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States’ capital spending plunges 58% as 2027 politics intensifies

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The capital expenditure by 26 state governments plunged by N2.19tn within three months in the first quarter of 2026, raising concerns over slowing infrastructure development and worsening fiscal pressures as politics for next year’s elections intensifies.

An analysis of quarter-on-quarter financial reports published on the official websites of the states showed that total capital expenditure fell by N2.20tn, representing a 58.1 per cent decline, from N3.79tn recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025 to N1.59tn in the first quarter of 2026.

Similarly, a breakdown of state government expenditure between January and June 2025 showed that 31 states collectively spent N2.75tn, averaging N1.38tn on capital projects during the six-month period.

The sharp contraction comes amid growing political activities and early alignments ahead of the 2027 general elections, a period analysts say could increasingly shift government attention from long-term infrastructure investments to political calculations and recurrent spending.

The data were obtained by our correspondent in Abuja on Sunday from quarterly budget implementation and financial performance reports uploaded on the official websites of the states.

The figures gathered and analysed by our correspondent indicate a decline of N2.19tn, representing a 57.9 per cent drop within three months, highlighting a slowdown in infrastructure and development spending across many states.

The findings are against the backdrop of a PUNCH report that the external debt of 32 states and the Federal Capital Territory climbed to nearly $5.7bn in fresh loans in 2025, pushing subnational foreign debt sharply higher year-on-year despite increased inflows from Federation Account Allocation Committee allocations.

The data showed that only one state, Oyo, recorded a significant increase in capital expenditure during the period under review, while most states posted sharp declines in spending.

The PUNCH reports that state government capital expenditure is the money set aside for development projects and public infrastructure that will benefit residents over a long period.

It is meant for building and improving facilities such as roads, schools, hospitals, water projects, housing, electricity infrastructure, public transport systems, and other major projects that support economic growth and public welfare. The aim is to create assets that improve living conditions, attract investment, create jobs, and boost economic activities within the state.

An increase in capital expenditure means more investment in critical infrastructure aimed at improving the welfare of the people, while a reduction indicates slower infrastructure development and fewer completed projects.

Out of the 36 states, only 26 had uploaded their financial data as of the time of filing this report, while 10 states had yet to publish their first-quarter financial performance reports.

The states that published their financial data are Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Ebonyi, Ekiti, Enugu, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Niger, Ondo, Oyo, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, and Zamfara.

The states whose data were unavailable are Abia, Anambra, Delta, Edo, Imo, Nasarawa, Ogun, Osun, Plateau, and Rivers.

Breakdown of figures

A breakdown of the figures showed that Lagos retained its position as the highest spending state on capital projects despite recording a decline. Lagos spent N340.76bn on capital projects in the first quarter of 2026, down from N535.46bn in the fourth quarter of 2025. This represents a decline of N194.70bn or 36.4 per cent.

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However, Oyo emerged as the only major exception to the nationwide slowdown. The state increased its capital expenditure from N105.35bn in the fourth quarter of 2025 to N231.27bn in the first quarter of 2026. The increase of N125.93bn represents a 119.5 per cent rise, making Oyo the state with the highest growth rate during the period.

The sharp increase in Oyo’s spending coincided with the state’s borrowing profile, as the state also recorded the highest loan figure among the reporting states. Oyo borrowed N164.88bn in the first quarter of 2026.

Akwa Ibom recorded one of the biggest spending cuts among the states reviewed. The oil-rich state reduced its capital expenditure from N428.64bn in the fourth quarter of 2025 to N137.39bn in the first quarter of 2026. The drop of N291.26bn represents a 67.9 per cent decline.

Bayelsa also posted a steep decline. Its capital expenditure fell from N384.81bn in the fourth quarter of 2025 to N77.51bn in the first quarter of 2026. This translates to a decrease of N307.30bn or 79.9 per cent.

Enugu recorded one of the sharpest contractions in percentage terms. The state’s capital spending plunged from N365.69bn to N31.37bn. The decline of N334.33bn represents a massive 91.4 per cent reduction.

Kano also witnessed a decline in spending, though less severe compared to several other states. The state’s capital expenditure dropped from N141.29bn in the fourth quarter of 2025 to N121.96bn in the first quarter of 2026. The decline of N19.33bn represents a 13.7 per cent decrease.

Niger State reduced its capital expenditure from N116.05bn to N79.28bn. The drop of N36.77bn represents a decline of 31.7 per cent. The state, however, recorded borrowings of N39.28bn during the period.

Bauchi spent N85.39bn in the first quarter of 2026 compared to N94.45bn in the previous quarter. This represents a decline of N9.06bn or 9.6 per cent. The state also recorded borrowings of N56.57bn.

