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Rising fuel prices: NNPC may supply foreign crude to Dangote refinery

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The Federal Government, through the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, has begun moves to secure crude oil supply for the Dangote Petroleum Refinery through third-party international traders, in a bid to sustain domestic refining operations, The PUNCH has learnt.

Officials, however, warned that the intervention may not immediately translate into lower petrol prices for consumers. Nigerians currently grapple with high fuel prices, following the recent hikes in the cost of the commodities by the $20bn Lekki-based refinery.

Oil dealers and industry players confirmed to one of our correspondents that the refinery temporarily suspended the loading of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol), a development that heightened speculation that another fuel price increase could be imminent.

This would mean the third surge in petrol prices within a week, following adjustments that pushed gantry prices from N774 to N995 per litre. As a result, retail pump prices in several states now exceed N1,000 per litre, as some stations now dispense petrol at about N1,200/litre, intensifying economic pressures on Nigerians.

This comes as recent market data illustrates the shift in crude sourcing patterns. Kpler analytics show that crude imports by Nigeria from the United States surged to 41.13 million barrels in 2025, up 161 per cent from 15.79 million barrels in 2024.

Amid the fuel price hike in Nigeria, motorists and industry observers are bracing for the impact on transport fares and the cost of goods. The refinery’s temporary halt in PMS loading, the second within a week, reflects logistical challenges in sustaining domestic supply, particularly given global crude market volatility. Analysts note that stabilising prices depends heavily on reliable crude allocation to domestic refineries.

One critical factor is the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, especially the Iran-US conflict, which has disrupted oil supply chains and pushed Brent crude prices above $92 per barrel. Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy transit corridor, have compounded the global price surge. The disruption has made it costly and difficult for refiners relying solely on local crude.

Multiple industry sources and officials from both NNPC and Dangote refinery confirmed that the national oil company is leveraging its global crude trading network to source third-party supply for the Dangote refinery at competitive international market rates.

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“Leveraging our global crude trading network, we are sourcing third-party crude for the refinery at prices that are competitive with prevailing international market rates,” a senior official at NNPC, who spoke in confidence due to the lack of authorisation to speak on the matter, told The PUNCH on Sunday.

The official further explained, “As the national oil company entrusted with safeguarding Nigeria’s energy security, NNPC Limited remains fully committed to supporting domestic refining, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. Within the framework of our existing agreements, we continue to facilitate crude supply to DRP, in the face of temporary availability constraints.”

The Dangote refinery has, however, cautioned that sourcing crude internationally may not immediately reduce pump prices. A refinery source explained: “The current Middle East crisis is affecting overall global energy prices, crude oil, LNG and other fuels, and that has implications for refined product pricing globally.”

The refinery also highlighted constraints in domestic supply. It receives just five cargoes a month from NNPC, instead of the 13 cargoes required under the naira-for-crude policy, forcing reliance on imported crude purchased at international market rates.

“Furthermore, while we receive about five cargoes a month from NNPC, which we pay for in naira, these cargoes are priced at international market prices plus premium and fall short of the 13 cargoes which we require to support sales into Nigeria,” the refinery stated.

Industry players speak

Industry stakeholders note that increased domestic refining output could help moderate petrol prices. Eche Idoko, National Publicity Secretary of the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria, said the naira-for-crude policy could influence pricing if fully implemented, but warned that imported crude costs and global tensions remain a limiting factor.

“Dangote needs 14 cargoes of crude from the government under the naira-for-crude policy, for the refinery to meet its demands. If this is done, it will impact price locally, but as long as the refinery sources the majority of its feedstock from the United States and must bypass the Strait of Hormuz, they will transfer the cost to Nigerian customers,” he said.

Idoko urged expansion of the policy to other domestic refineries to promote competition and further stabilise prices. He added that operational costs linked to Dangote’s location in a free trade zone also affect pricing:

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“This type of supply is treated as if it were coming from an external company because the refinery is located in a free trade zone, meaning many of the charges that apply to imports are still applicable. The additional cost of about $5 to $7 per barrel is substantial and should ideally be removed to help reduce the overall price consumers pay.”

Energy analysts also highlight the impact of limited import licences on market competition. Jeremiah Olatide, CEO of Petroleumprice.ng, said nearly 90 per cent of marketers seeking petrol import permits this year have been denied, giving the Dangote refinery dominant market influence.

“Importers haven’t really been given import licences. About 90 per cent of those who applied for PMS import permits were not issued approvals, largely to promote and encourage local refineries, particularly the Dangote refinery,” he noted.

