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Electricity subsidy: FG to deduct N3.6tn from Federation Account

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The Federal Government has proposed a N3.6tn deduction from the Federation Account to fund electricity subsidies in 2026, 2027, and 2028, a move designed to distribute the financial burden across federal, state, and local governments, The PUNCH reports.

The move represents a decisive step by the Federal Government to confront the rapidly mounting electricity subsidy debt, which has severely constrained liquidity across the power sector, while also strengthening fiscal transparency by making subsidy obligations explicit and better accounted for.

The deduction proposal, detailed in the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework Fiscal Strategy Paper for 2026–2028, analysed by one of our correspondents on Tuesday, reflects a strategic shift toward distributing the financial burden of the power sector across all tiers of government, amid growing concerns over unsustainable debts and systemic inefficiencies.

According to Table 6.2 of the MTEF document, which outlines “Other FAAC Deductions” under the Federation Account Revenue – Main Pool, VAT, and Stamp Duty, the electricity subsidy for 2026 is pegged at N1.2tn.

It is projected to remain at this level through 2027 and 2028, signalling the government’s commitment to stabilising the sector while preventing hidden liabilities from ballooning into a fiscal crisis.

“The document read, “Transfer to NBET (Electricity Subsidy) is estimated at N1.2tn in the 2026 budget proposal and projected to remain at N1.2tn each in 2027 and 2028.”

The proposed approach aligns with earlier statements by the Budget Office of the Federation, which indicated plans to end the practice of the Federal Government bearing electricity subsidy costs alone.

The Budget Office DG, Tanimu Yakubu, during a training and sensitisation workshop for ministries, departments, and agencies on the 2026 post-budget preparation process using the Government Integrated Financial Management Information System Budget Preparation Sub-System, said President Bola Tinubu had directed that electricity subsidy costs be made explicit, tracked, and fairly shared across tiers of government.

“If we want a stable power sector, we must pay for the choices we make,” he said. “When tariffs are held below cost, a gap is created. That gap is a subsidy. And a subsidy is a bill.”

He added that from 2026, the Federal Government would no longer treat electricity subsidies as an open-ended obligation borne solely by the centre, especially where policy decisions and political benefits are shared.

“In 2026, we will stop pretending that this bill can be left to the Federal Government alone, especially where the policy choice or the political benefit is shared across tiers of government,” Yakubu said.

According to him, the President has instructed that the existing electricity sector legal framework be invoked to ensure that subsidy sharing is practical, transparent, and enforceable.

“This means subsidy costs must be explicit, tracked, and funded, so they do not return as arrears, liquidity crises, or hidden liabilities in the market,” he said. “If any tier of government chooses affordability interventions, the funding responsibilities must be clear, agreed, and enforceable,” he stated.

Currently, the Federal Government finances electricity subsidies through direct budgetary allocations, primarily channelled via the Federal Ministry of Finance to the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Plc.

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NBET acts as an intermediary, purchasing electricity from generation companies (GenCos) and selling it to distribution companies (DisCos) at regulated tariffs, often lower than the actual cost of production.

The gap between the regulated tariff and the cost of electricity generation is effectively covered by government subsidies, which are meant to shield consumers from the full cost of electricity while maintaining stability in the power market.

However, this subsidy framework has placed a growing strain on federal finances, and accumulating unpaid obligations has caused a drastic increase in sector debt.

By the end of 2025, total outstanding sector debt, including unpaid obligations to generation and other power companies, is projected to rise to about N6.5tn, up from around N4tn earlier in the year, as a result of unfunded subsidy shortfalls and low payments to power producers.

This has prompted the proposed 2026 measure to deduct N1.2tn directly from the Federation Account for electricity subsidies, which aims to make payments explicit, transparent, and shared among federal, state, and local governments, a strategy intended to address both fiscal sustainability and operational efficiency in NESI.

By deducting funds directly from the Federation Account, the central revenue pool managed by the Federation Account Allocation Committee before revenue distribution, the government aims to encourage states and local governments to prioritise efficiency and provide targeted support for vulnerable households.

Providing further insight into the Federal Government’s proposed electricity subsidy funding framework, energy policy expert Habu Sadeik explained that the N1.2tn earmarked in the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper will be deducted directly from the Federation Account Allocation Committee pool before revenues are shared among the three tiers of government.

According to Sadeik, the MTEF document clearly captures the N1.2tn electricity subsidy as a first-line deduction from gross FAAC revenue, meaning the amount will be removed before distributable revenue is calculated for the Federal Government, states, and Local Governments.

