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Nigeria suffers nearly N1tn export loss after Trump tariff

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Nigeria’s exports to the United States fell by N940.98bn in the first nine months of 2025, even as imports from America more than doubled, reversing the trade balance that favoured Nigeria a year earlier, findings from the National Bureau of Statistics’ foreign trade data have shown.

An analysis of the NBS figures for Q1–Q3 2024 and Q1–Q3 2025 showed that Nigeria exported goods worth N3.65tn to the US in the first nine months of 2025, down from N4.59tn recorded in the corresponding period of 2024, representing a decline of 20.5 per cent or N940.98bn.

Over the same nine-month period, Nigeria’s imports from the US rose sharply to N6.80tn from N3.01tn, an increase of 125.5 per cent or N3.78tn, indicating that Nigeria bought far more from the US than it sold to the market in 2025.

This left Nigeria with a trade deficit of about N3.15tn with the United States in the first nine months of 2025, compared with a trade surplus of N1.57tn in the corresponding period of 2024.

The deterioration coincided with Washington’s implementation of its “reciprocal” tariff regime, under which Donald Trump signed an executive order raising Nigeria’s tariff rate from 14 per cent to 15 per cent.

The order, issued late July, took effect on August 7, 2025. Although crude oil has been exempted in several cases, the higher duty applies directly to a wide range of non-oil Nigerian exports, creating uncertainty for American importers and dampening demand ahead of and after the effective date.

With crude oil exports largely exempted from the new tariff regime, non-oil exports appear to have borne the brunt of the disruption. In the first nine months of 2024, Nigeria’s exports to the US rose steadily quarter-on-quarter, from N1.31tn in Q1 to N1.59tn in Q2 and N1.69tn in Q3.

Imports, by contrast, remained relatively moderate at N1.01tn, N965.50bn, and N1.04tn respectively. This resulted in trade surpluses of N301.94bn in Q1, N620.99bn in Q2, and N649.71bn in Q3, culminating in a cumulative surplus of N1.57tn for the nine-month period.

That trend reversed sharply in 2025. Although exports opened the year at N1.54tn in Q1, they fell to N1.36tn in Q2 and then plunged to N743.63bn in Q3. Imports followed the opposite trajectory, rising from N1.42tn in Q1 to N2.16tn in Q2 and surging further to N3.22tn in Q3.

Quarter-on-quarter analysis showed that exports declined by 11.9 per cent between Q1 and Q2 2025, before collapsing by 45.3 per cent between Q2 and Q3. Imports, meanwhile, jumped by 51.8 per cent between Q1 and Q2 and rose by another 49.1 per cent between Q2 and Q3, rapidly widening Nigeria’s trade deficit with the US.

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On a year-on-year basis, exports to the US grew by 17.7 per cent in Q1 2025 compared with Q1 2024, but the trend reversed thereafter. Exports fell by 14.3 per cent in Q2 2025 compared with Q2 2024 and plunged by 56.0 per cent in Q3 2025 relative to Q3 2024.

Imports increased sharply across all quarters, rising by 40.9 per cent in Q1, 123.5 per cent in Q2, and 209.4 per cent in Q3. The sharp contraction in export earnings explains why the United States dropped out of Nigeria’s top five export destinations by Q2 and Q3 of 2025, despite remaining one of Nigeria’s largest sources of imports.

Product-level data from the NBS further shows the imbalance. In Q1 2025, Nigeria’s exports to the US were dominated by crude petroleum oils valued at N779.38bn, followed by urea at N240.17bn and kerosene-type jet fuel at N214.30bn. Other export items included petroleum gases in gaseous state valued at N95.97bn and standard quality cocoa beans at N58.84bn.

Imports from the US in Q1 2025 were led by crude petroleum oils worth N726.84bn, alongside used diesel vehicles above 2,500cc valued at N93.51bn, lubricating oil additives at N60.12bn, soya beans at N45.04bn, and butanes at N32.85bn.

By Q2 2025, Nigeria’s export basket to the US had narrowed significantly, led by cocoa beans worth N37.39bn and urea valued at N106.44bn, alongside technically specified natural rubber at N10.43bn and leather products valued at N127.22m.

