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Oil revenue row: Presidency defends Tinubu as legal titans split over Executive Order

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The Presidency has defended President Bola Tinubu’s Executive Order, which halted revenue deductions by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and other agencies.

It said the Petroleum Industry Act violates and is not superior to the Nigerian Constitution.

The Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, stated that criticism of the directive by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria demonstrated a lack of understanding of the constitutional supremacy over ordinary legislation.

“PENGASSAN is focusing on PIA alone. The President’s action is based on the Nigerian Constitution, which PIA violates in allowing the deductions that the President has now stopped. PIA is not superior to our constitution,” Onanuga stated in a response to inquiries by The PUNCH on Monday.

The Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria had on Friday opposed the presidential fiat, accusing the President of violating the PIA with his revenue retention order.

But the presidential spokesman insisted the union made a “knee-jerk reaction” without studying the constitutional provisions underpinning the directive.

“PENGASSAN should have read the constitution before making its knee-jerk reaction,” he said.

Onanuga explained that the Executive Order derives its authority from section 5 of the 1999 Constitution, which vests executive powers of the Federation in the President, including the maintenance of the Constitution and implementation of federal laws.

He said the directive is further anchored on section 44(3) of the Constitution, which vests ownership, control, and derivative rights in all minerals, mineral oils, and natural gas in Nigeria in the Government of the Federation.

According to the presidential aide, the Executive Order seeks to restore constitutional revenue entitlements of the Federal, State, and Local Governments, which were “taken away in 2021 by the Petroleum Industry Act.”

“The PIA created structural and legal channels through which substantial Federation revenues are lost through deductions, sundry charges, and fees,” Onanuga stated.

But the union argued that the directive would cripple the company’s ability to fund operations and fulfil its statutory obligations, including contributions to the Frontier Exploration Fund, critical for hydrocarbon exploration in 2026.

The PUNCH reported that the directive has sparked deep concerns within the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, and the board and management of the Midstream and Downstream Gas Infrastructure Fund.

However, the Presidency maintained that the order is necessary to plug revenue leakages and ensure that funds constitutionally due to all tiers of government are not diverted through statutory deductions.

Also, Presidential media aide Sunday Dare defended the Order in a post on X, stating that section 80(1) of the Constitution mandates that all revenues raised or received by the Federation must be paid into the Consolidated Revenue Fund.

He said Executive Order 9 does not create new law or amend the PIA but operationalises constitutional provisions by directing the remittance of petroleum revenues — including royalties, taxes, profit oil and gas, penalties, and related receipts — into constitutionally recognised accounts.

“EO9 does not intrude into legislative competence,” Dare stated, adding that if its validity is disputed, the Judiciary remains the proper forum.

Pending any judicial determination, he said, the Executive is duty-bound to protect Federation revenues and uphold constitutional supremacy.

The PIA, signed into law in August 2021 by former President Muhammadu Buhari, granted NNPCL significant operational and financial autonomy, including the right to retain revenues for reinvestment before remitting proceeds to the Federation Account.

Section 54 of the Act specifically exempts NNPCL from the Fiscal Responsibility Act and allows it to operate on commercial terms without certain government financial regulations.

However, protests have continued o mount over the executive order, with a cross-section of senior advocates faulting the President’s decision.

The senior lawyers raised constitutional concerns over the legality of Executive Order 9, arguing that President Tinubu lacks the authority to override or set aside an Act of the National Assembly through an executive instrument.

Eight SANs, including Lekan Ojo, Adeola Adedipe, Paul Obi, Wale Balogun, Dr Wahab Shittu, Dr Abiodun Layonu, Isiaka Olagunju and Mofesomo Tayo-Oyetibo, asserted the President cannot set aside an Act of the National Assembly through an Executive Order, insisting that only the judiciary can declare a law unconstitutional.

Speaking in a separate interview with The PUNCH on Monday, President of the Nigerian Bar Association, Afam Osigwe (SAN), maintained that while executive orders may guide administrative actions, they cannot supplant or contradict existing laws duly enacted by the National Assembly.

Osigwe was emphatic in his position that the President has no powers to modify the law. ‘’No, he does not. A president cannot, by executive order, modify or alter a law. A president doesn’t have the power.”

Ojo similarly stressed that the Petroleum Industry Act is an Act of the National Assembly, “hence the President cannot by any form of executive order, amend, alter or abrogate or nullify any provisions of that act.”

Speaking further, he explained that the executive powers of the President are as prescribed by law and the Constitution, and where there is no enabling power or Act, the President does not have any power.

“Executive order is like instruments to give effect to executive decisions and laws. Where the law has prescribed a particular thing, the President cannot, by executive order, do the opposite. So, the President does not have the power and cannot use an executive order to amend provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act,” Ojo said.

He noted that it is only the National Assembly that can amend or repeal the Act and that if there are justifiable reasons, assuming there are, as to why certain sections of that Act should be nullified or should not be followed for whatever reasons, the best thing is for the National Assembly to take necessary steps towards effecting necessary amendments to the Act.

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‘’That is the only legitimate way by which it can be done. Not via an executive order,” he stressed.