Jigawa’s capital expenditure dropped from N193.88bn to N60.62bn. The decline of N133.26bn represents a 68.7 per cent reduction.

Kaduna reduced its capital spending from N106.92bn to N39.51bn. The state recorded a decline of N67.41bn or 63.1 per cent.

Katsina’s capital expenditure fell from N227.80bn to N55.08bn. The drop of N172.73bn represents a 75.8 per cent decline.

Benue recorded capital expenditure of N25.42bn in the first quarter of 2026, down from N114.59bn in the fourth quarter of 2025. This represents a decline of N89.17bn or 77.8 per cent.

Cross River’s capital expenditure dropped from N114.32bn to N19.48bn. The reduction of N94.84bn represents an 83 per cent decline.

Ebonyi reduced its spending from N118.10bn to N31.77bn. The decline of N86.34bn represents a 73.1 per cent decrease.

Ekiti’s capital expenditure fell from N50.05bn to N16.92bn. This represents a drop of N33.12bn or 66.2 per cent.

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Gombe spent N36.19bn in the first quarter of 2026 against N68.06bn in the previous quarter. The state recorded a decline of N31.87bn or 46.8 per cent.

Kebbi reduced its capital spending from N55.87bn to N17.43bn. This represents a decline of N38.44bn or 68.8 per cent.

Kogi’s expenditure dropped from N48.40bn to N21.52bn. The decline of N26.88bn represents a 55.5 per cent reduction.

Kwara recorded capital expenditure of N13.68bn in the first quarter of 2026 compared to N61.65bn in the fourth quarter of 2025. The drop of N47.97bn represents a 77.8 per cent decline.

Ondo reduced capital spending from N52.49bn to N13.56bn. This represents a decline of N38.94bn or 74.2 per cent.

Sokoto’s capital expenditure fell from N59.31bn to N16.82bn. The decline of N42.49bn represents a 71.6 per cent reduction.

Taraba spent N16.91bn in the first quarter of 2026, compared to N26.77bn in the previous quarter. The state recorded a decline of N9.85bn or 36.8 per cent.

Yobe’s capital expenditure dropped from N76.74bn to N31.79bn. The decline of N44.95bn represents a 58.6 per cent decrease.

Zamfara reduced spending from N104.04bn to N28.99bn. The state recorded a decline of N75.05bn or 72.1 per cent.

Adamawa also posted a steep decline. The state’s capital expenditure dropped from N90.77bn in the fourth quarter of 2025 to N22.93bn in the first quarter of 2026. This represents a decline of N67.84bn or 74.7 per cent.

Borno’s spending declined from N46.89bn to N19.91bn. The drop of N26.98bn represents a 57.5 per cent reduction.

An analysis of the first quarter 2026 financial reports of 26 states showed that subnational governments borrowed a combined N361.98bn within three months despite a widespread decline in capital expenditure across the country.

Oyo recorded the highest borrowing figure at N164.88bn, accounting for nearly half of the total loans obtained by the reporting states during the period. Bauchi followed with N56.57bn, while Niger borrowed N39.28bn. Taraba secured fresh loans worth N23.4bn, while Ebonyi and Yobe borrowed N20bn each.

Katsina obtained N8.55bn in loans, Kaduna recorded borrowings of N8.06bn, while Gombe borrowed N7.61bn. Jigawa secured N6.27bn, Ekiti borrowed N3.01bn, while Borno obtained N2.85bn.

Kwara recorded loans worth N438.88m, Ondo borrowed N300m, while Kogi posted the lowest borrowing figure at N5.32m.

The figures showed that 13 of the 26 states that published their financial reports recorded fresh borrowings in the first quarter of 2026, highlighting the growing reliance on debt financing amid rising fiscal pressures and slowing capital spending.

Analysts speak

Analysts said the sharp drop in capital expenditure may reflect the typical slowdown that follows aggressive end-of-year spending by governments trying to implement annual budgets before year-end deadlines.

Economic experts also noted that the decline could be linked to rising debt obligations, revenue pressures, and adjustments following the implementation of fiscal reforms.

A Professor of Economics at Babcock University, Segun Ajibola, stated that the enduring problem of high governance expenses had persisted at the state level, with inadequate oversight and accountability resulting in minimal economic benefits for grassroots citizens.

The Director and Chief Economist at Proshare Nigeria LLC, Teslim Shitta-Bey, warned that the rising debt burden on Nigeria’s subnational governments could challenge their fiscal stability in the coming years. He stressed that most state governments, along with the Federal Government, had failed to effectively manage their balance sheets.

