raised. These will form part of our downstream reforms, including proposed amendments to the Petroleum Industry Act and legislative motions to correct identified gaps,” Ugochinyere said.

The lawmaker expressed concern over the continued charging of port fees in U.S. dollars for petroleum products refined and transported within Nigeria, describing the practice as detrimental to the economy.

“We have taken special note of the issue of dollar-denominated charges by the Nigerian Ports Authority. It is not good for the economy that, at a time like this, people involved in domestic downstream activities are still being charged in dollars. That ultimately affects the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit,” he said.

Ugochinyere also pledged to investigate allegations that fuel import licences for the first three quarters of 2026 were issued to the same group of marketers.

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“We have also taken note of what you said about the lopsidedness in the issuance of import licences, where allocations for the first, second and third quarters went to the same set of operators. We will raise these questions when the NMDPRA appears before the committee to explain the criteria used in issuing those licences,” he added.

The committee chairman stressed the need to strike a balance between protecting Nigeria’s expanding domestic refining capacity and preserving the investments of marketers who have built storage and distribution infrastructure over several decades.

“How do we encourage and protect owners of domestic refineries while also protecting the investments of marketers? We cannot continue importing the same volume of petroleum products as before, given that more refineries are coming on stream. At the same time, we must guarantee national energy security in case local refineries experience disruptions.

“We need a balanced framework that supports domestic refining, preserves healthy competition and ensures the country always has a reliable fuel supply. That is the direction this committee is pursuing,” he said.

Presenting DAPPMAN’s memorandum, the association’s Executive Secretary, Mr Olufemi Adewole, urged lawmakers to address what he described as structural distortions affecting petroleum marketers and depot operators.

According to him, at least 72 of Nigeria’s 154 licensed petroleum depots recorded little or no trading activity over the past year because of what he described as an uneven operating environment.

“From the records of the NMDPRA, not fewer than 72 of the 154 depots nationwide had no regular or consistent trading activity in the last one year. They are merely paying salaries without engaging in meaningful business. This is largely due to an uneven playing field, persistent trading losses and the inability to access alternative sources of supply,” he said.

While welcoming the commencement of operations at the Dangote Refinery, Adewole warned against what he described as a near-monopoly in the supply of PMS.

“Our experience has been one of mixed feelings, bordering on an almost total monopoly in the supply of PMS by the mega refinery. Although the Petroleum Industry Act provides for a fully deregulated market where prices are determined by market forces, that has not been our experience,” he said.

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The association also accused the NMDPRA of allocating import permits repeatedly to the same group of marketers. “The same set of marketers received import allocations in the first, second and third quarters of 2026, as though other qualified operators do not exist. This is unacceptable, and we urge this committee to ensure greater transparency and fairness in future allocations,” Adewole said.

DAPPMAN argued that retaining the option of fuel imports remains necessary to prevent shortages during refinery maintenance, operational disruptions or logistics challenges.

“In order to avoid the return of fuel queues, the import option provided under the Petroleum Industry Act must remain available as a regulated contingency mechanism whenever domestic supply is insufficient,” he said.

The association also decried what it described as duplicated port charges and the continued billing of domestic petroleum transactions in foreign currency.

“Marketers are invoiced at the loading point and again at the discharge port for products moved entirely within Nigeria. More critically, certain charges are still imposed in US dollars despite the purely domestic nature of these transactions. This practice persists despite a presidential directive suspending foreign currency-denominated billing for local operations. We urge the committee to ensure compliance,” Adewole added.

DAPPMAN further called for accelerated dredging of major waterways, rehabilitation of pipelines and depots, improved rail transportation for petroleum products and the creation of a national downstream logistics master plan.

IPMAN National President, Abubakar Shettima, commended the Federal Government for encouraging private investment in refining but said marketers continue to grapple with high financing costs, multiple taxation, foreign exchange volatility, inadequate storage infrastructure and limited access to refinery products.

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He called for policies that would support domestic refining while preserving competition. “We support strengthening domestic refining, but we also need equitable access to locally refined petroleum products, affordable financing and reduced regulatory costs that ultimately increase pump prices,” he said.

Shettima proposed the establishment of a specialised Petroleum Bank to provide single-digit interest loans to operators. “Today, marketers borrow from commercial banks at interest rates of up to 32 per cent. Those costs are eventually passed on to consumers. We are proposing a Petroleum Bank that will provide single-digit interest loans, similar to what exists in the agriculture and industrial sectors,” he said.

He also urged multinational oil companies involved in fuel importation to invest in local refining. “Before now, we depended almost entirely on imported petroleum products. Today, Nigeria is exporting refined products. Multinational companies should invest in domestic refineries to complement the existing capacity rather than relying solely on imports,” he added.

On the future of Nigeria’s state-owned refineries, Shettima suggested that independent marketers be allowed to participate in their management.

