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Oil earnings fall short by N16.2tn

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Despite an improvement in crude oil production, the Federal Government earned 63.49 per cent less than its projected oil revenue target in the first half of 2025, according to the second quarter Budget Performance Report released by the Budget Office on Monday.

The report showed that gross oil revenue of N9.32tn was recorded between January and June 2025, far below the N25.52tn pro-rated budget projection for the period. This translated into a N16.20tn shortfall, underscoring the persistent fragility of Nigeria’s oil-dependent fiscal structure.

Data from the report also indicated that average crude oil production stood at 1.68 million barrels per day, below the budget benchmark of 2.12mbpd, with significant revenue implications for the Federation Account.

However, output improved marginally compared with earlier periods, rising by 0.08mbpd from the 1.6mbpd recorded in the first quarter of 2025 and by 0.27mbpd above the 1.41mbpd produced in the corresponding period of 2024.

Despite missing its revenue target, the half-year performance marked a notable improvement year-on-year, as oil revenue increased by N2.78tn, or 42.59 per cent, compared with the actual half-year earnings recorded in 2024.

The report read, “Gross oil revenue amounting to N9.32tn was collected in the first half of 2025 as against N25.52tn prorate budget projection for the period. This denotes a decrease of N16.20tn (63.49 per cent) from the 2025 half-year budget estimate. It, however, reflects an increase of N2.78tn (42.59 per cent) from the actual half-year gross oil revenue performance reported in 2024.”

Crude oil has remained Nigeria’s single most important source of foreign exchange and public revenue for over five decades, accounting for about 80–90 per cent of export earnings and more than half of government revenue in most fiscal years.

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Earnings from crude oil exports largely determine the country’s foreign exchange inflows, the strength of the naira, and the volume of funds available for distribution to the federal, state, and local governments through the Federation Account Allocation Committee.

These revenues are highly sensitive to international oil prices, production volumes, exchange rates, and fiscal terms, making government income vulnerable to external shocks.

Despite its dominance, Nigeria’s reliance on oil has exposed the economy to repeated fiscal stress during periods of price crashes or production disruptions. Challenges such as crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, underinvestment, operational inefficiencies, and regulatory uncertainty have often constrained output and revenue performance, even when global oil prices are favourable.

A detailed breakdown of the figures revealed mixed outcomes across revenue lines. Concessional rentals surged to N24.82bn, exceeding the half-year projection of N2.06bn by N22.77bn (1,106.99 per cent), while miscellaneous oil revenue, including pipeline fees, rose to N29.73bn, beating its N11.72bn projection by N18.01bn (153.65 per cent).

In contrast, the major oil revenue streams significantly underperformed. Crude oil and gas sales generated N712.57bn, falling short of the N2.36tn target by N1.64tn (69.76 per cent). Petroleum Profit and Gas Taxes yielded N4.16tn, missing the projection of N15.69tn by N11.53tn (73.47 per cent).

Similarly, oil and gas royalties stood at N3.53tn, lower than the N6.86tn estimate by N3.33tn (48.54 per cent), while incidental oil revenue, including royalty recoveries and marginal field licences, came in at N438.90bn, undershooting its N591.76bn projection by N152.87bn (25.83 per cent).

The report also noted that gas flaring penalties and exchange gains, which had no half-year budget projections, contributed N267.25bn and N148.31bn, respectively, during the period under review.

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According to the Budget Office, oil revenue performance in the second quarter of 2025 improved compared with 2024 levels, largely due to higher crude output and improved collection of petroleum profit tax and royalties. Non-oil revenues also posted gains, attributed mainly to inflationary pressures and increased economic activities.

On pricing, Nigeria’s crude averaged $74 per barrel in Q2 2025, representing a marginal decline of $0.98 per barrel (1.31 per cent) from Q1 2025 and a sharper drop of $10.76 per barrel (12.69 per cent) compared with the corresponding quarter of 2024. The figure was also $1 below the $75 per barrel benchmark set in the 2025 budget.