He added, “In other words, an amendment to any act of the National Assembly cannot be effected via an executive order. As a matter of fact, the court itself does not have the power to amend. That will amount to judicial legislation.”

He noted that, as such, having executive legislation is not allowed.

“We can also not have executive legislation. Neither judicial legislation nor executive legislation is permitted under the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. So any attempt to amend an executive order is nothing but a nullity, and it is to that extent ineffective. It is an exercise in futility,” Ojo said.

Also, Adedipe explained that executive orders are limited to administrative convenience and cannot replace the constitutional law-making process.

“Executive Orders help with functions and administrative convenience.  Law making process is set out in the Constitution, and the same cannot be substituted by an executive fiat,” Adedipe said.

“Any Executive Order that derogates from administrative implementation of an existing law is likely to be annulled when challenged in court.”

On his part, Obi flatly rejected the notion that a president could overreach the legislature through executive directives.

“No, the president does not have the power to overrule or overreach an Act of Parliament through executive orders. No,” he said.

He further noted that the Constitution clearly separates the powers of the executive, legislature and judiciary.

“He is the president in the first place because the constitution gives him powers to act as the head of the executive after the election.

‘’The parliament, under the same constitution, gives them powers to make laws and even gives them powers to override a presidential assent to a bill. The same way it gives the judiciary judicial powers, in section six of the constitution,” he argued.

He further elaborated on the legislative process, noting that where a president withholds assent to a bill, the National Assembly retains the power to override that decision.

He added that the only lawful route open to a president dissatisfied with an existing Act is to initiate an amendment or propose a new law.

“What he can do is either to sponsor a bill to amend that act or sponsor a fresh executive bill for a new law that would repeal the one already made. As long as that act of parliament is valid and is extant and in operation. Presidential executive orders cannot override an act of the national assembly.’’

Drawing a parallel with the United States, Obi cited a recent decision of the US Supreme Court, which nullified President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs.

Balogun underscored the supremacy of substantive legislation over subsidiary instruments, stressing that executive orders must derive their authority from existing laws or the Constitution.

“It is without any doubt that an inferior and or subsidiary legislation cannot override a substantive Act of Parliament.  An Executive Order is indeed a directive exercisable by the Executive e.g. the President, which, however, must be traceable to the law at all times,” Balogun said.

Shittu, in a statement titled, ‘’Scope of Executive Power,’ pointed out that the issue raises “profound constitutional questions regarding the scope and limits of executive power,” particularly in relation to constitutional supremacy, separation of powers and judicial review.

Citing section 1(1) of the Constitution, he noted that the Constitution is supreme and binding on all authorities and persons throughout the country.

He added that while section 1(3) provides that any law inconsistent with the Constitution shall be void to the extent of the inconsistency, the determination of such inconsistency does not lie with the executive.

“Although the Constitution declares inconsistent laws void, the determination of such inconsistency is not left to the subjective discretion of the executive,” he said. “It is a matter that falls within the constitutional competence of the judiciary.”

Shittu stressed that the doctrine of separation of powers clearly delineates responsibilities among the three arms of government.

He explained that section 4 of the Constitution vests legislative powers in the National Assembly, while section 5 vests executive powers in the President for the “execution and maintenance” of the Constitution and laws made by the National Assembly.

“The operative words are ‘execution and maintenance,’” he said. “The President’s constitutional role is to implement and enforce laws, not to alter, suspend or nullify them.”

According to him, executive power is expressly made subject to the provisions of the Constitution and laws enacted by the National Assembly, making it subordinate to legislative authority within the constitutional framework.

Shittu described Executive Orders as administrative instruments used to direct the operations of the executive branch and facilitate the implementation of laws and policies. However, he maintained that they do not possess legislative character.

“They are inherently subordinate instruments and cannot override, amend or repeal provisions of an Act of the National Assembly,” he said. “Their purpose is to facilitate implementation, not to create or invalidate substantive law.”

He further argued that the constitutional hierarchy of norms places the Constitution at the apex, followed by Acts of the National Assembly, and then subsidiary legislation and executive instruments.

“Where an Executive Order conflicts with a valid Act of the National Assembly, the Act prevails,” Shittu stated. “Allowing Executive Orders to override Acts would effectively transfer legislative authority to the Executive and undermine democratic governance.”

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Relying on judicial authorities, Shittu cited the Supreme Court’s decision in Attorney-General of the Federation v. Abubakar, where the court held that the President must act strictly within constitutional limits.

He also referenced Attorney-General of Lagos State v. Attorney-General of the Federation, in which the apex court reaffirmed the supremacy of the Constitution and the duty of all arms of government to operate within their assigned constitutional boundaries.

On the question of whether the President can unilaterally set aside provisions of a duly enacted law on grounds of alleged constitutional inconsistency, Shittu was unequivocal.

“The power to determine constitutional validity is vested exclusively in the judiciary,” he said.

He cited the Supreme Court’s decision in INEC v. Musa, where the court struck down provisions of the Electoral Act that were inconsistent with the Constitution, affirming that only the courts can declare a law unconstitutional.