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Speaking recently to The PUNCH, Shitta-Bey said, “The challenge here is that most of the governments, including the Federal Government, are unable to manage their balance sheets properly. While borrowing might seem like an easy way to run operations, it is not necessarily the right approach.”

According to Shitta-Bey, borrowing should not be the default solution for governments. “Governments could consider longer-term debt structures that resemble equity, which might actually be more beneficial in the long run,” he explained.

A macroeconomic analyst, Dayo Adenubi, also emphasised the need for states to take more targeted steps toward boosting internally generated revenue as they grapple with rising debt obligations and constrained federal transfers.

However, the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Muda Yusuf, posited that capital expenditure usually records slower spending in the early part of the year because of lengthy procurement and contracting procedures.

According to him, unlike recurrent expenditure, which covers regular expenses such as salaries, travels, and other day-to-day government operations, capital projects require more bureaucratic processes before funds can be disbursed.

Muda, speaking during a telephone interview on Sunday, said, “On capital expenditure, the process is usually longer. The contracting processes, procurement, and tendering take more time. It is not like recurrent expenditure, where spending happens every day through salaries, travels, and the like.

“For capital expenditure, there are usually more disbursements around the second and third quarter because by then they would have concluded most of the procurement processes, which are often very bureaucratic. It also involves huge sums of money, and payments are not made at once. So, for capital expenditure to gather momentum, it usually gets to the second or third quarter before you begin to see significant spending.”

The reduction in capital spending by many states could have implications for economic growth, job creation, and infrastructure development, especially at a time when subnational governments are expected to play a larger role in driving economic activities.

Strong spending

Despite the slowdown, some states maintained relatively strong spending levels. Lagos, Oyo, Akwa Ibom, Kano, and Bauchi emerged as the top five states in terms of capital expenditure in the first quarter of 2026.

The figures also showed that several states relied on borrowings to support spending amid declining revenues and rising fiscal pressures.

Financial analysts have repeatedly warned that increasing debt accumulation without corresponding revenue growth may worsen fiscal sustainability challenges for subnational governments.

However, state governments have argued that borrowings remain necessary to finance critical infrastructure projects and bridge funding gaps.

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Businesses expect CBN to hold rates as MPC meets today

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Organised Private Sector leaders and economists have projected that the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee will most likely retain the Monetary Policy Rate at 26.5 per cent when it meets on Monday and Tuesday, citing heightened geopolitical tensions and their potential impact on inflation.

The stakeholders noted that Nigerian businesses would welcome a rate cut to ease borrowing costs and support investment, particularly in the manufacturing sector, which has struggled under high interest rates.

Their position comes despite a recent CBN Inflation Expectations Survey showing that 61.1 per cent of Nigerians want interest rates reduced ahead of the MPC meeting.

In telephone interviews with The PUNCH, economists and business leaders, including the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, said prevailing global uncertainties, particularly the renewed conflict involving the United States and Iran, made it too early for the apex bank to begin further monetary easing.

“What I expect is a hold because it is possibly too soon to relax the MPR because of the current geopolitical issues. We have seen a very dramatic escalation, and this has implications for major macroeconomic indicators, particularly the general price level. Energy prices feed strongly into inflationary pressures, and crude oil prices have risen above $84. The inflation outlook is looking very disturbing,” Yusuf said.

He added, “It is unlikely there will be a rate cut. It is also not likely that there will be a further increase because the last inflation figure showed only a marginal deceleration. Although I don’t mind a rate cut because interest rates are too high, given the prevailing global conditions, especially the Middle East conflict, people hoping for a rate cut should exercise more patience.”

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The President of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Leye Kupoluyi, said businesses would benefit significantly from lower borrowing costs, noting that high interest rates remained a major component of the cost of doing business.

“Everyone wants a reduced interest rate. Interest rate is a major part of the cost of doing business because everybody needs funds for their business. If the interest rate is high, the cost of business will be very high. The lower the interest rate, the better. It will allow businesses to plan and borrow money instead of relying on short-term loans that ultimately increase costs for consumers,” Kupoluyi said.

He, however, urged caution ahead of the MPC decision, saying, “Let’s see what they come up with. We have to look at it both ways. But definitely, for interest rates to come down, it is for the benefit of industry, businesses, and ultimately the customer.”

A Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the University of Uyo, Prof Akpan Ekpo, also predicted that the committee would likely maintain the current rate because of the uncertainty created by the US-Iran conflict.

“Many people would like a reduced interest rate because the MPR is the anchor rate for bank lending. But my worries are the US-Iran war. We don’t know when it is going to end. For that reason, I suspect they might keep the rate the same for a while,” Ekpo said.