He explained that the MTEF-FSP, which is prepared every three years, sets the strategic direction for government budgeting and spending across the federation, including how revenues are shared and which obligations are treated as priority deductions.

“What the government has done is to provide for a deduction at source from the gross FAAC revenue to the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Plc (NBET) amounting to N1.2tn,” Sadeik said.

He noted that the approach is similar to the funding structure adopted for the Presidential Metering Initiative, under which about N800bn has been carved out from FAAC over time to fund nationwide metering, thereby reducing estimated billing and commercial losses in the power sector.

Under the new electricity subsidy framework, Sadeik explained, any deduction made from the gross FAAC pool effectively reduces what states and local governments eventually receive.

“For example, if total FAAC revenue in a particular month is N1tn and N200bn is deducted upfront, it means every state and local government has indirectly contributed to that N200bn,” he said.

He clarified that the proposed N1.2tn is not an ad-hoc payment but a planned transfer to NBET beginning in 2026, to be executed before revenue is distributed to sub-national governments.

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“This money is planned to be paid to NBET ahead of distribution. It is no longer something the Federal Government will try to settle later through its own budget,” Sadeik explained.

Historically, electricity subsidies have been funded solely through federal budgetary allocations, placing the full burden on the Federal Government. However, Sadeik noted that the new arrangement represents a fundamental shift in responsibility.

“The key difference is the burden,” he said. “Before now, the burden of electricity subsidy was on the Federal Government alone. Under this new framework, the burden is shared by the entire federation, the Federal Government, states, and Local Governments.”

He added that previous budgetary provisions for electricity subsidies were grossly inadequate when compared with the scale of liabilities in the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry.

“In 2024, only about N450bn was provided in the budget. In 2025, it increased to N900bn, but these amounts were still far below the level of accumulated subsidy obligations,” he said.

The planned FAAC deduction, according to Sadeik, is intended to close this funding gap by making subsidy payments explicit, predictable, and sustainably funded, while ending the long-standing practice of masking electricity subsidies within federal fiscal operations.

Commenting on the proposal, the Executive Director and Convener of PowerUp Nigeria, Adetayo Adegbemle, applauded the initiative, describing it as consistent with the principles of federalism.

Adegbemle said the arrangement reflects a system in which all federating units actively participate in governance, noting that the Federal Government, states, and local governments would collectively contribute to the cost of electricity subsidies.

“This is in the spirit of federalism, where all federating units are involved in government. Under this arrangement, the Federal Government, the states, and the local governments will all contribute to the payment of electricity subsidy,” he said.

While noting that the full implementation details were still unclear, Adegbemle described the proposal as a positive development that allows all tiers of government to share responsibility for the power sector.

“I don’t know if the government has already worked out all the details, but this is a good development because all levels of government can come in and make their own contributions,” he added.

He explained that the policy would apply mainly to states that have yet to establish their own electricity markets under the amended Electricity Act. “As earlier mentioned, this will involve all states that have not created their state electricity markets. States that have already set up functional local electricity markets will be exempted,” Adegbemle said.

Although he reiterated his long-standing position that electricity subsidies should ideally be phased out completely, Adegbemle noted that the proposed framework would significantly ease the financial burden on the Federal Government while improving accountability across the sector.

“Even though some of us have advocated for the complete removal of the electricity subsidy, this move will drastically reduce the burden on the Federal Government and also bring more accountability,” he said.

According to him, shared responsibility would compel each tier of government to properly audit its electricity customer base and closely monitor connections to the national grid, thereby reducing inefficiencies and revenue leakages in the power sector.

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“This will force every level of government to take responsibility for auditing their customer base and their connections to the national grid,” he added.

Ministry backs moves

When contacted, the Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, speaking through his media aide, Bolaji Tunji, said the ministry supports the proposed electricity subsidy funding framework, describing it as a step in the right direction for the power sector.

He explained that while the announcement was made by the Director-General of the Budget Office, the Ministry of Power aligns with the initiative and agrees with its underlying objectives.

“This announcement was made by the Director-General of the Budget Office, and his office should be contacted for further clarification on the implementation strategy. However, we agree with him on this,” Tunji said.

The implications of the proposed N1.2tn FAAC deduction for electricity subsidies are significant for state and local governments.