Similarly, he referred to Military Governor of Lagos State v. Ojukwu, where the Supreme Court warned against executive lawlessness and stressed that government must operate within the confines of the law.

“These authorities establish beyond doubt that the President cannot unilaterally suspend, invalidate or set aside provisions of a duly enacted law,” Shittu said.

He added that where the executive believes a statutory provision violates the Constitution, “the appropriate course of action is to challenge the provision in court and seek a declaratory judgment.”

“Until a competent court declares the provision unconstitutional, it remains valid and binding on all persons and authorities, including the President,” he stated.

Shittu warned that permitting the Executive to invalidate statutory provisions without judicial pronouncement would erode the system of checks and balances.

“It would effectively concentrate legislative, executive and judicial powers in one office,” he said. “Such concentration of power would be incompatible with democratic governance and would undermine the rule of law.”

He concluded that under the 1999 Constitution, “an Executive Order cannot override or supersede an Act of the National Assembly,” adding that the constitutional arrangement preserves the supremacy of the Constitution, maintains separation of powers and safeguards the rule of law.

Similarly, Dr Layonu maintained that an Executive Order cannot legally supersede an Act of Parliament.

“An Executive Order is never meant to contradict the law but to further it and make the law workable.”

According to him, any Executive Order that contradicts an existing statute would be invalid.

“The moment an Executive Order contradicts the law, it becomes null and void to the extent of the inconsistency with the law,” he stated.

Layonu further stressed that the Executive cannot unilaterally set aside a duly enacted law on grounds of alleged constitutional inconsistency.

“The Executive as a body cannot constitutionally set aside provisions of a duly enacted law on unilaterally alleged grounds of constitutional inconsistency,” he said.

He noted that the President would ordinarily have assented to the law before it came into force.

“Remember the President assented to the law before it became law, unless in a situation where the Executive had declined assent and that decision was overridden by the National Assembly,” Layonu added.

Layonu emphasised that once a law has been duly passed and has come into force, only the Judiciary has the authority to pronounce on its constitutionality.

“Once a law is duly passed, it is only the Judiciary that can declare it unconstitutional,” he said.

The Chairman of Egbe Amofin Oodua, Isiaka Olagunju (SAN), said the Constitution clearly separates governmental powers among the three arms-  the Legislature, the Executive and the Judiciary.

He explained that legislative powers are vested in the National Assembly, while executive powers are vested in the President, Vice President and Ministers, but do not extend to lawmaking.

Olagunju added that where the President believes a law is inconsistent with the Constitution, the proper course is to seek judicial interpretation or legislative amendment.

“What he ought to do is to approach the court for judicial interpretation of the law and for the setting aside of that law on the ground of inconsistency,” he said. “Or draw the attention of the National Assembly to the alleged inconsistent provision and seek its amendment.”

Prof. Sam Erugo, SAN, cautioned that the Presidency cannot rely on an Executive Order to override provisions of the PIA, even when it perceives it as inconsistent with the Constitution.

“Any statutory provision inconsistent with the Constitution is null and void to the extent of its inconsistency. It cannot be remedied or amended by Executive Order. An Executive Order cannot take the place of legislation, which is the exclusive reserve of the legislature in a constitutional democracy such as we pretend to be running.”

But Mofesomo Tayo-Oyetibo (SAN) observed that Executive Order 9, issued by the Presidency, is defensible as an assertion of constitutional supremacy in the administration of petroleum revenues and does not override or repeal the Petroleum Industry Act.

Reacting to the ongoing debate over the scope of executive powers under the 1999 Constitution (as amended), Tayo-Oyetibo said the controversy must be understood within the proper constitutional framework.

“The starting point is section 1(1) and (3) of the Constitution: the Constitution is supreme, and any law inconsistent with it is void to the extent of the inconsistency,” he said.

“An Act of the National Assembly derives its validity from the Constitution and cannot stand above it,” Tayo-Oyetibo said.

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He argued that it is therefore inaccurate to frame the issue as whether an Executive Order can “override” an Act of the National Assembly. “An Executive Order cannot repeal or amend an Act; only the legislature can do that,” Tayo-Oyetibo said.

However, he noted that where the Executive forms a considered view, especially on the advice of the Attorney-General of the Federation, that certain statutory provisions conflict with the Constitution, “the President is constitutionally bound to align executive conduct with the Constitution, not with the inconsistent statute.”

According to the senior lawyer, section 5(1) of the Constitution vests executive powers in the President for the execution and maintenance of the Constitution and all laws.

“That provision does not reduce the President to a mechanical enforcer of every statutory text regardless of constitutional implications,” he said. “His oath of office requires him to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution.”

He emphasised that if, in the course of administering the PIA, constitutional concerns arise, particularly relating to section 162 and the mandatory structure of the Federation Account, the President cannot knowingly supervise an unconstitutional fiscal arrangement pending future litigation.

“The supremacy clause in section 1(3) operates automatically. Courts declare inconsistency, which exists ab initio; they do not create it,” he said.