He warned that the conflict could worsen inflationary pressures. “If I were with the MPC, I would hold the rate the way it is for now and wait for the next meeting. With the Iran-US war, inflation may go up. When inflation goes up, the MPC would be inclined to increase rates to contain inflation. The government should instead focus on the manufacturing sector so that we can create jobs,” he added.

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The Chief Executive Officer of Economic Associates, Dr Ayo Teriba, said while businesses and households desired lower interest rates, the MPC would likely base its decision on data unavailable to the public.

“Every reasonable person wants to see lower interest rates. We have seen stable exchange rates, and inflation has hovered around 15 per cent for six months. But the committee will determine whether this is the right time to ease policy. I don’t have access to the information they have, so I will wait for them to explain whatever decision they take,” Teriba said.

He noted that the conflict in the Middle East had not significantly altered Nigeria’s inflation trend so far but cautioned against pre-empting the committee’s decision. “I’d like to see the monetary policy rate and the CRR come down, but I accept my limitation that I don’t have access to the information available to the MPC. I will wait to be informed by them,” Teriba said.

Businesses have repeatedly argued that high borrowing costs have constrained investment, especially in the manufacturing sector, where operators say access to affordable long-term credit remains critical for expansion, job creation and increased production.

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States pocket N2.37tn VAT under new tax regime

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State governments received N2.37tn from Value Added Tax revenue generated in the first half of 2026, representing an increase of N451.25bn compared with the corresponding period of 2025, an analysis by The PUNCH has shown.

The figure indicates that states’ VAT allocation rose by 23.48 per cent from N1.92tn in the first six months of 2025, according to Federation Account Allocation Committee reports and data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the Office of the Accountant General of the Federation collated by The PUNCH on Sunday.

The analysis covered VAT generated from January to June 2026, although the proceeds were distributed at FAAC meetings held between February and July. Under the FAAC arrangement, revenue earned in a particular month is shared among the three tiers of government in the following month. This means that January revenue was distributed in February, while June revenue was shared in July.

A total of N4.31tn in distributable VAT revenue was shared among the Federal Government, states and local government councils during the first half of 2026. This was N471.07bn, or 12.26 per cent, higher than the N3.84tn distributed in the corresponding period of 2025.

The H1 2026 distributable VAT pool accounted for 33.09 per cent of the N13.04tn total distributable federation revenue shared during the six-month period.

In comparison, VAT represented about 37.99 per cent of the N10.12tn shared in the first half of 2025. This means that although VAT revenue increased in absolute terms in 2026, its share of total FAAC distributions declined because statutory and other federation revenues grew at a faster pace.

The N13.04tn shared from revenue generated between January and June 2026 was N2.92tn, or 28.86 per cent, above the N10.12tn distributed from revenue generated in the corresponding period of 2025.

The rise in states’ VAT receipts was driven by higher distributable VAT collections in four of the six months and the implementation of a new vertical sharing formula that increased the collective share allocated to states.

Before the commencement of the new tax regime on January 1, 2026, distributable VAT was shared 15 per cent to the Federal Government, 50 per cent to states, and 35 per cent to local government councils.

Under the new tax laws, the Federal Government’s share was reduced to 10 per cent, while the states’ portion increased to 55 per cent. The local governments’ allocation remained unchanged at 35 per cent.

The tax reforms took effect as scheduled from January 1, 2026, following the signing of the new tax laws in June 2025. The adjustment transferred five percentage points of the distributable VAT pool from the Federal Government to the states.

Based on the N4.31tn VAT distributed in H1 2026, the Federal Government gave up about N215.72bn to the states because of the change in the formula.

Had the previous 15 per cent formula remained in place, the Federal Government would have received about N647.15bn from the H1 VAT pool. Under the current 10 per cent allocation, its expected share was about N431.43bn.

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States would have collectively received N2.16tn under the old 50 per cent formula. However, the current 55 per cent allocation raised their share to about N2.37tn, giving them an additional N215.72bn.

The local governments’ 35 per cent share was unaffected by the adjustment. They received about N1.51tn from the distributable VAT pool during the six months.

In January 2026, whose revenue was distributed in February, states received N551.77bn from VAT. This was the highest monthly VAT allocation to states in the first half of the year. The amount was N192.38bn, or 53.53 per cent, higher than the N359.39bn allocated to states from January 2025 VAT revenue.

The distributable VAT pool for January 2026 stood at about N1tn, against N718.78bn in January 2025, representing an increase of N284.44bn, or 39.57 per cent.