Olatide stressed that a balance between local refining and controlled imports would strengthen energy security and stabilise prices. “Imports should not exceed about 20 to 25 per cent of total supply, while the rest is refined locally. That balance would strengthen the economy and improve energy security.”

Despite supply pressures, the presence of the Dangote refinery has cushioned Nigeria from more severe price spikes. “There are crises everywhere in the global energy market, and thankfully, we now have the Dangote refinery. If the refinery was not operating, petrol prices in Nigeria could easily have reached N1,500 per litre,” Olatide added.

Imports from US

Recent market data illustrates the shift in crude sourcing patterns. Kpler analytics show that US crude exports to Nigeria surged to 41.13 million barrels in 2025, up 161 per cent from 15.79 million barrels in 2024. This reflects Nigeria’s growing dependence on imported crude to meet refinery feedstock needs.

The surge in crude imports from the US coincides with Dangote’s increasing reliance on foreign crude. In July 2025, the refinery imported 590,000 barrels per day, with 60 per cent coming from US light sweet crude and 40 per cent from Nigerian grades, marking the first time US supply overtook domestic crude for Dangote.

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Analysts note that while this enhances compatibility with complex refining processes, it underscores the paradox of Africa’s largest oil producer relying on foreign crude despite rising local output.

Domestic crude allocations also remain insufficient. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission confirmed that between January and August 2025, local refiners received 67.66 million barrels, falling far short of the 123.48 million barrels requested. The shortfall reflects ongoing challenges in bridging the gap between rising production levels and refinery demand.

Meanwhile, the Dangote refinery has continued to manage operational realities in a deregulated environment. It absorbs part of the cost escalation to cushion consumers while ensuring an uninterrupted supply. “Selling below cost would undermine our ability to procure crude, sustain production, and guarantee supply,” a refinery official said.

The combined pressures of geopolitical tensions, local supply gaps, and market regulation have created a perfect storm for rising fuel prices. With petrol now retailing between N1,030 and N1,100 per litre in major cities, commercial drivers have already adjusted fares, and consumers are bracing for higher costs across the economy.

The rising fuel prices come as three key developments compound market pressure: the looming third petrol price hike, Dangote’s temporary suspension of fuel sales, and Nigeria’s tripling of US crude imports in one year. These factors illustrate the interplay between domestic refining capacity, international supply constraints, and government policies, shaping the country’s energy market in real time.

Meanwhile, it was gathered that the Dangote refinery has approved a new list of petroleum marketers and distribution partners to ensure continued lifting of PMS, expanding the pool from 13 to over 30 companies nationwide.

This includes NIPCO Plc, MRS Oil Nigeria Plc, TotalEnergies Marketing Nigeria Plc, Conoil Plc, and others, highlighting efforts to broaden access while navigating challenging supply and pricing conditions.

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Lawmakers oppose dollar billing for local petrol sales

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The House of Representatives has commenced moves to address mounting concerns in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, opposing the continued imposition of US dollar-denominated charges on locally refined petroleum products and announcing plans to investigate alleged irregularities in the allocation of fuel import licences.

The House Committee on Petroleum Resources (Downstream) disclosed this on Tuesday during an interactive session with key industry stakeholders, including the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, the Depot and Petroleum Products Marketers Association of Nigeria, and the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria.

The engagement forms part of the committee’s ongoing consultations on proposed amendments to the Petroleum Industry Act and broader reforms aimed at strengthening domestic refining, guaranteeing national energy security and ensuring a competitive downstream petroleum market.

The Chairman of the committee, Ikenga Ugochinyere, said the lawmakers would invite the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, the Nigerian Ports Authority, the Central Bank of Nigeria, refiners and other relevant agencies to respond to issues raised by industry operators.

“We’ll be meeting with the NMDPRA, NUPRC, the refiners—both modular refinery owners and the large refinery operators—as well as the NPA, the CBN and other relevant agencies on the issues that have been raised. These will form part of our downstream reforms, including proposed amendments to the Petroleum Industry Act and legislative motions to correct identified gaps,” Ugochinyere said.

The lawmaker expressed concern over the continued charging of port fees in U.S. dollars for petroleum products refined and transported within Nigeria, describing the practice as detrimental to the economy.

“We have taken special note of the issue of dollar-denominated charges by the Nigerian Ports Authority. It is not good for the economy that, at a time like this, people involved in domestic downstream activities are still being charged in dollars. That ultimately affects the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit,” he said.

Ugochinyere also pledged to investigate allegations that fuel import licences for the first three quarters of 2026 were issued to the same group of marketers.

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“We have also taken note of what you said about the lopsidedness in the issuance of import licences, where allocations for the first, second and third quarters went to the same set of operators. We will raise these questions when the NMDPRA appears before the committee to explain the criteria used in issuing those licences,” he added.

