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On food price crash, farmers fault FG’s order as agro-imports hit N2.2tn

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Nigeria’s agricultural import bill soared to N2.22tn in the first half of 2025, drawing strong criticism from farmers, rice millers, and stakeholders who argue that the Federal Government’s policies are undermining local production and worsening food insecurity.

The stakeholders also criticised the recent order by President Bola Tinubu to reduce food prices. On September 11, 2025, it was reported that Tinubu ordered a Federal Executive Council committee to further crash the prices of food items across the country.

The Minister of State for Agriculture and Food Security, Sabi Abdullahi, stated this in Abuja, while presenting a paper at a one-day capacity-building workshop for journalists covering the Senate. He said the President’s order would be enforced to further crash prices of food items by ensuring the safe passage of products through various routes across the country.

“I can say it on good authority to you that the President has given a matching order to a Federal Executive Council committee already handling it. On how we are going to promote the safe passage of agricultural foods and commodities across our various routes in the country.

“We are aware, and I’m sure, as media, you are also aware, there are routes through which commodities are taken before they are delivered. If you know the amount of money that is being spent, you can now understand why those commodities have to be expensive at the point of delivery. So, we are working very hard, and we are doing quite a lot. But I’ve just given you a snippet because I’m here, and I felt we should look at that,” Abdullahi had stated.

But this Presidential directive has sparked criticism from farmers and rice millers, who argue that mere pronouncements cannot override market forces or compensate for poor planning.

“The cost of food will go down if transport costs go down, but that alone is not enough,” the National President of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria, Kabir Ibrahim, explained. “Our farmers are complaining that the prices are so low that they cannot buy fertiliser. The importation has dealt with our farmers.”

Rice millers push back

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Chairman of the Competitive African Rice Forum, Peter Dama, faulted the government’s approach, saying it risks alienating private operators and discouraging investment. “The President is dealing with private organisations and companies. You don’t just come out and give an order to crash prices. It doesn’t work that way”.

“At best, the government should have called stakeholders in the transport and agric sectors, discussed with them, and provided subsidies.

Pronouncements without engagement will not work.”

Dama warned that persistent importation and lack of subsidies were forcing many farmers to abandon agriculture. “If you don’t provide inputs and only make pronouncements, farmers will quit. We are not in an autocratic government. Stakeholders must be carried along.”

Tractors still undistributed

Beyond importation and price directives, stakeholders also pointed to delays in mechanisation efforts. In July 2024, the government launched 2,000 tractors to support farmers, but more than a year later, none have been distributed.

Ibrahim said farmers were growing impatient. “The tractors have not been distributed yet. They were launched in July, but up to now, no modalities have been given. We need them to support human labour with machine power.”

An official in the Ministry of Agriculture, who asked not to be named due to the lack of authorisation to speak on the matter, confirmed that modalities for distribution were awaiting presidential approval.

“We are waiting for the presidency. The minister has submitted a distribution list for approval. We expect to flag it off soon. But people must understand that such directives take time because they involve trade, finance, customs, and investment ministries. A technical committee will be set up to address stakeholders’ concerns.”

Purchasing power concern

While the government insists that food price crashes will take time, stakeholders maintain that weak purchasing power remains the biggest obstacle.

Ibrahim stressed, “What we are telling the government is that it is the purchasing power of the Naira that is causing problems. Even if food prices fall, people don’t have the money to buy. That’s why you are not seeing any impact.”

His view was echoed by other stakeholders, who warned that without urgent subsidies for inputs and stronger consumer purchasing power, Nigeria risks deepening its food insecurity.

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N2.22tn agric imports

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed that agricultural imports stood at N1.04tn in the first quarter of 2025, before climbing to N1.18tn in the second quarter. The second quarter figure represented a 32.6 per cent year-on-year increase from N893.25bn recorded in Q2 2024, and a 14.35 per cent rise from Q1 2025.

Comparatively, the value of agricultural imports in the first half of 2024 was N1.81tn, indicating a 22.65 per cent rise within one year. Despite this surge, food prices remain high, and farmers say government interventions have created distortions that leave both producers and consumers worse off.

