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Cross-border trading unethical, suppresses Nigerian market — NANTA boss

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For more than a year, Yinka Folami has steered the National Association of Nigerian Travel Agencies, a body of over 3,500 members, through some of the most challenging times in the downstream aviation sector. In this interview, the NANTA President speaks candidly about leadership, professionalism in travel agency practice, evolving industry policies, and the burning issues of cross-border trading, dollar sales, and their implications for Nigeria’s aviation landscape. OLASUNKANMI AKINLOTAN brings excerpts

you’ve led NANTA, an association with over 3,000 members, for more than a year now. What has the experience been like managing such a large body of industry players?

It’s been very interesting and, of course, challenging. But the important thing is that we are about 13 in council. The moment our administration came in, we decided to run a collective council. So, you find that there is a lot of delegation that goes on. We put our best foot forward. If we can do it, we better do it. So, it’s not as if I’m the only one leading. It’s the council that is leading. And the council also gets advisory support from the BO team. So, I believe that across both platforms, there is competence to lead the 3,500 members fairly.

Over two decades ago, you established your company. From a professional perspective, how would you assess the aviation sector since then?

Well, the aviation industry is evolving. So, basically, that’s what I would say. I would say that it is evolving. I would say that the pace could have been better, you know. But, obviously, the development of every sector is always a function of who leads that sector, or who is the head. If you place the current Minister of Aviation six years behind, maybe take him back to 2020 or 2018, somebody like this would have had major progress. So, if you backtrack the current minister to maybe six years before he came in, and if he was a person in charge of affairs, the aviation industry would have made so much more progress than we have at the moment.

That is not to say the previous ones did not have their own records and achievements. But the present one is very passionate, and he’s eager. So, he’s quick about a lot of things. One of the things that has saddled the aviation industry in Nigeria, particularly upstream aviation, we are in downstream because we are in sales; upstream is the airlines and their fleet and all of that, one of the things that has saddled the upstream aviation industry in Nigeria is the lease, the ban on Nigeria on leases of aircraft. You know, aircraft are very expensive. Most of these countries that thrive in aviation have access to lease agreements.

But, for a long time, Nigeria had been banned from getting access to particularly dry leases. So, what we have are wet leases, and wet leases are very expensive. What the aviation minister has done in the short while that Keyamo has been here is that Nigeria has been unbanned by many of these foreign players, such as South Africa, the Irish, and all of that. We are expecting that, obviously, local airlines will have better access to dry leases.

Another thing that I believe the government has to look at, and look into, is maybe access to funding. Funding aviation with a three-digit interest rate is difficult. What I would say is that we are evolving. But we are happy that we have the energy of the present leadership in aviation.

There’s a common perception that one can succeed in the travel agency and ticketing subsector with little or no experience. Would you say that’s true?

That’s not true. That’s absolutely not true, except you want to be a council and book anything. There are so many like this. You need the operations expertise, and you need the finance expertise. To run a successful travel agency, you have to be a competent professional manager. And when you say a ‘professional manager’, it’s somebody who spans everything. You have to be a finance person, you have to be a marketing person, and you have to be an operations person. We have doctors who have travel agencies now. We have lawyers and a lot of people who work for the bank at high levels. They own travel agencies now. You have to be a proper manager. And there are some specific operations, tickets, and reservation skills that you need to have. There are certification organisations like IATA and all of that, which are international. You have to acquire those skills. And they develop every time, because airline rules come up every day. So, you have to be educated to be able to follow up on them. And if you don’t follow up on them, one wrong command can set the ticket back. One wrong command can set the tickets back; one wrong command can lead to AGMs. So, it evolves.

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And then, secondly, you have a situation where you also have new airlines coming in every day. You have to learn about their product. For every new airline that comes in, you have to learn about their product. You have to go for specific training. Now, let me tell you where, in downstream innovation, the travel agency is really the master, and where, professionally, it can be seen to be even more competent than an airline staff. A travel agent needs to understand how all the airlines that operate into his base operate. So, he has to be a master of Kellen, he has to be a master of Air France, he has to be a master of Virgin, he has to be a master of Delta, and he has to be a master of United. He has to understand all the rules and policies of every one of those airlines. Everyone! Because he is servicing his clients, and his clients can go on any of the airlines.