The January VAT surge was followed by a decline in February. States received N340.52bn from February 2026 VAT revenue, which was shared in March. This represented a month-on-month fall of N211.26bn, or 38.29 per cent, from the January allocation.

Despite the monthly reduction, the February figure was N35.80bn, or 11.75 per cent, higher than the N304.72bn received by states from VAT generated in February 2025.

FAAC distributed N619.12bn in VAT revenue for February 2026, compared with N609.43bn in the corresponding month of 2025. The distributable pool therefore increased by N9.69bn, or 1.59 per cent, year on year.

States’ VAT allocation declined further to N283.47bn from March 2026 revenue, which was shared at the April FAAC meeting.

The March amount was N57.05bn, or 16.75 per cent, below the February allocation. It was also N13.41bn, or 4.52 per cent, lower than the N296.88bn received from March 2025 VAT revenue.

The total distributable VAT revenue for March 2026 fell to N515.39bn, down by N78.36bn, or 13.20 per cent, from N593.75bn in March 2025. The trend changed in April, when states received N410.90bn from VAT revenue shared in May. This represented a month-on-month increase of N127.43bn, or 44.96 per cent, from the March figure.

Compared with the N299.04bn allocated from April 2025 VAT revenue, the April 2026 figure rose by N111.86bn, or 37.41 per cent. The distributable VAT pool increased to N747.09bn in April 2026, from N598.08bn in the corresponding month of 2025. This amounted to a year-on-year increase of N149.01bn, or 24.92 per cent.

The OAGF said gross VAT revenue increased to N806.62bn in April from N664.43bn in March, reflecting increased collections before deductions for collection costs and other adjustments. States received N378.83bn from May 2026 VAT revenue distributed in June. This was N32.07bn, or 7.80 per cent, lower than the April allocation.

On a year-on-year basis, however, the amount was N32.98bn, or 9.53 per cent, higher than the N345.86bn received from VAT generated in May 2025. The May 2026 distributable VAT pool stood at N688.79bn, marginally below the N691.71bn recorded in May 2025. The N2.93bn difference represented a decline of 0.42 per cent.

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In June, states’ VAT receipts recovered to N407.40bn. The revenue, shared in July, was N28.57bn, or 7.54 per cent, higher than the May allocation. It also exceeded the N315.75bn received from VAT generated in June 2025 by N91.64bn, representing an increase of 29.02 per cent.

The distributable VAT pool for June 2026 rose to N740.72bn, up by N109.22bn, or 17.29 per cent, from N631.51bn in June 2025. The monthly pattern showed that states received more VAT revenue year on year in January, February, April, May, and June. March was the only month in which their VAT allocation fell below the corresponding 2025 level.

Beyond VAT, the three tiers also benefited from increased overall FAAC distributions during the first half of the year. The Federal Government received N4.57tn from revenue generated between January and June 2026. This was N1.17tn, or 34.47 per cent, above the N3.40tn allocated to it in the corresponding period of 2025.

The Federal Government’s monthly allocations were N577.91bn from January revenue, N675.09bn in February, N789.16bn in March, N787.35bn in April, N818.68bn in May and N923.44bn in June.

Its allocation rose during most of the period despite the reduction in its VAT share because statutory federation revenue and other components of the distributable pool increased.

State governments received a total of N4.47tn in general FAAC allocations during H1 2026, excluding the separate 13 per cent derivation payments to oil-producing states. This represented an increase of N1.05tn, or 30.58 per cent, over the N3.43tn received by the states during the first half of 2025.

Their monthly general allocations stood at N794.01bn from January revenue, N651.53bn in February, N657.60bn in March, N772.36bn in April, N759.14bn in May, and N838.21bn in June.

Local government councils received N3.13tn during the six-month period, up from N2.50tn in H1 2025. This represented an increase of N625.42bn, or 24.98 per cent.

Their monthly allocations were N537.88bn from January revenue, N456.47bn in February, N468.83bn in March, N540.15bn in April, N534.28bn in May, and N591.39bn in June.

Oil-producing states also received N864.89bn as 13 per cent mineral revenue derivation during H1 2026. The amount was N73.57bn, or 9.30 per cent, higher than the N791.33bn paid as derivation revenue in the corresponding period of 2025.

The monthly derivation payments rose from N90.19bn in January to N110.95bn in February and N120.76bn in March. They increased to N157.25bn in April, N188.13bn in May, and N197.61bn in June. The figures show that the new VAT formula delivered an immediate gain to states while reducing the Federal Government’s claim on consumption tax revenue.

The PUNCH earlier reported that the Nigeria Economic Summit Group warned that the Federal Government could face revenue shortfalls if it does not increase the value-added tax rate as part of the ongoing tax reform process.