The sharp rise in imports followed the Federal Government’s introduction of a 180-day duty-free window in July 2024, which allowed licensed millers and firms with backward integration programmes to import staple foods such as maize, husked brown rice, wheat, beans, and millet without paying duties, tariffs, or related taxes.

The policy, designed by President Bola Tinubu’s administration as a stopgap measure against worsening food inflation, ended in December 2024. While the government said it aimed to crash food prices, stakeholders insist the initiative failed to deliver relief.

AFAN president, Ibrahim, argued that the waiver policy only triggered massive importation without addressing Nigerians’ weakened purchasing power. “There must be a rise in imports because there was a 180-day duty-free window. People rushed to import food, but Nigerians have no money to buy it. Even though prices are going down, purchasing power is low, and that is the reality,” Ibrahim said.

According to him, the unsold food glut now affects both government silos and private warehouses. “Government itself is left with food in silos. They bought rice and paddies, but are they selling? Unless we fix systemic issues in customs, transport, and governance, we cannot get results.”

The fallout from duty-free importation has hit local farmers hard. Ibrahim noted that maize, which once sold for about N60,000 per tonne before the duty-free policy, now goes for about N30,000, leaving farmers unable to recover input costs. “Our farmers are not happy; they are not even back to their farms now because maize prices have collapsed. They cannot buy fertiliser, and the effect is adverse,” he said.

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National Secretary of the Small-Scale Women Farmers Organisation in Nigeria, Chinasa Asonye, highlighted how high input costs and poor-quality subsidised products have crippled production. “Fertilisers and herbicides have become unaffordable. Some of the subsidised inputs distributed were expired and caused more harm than good. Government must subsidise inputs so farmers can produce at a reasonable cost,” Asonye said.

She warned that hoarding by traders and government agencies worsened the food crisis. “Some people stored grains in silos expecting to sell when prices rise, but the reverse happened. Grains bought at N140 per kg now sell for N70, and many are running at a loss. Worse still, some imported rice sold at N48,000 has weevils and is not even edible.”

Way forward

Stakeholders agreed that piecemeal interventions—whether through duty-free waivers, directives to crash food prices, or delayed tractor distribution—cannot sustainably address Nigeria’s food crisis.

Dama cautioned, “Yes, reducing transport costs will bring some relief. But the government must also engage rice millers, farmers, and private investors. Import licences should not replace real investment in local production. If we continue like this, we will never be food-secure.”

Asonye added that small-scale farmers, especially women, face the greatest risks. “If farmers cannot break even, they will abandon production or resort to strike actions. That will deepen the food crisis.”

With agricultural imports climbing to N2.22tn in just six months and local farmers struggling with input costs, storage challenges, and poor purchasing power, the outlook for Nigeria’s food sector remains fragile.

The government maintains that its food price crash directive, mechanisation push, and import substitution efforts will eventually ease the burden on citizens. But for farmers and millers, patience is running thin.

Unless subsidies, infrastructure support, and stakeholder consultations become central to government policy, experts warn that Nigeria’s reliance on imports will continue to rise—at the expense of local production and long-term food security.

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Nigerians spend N50bn on US visa applications

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Nigerians spent more than N50bn on US visa applications between 2023 and 2024, despite a sharp decline in approvals as Washington tightened immigration controls and increased scrutiny of applicants.

An analysis of the Intelpoint report, using data from the US Department of State, shows that 201,200 non-immigrant visas were issued to Nigerians between 2023 and 2024. At a standard application fee of $185 per applicant, Nigerians spent approximately $37.2m, equivalent to N50.7bn at an average exchange rate of N1,360 to the dollar.

Visa issuances declined by about 23 per cent, falling to 87,300 in 2024 from 113,900 in 2023, a reduction of 26,600 visas. The PUNCH could not obtain comparable figures for 2025 at the time of reporting.

Business and tourism travel dominated approvals in 2024, with B1/B2 visas accounting for 83 per cent of total issuances, while student visas (F1) represented about seven per cent. Exchange visitor visas (J1) and other temporary categories made up the remainder.