Say you are an operations professional and you are working in just one airline. Your responsibility is to understand the policies and rules of the airline. But my responsibility is to understand the policies and rules of over 30 international airlines that fly into Nigeria, and we’re not even talking about the domestic ones. So, it’s not only that you need to be competent.

You also need to have the skills and to continuously develop yourself. Everybody who works in this office, for example, is a graduate. I can tell you that, easily, out of the 3,500 members, if you take a dipstick, I can tell you that easily 60-70% of them will be university graduates. That is one of our young members.

So, that (travel agency business does not require expertise) is a fallacy. And that is part of the things we are trying to stamp out. We are in the process of setting up our training institute.

And we will partner with relevant government establishments and international establishments to make sure that we continue to drive that professional capacity development in our sector.

There’s a growing belief that Nigerians are avoiding US routes due to the stringent policies introduced by the American government. Do you share this view?

I knew you were going to come there. Anytime any pressmen want to see you, they must talk about visas or must talk about America. You see, I always try to make one thing clear. You see, visa issues and visa policies are government issues. So, it is a policy of the government. And it is a diplomatic thing. That’s why, a lot of times, in the diplomatic circle, you talk about reciprocity. So, the first thing we need to understand is that it is a government thing. And there is little or nothing you can do to press that government about their immigration policies. If they become more restricted, if access to their visa becomes more restricted, it will definitely shift the pattern of travel.

Because I can easily tell you, though we don’t have the data and statistics, and I don’t like to speak to data and statistics that I don’t have. But I’m very certain that the number of visits to the U.S., because of that visa restriction and policy access, would have been affected, and the numbers would have been reduced. Personally, it stopped me, it affected me, and it stopped me from renewal. Because I’m thinking that, because of my schedule, you can imagine how long we’ve been trying to schedule this interview, because I’ve not been in control of my schedule for maybe like two months. So, if I get a renewal of three months, what will it get me? So, I might get a renewal of three months, and before I’m ready to go, the thing expires. So, it’s a policy. Every government is informed about why they go into, you know, their policy regimes. So, definitely, it will have affected travel. If the trend continues, traffic to somewhere else will continue.

And lastly, I want to talk about visa. In NATA, we are very strong on Africa for Africa. And Africa is beginning to open up for Africa now. For example, the last time I went to Kenya, it was like coming back home. I just gave him my passport, and there were no questions. There were absolutely no questions. Within 10 seconds, I was out. They just took my passport and gave it back to me.

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So, what I’m trying to say is that eventually the pattern of travel and traffic will go along the path of countries where people are welcome. That’s how it will go.

So, if this guy says that you are not welcome, go to where you are welcome. If you don’t welcome me into your house, and somebody else welcomes me into his house, I will gladly go to where I’m welcome. Because before I sit down, they will give me water to wash my hands and make food for me. That is how the vision will eventually go. And when we continue to open those paths, investments follow opportunities. When we see that there are more opportunities in Africa for African visitors, those routes too will open up.

You know, we are seeing some airlines coming into Nigeria, Tanzania Air, and all of that. Yes, albeit slowly. But the day or the time that Africa realises and completely starts to consume Africa, that Africa is consuming Africa, the opportunities for connectivity will open up, and investments will flow into them. So, let’s visit places where we are welcome. My own position now is that I will do more of African countries, because they are exciting and interesting places. And everywhere you go in Africa, Nigerians are welcome. Forget all these social media things. The social media things are not a reflection of their perception of us.

Because there is no African country that I have been to that they are not welcoming, either socially or professionally. They also want to hear us talk. And they are waiting on us.

Cross-border trading has increasingly dominated conversations in the industry, often described as a challenge to your profession. What steps has NANTA taken to address this, what results have you recorded, and how far along are you in this fight?

So, cross-border trading is a sin, and we keep saying it all the time for people who are willing to listen. It is a sin. It is a sin against a market that welcomes you. The way it operates is an agency sits in Nigeria. You are the customer of that agency that sits in Nigeria, and you want to go, say, to the UK, to London. Another agency, so this is a Nigerian agency, and it is a Nigerian customer. Another agency sits somewhere else in the world, maybe in Asia or in Congo. That agency has a better fare for your Lagos–London–Lagos tickets than the agency that sits in Nigeria. So, it is a deliberate suppression of the market. There are not two names to call it. It is a suppression of the market, and it is unnecessary. Okay, we can say, ‘Oh, is that not the problem of the airline and all of that?’ You know, the airlines have their pricing structures, but there are unethical practices. There are some unethical travel agency practices in there. So, you know, you have some global agencies. They are welcome everywhere. But what we are saying is that you shouldn’t use your global reach to suppress our market and undercut the market.

