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Counterfeit empire: Lagos electronics market where fake products sustain luxury

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Beneath the bustling chaos of Alaba International Market lies a hidden economy built on counterfeit goods. Refurbished televisions masquerade as brand-new, logos deceive the eye, and receipts vanish without a trace. For traders, it is a lifeline, a way to support families and even sustain luxury lifestyles; for unsuspecting buyers, it often means disappointment and significant financial loss. In this investigation, CHIJIOKE IREMEKA not only exposes the underdogs behind this imitation business but also draws parallels with similar trade hubs worldwide, offering potential solutions to curb this thriving culture

“I  didn’t know a television could be refurbished and painted the way a vehicle could be panel-beaten and sprayed,” said 31-year-old Dumebi Asika, recalling how he was shortchanged at Alaba International Market, Lagos, while trying to buy a 65-inch smart TV for his home.

The newlywed had recently rented a two-bedroom flat in Okota, Amuwo-Odofin, in the heart of Ojo Local Government Area, Lagos State, for N1.8m. After furnishing his living room with sofas, he set out to buy a fashionable smart television as a gift for his wife.

However, with the prices of new televisions rising across brands, the 65-inch TV he wanted was beyond his budget.

A new model was going for N620,000, while a tokunbo (used) television sold for N242,000. Reluctantly, he opted for a used set, but that decision would later lead to disappointment.

“Everything went wrong when I settled for tokunbo instead of my original choice. I went for a fairly used TV, but I was given a refurbished one instead,” he said.

How it began

What the smooth-talking seller, known only as Joe, actually handed Asika was an old TV set cleverly passed off as tokunbo.

“The TV worked perfectly for a couple of weeks, but after a month, it started overheating and randomly shutting down. Within a week, lines appeared across the screen. I was shocked,” he recalled.

Attempts to reach Joe through the contact on the receipt proved futile. Frustrated, Asika took the television to a local electrician, who delivered the unwelcome news: the set was not a genuine Samsung.

While the casing bore Samsung branding, the internal components: panel, motherboard, and power unit, were cheap, mismatched parts from unknown manufacturers.

Essentially, it was an assembled TV masquerading as a branded product.

“It was a screen problem, but repairing it would cost almost as much as the TV itself, with no guarantee it would last. I was advised to return it to the seller,” Asika explained.

Finding the seller, Joe, was complicated by ongoing demolition and rebuilding projects in the market, which had displaced many traders. When they finally met, Joe argued the television had been in perfect condition when it was sold, claiming Asika damaged it and should bear the responsibility.

“It was a heated argument. People gathered to intervene, but Joe insisted he had done nothing wrong, saying he sold the product two months earlier and couldn’t accommodate returns beyond that period.

“Eventually, I had to drop the faulty set, pay an additional N49,500, and accept a 55-inch LG TV instead of the 65-inch I wanted. I wish I had gone for my initial choice, a brand-new TV. But it was an experience that changed my perception of tokunbo items,” Asika lamented.

‘I paid for a 55-inch TV but 45-inch was given’

In a similar case, 48-year-old civil servant, Sunday Chinwike, fell victim to brand counterfeiters at Alaba Market. After saving for months to upgrade his living room TV, he was led to believe he could get a high-quality 55-inch LG smart television at a lower price.

Guided by local hustlers known as Osoafia boys, who posed as market insiders, Chinwike was led into a shop lined with neatly stacked LG-branded television cartons.

The shop assistants, later discovered to be impostors, showcased the television’s features, displayed an LG-branded remote control, and produced a seemingly convincing warranty card.

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“The price was N320,000, lower than elsewhere, but not suspiciously cheap. I trusted them. I didn’t understand the meaning of being careful until I was shortchanged,” Chinwike recalled.

Trader packing a counterfeited LG television into a carton after manually stamping LG logo on it

He said he was drawn in by claims of a promotional price and LG’s excess stock.

“After a brief test in the shop, the television came on, showed bright colours and looked genuine. Unfortunately, I did not pay attention to the software or the size,” the man said.

It was only after returning home that his son, Marcel, began navigating the settings and noticed anomalies.

“Some of the apps and software in the menu weren’t customised. After a series of checks, we discovered it wasn’t an LG product at all; it was a clone. We also realised it wasn’t as large as my neighbour’s television. Yet, surprisingly, most features worked, including Bluetooth and Wi-Fi,” Chinwike explained.

Shocked by the discovery, father and son returned to the shop seeking a replacement, only to encounter the real shop owner, who delivered an unexpected revelation.

