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Oil earnings fall short by N16.2tn

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Despite an improvement in crude oil production, the Federal Government earned 63.49 per cent less than its projected oil revenue target in the first half of 2025, according to the second quarter Budget Performance Report released by the Budget Office on Monday.

The report showed that gross oil revenue of N9.32tn was recorded between January and June 2025, far below the N25.52tn pro-rated budget projection for the period. This translated into a N16.20tn shortfall, underscoring the persistent fragility of Nigeria’s oil-dependent fiscal structure.

Data from the report also indicated that average crude oil production stood at 1.68 million barrels per day, below the budget benchmark of 2.12mbpd, with significant revenue implications for the Federation Account.

However, output improved marginally compared with earlier periods, rising by 0.08mbpd from the 1.6mbpd recorded in the first quarter of 2025 and by 0.27mbpd above the 1.41mbpd produced in the corresponding period of 2024.

Despite missing its revenue target, the half-year performance marked a notable improvement year-on-year, as oil revenue increased by N2.78tn, or 42.59 per cent, compared with the actual half-year earnings recorded in 2024.

The report read, “Gross oil revenue amounting to N9.32tn was collected in the first half of 2025 as against N25.52tn prorate budget projection for the period. This denotes a decrease of N16.20tn (63.49 per cent) from the 2025 half-year budget estimate. It, however, reflects an increase of N2.78tn (42.59 per cent) from the actual half-year gross oil revenue performance reported in 2024.”

Crude oil has remained Nigeria’s single most important source of foreign exchange and public revenue for over five decades, accounting for about 80–90 per cent of export earnings and more than half of government revenue in most fiscal years.

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Earnings from crude oil exports largely determine the country’s foreign exchange inflows, the strength of the naira, and the volume of funds available for distribution to the federal, state, and local governments through the Federation Account Allocation Committee.

These revenues are highly sensitive to international oil prices, production volumes, exchange rates, and fiscal terms, making government income vulnerable to external shocks.

Despite its dominance, Nigeria’s reliance on oil has exposed the economy to repeated fiscal stress during periods of price crashes or production disruptions. Challenges such as crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, underinvestment, operational inefficiencies, and regulatory uncertainty have often constrained output and revenue performance, even when global oil prices are favourable.

A detailed breakdown of the figures revealed mixed outcomes across revenue lines. Concessional rentals surged to N24.82bn, exceeding the half-year projection of N2.06bn by N22.77bn (1,106.99 per cent), while miscellaneous oil revenue, including pipeline fees, rose to N29.73bn, beating its N11.72bn projection by N18.01bn (153.65 per cent).

In contrast, the major oil revenue streams significantly underperformed. Crude oil and gas sales generated N712.57bn, falling short of the N2.36tn target by N1.64tn (69.76 per cent). Petroleum Profit and Gas Taxes yielded N4.16tn, missing the projection of N15.69tn by N11.53tn (73.47 per cent).

Similarly, oil and gas royalties stood at N3.53tn, lower than the N6.86tn estimate by N3.33tn (48.54 per cent), while incidental oil revenue, including royalty recoveries and marginal field licences, came in at N438.90bn, undershooting its N591.76bn projection by N152.87bn (25.83 per cent).

The report also noted that gas flaring penalties and exchange gains, which had no half-year budget projections, contributed N267.25bn and N148.31bn, respectively, during the period under review.

See also  NNPC April crude supplies to Dangote cross 1bn barrels

According to the Budget Office, oil revenue performance in the second quarter of 2025 improved compared with 2024 levels, largely due to higher crude output and improved collection of petroleum profit tax and royalties. Non-oil revenues also posted gains, attributed mainly to inflationary pressures and increased economic activities.

On pricing, Nigeria’s crude averaged $74 per barrel in Q2 2025, representing a marginal decline of $0.98 per barrel (1.31 per cent) from Q1 2025 and a sharper drop of $10.76 per barrel (12.69 per cent) compared with the corresponding quarter of 2024. The figure was also $1 below the $75 per barrel benchmark set in the 2025 budget.