There is no point. You know, the world is becoming a global village. The world is a global village now. So, you are all welcome to practise. But practise and be ethical within your practice in our market. Why would you go and, because you are a global trader, why would you go and bring the fare that is available to you, right, in another station? You understand, we say they are a global practice. You bring the fare that is available to you in another market and come and take it to undercut our market. For what purpose does it serve? You want to get the share of our market? If you want to get the share of the market, then compete effectively. Compete ethically. Because what is happening is that those tickets that are sold unethically are not being recorded for this market. That is why Nigeria dropped to the third position on BSP. Nigeria used to be number one on BSP, a consistent number one. In the last one and a half years, Nigeria has been number three, a distant third behind Egypt. It is now South Africa, Egypt, and Nigeria. These are not things that will help the market to develop since the statistics do not count for us.

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And secondly, it devalues everything we have in Nigeria. Let us start with the customer who gets the cheaper ticket. You know why they can sell an undercut is because it is cheaper for them, right? Services for tickets like that are restricted, and eventually the customer pays more if the customer runs into any trouble with change, because services in terms of change become difficult.

Because that ticket was sold from another clime, maybe he is asleep when the customer needs to do something in the course of the travel… So, we have had many cases. We have had many cases where customers have run into trouble if they have had to change or if they are not sure. Because service to certain tickets is restricted. There are police cases that come up because most of the time, those kinds of tickets are heavily restricted. So, that is a disservice to the consumer.

Then let us now talk about the travel agents. We have 3,500 members of NANTA. Some of our members are closing their shops. So, there is an unemployment issue. There is a serious unemployment issue there.

Then let us go to the GDS companies; we all know that, particularly in the multinational organisations, it is all about your numbers. The GDS companies that are operating locally in Nigeria are losing numbers. And these GDS companies employ Nigerians. When they are losing numbers, what eventually happens? They start to lay off. And this problem we are talking about would eventually hit the airline staff who are working locally for the airline. Because if your load factor is high, you know 40 per cent of the sales are not from your market.

Why would I need somebody at your level? And at best, you start to operate with just movie officers. The load factor is high, but 40 per cent of that load factor is not from the market, you know. To show you that it’s an absolute sin and to show you that some airlines that are responsive are listening to us, some airlines have adjusted their pricing structure and pricing policies to give priority to the point of commencement. It’s called POC. That is the point where that travel commences. And since your travel commences from Lagos. So, when pricing, the pricing is defaulted to give priority to the point of commencement. So, the points of commencement will have the better price. Or at least there is no other market that will have a better price than the points of commencement. Some airlines have done that. Because that is a fair thing to do. Otherwise, that practice will completely erode our market. And this problem is a general problem in Africa now, because we have gone to a few conferences in Africa. And when we talk about it, they always recognise that they are also facing the same situation, particularly Zimbabwe that is so upset by it. And they say that it is killing their market. And that they know that most of the tickets that are issued in their country are issued by another country that is much smaller than them. And that person from that smaller country is bigger on BSP. It’s a big, big problem in many countries. So, what we have now been doing is that we have been exchanging ideas. Sometimes, you know, we have meetings with associations of some countries. We have meetings.

In an African country, in a French West African country, there are five major unethical players. Major unethical travel agency global players that are under investigation for tax evasion and fraud. And we understand that their licences have been suspended, at least as far back as I know. It’s a suppression of the market that is unnecessary. Why would we allow our market to be suppressed? That is why we keep talking about it. Now, what achievements have we made so far? Look, if you listen very well, you’ll find that this government is responsive. This government listens. I know I initially made some comments about the Minister of Aviation. One thing you can’t take away from him is that he listens. He responds, and he always shows up when he’s available.