Although production improved from 1.6mbpd in Q1 2025 and 1.41mbpd in the same period of 2024, the report highlighted that Nigeria’s oil sector continues to face deep-seated challenges, including crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, weak security, underinvestment in infrastructure, regulatory uncertainty, and limited domestic refining capacity.

In the second quarter alone, gross oil revenue stood at N4.77tn, representing a N7.99tn (62.62 per cent) shortfall from the N12.76tn quarterly projection. Nonetheless, this was N1.59tn (33.33 per cent) higher than the N3.18tn recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024.

On the non-oil side, gross non-oil revenue of N4.46tn was recorded in Q2, reflecting an increase of N404.26bn (6.68 per cent) above estimates. After deductions, the net distributable revenue available to the three tiers of government stood at N9.85tn, representing a shortfall of N7.01tn (41.58 per cent).

The figures reinforce ongoing concerns about Nigeria’s fiscal vulnerability amid oil market volatility, production shortfalls, and structural weaknesses, despite reforms introduced under the Petroleum Industry Act.

The report added that Nigeria’s oil sector continues to grapple with deep-seated challenges, including persistent crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and inadequate security, which have contributed to production shortfalls and supply disruptions. It noted that underinvestment in modern technology and infrastructure, corruption and regulatory uncertainties, as well as the country’s heavy reliance on crude oil exports, have continued to expose public finances to market volatility.

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It further highlighted concerns over limited domestic refining capacity, environmental degradation arising from gas flaring, and weaknesses in the fiscal and policy framework, despite the enactment of the Petroleum Industry Act. According to the report, sustained efforts to resolve legacy production issues and deepen reforms across key sectors of the economy remain critical to economic recovery and revenue stability.

Last week, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, opened up on Tuesday that the Federal Government recorded a significant revenue shortfall in the 2025 fiscal year. He noted that while the Federal Government projected N40.8tn revenue for this year, it ended up making only N10.7tn.

Edun made the disclosure while appearing before the House of Representatives Committees on Finance and National Planning during an interactive session on the 2026–2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper.

He recalled that the Federal Government had projected a revenue target of N40.8tn in 2025 to fund the N54.9tn “budget of restoration,” designed to stabilise the economy, secure peace, and lay the foundation for long-term prosperity. However, the minister said current fiscal performance shows that total revenue for the year is likely to end at about N10.7tn.

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Ogun begins N6bn fund disbursement to 3,855 women groups

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The Ogun State Government, in partnership with the Federal Government and the World Bank, has begun disbursing N6 billion from the Community Investment Fund to 3,855 women affinity groups across four local government areas under the Nigeria for Women Programme Scale-Up.

The intervention is aimed at expanding women-led businesses, strengthening household livelihoods and increasing women’s participation in economic activities.

Speaking at the flag-off ceremony in Ijebu-Ode, Governor Dapo Abiodun, represented by the immediate-past Commissioner for Women Affairs and Social Development, Motunrayo Adeleye, said the fund was designed to enable women to move from subsistence activities to sustainable enterprises.

“Today, we gather not merely to mark the disbursement of a fund, but to celebrate another important step in our deliberate journey of empowering women, strengthening families and expanding opportunities for sustainable livelihoods.

“The beneficiary groups have demonstrated their readiness for the intervention by meeting key programme requirements, including regular participation, savings and internal lending, opening bank accounts and preparing Micro-Investment Plans.”

He disclosed that the women had collectively saved N2.6bn in the past seven months, while loans accessed through the groups had risen to more than N4bn.

According to him, the figures demonstrated the financial discipline, trust and commitment developed by the WAGs.

“These figures are more than statistics; they are compelling evidence of the financial discipline, trust, commitment and readiness that the Women Affinity Groups have developed under the programme,” he said.

The governor clarified that the N6bn CIF was not an outright grant but a sustainable revolving financing facility designed to provide capital for establishing and expanding businesses, creating employment and improving household welfare.

