President Bola Tinubu’s administration has secured $11.40bn in loan approvals from the World Bank in just about three years, putting it on course to surpass the total amount approved under former President Muhammadu Buhari’s eight-year administration, an analysis of data obtained by The PUNCH from the World Bank has shown.
The analysis showed that the World Bank approved loans worth $11.40bn for Nigeria between June 2023 and June 2026, compared with $14.59bn approved during Buhari’s presidency from May 2015 to May 2023.
The latest figure means Tinubu’s administration has already secured about 78.2 per cent of the total World Bank financing approved during Buhari’s two terms in office and requires another $3.19bn in approvals to exceed that record.
The data further showed that World Bank loans approved under Tinubu have already surpassed those listed under Buhari’s first term by more than $5.8bn. According to the World Bank data, projects approved under Buhari’s first term amounted to about $5.56bn.
Using the figures contained in the World Bank database, Tinubu’s current approvals exceed the Buhari first-term total by about 105 per cent.
However, of the $11.4bn approved under Tinubu, only $2.32bn had been disbursed as of the latest update on the World Bank website, leaving $8.41bn available for disbursement. This represents a disbursement rate of about 20.3 per cent.
By comparison, projects approved during Buhari’s administration have recorded much higher implementation levels. Out of the $14.59bn approved during his presidency, $11.94bn had been disbursed, while $1.53bn remained available.
The figures translate to a disbursement rate of about 81.8 per cent, reflecting the fact that many of the projects have either been completed, are in repayment or are approaching completion.
The World Bank portfolio under Tinubu has been concentrated largely in economic reforms, education, healthcare, agriculture, energy, digital infrastructure, financial inclusion and social protection.
The single largest approval came in June 2024, when the World Bank approved a $2.25bn financing package comprising the $1.5bn Nigeria Reforms for Economic Stabilisation to Enable Transformation Development Policy Financing and the $750m Nigeria Accelerating Resource Mobilisation Reforms Programme-for-Results.
According to the World Bank, the financing was designed to support Nigeria’s economic reform programme, strengthen macroeconomic stability, improve domestic revenue mobilisation and protect poor and vulnerable households during the implementation of reforms.
The World Bank said the package was intended to support the Federal Government’s ongoing reforms, including exchange rate reforms, fiscal consolidation, and measures aimed at strengthening public finances.
The World Bank data showed that the RESET programme has been fully disbursed, while the ARMOR programme had recorded disbursements of $280.55m, leaving $469.45m available.
The reform package attracted public attention because it coincided with the implementation of major economic reforms, including the removal of the petrol subsidy and the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market, both of which contributed to sharp increases in inflation and the cost of living.
The World Bank has consistently maintained that the reforms are necessary to restore macroeconomic stability and place public finances on a more sustainable path, although several labour unions, civil society groups and opposition politicians have criticised the pace of the reforms and their impact on households.
Another major addition to Tinubu’s World Bank portfolio came on June 29, 2026, when the bank approved the Nigeria Actions for Investment and Jobs Acceleration programme. The programme consists of two facilities worth $500m and $750m respectively, bringing total financing under the initiative to $1.25bn.
Announcing the approval, the World Bank said the financing formed part of its new Country Partnership Framework for Nigeria covering 2026 to 2032. According to the bank, the framework aims to support private sector-led growth, improve job creation, expand energy access, strengthen digital infrastructure, and improve agricultural productivity.
Agriculture also accounts for a significant share of the approvals under Tinubu. In March 2026, the World Bank approved a $500m credit for the Nigeria Sustainable Agricultural Value-Chains for Growth project.
The bank said the project is expected to improve agricultural productivity, strengthen value chains, increase market access for smallholder farmers and create employment opportunities across participating states. The facility had yet to record any disbursement, according to the World Bank data.
In December 2024, the bank also approved three separate credits worth $357m, $57m and $86m for the Rural Access and Agricultural Marketing Project Scale-Up, bringing total financing under the programme to $500m. The facilities were still awaiting disbursement.
The power sector has also remained one of the largest recipients of World Bank financing under Tinubu. In June 2023, shortly after the inauguration of the administration, the World Bank approved $750m for the Power Sector Recovery Performance-Based Operation through separate facilities of $301m and $449m.
The World Bank data showed that the facilities had disbursed $28.10m and $41.24m, respectively. In December 2023, the bank approved another $750m for the Nigeria Distributed Access through Renewable Energy Scale-up Project. The project comprises three facilities worth $350m, $250m, and $150m.
