Despite nearly three years of sweeping economic reforms by the Federal Government, about 79 per cent of Nigerians remain poor or vulnerable to falling into poverty, highlighting the country’s deepening social and economic challenges, new World Bank documents obtained by The PUNCH have shown.
The findings are contained in the World Bank’s newly approved Country Partnership Framework for Nigeria, covering 2026 to 2032, and its accompanying Streamlined Country Diagnostic. The seven-year strategy seeks to support Nigeria’s ambition to create more and better jobs through private-sector-led growth while accelerating poverty reduction.
According to the Streamlined Country Diagnostic document, “Thirty-three per cent of its population is ultra-poor (food insecure by age-weighted caloric intake), 61 per cent is below the poverty line, and 79 per cent is near poor (below the poverty line or vulnerable to falling back into poverty).”
The documents indicate that while recent macroeconomic reforms have helped stabilise the economy and restore investor confidence, the benefits have yet to translate into meaningful improvements in living standards for most Nigerians.
The World Bank noted that Nigeria’s economic performance over the past decade had been constrained by structural rigidities, policy missteps, dependence on crude oil, and repeated external shocks, leaving millions trapped in poverty.
It stated that about 139 million Nigerians currently live below the national poverty line, with poverty concentrated largely in the northern part of the country. The report also noted that more than 86 million Nigerians remain without electricity, while three to four million young people enter the labour market every year with limited employment opportunities.
The Bank said, “Despite recent bold reforms stabilising the economy and laying the groundwork for the Renewed Hope Agenda, significant structural challenges remain.”
It added that sustaining macro-fiscal and structural reforms would be critical to reducing inflation, expanding fiscal space and ensuring that recent economic stabilisation translates into improved living standards.
The reports reviewed reforms introduced by the Bola Tinubu administration, including the removal of petrol subsidy, exchange rate liberalisation, tighter monetary policy and tax reforms.
According to the Bank, the reforms have begun to improve macroeconomic indicators. Economic growth increased from 3.5 per cent in the first half of 2024 to 3.9 per cent during the corresponding period of 2025, foreign reserves exceeded $42bn, fiscal deficits narrowed, and investor confidence strengthened.
However, it warned that high inflation continues to undermine household incomes. The report stated, “High inflation, though declining, continues to erode real incomes, particularly for the poor. Social protection efforts to support the most vulnerable have been slow and uneven in their rollout.”
The Bank added that although the reforms helped Nigeria avoid a more severe economic crisis, institutional weaknesses, weak policy coordination, and inadequate budget transparency continue to pose significant risks. It warned that sustained reform implementation, backed by deeper structural measures, would be required to improve Nigeria’s medium-term economic outlook.
Under the new Country Partnership Framework, the World Bank said job creation would serve as the primary pathway for reducing poverty. The report explained that international experience from countries such as India, Indonesia, and China shows that moving people into productive employment remains the most effective tool for reducing poverty.
To achieve this, the framework will prioritise labour-intensive sectors, particularly agriculture and micro, small and medium enterprises, while addressing structural deficiencies in electricity, digital infrastructure, education and healthcare.
The document stated that the strategy would support “an agile social transfer system to accelerate poverty exit and prevent backsliding during crises.” It added that interventions would focus on vulnerable regions, particularly northern Nigeria, through agriculture, livelihood support, MSME financing and measures to strengthen resilience against economic and climate shocks.
The Bank stressed that reforms alone would not significantly reduce poverty unless they generate jobs on a large scale. According to the report, one in four Nigerian youths is neither employed, in education, nor in training, while the majority of workers remain trapped in low-productivity, low-paying informal jobs.
It projected that about 60 million young Nigerians would enter the labour force over the next decade, making employment generation Nigeria’s most urgent development priority.
The World Bank also raised concerns over the country’s limited social protection coverage. According to the report, more than three out of every five Nigerians are poor, while over 60 million people are classified as ultra-poor and unable to meet minimum food requirements.
It noted that public spending on social protection represented just 0.14 per cent of Gross Domestic Product in 2021 and that only 8.5 per cent of poor Nigerians were covered by any form of social safety net. The report stated that as ongoing reforms expand fiscal space, directing more resources towards the ultra-poor would be critical to strengthening social resilience.
To address the challenge, the Bank said it would support Nigeria in building a unified, better-targeted and domestically financed social protection system. Drawing lessons from Brazil, Pakistan, Indonesia and India, the framework proposes differentiated support for the ultra-poor, poor and near-poor, alongside expansion of the national social registry, digital identity system and digital payment infrastructure.
The Bank said the strategy also seeks stronger domestic financing, improved coordination between federal and state governments, and closer integration of cash transfers with investments in nutrition, education, healthcare, and sanitation. It added that the interventions are expected to expand social protection coverage to about 41 million beneficiaries.