Although production improved from 1.6mbpd in Q1 2025 and 1.41mbpd in the same period of 2024, the report highlighted that Nigeria’s oil sector continues to face deep-seated challenges, including crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, weak security, underinvestment in infrastructure, regulatory uncertainty, and limited domestic refining capacity.

In the second quarter alone, gross oil revenue stood at N4.77tn, representing a N7.99tn (62.62 per cent) shortfall from the N12.76tn quarterly projection. Nonetheless, this was N1.59tn (33.33 per cent) higher than the N3.18tn recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024.

On the non-oil side, gross non-oil revenue of N4.46tn was recorded in Q2, reflecting an increase of N404.26bn (6.68 per cent) above estimates. After deductions, the net distributable revenue available to the three tiers of government stood at N9.85tn, representing a shortfall of N7.01tn (41.58 per cent).

The figures reinforce ongoing concerns about Nigeria’s fiscal vulnerability amid oil market volatility, production shortfalls, and structural weaknesses, despite reforms introduced under the Petroleum Industry Act.

The report added that Nigeria’s oil sector continues to grapple with deep-seated challenges, including persistent crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and inadequate security, which have contributed to production shortfalls and supply disruptions. It noted that underinvestment in modern technology and infrastructure, corruption and regulatory uncertainties, as well as the country’s heavy reliance on crude oil exports, have continued to expose public finances to market volatility.

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It further highlighted concerns over limited domestic refining capacity, environmental degradation arising from gas flaring, and weaknesses in the fiscal and policy framework, despite the enactment of the Petroleum Industry Act. According to the report, sustained efforts to resolve legacy production issues and deepen reforms across key sectors of the economy remain critical to economic recovery and revenue stability.

Last week, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, opened up on Tuesday that the Federal Government recorded a significant revenue shortfall in the 2025 fiscal year. He noted that while the Federal Government projected N40.8tn revenue for this year, it ended up making only N10.7tn.

Edun made the disclosure while appearing before the House of Representatives Committees on Finance and National Planning during an interactive session on the 2026–2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper.

He recalled that the Federal Government had projected a revenue target of N40.8tn in 2025 to fund the N54.9tn “budget of restoration,” designed to stabilise the economy, secure peace, and lay the foundation for long-term prosperity. However, the minister said current fiscal performance shows that total revenue for the year is likely to end at about N10.7tn.

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NNPC April crude supplies to Dangote cross 1bn barrels

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Crude oil supply from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited’s trading arm surged in April 2026, with shipment records indicating that more than 1.03 million metric tonnes, equivalent to about 6.8 million barrels or over 1.08 billion litres, were delivered to the Dangote Oil and Gas Company Limited within the month.

An analysis of tanker vessel movements obtained by The PUNCH on Tuesday shows that the deliveries were executed through eight crude cargoes handled by NNPC Trading, reinforcing the state oil firm’s role as a major feedstock supplier to the 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote refinery.

The shipments, sourced from key Nigerian crude streams including Anyala, Bonga, Odudu, Forcados, Qua Iboe, and Utapate, were routed through the refinery’s Single Point Mooring systems, SPM-C1 and SPM-C2.

The document shows that out of the eight cargoes, five have been fully discharged, while three others are still awaiting berthing or completion, indicating a steady pipeline of crude inflows into the refinery.

This development comes amid the refinery’s continued complaints of supply inadequacies, with a total requirement of 19 cargoes monthly, and a recent report that the country imported 55.39 million barrels in January and February 2026.

A breakdown of the deliveries showed that Sonangol Kalandula initiated the supply chain, delivering 123,000 metric tonnes of crude from Anyala. The vessel arrived on April 5, berthed on April 8, and sailed on April 9.