Africa’s most populous nation remained a significant source market for the United States, accounting for about 0.8 per cent of global non-immigrant visa issuances in 2024, the data showed.

Former President of the National Association of Nigeria Travel Agencies, Susan Akporiaye, said Nigerians’ travel behaviour is driven by more than economic conditions, noting a strong cultural inclination toward mobility.

“People would say it’s because of the economy, but I share a different view. Nigerians are generally migrants; they love travelling.

We are like the Chinese of Africa,” Akporiaye told The PUNCH.

The executive argued that most Nigerians who travel abroad return home, and only a small proportion remain outside the country permanently. “There is so much noise of Nigerians staying back. The ones who travel and return are far more than those who stay back. It’s not up to 10 per cent that don’t return,” she stated.

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The decline in visa issuances comes amid a series of policy changes introduced after Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, which have gradually tightened requirements for Nigerian applicants.

In July 2025, the US Department of State announced that most non-immigrant and non-diplomatic visas issued to Nigerian citizens would be restricted to single-entry permits valid for three months, with existing visas unaffected.

In August, applicants were required to disclose all social media usernames used over the previous five years on DS-160 forms, with officials warning that omissions could lead to visa denial or ineligibility.

Akporiaye also noted that travel demand cuts across income levels, from affluent individuals to ordinary citizens travelling for social events. “Nigerians like to explore. We travel for birthdays, weddings, and other ceremonies. I’m not talking about people like Dangote or Otedola, but ordinary Nigerians you don’t even know,” she said.

The expert, however, acknowledged that demand for US travel has softened relative to other destinations, citing operational and policy-related constraints.

“The demand has reduced for some destinations like the US, and it’s becoming worse now. Conditional requirements and operational changes at the US Embassy in Abuja have made access more difficult, including the consolidation of services in Lagos,” she stated.

“There are stories about visas being cancelled or Nigerians getting deported, and that makes people a bit sceptical. But other destinations are still booming.”

Further tightening followed in December 2025, when the US Mission in Nigeria said Washington expanded travel restrictions to include partial limitations on Nigeria and five other countries, effective January 1, 2026.

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An executive at Travel and Tours Limited, Maureen Chimaobi, said securing a US visa has become increasingly difficult over the past year, with many first-time applicants facing steep odds despite completing all required procedures.

“Last year, getting a US visa drastically reduced, especially if you are a first-time traveller or first-time applicant. It’s almost a no-go area,” Chimaobi told our correspondent.

She noted that applicants continue to pay visa fees, schedule appointments and attend interviews, but approvals have become far less predictable. “You pay your visa fee, book your appointment and go for submission. Most of the time, they don’t give it,” the agent said.

The trend reflects growing concerns among travel operators about declining approval rates for Nigerian applicants, even as demand for overseas travel remains strong. Chimaobi said rejection levels have remained high throughout the period under review, particularly for individuals with limited international travel history.

The tougher environment is also influencing destination choices. More Nigerians are turning to countries where visa approvals are perceived to be more attainable, provided applicants can demonstrate sufficient financial capacity and present strong documentation.

“I think most countries still offer a 70 to 80 per cent chance of getting a visa, depending on the quality of your documents and your financial status,” Chimaobi revealed.

She identified the United Kingdom as one of the destinations with relatively stronger approval prospects, although she cautioned that British authorities have also hardened their assessment processes in recent months.

France and other countries within the Schengen area, once considered more accessible to Nigerian travellers, have become increasingly selective, especially toward first-time applicants, she added.

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“Before now, France used to issue visas more easily, but most Schengen countries have become difficult over time, particularly for first-time travellers,” Chimaobi said.

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Petrol imports crash by N2tn to N87bn; see why

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Nigeria’s spending on the importation of Premium Motor Spirit, popularly known as petrol, plunged by over 96 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, marking a dramatic shift in the country’s fuel supply landscape and signaling the growing impact of local refining capacity.