Under the current FAAC revenue-sharing formula, states are entitled to 26.72 per cent of the Main Pool, while local governments receive 20.60 per cent. With projected FAAC revenue for 2026 at about N41.06tn, this would translate to roughly N10.97tn for states and N8.45tn for Local Governments.

However, because the electricity subsidy is to be deducted upfront from the gross FAAC revenue, the amount available for distribution to subnational governments will effectively be reduced.

The deduction means governors may need to reassess allocations for critical sectors such as infrastructure, education, and healthcare to accommodate their share of the subsidy payment.

State energy commissioners react

Meanwhile, the Forum of State Commissioners of Power and Energy in Nigeria has said that it believes that President Bola Tinubu would not do anything against the interests of the masses.

FOCPEN Chairman, Prince Eka Williams, who also serves as the Commissioner for Power and Renewable Energy in Cross River State, told The PUNCH that the forum would make known its positions on the matter later after thorough understanding.

“If that’s what the Federal Government has said, we have to look at it and digest it very well. We have to look at the pros and cons. For now, we have not seen a copy of what the president said.

“But I’m sure what the government would do would be in the interest of Nigerians. I know he’s a  President who cares about the masses. We have not seen him sign into law an anti-people bill,” Williams said.

He said FOCPEN would listen to the analysis of experts before making its decision known to the public.

“Let experts look at the policy very well, not just relying on what people have interpreted it to be. Let experts look at it, and in no distant time, we will make a public statement,” he submitted.

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Marketers push N800/litre petrol, seek import licences

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Independent petroleum marketers on Monday pushed for the restoration of importation rights and projected that the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit, popularly called petrol, could fall below N800 per litre as the Federal Government intensified efforts to force down the cost of petrol.

The development came as the Federal Government met with major operators in the downstream petroleum sector, including representatives of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, over what it described as the disconnect between falling global crude oil prices and the relatively high pump prices of petrol in the domestic market.

The stakeholders’ meeting on cost-reflective pricing of PMS, held at the headquarters of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority in Abuja, brought together the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, the Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria, the Depot and Petroleum Products Retailers Association of Nigeria, the Depot and Petroleum Products Marketers Association of Nigeria, the Nigerian Association of Road Transport Owners, and other major operators in the sector.

Also in attendance were chief executives and representatives of TotalEnergies, Eterna Plc, Matrix Energy Group, officials of the NMDPRA, and delegates from the Dangote refinery.

The PUNCH reports that petrol prices have remained a major source of hardship for households and businesses in Nigeria, with pump prices surging following the spike in global crude oil prices triggered by tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and the United States.

Although crude prices have moderated after diplomatic efforts eased the tensions, the reduction has yet to be fully reflected in domestic petrol prices, prompting the Federal Government to convene a stakeholders’ meeting aimed at driving a fair reduction in pump prices.

The National President of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Abubakar Maigandi, urged the government to permit independent marketers to import petroleum products directly, saying greater competition would ultimately reduce prices.

Maigandi also called for support for local refineries, particularly the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, while stressing the need to allow marketers to import products whenever necessary.

“Our major is that if products are to be distributed, let IPMAN buy products directly from the Dangote refinery and then, if we request importation, let IPMAN import by themselves. What we are trying to encourage is our local refinery. Let the government allow the local refinery to function properly and assist those who intend to refine products too,” he said.

The IPMAN president assured Nigerians that independent marketers were prepared to slash petrol prices significantly and projected that pump prices could fall below N800 per litre under the right market conditions.

“The price of the product is coming down bit by bit. Even when the price was increased, it was not increased at the same time. Likewise, now, as the price is coming down, we too are bringing the price down. If you check prices all over the country, you will see that independent petroleum marketers are reducing their prices gradually. Presently, we have reduced by N125 per litre nationwide,” he stated.

Miagandi added, “At any time when there is a reduction in price, we are ready to reduce the price to even below N800 per litre, not even N900. It depends on the way we buy the product from the private depot owners and the Dangote refinery.

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“I thank God that the Dangote refinery has accepted independent petroleum marketers to start purchasing products directly. It is a plus, and very soon the populace will see the change in terms of price.”

The renewed push for importation comes amid an intense pricing battle in the downstream sector following the commencement of large-scale production at the Dangote refinery and the deregulation of the petrol market.

Speaking to journalists after a closed-door session with the stakeholders, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, said the government remained concerned that current petrol prices were not reflective of prevailing crude oil prices in the international market.

According to him, the government had engaged marketers in frank discussions aimed at ensuring that the reduction in global crude prices translates into lower pump prices for Nigerians.