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He explained that the intervention was an extension of the Nigeria for Women Project, which commenced in the state in December 2020, following the signing of the project between the World Bank and the Federal Government in 2018.

Abiodun said the parent project established 3,792 WAGs across 1,003 communities in Odeda, Ikenne, Ijebu North-East and Yewa North Local Government Areas.

He added that 368 Ward Facilitators were trained and deployed, while 67,094 women beneficiaries received individual grants in April 2022.

According to him, the Scale-Up phase has expanded to seven local government areas— Ifo, Ado-Odo/Ota, Ijebu-Ode, Sagamu, Abeokuta North, Ipokia and Remo North.

He said 5,394 WAGs had been formed under the scale-up phase, reaching 124,062 women as of September 21, 2026.

“The programme has also covered 3,489 communities, with 664 trained ward facilitators, while about 26 states have visited Ogun to study its model and the World Bank has adopted the state as a training hub,” Abiodun stated.

The governor said the WAG model went beyond providing access to finance, noting that it also incorporated financial literacy, savings, responsible borrowing, collective accountability, business and entrepreneurial skills, gender awareness and life skills.

He added that beneficiaries were also being exposed to opportunities relating to health insurance, climate adaptation, strategic partnerships and National Identification Number enrolment.

“In other words, the programme is building not only businesses, but knowledgeable, financially disciplined and economically resilient women,” he said.

Abiodun reaffirmed his administration’s commitment to providing the policy support and institutional collaboration required to complement the intervention, while appreciating the World Bank, Federal Project Coordinating Unit and other partners for their support.

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Also speaking, the Minister of Women Affairs, Hajiya Imaan Sulaiman-Ibrahim, represented by her Special Assistant on Technical Management, Jummaih Idonije, described the initiative as a strategic economic intervention consistent with the Renewed Hope Agenda of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

She said expanding women’s economic opportunities remained central to inclusive national development.

The minister commended Ogun State for its leadership in implementing the programme, urging the beneficiaries to sustain the momentum and serve as models to other WAGs across the participating local government areas.

The World Bank Task Team Manager, Michael Ilesanmi, said the programme was helping to bridge financial access gaps for women while strengthening their capacity to withstand economic pressures.

The Commissioner for Finance and Chief Economic Adviser to the Governor and Chairman of the Multi-Sectoral Committee of the NFWP-SU, Dapo Okubadejo, said the intervention underscored the importance of deliberate investment in women.

Okubadejo, who was represented by the Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Women Affairs and Social Development, Adebimpe Obienu, noted that women played significant roles as traders, farmers, processors, artisans, entrepreneurs and community builders.

He commended the World Bank, Federal Ministry of Women Affairs and other stakeholders for their contributions to the implementation of the programme, while acknowledging the support of community leaders in ensuring its acceptance at the grassroots.

Some beneficiaries, including Oyesanya Omotoke of Irede WAG in Sagamu, Ayomide Ogunleye of Ifeoluwa WAG in Ijebu-Ode and Adesola Teriba, Chairperson of Success WAG in Abeokuta North, expressed appreciation for the intervention.

They said the fund would help women strengthen their businesses and improve their livelihoods, while commending the WAG model for promoting savings, internal lending, financial discipline and collective responsibility.

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Source: punchng.com

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Shipowners urge Dangote to support local fleet

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Indigenous shipowners have called on major cargo owners, including the Dangote Group, among others, to support local fleet development by offering long-term Contracts of Affreightment for petroleum products, cement, fertiliser and other bulk cargoes.

The shipowners said cargo is the foundation of shipping, and predictable cargo contracts are what make vessel financing and acquisition possible.

The call was made by a former Nigeria Chapter President of the African Shipowners Association and Group Managing Director of Seamate Maritime Integrated Services Limited, Capt. Ladi Olubowale, at a Public-Private Dialogue with CEOs organised by the Nigerian Chamber of Shipping in Lagos recently.

The dialogue, themed ‘Unlocking efficiency in the marine and blue economy value chain’, brought together industry stakeholders, including Mr Edwin Devakumar, Group Vice President of Dangote Group (Oil and Gas), as guest CEO.

