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Cross-border trading unethical, suppresses Nigerian market — NANTA boss

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For more than a year, Yinka Folami has steered the National Association of Nigerian Travel Agencies, a body of over 3,500 members, through some of the most challenging times in the downstream aviation sector. In this interview, the NANTA President speaks candidly about leadership, professionalism in travel agency practice, evolving industry policies, and the burning issues of cross-border trading, dollar sales, and their implications for Nigeria’s aviation landscape. OLASUNKANMI AKINLOTAN brings excerpts

you’ve led NANTA, an association with over 3,000 members, for more than a year now. What has the experience been like managing such a large body of industry players?

It’s been very interesting and, of course, challenging. But the important thing is that we are about 13 in council. The moment our administration came in, we decided to run a collective council. So, you find that there is a lot of delegation that goes on. We put our best foot forward. If we can do it, we better do it. So, it’s not as if I’m the only one leading. It’s the council that is leading. And the council also gets advisory support from the BO team. So, I believe that across both platforms, there is competence to lead the 3,500 members fairly.

Over two decades ago, you established your company. From a professional perspective, how would you assess the aviation sector since then?

Well, the aviation industry is evolving. So, basically, that’s what I would say. I would say that it is evolving. I would say that the pace could have been better, you know. But, obviously, the development of every sector is always a function of who leads that sector, or who is the head. If you place the current Minister of Aviation six years behind, maybe take him back to 2020 or 2018, somebody like this would have had major progress. So, if you backtrack the current minister to maybe six years before he came in, and if he was a person in charge of affairs, the aviation industry would have made so much more progress than we have at the moment.

That is not to say the previous ones did not have their own records and achievements. But the present one is very passionate, and he’s eager. So, he’s quick about a lot of things. One of the things that has saddled the aviation industry in Nigeria, particularly upstream aviation, we are in downstream because we are in sales; upstream is the airlines and their fleet and all of that, one of the things that has saddled the upstream aviation industry in Nigeria is the lease, the ban on Nigeria on leases of aircraft. You know, aircraft are very expensive. Most of these countries that thrive in aviation have access to lease agreements.

But, for a long time, Nigeria had been banned from getting access to particularly dry leases. So, what we have are wet leases, and wet leases are very expensive. What the aviation minister has done in the short while that Keyamo has been here is that Nigeria has been unbanned by many of these foreign players, such as South Africa, the Irish, and all of that. We are expecting that, obviously, local airlines will have better access to dry leases.

Another thing that I believe the government has to look at, and look into, is maybe access to funding. Funding aviation with a three-digit interest rate is difficult. What I would say is that we are evolving. But we are happy that we have the energy of the present leadership in aviation.

There’s a common perception that one can succeed in the travel agency and ticketing subsector with little or no experience. Would you say that’s true?

That’s not true. That’s absolutely not true, except you want to be a council and book anything. There are so many like this. You need the operations expertise, and you need the finance expertise. To run a successful travel agency, you have to be a competent professional manager. And when you say a ‘professional manager’, it’s somebody who spans everything. You have to be a finance person, you have to be a marketing person, and you have to be an operations person. We have doctors who have travel agencies now. We have lawyers and a lot of people who work for the bank at high levels. They own travel agencies now. You have to be a proper manager. And there are some specific operations, tickets, and reservation skills that you need to have. There are certification organisations like IATA and all of that, which are international. You have to acquire those skills. And they develop every time, because airline rules come up every day. So, you have to be educated to be able to follow up on them. And if you don’t follow up on them, one wrong command can set the ticket back. One wrong command can set the tickets back; one wrong command can lead to AGMs. So, it evolves.

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And then, secondly, you have a situation where you also have new airlines coming in every day. You have to learn about their product. For every new airline that comes in, you have to learn about their product. You have to go for specific training. Now, let me tell you where, in downstream innovation, the travel agency is really the master, and where, professionally, it can be seen to be even more competent than an airline staff. A travel agent needs to understand how all the airlines that operate into his base operate. So, he has to be a master of Kellen, he has to be a master of Air France, he has to be a master of Virgin, he has to be a master of Delta, and he has to be a master of United. He has to understand all the rules and policies of every one of those airlines. Everyone! Because he is servicing his clients, and his clients can go on any of the airlines.