The committee chairman stressed the need to strike a balance between protecting Nigeria’s expanding domestic refining capacity and preserving the investments of marketers who have built storage and distribution infrastructure over several decades.

“How do we encourage and protect owners of domestic refineries while also protecting the investments of marketers? We cannot continue importing the same volume of petroleum products as before, given that more refineries are coming on stream. At the same time, we must guarantee national energy security in case local refineries experience disruptions.

“We need a balanced framework that supports domestic refining, preserves healthy competition and ensures the country always has a reliable fuel supply. That is the direction this committee is pursuing,” he said.

Presenting DAPPMAN’s memorandum, the association’s Executive Secretary, Mr Olufemi Adewole, urged lawmakers to address what he described as structural distortions affecting petroleum marketers and depot operators.

According to him, at least 72 of Nigeria’s 154 licensed petroleum depots recorded little or no trading activity over the past year because of what he described as an uneven operating environment.

“From the records of the NMDPRA, not fewer than 72 of the 154 depots nationwide had no regular or consistent trading activity in the last one year. They are merely paying salaries without engaging in meaningful business. This is largely due to an uneven playing field, persistent trading losses and the inability to access alternative sources of supply,” he said.

While welcoming the commencement of operations at the Dangote Refinery, Adewole warned against what he described as a near-monopoly in the supply of PMS.

“Our experience has been one of mixed feelings, bordering on an almost total monopoly in the supply of PMS by the mega refinery. Although the Petroleum Industry Act provides for a fully deregulated market where prices are determined by market forces, that has not been our experience,” he said.

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The association also accused the NMDPRA of allocating import permits repeatedly to the same group of marketers. “The same set of marketers received import allocations in the first, second and third quarters of 2026, as though other qualified operators do not exist. This is unacceptable, and we urge this committee to ensure greater transparency and fairness in future allocations,” Adewole said.

DAPPMAN argued that retaining the option of fuel imports remains necessary to prevent shortages during refinery maintenance, operational disruptions or logistics challenges.

“In order to avoid the return of fuel queues, the import option provided under the Petroleum Industry Act must remain available as a regulated contingency mechanism whenever domestic supply is insufficient,” he said.

The association also decried what it described as duplicated port charges and the continued billing of domestic petroleum transactions in foreign currency.

“Marketers are invoiced at the loading point and again at the discharge port for products moved entirely within Nigeria. More critically, certain charges are still imposed in US dollars despite the purely domestic nature of these transactions. This practice persists despite a presidential directive suspending foreign currency-denominated billing for local operations. We urge the committee to ensure compliance,” Adewole added.

DAPPMAN further called for accelerated dredging of major waterways, rehabilitation of pipelines and depots, improved rail transportation for petroleum products and the creation of a national downstream logistics master plan.

IPMAN National President, Abubakar Shettima, commended the Federal Government for encouraging private investment in refining but said marketers continue to grapple with high financing costs, multiple taxation, foreign exchange volatility, inadequate storage infrastructure and limited access to refinery products.

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He called for policies that would support domestic refining while preserving competition. “We support strengthening domestic refining, but we also need equitable access to locally refined petroleum products, affordable financing and reduced regulatory costs that ultimately increase pump prices,” he said.

Shettima proposed the establishment of a specialised Petroleum Bank to provide single-digit interest loans to operators. “Today, marketers borrow from commercial banks at interest rates of up to 32 per cent. Those costs are eventually passed on to consumers. We are proposing a Petroleum Bank that will provide single-digit interest loans, similar to what exists in the agriculture and industrial sectors,” he said.

He also urged multinational oil companies involved in fuel importation to invest in local refining. “Before now, we depended almost entirely on imported petroleum products. Today, Nigeria is exporting refined products. Multinational companies should invest in domestic refineries to complement the existing capacity rather than relying solely on imports,” he added.

On the future of Nigeria’s state-owned refineries, Shettima suggested that independent marketers be allowed to participate in their management.

“If independent marketers are allowed to participate in operating the government refineries, we believe we can contribute significantly to their revival. We have done it before. Independent marketers invested in what is today NIPCO, which has become one of Nigeria’s leading petroleum marketing companies,” he said.

The committee’s consultations come as Nigeria seeks to consolidate gains from recent reforms in the downstream petroleum sector following the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act and the expansion of domestic refining capacity.

Lawmakers are expected to engage regulators, refiners, NNPC Limited and other stakeholders before proposing legislative measures aimed at creating a more competitive, transparent and sustainable petroleum market while safeguarding the country’s long-term energy security.