“If independent marketers are allowed to participate in operating the government refineries, we believe we can contribute significantly to their revival. We have done it before. Independent marketers invested in what is today NIPCO, which has become one of Nigeria’s leading petroleum marketing companies,” he said.

The committee’s consultations come as Nigeria seeks to consolidate gains from recent reforms in the downstream petroleum sector following the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act and the expansion of domestic refining capacity.

Lawmakers are expected to engage regulators, refiners, NNPC Limited and other stakeholders before proposing legislative measures aimed at creating a more competitive, transparent and sustainable petroleum market while safeguarding the country’s long-term energy security.

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Nigeria tops Africa in petrol price surge during US-Iran war

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Nigeria recorded the sharpest increase in petrol price across Africa during the first half of 2026, with pump prices surging by 39.5 per cent as the Middle East conflict disrupted global crude oil supplies and exposed the country’s vulnerability to external market shocks despite growing domestic refining capacity.

The disclosure was contained in the Nigeria Half-Year Downstream Industry Report (January–June 2026) released on Tuesday by the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria.

According to the report, the conflict involving Israel, Iran and the United States, which began on February 28, 2026, triggered widespread uncertainty in global oil markets, sending crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and sharply increasing the cost of transporting petroleum products worldwide.

The report explained that the temporary disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz forced oil tankers to abandon the traditional route and sail around the Cape of Good Hope, more than doubling voyage time from about 18 days to nearly 40 days.

MEMAN stated, “During the first half of 2026, severe geopolitical tensions in the Middle East sparked immediate supply anxieties, injecting a heavy risk premium that drove international crude benchmarks past $100/bbl.

“This price surge was quickly compounded as the conflict bottlenecked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, forcing maritime oil tankers to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope and stretching what is typically an 18-day voyage into a nearly 40-day journey.”

The association said Nigeria’s deregulated petrol market transmitted the global price shock directly to consumers, making the country the hardest hit in Africa.

It said, “Operating under a newly deregulated system, Nigeria experienced an immediate price transmission at the pumps. Data from the height of the crisis revealed that Nigeria recorded a 39.5 per cent gasoline price surge, the sharpest increase across Africa, more than doubling the price jumps seen in regional peers like Egypt (14.3 per cent).”

Despite the sharp rise in prices, the report said the period also marked a significant turning point in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum industry as local refining displaced imported fuel at an unprecedented pace.

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According to MEMAN, the expansion of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery significantly reduced Nigeria’s dependence on imported Premium Motor Spirit.

The report stated, “Against the backdrop of this intense price shock, the downstream sector achieved a significant structural shift away from import dependence toward domestic refinery supply, driven primarily by the operational scale-up of the Dangote Refinery, which by the review period accounted for the majority of local PMS supply.”

It added, “Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) local refining share expanded from 38.9 per cent in 2025 to 81.7 per cent over the review period. Concurrently, local units met an average of 64 per cent of diesel demand, while domestic gas processing facilities captured 90.5 per cent of the cooking gas market.”

However, the association warned that increased domestic refining had yet to eliminate Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products. According to the report, local refinery production remained below national demand during critical periods between February and April, forcing regulators to approve fuel imports to prevent shortages.

MEMAN said, “However, the charts also highlight that domestic production alone was still structurally unable to fully bridge national demand, especially during peak periods. This supply-to-consumption deficit became visually evident between February and April, when the national consumption curve systematically crossed above domestic refinery output lines.”

It added, “To prevent severe product stockouts and stabilize the grid, the regulatory framework actively intervened by issuing refined product import licenses to selected marketers, a hybrid supply approach that successfully buffered fuel security during the worst of the international logistical shocks.”

The report further revealed that marketers drastically reduced fuel inventories because of soaring replacement costs, leading to a sharp decline in Nigeria’s strategic fuel reserves.

According to MEMAN, “The high-cost, volatile open-market environment forced aggressive realignments in inventory management across the value chain, as marketers optimized liquidity by drawing down physical buffers rather than holding expensive static wet stocks.”

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It added, “This structural shift caused national PMS stock sufficiency to drop progressively from 33 days in January to a low of 16 days by May, falling drastically short of the statutory 30-day safety benchmark, before recovering to roughly 20 days in June as licensed imports began filtering into the system.”

The marketers warned that the rapid depletion of fuel reserves highlighted the need for government-backed strategic petroleum reserves to cushion future global supply disruptions.

The report stated, “The rapid depletion of refined sufficiency days during the global shipping crisis underscored Nigeria’s lack of a resilient buffer, prioritizing the urgent downstream requirement to establish robust, state-backed Strategic Product Reserves and a dedicated Crude Oil Feedstock Reserve to insulate domestic refineries and consumers from sudden external supply chain closures.”

MEMAN also disclosed that persistently high fuel prices forced consumers to cut back on fuel purchases. It stated, “Furthermore, sustained open-market pricing triggered strong consumer demand elasticity, reducing average daily consumption by 22.3 per cent for PMS and 17.5 per cent for AGO.”