“By the time we arrived, the seller had disappeared. The shop owner examined the television and said it was not his product. He said he did not even stock 55-inch LG televisions. The receipt I had did not come from his store. Apparently, Osoafia hustlers had sourced the set from another vendor and sold it as genuine,” Chinwike said.

The owner advised him to exercise more caution, clarifying that the product itself was not faulty, just that it was simply not authentic.

“The original model sells for about N750,000 and is roughly 10 inches larger than the one I bought. I had to return home with the fake television, wasting my transport fare. Still, it wasn’t entirely useless, and I learnt my lesson,” he added.

Chinwike’s experience, like that of many others, highlights a fractured system in which counterfeit global brands sustain livelihoods while ordinary Nigerians bear the brunt.

The menace of counterfeiting

Across Alaba International Market, counterfeit products, including telephones, cables, electronics, and televisions, are sold daily.

LG, Samsung, and Hisense are among the global brands most commonly imitated. Investigations by Sunday PUNCH revealed that traders import generic or substandard TV panels, assemble them locally, and brand them with popular logos. To the untrained eye, the products appear authentic, with carefully fabricated cartons, substandard remote controls, start-up screens, and serial numbers.

Experts warn that until regulatory agencies, brand owners, and policymakers enforce stricter measures, Alaba’s counterfeit economy will continue to thrive, ensnaring unsuspecting buyers behind familiar logos.

Regulatory agencies, including the Standards Organisation of Nigeria, have occasionally carried out raids in the market, seizing counterfeit goods and shutting down shops engaged in illegal activities.

However, enforcement has remained inconsistent. The market’s vast size, dense population, and political sensitivity mean that business often resumes almost immediately after raids. Brand owners have also faced criticism for weak local oversight and limited consumer education.

Millions lost to counterfeiting

The World Bank estimates that Nigeria loses around 15 per cent of potential GDP growth annually due to counterfeit products and related illegal trade.

Experts note that the Information and Communications Technology and electronics sectors are particularly vulnerable, with counterfeit devices contributing to poor service quality and financial losses for both consumers and original manufacturers.

Even international watchdogs have taken notice. In 2014, the Trademark Working Group, an informal collaboration of US companies facing challenges protecting their trademarks abroad, listed Alaba as one of Nigeria’s most notorious markets for counterfeit goods.

In 2018, SON revealed that Nigeria lost N15bn annually to counterfeiters.

A former SON director, John Achukwu, made this known at a stakeholders’ workshop on “Reduction of Substandard Products in Nigeria” for the South-East zone.

See also  Wema Bank is the longest surviving indigenous bank in Nigeria.

Today, counterfeit goods are noted to make up 40 per cent of products in the Nigerian market, causing annual economic losses exceeding $20bn.

Many of these products, particularly electronics, are imported, and according to SON, the body had previously destroyed counterfeit items worth up to N500m in single operations.

Recent accounts from buyers highlight the persistence and severity of these scams.

A banker, Wilson Ebo, for instance, said he went to Alaba to buy a second-hand Samsung home theatre, only to realise it was counterfeit.

“After testing the sets and negotiating a price of N25,000, I paid and signed the receipt without scrutiny. Later, a shop assistant told me the DVD engine worked only on a generator and suggested a swap. When I asked for a refund, the seller refused. An elderly man posing as a mediator later revealed that the receipt excluded the subwoofer and speakers. It became clear that the mediator was part of the scam. I had no choice but to pay an extra N6,000, and even then, the so-called Samsung was fake, as the logo was simply glued on it,” he said.

Fake products, cheap alternatives

Sunday PUNCH’s investigation revealed a system sustained by economic hardship and weak regulation, even as some traders defended the sale of low-quality goods as affordable alternatives for the masses.

“The goods you call fake are actually cheap alternatives for the masses. If we sold only originals, what would the poor do? How many people can afford them? Customers want affordable products because of the country’s economic situation. Everyone is just trying to survive, and you cannot blame anyone for that. Those who cannot afford the original will go for an alternative and still enjoy their lives,” argued a trader, Joshua Chidozie.

He acknowledged that alternatives are not necessarily bad but warned that some hustlers do not provide buyers with true, full details.

Osoafia boys at Alaba

“If you are not careful, they will sell that same alternative to you as the original. In the market, there are always two products: original and copy. You can get the one you want, but if you don’t know and seek a cheaper product, they will sell you a copy in place of the original,” he added.

