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Oil revenue row: Presidency defends Tinubu as legal titans split over Executive Order

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The Presidency has defended President Bola Tinubu’s Executive Order, which halted revenue deductions by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and other agencies.

It said the Petroleum Industry Act violates and is not superior to the Nigerian Constitution.

The Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, stated that criticism of the directive by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria demonstrated a lack of understanding of the constitutional supremacy over ordinary legislation.

“PENGASSAN is focusing on PIA alone. The President’s action is based on the Nigerian Constitution, which PIA violates in allowing the deductions that the President has now stopped. PIA is not superior to our constitution,” Onanuga stated in a response to inquiries by The PUNCH on Monday.

The Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria had on Friday opposed the presidential fiat, accusing the President of violating the PIA with his revenue retention order.

But the presidential spokesman insisted the union made a “knee-jerk reaction” without studying the constitutional provisions underpinning the directive.

“PENGASSAN should have read the constitution before making its knee-jerk reaction,” he said.

Onanuga explained that the Executive Order derives its authority from section 5 of the 1999 Constitution, which vests executive powers of the Federation in the President, including the maintenance of the Constitution and implementation of federal laws.

He said the directive is further anchored on section 44(3) of the Constitution, which vests ownership, control, and derivative rights in all minerals, mineral oils, and natural gas in Nigeria in the Government of the Federation.

According to the presidential aide, the Executive Order seeks to restore constitutional revenue entitlements of the Federal, State, and Local Governments, which were “taken away in 2021 by the Petroleum Industry Act.”

“The PIA created structural and legal channels through which substantial Federation revenues are lost through deductions, sundry charges, and fees,” Onanuga stated.

But the union argued that the directive would cripple the company’s ability to fund operations and fulfil its statutory obligations, including contributions to the Frontier Exploration Fund, critical for hydrocarbon exploration in 2026.

The PUNCH reported that the directive has sparked deep concerns within the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, and the board and management of the Midstream and Downstream Gas Infrastructure Fund.

However, the Presidency maintained that the order is necessary to plug revenue leakages and ensure that funds constitutionally due to all tiers of government are not diverted through statutory deductions.

Also, Presidential media aide Sunday Dare defended the Order in a post on X, stating that section 80(1) of the Constitution mandates that all revenues raised or received by the Federation must be paid into the Consolidated Revenue Fund.

He said Executive Order 9 does not create new law or amend the PIA but operationalises constitutional provisions by directing the remittance of petroleum revenues — including royalties, taxes, profit oil and gas, penalties, and related receipts — into constitutionally recognised accounts.

“EO9 does not intrude into legislative competence,” Dare stated, adding that if its validity is disputed, the Judiciary remains the proper forum.

Pending any judicial determination, he said, the Executive is duty-bound to protect Federation revenues and uphold constitutional supremacy.

The PIA, signed into law in August 2021 by former President Muhammadu Buhari, granted NNPCL significant operational and financial autonomy, including the right to retain revenues for reinvestment before remitting proceeds to the Federation Account.

Section 54 of the Act specifically exempts NNPCL from the Fiscal Responsibility Act and allows it to operate on commercial terms without certain government financial regulations.

However, protests have continued o mount over the executive order, with a cross-section of senior advocates faulting the President’s decision.

The senior lawyers raised constitutional concerns over the legality of Executive Order 9, arguing that President Tinubu lacks the authority to override or set aside an Act of the National Assembly through an executive instrument.

Eight SANs, including Lekan Ojo, Adeola Adedipe, Paul Obi, Wale Balogun, Dr Wahab Shittu, Dr Abiodun Layonu, Isiaka Olagunju and Mofesomo Tayo-Oyetibo, asserted the President cannot set aside an Act of the National Assembly through an Executive Order, insisting that only the judiciary can declare a law unconstitutional.

Speaking in a separate interview with The PUNCH on Monday, President of the Nigerian Bar Association, Afam Osigwe (SAN), maintained that while executive orders may guide administrative actions, they cannot supplant or contradict existing laws duly enacted by the National Assembly.

Osigwe was emphatic in his position that the President has no powers to modify the law. ‘’No, he does not. A president cannot, by executive order, modify or alter a law. A president doesn’t have the power.”