“While judicial pronouncement is final and authoritative, prior judicial validation is not a constitutional precondition for executive fidelity to the Constitution. To insist otherwise would mean the President must implement what he reasonably believes to be unconstitutional until a court declares otherwise. That would invert the logic of constitutional governance,” he added.

Tayo-Oyetibo clarified that Executive Order 9 does not repeal the Petroleum Industry Act and does not purport to legislate.

“Rather, it directs executive agencies on how to administer petroleum revenues in a manner the President considers consistent with constitutional requirements,” he said. “I think that is permissible within the framework of Section 5 of the Constitution.”

He described the Order as an effort to prevent constitutional breaches in the management of public revenues, adding that those who hold a different view remain free to seek judicial interpretation.

Members of the Organised Private Sector have said that Executive Order No.9 of 2026 will not scare investors away but will instead enhance transparency and reposition the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited for greater efficiency and growth.

In separate telephone interviews with The PUNCH, private sector leaders played down fears of investor flight, describing the administration’s decision as a step towards improved transparency and policy consistency.

The Director-General of the Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association, Adewale Oyerinde, said the order aligns with global investor expectations.

He said, “The Executive Order will, among other things, enhance transparency and operational integrity of the revenue accrued. If there’s one thing that foreign investors desire, it is transparency and predictability of any process. In our opinion, the Executive Order is in the right order.”

Oyerinde maintained that clarity in revenue management would strengthen investor confidence rather than weaken it.

“If there’s one thing that foreign investors desire, it is transparency and predictability of any process,” NECA’s DG remarked. “In our opinion, the Executive Order is in the right order.”

Similarly, President of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Leye Kupoluyi, called for calm among the business community, stressing that honesty and transparency remain critical to attracting and retaining international investors.

“I don’t think this executive order will scare investors away because, like every other operational thing, honesty and transparency are the key words there. In a country, as I’ve seen, that’s been spelt out by the president, it’s honestly implemented as the executive order is. That is exactly what the international community expected,” Kupoluyi said.

He added, “They actually want transparency and consistency of policy. That is what it is. We know our experience in the recent past, when the revenue went to NNPC, was not fully accounted for. We noticed further in the last 10 or 15 years, when they are asked to disclose what is coming in, they have not been clear.”

Kupoluyi described the development as largely an internal restructuring between the government and its oil company and not a threat to joint venture partners or private investors.

“Since for joint ventures, it does not affect them. I think this is an internal thing between the government and NNPC, which is an organ created by the government,” he said.

On concerns that the directive could affect the proposed public listing of the oil firm, Kupoluyi said the order could, in fact, strengthen its corporate structure.

“I think it will even give NNPC a more robust way of being able to organise itself as a private entity. Presently, there are so many business opportunities for NNPC, which we all know. It’s quite big, and they are very robust, and it’s an opportunity,” Kupoluyi said.

He added, “I think it will be a better challenge for NNPC to go to a greater height. They have a lot of similar organisations that they can learn from. To me, it is an opportunity for NNPC to move to a greater height.”

The OPS leaders insisted that consistent implementation of the order, alongside reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act, would reinforce Nigeria’s commitment to transparency and strengthen investor confidence in the oil and gas sector. 

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FG unveils ‘fly now, pay later’ credit scheme for domestic flights

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The Federal Government has introduced a new consumer credit product, “Fly Now, Pay Later,” aimed at making domestic air travel more accessible to Nigerians.

The Nigerian Consumer Credit Corporation disclosed this in an announcement posted on its X handle on Tuesday, stating that the initiative would allow eligible customers to book local flights and repay the cost over time through structured financing.

According to CREDICORP, the scheme is designed to remove the upfront financial barrier that often delays important trips for many Nigerians.

“Through this initiative, eligible customers can book domestic flights today and repay the cost over time through structured financing, removing the upfront barrier that often delays important trips,” the statement read.

CREDICORP said the solution is being delivered in partnership with MyVisaro and Alert Microfinance Bank as part of efforts to expand access to responsible consumer credit.

To apply, the corporation urged interested individuals to visit visaro.ng and book a flight to any city in Nigeria.

 

FG unveils ‘fly now, pay later’ credit scheme for domestic flights

“At CREDICORP, we remain committed to expanding responsible consumer credit and enabling Nigerians live better now, including flying locally. Fly now. Pay later. Opportunity shouldn’t wait,” it added.

The corporation noted that the initiative aligns with its broader mandate to promote financial inclusion and improve access to essential services through innovative credit solutions.

The launch comes amid growing concerns over the rising cost of domestic air travel in Nigeria, with many citizens facing affordability challenges despite increasing demand for intra-country connectivity.

During the 2025 Yuletide period, one-way fares on some domestic routes rose by about.

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Airlines have attributed the high ticket prices to the rising cost of aviation fuel, foreign exchange constraints, and other operational expenses.

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Petrol, diesel vessels arrive Nigeria amid price surge

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As Nigerians contend with rising petrol prices, vessels carrying 129,000 metric tonnes of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) and Automotive Gas Oil (diesel) are expected to dock at Lagos Ports between March 14 and 17, 2026, The PUNCH reports.

