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Rising fuel prices: NNPC may supply foreign crude to Dangote refinery

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The Federal Government, through the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, has begun moves to secure crude oil supply for the Dangote Petroleum Refinery through third-party international traders, in a bid to sustain domestic refining operations, The PUNCH has learnt.

Officials, however, warned that the intervention may not immediately translate into lower petrol prices for consumers. Nigerians currently grapple with high fuel prices, following the recent hikes in the cost of the commodities by the $20bn Lekki-based refinery.

Oil dealers and industry players confirmed to one of our correspondents that the refinery temporarily suspended the loading of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol), a development that heightened speculation that another fuel price increase could be imminent.

This would mean the third surge in petrol prices within a week, following adjustments that pushed gantry prices from N774 to N995 per litre. As a result, retail pump prices in several states now exceed N1,000 per litre, as some stations now dispense petrol at about N1,200/litre, intensifying economic pressures on Nigerians.

This comes as recent market data illustrates the shift in crude sourcing patterns. Kpler analytics show that crude imports by Nigeria from the United States surged to 41.13 million barrels in 2025, up 161 per cent from 15.79 million barrels in 2024.

Amid the fuel price hike in Nigeria, motorists and industry observers are bracing for the impact on transport fares and the cost of goods. The refinery’s temporary halt in PMS loading, the second within a week, reflects logistical challenges in sustaining domestic supply, particularly given global crude market volatility. Analysts note that stabilising prices depends heavily on reliable crude allocation to domestic refineries.

One critical factor is the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, especially the Iran-US conflict, which has disrupted oil supply chains and pushed Brent crude prices above $92 per barrel. Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy transit corridor, have compounded the global price surge. The disruption has made it costly and difficult for refiners relying solely on local crude.

Multiple industry sources and officials from both NNPC and Dangote refinery confirmed that the national oil company is leveraging its global crude trading network to source third-party supply for the Dangote refinery at competitive international market rates.

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“Leveraging our global crude trading network, we are sourcing third-party crude for the refinery at prices that are competitive with prevailing international market rates,” a senior official at NNPC, who spoke in confidence due to the lack of authorisation to speak on the matter, told The PUNCH on Sunday.

The official further explained, “As the national oil company entrusted with safeguarding Nigeria’s energy security, NNPC Limited remains fully committed to supporting domestic refining, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. Within the framework of our existing agreements, we continue to facilitate crude supply to DRP, in the face of temporary availability constraints.”

The Dangote refinery has, however, cautioned that sourcing crude internationally may not immediately reduce pump prices. A refinery source explained: “The current Middle East crisis is affecting overall global energy prices, crude oil, LNG and other fuels, and that has implications for refined product pricing globally.”

The refinery also highlighted constraints in domestic supply. It receives just five cargoes a month from NNPC, instead of the 13 cargoes required under the naira-for-crude policy, forcing reliance on imported crude purchased at international market rates.

“Furthermore, while we receive about five cargoes a month from NNPC, which we pay for in naira, these cargoes are priced at international market prices plus premium and fall short of the 13 cargoes which we require to support sales into Nigeria,” the refinery stated.

Industry players speak

Industry stakeholders note that increased domestic refining output could help moderate petrol prices. Eche Idoko, National Publicity Secretary of the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria, said the naira-for-crude policy could influence pricing if fully implemented, but warned that imported crude costs and global tensions remain a limiting factor.

“Dangote needs 14 cargoes of crude from the government under the naira-for-crude policy, for the refinery to meet its demands. If this is done, it will impact price locally, but as long as the refinery sources the majority of its feedstock from the United States and must bypass the Strait of Hormuz, they will transfer the cost to Nigerian customers,” he said.

Idoko urged expansion of the policy to other domestic refineries to promote competition and further stabilise prices. He added that operational costs linked to Dangote’s location in a free trade zone also affect pricing:

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“This type of supply is treated as if it were coming from an external company because the refinery is located in a free trade zone, meaning many of the charges that apply to imports are still applicable. The additional cost of about $5 to $7 per barrel is substantial and should ideally be removed to help reduce the overall price consumers pay.”