Say you are an operations professional and you are working in just one airline. Your responsibility is to understand the policies and rules of the airline. But my responsibility is to understand the policies and rules of over 30 international airlines that fly into Nigeria, and we’re not even talking about the domestic ones. So, it’s not only that you need to be competent.

You also need to have the skills and to continuously develop yourself. Everybody who works in this office, for example, is a graduate. I can tell you that, easily, out of the 3,500 members, if you take a dipstick, I can tell you that easily 60-70% of them will be university graduates. That is one of our young members.

So, that (travel agency business does not require expertise) is a fallacy. And that is part of the things we are trying to stamp out. We are in the process of setting up our training institute.

And we will partner with relevant government establishments and international establishments to make sure that we continue to drive that professional capacity development in our sector.

There’s a growing belief that Nigerians are avoiding US routes due to the stringent policies introduced by the American government. Do you share this view?

I knew you were going to come there. Anytime any pressmen want to see you, they must talk about visas or must talk about America. You see, I always try to make one thing clear. You see, visa issues and visa policies are government issues. So, it is a policy of the government. And it is a diplomatic thing. That’s why, a lot of times, in the diplomatic circle, you talk about reciprocity. So, the first thing we need to understand is that it is a government thing. And there is little or nothing you can do to press that government about their immigration policies. If they become more restricted, if access to their visa becomes more restricted, it will definitely shift the pattern of travel.

Because I can easily tell you, though we don’t have the data and statistics, and I don’t like to speak to data and statistics that I don’t have. But I’m very certain that the number of visits to the U.S., because of that visa restriction and policy access, would have been affected, and the numbers would have been reduced. Personally, it stopped me, it affected me, and it stopped me from renewal. Because I’m thinking that, because of my schedule, you can imagine how long we’ve been trying to schedule this interview, because I’ve not been in control of my schedule for maybe like two months. So, if I get a renewal of three months, what will it get me? So, I might get a renewal of three months, and before I’m ready to go, the thing expires. So, it’s a policy. Every government is informed about why they go into, you know, their policy regimes. So, definitely, it will have affected travel. If the trend continues, traffic to somewhere else will continue.

And lastly, I want to talk about visa. In NATA, we are very strong on Africa for Africa. And Africa is beginning to open up for Africa now. For example, the last time I went to Kenya, it was like coming back home. I just gave him my passport, and there were no questions. There were absolutely no questions. Within 10 seconds, I was out. They just took my passport and gave it back to me.

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So, what I’m trying to say is that eventually the pattern of travel and traffic will go along the path of countries where people are welcome. That’s how it will go.

So, if this guy says that you are not welcome, go to where you are welcome. If you don’t welcome me into your house, and somebody else welcomes me into his house, I will gladly go to where I’m welcome. Because before I sit down, they will give me water to wash my hands and make food for me. That is how the vision will eventually go. And when we continue to open those paths, investments follow opportunities. When we see that there are more opportunities in Africa for African visitors, those routes too will open up.

You know, we are seeing some airlines coming into Nigeria, Tanzania Air, and all of that. Yes, albeit slowly. But the day or the time that Africa realises and completely starts to consume Africa, that Africa is consuming Africa, the opportunities for connectivity will open up, and investments will flow into them. So, let’s visit places where we are welcome. My own position now is that I will do more of African countries, because they are exciting and interesting places. And everywhere you go in Africa, Nigerians are welcome. Forget all these social media things. The social media things are not a reflection of their perception of us.

Because there is no African country that I have been to that they are not welcoming, either socially or professionally. They also want to hear us talk. And they are waiting on us.

Cross-border trading has increasingly dominated conversations in the industry, often described as a challenge to your profession. What steps has NANTA taken to address this, what results have you recorded, and how far along are you in this fight?

So, cross-border trading is a sin, and we keep saying it all the time for people who are willing to listen. It is a sin. It is a sin against a market that welcomes you. The way it operates is an agency sits in Nigeria. You are the customer of that agency that sits in Nigeria, and you want to go, say, to the UK, to London. Another agency, so this is a Nigerian agency, and it is a Nigerian customer. Another agency sits somewhere else in the world, maybe in Asia or in Congo. That agency has a better fare for your Lagos–London–Lagos tickets than the agency that sits in Nigeria. So, it is a deliberate suppression of the market. There are not two names to call it. It is a suppression of the market, and it is unnecessary. Okay, we can say, ‘Oh, is that not the problem of the airline and all of that?’ You know, the airlines have their pricing structures, but there are unethical practices. There are some unethical travel agency practices in there. So, you know, you have some global agencies. They are welcome everywhere. But what we are saying is that you shouldn’t use your global reach to suppress our market and undercut the market.