The World Bank said the programme is expected to provide new or improved electricity access to about 17.5 million Nigerians through distributed renewable energy solutions. The data showed that only the $350m facility had recorded disbursement, amounting to $97.71m, while the remaining two facilities had yet to record any drawdown.
In September 2024, the World Bank approved another $500m for the Sustainable Power and Irrigation for Nigeria Project. According to the World Bank, the project is designed to improve dam safety, strengthen irrigation infrastructure, and increase hydropower generation in selected locations across the country.
The World Bank data showed that $33m had been disbursed under the project, leaving $467m available. Nigeria’s power sector has remained one of the most heavily financed sectors by the World Bank over the past decade. However, implementation challenges have also persisted.
The PUNCH earlier reported that the Federal Government and the World Bank agreed to cancel about $717m in undisbursed financing under the Power Sector Recovery Operation following changes in implementation arrangements and unmet programme conditions, including reforms linked to electricity tariffs and sector financing.
Education and healthcare also account for a substantial portion of Tinubu’s World Bank borrowing. In September 2023, the World Bank approved the $700m Adolescent Girls Initiative for Learning and Empowerment project. The project had recorded a disbursement of $148.35m, while $558.22m remained available.
The Nigeria for Women Programme Scale-Up Project, approved in June 2023, received $500m. The World Bank data showed that $109.62m had been disbursed, while $393.67m remained available.
The World Bank expanded its support for Nigeria’s human capital development in September 2024 with the approval of three major projects valued at $1.5bn. The projects comprised the $500m Nigeria Human Capital Opportunities for Prosperity and Equity Governance programme, the $500m Primary Healthcare Provision Strengthening Programme and the $500m Sustainable Power and Irrigation for Nigeria Project.
According to the World Bank, the HOPE programmes are expected to improve access to quality basic education and primary healthcare services while strengthening governance and accountability in the delivery of public services. An analysis of the World Bank data showed that implementation of the projects remains at an early stage.
The HOPE Governance project had recorded disbursement of $3m out of the approved $500m, leaving $497m available. The Primary Healthcare Provision Strengthening Programme had disbursed $75.35m, while $424.65m remained available. The Sustainable Power and Irrigation Project had drawn $33m, leaving $467m yet to be disbursed.
Combined, the three projects had received disbursements of $111.35m, representing about 7.4 per cent of the approved financing.
The World Bank also approved another package of projects in March 2025 covering education, community resilience and nutrition. The package included the $500m HOPE for Quality Basic Education for All project, the $500m Community Action for Resilience and Economic Stimulus Programme, and the $80m Accelerating Nutrition Results in Nigeria 2.0 project.
The financing was intended to improve education quality, support vulnerable households, and address malnutrition among women and children. The World Bank data showed that none of the projects had recorded any disbursement as of the latest update.
Financial inclusion and digital infrastructure also featured prominently in the Tinubu administration’s World Bank portfolio. In December 2025, the World Bank approved the Fostering Inclusive Finance for MSMEs in Nigeria project comprising a $400m International Bank for Reconstruction and Development facility and a $100m International Development Association credit.
The bank said the project is expected to expand access to finance for micro, small and medium enterprises, strengthen financial institutions and mobilise private capital. Neither component had recorded any disbursement.
In October 2025, the World Bank approved the $500m Building Resilient Digital Infrastructure for Growth project to improve broadband connectivity and digital infrastructure across Nigeria.
The bank said the project would help increase broadband penetration, improve digital public infrastructure and support digital inclusion. The project remained at the effective stage with no disbursement recorded.
The World Bank also approved $250m for the Health Security Programme in Western and Central Africa, Nigeria Phase II, in September 2025 to strengthen disease surveillance and emergency preparedness following lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic. The facility was listed as signed and had yet to record any disbursement.
A sectoral analysis of the Tinubu administration’s World Bank portfolio showed that economic reforms, power, agriculture, education, healthcare and social protection account for the bulk of the financing approved since June 2023.
By comparison, Buhari’s World Bank borrowing was spread across fiscal reforms, electricity, agriculture, social investment, education, health, erosion control, mining, water resources, livestock development, business reforms, and COVID-19 response.
An analysis of annual approval trends showed that Tinubu’s administration has averaged about $3.7bn in World Bank approvals per year since assuming office in May 2023. By comparison, Buhari’s administration averaged about $1.82bn annually over eight years.