Energy analysts also highlight the impact of limited import licences on market competition. Jeremiah Olatide, CEO of Petroleumprice.ng, said nearly 90 per cent of marketers seeking petrol import permits this year have been denied, giving the Dangote refinery dominant market influence.

“Importers haven’t really been given import licences. About 90 per cent of those who applied for PMS import permits were not issued approvals, largely to promote and encourage local refineries, particularly the Dangote refinery,” he noted.

Olatide stressed that a balance between local refining and controlled imports would strengthen energy security and stabilise prices. “Imports should not exceed about 20 to 25 per cent of total supply, while the rest is refined locally. That balance would strengthen the economy and improve energy security.”

Despite supply pressures, the presence of the Dangote refinery has cushioned Nigeria from more severe price spikes. “There are crises everywhere in the global energy market, and thankfully, we now have the Dangote refinery. If the refinery was not operating, petrol prices in Nigeria could easily have reached N1,500 per litre,” Olatide added.

Imports from US

Recent market data illustrates the shift in crude sourcing patterns. Kpler analytics show that US crude exports to Nigeria surged to 41.13 million barrels in 2025, up 161 per cent from 15.79 million barrels in 2024. This reflects Nigeria’s growing dependence on imported crude to meet refinery feedstock needs.

The surge in crude imports from the US coincides with Dangote’s increasing reliance on foreign crude. In July 2025, the refinery imported 590,000 barrels per day, with 60 per cent coming from US light sweet crude and 40 per cent from Nigerian grades, marking the first time US supply overtook domestic crude for Dangote.

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Analysts note that while this enhances compatibility with complex refining processes, it underscores the paradox of Africa’s largest oil producer relying on foreign crude despite rising local output.

Domestic crude allocations also remain insufficient. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission confirmed that between January and August 2025, local refiners received 67.66 million barrels, falling far short of the 123.48 million barrels requested. The shortfall reflects ongoing challenges in bridging the gap between rising production levels and refinery demand.

Meanwhile, the Dangote refinery has continued to manage operational realities in a deregulated environment. It absorbs part of the cost escalation to cushion consumers while ensuring an uninterrupted supply. “Selling below cost would undermine our ability to procure crude, sustain production, and guarantee supply,” a refinery official said.

The combined pressures of geopolitical tensions, local supply gaps, and market regulation have created a perfect storm for rising fuel prices. With petrol now retailing between N1,030 and N1,100 per litre in major cities, commercial drivers have already adjusted fares, and consumers are bracing for higher costs across the economy.

The rising fuel prices come as three key developments compound market pressure: the looming third petrol price hike, Dangote’s temporary suspension of fuel sales, and Nigeria’s tripling of US crude imports in one year. These factors illustrate the interplay between domestic refining capacity, international supply constraints, and government policies, shaping the country’s energy market in real time.

Meanwhile, it was gathered that the Dangote refinery has approved a new list of petroleum marketers and distribution partners to ensure continued lifting of PMS, expanding the pool from 13 to over 30 companies nationwide.

This includes NIPCO Plc, MRS Oil Nigeria Plc, TotalEnergies Marketing Nigeria Plc, Conoil Plc, and others, highlighting efforts to broaden access while navigating challenging supply and pricing conditions.

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Court freezes N448m assets in Keystone Bank debt recovery suit

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The Federal High Court in Lagos has ordered the freezing of funds and assets valued at N448,263,172.41 in a debt recovery suit instituted by Keystone Bank Limited against five defendants.

The order was made on March 26, 2026, by Justice Chukwujekwu Aneke following an ex parte application moved by Keystone Bank’s counsel Mofesomo Tayo-Oyetibo (SAN), against Relic Resources, Olufunmilayo Emmanuella Alabi, Uwadiale Donald Agenmonmen, The Magnificent Multi Services Limited, and Raedial Farms Limited.