There is no point. You know, the world is becoming a global village. The world is a global village now. So, you are all welcome to practise. But practise and be ethical within your practice in our market. Why would you go and, because you are a global trader, why would you go and bring the fare that is available to you, right, in another station? You understand, we say they are a global practice. You bring the fare that is available to you in another market and come and take it to undercut our market. For what purpose does it serve? You want to get the share of our market? If you want to get the share of the market, then compete effectively. Compete ethically. Because what is happening is that those tickets that are sold unethically are not being recorded for this market. That is why Nigeria dropped to the third position on BSP. Nigeria used to be number one on BSP, a consistent number one. In the last one and a half years, Nigeria has been number three, a distant third behind Egypt. It is now South Africa, Egypt, and Nigeria. These are not things that will help the market to develop since the statistics do not count for us.

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And secondly, it devalues everything we have in Nigeria. Let us start with the customer who gets the cheaper ticket. You know why they can sell an undercut is because it is cheaper for them, right? Services for tickets like that are restricted, and eventually the customer pays more if the customer runs into any trouble with change, because services in terms of change become difficult.

Because that ticket was sold from another clime, maybe he is asleep when the customer needs to do something in the course of the travel… So, we have had many cases. We have had many cases where customers have run into trouble if they have had to change or if they are not sure. Because service to certain tickets is restricted. There are police cases that come up because most of the time, those kinds of tickets are heavily restricted. So, that is a disservice to the consumer.

Then let us now talk about the travel agents. We have 3,500 members of NANTA. Some of our members are closing their shops. So, there is an unemployment issue. There is a serious unemployment issue there.

Then let us go to the GDS companies; we all know that, particularly in the multinational organisations, it is all about your numbers. The GDS companies that are operating locally in Nigeria are losing numbers. And these GDS companies employ Nigerians. When they are losing numbers, what eventually happens? They start to lay off. And this problem we are talking about would eventually hit the airline staff who are working locally for the airline. Because if your load factor is high, you know 40 per cent of the sales are not from your market.

Why would I need somebody at your level? And at best, you start to operate with just movie officers. The load factor is high, but 40 per cent of that load factor is not from the market, you know. To show you that it’s an absolute sin and to show you that some airlines that are responsive are listening to us, some airlines have adjusted their pricing structure and pricing policies to give priority to the point of commencement. It’s called POC. That is the point where that travel commences. And since your travel commences from Lagos. So, when pricing, the pricing is defaulted to give priority to the point of commencement. So, the points of commencement will have the better price. Or at least there is no other market that will have a better price than the points of commencement. Some airlines have done that. Because that is a fair thing to do. Otherwise, that practice will completely erode our market. And this problem is a general problem in Africa now, because we have gone to a few conferences in Africa. And when we talk about it, they always recognise that they are also facing the same situation, particularly Zimbabwe that is so upset by it. And they say that it is killing their market. And that they know that most of the tickets that are issued in their country are issued by another country that is much smaller than them. And that person from that smaller country is bigger on BSP. It’s a big, big problem in many countries. So, what we have now been doing is that we have been exchanging ideas. Sometimes, you know, we have meetings with associations of some countries. We have meetings.

In an African country, in a French West African country, there are five major unethical players. Major unethical travel agency global players that are under investigation for tax evasion and fraud. And we understand that their licences have been suspended, at least as far back as I know. It’s a suppression of the market that is unnecessary. Why would we allow our market to be suppressed? That is why we keep talking about it. Now, what achievements have we made so far? Look, if you listen very well, you’ll find that this government is responsive. This government listens. I know I initially made some comments about the Minister of Aviation. One thing you can’t take away from him is that he listens. He responds, and he always shows up when he’s available.

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Highest bidder won’t automatically get oil blocks — FG

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The Federal Government on Tuesday said the highest financial bidder would not automatically emerge as the winner of an oil block in the ongoing 2025 Licensing Round, insisting that technical competence and operational capability would play a decisive role in determining successful bidders.

Speaking at the 2025 Commercial Bid Conference in Abuja, the Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, said the commission’s evaluation process was designed to ensure petroleum assets were awarded to companies capable of developing them, rather than firms that simply submitted the highest financial offers.