Ojo similarly stressed that the Petroleum Industry Act is an Act of the National Assembly, “hence the President cannot by any form of executive order, amend, alter or abrogate or nullify any provisions of that act.”

Speaking further, he explained that the executive powers of the President are as prescribed by law and the Constitution, and where there is no enabling power or Act, the President does not have any power.

“Executive order is like instruments to give effect to executive decisions and laws. Where the law has prescribed a particular thing, the President cannot, by executive order, do the opposite. So, the President does not have the power and cannot use an executive order to amend provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act,” Ojo said.

He noted that it is only the National Assembly that can amend or repeal the Act and that if there are justifiable reasons, assuming there are, as to why certain sections of that Act should be nullified or should not be followed for whatever reasons, the best thing is for the National Assembly to take necessary steps towards effecting necessary amendments to the Act.

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‘’That is the only legitimate way by which it can be done. Not via an executive order,” he stressed.

He added, “In other words, an amendment to any act of the National Assembly cannot be effected via an executive order. As a matter of fact, the court itself does not have the power to amend. That will amount to judicial legislation.”

He noted that, as such, having executive legislation is not allowed.

“We can also not have executive legislation. Neither judicial legislation nor executive legislation is permitted under the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. So any attempt to amend an executive order is nothing but a nullity, and it is to that extent ineffective. It is an exercise in futility,” Ojo said.

Also, Adedipe explained that executive orders are limited to administrative convenience and cannot replace the constitutional law-making process.

“Executive Orders help with functions and administrative convenience.  Law making process is set out in the Constitution, and the same cannot be substituted by an executive fiat,” Adedipe said.

“Any Executive Order that derogates from administrative implementation of an existing law is likely to be annulled when challenged in court.”

On his part, Obi flatly rejected the notion that a president could overreach the legislature through executive directives.

“No, the president does not have the power to overrule or overreach an Act of Parliament through executive orders. No,” he said.

He further noted that the Constitution clearly separates the powers of the executive, legislature and judiciary.

“He is the president in the first place because the constitution gives him powers to act as the head of the executive after the election.

‘’The parliament, under the same constitution, gives them powers to make laws and even gives them powers to override a presidential assent to a bill. The same way it gives the judiciary judicial powers, in section six of the constitution,” he argued.

He further elaborated on the legislative process, noting that where a president withholds assent to a bill, the National Assembly retains the power to override that decision.

He added that the only lawful route open to a president dissatisfied with an existing Act is to initiate an amendment or propose a new law.

“What he can do is either to sponsor a bill to amend that act or sponsor a fresh executive bill for a new law that would repeal the one already made. As long as that act of parliament is valid and is extant and in operation. Presidential executive orders cannot override an act of the national assembly.’’

Drawing a parallel with the United States, Obi cited a recent decision of the US Supreme Court, which nullified President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs.

Balogun underscored the supremacy of substantive legislation over subsidiary instruments, stressing that executive orders must derive their authority from existing laws or the Constitution.

“It is without any doubt that an inferior and or subsidiary legislation cannot override a substantive Act of Parliament.  An Executive Order is indeed a directive exercisable by the Executive e.g. the President, which, however, must be traceable to the law at all times,” Balogun said.

Shittu, in a statement titled, ‘’Scope of Executive Power,’ pointed out that the issue raises “profound constitutional questions regarding the scope and limits of executive power,” particularly in relation to constitutional supremacy, separation of powers and judicial review.

Citing section 1(1) of the Constitution, he noted that the Constitution is supreme and binding on all authorities and persons throughout the country.

He added that while section 1(3) provides that any law inconsistent with the Constitution shall be void to the extent of the inconsistency, the determination of such inconsistency does not lie with the executive.

“Although the Constitution declares inconsistent laws void, the determination of such inconsistency is not left to the subjective discretion of the executive,” he said. “It is a matter that falls within the constitutional competence of the judiciary.”

Shittu stressed that the doctrine of separation of powers clearly delineates responsibilities among the three arms of government.

He explained that section 4 of the Constitution vests legislative powers in the National Assembly, while section 5 vests executive powers in the President for the “execution and maintenance” of the Constitution and laws made by the National Assembly.

“The operative words are ‘execution and maintenance,’” he said. “The President’s constitutional role is to implement and enforce laws, not to alter, suspend or nullify them.”