Latest foreign trade statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday showed that only N87.401bn was spent on the importation of Motor Spirit Ordinary, the official trade classification for petrol, between January and March 2026.

The figure represents a sharp decline of N2.184tn, or 96.15 per cent, compared to the N2.271tn spent on petrol imports during the corresponding period of 2025. The development is particularly significant as petrol, which had consistently ranked among Nigeria’s most imported commodities for years, was completely absent from the list of the country’s top traded products in the first quarter of 2026.

An analysis of the NBS data by our correspondent showed that petrol did not feature among the top 19 traded products with the rest of the world, Africa, or West Africa during the review period.

Instead, the leading traded products included crude petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, gas oil, durum wheat, machines for reception, conversion and transmission of data, used vehicles, motorcycles, agricultural seeders, medicaments, aircraft parts, butanes, petroleum bitumen, sugar cane, herbicides and fuel additives.

The report read, “The value of total imports stood at N13,619.33bn in the first quarter of 2026, representing a 18.17 per cent decrease from the value recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2025 (N16,644.42bn) and a 21.05 per cent decrease compared to the value recorded in Q4 2025 (N17,250.93bn).

“Analysis of Nigeria’s import trade reveals that China remained the leading source of imports in the first quarter of 2026, followed by the United States of America, India, Germany, and the United Arab Emirates. The most imported commodities during the quarter were petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals (crude), gas oil, durum wheat, machines for the reception, conversion, and transmission of voice, images, or data, and used vehicles with diesel or semi-diesel engines.

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“The value of other oil products imported in Q1 2026 stood at N748.10bn, reflecting an 85.05 per cent decrease from N5,005.22bn in Q1 2025 and an 81.38 per cent decrease from N4,018.31bn recorded in Q4 2025.”

The latest import figure is also the lowest quarterly amount spent on petrol imports since at least 2022, according to available trade records reviewed by our correspondent.

Data from previous years showed that Nigeria spent N2.694tn on petrol imports in the first quarter of 2022. The import bill declined by N661bn, or 24.5 per cent, to N2.033tn in the corresponding period of 2023.

However, petrol import spending surged by N1.780tn in 2024 to N3.813tn, representing an increase of 87.6 per cent year-on-year. The figure later dropped by N1.542tn, or 40.4 per cent, to N2.271tn in the first quarter of 2025 before plunging by a massive N2.184tn, or 96.15 per cent, to N87.401bn in the first quarter of 2026.

The latest figure means that for every N100 spent on petrol imports in the first quarter of 2025, only about N4 was spent during the same period in 2026. The NBS data also highlighted the changing structure of Nigeria’s petrol import trade profile over the years.

According to the report, the total trade value involving the petroleum product stood at N7.705tn in 2022. This declined marginally by N194bn, or 2.5 per cent, to N7.511tn in 2023.

Trade value, however, more than doubled in 2024, rising by N7.907tn, or 105.3 per cent, to N15.418tn, the highest level during the period under review. The figure subsequently fell by N5.045tn, or 32.7 per cent, to N10.373tn in 2025, reflecting changing trade dynamics in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.

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The PUNCH reports that the sharp reduction in petrol imports reflects the increasing contribution of domestic refining facilities to fuel supply, reducing Nigeria’s dependence on foreign suppliers and helping conserve foreign exchange.

For decades, Nigeria relied heavily on imported petrol despite being Africa’s largest crude oil producer, owing largely to the poor performance of state-owned refineries and inadequate domestic refining capacity.

The trend began to change following investments in local refining and the gradual increase in output from domestic refineries, which have reduced the need for large-scale fuel imports.

The sharp decline in petrol imports in the first quarter of 2026 comes amid growing domestic refining capacity, particularly from the operations of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which began supplying petrol to the Nigerian market in 2024.

For decades, Nigeria relied heavily on imported Premium Motor Spirit despite being Africa’s largest crude oil producer. The country’s state-owned refineries operated far below capacity for years, forcing marketers and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company to spend trillions of naira annually importing fuel to meet domestic demand.