She said the assessment process was rigorous, objective and aimed at securing the best long-term value for Nigeria’s upstream petroleum sector.

“The evaluation was rigorous. It was objective. It was simple. And it was to place assets in the hands of bidders capable of delivering the best overall long-term value. It wasn’t, or it isn’t going to be just about your ability to be the highest bidder.

“We want to ensure that you have the right capabilities to deliver the assets, in addition to having the financial resources to deliver these assets. The team carefully assessed each bidder’s competence and experience, organisational and operational capacity, credibility of their proposed work programme, resource commitment to execution, and the ability to deliver within the proposed time frame,” Eyesan said.

She explained that the commission assessed bidders based on competence, experience, operational capacity, the credibility of their work programmes, resource commitment and their ability to execute projects within specified timelines.

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“Today, the commercial components of the qualified bids will be opened. And as was said earlier, forget whatever you’ve been told, forget whatever you’ve heard, nobody has seen anybody’s commercial bids. And we will demonstrate that today.

“This approach of ensuring close bids is in recognition of the fact that these equities must be operated by credible, competent operators. Not, I repeat, by operators who can bid the highest,” she added.

The commercial bid opening marks the final stage of the licensing process before the successful companies are announced.

PUNCH Online reports that the 2025 Licensing Round was announced on November 11, 2025, in line with the Petroleum Industry Act 2021, with 50 oil and gas blocks offered across seven sedimentary basins.

The assets comprise 16 Niger Delta onshore blocks, 18 shallow water blocks, one deep offshore block, three blocks in the Benin Basin, four in the Anambra Basin, four in the Chad Basin and four in the Benue Trough.

The bid portal opened on December 1, 2025, while a pre-bid conference was held on January 14, 2026, in Lagos to guide prospective investors on the bidding requirements.

Registration and prequalification submissions closed on February 27, 2026, with the prequalification process completed on March 16.

Under the licensing guidelines, winning bids are determined through a weighted evaluation of signature bonus commitments, proposed work programmes and performance security, combining both technical and commercial scores rather than financial offers alone.

The framework is intended to ensure that petroleum assets are awarded to investors with the financial strength, technical expertise and operational capacity required to accelerate exploration and production in Nigeria’s upstream sector.

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FG securities deliver positive real returns to investors

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Nigeria’s fixed-income market is offering investors something that has been scarce in recent years – real returns that outpace the inflation rate.

When investment returns beat the inflation rate, investors gain, as the value of their money grows in purchasing power terms, not just in nominal value. This is exactly what the Federal Government bonds and treasury bills now offer investors.

Headline inflation fell to 15.91 per cent in June 2026 from 15.93 per cent in May, halting three straight months of increases, according to the National Bureau of Statistics showed.

The slight decline has been enough to push the yields on some government debt instruments above the inflation rate, allowing investors to preserve and grow their purchasing power after a long period of negative real returns.

The improvement, however, has not extended to all products. The latest FGN Savings Bond, targeted mainly at retail investors, still offers a maximum coupon of 15.716 per cent, leaving it marginally below the prevailing inflation rate.

But higher sovereign borrowing costs have largely driven the return to positive real yields. At the June FGN bond auction, the January 2035 and April 2037 bonds cleared at marginal rates of 18.34 per cent and 18.35 per cent, translating to positive real returns of roughly 244 basis points above June’s inflation rate.

Likewise, the 364-day treasury bill sold at the 15 July auction recorded a stop rate of 17.66 per cent, still remaining ahead of inflation.

There is a stronger investor appetite as market participants reposition their portfolios.

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Treasury bill turnover increased 137.49 per cent to N1.51tn, while FGN bond turnover climbed 75.91 per cent to N1.20tn in the week ended 19 June, reflecting stronger trading activity across the sovereign debt market.

“Positive real returns make treasury bills and government bonds attractive again because investors are rewarded in real, inflation-adjusted terms,” said an emerging markets expert, Ike Ibeabuchi.

The Financial Markets Dealers Association said pricing in the domestic fixed-income market continues to be shaped by inflation expectations and liquidity conditions, even as several major central banks around the world begin shifting towards monetary policy easing.

Analysts, however, caution that the current period of attractive inflation-adjusted returns may be temporary. A former central banker, Chukwunonso Iheoma, estimates the Monetary Policy Rate to fall to 25.5 per cent by the last quarter of 2025.