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Nigerians spend N50bn on US visa applications

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Nigerians spent more than N50bn on US visa applications between 2023 and 2024, despite a sharp decline in approvals as Washington tightened immigration controls and increased scrutiny of applicants.

An analysis of the Intelpoint report, using data from the US Department of State, shows that 201,200 non-immigrant visas were issued to Nigerians between 2023 and 2024. At a standard application fee of $185 per applicant, Nigerians spent approximately $37.2m, equivalent to N50.7bn at an average exchange rate of N1,360 to the dollar.

Visa issuances declined by about 23 per cent, falling to 87,300 in 2024 from 113,900 in 2023, a reduction of 26,600 visas. The PUNCH could not obtain comparable figures for 2025 at the time of reporting.

Business and tourism travel dominated approvals in 2024, with B1/B2 visas accounting for 83 per cent of total issuances, while student visas (F1) represented about seven per cent. Exchange visitor visas (J1) and other temporary categories made up the remainder.

Africa’s most populous nation remained a significant source market for the United States, accounting for about 0.8 per cent of global non-immigrant visa issuances in 2024, the data showed.

Former President of the National Association of Nigeria Travel Agencies, Susan Akporiaye, said Nigerians’ travel behaviour is driven by more than economic conditions, noting a strong cultural inclination toward mobility.

“People would say it’s because of the economy, but I share a different view. Nigerians are generally migrants; they love travelling.

We are like the Chinese of Africa,” Akporiaye told The PUNCH.

The executive argued that most Nigerians who travel abroad return home, and only a small proportion remain outside the country permanently. “There is so much noise of Nigerians staying back. The ones who travel and return are far more than those who stay back. It’s not up to 10 per cent that don’t return,” she stated.

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The decline in visa issuances comes amid a series of policy changes introduced after Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, which have gradually tightened requirements for Nigerian applicants.

In July 2025, the US Department of State announced that most non-immigrant and non-diplomatic visas issued to Nigerian citizens would be restricted to single-entry permits valid for three months, with existing visas unaffected.

In August, applicants were required to disclose all social media usernames used over the previous five years on DS-160 forms, with officials warning that omissions could lead to visa denial or ineligibility.

Akporiaye also noted that travel demand cuts across income levels, from affluent individuals to ordinary citizens travelling for social events. “Nigerians like to explore. We travel for birthdays, weddings, and other ceremonies. I’m not talking about people like Dangote or Otedola, but ordinary Nigerians you don’t even know,” she said.

The expert, however, acknowledged that demand for US travel has softened relative to other destinations, citing operational and policy-related constraints.

“The demand has reduced for some destinations like the US, and it’s becoming worse now. Conditional requirements and operational changes at the US Embassy in Abuja have made access more difficult, including the consolidation of services in Lagos,” she stated.

“There are stories about visas being cancelled or Nigerians getting deported, and that makes people a bit sceptical. But other destinations are still booming.”

Further tightening followed in December 2025, when the US Mission in Nigeria said Washington expanded travel restrictions to include partial limitations on Nigeria and five other countries, effective January 1, 2026.

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An executive at Travel and Tours Limited, Maureen Chimaobi, said securing a US visa has become increasingly difficult over the past year, with many first-time applicants facing steep odds despite completing all required procedures.

“Last year, getting a US visa drastically reduced, especially if you are a first-time traveller or first-time applicant. It’s almost a no-go area,” Chimaobi told our correspondent.

She noted that applicants continue to pay visa fees, schedule appointments and attend interviews, but approvals have become far less predictable. “You pay your visa fee, book your appointment and go for submission. Most of the time, they don’t give it,” the agent said.

The trend reflects growing concerns among travel operators about declining approval rates for Nigerian applicants, even as demand for overseas travel remains strong. Chimaobi said rejection levels have remained high throughout the period under review, particularly for individuals with limited international travel history.

The tougher environment is also influencing destination choices. More Nigerians are turning to countries where visa approvals are perceived to be more attainable, provided applicants can demonstrate sufficient financial capacity and present strong documentation.

“I think most countries still offer a 70 to 80 per cent chance of getting a visa, depending on the quality of your documents and your financial status,” Chimaobi revealed.

She identified the United Kingdom as one of the destinations with relatively stronger approval prospects, although she cautioned that British authorities have also hardened their assessment processes in recent months.