In contrast, an electronics engineer, Kenneth Ikwo, warned that the normalisation of counterfeiting has created a dangerous marketplace where deception has become routine. He noted that while consumers are often blamed for being ‘careless,’ the sophistication of counterfeit products makes it nearly impossible for the average buyer to identify a fake.

“You can’t be more careful than the criminals. Some counterfeit TVs pass basic on-the-spot tests but fail weeks or months later, long after the seller has disappeared. Beyond financial loss, the risks are serious. Substandard electronics can cause electrical faults, fires, and health hazards. Many fake TVs lack proper insulation and voltage regulation, which can burn sockets and damage entire apartments,” Ikwo warned.

He alleged that traders often source low-quality television sets from foreign manufacturers, particularly in China, without brand logos. Once in Nigeria, he noted, local printing shops produce counterfeit brand cartons to package the products as originals—a practice recently highlighted in a viral video circulating online.

Fake LG logo syndicate exposed

Recently, a suspected syndicate was exposed inside Alaba International Market for printing LG logos on cartons for 45-inch and 55-inch televisions. A viral video obtained by Sunday PUNCH showed the suspects stamping LG logos on cartons as they prepared the televisions for sale to unsuspecting customers.

Stack_of fake television inside of fake LG cartorns at Alaba Internationa Market, Ojo. Lagos

A voiceover in the video said, “Yesterday, I was in Alaba… and I came across this guy printing the LG logo on these new TVs.”

According to the narrator, over 3,000 cartons of counterfeit televisions were discovered inside the shop, raising fresh concerns about the scale of fake electronics flooding Lagos.

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Prospective buyers were urged to exercise caution, as branded packaging alone does not guarantee authenticity.

Why the menace persists

An electronics dealer in Festac town, Osita Udegbunam,  attributed the persistence of counterfeiting to poverty and the struggle for survival.

“As a first-time visitor to the market, you’ll encounter Osofia hustlers who direct you to shops or claim they have exactly what you are looking for. These are mostly unemployed young men with no capital to start trading, but with extensive knowledge of the market.

“They guide buyers to sellers, earning small tokens from both parties to survive. Even married men rely on these crumbs to support their families. This system exists in major markets – electronics, foodstuffs, and more,” he said.

Udegbunam noted that similar practices are common in Alaba Rago, the livestock market, where local boys guide buyers, as well as in cattle markets.

“However, due to hunger and desperation, some have turned to crime as a faster way to survive. No authority can solve this without addressing the root causes. Create jobs, reduce hunger, and make life meaningful for the masses, and these problems will diminish. Even graduates are involved. The hungrier the population, the more people drift into scams and crime,” Udegbunam added.

Supporting this, a trader in Oshodi, Jonathan Isibor, explained that while some hustlers are genuinely trying to make a living, others deliberately prey on unsuspecting buyers.

“The bad ones usually exploit greed. They may offer an LG 42-inch LED TV for N100,000 or quote other unrealistic prices. If you fall for it, you return the next day claiming you were scammed at Alaba. These scammers operate in organised rings, and once you fall into one, escaping their trap is difficult. The best protection is to remain alert and wary of their tricks,” he advised.

Isibor added that these hustlers cut across ethnic lines, Yoruba, Igbo, and Hausa, but are united by a single motive: defrauding unsuspecting buyers.

“Hunger knows no tribe, and crime has no colour. A Yoruba hustler may discourage you from buying from an Igbo trader, and vice versa, but they often belong to the same ring. Their sole aim is to defraud you,” he explained.

The trader also noted that task forces oversee different sections of the market. “Once you identify where you made a transaction, report it immediately to the task force, and it will be addressed. Alaba has many genuine, hardworking traders, but in a market of this size, bad actors will always exist. Buyers must stay observant, avoid shady deals, and carefully read receipts before signing or making payment,” he added.

 ‘We are hustlers, not criminals’

One of the Osoafia hustlers, Peter Balogun, rejected the criminal label often attached to them, insisting that most are simply trying to survive.

“We are not criminals,” he insisted. “We hustle to feed our homes. What we do is guide customers to traders who sell the products they are looking for. When a customer buys, we get a small commission from the trader or a token from the customer.”

Balogun acknowledged that some individuals exploit the system to commit scams, but emphasised that they do not represent the majority. “Bad people are spoiling the work for us, but many of us are genuine. Unemployment and hardship have pushed many young men into Osoafia hustling. There are no jobs. This market is how we survive,” he added.