According to him, executive power is expressly made subject to the provisions of the Constitution and laws enacted by the National Assembly, making it subordinate to legislative authority within the constitutional framework.

Shittu described Executive Orders as administrative instruments used to direct the operations of the executive branch and facilitate the implementation of laws and policies. However, he maintained that they do not possess legislative character.

“They are inherently subordinate instruments and cannot override, amend or repeal provisions of an Act of the National Assembly,” he said. “Their purpose is to facilitate implementation, not to create or invalidate substantive law.”

He further argued that the constitutional hierarchy of norms places the Constitution at the apex, followed by Acts of the National Assembly, and then subsidiary legislation and executive instruments.

“Where an Executive Order conflicts with a valid Act of the National Assembly, the Act prevails,” Shittu stated. “Allowing Executive Orders to override Acts would effectively transfer legislative authority to the Executive and undermine democratic governance.”

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Relying on judicial authorities, Shittu cited the Supreme Court’s decision in Attorney-General of the Federation v. Abubakar, where the court held that the President must act strictly within constitutional limits.

He also referenced Attorney-General of Lagos State v. Attorney-General of the Federation, in which the apex court reaffirmed the supremacy of the Constitution and the duty of all arms of government to operate within their assigned constitutional boundaries.

On the question of whether the President can unilaterally set aside provisions of a duly enacted law on grounds of alleged constitutional inconsistency, Shittu was unequivocal.

“The power to determine constitutional validity is vested exclusively in the judiciary,” he said.

He cited the Supreme Court’s decision in INEC v. Musa, where the court struck down provisions of the Electoral Act that were inconsistent with the Constitution, affirming that only the courts can declare a law unconstitutional.

Similarly, he referred to Military Governor of Lagos State v. Ojukwu, where the Supreme Court warned against executive lawlessness and stressed that government must operate within the confines of the law.

“These authorities establish beyond doubt that the President cannot unilaterally suspend, invalidate or set aside provisions of a duly enacted law,” Shittu said.

He added that where the executive believes a statutory provision violates the Constitution, “the appropriate course of action is to challenge the provision in court and seek a declaratory judgment.”

“Until a competent court declares the provision unconstitutional, it remains valid and binding on all persons and authorities, including the President,” he stated.

Shittu warned that permitting the Executive to invalidate statutory provisions without judicial pronouncement would erode the system of checks and balances.

“It would effectively concentrate legislative, executive and judicial powers in one office,” he said. “Such concentration of power would be incompatible with democratic governance and would undermine the rule of law.”

He concluded that under the 1999 Constitution, “an Executive Order cannot override or supersede an Act of the National Assembly,” adding that the constitutional arrangement preserves the supremacy of the Constitution, maintains separation of powers and safeguards the rule of law.

Similarly, Dr Layonu maintained that an Executive Order cannot legally supersede an Act of Parliament.

“An Executive Order is never meant to contradict the law but to further it and make the law workable.”

According to him, any Executive Order that contradicts an existing statute would be invalid.

“The moment an Executive Order contradicts the law, it becomes null and void to the extent of the inconsistency with the law,” he stated.

Layonu further stressed that the Executive cannot unilaterally set aside a duly enacted law on grounds of alleged constitutional inconsistency.

“The Executive as a body cannot constitutionally set aside provisions of a duly enacted law on unilaterally alleged grounds of constitutional inconsistency,” he said.

He noted that the President would ordinarily have assented to the law before it came into force.

“Remember the President assented to the law before it became law, unless in a situation where the Executive had declined assent and that decision was overridden by the National Assembly,” Layonu added.

Layonu emphasised that once a law has been duly passed and has come into force, only the Judiciary has the authority to pronounce on its constitutionality.

“Once a law is duly passed, it is only the Judiciary that can declare it unconstitutional,” he said.

The Chairman of Egbe Amofin Oodua, Isiaka Olagunju (SAN), said the Constitution clearly separates governmental powers among the three arms-  the Legislature, the Executive and the Judiciary.

He explained that legislative powers are vested in the National Assembly, while executive powers are vested in the President, Vice President and Ministers, but do not extend to lawmaking.

Olagunju added that where the President believes a law is inconsistent with the Constitution, the proper course is to seek judicial interpretation or legislative amendment.