Imports, however, expanded sharply, with crude petroleum oils alone valued at N1.34tn, followed by used vehicles, wheat, motor spirit, and denatured alcohol. In Q3 2025, exports dwindled further to relatively minor items such as soya bean flour valued at N23.60bn, cocoa powder preparations worth N36.83m, and technically specified natural rubber valued at N5.03bn.

Imports from the US continued to surge, with crude petroleum oils rising to N2.31tn, alongside strong inflows of used vehicles, wheat, and industrial plastics. With the US no longer among Nigeria’s top five export destinations by mid-2025 and imports accelerating rapidly, the figures highlight growing structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s trade position and the vulnerability of its export earnings to external policy shifts.

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FG pledges resilience

Earlier in September, President Bola Tinubu said his administration will remain resilient and has no fear of the trade policy direction of US President Donald Trump, particularly tariffs targeting Nigerian exports. The President cited Nigeria’s current economic trajectory and growing non-oil revenues as buffers against external shocks. Tinubu said, “If non-oil revenue is growing, then we have no fear of whatever Trump is doing on the other side.”

Also, Nigeria’s Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Jumoke Oduwole, said the country would not be stampeded into retaliatory action but would continue on its path of reform and diversification. “Nigeria remains responsive; we’re not reacting. We’re focused on the eight-point agenda of President Bola Tinubu. We will continue to support domestic investors and expand market access for Nigerian businesses,” Oduwole said.

She noted that while the United States remains an important trade partner, Nigeria is strengthening its African Continental Free Trade Area strategy and boosting non-oil exports, which grew by 24 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025.

“It’s mostly an energy trading relationship, but we are waiting to see what happens with AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act) in September. We are also growing exports to other African countries and expanding partnerships with Brazil, China, Japan, and the UAE,” she added.

The minister stressed that Nigeria would seize opportunities for South–South cooperation, pursue export diversification, and reduce dependence on the American market.

Stakeholders in Nigeria’s export sector earlier called on the United States of America to review the tariffs on Nigerian products, while describing the tariff as an opportunity for the country to expand its non-oil exports.

Experts speak

Stakeholders led by the Nigerian-American Chamber of Commerce and the Nigerian Export Promotion Council noted that the US tariffs should not be seen only as a challenge but also as a window for growth.

Also, a development economist and Chief Executive Officer of CSA Advisory, Dr Aliyu Ilias, said Nigeria should view the current trade situation as an opportunity to adapt. “I think it’s a good time that this is happening to Nigeria. Trump’s tariff is not only for Nigeria. The advantage is that we are now exporting more overall, which is positive for us,” he said.

Ilias argued that Nigeria could use its position within BRICS and other international alliances to reduce vulnerability and build resilience. He added that with other countries such as India and China also facing US tariffs, Nigeria had an opening to forge new partnerships.

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“We also have to start being on our own. We can trade with other partners and see, because other partners are also looking for partners. The tariff that is affecting us is also affecting others, so it may be a good opportunity,” he added.

Similarly, renowned economist and Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, downplayed the impact of the US tariffs on Nigeria. “Our trade with the US is not that strategic. When anything goes wrong, it is not as if it can have any fundamental effect on our economy. Our trade exposure to them is very limited,” Yusuf explained.

He noted that Nigerian exports to the US are dominated by crude oil and a handful of other commodities such as fertilisers, making the country’s trade profile narrow and underdeveloped in non-oil areas. Yusuf added that Nigeria’s tariff exposure is relatively moderate compared with other countries. However, he identified another challenge beyond tariffs: US visa policy.

“The bigger challenge for Nigeria’s trade relationship with the U.S. is Washington’s visa policy. Barriers to travel limit business interactions and investment inflows. That is more critical than tariffs in the long run,” he said.

Since its inception, the Trump administration has steadily rolled out a series of visa restrictions and travel bans targeting Nigeria and several other countries.

He has cited the need to reform the US immigration system, strengthen border security, and improve the vetting of foreign nationals as justification for the decisions.

These measures, which have generated diplomatic unease and personal distress, reached a new phase with the latest proclamation signed by the US President.

The proclamation imposed travel restrictions on Nigerians and citizens of 16 other African countries. According to the White House, holders of the B-1, B-2, B-1/B-2, F, M, and J visas are barred from entering the United States from January 1, 2026.

The visa categories cover business and tourist travel, as well as students and exchange visitors, effectively affecting a broad spectrum of Nigerians.