The figures indicate that World Bank financing approvals have accelerated under the current administration, although implementation remains at an earlier stage than projects approved during the previous administration.
The PUNCH recently reported that Nigeria’s debt to the World Bank rose by $2.08bn in one year to $19.89bn as of December 31, 2025, according to an analysis of external debt stock data released by the Debt Management Office.
The figure represents an 11.7 per cent increase from the $17.81bn owed to the global lender as of December 31, 2024. The World Bank debt comprises loans from the International Development Association and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
The IDA provides concessional grants and loans to low-income countries, while the IBRD provides financial products and policy advice mainly to middle-income and creditworthy developing countries.
DMO data showed that Nigeria’s IDA debt rose from $16.56bn in 2024 to $18.51bn in 2025, an increase of $1.94bn or 11.73 per cent. IBRD exposure also increased from $1.24bn to $1.38bn, representing an increase of $141.84m or 11.41 per cent.
The increase means World Bank loans accounted for 38.36 per cent of Nigeria’s total external debt stock of $51.86bn as of the end of 2025.
Reacting to the rising World Bank commitments to Nigeria, Lagos-based economist Adewale Abimbola said loans from multilateral institutions such as the World Bank are largely concessionary, with interest rates typically below market levels and longer repayment tenors.
He noted that the critical question is not whether Nigeria should be borrowing, but whether the loans are structured and deployed effectively. “If it’s concessionary and tied to viable projects with medium-term revenue prospects, I don’t think it’s a bad idea,” Abimbola explained. “Borrowing isn’t bad; what matters is utilisation.”
He stressed that the economic impact of such loans depends on how well they are channelled into projects that can generate sustainable growth, strengthen revenue, and improve public services over time.
Development economist and CEO of CSA Advisory, Dr Aliyu Ilias, expressed strong reservations about Nigeria’s rising debt profile in light of the World Bank’s fresh commitments.
While acknowledging that borrowing is not inherently bad for an economy, he questioned the rationale for taking on more debt at a time when the government claims to have higher revenues.
According to him, the impact of the current borrowing spree is being felt in reduced public service delivery, particularly in capital expenditure, as debt servicing now consumes a significant portion of available revenue.
He warned that this crowding-out effect limits job creation, fuels inflation, and worsens Nigeria’s foreign-exchange imbalance, with the naira trading at historically low levels.
He argued that given the claimed revenue surpluses, the Tinubu administration should not have needed to borrow within its first two years in office, let alone at the scale currently being witnessed.
Economist and CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, said that borrowing should always be backed by sound economic reasoning and clear development priorities. Yusuf emphasised that the key issue is debt sustainability, which depends primarily on the country’s revenue capacity to service its obligations.
Without strong cash flow to meet repayment schedules, he warned, Nigeria risks falling into a vicious cycle of borrowing to service existing loans, thereby perpetuating fiscal vulnerability. He said it is essential that projects funded by loans directly support the economy’s capacity to repay.
According to him, Nigeria should be cautious with foreign loans due to the exchange rate risks they pose, noting that domestic debt is generally easier to manage. He stressed that a disciplined approach to debt sustainability will be crucial for Nigeria to avoid long-term fiscal distress.
Responding to an enquiry by The PUNCH recently on the delay in loan disbursements, the Senior External Affairs Officer at the World Bank, Mansir Nasir, noted that funds for projects financed by the institution were not disbursed at once but in instalments, depending on the nature of the project and financing instruments.
“Projects financed by the World Bank run for a certain time, which varies depending on the specific project. The total amount of the project is not disbursed as a one-off, but rather in instalments depending on the financing instruments—e.g., IPF or PforR—which require certain milestones for specific disbursement values.
“If you look at the portal, you will see the specific disbursement timelines and values,” Nasir added. He further stated that before a new project can begin disbursement, it must meet certain agreed conditions between the Federal Government and the World Bank.
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, recently faulted Nigerians, especially analysts and commentators, for criticising government borrowing without considering the purpose, cost and expected returns of such debt.
Oyedele said, “When analysts go on TV and join the populist view to accuse the government of borrowing, you are doing a disservice. The relevant question is never simply how much debt.
“It is always debt for what and at what cost, against what return, and repaid on what terms. A nation, a state, or a business that borrows to finance a productive asset generating returns above the cost of that capital is not behaving recklessly; it is behaving rationally.”
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