Olubowale explained that Nigeria’s maritime strategy must move beyond debates about vessel ownership to “creating commercial conditions that make indigenous vessel acquisition bankable.”

“Give credible Nigerian shipowners long-term Contracts of Affreightment, and those contracts become the commercial foundation upon which vessels can be financed, acquired and deployed,” Olubowale said.

Olubowale argued that shipping is capital-intensive and Nigerian owners cannot sustainably acquire large vessels without guaranteed cargo volumes and bankable employment contracts.

He said Dangote, with its refinery, cement and fertiliser operations generating huge maritime cargo volumes, is well placed to catalyse local fleet growth by allocating portions of its cargo requirements to qualified indigenous operators under multi-year CoAs.

Such contracts, he noted, would enable Nigerian shipowners to approach banks, development finance institutions, export credit agencies and international financiers with identifiable cargo and predictable revenue.

Olubowale also raised concern over the dominance of foreign-controlled vessels in lifting Nigerian crude from terminals at Forcados, Bonny and Escravos, earning huge freight revenues from Nigerian cargo.

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He said the policy question should be how to convert the movement of Nigerian cargo into domestic assets, jobs, technical capacity and long-term economic value.

“There is no structural reason why Nigerian companies should not ultimately own and operate Suezmax tankers and other large commercial vessels. But fleet development must be connected to cargo, finance, technical capability and long-term employment,” he said.

He advocated a four-pillar model for fleet development — Cargo, Contract, Finance and Vessel — where cargo owners provide volumes, CoAs create bankable contracts, financiers fund vessel acquisition, and Nigerian owners provide vessels and services.

According to him, the model would complement, not replace, government interventions like the Cabotage Vessel Financing Fund.

Olubowale stressed that the government’s role should be that of enabler, regulator and facilitator, while the private sector drives the commercial engine.

“Nigeria’s ambition to build a globally competitive marine and blue economy will require deeper collaboration between cargo owners, indigenous shipowners, banks, investors, ports regulators and government,” he said.

He added that as intra-African trade grows under the African Continental Free Trade Area, maritime transport will become even more critical, and Nigeria must deliberately use its huge cargo base to build a sustainable indigenous shipping industry.

“The maritime industry must ultimately be driven by the private sector. If we connect Nigerian cargo to Nigerian maritime capacity, we will not merely acquire ships — we will build a sustainable shipping industry,” he said.

Source: punchng.com

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Electricity subsidy may hit N2tn amid tariff freeze

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The Federal Government may spend about N2 trillion to subsidise electricity this year as it maintains its position against an immediate increase in electricity tariffs.

The Minister of Power, Joseph Tegbe, disclosed the government’s position on electricity tariffs at a media parley in Abuja on Monday while marking his first 100 days in office.

“There are no immediate plans to increase electricity tariffs. Our goal is to build a commercially viable power sector while protecting vulnerable consumers,” Tegbe said.

The minister’s position comes against the backdrop of the N1.93tn electricity subsidy incurred by the Federal Government in 2025, according to the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission’s 2025 Annual Report.

NERC said the subsidy obligation represented 57.44 per cent of the total Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading invoice during the year and averaged N160.69bn monthly.

The commission said the government incurred the subsidy because allowed electricity tariffs remained below cost-reflective levels, with the Federal Government covering the resulting gap.

“In the absence of cost-reflective tariffs, the government undertakes to cover the resultant gap (between the cost-reflective and allowed tariff) in the form of tariff subsidies.

“It is important to note that due to the absence of cost-reflective tariffs across all DisCos, the government incurred a subsidy obligation of N1.93tn (57.44 per cent of total NBET invoice) during the year,” the commission said.

With the government maintaining that there are no immediate plans to increase tariffs, the subsidy burden could remain around the N2tn level this year. The subsidy burden neared N2tn in 2024 and 2025 despite the Band A to E tariff categorisation introduced in 2024.