France and other countries within the Schengen area, once considered more accessible to Nigerian travellers, have become increasingly selective, especially toward first-time applicants, she added.

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“Before now, France used to issue visas more easily, but most Schengen countries have become difficult over time, particularly for first-time travellers,” Chimaobi said.

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Petrol imports crash by N2tn to N87bn; see why

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Nigeria’s spending on the importation of Premium Motor Spirit, popularly known as petrol, plunged by over 96 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, marking a dramatic shift in the country’s fuel supply landscape and signaling the growing impact of local refining capacity.

Latest foreign trade statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday showed that only N87.401bn was spent on the importation of Motor Spirit Ordinary, the official trade classification for petrol, between January and March 2026.

The figure represents a sharp decline of N2.184tn, or 96.15 per cent, compared to the N2.271tn spent on petrol imports during the corresponding period of 2025. The development is particularly significant as petrol, which had consistently ranked among Nigeria’s most imported commodities for years, was completely absent from the list of the country’s top traded products in the first quarter of 2026.

An analysis of the NBS data by our correspondent showed that petrol did not feature among the top 19 traded products with the rest of the world, Africa, or West Africa during the review period.

Instead, the leading traded products included crude petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, gas oil, durum wheat, machines for reception, conversion and transmission of data, used vehicles, motorcycles, agricultural seeders, medicaments, aircraft parts, butanes, petroleum bitumen, sugar cane, herbicides and fuel additives.

The report read, “The value of total imports stood at N13,619.33bn in the first quarter of 2026, representing a 18.17 per cent decrease from the value recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2025 (N16,644.42bn) and a 21.05 per cent decrease compared to the value recorded in Q4 2025 (N17,250.93bn).

“Analysis of Nigeria’s import trade reveals that China remained the leading source of imports in the first quarter of 2026, followed by the United States of America, India, Germany, and the United Arab Emirates. The most imported commodities during the quarter were petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals (crude), gas oil, durum wheat, machines for the reception, conversion, and transmission of voice, images, or data, and used vehicles with diesel or semi-diesel engines.

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“The value of other oil products imported in Q1 2026 stood at N748.10bn, reflecting an 85.05 per cent decrease from N5,005.22bn in Q1 2025 and an 81.38 per cent decrease from N4,018.31bn recorded in Q4 2025.”

The latest import figure is also the lowest quarterly amount spent on petrol imports since at least 2022, according to available trade records reviewed by our correspondent.

Data from previous years showed that Nigeria spent N2.694tn on petrol imports in the first quarter of 2022. The import bill declined by N661bn, or 24.5 per cent, to N2.033tn in the corresponding period of 2023.

However, petrol import spending surged by N1.780tn in 2024 to N3.813tn, representing an increase of 87.6 per cent year-on-year. The figure later dropped by N1.542tn, or 40.4 per cent, to N2.271tn in the first quarter of 2025 before plunging by a massive N2.184tn, or 96.15 per cent, to N87.401bn in the first quarter of 2026.

The latest figure means that for every N100 spent on petrol imports in the first quarter of 2025, only about N4 was spent during the same period in 2026. The NBS data also highlighted the changing structure of Nigeria’s petrol import trade profile over the years.

According to the report, the total trade value involving the petroleum product stood at N7.705tn in 2022. This declined marginally by N194bn, or 2.5 per cent, to N7.511tn in 2023.

Trade value, however, more than doubled in 2024, rising by N7.907tn, or 105.3 per cent, to N15.418tn, the highest level during the period under review. The figure subsequently fell by N5.045tn, or 32.7 per cent, to N10.373tn in 2025, reflecting changing trade dynamics in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.

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The PUNCH reports that the sharp reduction in petrol imports reflects the increasing contribution of domestic refining facilities to fuel supply, reducing Nigeria’s dependence on foreign suppliers and helping conserve foreign exchange.

For decades, Nigeria relied heavily on imported petrol despite being Africa’s largest crude oil producer, owing largely to the poor performance of state-owned refineries and inadequate domestic refining capacity.

The trend began to change following investments in local refining and the gradual increase in output from domestic refineries, which have reduced the need for large-scale fuel imports.

The sharp decline in petrol imports in the first quarter of 2026 comes amid growing domestic refining capacity, particularly from the operations of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which began supplying petrol to the Nigerian market in 2024.

