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FG securities deliver positive real returns to investors

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Nigeria’s fixed-income market is offering investors something that has been scarce in recent years – real returns that outpace the inflation rate.

When investment returns beat the inflation rate, investors gain, as the value of their money grows in purchasing power terms, not just in nominal value. This is exactly what the Federal Government bonds and treasury bills now offer investors.

Headline inflation fell to 15.91 per cent in June 2026 from 15.93 per cent in May, halting three straight months of increases, according to the National Bureau of Statistics showed.

The slight decline has been enough to push the yields on some government debt instruments above the inflation rate, allowing investors to preserve and grow their purchasing power after a long period of negative real returns.

The improvement, however, has not extended to all products. The latest FGN Savings Bond, targeted mainly at retail investors, still offers a maximum coupon of 15.716 per cent, leaving it marginally below the prevailing inflation rate.

But higher sovereign borrowing costs have largely driven the return to positive real yields. At the June FGN bond auction, the January 2035 and April 2037 bonds cleared at marginal rates of 18.34 per cent and 18.35 per cent, translating to positive real returns of roughly 244 basis points above June’s inflation rate.

Likewise, the 364-day treasury bill sold at the 15 July auction recorded a stop rate of 17.66 per cent, still remaining ahead of inflation.

There is a stronger investor appetite as market participants reposition their portfolios.

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Treasury bill turnover increased 137.49 per cent to N1.51tn, while FGN bond turnover climbed 75.91 per cent to N1.20tn in the week ended 19 June, reflecting stronger trading activity across the sovereign debt market.

“Positive real returns make treasury bills and government bonds attractive again because investors are rewarded in real, inflation-adjusted terms,” said an emerging markets expert, Ike Ibeabuchi.

The Financial Markets Dealers Association said pricing in the domestic fixed-income market continues to be shaped by inflation expectations and liquidity conditions, even as several major central banks around the world begin shifting towards monetary policy easing.

Analysts, however, caution that the current period of attractive inflation-adjusted returns may be temporary. A former central banker, Chukwunonso Iheoma, estimates the Monetary Policy Rate to fall to 25.5 per cent by the last quarter of 2025.

Standard Chartered, on the other hand, expects the MPR to decline to 25 per cent by the end of 2026. Chief economist, Razia Khan, said the bank now sees room for 150 basis points of monetary easing this year. An Abuja-based fixed income analyst, Joshua Tan, agreed with Khan, but stressed that impending higher energy prices could kibosh positive expectations about lower inflation and interest rate cuts this year.

Cowry Research expects the Monetary Policy Committee to retain its cautious stance at its July meeting but believes sustained moderation in inflation could open the door to the first interest rate cut in September.

But S&P Global warned that rising energy prices could erode the positive real returns currently available on government securities: “Increases in fuel costs as a result of the war in the Middle East have driven up costs among sub-Saharan African companies, putting upwards pressure on inflation and likely bringing to an end cycle of interest rate easing seen in a number of economies in the region.”

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A Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the University of Uyo, Prof Akpan Ekpo, noted that the MPC would likely maintain the current rate because of the uncertainty created by the US-Iran conflict.

According to GTI Limited, Treasury bills, particularly the 364-day instruments, currently provide the strongest mix of yield, liquidity and inflation protection. In contrast, FGN Savings Bonds remain slightly below inflation, highlighting the widening gap between institutional fixed-income instruments and retail-focused savings products.

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NAFDAC destroys N8bn products, targets sachet alcohol in N’Central

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The National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC) has confiscated and destroyed unwholesome, banned, fake and adulterated products worth more than N8 billion in the North-Central states.

Speaking during the destruction ceremony on Thursday in Lafia, the Nasarawa State capital, the Director-General of NAFDAC, Prof. Mojisola Adeyeye, said the products were seized from manufacturing outfits, sales outlets, markets and motor parks across the zone.

The DG, who was represented by a Deputy Director of NAFDAC in the zone, Joseph Edor, said most of the confiscated products were banned alcoholic beverages in small volumes of less than 200 ml (20 cl).

According to her, NAFDAC was established by Decree No. 19 of 1993, as amended, with the mandate to protect and promote public health by ensuring that only quality, efficacious and regulated products are manufactured, imported, distributed and sold in Nigeria.

She explained that the agency banned alcoholic beverages in sachets and glass bottles of less than 200ml due to their availability, affordability and portability, which have made them easily abused by youths and underage schoolchildren.

“Research has shown that early exposure to alcohol affects the brain and other vital organs such as the liver and kidneys.

“It stymies the brain, resulting in mental retardation, brain damage, poor performance of pupils in school, low productivity and several types of illnesses,” she said.

The DG said the ban and subsequent raids were based on these abuses, addiction and adverse health effects, while other seized items included expired, fake and unwholesome food, drugs and cosmetics.