Lokpobiri said, “The engagements are ongoing. We had very fruitful and frank discussions with the marketers and the leaders of the downstream sector of the petroleum industry with a view to driving down the price of PMS.

“My own opinion is that the petrol prices are not cost-reflective; they are not reflective of the cost of crude oil. But the marketers are also saying that crude oil prices are still high.

“In fact, somebody told us right there that the crude oil price for a month is still over $90 per barrel. But we are saying that when Brent crude was over $118 per barrel, the price was rapidly going up. Now that the price has come down drastically, why has petrol not come down correspondingly? That is a worry.”

The minister said the government had communicated the concerns of consumers to operators and directed them to return with practical measures that would lead to lower petrol prices.

“We have said that these are the issues of concern to the government. They have also said they will go back and think about what they can put together with a view to addressing the issue of the high cost of PMS that is not reflective of the price of crude in the market.

“We told them the concern of the Nigerian consumer, and they have also said they will go back and think of what concrete steps can be taken with a view to ensuring that the price drops,” he stated.

On when Nigerians should expect a reduction in petrol prices, Lokpobiri said discussions were still ongoing and declined to give a deadline. “As we called you today, we will call you as soon as possible. But the important thing is that discussions are ongoing,” he added.

Before the closed-door meeting, Lokpobiri warned petroleum marketers against using profits from previously acquired expensive fuel inventories as justification for maintaining high petrol prices, insisting that the benefits of lower replacement costs must be passed on to consumers.

The government said the continued disconnect between falling international crude oil prices and domestic petrol prices had become a source of concern, warning petroleum marketers against sustaining high pump prices of Premium Motor Spirit despite declining global crude prices and insisting that Nigerians should enjoy the benefits of lower replacement costs in a deregulated market.

He insisted that temporary gains realised from inventories purchased when crude oil prices were higher should not become the basis for sustaining elevated pump prices after global oil prices had declined.

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“I am aware that PMS pricing is influenced by several factors beyond crude oil prices, but it is equally important to distinguish between genuine replacement cost and windfall gains arising from inventory management.

“Temporary gains realised from inventories acquired at higher prices should not become the basis for sustaining elevated pump prices after replacement costs have declined. As inventories are replenished at lower costs, the benefits of those lower costs should be transmitted to consumers in a timely and transparent manner. That is the essence of a competitive and efficiently functioning market,” he stated.

According to the minister, as marketers replenish their stocks at lower costs, reductions in procurement expenses should be reflected promptly in ex-depot and retail petrol prices in line with the principles of a competitive and efficient deregulated market.

The minister added that the Federal Government remained committed to protecting consumers in the post-subsidy era, stressing that deregulation was not designed to create opportunities for excessive pricing or market distortions but to deepen competition, improve efficiency, and deliver value to Nigerians.

He further warned that sustaining high energy costs beyond what prevailing market conditions justify could worsen inflationary pressures and undermine the gains recorded in moderating the country’s inflation rate.

The minister urged petroleum marketers and operators to immediately transmit the benefits of falling global crude oil prices to Nigerian consumers, warning that deregulation should not be exploited to sustain high petrol prices and generate windfall gains.

His comments come amid growing public concerns over the slow pace of reductions in petrol prices despite the sharp moderation in crude oil prices in recent months.

According to the minister, international crude prices traded between $61 and $65 per barrel in January before surging above $118 per barrel in April following heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, prices have since declined to around $71 per barrel after the easing of the tensions.

He noted that while the earlier rise in crude prices exerted upward pressure on petrol prices, the subsequent decline had not been reflected proportionately in domestic pump prices.

“Ordinarily, such movements in crude oil prices should be reflected in the pricing of refined petroleum products. While the initial increase in crude prices understandably exerted upward pressure on PMS prices, the subsequent moderation in crude oil prices has not translated into a commensurate reduction in pump prices across the domestic market.

“This disconnect has understandably raised concerns. PMS peaked at about N1,596 per litre in May and currently sells at around N1,296 per litre. While there has been some reduction, the adjustment has not been commensurate with the decline in underlying market conditions,” the minister said.

He also called for the speedy operationalisation of the National Strategic Stock, describing it as a critical instrument for safeguarding national energy security and moderating future price shocks.

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“The National Strategic Stock will strengthen national energy security, reduce exposure to supply disruptions, and moderate price volatility. There is urgency in ensuring that this mechanism becomes fully operational,” he said.