The diagnostic further observed that employment alone would not immediately eliminate poverty because many Nigerians who already have jobs remain poor. It stated that only about 14 per cent of employed Nigerians currently work in regular wage-paying jobs, while the majority are engaged in informal activities that generate insufficient income to escape poverty.
The report noted that social protection programmes remain heavily dependent on external financing and must be complemented by investments in education, healthcare and skills development to improve productivity and earnings.
The World Bank also linked poverty reduction to improvements in human capital. It warned that learning poverty remains widespread, with 84 per cent of children aged between five and 14 unable to read age-appropriate texts despite years of schooling.
The Bank identified household poverty as one of the major factors keeping children out of school and limiting future productivity. It also highlighted widespread childhood stunting as a major contributor to intergenerational poverty.
The framework proposes increased investments in nutrition, early childhood development, sanitation, household food security and social protection, targeting an eight-percentage-point reduction in stunting among children under five during the CPF period.
The documents also reviewed the implementation of the previous Country Partnership Framework covering 2021 to 2025. According to the Completion and Learning Review, poverty rose sharply during the period as Nigeria grappled with the COVID-19 pandemic, high inflation, fuel subsidies, exchange rate distortions and worsening insecurity.
The report stated that the poverty rate increased from about 40 per cent in 2019 to 61 per cent in 2025 despite extensive World Bank support. Although the review rated the implementation of the previous framework as “Moderately Satisfactory”, it acknowledged that inflation continued to worsen hardship across the country.
It stated, “A national cash transfer program supported by the World Bank was designed to protect the poor and vulnerable from these shocks, but rollout has been slower than anticipated.”
The review noted that about 8.1 million households had received at least one payment under the national cash transfer programme established to cushion the impact of inflation and economic reforms.
It added that another World Bank-supported resilience programme had reached more than 15 million Nigerians through social safety nets, livelihood support, food security interventions and financial assistance for businesses, including women-owned enterprises. The Bank concluded that preserving the current reform momentum while accelerating private investment, strengthening governance, and creating productive jobs would determine whether Nigeria succeeds in lifting millions of people out of poverty.
According to the Completion and Learning Review, safeguarding and deepening the reforms would be essential if the country is to reignite growth and enable the majority of Nigerians to escape poverty.
The PUNCH earlier reported that the World Bank approved a fresh $1.25bn loan for Nigeria under its Nigeria Actions for Investment and Jobs Acceleration programme, amid public concerns over the country’s rising debt burden and repeated calls for the Federal Government to reduce external borrowing.
The approval was announced in a statement issued by the World Bank alongside the launch of a new Country Partnership Framework for Nigeria covering 2026 to 2032. The bank said the new framework would guide its support for Nigeria over the next six years, with a focus on creating jobs by unlocking private sector-led growth.
“The World Bank Group has endorsed a new Country Partnership Framework for Nigeria spanning 2026–2032, setting out a strategy to create more and better jobs at scale by unlocking private sector-led growth,” the statement read.
The World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, Mathew Verghis, said the institution would focus on helping Nigeria convert recent macroeconomic gains into improved living standards.
“Our new Country Partnership Framework provides the strategy for how the World Bank Group will support Nigeria over the coming years, with a strong focus on helping to create more and better jobs, particularly by enabling private sector-led growth.
“The recent macroeconomic gains have been critical to help stabilise the economy. Translating improved macroeconomic conditions into better living standards will require addressing the structural constraints to spur private sector investment and job creation,” he said.
The Bank concluded that preserving the current reform momentum while accelerating private investment, strengthening governance, and creating productive jobs would determine whether Nigeria succeeds in lifting millions of people out of poverty.
According to the Completion and Learning Review, safeguarding and deepening the reforms would be essential if the country is to reignite growth and enable the majority of Nigerians to escape poverty.
The PUNCH earlier reported that the World Bank approved a fresh $1.25bn loan for Nigeria under its Nigeria Actions for Investment and Jobs Acceleration programme, amid public concerns over the country’s rising debt burden and repeated calls for the Federal Government to reduce external borrowing.
The approval was announced in a statement issued by the World Bank alongside the launch of a new Country Partnership Framework for Nigeria covering 2026 to 2032. The bank said the new framework would guide its support for Nigeria over the next six years, with a focus on creating jobs by unlocking private sector-led growth.
“The World Bank Group has endorsed a new Country Partnership Framework for Nigeria spanning 2026–2032, setting out a strategy to create more and better jobs at scale by unlocking private sector-led growth,” the statement read.
The World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, Mathew Verghis, said the institution would focus on helping Nigeria convert recent macroeconomic gains into improved living standards.
“Our new Country Partnership Framework provides the strategy for how the World Bank Group will support Nigeria over the coming years, with a strong focus on helping to create more and better jobs, particularly by enabling private sector-led growth.
“The recent macroeconomic gains have been critical to help stabilise the economy. Translating improved macroeconomic conditions into better living standards will require addressing the structural constraints to spur private sector investment and job creation,” he said.
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