“What he ought to do is to approach the court for judicial interpretation of the law and for the setting aside of that law on the ground of inconsistency,” he said. “Or draw the attention of the National Assembly to the alleged inconsistent provision and seek its amendment.”

Prof. Sam Erugo, SAN, cautioned that the Presidency cannot rely on an Executive Order to override provisions of the PIA, even when it perceives it as inconsistent with the Constitution.

“Any statutory provision inconsistent with the Constitution is null and void to the extent of its inconsistency. It cannot be remedied or amended by Executive Order. An Executive Order cannot take the place of legislation, which is the exclusive reserve of the legislature in a constitutional democracy such as we pretend to be running.”

But Mofesomo Tayo-Oyetibo (SAN) observed that Executive Order 9, issued by the Presidency, is defensible as an assertion of constitutional supremacy in the administration of petroleum revenues and does not override or repeal the Petroleum Industry Act.

Reacting to the ongoing debate over the scope of executive powers under the 1999 Constitution (as amended), Tayo-Oyetibo said the controversy must be understood within the proper constitutional framework.

“The starting point is section 1(1) and (3) of the Constitution: the Constitution is supreme, and any law inconsistent with it is void to the extent of the inconsistency,” he said.

“An Act of the National Assembly derives its validity from the Constitution and cannot stand above it,” Tayo-Oyetibo said.

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He argued that it is therefore inaccurate to frame the issue as whether an Executive Order can “override” an Act of the National Assembly. “An Executive Order cannot repeal or amend an Act; only the legislature can do that,” Tayo-Oyetibo said.

However, he noted that where the Executive forms a considered view, especially on the advice of the Attorney-General of the Federation, that certain statutory provisions conflict with the Constitution, “the President is constitutionally bound to align executive conduct with the Constitution, not with the inconsistent statute.”

According to the senior lawyer, section 5(1) of the Constitution vests executive powers in the President for the execution and maintenance of the Constitution and all laws.

“That provision does not reduce the President to a mechanical enforcer of every statutory text regardless of constitutional implications,” he said. “His oath of office requires him to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution.”

He emphasised that if, in the course of administering the PIA, constitutional concerns arise, particularly relating to section 162 and the mandatory structure of the Federation Account, the President cannot knowingly supervise an unconstitutional fiscal arrangement pending future litigation.

“The supremacy clause in section 1(3) operates automatically. Courts declare inconsistency, which exists ab initio; they do not create it,” he said.

“While judicial pronouncement is final and authoritative, prior judicial validation is not a constitutional precondition for executive fidelity to the Constitution. To insist otherwise would mean the President must implement what he reasonably believes to be unconstitutional until a court declares otherwise. That would invert the logic of constitutional governance,” he added.

Tayo-Oyetibo clarified that Executive Order 9 does not repeal the Petroleum Industry Act and does not purport to legislate.

“Rather, it directs executive agencies on how to administer petroleum revenues in a manner the President considers consistent with constitutional requirements,” he said. “I think that is permissible within the framework of Section 5 of the Constitution.”

He described the Order as an effort to prevent constitutional breaches in the management of public revenues, adding that those who hold a different view remain free to seek judicial interpretation.

Members of the Organised Private Sector have said that Executive Order No.9 of 2026 will not scare investors away but will instead enhance transparency and reposition the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited for greater efficiency and growth.

In separate telephone interviews with The PUNCH, private sector leaders played down fears of investor flight, describing the administration’s decision as a step towards improved transparency and policy consistency.

The Director-General of the Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association, Adewale Oyerinde, said the order aligns with global investor expectations.

He said, “The Executive Order will, among other things, enhance transparency and operational integrity of the revenue accrued. If there’s one thing that foreign investors desire, it is transparency and predictability of any process. In our opinion, the Executive Order is in the right order.”

Oyerinde maintained that clarity in revenue management would strengthen investor confidence rather than weaken it.

“If there’s one thing that foreign investors desire, it is transparency and predictability of any process,” NECA’s DG remarked. “In our opinion, the Executive Order is in the right order.”

Similarly, President of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Leye Kupoluyi, called for calm among the business community, stressing that honesty and transparency remain critical to attracting and retaining international investors.