For decades, Nigeria relied heavily on imported Premium Motor Spirit despite being Africa’s largest crude oil producer. The country’s state-owned refineries operated far below capacity for years, forcing marketers and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company to spend trillions of naira annually importing fuel to meet domestic demand.

The commissioning of the 650,000 barrels-per-day refinery in Lekki, Lagos, marked a turning point in the downstream petroleum sector. Since commencing petrol production, the refinery has steadily increased output, supplying marketers, industrial users and fuel distributors across the country.

In January, the Nigerian Midstream Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority reported that Dangote refinery supplied an average of 40.1 million litres of petrol daily, accounting for 61.78 per cent of Nigeria’s petrol supply. Imported fuel contributed 24.8 million litres per day during the month.

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It increased significantly in February as imports collapsed. The refinery supplied about 36.5 million litres per day, while imports dropped to roughly 3.1 million litres per day, meaning locally refined fuel accounted for more than 92 per cent of national supply.

According to the NMDPRA March fact sheet, Dangote remained the sole domestic supplier of petrol, supplying 34.2 million litres per day. Imports rose slightly to 5.9 million litres daily, bringing total supply to about 40.1 million litres per day.

Supply rebounded strongly in April. Dangote supplied 40.7 million litres per day to the domestic market, while imports declined further to 3.7 million litres daily. Total petrol supply stood at 44.4 million litres per day, giving the refinery a market share of approximately 92 per cent of locally consumed fuel and about 80–92 per cent of overall supply, depending on the methodology used.

The disappearance of petrol from the list of top imported products is expected to strengthen arguments that local refining is beginning to alter Nigeria’s trade patterns, lower import dependence and reshape the country’s foreign exchange requirements.

The sustained reductions in fuel imports could improve Nigeria’s trade balance, reduce pressure on the naira and retain more value within the domestic economy, provided local production continues to meet demand.

The first-quarter data therefore represents one of the clearest indications yet of a major shift in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, with petrol imports falling to levels not seen in more than four years.

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Nigerian workers deserve a living wage; read details

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THIS is a debate that never goes away for too long: what is due to Nigerian workers? The renewed agitation over workers’ wages, triggered by a fresh Nigeria Governors’ Forum proposal to raise the national minimum wage to N100,000 per month, only confirms that the country is trapped in an endless cycle of wage adjustments that inflation quickly renders meaningless.

This means that the issue is not just about the size of the minimum wage. Rather, it is about whether Nigerian workers can afford to live with dignity.

That is why the conversation must shift from a statutory minimum wage to a genuine living-wage regime – and a stable economy.

The proposal by the Chairman of the NGF, Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, has already been rejected by organised labour.

The Nigeria Labour Congress, through its spokesman, Benson Upah, dismissed N100,000 as grossly inadequate and argued that, given current realities, a realistic wage would be closer to N1 million per month!

The Federal Workers Forum also condemned the proposal as a “Greek gift,” insisting that it bears little relationship to prevailing economic conditions.

While the NLC’s N1 million demand may appear excessive to many, the underlying argument deserves serious attention.

The current N70,000 minimum wage approved in July 2024 has already been overtaken by inflation. Like every previous wage increase in Nigeria’s history, its real value has been rapidly eroded.

The country’s minimum wage trajectory elucidates this. It rose from N18,000 in 2011 to N30,000 in 2019 and then to N70,000 in 2024. Yet each increase was followed by soaring inflation that wiped out most of the gains.

It is alleged that some states have yet to implement the minimum wage for grassroots workers, local government employees and primary school teachers.

Dataphyte estimates that the real value of the previous N30,000 wage had collapsed to barely N11,708 by mid-2024. The current N70,000 wage is clearly following the same path.

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The CBN reported that workers lost N2.79 trillion in purchasing power in 2024 alone due to inflation. That explains why workers who celebrated the 133 per cent wage increase in 2024 now find themselves struggling to survive less than two years later.

Nothing illustrates the crisis more vividly than the National Bureau of Statistics and Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition Cost of a Healthy Diet data.

According to an analysis by The Whistler, a healthy diet for one adult now costs an average of N1,541 per day or N46,230 per month, excluding meal preparation costs.