In his ruling, Justice Aneke granted a Mareva injunction restraining the defendants, whether by themselves, their agents, privies, or assigns, from withdrawing, transferring, dissipating, or otherwise dealing with funds, shares, dividends, and other financial instruments standing to their credit in any bank or financial institution in Nigeria, up to the sum in dispute.

The court further directed all banks and financial institutions within the jurisdiction to forthwith preserve any funds belonging to the defendants upon being served with the order.

The said institutions were also ordered to depose to affidavits within seven days of service, disclosing the balances in all accounts maintained by the defendants, together with the relevant statements of account.

In addition, the court granted a preservative order restraining the defendants from disposing of, alienating, or otherwise encumbering any movable or immovable property, including any future or contingent interests, up to the value of the alleged indebtedness.

The court also granted leave for substituted service of the originating and other court processes on the second and third defendants by courier delivery to their last known addresses.

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The matter was adjourned to April 9, 2026, for mention.

According to the originating processes before the court, the suit arises from a N500 million overdraft facility granted by the claimant to the first defendant on March 28, 2023, for a tenure of 365 days at an interest rate of 32 per cent per annum.

The claimant averred that the facility, initially secured by a $200,000 cash collateral and subsequently by a mortgaged property located at Itunu City, Epe, Lagos, expired on March 27, 2024, leaving an outstanding indebtedness of N448,263,172.41 as at October 31, 2024.

In the affidavit in support of the application, the claimant alleged that the facility was diverted for personal use by the third defendant and channelled through the fourth and fifth defendant companies.

It further contended that the first defendant is no longer a going concern and has failed, refused, and neglected to liquidate the outstanding indebtedness despite several demands made between May and October 2025.

The claimant also expressed apprehension that the defendants may dissipate or conceal their assets, thereby rendering nugatory any judgment that may be obtained in the suit, and consequently urged the court to grant the reliefs sought in the interest of justice.

After considering the application and submissions of learned silk, Justice Aneke granted all the reliefs sought and adjourned the matter to April 9, 2026, for further proceedings.

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Sanwo-Olu unveils Lagos 2026 economic blueprint, vows inclusive growth

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The Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, on Tuesday unveiled the 2026 edition of the Lagos Economic Development Update, reaffirming his administration’s commitment to driving inclusive growth and ensuring that economic progress translates into tangible benefits for all residents of the state.

The unveiling of this year’s outlook, held in Ikeja, provides an in-depth analysis of the state’s economic trajectory, capturing global, national, and local developments shaping Lagos’ growth outlook.

Represented by his deputy, Obafemi Hamzat, the governor described the report as more than a policy document, noting that it serves as a strategic compass for guiding economic direction and strengthening decision-making.

He added that despite global economic headwinds — including post-pandemic recovery challenges, inflationary pressures, and exchange rate fluctuations — the state has remained resilient through deliberate policies, fiscal discipline, and sustained investment in critical infrastructure.

“It is with a deep sense of responsibility and optimism that I join you today to officially launch the third edition of the Lagos Economic Development Update — LEDU 2026.

“This platform has evolved beyond a mere policy document; it has become a compass guiding our economic direction, shaping decisions, and reinforcing our commitment to building a resilient, inclusive, and prosperous Lagos,” he said.

He noted that while the global economic environment has remained unpredictable, Lagos has stayed on course through “clarity, discipline, and foresight,” anchored on the T.H.E.M.E.S+ Agenda.

According to him, the state had strengthened its fiscal framework, improved revenue generation, and invested in infrastructure critical to long-term growth.

Sanwo-Olu further highlighted progress recorded since the inception of LEDU, including the expansion of the state’s economic base driven by innovation, entrepreneurship, and digitalisation; improved efficiency in revenue systems; and sustained infrastructure development spanning roads, ports, energy, and urban planning.

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He added that continued investment in human capital remains central, as “people are the true engine of growth.”

Speaking on the theme of this year’s report, “Consolidating Resilience, Advancing Competitiveness, Delivering Shared Prosperity,” the governor said it reflects Lagos’ current economic priorities.