“I don’t think this executive order will scare investors away because, like every other operational thing, honesty and transparency are the key words there. In a country, as I’ve seen, that’s been spelt out by the president, it’s honestly implemented as the executive order is. That is exactly what the international community expected,” Kupoluyi said.

He added, “They actually want transparency and consistency of policy. That is what it is. We know our experience in the recent past, when the revenue went to NNPC, was not fully accounted for. We noticed further in the last 10 or 15 years, when they are asked to disclose what is coming in, they have not been clear.”

Kupoluyi described the development as largely an internal restructuring between the government and its oil company and not a threat to joint venture partners or private investors.

“Since for joint ventures, it does not affect them. I think this is an internal thing between the government and NNPC, which is an organ created by the government,” he said.

On concerns that the directive could affect the proposed public listing of the oil firm, Kupoluyi said the order could, in fact, strengthen its corporate structure.

“I think it will even give NNPC a more robust way of being able to organise itself as a private entity. Presently, there are so many business opportunities for NNPC, which we all know. It’s quite big, and they are very robust, and it’s an opportunity,” Kupoluyi said.

He added, “I think it will be a better challenge for NNPC to go to a greater height. They have a lot of similar organisations that they can learn from. To me, it is an opportunity for NNPC to move to a greater height.”

The OPS leaders insisted that consistent implementation of the order, alongside reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act, would reinforce Nigeria’s commitment to transparency and strengthen investor confidence in the oil and gas sector. 

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Lagos bans petroleum tankers from transporting edible oil

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The Lagos State Government has banned the use of petroleum tankers in the transportation and distribution of edible oil as part of efforts to strengthen food safety, hygiene, and compliance standards across the sector.

The restriction forms part of a broader regulatory framework introduced through a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between the Lagos State Consumer Protection Agency (LASCOPA) and major stakeholders in the edible oil transportation chain.

The agreement involves the Marketers and Sellers of Edible Oil Association of Nigeria (MASEON), the Nigerian Association of Road Transport Owners (NARTO), and the Association of Edible Oil Tanker Drivers of Nigeria under the National Union of Edible Oil Tanker Drivers of Nigeria (ETD/NUEOTDN).

In a statement issued on Friday, LASCOPA said the move was aimed at stopping the use of tankers previously deployed for petroleum and hazardous substances in the transportation of edible oil.

The agency warned that the practice exposes consumers to serious health risks caused by possible contamination from chemical residues left in fuel tankers.

“The key objectives of the agreement include ensuring that tankers designated for edible oil transportation are used exclusively for that purpose; preventing the use of edible oil tankers for petroleum products and hazardous substances,” the statement read.

According to the agency, the MoU introduces a strict compliance framework mandating the exclusive use of food-grade certified tankers for edible oil transportation.

LASCOPA said the framework would also strengthen hygiene standards, improve traceability, and enhance operational monitoring within the edible oil distribution chain.

The agency added that stakeholders have committed to implementing tanker registration and identification systems, periodic inspections, random spot checks, laboratory testing of edible oil samples, and joint enforcement operations to ensure full compliance.

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It further stated that enforcement activities would be intensified under the Lagos State Consumer Protection Agency Law, 2025.

“Stakeholders are committed to tanker registration, identification systems, periodic inspections, random spot checks, laboratory testing of edible oil samples, and joint enforcement operations to ensure compliance,” the statement added.

LASCOPA also said it would step up monitoring activities and investigate consumer complaints as part of efforts to protect public health and improve consumer confidence in food transportation standards across Lagos State.

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NNPC urged to revive refineries after Dangote snub

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The National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, has tackled the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) over its attempt to increase its stake in the Dangote Petroleum Refinery despite the poor state of government-owned refineries.

Ukadike stated this while reacting to comments by the President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, that the refinery rejected requests by the NNPC to increase its 7.25 per cent stake in the $20bn facility.

Dangote had disclosed this during an interview with the Chief Executive Officer of the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund, Nicolai Tangen, monitored by our correspondents on Wednesday.

Reacting to the development, Ukadike questioned why the national oil company was seeking to invest more funds in the privately-owned refinery when the Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna refineries under its control had remained largely inactive despite billions of dollars spent on rehabilitation.

“Why is NNPC trying to invest money in the Dangote refinery when it has three refineries that are not working? Why is NNPC not investing that money in those ones?” Ukadike asked.