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Aside from Band A customers who pay the real cost of electricity, customers on other bands still enjoy government subsidies, which are now close to N2tn.

Earlier, electricity generation companies questioned the effectiveness of the Federal Government’s N4tn Presidential Power Sector Debt Reduction Programme, warning that fresh liabilities estimated at over N7tn could accumulate before the programme is fully implemented.

The power producers, under the aegis of the Association of Power Generation Companies, said that while they were not opposed to the Federal Government’s plan to raise bonds to settle outstanding obligations, the initiative would not provide a lasting solution to the liquidity crisis in the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry because debts continue to accumulate monthly.

“Every month, the DisCos are not paying 100 per cent. NBET is not paying 100 per cent. The N4tn legacy debt is until December 2024. So, how about the accumulation for 2025? And what is already accumulated for 2026? So by the time you finish issuing this N4tn bond over seven years, by 2033, two times what you’re going to pay would have accumulated. So what is your plan?” the APGC Chief Executive, Joy Ogaji, asked the question.

Ogaji also called on the Federal Government to adopt a more sustainable approach to electricity subsidies, arguing that the current subsidy arrangement exists largely on paper because there is no corresponding budgetary provision.

“One of the sustainable ways is for the Federal Government to acknowledge the fact that they cannot subsidise the power market. Because you can see it’s only on paper that the government is subsidising power. It’s not in the budget.

“There is no monetary provision anywhere for subsidies, not even in the supplementary budget; it’s nowhere. It’s just being. You said you would pay. We have not seen it,” she stressed.

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The CEO proposed that the government should clearly define the level of subsidy it could afford and make budgetary provisions for it instead of maintaining a blanket subsidy policy that has contributed to mounting debts across the electricity value chain.

Speaking on Monday, the minister said the administration was working to address the sector’s long-standing debt, revenue leakages, metering gaps and infrastructure constraints.

He said his first 100 days, covering June 8 to September 16, had largely focused on diagnosing the problems across the electricity value chain, stabilising existing infrastructure and restoring market discipline.

According to him, gas supply to power plants was constrained by damaged pipelines and commercial conditions that discouraged investment, while ageing equipment, deferred maintenance and stalled projects prevented available capacity from reaching consumers.

He said the sector was also weakened by poor payment discipline, with generation companies receiving only 27 per cent of their bills.

“When President Bola Tinubu entrusted me with the responsibility of serving as Minister of Power, I made four promises to Nigerians. I promised a disciplined approach to solving the sector’s problems. I promised to pursue grid stability through structured, strategic reforms. I promised visible incremental improvements.

“Upon assuming office, the diagnosis we undertook at the onset revealed constraints at every segment of the electricity value chain. Gas supply to power stations was limited by damaged pipelines and commercial terms that discouraged investment.

“Our generation fleet was heavily dependent on thermal plants, with ageing equipment, deferred maintenance, stalled projects, and capacity unable to reach consumers. The sector diagnosis revealed payment of only 27 per cent of generation companies’ bills, undermining their ability to maintain plants and pay gas suppliers,” Tegbe stated.

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The minister said transmission infrastructure was similarly under pressure from vandalised towers and lines, overstretched equipment and frequent system tripping.

NERC explained in its 2025 report that, under the subsidy regime, the government covers the gap between the cost-reflective and allowed tariffs through tariff subsidies.

The regulator said the subsidy is applied to the generation cost payable by DisCos to NBET, while the portion of generation costs not covered by the DisCos is invoiced to the Federal Ministry of Finance for settlement.

It said the framework was introduced partly to prevent unpaid subsidy debts from accumulating on the balance sheets of DisCos and limiting their ability to raise finance for critical investments in their networks.

The N1.93tn subsidy obligation recorded in 2025 highlights the financial cost of keeping electricity tariffs below the cost of supplying power.

For 2026, the government’s decision not to immediately raise tariffs means it will continue to bear a significant portion of the cost of electricity while efforts are made to improve collections, infrastructure, gas supply and service delivery.

Source: punchng.com

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