The commissioning of the 650,000 barrels-per-day refinery in Lekki, Lagos, marked a turning point in the downstream petroleum sector. Since commencing petrol production, the refinery has steadily increased output, supplying marketers, industrial users and fuel distributors across the country.

In January, the Nigerian Midstream Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority reported that Dangote refinery supplied an average of 40.1 million litres of petrol daily, accounting for 61.78 per cent of Nigeria’s petrol supply. Imported fuel contributed 24.8 million litres per day during the month.

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It increased significantly in February as imports collapsed. The refinery supplied about 36.5 million litres per day, while imports dropped to roughly 3.1 million litres per day, meaning locally refined fuel accounted for more than 92 per cent of national supply.

According to the NMDPRA March fact sheet, Dangote remained the sole domestic supplier of petrol, supplying 34.2 million litres per day. Imports rose slightly to 5.9 million litres daily, bringing total supply to about 40.1 million litres per day.

Supply rebounded strongly in April. Dangote supplied 40.7 million litres per day to the domestic market, while imports declined further to 3.7 million litres daily. Total petrol supply stood at 44.4 million litres per day, giving the refinery a market share of approximately 92 per cent of locally consumed fuel and about 80–92 per cent of overall supply, depending on the methodology used.

The disappearance of petrol from the list of top imported products is expected to strengthen arguments that local refining is beginning to alter Nigeria’s trade patterns, lower import dependence and reshape the country’s foreign exchange requirements.

The sustained reductions in fuel imports could improve Nigeria’s trade balance, reduce pressure on the naira and retain more value within the domestic economy, provided local production continues to meet demand.

The first-quarter data therefore represents one of the clearest indications yet of a major shift in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, with petrol imports falling to levels not seen in more than four years.

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Nigerian workers deserve a living wage; read details

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THIS is a debate that never goes away for too long: what is due to Nigerian workers? The renewed agitation over workers’ wages, triggered by a fresh Nigeria Governors’ Forum proposal to raise the national minimum wage to N100,000 per month, only confirms that the country is trapped in an endless cycle of wage adjustments that inflation quickly renders meaningless.

This means that the issue is not just about the size of the minimum wage. Rather, it is about whether Nigerian workers can afford to live with dignity.

That is why the conversation must shift from a statutory minimum wage to a genuine living-wage regime – and a stable economy.

The proposal by the Chairman of the NGF, Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, has already been rejected by organised labour.

The Nigeria Labour Congress, through its spokesman, Benson Upah, dismissed N100,000 as grossly inadequate and argued that, given current realities, a realistic wage would be closer to N1 million per month!

The Federal Workers Forum also condemned the proposal as a “Greek gift,” insisting that it bears little relationship to prevailing economic conditions.

While the NLC’s N1 million demand may appear excessive to many, the underlying argument deserves serious attention.

The current N70,000 minimum wage approved in July 2024 has already been overtaken by inflation. Like every previous wage increase in Nigeria’s history, its real value has been rapidly eroded.

The country’s minimum wage trajectory elucidates this. It rose from N18,000 in 2011 to N30,000 in 2019 and then to N70,000 in 2024. Yet each increase was followed by soaring inflation that wiped out most of the gains.

It is alleged that some states have yet to implement the minimum wage for grassroots workers, local government employees and primary school teachers.

Dataphyte estimates that the real value of the previous N30,000 wage had collapsed to barely N11,708 by mid-2024. The current N70,000 wage is clearly following the same path.

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The CBN reported that workers lost N2.79 trillion in purchasing power in 2024 alone due to inflation. That explains why workers who celebrated the 133 per cent wage increase in 2024 now find themselves struggling to survive less than two years later.

Nothing illustrates the crisis more vividly than the National Bureau of Statistics and Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition Cost of a Healthy Diet data.

According to an analysis by The Whistler, a healthy diet for one adult now costs an average of N1,541 per day or N46,230 per month, excluding meal preparation costs.

This means that a worker earning N70,000 is left with just N23,770 after feeding only himself.

For an average Nigerian household of 5.06 persons, the monthly cost of a healthy diet rises to N233,923 — equivalent to 334 per cent of the current minimum wage.