He added, “The NNPC did not revive our refineries, but they want to look for where the refinery is already working to put money into it. Does that make sense?”

The IPMAN spokesman said Dangote had the right to reject the offer from the NNPC if he considered it unsuitable for his business interests.

“If Dangote refused to sell more stakes to NNPC, he must have his reasons. Dangote is a businessman. He doesn’t want issues, unnecessary crises, and nepotism. He knows what he wants, and I also think he has enough cash to fund his business,” he stated.

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Ukadike further urged the national oil company to focus on reviving critical oil infrastructure across the country instead of pursuing additional ownership of the refinery. “The NNPC should repair the pipelines and revive the refineries instead of eyeing the Dangote refinery,” he said.

Dangote had stated during the interview that the NNPC was interested in acquiring more shares in the refinery after previously purchasing a 7.25 per cent stake for $1bn in 2021. According to him, the request was rejected because the company planned to list the refinery publicly and allow more Nigerians to own shares in the project.

“The other biggest risk is government inconsistencies in policies, and we are addressing that one because if you look at our refinery, the national oil company already owns 7.25 per cent, and they are trying to buy more. We are the ones that said no; we want to now spread it and have everybody be part of it,” Dangote said.

The NNPC had initially planned to acquire a 20 per cent stake in the refinery, but later reduced its ownership to 7.25 per cent after failing to pay the balance before the June 2024 deadline.

Dangote had explained this in 2024, saying, “The agreement was actually 20 per cent, which we had with NNPC, and they did not pay the balance of the money up until last year; then we gave them another extension up until June (2024), and they said that they would remain where they had already paid, which is 7.2 per cent. So NNPC owns only 7.2 per cent, not 20 per cent.”

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However, a stakeholder in the petroleum sector who pleaded for anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter held that the interest of the nation is well served by NNPC having a 20 per cent stake in the Dangote refinery.

“I think Nigeria is better served by NNPC being a shareholder. If NNPC could have taken 20 per cent of that refinery, Nigeria as a country would be better served,” the stakeholder said.

According to him, the fact that the NNPC failed to get the 20 per cent take before does not mean it could not get it again. He said Dangote refused NNPC’s offer because he wants to remain in control.

“You know Dangote is planning to value his company at $50bn. I think he’s going to sell 10 per cent only, so he remains in control, making a lot of money for himself. Selling only 10 per cent means he has 90 per cent. If NNPC were there with 20 per cent, then NNPC would have two directors. These two directors would have some say,” he said.

The stakeholder added that such an important asset cannot exist in a country without the government’s involvement.

“You can’t have such a big asset in the country, and then the government or the government’s agent has no say in the decisions of that company. It can’t happen. It’s wrong. I’m not saying the government must have a say in all the big companies, but in a company that is so big that it can influence whether the sun rises or falls in that country, the government must have a say.

See also  Naira could hit N1,100 to $1 in 2026, says Dangote

“The refinery is big. In any case, NNPC is also the supplier of last resort. It’s the national oil company. That has some meaning. I think that in the best interest of the country, if we all agree that Dangote is too big to fail, then it means that Nigerians as a people need to be inside the Dangote refinery to make sure it does not fail,” the operator said.

Meanwhile, a senior official of the NNPC said the NNPC is proud of its current stake in the Dangote refinery.

“The NNPC is proud and happy that we own a 7.2 per cent stake in Dangote. And whatever we own as a stake in Dangote as a national oil company is on behalf of the entire Nigeria. So, when the opportunity presents itself in the long term, yes.

“But right now, we are proud of the 7.2 per cent stake we own in the Dangote refinery. Apart from that, the quality and level of collaboration that is currently going on between NNPC and Dangote is in the interest of the entire Nigeria,” the official said, begging not to be mentioned because he was not authorised to speak on the matter.

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2027 poll spending may trigger inflation, MPC warns

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The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria and Members of the Monetary Policy Committee have warned that rising political and election-related spending ahead of the 2027 general elections could undermine the country’s disinflation gains and trigger fresh inflationary pressures.

The warnings were contained in the personal statements of MPC members released by the apex bank and obtained by The PUNCH on Thursday. The MPC, at its 304th meeting held on February 23 and 24, 2026, reduced the Monetary Policy Rate by 50 basis points from 27 per cent to 26.5 per cent, while retaining other key monetary parameters.

CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, had earlier warned in the MPC communiqué that election-related fiscal spending could threaten the inflation outlook despite the current moderation in prices.

According to the communiqué signed by Cardoso, “The outlook indicates that the current momentum of domestic disinflation will continue in the near term. This is premised on the lagged impact of previous monetary policy tightening, sustained stability in the foreign exchange market and improved food supply. However, increased fiscal releases including election-related spending could pose upside risk to the outlook.”

Also, in his personal statement, he noted “Growing fiscal pressures, from reduced government fiscal headroom and the approaching 2027 election cycle, warrant particular attention given the well-established link between pre-election fiscal expansion and inflation.”

CBN Deputy Governor for Economic Policy, Dr Muhammad Abdullahi, also highlighted election-related spending as a major risk to the inflation outlook. He said, “As political activities intensify ahead of the 2027 elections, increased fiscal injections and consumption spending could elevate demand-side inflation.”

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Abdullahi added that “the fiscal deficit has already increased significantly, and election-related spending is likely to exacerbate this trend in 2026 and early 2027.” According to him, stronger fiscal-monetary coordination would be needed to manage the liquidity impact of rising government spending.

Similarly, the CBN Deputy Governor for Operations, Emem Usoro, warned that the pre-election environment could worsen liquidity conditions and inflation expectations. Usoro stated, “Crucially, the pre-election environment increases the risk of liquidity surges, higher FX demand and a drift in inflation expectations.”

She added that the risks justified maintaining tight liquidity conditions despite the moderate rate cut. According to her, “These considerations support small, cautious adjustments and the retention of strong liquidity and prudential buffers.”

Also raising concerns was the newly appointed Deputy Governor, Lamido Yuguda, who said increased fiscal releases and election spending could disrupt the disinflation trend.

Yuguda, who was a former Director General of the Securities and Exchange Commission, noted, “The 75 per cent CRR on non-TSA public deposits remains critical, particularly given the potential for increased fiscal releases as implementation of Executive Order 9 advances.”

He further warned that, “Potential increases in fiscal spending associated with the electoral cycle could generate demand pressures and disrupt the disinflation trajectory.”

A member of the MPC, Dr Aloysius Ordu, warned that political spending tied to the elections could put pressure on foreign exchange demand and test the resilience of the economy. He said, “Domestically, rising political spending and FX demand pressures associated with the 2027 elections will test the resilience of the economy.”

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Ordu added that although reforms such as Executive Order 9 were expected to improve fiscal transparency and strengthen reserves, high debt servicing costs and political-cycle spending remained major concerns for macroeconomic management.

Another MPC member, Bandele Amoo, also expressed concern over excess liquidity from fiscal injections and early political activities ahead of the elections. He said, “My primary concern is the persistence of excess liquidity from fiscal injections, which could undermine disinflation gains and exchange rate stability.”

Amoo further noted that “fiscal spending pressures linked to the 2026 budget cycle, and early political activities ahead of the 2027 elections may heighten risks.”

Another committee member, Professor Murtala Sagagi, said the main domestic risks to inflation included fiscal slippages and election-related spending. He said, “Upside risks to the inflation outlook warrant monitoring, particularly increased fiscal releases including election-related spending and any pass-through from global oil price volatility to domestic fuel prices.”

Sagagi added that “the primary domestic risks are fiscal slippage and the possibility of election-related spending which are medium-term in nature.” He urged stronger fiscal discipline and closer coordination between monetary and fiscal authorities.

The next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled to hold on Tuesday, May 19 and Wednesday, May 20, 2026. This would be about four days after the National Bureau of Statistics is expected to release the country’s Consumer Price Index report for April 2026 on May 15.

Nigeria’s inflation rate rose to 15.38 per cent in March 2026, marking a reversal in the recent easing trend, as increases in food, transport, and accommodation costs pushed prices higher. The PUNCH observed that this was the first time the headline inflation rate had increased since March 2025.

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In its Inflation Forecast report for April 2026, the Financial Market Dealers Association projected that Nigeria’s headline inflation would rise to 16.42 per cent year-on-year in April 2026, as sustained pressure from food prices, higher energy costs and elevated global commodity prices continue to shape the domestic price environment.

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