This was followed by Advantage Spring, which supplied 128,190 metric tonnes from Bonga, arriving on April 11 and completing discharge by April 13.

See also  NNPC April crude supplies to Dangote cross 1bn barrels

Similarly, a vessel code-named Barbarosa delivered 125,000 metric tonnes from Odudu, while Sonangol Njinga Mban transported 129,089 metric tonnes from Bonga.

Another completed shipment, handled by Nordic Tellus, brought in 139,066 metric tonnes from Forcados, completing discharge on April 17.

However, three additional cargoes remain in progress. Advantage Sun, carrying 142,327 metric tonnes from Bonga, has arrived but is yet to berth. Also pending are Advantage Spring from Utapate with 120,189 metric tonnes, and Sonangol Kalandula from Qua Iboe with 126,471 metric tonnes.

In total, the NNPC Trading cargoes account for 1,033,332 metric tonnes of crude, underscoring what industry analysts describe as a “strong and sustained supply commitment” to the Dangote refinery.

Further findings show that, beyond crude deliveries, the Dangote refinery also received multiple shipments of refined products and blending components from international markets during the period.

Among them, Seaways Lonsdale delivered 37,400 metric tonnes of blendstock gasoline from Immingham, United Kingdom, handled by Vitol, between April 18 and 19.

Another vessel, Augenstern, supplied 37,125 metric tonnes of Premium Motor Spirit from Lavera, France, discharging between April 8 and 9.

From Norway, Emma Grace brought in 37,496 metric tonnes of PMS from Mongstad, while LVM Aaron delivered 36,323 metric tonnes from Lome, Togo.

Similarly, Egret discharged 35,498 metric tonnes of naphtha from Rotterdam between April 16 and 18, providing critical feedstock for gasoline blending.

A pending shipment, Mont Blanc I, carrying 36,877 metric tonnes of blendstock gasoline from Antwerp, Belgium, is yet to berth, while Aesop is expected to deliver 130,000 metric tonnes of residue catalytic oil from Singapore later in April.

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In addition to NNPC Trading volumes, other crude cargoes from international and domestic traders also supported refinery operations.

Notably, Yasa Hercules delivered 273,287 metric tonnes of crude from Corpus Christi, United States, while Front Orkla brought in 264,889 metric tonnes from Ingleside, US.

A major cargo, Navig8 Passion, supplied 496,330 metric tonnes of crude from Cameroon, highlighting regional supply integration.

Domestic contributions included Harmonic, which delivered nearly 993,240 barrels from Ugo Ocha, and Aura M, which supplied 1 million barrels from Escravos, alongside an additional 651,331 barrels of cargo from Anyala.

Operational data indicate that most vessels berthed within one to two days of arrival and departed shortly after discharge, suggesting improved efficiency at the refinery’s offshore terminals.

The Dangote refinery, located in Lekki, Lagos, is Africa’s largest single-train refinery, with a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.

The facility is expected to significantly reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products by refining domestic crude and supplying petrol, diesel, aviation fuel, and other derivatives to the local market.

NNPC Limited, through its trading arm, has remained a central player in supplying crude to the refinery under evolving commercial arrangements, amid ongoing reforms in Nigeria’s downstream oil sector.

Earlier this month, Africa’s richest man and President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, revealed in a report by Bloomberg that the refinery received 10 cargoes of crude oil from the state-owned oil firm in March, compared to an average of about five cargoes monthly since late 2024.

Dangote said the shipments included six cargoes paid for in naira and four in dollars, under the crude supply arrangement between the refinery and the NNPC.

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“Nigeria doubled crude supply to Dangote Refinery in March as Africa’s top oil producer moved to shore up fuel availability after the Iran war disrupted Middle East shipments. Last month, they gave us six cargoes with payments in naira and four cargoes with payments in dollars,” he stated.