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Nigeria tops Africa in petrol price surge during US-Iran war

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Nigeria recorded the sharpest increase in petrol price across Africa during the first half of 2026, with pump prices surging by 39.5 per cent as the Middle East conflict disrupted global crude oil supplies and exposed the country’s vulnerability to external market shocks despite growing domestic refining capacity.

The disclosure was contained in the Nigeria Half-Year Downstream Industry Report (January–June 2026) released on Tuesday by the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria.

According to the report, the conflict involving Israel, Iran and the United States, which began on February 28, 2026, triggered widespread uncertainty in global oil markets, sending crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and sharply increasing the cost of transporting petroleum products worldwide.

The report explained that the temporary disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz forced oil tankers to abandon the traditional route and sail around the Cape of Good Hope, more than doubling voyage time from about 18 days to nearly 40 days.

MEMAN stated, “During the first half of 2026, severe geopolitical tensions in the Middle East sparked immediate supply anxieties, injecting a heavy risk premium that drove international crude benchmarks past $100/bbl.

“This price surge was quickly compounded as the conflict bottlenecked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, forcing maritime oil tankers to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope and stretching what is typically an 18-day voyage into a nearly 40-day journey.”

The association said Nigeria’s deregulated petrol market transmitted the global price shock directly to consumers, making the country the hardest hit in Africa.

It said, “Operating under a newly deregulated system, Nigeria experienced an immediate price transmission at the pumps. Data from the height of the crisis revealed that Nigeria recorded a 39.5 per cent gasoline price surge, the sharpest increase across Africa, more than doubling the price jumps seen in regional peers like Egypt (14.3 per cent).”

Despite the sharp rise in prices, the report said the period also marked a significant turning point in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum industry as local refining displaced imported fuel at an unprecedented pace.

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According to MEMAN, the expansion of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery significantly reduced Nigeria’s dependence on imported Premium Motor Spirit.

The report stated, “Against the backdrop of this intense price shock, the downstream sector achieved a significant structural shift away from import dependence toward domestic refinery supply, driven primarily by the operational scale-up of the Dangote Refinery, which by the review period accounted for the majority of local PMS supply.”

It added, “Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) local refining share expanded from 38.9 per cent in 2025 to 81.7 per cent over the review period. Concurrently, local units met an average of 64 per cent of diesel demand, while domestic gas processing facilities captured 90.5 per cent of the cooking gas market.”

However, the association warned that increased domestic refining had yet to eliminate Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products. According to the report, local refinery production remained below national demand during critical periods between February and April, forcing regulators to approve fuel imports to prevent shortages.

MEMAN said, “However, the charts also highlight that domestic production alone was still structurally unable to fully bridge national demand, especially during peak periods. This supply-to-consumption deficit became visually evident between February and April, when the national consumption curve systematically crossed above domestic refinery output lines.”

It added, “To prevent severe product stockouts and stabilize the grid, the regulatory framework actively intervened by issuing refined product import licenses to selected marketers, a hybrid supply approach that successfully buffered fuel security during the worst of the international logistical shocks.”

The report further revealed that marketers drastically reduced fuel inventories because of soaring replacement costs, leading to a sharp decline in Nigeria’s strategic fuel reserves.

According to MEMAN, “The high-cost, volatile open-market environment forced aggressive realignments in inventory management across the value chain, as marketers optimized liquidity by drawing down physical buffers rather than holding expensive static wet stocks.”

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It added, “This structural shift caused national PMS stock sufficiency to drop progressively from 33 days in January to a low of 16 days by May, falling drastically short of the statutory 30-day safety benchmark, before recovering to roughly 20 days in June as licensed imports began filtering into the system.”

The marketers warned that the rapid depletion of fuel reserves highlighted the need for government-backed strategic petroleum reserves to cushion future global supply disruptions.

The report stated, “The rapid depletion of refined sufficiency days during the global shipping crisis underscored Nigeria’s lack of a resilient buffer, prioritizing the urgent downstream requirement to establish robust, state-backed Strategic Product Reserves and a dedicated Crude Oil Feedstock Reserve to insulate domestic refineries and consumers from sudden external supply chain closures.”

MEMAN also disclosed that persistently high fuel prices forced consumers to cut back on fuel purchases. It stated, “Furthermore, sustained open-market pricing triggered strong consumer demand elasticity, reducing average daily consumption by 22.3 per cent for PMS and 17.5 per cent for AGO.”

The association maintained that while Nigeria’s downstream reforms were beginning to yield results through higher domestic refining capacity, effective regulation would remain essential to sustain competition and protect consumers.