“It is in the course of carrying out these activities that this heap of unwholesome, banned, fake and adulterated products worth about eight billion naira was confiscated from manufacturing outfits, sales outlets, markets and motor parks.

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“The bulk of the products in that pile are predominantly banned alcoholic beverages in low volumes of less than 200ml (20cl),” she emphasised.

The Director-General further commended other law enforcement agencies, sister agencies and stakeholders for their continuous collaboration, especially in intelligence sharing and security cover during operations.

Also speaking at the event, the Nasarawa State Coordinator of NAFDAC, Dr Gyani Stephen, explained that the exercise was not targeted at hurting people but was intended to save lives.

He advised those in the habit of selling fake and banned products to desist or be ready to face the full wrath of the law, warning that the agency would come after them if they did not change their ways.

In his goodwill message, the Nasarawa State Commander of the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency, Daniel Saidu, represented by Yakubu Awoh, commended NAFDAC for saving lives through the regular seizure and destruction of expired and fake drugs.

He explained that if these dangerous products were allowed into the markets, they could have destroyed millions of lives and affected the mental health of many others.

Source: punchng.com

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Seven modular refineries to begin operations in 2027, read details

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Nigeria’s modular refining sector is expected to expand next year, with seven new refineries projected to commence operations with a combined capacity of 83,000 barrels per day, according to Argus Media’s George Maher-Bonnett.

Maher-Bonnett disclosed this in Lagos on Wednesday during a presentation at the OTL Africa Downstream conference, where he highlighted the changing dynamics of Nigeria’s petroleum products market amid rising local refining capacity and declining fuel demand.

In his presentation, titled ‘African Energy Outlook’, Maher-Bonnett said four modular refineries operated in Nigeria in September, with a combined capacity of 32,000 barrels per day.

“Four modular refineries operating in September, total 32,000 b/d capacity,” he said.

He added, “Seven new modular refineries to start next year“ with a total of 83,000 barrels per capacity.

The projected additions would represent more than two and a half times the combined capacity of the four modular refineries operating in September, potentially increasing the contribution of smaller refining facilities to Nigeria’s domestic petroleum products supply.

However, the presentation did not identify the seven proposed refineries, their owners or locations, or provide individual capacity figures and commissioning schedules.

Maher-Bonnett also highlighted the growing role of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in improving Nigeria’s self-sufficiency in petroleum products, despite a decline in fuel demand during the year.

“Nigerian fuels demand is down this year,” the presentation stated, attributing the development to “higher flat prices.”

He added self-sufficiency is improving with Dangote ramp-up, projecting that modular refineries would play a growing role.

The presentation linked the decline in demand to higher prices and noted that the only government intervention during the period covered was an NNPC price reduction.

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“No government interventions, besides NNPC price cut this month,” it stated.

The expected expansion of modular refining capacity comes as Nigeria’s petroleum products market adjusts to increased domestic production and changing international trade flows.

Maher-Bonnett said the Dangote refinery is operating at a high rate, with steady petrol output, reducing the attractiveness of importing some petroleum products from Europe into West Africa.

“Dangote’s 700,000 bpd Lekki refinery is running hard, gasoline output is steady,” the presentation stated.

It also highlighted Ghana’s growing refining capacity, noting that the 45,000-barrel-per-day Tema refinery is ramping up production and improving the country’s self-sufficiency.

According to the presentation, the economics of shipping petroleum products from Europe to West Africa and from Europe to the United States has weakened, with freight costs further affecting the competitiveness of the routes.

Source: punchng.com

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Falana tasks Senate on recovery of $123bn, N66bn oil funds, read details

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Human rights lawyer, Femi Falana, has asked the National Assembly to compel the recovery of $123.17bn in alleged outstanding oil royalties, taxes and dividends, alongside N66.4bn, from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and other oil and gas companies.

In a letter dated 28 October, 2026, and titled ‘Request to Recover Dividends, Taxes and Royalties Worth $123.17bn and N66.4bn from NNPC and Other Companies and Remit Same to the Federation Account’, Falana urged the National Assembly to ensure that the alleged outstanding revenues were recovered and remitted to the federation account.

He warned that he would institute legal proceedings at the Federal High Court if the authorities failed to initiate measures to recover the funds within 14 days of receiving the letter.

In an acknowledged copy of the letter made available to The PUNCH on Thursday, the senior advocate said the outstanding revenues covered several categories, including $62bn in unpaid oil royalties, $23.1bn in alleged unremitted dividends from Nigeria LNG Limited, $6.071bn in outstanding industry revenues, and claims relating to stolen crude oil and refinery rehabilitation contracts.

The letter also cited a Supreme Court consent judgment delivered on 20 October, 2018, which it said directed the Federal Government to collect outstanding royalties accrued over 18 years under the Deep Offshore and Inland Basin Production Sharing Contracts Act.