The Chief Executive Officer of NESG, Dr Tayo Aduloju, made this statement during an interactive media session in Abuja. He emphasised that while reforms to the VAT system are essential, maintaining the current VAT rate without an increase could result in a significant loss of revenue for the government.

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According to him, simply reducing the number of taxes without adjusting the VAT rate could weaken the government’s revenue base.

Also, in its 2025 Consultation Report on Nigeria, the International Monetary Fund noted that although the recent tax reforms approved by the National Assembly and President Bola Tinubu represent a major step forward in modernising the VAT and Company Income Tax regimes, the choice to maintain the current VAT rate would lead to an immediate revenue shortfall.

It stated that the Federal Government may lose as much as 0.5 per cent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product in revenue following its decision not to raise the VAT rate.

According to the Fund, unless alternative financing options are found, subnational governments may be forced to either scale back spending or ramp up their own revenue efforts. The IMF, however, acknowledged the government’s justification for delaying a VAT hike, particularly at a time of worsening poverty and food insecurity.

Speaking earlier at the launch of the BudgIT State of States 2025 Report in Abuja, where he delivered the keynote address, the current Minister of Finance and the Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, projected that states could earn more than N4tn annually from 2026 when new Value Added Tax reforms take effect.

He said, “With VAT reforms kicking in from 2026, states’ share will rise to 55 per cent. That could amount to over N4tn in 2026. The question is: will this money be spent, or will it be invested?”

Economic analysts earlier called on state governments to intensify efforts to unlock internal revenue as their allocations under the revised sharing formula increase.

A former Chairman of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, Prof Segun Ajibola, called for transparency in the use of the increased allocations, adding, “If a state government wants to be accountable, each state government should set up a desk to account for the increase in the VAT allocation and make the report known to the public. There is so much to spend on agriculture and other public utilities.”

Also, the Chief Executive Officer of Economic Associates, Dr Ayo Teriba, earlier said VAT historically replaced state sales tax and originally belonged to states. “The tax belonged to the states. It is for ease of collection that the federal government decides to collect on behalf of the states,” Teriba noted.

He further cautioned states against overdependence on statutory allocations, advising, “Not to make a mountain out of a molehill (as) these are smaller amounts for the states.”

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Marketers halt Dangote fuel loading, FG steps in on Dollar sale row

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Marketers of petroleum products have stated that the loading of fuel has been put on hold at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery following the facility’s decision to sell fuel in dollars.

Many marketers told The PUNCH on Sunday that the facility was not even loading its trucks, sparking fear of possible fuel tightness across the country. But the refinery denied the claim, arguing that fuel loading was ongoing within the Lekki-based plant.

Petroleum marketers said they suspended large-scale fuel loading in the last few days as they await clarity on the new pricing template being adopted by the refinery. They also await the cost of newly imported petroleum products.

The development heightened uncertainty in the downstream petroleum sector, with marketers wary of buying large volumes of petrol at the prevailing prices only to see the cost of the product fall shortly after.

The National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, in a telephone interview on Sunday, said marketers were being forced to adopt a cautious approach because of the uncertainty surrounding the next price of petrol.

“The issue is simple; marketers are not buying because they are trying to look at the market dynamics. Whatever we are using today is existing products in tank farms, which we are buying around N1,250 and N1,300,” Ukadike said.

He said the uncertainty had been worsened by the expected arrival of new crude supplies and imported petrol, whose pricing templates remained unclear.

“The problem we are now facing is that this new crude oil that they are bringing- what will be the template? Also, those who have brought in petroleum products and are given licences are also estimated to place their price at N1,350, which marketers are also wary of,” he stated.

Ukadike said marketers were therefore reluctant to load large volumes because they could not predict whether the price of petrol would rise or fall after they had purchased the product.

“So everyone is just sceptical about loading products because when you load, you don’t know the next price, if it is going to reduce or go higher. You are still expected by consumers to sell at the prevailing price,” he said.

According to him, the uncertainty has not completely halted the distribution of petrol, but has significantly reduced the volume being loaded by marketers.

He urged the Federal Government to intervene and resolve the dispute over the pricing template, warning that continued uncertainty could further disrupt the downstream market. “The Federal Government has to look inward and resolve this issue once and for all. This template issue should be resolved immediately,” Ukadike said.

In a report by NAN, marketers in the South-West confirmed that the uncertainty over petrol prices has forced many to halt fresh purchases, leading to the temporary closure of some filling stations.

The Zonal Chairman of IPMAN, Western Zone, Oyewole Akanni, disclosed this in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria on Sunday in Ibadan. Akanni said the situation was triggered by the suspension of loading of Premium Motor Spirit at the Dangote refinery about four days ago.