This came as officials of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority explained why some importers were still importing PMS despite the agency’s position that no petrol import licence had been issued this year.

According to the Nigerian Ports Authority’s Shipping Position Daily obtained on Monday, a vessel, Mosunmola, carrying 20,000MT of PMS, arrived at Lagos Ports via the Bulk Oil Plant on Sunday, March 14, 2026. Another vessel, Kobe, with 22,000MT of AGO, docked at Kirikiri Lighter Terminal Phase 2, Tin Can Island Port, on the same day.

On Tuesday, March 17, Bora is scheduled to arrive at Kirikiri Lighter Terminal 3B with 27,000MT of PMS, while Ashabi will bring 30,000MT of AGO to the same terminal.

Additionally, Oluwajuwonlo offloaded 15,000MT of PMS at Calabar Ports through Ecomarine Nigeria Limited on Sunday, March 15. Mosunmola will also deliver 15,000MT of PMS to Calabar Ports via a North West Petroleum Gas Co Limited terminal on March 17.

The vessel arrivals coincide with ongoing fuel price hikes nationwide. Nigerians currently face surging petrol costs after Dangote Petroleum Refinery raised its gantry price for PMS to N1,175 per litre, pushing retail prices above N1,200 per litre. The increase has affected transport fares and driven up the cost of goods and services nationwide.

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Economic analysts, labour unions, and private sector leaders have called on the Federal Government to provide relief measures, citing rising crude oil prices driven by escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. Some stakeholders suggested subsidising petrol to mitigate the impact on citizens and businesses, warning that continued price increases could exacerbate inflation.

Petrol prices have reached between N1,200 and N1,300 per litre in several areas, with projections suggesting costs could exceed N1,500 or approach N2,000 per litre if the Middle East crisis persists.

Marketers speak

The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria confirmed that independent marketers are prepared to lift imported products to ensure availability and competition.

IPMAN spokesperson Chinedu Ukadike said, “We, the independent marketers, are always on the receiving side. Wherever the product is coming from, and it is in the tanks of depot owners or NNPC, we will buy it. The most important thing is availability.

“If NMDPRA made a statement categorically that there is no import licence, I don’t know where this one is coming from. But we are ready to receive the products and sell. Maybe that will also breed competition, and this price volatility may have sustainability. So, I think it is also a welcome development.”

Ukadike added that the vessels might be operating under licences issued long ago and that delays at sea—particularly around the Strait of Hormuz—may explain their late arrival.

“It might also be an old importation licence issued since last year. It is acceptable. The imported products would not have any impact on prices unless the price of crude oil declines. The price depends on the volume and cost of the product because there is nothing like a reduction in prices when Brent is still selling for over $100,” he said.

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NMDPRA explains imports

The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority has clarified that no import licences were issued in the first quarter of 2026, asserting that shortfalls in February were covered by leftover stocks from January and existing refinery output.

While IPMAN and other stakeholders supported the halt on fuel import licences, major dealers and importers argued that imports were still necessary to meet national demand. February figures show Dangote refinery produced an average of 36 million litres per day, while national consumption was about 56 million litres per day, leaving an apparent gap.

A source within NMDPRA, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the lack of authorisation to speak on the matter, explained that the refinery’s unsold stocks were rolled over due to weather-related export delays in Europe at the end of 2025, closing the supply gap in February.

“The shortfall rolled over from previous stocks. These things are simple. Our fact sheets are published monthly. There were rollover stocks. Dangote didn’t export for a long time towards the end of last year. So, it was those rolled-over stocks that it supplied. Both marketers and Dangote are only jostling for market shares. Has there been a shortage? No!” the source said.

The regulator also refuted online claims that new licences had been issued, noting that licences are granted quarterly. “Those that were issued towards the end of last year were still being used. A licence for importation is not like taking money to the supermarket. It takes time for vessels to arrive. We have not issued any import licence this year,” the official said.

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Nigeria has historically relied on imported refined petroleum products due to limited domestic refining capacity. However, the operational Dangote refinery, producing 650,000 barrels per day, has shifted the downstream dynamics. NMDPRA confirmed that domestic refineries supplied 36.5 million litres per day in February 2026, with imports contributing just three million litres, representing roughly 92 per cent of the national daily supply.

Chief Executive of NMDPRA, Saidu Mohammed, warned against returning to heavy import dependence. “We have not issued a single licence for petrol importation this year. Some interests still push for large-scale importation despite our progress in domestic refining,” he said during a meeting with a PUNCH delegation at the agency’s Abuja headquarters.

The recent vessel arrivals, while ensuring availability, largely reflect past import licences and logistical delays, rather than new authorisations from NMDPRA.

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US-Iran war: Petrol price surge sparks relief calls

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There is pressure on the Federal Government to introduce economic relief measures as the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran drives up global crude oil prices and pushes petrol costs to record levels across Nigeria.

Industry operators, economists, labour unions and private sector leaders have urged the government to deploy the expected windfall from higher oil prices to cushion the impact on citizens and businesses, warning that soaring fuel prices are already deepening economic hardship.