It added, “As domestic refining expands and the downstream sector evolves, sustained regulatory vigilance will remain essential to fostering fair competition, protecting consumers, strengthening investor confidence, and ensuring that the benefits of ongoing reforms are realised across the entire petroleum value chain.”

Under a section titled “Impact of the Middle East Conflict – Strait of Hormuz,” MEMAN said the conflict fundamentally altered global petroleum trade routes after the strategic waterway became temporarily inaccessible.

The report explained that suppliers increasingly shifted cargoes from the Persian Gulf to the U.S. Gulf Coast and West Africa as shipping companies sought safer alternative routes.

According to MEMAN, “The start of the conflict in the Middle East on 28th February 2026 and the subsequent temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz significantly reshaped global crude oil and petroleum product trade flows during the first half of the year. Under normal market conditions, the Gulf serves as the primary export hub for refined petroleum products moving to Europe, Asia and parts of Africa.”

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It continued, “However, with access through the Strait severely restricted, cargoes were rerouted to alternative supply sources, particularly from the U.S. Gulf Coast and West Africa. The longer sailing distances, coupled with higher freight and insurance costs, increased delivered product costs and placed additional pressure on global shipping capacity.”

MEMAN further stated, “Under normal conditions, some Gulf-origin cargoes could reach key Asian markets in approximately 18 days via the Strait of Hormuz; however, rerouting around longer alternative routes extended voyage times to nearly 40 days, significantly delaying supply flows and increasing logistical costs. The disruptions reinforced the importance of diversified refining centers and demonstrated the growing strategic role of Atlantic Basin suppliers in maintaining global product availability during supply shocks.”

The first half of 2026 was one of the most volatile periods for Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector since the full deregulation of the petrol market. Pump prices became fully responsive to movements in international crude oil prices, foreign exchange fluctuations, freight costs and supply chain disruptions following the removal of petrol subsidies.

Although the operational expansion of the 700,000-barrels-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery substantially reduced Nigeria’s reliance on imported petrol during the review period, local refining capacity was still insufficient to meet peak national demand, prompting the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority to approve imports by selected marketers to maintain energy security.

The report underscores the opportunities and challenges of Nigeria’s transition to a market-driven downstream sector, where increased domestic refining has strengthened supply resilience but global geopolitical events continue to exert a significant influence on domestic fuel prices.

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Dangote to donate one-third of wealth to charity, daughter reveals

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Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, plans to donate one-third of his wealth to charity as part of his succession plan, his daughter, Halima Dangote, has revealed.

Halima, a trustee of the Aliko Dangote Foundation, disclosed the arrangement in an interview with Bloomberg published on Tuesday, saying the billionaire had secured his family’s support to dedicate 33 per cent of his estate to philanthropy.

According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Dangote’s net worth is estimated at $35.1 billion, meaning one-third of his current fortune would amount to about $11.7 billion if maintained at that level.

Explaining the decision, Halima said her father considers philanthropy central to his legacy and has embedded it into the family’s long-term succession plans.

“He sort of put all the structure in place whereby we focus a lot on health and education. He actually donated 25 per cent to the foundation. If you look at it, it is what we call in Sharia Code in Islam; it means he has donated 33 per cent of his whole inheritance to his foundation,” she said.

“That is how important it is to him because philanthropy needs to be in existence generation after generation.

“So giving back is part and parcel of what we do. We believe we’re here, that our business is successful because of the giving back and because of the philanthropic aspect. That is why the 33 per cent is important.

“And that is why he made an announcement and he asked myself, my two sisters and his mother to sign under that will that he is able to give that 33 per cent to humanity.”

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The planned donation builds on Dangote’s existing philanthropic work through the Aliko Dangote Foundation, established in 1994.

According to Halima, the foundation was endowed with $1.25 billion about a decade ago and has since received an additional $700 million in funding.

She said about 70 per cent of the foundation’s spending is directed to Nigeria, while 20 per cent supports projects across Africa and the remainder funds initiatives in other parts of the world.

The foundation’s interventions span health, education, nutrition and humanitarian relief, and include partnerships with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and state governments in northern Nigeria that contributed to the eradication of wild poliovirus in Africa.

Dangote’s planned charitable commitment comes amid growing global attention on billionaire philanthropy. While the proposed 33 per cent allocation falls short of the 50 per cent threshold commonly associated with the Giving Pledge, it would rank among the largest philanthropic commitments ever announced by an African billionaire.

Earlier this year, TIME magazine named Dangote among the world’s most influential philanthropists in its inaugural TIME100 Philanthropy list, recognising his charitable work through the Aliko Dangote Foundation, which spends more than ₦50 billion annually on programmes across Africa.

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