He explained that consolidating resilience involves strengthening institutions and fiscal discipline, while advancing competitiveness requires boosting productivity, innovation, and investment.

Delivering shared prosperity, he added, means ensuring growth translates into jobs, expanded opportunities, and improved livelihoods for residents.

Looking ahead, he reaffirmed the administration’s commitment to economic diversification, private sector-led growth, data-driven governance, sustainable urban development, and social inclusion.

He also stressed the importance of partnerships with the private sector, development institutions, civil society, and the international community in achieving the state’s development goals.

“As we launch this edition of LEDU, I urge all stakeholders to engage actively, strengthen collaboration, and align with our shared vision.

“We have built resilience; now we must translate it into sustained competitiveness and ensure that growth delivers tangible prosperity for every Lagosian,” he said.

Also speaking, the state Commissioner for Economic Planning and Budget, Ope George, said Lagos has demonstrated remarkable resilience in navigating both global and domestic economic challenges.

“Lagos is not just responding to economic shocks — we are building systems that make us stronger because of them,” he said, noting that deliberate policies, disciplined fiscal management, and strategic investments have reinforced the state’s position as a leading subnational economy in Africa.

He added that the state would continue to prioritise economic diversification, private sector growth, sustainable urban development, and social inclusion, stressing that growth must be measured not only by numbers but also by its impact on people’s lives.

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In his goodwill message, Chief Consultant at B. Adedipe Associates Limited, Biodun Adedipe, described the LEDU initiative as a credible framework for tracking economic performance and refining development strategies.

He noted that Lagos remains central to Nigeria’s economy, adding that its continued growth signals broader national progress.

“If Lagos works, a significant share of Nigeria’s commerce works,” he said, expressing optimism about the state’s economic future.

Meanwhile, the Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group, Tayo Adeloju, urged the state government to prioritise affordable housing as a critical driver of shared prosperity.

He noted that high housing costs could limit upward mobility for low-income earners, stressing that making housing more accessible would enhance living standards and support inclusive growth.

Adeloju added that sustained fiscal discipline, improved service delivery, and a broader productive base would further strengthen Lagos’ position among Africa’s leading megacity economies.

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Airlines in pricing limbo amid 180% Jet A1 price surge

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Airfares have remained stagnant in Nigeria despite the rising cost of aviation fuel by 184 per cent in the last two months, occasioned by the ongoing crisis in the Middle East.

However, sources in different airlines who did not want their names in print, considering the sensitivity of the matter, told The PUNCH on Tuesday that the “pressure of competition” among local carriers kept the airfares low.

Aviation fuel, which was sold at N900 per litre in January, increased to N1,121 per litre as of 26 February 2026 and now sells for N2,557 per litre.

Aviation fuel is the highest consuming commodity of airlines’ finances, taking about 40 per cent of airlines’ resources. This is closely followed by aircraft maintenance.

Despite the spike in fuel prices and the financial burden on airlines, competition has been keeping the airlines in check against upping their ticket prices. Between January and March 30, the product has increased by 184 per cent; yet, airfares still sell for between N106,286 and N147,000 across major routes in the domestic market.

A search on the booking portal of Ibom Air, for instance, shows the Lagos-Abuja flight for April 4 goes for N114,600, while Uyo to Abuja on the same airline and date also sells for the same N114,500.

For United Nigeria Airlines’ portal, the Kano-Lagos flight from April 1 to April 7 sells for N142,500 for a one-way ticket, while the Lagos-Port Harcourt flight for the same date goes for the same N142,500 on the airline’s portal.

Besides, the Lagos-Abuja flight for April 4 on Aero Contractors goes for N106,286, while the Asaba-Abuja flight on the same airline sells for N102,179.

However, Air Peace is the most expensive on the local scene, with Lagos to Abuja air tickets for April 3 bookings selling for N147,000, while the return ticket – Abuja to Lagos – also goes for the same rate.

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The airline source said that instead of the fares going up, the operators had kept them at the same price as two months ago, yet they were struggling to remain in business.