The stakeholders sought some palliative measures to cushion the effect of the rising petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel prices, especially as this may heighten the volatility of the country’s inflation figures. Some even called on the government to subsidise the pump prices of petrol.

The calls come amid reports that petrol prices have climbed to between N1,200 and N1,300 per litre in different parts of the country, while projections from industry players indicated that prices could exceed N1,500 per litre and potentially approach N2,000 per litre if the Middle East crisis persists.

As the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran entered the third week with no reconciliation in sight, there are concerns that crude oil prices would continue to rise, and this would drag petrol prices above the affordability level.

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has been blaming the war for its recent increase in gantry prices, which rose from less than N800 per litre before the war to N1,175 as of the time of filing this report. Recall that crude oil was around $68 per barrel during the crisis, but it stood at $103 as of Sunday evening.

Cut down taxes, charges

In an interview with The PUNCH, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria asked the Federal Government to cut off some taxes and charges on petroleum products to reduce the pump prices of fuel.

IPMAN spokesman, Chinedu Ukadike, said this became necessary to stop the price of petrol from further skyrocketing. According to him, there are charges from the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency, the Nigerian Ports Authority, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, and others.

The Managing Director of the Dangote refinery said last week that the company paid over 40 charges and taxes to different government agencies.

“The government should cut down some of these taxes, especially the NIMASA taxes and the rest of them. It will help in bringing down the price of petroleum products. Some of these depot charges, NPA charges, NMDPRA charges, and others – some of these things are supposed to go away now that we are facing a very serious challenge for us to get better. But if they continue to stay, it means petroleum products will continue to go high,” he said.

Aside from this, Ukadike said it is imperative to fix the pipelines to reduce the cost of distribution. “The government should give marching orders to ensure that these pipelines are repaired. Once these pipelines are repaired, it will also ease transportation and haulage, making fuels a bit cheaper. It is cheaper to transport fuel through the pipelines.

Ukadike noted that even if the government cannot subsidise petrol, it can try petroleum equalisation to make sure petrol sells at the same rate in all parts of the country.

“With the petroleum equalisation fund, the government will pay transportation costs of petroleum products to enable everybody to buy petroleum products at lower prices in faraway places. Because now, petroleum products are even higher in the North than in the Southwest, where the refinery is located,” Ukadike noted, praying that the Middle East tension is de-escalated as soon as possible.

He urged the government to deploy more CNG vehicles and kits to reduce transportation costs.

Invest in CNG

Members of the Organised Private Sector urged the Federal Government to channel the additional revenue from rising crude oil prices into strategic investments such as Compressed Natural Gas transportation, support for domestic refineries, and settling outstanding debts to gas suppliers to boost electricity generation, rather than returning to any form of fuel subsidy.

In separate interviews with The PUNCH, the stakeholders stated that while the surge in global oil prices due to the Middle East conflict has increased Nigeria’s earnings from crude oil exports, the government should deploy targeted support to the economy and avoid using the extra revenue to cushion petrol prices through subsidy schemes.

The President of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Leye Kupoluyi, said Nigeria must use the opportunity to deepen investments in domestic refining and alternative fuel options.

He urged the government to channel part of the oil windfall into supporting local refining capacity, including modular refineries. “Can we do a naira exchange so that a portion of this crude goes to refineries that are refining locally? People are saying that Dangote is not the only refinery in Nigeria. We have modular refineries that we can encourage to scale up. The government should not go back to fuel subsidies,” he said.

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The LCCI president noted that selling crude to domestic refineries in naira could help strengthen the local petroleum value chain and stabilise the supply of refined products in the country. Kupoluyi also urged the government to intensify efforts to promote the use of compressed natural gas in the transportation sector.

“Why can’t we have duty-free incentives in converting many of our vehicles, even private vehicles, from petrol to CNG? If we can take most of our public transport out of this petroleum situation and move them to CNG, you will see that the effect on petrol demand will come down,” Kupoluyi stated.

He added that encouraging solar power adoption would reduce pressure on the national grid and allow the electricity supply to focus more on industrial production.

Similarly, the Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, urged the government to deploy fiscal incentives to reduce the cost of production for operators in the petroleum value chain.

“The best the government can do is to take advantage of this additional revenue to deploy fiscal incentives to those who are producing the refined petroleum products. If there can be some compassion for players in the value chain to reduce their costs, they can, in turn, reduce their prices,” Yusuf said.

He added that the government could also use the additional oil revenue to expand mass transportation systems across the country. “Government should invest more in mass transit at all levels of government. More investment in public transportation will help reduce the pressure on people who rely on petrol for mobility,” Yusuf urged.

The economist also stressed that improving the electricity supply would significantly reduce the country’s dependence on petrol and diesel. “Government should also do more in providing electricity because if you have electricity, you rely less on diesel,” Yusuf said.

He noted that part of the additional oil earnings could be used to offset debts owed to gas suppliers, which have contributed to the persistent power supply challenges in the country. “If the government can address the debts to gas suppliers and improve electricity generation, people will rely less on buying petrol and diesel,” Yusuf stated.