He said the development had forced marketers to source products from private depots at significantly higher prices. According to him, the cheapest ex-depot price at private depots in Lagos currently ranges between N1,200 and N1,220 per litre, excluding transportation costs.

He added that marketers who bought products on Friday paid between N1,210 and N1,220 per litre. “The non-availability of fuel at some filling stations and the closure of others are due to fluctuations in the price of lifting fuel from depots.

“Since the Dangote refinery stopped selling PMS about four days ago, private depot owners have increased their prices. Many filling stations that have exhausted their stock are waiting to see whether prices will come down when the Dangote refinery resumes sales or increase further. Only a few marketers are buying products for now because of the uncertainty,” he said.

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Akanni, however, maintained that there was no fuel scarcity, urging motorists and other consumers not to engage in panic buying. “There is no fuel scarcity. Members of the public should not panic. Although there is a possibility of an increase in the pump price if the current situation persists,” he said.

The zonal chairman said the Dangote refinery neither gave prior notice nor explained the reason for the suspension of PMS sales to marketers. Akanni said four truckloads of petrol meant for his filling stations had remained at the refinery since the suspension of loading.

“I was supposed to have received four truckloads of PMS four days ago, but that has not happened because the trucks are at the Dangote refinery, which has not been selling. The company is not even loading its own trucks. They are all parked there,” he said.

The IPMAN chief said the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited was also affected because it sourced products from the Dangote Refinery. According to him, private depots are now selling PMS for as much as N1,250 per litre, while marketers can obtain products from NIPCO and Aiteo at about N1,200 per litre.

“The major issue now is the fluctuation in depot prices, which has created uncertainty in the market,” Akanni said.

Official denies claim

However, a spokesman for the Dangote Group dismissed the report as “fake news”, accusing some marketers of spreading false information. The spokesman told one of our correspondents that the refinery had not stopped loading petroleum products.

“The refinery is loading. Anybody can go there to check. That’s fake news to say we are not loading,” the official, who pleaded not to have his name in print due to the sensitive nature of the matter, stated.

He noted that marketers importing petrol were finding it difficult to compete because prices in Lomé, Togo, had risen, making it increasingly difficult to match Dangote’s prices.

FG vs Dangote

The PUNCH reports that the Federal Government and the Dangote Petroleum Refinery have yet to reach an agreement on the issues that prompted the refinery to adopt a dollar-based pricing template, a development that could prolong uncertainty in the downstream petroleum sector and lead to a further increase in the price of Premium Motor Spirit, also known as petrol.

A senior government official involved in the ongoing discussions revealed on Sunday. The PUNCH gathered that the ongoing standoff is caused by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery grievance on the continued issuance of import licences to marketers and a row on the modalities of crude oil supply.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the negotiations, said the dispute had gone beyond the price of petrol, stressing that it was also linked to the volume of crude supplied to the refinery and the proportion of crude sold to it in naira.

According to the official, the refinery has been unhappy with the Federal Government over the continued issuance of import licences to some oil marketers despite its ability to refine large volumes of petrol for the domestic market.

The official said Dangote was also dissatisfied with the volume of crude supplied to the refinery by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, as well as the relatively small proportion of the crude purchased in naira.

“So the issue is that Dangote is unhappy about two things; one is that the government gave import permits. They issued import permits to some companies while his refinery is capable. So he was already angry on that level.

“Then number two is that the refinery is saying that it is not getting enough crude oil even from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited. The percentage of naira for crude that they are giving to the facility is not a lot.

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“Number one is that the facility is still not getting enough, according to him. And number two is that the portion they are selling to him in naira is still a little. So he still has to do most purchases in dollars. So the facility is saying that if the government cannot increase the crude they are giving to him in naira, the new dollar pricing template is what he will do. So those are the two issues.”

This movement has raised fresh concerns over the stability of petrol prices, with the refinery’s decision to price its products in dollars potentially exposing domestic fuel prices to movements in the foreign exchange market.

Already, this uncertainty over petrol prices has forced many marketers to halt fresh purchases, leading to the temporary closure of some filling stations, according to the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria.

The official said the Federal Government had continued to engage the refinery’s management in a bid to prevent the dispute from escalating. He, however, warned that the government could not allow any single player to hold the country to ransom by demanding restrictions on imports while the parties continued to disagree over crude supply and pricing.

“The government has been discussing this matter. He said he was going to do this (dollar sale of fuel). He said this two weeks ago. And the government was asking for patience. Let us keep engaging now. So now that the new dollar pricing template has been done, the government will still keep engaging,” the official said.