According to Falana, the governments of Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa and Rivers states had approached the Supreme Court to compel the Federal Government to enforce the law, which provided for an upward review of royalties when international crude oil prices exceeded $20 per barrel.

He said a committee constituted by the Office of the Attorney-General of the Federation subsequently determined that $62bn in royalties had not been collected from international oil companies.

Falana added that Akwa Ibom and Rivers states later obtained a Federal High Court judgment for a combined $3.3bn, while Bayelsa State secured a separate judgment for $951m over their alleged entitlements from the outstanding royalties.

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He said the Federal Government had yet to comply with the judgments.

The lawyer also called for the recovery of $29bn linked to alleged crude oil theft and undeclared exports, citing investigations by the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency and the House of Representatives.

He said lawyers engaged by NIMASA discovered that about 60.2 million barrels of crude oil, valued at $12.7bn, allegedly stolen from Nigeria, were discharged at the Port of Philadelphia in the United States between 2011 and 2014.

According to the letter, the lawyers submitted their findings to the Office of the Attorney-General after which they filed nine civil cases at the Federal High Court in Abuja and Lagos to recover the value of the alleged stolen crude oil and liquefied gas.

Falana further cited a 2016 House of Representatives ad hoc committee investigation, which he said found that $17bn worth of crude oil and liquefied natural gas had been exported from Nigeria without proper records.

He said the committee found that the crude oil was discharged at the ports of Houston and Lake Charles in the United States.

He urged the National Assembly to direct the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission to pursue the recovery of the funds from the companies allegedly involved.

On the NLNG dividends, Falana alleged that NNPC had failed to remit $23.1bn due to the Federal Government from its 49 per cent shareholding in NLNG.

He explained that NLNG, established in 1989, had paid more than $47bn in dividends to its shareholders over 26 years, with the Federal Government’s share paid through NNPC.

The other shareholders listed in the letter are Shell, with 25.6 per cent; TotalEnergies, 15 per cent; and Eni International, 10.4 per cent.

Falana argued that the dividends received by NNPC on behalf of the Federal Government should have been transferred to the Federation Account in accordance with Section 162 of the 1999 Constitution, as amended.

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He added that resolutions of the Senate and the House of Representatives calling for the remittance of the funds had allegedly been ignored.

The senior advocate also called for the recovery of $6.071bn and N66.4bn in outstanding revenues owed by oil and gas companies, citing the Nigerian Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative’s 2022/2023 Independent Oil and Gas Industry Report.

According to him, NEITI disclosed on 27 September, 2024, that the outstanding collectible revenues due to the Federal Government as of June 2024 stood at the stated amounts.

He said copies of the report were forwarded to both chambers of the National Assembly in November 2024 in line with the provisions of the NEITI Act.

Falana urged lawmakers to support NEITI in recovering the outstanding revenues without further delay.

The letter also questioned the outcome of the rehabilitation of the Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna refineries, for which the Federal Executive Council approved contracts totalling about $2.98bn in 2021.

It said the government approved $1.5bn for the rehabilitation of the Port Harcourt refineries in April 2021 and another $1.48bn for the Warri and Kaduna refineries in August of the same year.

Falana argued that NNPC announced in December 2024 that the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries had been substantially completed, while work on the Kaduna refinery was almost finished.

However, he cited NNPC’s subsequent announcement that the Warri refinery ceased operations on 25 January, 2025, following safety issues involving its crude distillation unit main heater. He also referred to the shutdown of the Port Harcourt refineries for planned maintenance in May 2025.

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He argued that the contractors had breached the terms of the rehabilitation agreements and called for the recovery of the contract sums.

“In view of the foregoing, we are compelled to request the Office of the Attorney-General to recover the total sum of $123.17bn and N66.4bn owed the Government of the Federation by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited, and some oil and gas companies operating in Nigeria,” the letter stated.

Falana said recovering the funds would reduce the Federal Government’s dependence on external borrowing and provide additional revenue for the federation and the states.

He warned that failure to begin recovery measures within 14 days would prompt legal action.

“If you fail to initiate legal measures for the recovery of the aforesaid huge funds belonging to the Government of the Federation within 14 days of the receipt of this letter, we shall not hesitate to file the necessary processes in the Federal High Court with a view to compelling you to discharge the duty of your office,” he wrote.

Falana also defended his firm’s standing to pursue the matter, citing its involvement in drafting and submitting a bill to amend the Deep Offshore and Inland Basin Production Sharing Contracts Act in 2017.

He noted that the bill was adopted and sponsored by a senator, subsequently passing first reading in the Senate before the dissolution of the Eighth National Assembly. According to him, the Ninth National Assembly subsequently adopted and passed the amendment.

He recalled that the then President of the Senate, Ahmad Lawan, had said the amendment would increase the country’s revenue by at least $1.5bn annually.

Source: punchng.com

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