Standard Chartered, on the other hand, expects the MPR to decline to 25 per cent by the end of 2026. Chief economist, Razia Khan, said the bank now sees room for 150 basis points of monetary easing this year. An Abuja-based fixed income analyst, Joshua Tan, agreed with Khan, but stressed that impending higher energy prices could kibosh positive expectations about lower inflation and interest rate cuts this year.

Cowry Research expects the Monetary Policy Committee to retain its cautious stance at its July meeting but believes sustained moderation in inflation could open the door to the first interest rate cut in September.

But S&P Global warned that rising energy prices could erode the positive real returns currently available on government securities: “Increases in fuel costs as a result of the war in the Middle East have driven up costs among sub-Saharan African companies, putting upwards pressure on inflation and likely bringing to an end cycle of interest rate easing seen in a number of economies in the region.”

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A Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the University of Uyo, Prof Akpan Ekpo, noted that the MPC would likely maintain the current rate because of the uncertainty created by the US-Iran conflict.

According to GTI Limited, Treasury bills, particularly the 364-day instruments, currently provide the strongest mix of yield, liquidity and inflation protection. In contrast, FGN Savings Bonds remain slightly below inflation, highlighting the widening gap between institutional fixed-income instruments and retail-focused savings products.

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Oil cargoes meant for naira-for-crude deal supplied to Dangote – NNPC

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has insisted that it supplied all available crude oil cargoes allocated under the Federal Government’s naira-for-crude initiative to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, saying there had been no withholding on its part.

The national oil company stated this even as a top management official of the Dangote Group disclosed exclusively to The PUNCH that the refinery was receiving just four million barrels of crude oil monthly under the arrangement, instead of about 13 million barrels envisaged after President Bola Tinubu’s 2024 directive.

The refinery had attributed its decision to switch from naira-denominated fuel sales to dollar transactions to the crude supply shortfall, saying it would also increase exports of refined petroleum products to earn foreign exchange.

Responding on Monday, the NNPC, through its spokesman, Andy Odeh, said the company had fully discharged its obligations under the naira-for-crude policy. “As a 7.25 per cent equity shareholder in Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals, NNPC Limited has a direct and genuine interest in seeing the refinery operate at full capacity. That is not in dispute.

“What the figures being cited require is context. Under the naira-denominated crude supply arrangement, NNPC Limited has allocated 100 per cent of all available naira crude cargoes to DPRP in 2026 — there has been no withholding on our part. Actual off-take in any period is shaped by several variables: crude availability, nomination timelines, and the refinery’s own operational scheduling.

Odeh said the NNPC has met its obligations to the refinery, saying the two parties are resolving any existing gaps together. “NNPC Limited has met its 2026 supply obligations to the refinery. Our engagement with DPRP management remains constructive, and where any gaps exist, we are resolving them together — as the partners we are.

“A fully supplied, fully operational Dangote refinery serving the Nigerian market is an obligation NNPC Limited shares without reservation,” he added.

However, the Dangote Group maintained that the crude volumes supplied under the arrangement were inadequate to sustain naira-denominated fuel sales.

A top management official of the Dangote Group had told The PUNCH that crude supply under the naira-for-crude arrangement had been limited to just four million barrels monthly despite the increase in Nigeria’s crude oil production.

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The official, who pleaded anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, said the refinery was now set to export a larger percentage of its products in exchange for foreign exchange.

“Since the traders have brought lots of imported products to the market, we are focusing on exports. We can’t, and we shouldn’t be fighting against the government’s policies,” the source said.

Our correspondent told the official that exporting without adequately supplying the domestic market would not be good for the country, but he responded with a question: “Is issuing massive import licences and releasing forex for imports good for the country, when 45 per cent of our production can meet 100 per cent of the entire country’s requirements in terms of petrol, diesel and aviation fuel?”

When told that the NNPC said it had increased crude supply to the Dangote refinery, the official replied, “Do you think that they will keep quiet if we process the naira crude and export the products? We are getting just four million barrels monthly.”

With the sale of petrol in dollars to local marketers, the Dangote official disclosed that the refinery would now process whatever crude it receives under the naira arrangement and supply the equivalent refined products in naira to the Nigerian market through the NNPC.

“We will account for every barrel of crude we receive against the naira payment by supplying equivalent products in naira. We will do that through the NNPC. The NNPC buys a lot from us,” he said.