The official also argued that the Dangote refinery’s location within a free trade zone gave it considerable flexibility in determining how it conducted its commercial operations, including the currency in which it sold its products.

“Unfortunately, the facility is in a free trade zone, so the refinery is actually allowed to sell in any currency it wants to sell. The refinery is in a free trade zone. And there are so many taxes not paid,” he said.

“Yes, the refinery still pays, but there are a lot of taxes the refinery is excluded from, because it is in a free trade zone. Those are the benefits you get when you are in a free trade zone.”

FCCPC rejects dollar

However, the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission has said the naira remains Nigeria’s only lawful currency for domestic commercial transactions, amid reports that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery is considering pricing petroleum products in US dollars.

The Director of Corporate Affairs, FCCPC, Ondaje Ijagwu, stated this in a response to enquiries on Sunday. On the reported proposal to price petroleum products in dollars, Ijagwu said, “The commission’s position is clear. The Nigerian naira is the legal tender in Nigeria and remains the lawful currency for domestic commercial transactions.”

On what would be the government’s next step if an agreement is not reached, the top official said, “If there is no agreement and he does not want to listen, the next step will be to allow more imports to come in. It is not possible to hold anybody to ransom

“Cement remains a good case study. The government banned cement importation. Has the cement price gone down? No. This is clear. So, why will he bring it down? He already controls the market. He’s not going to bring it down. So, that’s it.”

The official said Nigeria had imported petrol for decades and could continue to do so if necessary to guarantee adequate supply and prevent a monopoly in the downstream market. “This country has been importing petrol for over 35 years. The world did not stop,” he said.

The warning comes amid a legal challenge by three major oil marketers, Matrix Energy Group, AA Rano Nigeria and AYM Shafa Holdings, over the continued issuance and renewal of licences for the importation of petroleum products.

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According to a report by African Intelligence, the companies are seeking an order of the Federal High Court in Abuja directing the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority to continue granting, issuing, extending, renewing or re-issuing licences, permits and authorisations for midstream and downstream operations relating to petroleum product imports.

The marketers argued that they had invested billions of dollars in storage, logistics, and distribution infrastructure and had played a major role in supplying petroleum products to Nigerians for decades.

Their legal action has further complicated the Federal Government’s attempt to balance the protection of domestic refining.

The government official said the legal action was significant because the government could not simply prevent marketers from importing products if domestic supply was insufficient or if the courts ordered regulators to continue issuing the relevant licences.

“Already, some people have gone to court to try to stop the government from banning the importation of petrol. I hope you are aware. So, in case the government wants to bend to Dangote’s will, some marketers have gone to court to get a court order banning the government from stopping imports,” he said.

The official added that the government could not simply sell all crude to domestic refiners in naira without considering the foreign exchange implications.

“So this is the issue. What’s our main source of foreign exchange? It’s still crude. And where is it coming from? Royalty and crude sales. So NNPC is the one that is bringing in these things. So if they then sell everything in naira, where is the dollar going to come from to do other things?” he asked.

The official said the refinery had previously been receiving a significant portion of its crude supply in naira, although the government had to balance the arrangement against its own foreign exchange requirements.

“The last time it was checked, the refinery was getting at least 35 per cent to 40 per cent of its crude in naira of what was being sold to him. Because where will the country then get the dollar from if everything is sold in dollars?” he said.

The official said the Federal Government’s attempt to prevent the refinery from adopting a dollar-based pricing model had therefore not fully resolved the underlying dispute.

“At the end of the day, what the government was trying to avoid is still the same thing that has happened. He had been threatening before it was done, but engagement continues,” he said.

Speaking further, the FCCPC also expressed concern that the recent decline in international crude oil prices had not been reflected proportionately in the prices of petrol sold to consumers.

According to the FCCPC director, “The FCCPC remains concerned that recent declines in international crude oil prices have not been reflected proportionately in retail petrol prices. As the commission stated in its 28 June public statement, pump prices increased rapidly when crude oil prices rose, yet the subsequent decline in international crude oil prices has not translated into corresponding reductions for consumers.”

Ijagwu said the commission’s concerns had prompted the Federal Government to convene a stakeholders’ meeting involving regulators, refiners, marketers and other participants in the petroleum industry.

Ijagwu added, “The commission stands by this position and expects that, within a reasonable period, the benefits of lower international crude oil prices will be reflected in corresponding reductions in pump prices where market conditions justify such adjustments.

“The FCCPC will continue to monitor developments closely and will not hesitate to take appropriate enforcement action where there is credible evidence of anti-competitive conduct, consumer exploitation or any other contravention of the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act.”

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