NLC demands govt intervention

In a statement on Sunday, the Nigeria Labour Congress called for urgent government intervention, warning that workers are already struggling to cope with soaring fuel costs.

In the statement signed by its President, Joe Ajaero, the union said petrol prices have climbed to between N1,170 and N1,300 per litre, worsening hardship for Nigerian workers. “The Nigeria Labour Congress voices the collective anguish of millions of Nigerian workers bearing the brutal cost of a global crisis they did not create,” the statement said.

The labour union argued that the crisis has exposed weaknesses in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector and questioned claims that local refining would shield the country from global price volatility. It noted that the Dangote refinery had adjusted prices in line with global oil market movements, passing the higher cost on to consumers.

The NLC renewed calls for the government to restore operations at Nigeria’s public refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna, arguing that stronger domestic refining capacity could help reduce exposure to international price shocks.

It also demanded measures to ease the economic burden on workers, including a wage award, cost-of-living allowance, expanded social transfers, and tax relief for low-income earners.

Citing projections by the Nigeria Economic Summit Group, the union said Nigeria could earn up to N30tn in additional revenue from rising oil prices linked to the Middle East crisis.

The labour body urged the government to channel any windfall into programmes that would ease the burden on citizens rather than allowing the funds to be lost through inefficiencies. “The expected oil windfall must be used to cushion the negative effects of the crisis on Nigerians,” the NLC said.

Meanwhile, the Managing Director of Afrinvest Securities Limited, Ayodeji Ebo, said Nigeria is benefiting from higher crude oil prices, but the same development is worsening fuel costs for consumers.

According to him, crude oil prices are currently trading between $95 and $105 per barrel, far above Nigeria’s budget benchmark of about $65 per barrel, which translates to stronger oil earnings and improved foreign exchange inflows for the government.

However, he warned that the surge is simultaneously increasing the landing cost of refined petroleum products. “Petrol prices could move from around N700–N900 per litre to above N1,500, with industry projections, including those by the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria, suggesting prices could even approach N2,000 per litre if the Middle East crisis persists,” the economist told The PUNCH.

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He added that diesel prices have also surged by more than 50 per cent, approaching N1,700–N1,800 per litre, a development he said could significantly raise transportation, logistics, and production costs across the economy.

“These increases will likely push inflation up by another three to five per cent, meaning that while government revenue rises, household purchasing power declines,” he noted.

He added that the government can consider tax relief, transportation support, or limited subsidies delivered through a digital verification system so that intervention reaches the right beneficiaries and can be properly monitored,” he stated.

An analyst, Ilias Aliyu, said the current situation presents a paradox for Nigeria, where rising oil prices increase government revenue while simultaneously pushing up the cost of petrol for citizens.

“I definitely think we have an issue because the more the price of oil goes up, the more Nigeria gets more money, but the more citizens pay more money for the pump price,” he told one of our correspondents.

Aliyu argued that while the government may need to cushion the impact on citizens, any intervention should be carefully structured to avoid the abuse that plagued past subsidy regimes. According to him, a direct pump-price subsidy tied to the supply chain could help limit leakages.

“The best option is for the government to pay a subsidy at source, maybe from the pump price directly. If they give it to people, it may actually be syphoned. But if it is paid through each tank that has been loaded, for instance, from the Dangote refinery, it will reduce the chances of diversion,” he stated.

Aliyu noted that other oil-producing countries have used strategic reserves or regulatory buffers to stabilise domestic fuel prices during global crises, a capacity Nigeria may not currently possess.

“In some countries, their regulators have enough reserves that they can deploy to push the effect of rising prices for the next three months. But I don’t think we have such a buffer in Nigeria,” he doubted.

Given the uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical crisis and how long it may last, he said it would be reasonable for the government to consider temporary relief measures. “It is ideal that they support citizens at this point, especially since we do not know how long this situation will last,” Aliyu added.

Businesses squeezed

The Chief Executive Officer of the CPPE, Yusuf, further said that the surge in global energy prices is worsening an already difficult operating environment for firms that rely heavily on petrol and diesel generators amid an unreliable electricity supply.

In an advisory note titled ‘Mitigating the Impact of Energy Cost Escalation: What Businesses and Government Should Do’, released on Sunday, Yusuf warned that escalating fuel costs are squeezing business margins and threatening enterprise sustainability.

“The current surge in global energy prices, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, has intensified cost pressures for businesses across many economies. In Nigeria, the impact is especially severe because enterprises depend heavily on petrol and diesel to power their operations amid persistent electricity supply challenges,” he stated.

According to him, the rising cost of fuel is also pushing up transportation and distribution expenses, further increasing the overall cost of doing business.

“The combined effect is a significant escalation in operating expenses, mounting pressure on profit margins, and heightened risks to business sustainability, particularly for small and medium enterprises,” Yusuf said.

He noted that many businesses are already grappling with high inflation, elevated interest rates, and weak consumer purchasing power, warning that rising energy costs could further weaken economic activity if not addressed.