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CBN, NCC to combat SIM-related fraud

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The Central Bank of Nigeria and the Nigerian Communications Commission on Monday signed a memorandum of understanding to tackle SIM-related fraud and strengthen consumer protection across Nigeria’s digital ecosystem.

The agreement, signed at the CBN headquarters in Abuja, aims to improve coordination between the financial and telecommunications sectors, focusing on combating electronic fraud linked to mobile numbers, enhancing payment system integrity, and protecting consumers.

Speaking at the event, the CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, said the pact was a “practical statement of national interest”, noting that the increasing reliance on digital channels for payments and financial services required stronger collaboration between both regulators.

He said, “This MoU is not merely an administrative document; it is a practical statement of national interest,” adding that the agreement would reinforce the stability and integrity of Nigeria’s payment system while supporting innovation and consumer safety.

Cardoso explained that the deal would strengthen coordination on approvals, technical standards, and innovation trials, including sandbox testing, to ensure that financial services remain reliable and scalable.

He noted that the partnership would also improve the response to rising electronic fraud, stressing that “addressing these threats requires joined-up action, shared intelligence, clearer escalation paths, stronger operational readiness across regulated entities, and consistent public education”.

A key component of the agreement is the rollout of the Telecom Identity Risk Management Portal, a data-sharing platform designed to detect fraud linked to recycled, swapped, or blacklisted phone numbers.

According to Cardoso, the platform would enable real-time verification of mobile number status across banks and fintech firms, providing an additional layer of protection for consumers and the financial system.

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He said strict compliance with data protection laws, including encryption and consent protocols, would guide the use of the platform.

Also speaking, the Executive Vice Chairman of the NCC, Aminu Maida, described the agreement as a major step in strengthening Nigeria’s digital economy.

He said, “The signing of this Memorandum of Understanding marks an important milestone in the regulatory stewardship of Nigeria’s digital economy,” adding that collaboration between both institutions was “not optional; it is imperative.”

Maida noted that the initiative would give financial institutions better visibility into the status of phone numbers used in transactions, including whether a line had been swapped, recycled, or flagged for fraudulent activity.

“This ensures that our financial services industry is better equipped with timely and relevant information to effectively combat e-fraud, particularly those perpetrated using phone numbers,” he said.

He added that the agreement would also improve consumer protection, assuring Nigerians that issues such as failed airtime recharges would be resolved more quickly under the new framework.

Earlier, the Director of Payment System Supervision at the CBN, Dr Rakiya Yusuf, said the partnership between both regulators had evolved over the years from separate oversight roles into a more integrated collaboration focused on securing Nigeria’s digital and financial systems.

She traced the relationship back to earlier efforts to align mobile payment regulations and telecom licensing frameworks, including the 2018 MoU that enabled telecom operators to participate in mobile money services through special purpose vehicles.

She also highlighted joint interventions such as the resolution of the USSD pricing dispute and the introduction of a N6.98 per session fee, as well as recent efforts to address failed transactions through a proposed 30-second refund framework.

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Under the new agreement, two joint committees will be established to drive implementation. These include the Joint Committee on Payment Systems and Consumer Protection and the Joint Committee on the telecom risk management platform.

The agreement is expected to deepen digital financial inclusion, reduce fraud risks, and strengthen trust in Nigeria’s rapidly expanding digital economy.

The PUNCH earlier reported that the CBN and the NCC unveiled a joint framework to tackle the growing problem of failed airtime and data transactions, which have left consumers frustrated after payments are processed but service delivery is not provided.

The 20-page draft, published on the CBN’s website, was developed by the CBN’s Consumer Protection & Financial Inclusion Department and the telecom regulator, with input from banks, mobile operators, payment providers, and other stakeholders.

The regulators seek to clarify accountability, standardise complaint-resolution timelines, and create a coordinated system for addressing grievances across the financial and telecommunications sectors.