Nigeria’s petrol market has witnessed sharp fluctuations in prices over the past year, with pump prices peaking at over N1,500 per litre in some parts of the country following spikes in global crude oil prices and exchange rate volatility.

However, the recent decline in international oil prices and improved domestic refining capacity have increased pressure on marketers to cut prices, with many consumers expecting further reductions in the coming weeks.

The outcome of the government’s engagement with operators could determine the next phase of competition in the downstream sector and whether Nigerians will eventually see petrol prices fall to the N800 per litre level projected by marketers.

Earlier in his opening remarks, the Authority Chief Executive of the NMDPRA, Rabiu Umar, said the meeting was convened at the directive of the minister to address the growing concerns surrounding petrol pricing and ensure that Nigerians benefit from improvements in global market conditions.

Umar recalled that a similar engagement with operators in the domestic gas sector had recently resulted in a noticeable reduction in liquefied petroleum gas prices, expressing optimism that the same collaborative approach could deliver results in the petrol market.

“Just two weeks ago, many of us gathered in a similar forum to discuss the domestic gas sector. The candid dialogue and the actionable wins we secured during that session are already bearing fruit. Notably, we have seen LPG prices coming down significantly across the market, and we look forward to seeing even more reduction within the next two weeks.

“It is exactly this kind of tangible success that inspired today’s gathering. When regulators and industry operators sit at the same table, we do not just debate challenges; we engineer solutions,” he said.

The NMDPRA boss acknowledged that global crude prices had moderated significantly in recent weeks but lamented that the domestic retail market had yet to adjust accordingly.

“As a responsible regulatory authority, it is our duty to step in alongside you, our valued partners, to interrogate the market forces, understand the operational bottlenecks, and directly address this disconnect between falling replacement costs and sustained retail prices.

“Deregulation is not a licence for market distortion or unfair consumer pricing. It is intended to drive efficiency, maximise value, and protect the public interest. Sustainable profitability for marketers and consumer welfare are not mutually exclusive. We need to build a transparent ecosystem where the benefits of market improvements are passed down to the Nigerian consumer in a timely and fair manner,” Umar added.

He stressed that the objective of the meeting was not to dictate prices but to collaborate with industry stakeholders on practical solutions that would keep businesses viable while protecting consumers.

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UBA names Nnorom chairman as Elumelu exits board

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United Bank for Africa Plc has announced that its Group Chairman, Tony Elumelu, will retire from the Board of Directors of UBA on August 21, 2026.

The decision follows the completion of the 12-year tenure limit prescribed for non-executive directors of banks by the Central Bank of Nigeria.

This was contained in a statement issued by the bank and sent to The PUNCH on Monday. The statement, signed by the Group Head of Marketing and Corporate Communications for United Bank for Africa Plc, Alero Ladipo, noted that the financial institution is entering a new phase of strategic growth.

“At its meeting held on July 6, 2026, the board accepted Mr Elumelu’s retirement and elected Mr Emmanuel Nnorom, a Non-Executive Director of the bank, as his successor, with effect from August 21, 2026,” the statement read in part.

The board appreciated Elumelu for his visionary leadership and exceptional contribution to the strategic vision and institutional strength of the UBA Group.

Elumelu’s tenure has been described as a defining chapter in the group’s history. Under his stewardship, UBA was transformed into a pan-African institution operating in 20 African countries and four global financial centres, serving over 50 million customers.

Similarly, Nnorom is a chartered accountant with over 40 years’ experience in banking, finance, and audit. He brings to the role extensive leadership experience and deep institutional knowledge of the financial institution.

Commenting on his retirement, Elumelu said, “Serving United Bank for Africa has been one of the great privileges of my career. UBA has established a unique competitive position across Africa and globally, and I leave the board with great confidence in UBA’s future. Emmanuel Nnorom is a leader of integrity, experience, and sound judgement, and I am confident that the bank will continue to thrive under his leadership.”

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Also speaking on his appointment, Nnorom said, “I am honoured by the trust the board has placed in me and deeply conscious of the legacy I inherit. I look forward to working with my colleagues on the board, management, and our staff across all our markets to sustain UBA’s momentum and continue delivering long-term value to our shareholders, customers, and stakeholders.”

United Bank for Africa Plc, widely recognised as Africa’s global bank, operates across 20 African countries and has an active footprint in the United Kingdom, the United States of America, France, and the United Arab Emirates. UBA provides retail, commercial, and institutional banking services while leading financial inclusion through cutting-edge technology.