“Businesses are already contending with multiple macroeconomic pressures, including high inflation, elevated interest rates, and weak consumer purchasing power. The latest escalation in energy costs, therefore, compounds an already challenging operating environment,” he said.

Yusuf cautioned that without deliberate adjustments by businesses and supportive policy interventions by the government, the energy price shock could erode corporate profitability and slow economic growth.

To cushion the impact, the CPPE advised businesses to improve energy efficiency by reviewing their energy consumption patterns and reducing waste. “Businesses should intensify efforts to improve energy efficiency within their operations as a key strategy for managing rising fuel costs,” Yusuf said.

The organisation called for expanded fiscal and regulatory incentives to encourage the adoption of renewable energy solutions by businesses. These incentives, Yusuf said, could include tax relief for solar installations, import duty waivers on renewable energy equipment, and fiscal support for investments in energy-efficient technologies.

He also stressed the need for affordable financing to help businesses transition to alternative energy sources. He urged the government to expand electricity generation capacity, strengthen transmission infrastructure, and improve the efficiency and financial viability of electricity distribution networks across the country.

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NESG opposes subsidy

However, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group cautioned against the reintroduction of petrol subsidies despite rising transport and food costs. The policy advisory body stated this in a report titled ‘Boom Not Gloom: Nigeria’s Optimal Policy Response to the US/Israel–Iran War’.

According to the NESG, the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East could create a temporary fiscal windfall for Nigeria through higher crude oil prices, but policymakers must resist pressure to increase spending or reverse major reforms, particularly the removal of fuel subsidies.

The group warned that the approaching election cycle and rising cost-of-living pressures may prompt demands from political actors and interest groups for quick relief measures that could undermine fiscal discipline.

The report stated, “The perceived fiscal windfall, combined with the approaching election cycle, may generate pressure from subnational governments, legislators, and organised groups for higher spending and short-term palliative measures.

“Managing these pressures without reversing recent reforms will be a key test of fiscal discipline and policy credibility. In particular, calls to reintroduce fuel subsidies as a response to rising transport and food costs should be resisted, as this would risk reinstating the fiscal distortions that recent reforms sought to eliminate.”

The NESG explained that Nigeria historically suffered from what it described as the “oil-exporter–refined-product-importer paradox”, where rising global oil prices simultaneously boosted export revenues while increasing the cost of imported refined petroleum products.

According to the report, higher fuel prices raise logistics and transportation costs, which eventually filter into broader consumer price inflation across the economy.

The NESG stated, “Following the removal of the subsidy and the shift towards market-based fuel pricing, global oil price increases now transmit more directly to domestic pump prices. Higher fuel prices raise transportation and logistics costs, feeding into broader consumer price inflation.”

Nevertheless, the group said Nigeria now has an important buffer against global fuel supply disruptions due to the emergence of domestic refining capacity, particularly the Dangote refinery.

It noted that local refining has significantly reduced Nigeria’s dependence on imported petrol and improved the resilience of the domestic fuel market during geopolitical crises.

“Even with these buffers, the inflation pass-through remains significant. Model simulations suggest that the oil price shock could add between 1.3 and 5.2 percentage points to headline inflation over the next two to three quarters, depending on the crisis scenario,” it said.

The group also warned that the global oil shock could temporarily slow Nigeria’s ongoing decline in inflation, even though the long-term disinflation trajectory may remain intact.

If prices climb to around $110 per barrel, inflation could increase by roughly 2.9 percentage points, while a severe crisis scenario with oil prices at $130 per barrel could push inflation up by about 5.2 percentage points.

The NESG added that without domestic refining capacity, the inflation impact would have been significantly worse. The report further explained that higher oil prices could strengthen Nigeria’s external position by boosting foreign exchange inflows from crude exports.

It is projected that the country could receive additional foreign exchange inflows of up to $7.3bn under a moderate crisis scenario, potentially supporting the naira and strengthening the Central Bank of Nigeria’s external reserves.

“The naira could initially appreciate before facing renewed depreciation pressures as capital flows reverse. Even in this scenario, net FX inflows could still reach about $18.6bn, enabling the CBN to increase reserves by up to $7.4bn, potentially lifting gross reserves above $57bn.

“Overall, the exchange-rate channel is supportive of naira appreciation and reserve accumulation under contained crisis scenarios, but becomes more uncertain under a prolonged global shock. The appropriate policy response is to allow the exchange rate to adjust to fundamentals, intervene only to smooth excessive volatility, and opportunistically build reserves during periods of strong oil inflows,” it stated.

However, the NESG cautioned that the benefits could be undermined if the conflict escalates into a prolonged global crisis that triggers capital flight from emerging markets.

The group stressed that the optimal policy response for Nigeria would be to save oil windfalls, strengthen external reserves, maintain subsidy reforms, and expand targeted social protection programmes for vulnerable households instead of blanket fuel subsidies.

It added, “Historically, oil windfalls have weakened fiscal discipline in Nigeria, particularly during politically sensitive periods. The NESG also recommended using part of the windfall to reduce Nigeria’s rising debt burden, noting that interest payments are projected to reach N15.52tn in 2026, consuming nearly half of federal revenues.

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