The association maintained that while Nigeria’s downstream reforms were beginning to yield results through higher domestic refining capacity, effective regulation would remain essential to sustain competition and protect consumers.

It added, “As domestic refining expands and the downstream sector evolves, sustained regulatory vigilance will remain essential to fostering fair competition, protecting consumers, strengthening investor confidence, and ensuring that the benefits of ongoing reforms are realised across the entire petroleum value chain.”

Under a section titled “Impact of the Middle East Conflict – Strait of Hormuz,” MEMAN said the conflict fundamentally altered global petroleum trade routes after the strategic waterway became temporarily inaccessible.

The report explained that suppliers increasingly shifted cargoes from the Persian Gulf to the U.S. Gulf Coast and West Africa as shipping companies sought safer alternative routes.

According to MEMAN, “The start of the conflict in the Middle East on 28th February 2026 and the subsequent temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz significantly reshaped global crude oil and petroleum product trade flows during the first half of the year. Under normal market conditions, the Gulf serves as the primary export hub for refined petroleum products moving to Europe, Asia and parts of Africa.”

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It continued, “However, with access through the Strait severely restricted, cargoes were rerouted to alternative supply sources, particularly from the U.S. Gulf Coast and West Africa. The longer sailing distances, coupled with higher freight and insurance costs, increased delivered product costs and placed additional pressure on global shipping capacity.”

MEMAN further stated, “Under normal conditions, some Gulf-origin cargoes could reach key Asian markets in approximately 18 days via the Strait of Hormuz; however, rerouting around longer alternative routes extended voyage times to nearly 40 days, significantly delaying supply flows and increasing logistical costs. The disruptions reinforced the importance of diversified refining centers and demonstrated the growing strategic role of Atlantic Basin suppliers in maintaining global product availability during supply shocks.”

The first half of 2026 was one of the most volatile periods for Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector since the full deregulation of the petrol market. Pump prices became fully responsive to movements in international crude oil prices, foreign exchange fluctuations, freight costs and supply chain disruptions following the removal of petrol subsidies.

Although the operational expansion of the 700,000-barrels-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery substantially reduced Nigeria’s reliance on imported petrol during the review period, local refining capacity was still insufficient to meet peak national demand, prompting the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority to approve imports by selected marketers to maintain energy security.

The report underscores the opportunities and challenges of Nigeria’s transition to a market-driven downstream sector, where increased domestic refining has strengthened supply resilience but global geopolitical events continue to exert a significant influence on domestic fuel prices.

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Dangote to donate one-third of wealth to charity, daughter reveals

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Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, plans to donate one-third of his wealth to charity as part of his succession plan, his daughter, Halima Dangote, has revealed.

Halima, a trustee of the Aliko Dangote Foundation, disclosed the arrangement in an interview with Bloomberg published on Tuesday, saying the billionaire had secured his family’s support to dedicate 33 per cent of his estate to philanthropy.

According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Dangote’s net worth is estimated at $35.1 billion, meaning one-third of his current fortune would amount to about $11.7 billion if maintained at that level.

Explaining the decision, Halima said her father considers philanthropy central to his legacy and has embedded it into the family’s long-term succession plans.

“He sort of put all the structure in place whereby we focus a lot on health and education. He actually donated 25 per cent to the foundation. If you look at it, it is what we call in Sharia Code in Islam; it means he has donated 33 per cent of his whole inheritance to his foundation,” she said.

“That is how important it is to him because philanthropy needs to be in existence generation after generation.

“So giving back is part and parcel of what we do. We believe we’re here, that our business is successful because of the giving back and because of the philanthropic aspect. That is why the 33 per cent is important.

“And that is why he made an announcement and he asked myself, my two sisters and his mother to sign under that will that he is able to give that 33 per cent to humanity.”

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The planned donation builds on Dangote’s existing philanthropic work through the Aliko Dangote Foundation, established in 1994.

According to Halima, the foundation was endowed with $1.25 billion about a decade ago and has since received an additional $700 million in funding.

She said about 70 per cent of the foundation’s spending is directed to Nigeria, while 20 per cent supports projects across Africa and the remainder funds initiatives in other parts of the world.

The foundation’s interventions span health, education, nutrition and humanitarian relief, and include partnerships with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and state governments in northern Nigeria that contributed to the eradication of wild poliovirus in Africa.

Dangote’s planned charitable commitment comes amid growing global attention on billionaire philanthropy. While the proposed 33 per cent allocation falls short of the 50 per cent threshold commonly associated with the Giving Pledge, it would rank among the largest philanthropic commitments ever announced by an African billionaire.

Earlier this year, TIME magazine named Dangote among the world’s most influential philanthropists in its inaugural TIME100 Philanthropy list, recognising his charitable work through the Aliko Dangote Foundation, which spends more than ₦50 billion annually on programmes across Africa.

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