Beyond security concerns, the US government also cited what it described as a high rate of visa overstays by Nigerian nationals as part of the justification for the restrictions.

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NNPC April crude supplies to Dangote cross 1bn barrels

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Crude oil supply from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited’s trading arm surged in April 2026, with shipment records indicating that more than 1.03 million metric tonnes, equivalent to about 6.8 million barrels or over 1.08 billion litres, were delivered to the Dangote Oil and Gas Company Limited within the month.

An analysis of tanker vessel movements obtained by The PUNCH on Tuesday shows that the deliveries were executed through eight crude cargoes handled by NNPC Trading, reinforcing the state oil firm’s role as a major feedstock supplier to the 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote refinery.

The shipments, sourced from key Nigerian crude streams including Anyala, Bonga, Odudu, Forcados, Qua Iboe, and Utapate, were routed through the refinery’s Single Point Mooring systems, SPM-C1 and SPM-C2.

The document shows that out of the eight cargoes, five have been fully discharged, while three others are still awaiting berthing or completion, indicating a steady pipeline of crude inflows into the refinery.

This development comes amid the refinery’s continued complaints of supply inadequacies, with a total requirement of 19 cargoes monthly, and a recent report that the country imported 55.39 million barrels in January and February 2026.

A breakdown of the deliveries showed that Sonangol Kalandula initiated the supply chain, delivering 123,000 metric tonnes of crude from Anyala. The vessel arrived on April 5, berthed on April 8, and sailed on April 9.

This was followed by Advantage Spring, which supplied 128,190 metric tonnes from Bonga, arriving on April 11 and completing discharge by April 13.

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Similarly, a vessel code-named Barbarosa delivered 125,000 metric tonnes from Odudu, while Sonangol Njinga Mban transported 129,089 metric tonnes from Bonga.

Another completed shipment, handled by Nordic Tellus, brought in 139,066 metric tonnes from Forcados, completing discharge on April 17.

However, three additional cargoes remain in progress. Advantage Sun, carrying 142,327 metric tonnes from Bonga, has arrived but is yet to berth. Also pending are Advantage Spring from Utapate with 120,189 metric tonnes, and Sonangol Kalandula from Qua Iboe with 126,471 metric tonnes.

In total, the NNPC Trading cargoes account for 1,033,332 metric tonnes of crude, underscoring what industry analysts describe as a “strong and sustained supply commitment” to the Dangote refinery.

Further findings show that, beyond crude deliveries, the Dangote refinery also received multiple shipments of refined products and blending components from international markets during the period.

Among them, Seaways Lonsdale delivered 37,400 metric tonnes of blendstock gasoline from Immingham, United Kingdom, handled by Vitol, between April 18 and 19.

Another vessel, Augenstern, supplied 37,125 metric tonnes of Premium Motor Spirit from Lavera, France, discharging between April 8 and 9.

From Norway, Emma Grace brought in 37,496 metric tonnes of PMS from Mongstad, while LVM Aaron delivered 36,323 metric tonnes from Lome, Togo.

Similarly, Egret discharged 35,498 metric tonnes of naphtha from Rotterdam between April 16 and 18, providing critical feedstock for gasoline blending.

A pending shipment, Mont Blanc I, carrying 36,877 metric tonnes of blendstock gasoline from Antwerp, Belgium, is yet to berth, while Aesop is expected to deliver 130,000 metric tonnes of residue catalytic oil from Singapore later in April.

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In addition to NNPC Trading volumes, other crude cargoes from international and domestic traders also supported refinery operations.

Notably, Yasa Hercules delivered 273,287 metric tonnes of crude from Corpus Christi, United States, while Front Orkla brought in 264,889 metric tonnes from Ingleside, US.

A major cargo, Navig8 Passion, supplied 496,330 metric tonnes of crude from Cameroon, highlighting regional supply integration.

Domestic contributions included Harmonic, which delivered nearly 993,240 barrels from Ugo Ocha, and Aura M, which supplied 1 million barrels from Escravos, alongside an additional 651,331 barrels of cargo from Anyala.

Operational data indicate that most vessels berthed within one to two days of arrival and departed shortly after discharge, suggesting improved efficiency at the refinery’s offshore terminals.

The Dangote refinery, located in Lekki, Lagos, is Africa’s largest single-train refinery, with a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.

The facility is expected to significantly reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products by refining domestic crude and supplying petrol, diesel, aviation fuel, and other derivatives to the local market.