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Highest bidder won’t automatically get oil blocks — FG

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The Federal Government on Tuesday said the highest financial bidder would not automatically emerge as the winner of an oil block in the ongoing 2025 Licensing Round, insisting that technical competence and operational capability would play a decisive role in determining successful bidders.

Speaking at the 2025 Commercial Bid Conference in Abuja, the Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, said the commission’s evaluation process was designed to ensure petroleum assets were awarded to companies capable of developing them, rather than firms that simply submitted the highest financial offers.

She said the assessment process was rigorous, objective and aimed at securing the best long-term value for Nigeria’s upstream petroleum sector.

“The evaluation was rigorous. It was objective. It was simple. And it was to place assets in the hands of bidders capable of delivering the best overall long-term value. It wasn’t, or it isn’t going to be just about your ability to be the highest bidder.

“We want to ensure that you have the right capabilities to deliver the assets, in addition to having the financial resources to deliver these assets. The team carefully assessed each bidder’s competence and experience, organisational and operational capacity, credibility of their proposed work programme, resource commitment to execution, and the ability to deliver within the proposed time frame,” Eyesan said.

She explained that the commission assessed bidders based on competence, experience, operational capacity, the credibility of their work programmes, resource commitment and their ability to execute projects within specified timelines.

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“Today, the commercial components of the qualified bids will be opened. And as was said earlier, forget whatever you’ve been told, forget whatever you’ve heard, nobody has seen anybody’s commercial bids. And we will demonstrate that today.

“This approach of ensuring close bids is in recognition of the fact that these equities must be operated by credible, competent operators. Not, I repeat, by operators who can bid the highest,” she added.

The commercial bid opening marks the final stage of the licensing process before the successful companies are announced.

PUNCH Online reports that the 2025 Licensing Round was announced on November 11, 2025, in line with the Petroleum Industry Act 2021, with 50 oil and gas blocks offered across seven sedimentary basins.

The assets comprise 16 Niger Delta onshore blocks, 18 shallow water blocks, one deep offshore block, three blocks in the Benin Basin, four in the Anambra Basin, four in the Chad Basin and four in the Benue Trough.

The bid portal opened on December 1, 2025, while a pre-bid conference was held on January 14, 2026, in Lagos to guide prospective investors on the bidding requirements.

Registration and prequalification submissions closed on February 27, 2026, with the prequalification process completed on March 16.

Under the licensing guidelines, winning bids are determined through a weighted evaluation of signature bonus commitments, proposed work programmes and performance security, combining both technical and commercial scores rather than financial offers alone.

The framework is intended to ensure that petroleum assets are awarded to investors with the financial strength, technical expertise and operational capacity required to accelerate exploration and production in Nigeria’s upstream sector.

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FG securities deliver positive real returns to investors

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Nigeria’s fixed-income market is offering investors something that has been scarce in recent years – real returns that outpace the inflation rate.

When investment returns beat the inflation rate, investors gain, as the value of their money grows in purchasing power terms, not just in nominal value. This is exactly what the Federal Government bonds and treasury bills now offer investors.

Headline inflation fell to 15.91 per cent in June 2026 from 15.93 per cent in May, halting three straight months of increases, according to the National Bureau of Statistics showed.

The slight decline has been enough to push the yields on some government debt instruments above the inflation rate, allowing investors to preserve and grow their purchasing power after a long period of negative real returns.

The improvement, however, has not extended to all products. The latest FGN Savings Bond, targeted mainly at retail investors, still offers a maximum coupon of 15.716 per cent, leaving it marginally below the prevailing inflation rate.

But higher sovereign borrowing costs have largely driven the return to positive real yields. At the June FGN bond auction, the January 2035 and April 2037 bonds cleared at marginal rates of 18.34 per cent and 18.35 per cent, translating to positive real returns of roughly 244 basis points above June’s inflation rate.

Likewise, the 364-day treasury bill sold at the 15 July auction recorded a stop rate of 17.66 per cent, still remaining ahead of inflation.

There is a stronger investor appetite as market participants reposition their portfolios.

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Treasury bill turnover increased 137.49 per cent to N1.51tn, while FGN bond turnover climbed 75.91 per cent to N1.20tn in the week ended 19 June, reflecting stronger trading activity across the sovereign debt market.

“Positive real returns make treasury bills and government bonds attractive again because investors are rewarded in real, inflation-adjusted terms,” said an emerging markets expert, Ike Ibeabuchi.

The Financial Markets Dealers Association said pricing in the domestic fixed-income market continues to be shaped by inflation expectations and liquidity conditions, even as several major central banks around the world begin shifting towards monetary policy easing.