This means that a worker earning N70,000 is left with just N23,770 after feeding only himself.

For an average Nigerian household of 5.06 persons, the monthly cost of a healthy diet rises to N233,923 — equivalent to 334 per cent of the current minimum wage.

In other words, the average worker cannot afford the minimum nutritional requirements recommended by global health standards.

Even the governors’ proposed N100,000 wage would still leave most families far below the subsistence level. It is therefore difficult to dispute labour’s argument that Nigeria’s wage structure has become detached from economic reality.

However, raising wages alone cannot solve the problem.

The organised private sector has raised legitimate concerns about its ability to pay across the board.

The president of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Leye Kupoluyi, said the private sector should not be compelled to pay the same wage level as the government if businesses could not afford it.

The Director-General of the Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association, Adewale Oyerinde, points out that the process for arriving at a National Minimum Wage is “rooted in widely acclaimed tripartite negotiations and consultation and not just political statements, without any empirical data to back up the quantum of increase.”

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise warned that many businesses are already struggling under crushing energy costs, logistics bottlenecks, foreign exchange challenges, multiple taxation and weak consumer demand. All this needs to be addressed.

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Indeed, any wage increase that is unsupported by productivity growth and economic reforms risks fuelling another inflationary spiral. Businesses facing higher wage bills often pass costs to consumers, thereby worsening the very inflation the wage increase seeks to offset.

Nigeria must therefore avoid the false choice between workers’ welfare and business survival.

The real objective should be a living-wage framework tied to measurable economic indicators and supported by aggressive cost-of-living reduction policies.

This is the model increasingly adopted across many countries. In South Africa, the national minimum wage is approximately 28.79 rand per hour, translating to well over N250,000 monthly at prevailing exchange rates.

Algeria’s minimum wage is around 20,000 dinars (N204,000) monthly, while Egypt recently increased its public-sector minimum wage to 7,000 Egyptian pounds (N184,000).

Kenya’s minimum wage varies by sector and location, but the average of 16,113 Kenyan Shillings (N169,500) remains significantly higher in purchasing power terms than Nigeria’s.

Nigeria should not be setting wage policy as though inflation were a temporary inconvenience.

Food inflation remains the principal driver of household hardship, standing at 16.06 per cent YoY and higher than headline inflation of 15.69 per cent as of April.

Massive investments in agricultural productivity, rural roads, storage infrastructure and security in farming communities are urgently needed.

The absurd situation where healthy diets are more expensive in some rural communities than in urban centres because of poor roads must end.

The government must also address transport costs through investments in rail, inland waterways and public transportation systems.

Electricity tariffs remain a major burden on both households and businesses. Lowering energy costs would immediately improve living standards while enhancing business competitiveness.

Investments in health by ramping up health insurance enrolment and better access to quality care, and in education, via massive infrastructure improvements and teacher recruitment, will reduce household expenditure on these essentials.

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Furthermore, labour’s argument regarding improved government revenues deserves scrutiny.

Since the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, higher oil prices have boosted Nigeria’s earnings. It is estimated that the windfall has added more than N5 trillion to government coffers.

Whether that figure is an exaggeration or not, governments are receiving historically high FAAC allocations, averaging over a 50 per cent surge for states in 2025 and all tiers sharing up to N2 trillion in 2026.

Nigerians deserve to see some direct benefit from these gains through targeted subsidies for food production and transportation, public transit and essential services.

More fundamentally, wage determination should no longer depend on sporadic political negotiations every few years.

The National Minimum Wage Act should be amended to provide for automatic annual adjustments linked to inflation, productivity and cost-of-living indicators. Such a mechanism would prevent workers from suffering prolonged erosion of purchasing power before the government responds.

Above all, policymakers must remember that they are insulated from the hardships confronting ordinary citizens.

Governors, legislators, political appointees and senior public officials enjoy humongous allowances, subsidised accommodation, official vehicles, security details and generous expense accounts.

They do not queue for transport. They do not worry about school fees after buying food. They do not feel inflation in the same way as the average worker.

That disconnect explains why debates over N70,000, N100,000 or even N1 million often miss the central issue.

The goal of wage policy is not simply to keep workers alive so that the job is done. It is to ensure that honest labour can provide a decent standard of living.

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