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Electricity reforms: Rivers, Kano, 19 others delay takeover

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Twenty-one states, including Rivers and Kano, are yet to assume regulatory control of their electricity markets nearly three years after the enactment of the Electricity Act 2023, even as 15 states have already transitioned to independent market oversight.

The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission disclosed that the states that have completed the transition have established their own electricity regulatory frameworks and are now responsible for market development, investment attraction, tariff oversight, and customer protection within their jurisdictions.

According to the commission, the shift follows the decentralisation provisions of the Electricity Act 2023, which empower subnational governments to regulate electricity generation, transmission and distribution within their territories after completing the necessary legal and administrative processes.

NERC noted that 15 states have so far completed the transition to state-level regulation. These include Enugu, Ekiti, Ondo, Imo, Oyo, Edo, Kogi, Lagos, Ogun, Niger, Plateau, Abia, Nasarawa, Anambra and Bayelsa.

However, the remaining 21 states yet to assume regulatory control are Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Kwara, Osun, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe and Zamfara.

Industry analysts said the slow pace of transition in some states could delay the expected benefits of decentralisation, including improved power supply, localised tariff structures, and accelerated investments in embedded generation and mini-grid projects.

Under the new framework, once a state completes its transition, the state electricity regulator takes over licensing of intrastate electricity operations, enforcement of technical standards, tariff setting for local distribution, and protection of electricity consumers within the state.

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NERC, in turn, retains oversight only on interstate and national grid-related activities.

The commission emphasised that state regulators are expected to drive local electricity market growth by encouraging private sector participation, promoting renewable energy deployment, and ensuring service quality standards for distribution companies operating within their jurisdictions.

The timeline released by the commission shows that the earliest transitions occurred in October 2024, when Enugu and Ekiti states assumed regulatory authority, followed by Ondo shortly after. The pace accelerated in 2025, with several states, including Oyo, Edo, Lagos and Ogun, completing their transitions. The most recent additions include Nasarawa, Anambra and Bayelsa between January and February 2026.

It was observed, however, that some of the 15 states have not set up their regulatory commissions.

Power sector stakeholders argue that states yet to transition risk missing opportunities to attract investments in off-grid electrification projects, particularly in underserved rural communities.

They also note that state-level regulation could help address longstanding distribution challenges by enabling more flexible tariff structures, targeted subsidies, and enforcement mechanisms tailored to local conditions.

With less than half of the states having completed the transition, many argued that the effectiveness of the Electricity Act reforms will largely depend on how quickly the remaining states establish their regulatory institutions and operational frameworks.

Apparently overwhelmed by the country’s power woes, the Federal Government recently pushed the challenge to the 36 states, asking them to take over power generation, transmission, and distribution.

The Federal Government said this was the only solution to the power crisis in the country.

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The Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said at an energy summit in Lagos that the Electricity Act’s impact includes decentralisation and liberalisation.

“In a country as big as Nigeria, with almost a million square kilometres of landmass, over 200 million people, millions of businesses, thousands of institutions (health and educational institutions), 36 states plus the Federal Capital Territory, and 774 local governments—centralisation cannot work for us. The responsibility of providing stable electricity can never be left in the hands of the Federal Government.

“At the centre, you cannot, from Abuja, guarantee stable power across the country. So, this is one thing that the Act has achieved—decentralisation. That has now allowed all the states or the subnationals to play in all segments of the power sector value chain—generation, transmission, distribution, and even service industries supporting the power sector,” he stated.

He called on the remaining 21 states to set up their electricity market.

“I believe other states will follow suit in operationalising the autonomy granted, with full collaboration of the national regulator. We are working actively with these states to ensure strong alignment between the wholesale market and the retail market.

“In this regard, we believe the active involvement of the state governments, particularly in the off-grid segment, is critical, given the series of roundtable engagements held with governors by the Rural Electrification Agency, as well as ongoing efforts to closely track the distribution companies’ performances within their respective jurisdictions,” Adelabu emphasised.

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