Analysts, however, caution that the current period of attractive inflation-adjusted returns may be temporary. A former central banker, Chukwunonso Iheoma, estimates the Monetary Policy Rate to fall to 25.5 per cent by the last quarter of 2025.

Standard Chartered, on the other hand, expects the MPR to decline to 25 per cent by the end of 2026. Chief economist, Razia Khan, said the bank now sees room for 150 basis points of monetary easing this year. An Abuja-based fixed income analyst, Joshua Tan, agreed with Khan, but stressed that impending higher energy prices could kibosh positive expectations about lower inflation and interest rate cuts this year.

Cowry Research expects the Monetary Policy Committee to retain its cautious stance at its July meeting but believes sustained moderation in inflation could open the door to the first interest rate cut in September.

But S&P Global warned that rising energy prices could erode the positive real returns currently available on government securities: “Increases in fuel costs as a result of the war in the Middle East have driven up costs among sub-Saharan African companies, putting upwards pressure on inflation and likely bringing to an end cycle of interest rate easing seen in a number of economies in the region.”

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A Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the University of Uyo, Prof Akpan Ekpo, noted that the MPC would likely maintain the current rate because of the uncertainty created by the US-Iran conflict.

According to GTI Limited, Treasury bills, particularly the 364-day instruments, currently provide the strongest mix of yield, liquidity and inflation protection. In contrast, FGN Savings Bonds remain slightly below inflation, highlighting the widening gap between institutional fixed-income instruments and retail-focused savings products.

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Oil cargoes meant for naira-for-crude deal supplied to Dangote – NNPC

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has insisted that it supplied all available crude oil cargoes allocated under the Federal Government’s naira-for-crude initiative to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, saying there had been no withholding on its part.

The national oil company stated this even as a top management official of the Dangote Group disclosed exclusively to The PUNCH that the refinery was receiving just four million barrels of crude oil monthly under the arrangement, instead of about 13 million barrels envisaged after President Bola Tinubu’s 2024 directive.

The refinery had attributed its decision to switch from naira-denominated fuel sales to dollar transactions to the crude supply shortfall, saying it would also increase exports of refined petroleum products to earn foreign exchange.

Responding on Monday, the NNPC, through its spokesman, Andy Odeh, said the company had fully discharged its obligations under the naira-for-crude policy. “As a 7.25 per cent equity shareholder in Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals, NNPC Limited has a direct and genuine interest in seeing the refinery operate at full capacity. That is not in dispute.

“What the figures being cited require is context. Under the naira-denominated crude supply arrangement, NNPC Limited has allocated 100 per cent of all available naira crude cargoes to DPRP in 2026 — there has been no withholding on our part. Actual off-take in any period is shaped by several variables: crude availability, nomination timelines, and the refinery’s own operational scheduling.

Odeh said the NNPC has met its obligations to the refinery, saying the two parties are resolving any existing gaps together. “NNPC Limited has met its 2026 supply obligations to the refinery. Our engagement with DPRP management remains constructive, and where any gaps exist, we are resolving them together — as the partners we are.

“A fully supplied, fully operational Dangote refinery serving the Nigerian market is an obligation NNPC Limited shares without reservation,” he added.

However, the Dangote Group maintained that the crude volumes supplied under the arrangement were inadequate to sustain naira-denominated fuel sales.

A top management official of the Dangote Group had told The PUNCH that crude supply under the naira-for-crude arrangement had been limited to just four million barrels monthly despite the increase in Nigeria’s crude oil production.

See also  Wema Bank is the longest surviving indigenous bank in Nigeria.

The official, who pleaded anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, said the refinery was now set to export a larger percentage of its products in exchange for foreign exchange.

“Since the traders have brought lots of imported products to the market, we are focusing on exports. We can’t, and we shouldn’t be fighting against the government’s policies,” the source said.

Our correspondent told the official that exporting without adequately supplying the domestic market would not be good for the country, but he responded with a question: “Is issuing massive import licences and releasing forex for imports good for the country, when 45 per cent of our production can meet 100 per cent of the entire country’s requirements in terms of petrol, diesel and aviation fuel?”

When told that the NNPC said it had increased crude supply to the Dangote refinery, the official replied, “Do you think that they will keep quiet if we process the naira crude and export the products? We are getting just four million barrels monthly.”

With the sale of petrol in dollars to local marketers, the Dangote official disclosed that the refinery would now process whatever crude it receives under the naira arrangement and supply the equivalent refined products in naira to the Nigerian market through the NNPC.