In other words, the average worker cannot afford the minimum nutritional requirements recommended by global health standards.

Even the governors’ proposed N100,000 wage would still leave most families far below the subsistence level. It is therefore difficult to dispute labour’s argument that Nigeria’s wage structure has become detached from economic reality.

However, raising wages alone cannot solve the problem.

The organised private sector has raised legitimate concerns about its ability to pay across the board.

The president of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Leye Kupoluyi, said the private sector should not be compelled to pay the same wage level as the government if businesses could not afford it.

The Director-General of the Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association, Adewale Oyerinde, points out that the process for arriving at a National Minimum Wage is “rooted in widely acclaimed tripartite negotiations and consultation and not just political statements, without any empirical data to back up the quantum of increase.”

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise warned that many businesses are already struggling under crushing energy costs, logistics bottlenecks, foreign exchange challenges, multiple taxation and weak consumer demand. All this needs to be addressed.

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Indeed, any wage increase that is unsupported by productivity growth and economic reforms risks fuelling another inflationary spiral. Businesses facing higher wage bills often pass costs to consumers, thereby worsening the very inflation the wage increase seeks to offset.

Nigeria must therefore avoid the false choice between workers’ welfare and business survival.

The real objective should be a living-wage framework tied to measurable economic indicators and supported by aggressive cost-of-living reduction policies.

This is the model increasingly adopted across many countries. In South Africa, the national minimum wage is approximately 28.79 rand per hour, translating to well over N250,000 monthly at prevailing exchange rates.

Algeria’s minimum wage is around 20,000 dinars (N204,000) monthly, while Egypt recently increased its public-sector minimum wage to 7,000 Egyptian pounds (N184,000).

Kenya’s minimum wage varies by sector and location, but the average of 16,113 Kenyan Shillings (N169,500) remains significantly higher in purchasing power terms than Nigeria’s.

Nigeria should not be setting wage policy as though inflation were a temporary inconvenience.

Food inflation remains the principal driver of household hardship, standing at 16.06 per cent YoY and higher than headline inflation of 15.69 per cent as of April.

Massive investments in agricultural productivity, rural roads, storage infrastructure and security in farming communities are urgently needed.

The absurd situation where healthy diets are more expensive in some rural communities than in urban centres because of poor roads must end.

The government must also address transport costs through investments in rail, inland waterways and public transportation systems.

Electricity tariffs remain a major burden on both households and businesses. Lowering energy costs would immediately improve living standards while enhancing business competitiveness.

Investments in health by ramping up health insurance enrolment and better access to quality care, and in education, via massive infrastructure improvements and teacher recruitment, will reduce household expenditure on these essentials.

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Furthermore, labour’s argument regarding improved government revenues deserves scrutiny.

Since the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, higher oil prices have boosted Nigeria’s earnings. It is estimated that the windfall has added more than N5 trillion to government coffers.

Whether that figure is an exaggeration or not, governments are receiving historically high FAAC allocations, averaging over a 50 per cent surge for states in 2025 and all tiers sharing up to N2 trillion in 2026.

Nigerians deserve to see some direct benefit from these gains through targeted subsidies for food production and transportation, public transit and essential services.

More fundamentally, wage determination should no longer depend on sporadic political negotiations every few years.

The National Minimum Wage Act should be amended to provide for automatic annual adjustments linked to inflation, productivity and cost-of-living indicators. Such a mechanism would prevent workers from suffering prolonged erosion of purchasing power before the government responds.

Above all, policymakers must remember that they are insulated from the hardships confronting ordinary citizens.

Governors, legislators, political appointees and senior public officials enjoy humongous allowances, subsidised accommodation, official vehicles, security details and generous expense accounts.

They do not queue for transport. They do not worry about school fees after buying food. They do not feel inflation in the same way as the average worker.

That disconnect explains why debates over N70,000, N100,000 or even N1 million often miss the central issue.

The goal of wage policy is not simply to keep workers alive so that the job is done. It is to ensure that honest labour can provide a decent standard of living.

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