The refinery had maintained that the inability to secure the expected crude volumes under the naira-for-crude initiative compelled it to abandon naira-denominated fuel sales and adopt dollar pricing for petroleum products.

Last week, the refinery announced a new dollar-denominated pricing template, fixing the ex-depot price of petrol at $0.779 per litre, diesel at $1.087 per litre and aviation fuel at $0.942 per litre.

The move has drawn criticism from petroleum marketers, who warned that it could increase pressure on fuel prices, although the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority said the decision was consistent with the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act, which allows refiners to recover their costs.

Supply worsens

Meanwhile, petrol supply in the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, worsened on Monday with the closure of some major filling stations in Abuja and a fresh increase in the pump price of petrol.

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Checks by one of our correspondents showed that some stations operated by NNPC Limited and MRS along the Airport Road Expressway were shut when visited on Monday.

At stations that were dispensing the product, petrol was being sold at between N1,250 and N1,280 per litre. Bovas sold petrol at N1,250 per litre, while Azman Filling Station at 6th Avenue dispensed the product at N1,280 per litre. Salbas also sold petrol at N1,280 per litre.

The development has further heightened concerns among motorists and other consumers over the rising cost and availability of petrol in the nation’s capital. For motorists in Abuja, Monday’s development meant longer searches for petrol, closed stations and prices as high as N1,280 per litre at outlets that had the product available.

Meanwhile, truck traffic has surged across major private petroleum depots in Lagos as marketers scramble for petrol supplies following the fifth consecutive day of suspended loading at Dangote Petroleum Refinery amid growing expectations that wholesale prices could rise when operations resume.

Expert reacts

Meanwhile, Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics and Principal Facilitator at the FUPRE Energy Business School, Wumi Iledare, said the Dangote refinery’s decision to sell petrol in dollars should be viewed within the broader context of petroleum economics and Nigeria’s energy security rather than merely the currency in which products are priced.

According to Iledare, the move is a commercial response to the realities of the global oil market, where crude oil, the refinery’s major feedstock, is traded in United States dollars.

Iledare explained that pricing refined products in dollars enables the refinery to reduce its exposure to exchange rate volatility and provides greater revenue certainty, although it shifts part of the foreign exchange risk to fuel marketers and, ultimately, consumers, where the costs are passed on.

He stressed that the refinery’s dollar pricing would not automatically translate to higher fuel prices, noting that domestic petrol prices would instead become more closely tied to movements in international crude oil prices and the naira-dollar exchange rate.

“Does this necessarily mean higher fuel prices? Not necessarily. What it does mean is that domestic fuel prices become more closely linked to two key variables: international crude oil prices and the naira-dollar exchange rate. If crude prices rise or the naira weakens, pump prices are likely to increase. Conversely, if crude prices decline or the naira strengthens, consumers should also expect prices to adjust downward. That is how a market-oriented pricing system is expected to function,” he said.

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The petroleum expert maintained that despite concerns over dollar-denominated pricing, the Dangote refinery had strengthened Nigeria’s energy security by reducing dependence on imported petrol and improving the availability of petroleum products.

He, however, noted that domestic refining alone could not guarantee affordability, saying fuel prices would continue to depend on exchange rate stability, international crude prices, logistics costs and the level of competition in the downstream sector.

“The refinery has significantly improved the availability of petroleum products by reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported PMS. That alone makes the country less vulnerable to disruptions in international supply chains and enhances supply reliability.

“This is why I would say that Dangote Refinery can shield Nigeria more effectively from supply shocks than from price shocks. Domestic refining improves energy security, but it cannot completely insulate Nigeria from global petroleum market dynamics because crude oil still has an international opportunity cost, whether it is refined in Lagos, Rotterdam, or Houston,” he stated.

On the implications for the naira, Iledare argued that pricing petroleum products in dollars would not automatically weaken the local currency. “As for the impact on the naira, the answer is more nuanced than many assume. Dollar pricing by itself does not automatically weaken the naira. What matters is whether the arrangement increases or reduces Nigeria’s net demand for foreign exchange,” he said.

He urged policymakers to focus less on the currency in which petroleum products are priced and more on building an efficient and competitive downstream market.

“The real issue is therefore not the currency of pricing. The real issue is whether Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market satisfies the four tests of good public policy: efficiency, effectiveness, equity, and ethics. Those are the standards by which this development should be judged,” he added.

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