NNPC Limited, through its trading arm, has remained a central player in supplying crude to the refinery under evolving commercial arrangements, amid ongoing reforms in Nigeria’s downstream oil sector.

Earlier this month, Africa’s richest man and President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, revealed in a report by Bloomberg that the refinery received 10 cargoes of crude oil from the state-owned oil firm in March, compared to an average of about five cargoes monthly since late 2024.

Dangote said the shipments included six cargoes paid for in naira and four in dollars, under the crude supply arrangement between the refinery and the NNPC.

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“Nigeria doubled crude supply to Dangote Refinery in March as Africa’s top oil producer moved to shore up fuel availability after the Iran war disrupted Middle East shipments. Last month, they gave us six cargoes with payments in naira and four cargoes with payments in dollars,” he stated.

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CBN, NCC to combat SIM-related fraud

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The Central Bank of Nigeria and the Nigerian Communications Commission on Monday signed a memorandum of understanding to tackle SIM-related fraud and strengthen consumer protection across Nigeria’s digital ecosystem.

The agreement, signed at the CBN headquarters in Abuja, aims to improve coordination between the financial and telecommunications sectors, focusing on combating electronic fraud linked to mobile numbers, enhancing payment system integrity, and protecting consumers.

Speaking at the event, the CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, said the pact was a “practical statement of national interest”, noting that the increasing reliance on digital channels for payments and financial services required stronger collaboration between both regulators.

He said, “This MoU is not merely an administrative document; it is a practical statement of national interest,” adding that the agreement would reinforce the stability and integrity of Nigeria’s payment system while supporting innovation and consumer safety.

Cardoso explained that the deal would strengthen coordination on approvals, technical standards, and innovation trials, including sandbox testing, to ensure that financial services remain reliable and scalable.

He noted that the partnership would also improve the response to rising electronic fraud, stressing that “addressing these threats requires joined-up action, shared intelligence, clearer escalation paths, stronger operational readiness across regulated entities, and consistent public education”.

A key component of the agreement is the rollout of the Telecom Identity Risk Management Portal, a data-sharing platform designed to detect fraud linked to recycled, swapped, or blacklisted phone numbers.

According to Cardoso, the platform would enable real-time verification of mobile number status across banks and fintech firms, providing an additional layer of protection for consumers and the financial system.

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He said strict compliance with data protection laws, including encryption and consent protocols, would guide the use of the platform.

Also speaking, the Executive Vice Chairman of the NCC, Aminu Maida, described the agreement as a major step in strengthening Nigeria’s digital economy.

He said, “The signing of this Memorandum of Understanding marks an important milestone in the regulatory stewardship of Nigeria’s digital economy,” adding that collaboration between both institutions was “not optional; it is imperative.”

Maida noted that the initiative would give financial institutions better visibility into the status of phone numbers used in transactions, including whether a line had been swapped, recycled, or flagged for fraudulent activity.

“This ensures that our financial services industry is better equipped with timely and relevant information to effectively combat e-fraud, particularly those perpetrated using phone numbers,” he said.

He added that the agreement would also improve consumer protection, assuring Nigerians that issues such as failed airtime recharges would be resolved more quickly under the new framework.

Earlier, the Director of Payment System Supervision at the CBN, Dr Rakiya Yusuf, said the partnership between both regulators had evolved over the years from separate oversight roles into a more integrated collaboration focused on securing Nigeria’s digital and financial systems.

She traced the relationship back to earlier efforts to align mobile payment regulations and telecom licensing frameworks, including the 2018 MoU that enabled telecom operators to participate in mobile money services through special purpose vehicles.

She also highlighted joint interventions such as the resolution of the USSD pricing dispute and the introduction of a N6.98 per session fee, as well as recent efforts to address failed transactions through a proposed 30-second refund framework.

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Under the new agreement, two joint committees will be established to drive implementation. These include the Joint Committee on Payment Systems and Consumer Protection and the Joint Committee on the telecom risk management platform.

The agreement is expected to deepen digital financial inclusion, reduce fraud risks, and strengthen trust in Nigeria’s rapidly expanding digital economy.

The PUNCH earlier reported that the CBN and the NCC unveiled a joint framework to tackle the growing problem of failed airtime and data transactions, which have left consumers frustrated after payments are processed but service delivery is not provided.