“We will account for every barrel of crude we receive against the naira payment by supplying equivalent products in naira. We will do that through the NNPC. The NNPC buys a lot from us,” he said.

The refinery had maintained that the inability to secure the expected crude volumes under the naira-for-crude initiative compelled it to abandon naira-denominated fuel sales and adopt dollar pricing for petroleum products.

Last week, the refinery announced a new dollar-denominated pricing template, fixing the ex-depot price of petrol at $0.779 per litre, diesel at $1.087 per litre and aviation fuel at $0.942 per litre.

The move has drawn criticism from petroleum marketers, who warned that it could increase pressure on fuel prices, although the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority said the decision was consistent with the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act, which allows refiners to recover their costs.

Supply worsens

Meanwhile, petrol supply in the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, worsened on Monday with the closure of some major filling stations in Abuja and a fresh increase in the pump price of petrol.

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Checks by one of our correspondents showed that some stations operated by NNPC Limited and MRS along the Airport Road Expressway were shut when visited on Monday.

At stations that were dispensing the product, petrol was being sold at between N1,250 and N1,280 per litre. Bovas sold petrol at N1,250 per litre, while Azman Filling Station at 6th Avenue dispensed the product at N1,280 per litre. Salbas also sold petrol at N1,280 per litre.

The development has further heightened concerns among motorists and other consumers over the rising cost and availability of petrol in the nation’s capital. For motorists in Abuja, Monday’s development meant longer searches for petrol, closed stations and prices as high as N1,280 per litre at outlets that had the product available.

Meanwhile, truck traffic has surged across major private petroleum depots in Lagos as marketers scramble for petrol supplies following the fifth consecutive day of suspended loading at Dangote Petroleum Refinery amid growing expectations that wholesale prices could rise when operations resume.

Expert reacts

Meanwhile, Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics and Principal Facilitator at the FUPRE Energy Business School, Wumi Iledare, said the Dangote refinery’s decision to sell petrol in dollars should be viewed within the broader context of petroleum economics and Nigeria’s energy security rather than merely the currency in which products are priced.

According to Iledare, the move is a commercial response to the realities of the global oil market, where crude oil, the refinery’s major feedstock, is traded in United States dollars.

Iledare explained that pricing refined products in dollars enables the refinery to reduce its exposure to exchange rate volatility and provides greater revenue certainty, although it shifts part of the foreign exchange risk to fuel marketers and, ultimately, consumers, where the costs are passed on.

He stressed that the refinery’s dollar pricing would not automatically translate to higher fuel prices, noting that domestic petrol prices would instead become more closely tied to movements in international crude oil prices and the naira-dollar exchange rate.

“Does this necessarily mean higher fuel prices? Not necessarily. What it does mean is that domestic fuel prices become more closely linked to two key variables: international crude oil prices and the naira-dollar exchange rate. If crude prices rise or the naira weakens, pump prices are likely to increase. Conversely, if crude prices decline or the naira strengthens, consumers should also expect prices to adjust downward. That is how a market-oriented pricing system is expected to function,” he said.

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The petroleum expert maintained that despite concerns over dollar-denominated pricing, the Dangote refinery had strengthened Nigeria’s energy security by reducing dependence on imported petrol and improving the availability of petroleum products.

He, however, noted that domestic refining alone could not guarantee affordability, saying fuel prices would continue to depend on exchange rate stability, international crude prices, logistics costs and the level of competition in the downstream sector.

“The refinery has significantly improved the availability of petroleum products by reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported PMS. That alone makes the country less vulnerable to disruptions in international supply chains and enhances supply reliability.

“This is why I would say that Dangote Refinery can shield Nigeria more effectively from supply shocks than from price shocks. Domestic refining improves energy security, but it cannot completely insulate Nigeria from global petroleum market dynamics because crude oil still has an international opportunity cost, whether it is refined in Lagos, Rotterdam, or Houston,” he stated.

On the implications for the naira, Iledare argued that pricing petroleum products in dollars would not automatically weaken the local currency. “As for the impact on the naira, the answer is more nuanced than many assume. Dollar pricing by itself does not automatically weaken the naira. What matters is whether the arrangement increases or reduces Nigeria’s net demand for foreign exchange,” he said.

He urged policymakers to focus less on the currency in which petroleum products are priced and more on building an efficient and competitive downstream market.

“The real issue is therefore not the currency of pricing. The real issue is whether Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market satisfies the four tests of good public policy: efficiency, effectiveness, equity, and ethics. Those are the standards by which this development should be judged,” he added.

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