The financial group stands as one of the largest employers in the financial sector on the African continent, boasting 25,000 employees group-wide. Established in 1949, the UBA Group has evolved significantly over the last 75 years.

Meanwhile, at the close of trading on Monday, the share price of the financial giant gained N1.40, representing a 3.41 per cent increase to close at N42.40 from N41.00 at the start of trading for the day. Investors traded 13.768 million shares valued at N577.82m in 1,566 deals.

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Dangote beats US, ships N757bn jet fuel to Europe – Report reveals

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Dangote Petroleum Refinery exported about 466,000 metric tonnes of jet fuel to Europe in June, valued at an estimated N757bn, overtaking shipments from the United States and others.

This is as Nigerian jet fuel exports to the continent reached their highest level since the country became a net exporter of aviation fuel in 2024.

According to a market report by S&P Global Commodity Insights, the refinery’s exports came as the European jet fuel market turned increasingly bearish following a sharp decline in prices from the highs recorded during the Middle East conflict.

The report stated that flows of jet fuel from Nigeria to Europe rose from 232,000 metric tonnes in May to 466,000 metric tonnes in June, the highest volume exported from the country to Europe since Nigeria became a net exporter of jet fuel in 2024, when the Dangote Refinery commenced aviation fuel production.

The June export volume is equivalent to about 582.5 million litres of jet fuel. At an estimated domestic value of N1,300 per litre, the shipment is worth about N757.25bn.

On the other hand, aviation fuel exports from the United States fell sharply in the past months. The report showed that jet fuel exports from the United States to Europe declined steadily over the same period, falling from a record 818,000 metric tonnes in April to 560,000 metric tonnes in May and further to 399,000 metric tonnes in June, leaving Nigeria as a bigger supplier to Europe during the month.

Commenting on the market, a trader attributed the oversupply partly to increased shipments from Dangote and the United States. “Jet is oversupplied because of high local refinery production; refineries pushed back maintenance to make the most of the high prices.

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“The US and Dangote also shipped large volumes. Now there are some flows resuming through the Suez, too, from the UAE, but let’s see how it goes,” the trader was quoted as saying.

The report noted that the European jet fuel forward curve had weakened significantly after reaching record highs during the Middle East war, as traders now anticipate an oversupplied summer market amid weaker-than-expected aviation demand.

According to Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, the Northwest Europe jet CIF cargo financial assessment for July dropped to $981.75 per metric tonne on June 30, down sharply from the all-time high of $1,694.25 per metric tonne recorded on March 30.

Similarly, the August contract declined from $1,507.50 per metric tonne on March 30 to $968.25 per metric tonne by June 30.

The report added that Europe could receive even more jet fuel supplies in the coming months as the East-West arbitrage remains attractive, encouraging exporters in the Middle East and India to ship cargoes westward.

While flows from the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait were absent in June, shipments from Saudi Arabia increased to about 106,000 metric tonnes, up from 7,000 metric tonnes in May, while exports from India rose from 129,000 metric tonnes to 197,000 metric tonnes over the same period.

Despite the current oversupply, two European jet fuel traders reportedly told Platts that market conditions would depend largely on developments in the Strait of Hormuz and the pace at which Middle Eastern refineries recover from disruptions caused by the recent conflict.

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They also noted that stronger summer travel demand and refiners’ growing preference to maximise diesel production over jet fuel could gradually help rebalance the aviation fuel market.

Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority showed that the Dangote refinery exported an estimated 1.66 billion litres of refined petroleum products in April 2026.

This was during the mounting tensions in the Middle East that caused disruption to global fuel supply routes.

An analysis of the NMDPRA’s April 2026 fact sheet showed that the country exported about 513 million litres of premium motor spirit, popularly called ‘petrol’; 534 million litres of automotive gas oil, also known as diesel; and 615 million litres of aviation fuel within the month in April.

The Dangote refinery is the only major functional refinery in Nigeria that currently produces enough refined petroleum products for both local consumption and export.

Nigeria has become a net petrol exporter for the first time in decades due to rising output from the Dangote refinery. The refinery had earlier exported about 434 million litres of petrol in March after domestic production exceeded local consumption levels.

The latest figures underscore Nigeria’s gradual transition from a major importer of refined petroleum products to an export hub within Africa. It was observed that jet fuel exports may rise further with the instability caused by the Middle East crisis, which disrupted traditional supply chains serving Europe and other regions.

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