The 20-page draft, published on the CBN’s website, was developed by the CBN’s Consumer Protection & Financial Inclusion Department and the telecom regulator, with input from banks, mobile operators, payment providers, and other stakeholders.

The regulators seek to clarify accountability, standardise complaint-resolution timelines, and create a coordinated system for addressing grievances across the financial and telecommunications sectors.

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Electricity reforms: Rivers, Kano, 19 others delay takeover

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Twenty-one states, including Rivers and Kano, are yet to assume regulatory control of their electricity markets nearly three years after the enactment of the Electricity Act 2023, even as 15 states have already transitioned to independent market oversight.

The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission disclosed that the states that have completed the transition have established their own electricity regulatory frameworks and are now responsible for market development, investment attraction, tariff oversight, and customer protection within their jurisdictions.

According to the commission, the shift follows the decentralisation provisions of the Electricity Act 2023, which empower subnational governments to regulate electricity generation, transmission and distribution within their territories after completing the necessary legal and administrative processes.

NERC noted that 15 states have so far completed the transition to state-level regulation. These include Enugu, Ekiti, Ondo, Imo, Oyo, Edo, Kogi, Lagos, Ogun, Niger, Plateau, Abia, Nasarawa, Anambra and Bayelsa.

However, the remaining 21 states yet to assume regulatory control are Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Kwara, Osun, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe and Zamfara.

Industry analysts said the slow pace of transition in some states could delay the expected benefits of decentralisation, including improved power supply, localised tariff structures, and accelerated investments in embedded generation and mini-grid projects.

Under the new framework, once a state completes its transition, the state electricity regulator takes over licensing of intrastate electricity operations, enforcement of technical standards, tariff setting for local distribution, and protection of electricity consumers within the state.

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NERC, in turn, retains oversight only on interstate and national grid-related activities.

The commission emphasised that state regulators are expected to drive local electricity market growth by encouraging private sector participation, promoting renewable energy deployment, and ensuring service quality standards for distribution companies operating within their jurisdictions.

The timeline released by the commission shows that the earliest transitions occurred in October 2024, when Enugu and Ekiti states assumed regulatory authority, followed by Ondo shortly after. The pace accelerated in 2025, with several states, including Oyo, Edo, Lagos and Ogun, completing their transitions. The most recent additions include Nasarawa, Anambra and Bayelsa between January and February 2026.

It was observed, however, that some of the 15 states have not set up their regulatory commissions.

Power sector stakeholders argue that states yet to transition risk missing opportunities to attract investments in off-grid electrification projects, particularly in underserved rural communities.

They also note that state-level regulation could help address longstanding distribution challenges by enabling more flexible tariff structures, targeted subsidies, and enforcement mechanisms tailored to local conditions.

With less than half of the states having completed the transition, many argued that the effectiveness of the Electricity Act reforms will largely depend on how quickly the remaining states establish their regulatory institutions and operational frameworks.

Apparently overwhelmed by the country’s power woes, the Federal Government recently pushed the challenge to the 36 states, asking them to take over power generation, transmission, and distribution.

The Federal Government said this was the only solution to the power crisis in the country.

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The Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said at an energy summit in Lagos that the Electricity Act’s impact includes decentralisation and liberalisation.

“In a country as big as Nigeria, with almost a million square kilometres of landmass, over 200 million people, millions of businesses, thousands of institutions (health and educational institutions), 36 states plus the Federal Capital Territory, and 774 local governments—centralisation cannot work for us. The responsibility of providing stable electricity can never be left in the hands of the Federal Government.

“At the centre, you cannot, from Abuja, guarantee stable power across the country. So, this is one thing that the Act has achieved—decentralisation. That has now allowed all the states or the subnationals to play in all segments of the power sector value chain—generation, transmission, distribution, and even service industries supporting the power sector,” he stated.

He called on the remaining 21 states to set up their electricity market.

“I believe other states will follow suit in operationalising the autonomy granted, with full collaboration of the national regulator. We are working actively with these states to ensure strong alignment between the wholesale market and the retail market.

“In this regard, we believe the active involvement of the state governments, particularly in the off-grid segment, is critical, given the series of roundtable engagements held with governors by the Rural Electrification Agency, as well as ongoing efforts to closely track the distribution companies’ performances within their respective jurisdictions,” Adelabu emphasised.

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