The source also attributed the situation to the number of scheduled indigenous operators, in spite of low passenger traffic.

As of the time of filing this report, there are about 15 scheduled operators, while another two airlines in February and March, Enugu Air and Binani Airlines, respectively, secured Air Operators’ Certificates from the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority, which would enable them to operate.

Nigeria’s passenger traffic has been on a steady decline in recent years. The industry recorded 15.6 million passenger movements on domestic and international routes in 2024, 15.8 million in 2023 and 16.2 million in 2022.

One of the sources said, “It’s the pressure of competition. Instead of going up, the pressure on pricing is downwards because of the number of players and the pricing they have entered the market with. It’s simply competitive pressure that keeps airfares stagnant.”

He, however, said that his airline was reviewing the current situation and would come up with a position in the coming weeks.

Data obtained from major fuel marketers in Nigeria indicated that aviation fuel currently goes for N2,557 per litre at Sokoto Airport, making it the airport with the most expensive sales of the product in Nigeria.

This is followed by Kano, which sells the product at N2,554 per litre, while both Port Harcourt and Asaba report rates of N2,543 per litre.

Besides, the product goes for N2,538 per litre at the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja; Enugu airport, N2,535 per litre; and Warri airport, N2,530 per litre.

For Anambra airport, the product goes for N2,529 per litre; for Asaba airport, N2,528 per litre, with Lagos recording the cheapest rate of aviation fuel at N2,500 per litre.

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While operators refused to comment on the development despite calls and text messages, industry experts expressed their views. Aviation analyst Olumide Ohunayo warned that even if airlines make fare adjustments, they may not be sufficient to offset the mounting losses triggered by the sharp rise in aviation fuel prices, describing the situation as unsustainable for operators.

Ohunayo, who spoke amid growing concerns over escalating ticket costs, said airlines are caught in a difficult position where even significant fare increases may still fall short of covering operational expenses.

He said, “No matter the increase that they can make now, they may not be able to recoup their losses as a result of the fuel increase. When you compare the prices with other nations, you will discover that the fuel price in Nigeria is on the high side.”

He highlighted the rapid spike in fuel prices within a short period, noting that the trend has placed enormous pressure on airline operations.

The industry expert expressed concern that, unlike other countries, Nigeria has yet to implement measures to ease the burden on both operators and consumers.

He said, “It was about N1,000 in January, N1,500 in February, and it has now moved to over N2,500 in March. And this is the same country where Dangote is exporting this same fuel to Europe, and you will then begin to imagine what incentives are given to cushion this development.

“Other countries are bringing in their reserves to reduce the effects on the citizenry, and they have also reduced their taxes, in some cases up to 50 per cent. An example of that is Australia.”

Ohunayo questioned the response of the Nigerian government, urging authorities to act swiftly to prevent further strain on the aviation sector.

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He called for targeted interventions, including temporary tax reliefs for airlines, to help cushion the impact of rising costs, saying, “What is the Nigerian government doing to reduce the effect of this on Nigerians? So, I feel that no matter the eventual increase from airline operators, it still cannot be enough.

“There must be a way to support operators during this period, maybe by reducing their taxes for three months. There must be a way for the government to come in. Why are the operators the ones bearing the highest cost?”

A retired pilot, Muhammad Badamosi, has said airlines may be reluctant to further increase airfares despite rising operational costs, citing fears of losing passengers to road transport amid the current economic realities.

He said, “Yes, I think it’s the fear of losing passengers because Nigerians currently do not have money, and many may have to resort to road travel. Yes, we understand that that is taking a toll on the operators, but it is what it is. That is the condition Nigeria currently finds itself in.”

Badamosi explained that while airlines are under pressure to adjust fares in response to rising aviation fuel costs, they are also constrained by the risk of pricing themselves out of the market.

According to him, the situation has created a difficult balance for operators, who must navigate between sustaining their businesses and retaining customer patronage.

“For instance, I used to visit Kaduna once every two months, but now I have cut it down to three times a year. My frequency used to be six times a year; now I go there three times a year.”

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