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India buys Nigerian crude as Dangote imports US oil

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Refineries in India are buying Nigerian crude while the country’s Dangote Petroleum Refinery is largely running on American oil.

In a twist that underscores the complexities of global oil trade, India’s state refiners are snapping up Nigerian crude oil while Africa’s largest refinery, located in Nigeria, is increasingly importing crude from the United States, a development that oil sector operators described as “oil trade irony” on Sunday.

Industry sources told Reuters that Indian Oil Corporation recently bought one million barrels of Nigeria’s Agbami crude for September delivery in a tender awarded to global trader Trafigura. The purchase is part of a broader sourcing spree that has seen Indian refiners secure millions of barrels from non-Russian sources.

Ironically, while Indian refiners are boosting purchases of Nigerian grades, the $20bn Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lagos is relying heavily on US imports to feed its processing units. The refinery imported an average of 10 million barrels in July, saying it was increasingly relying on the US for its feedstock despite the naira-for-crude deal with the Federal Government.

Reuters reported that Indian Oil Corp and Bharat Petroleum have bought a million barrels of non-Russian crude for delivery in September and October after the US pressured India to halt purchases from Russia.

Indian state refiners had been largely absent from the spot market since 2022, instead becoming one of the few purchasers of cheaper Russian crude after Russia invaded Ukraine. However, they paused Russian purchases in late July after pressure from US President Donald Trump.

Over two million barrels of crude oil were said to have been bought from Nigeria for September and October deliveries in India. India’s second biggest state refiner BPCL bought barrels of oil through negotiations for September arrival, a source familiar with the purchases said.

That included one million barrels of Angola Girassol, one million barrels of US Mars, three million barrels of Abu Dhabi Murban, and two million barrels of Nigerian oil, according to Reuters.

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Dangote imports US oil

Data from commodities analytics firm, Kpler, showed that in July, US barrels accounted for about 60 per cent of Dangote’s 590,000 barrels per day of crude intake, with Nigerian grades making up the remaining 40 per cent.

In July, the Dangote refinery’s crude imports surged to a record 590 kbd—driven largely by US barrels overtaking Nigerian supply for the first time—amid ongoing domestic sourcing challenges, Kpler reports. The refinery is currently operating at 85 per cent of its nameplate capacity with plans to upgrade to 700,000 barrels per day.

As crude imports into the Dangote refinery surged to 590,000 bpd in July, the highest monthly volume on record, Kpler noted that US crude made up a substantial 370,000bpd (60 per cent) of the total, while Nigerian grades accounted for just 220,000 bpd (40 per cent), primarily comprising Amenam, Bonny Light, and Escravos.

“While WTI has held a significant share in Dangote’s import slate since March, this is the first time US crude has overtaken Nigerian supply—a shift driven by several factors,” Kpler reported. It stated that WTI has been more competitively priced than certain domestic options, especially as US barrels struggled to find traction in Asia amid rising OPEC+ output and multi-month lows in Murban spot premiums in May.

At the same time, the Dangote refinery had earlier said that securing domestic crude for the refinery had remained an ongoing challenge. Dangote and other local refineries have decried the low supply of crude to their facilities in conformity with the Domestic Crude Supply Obligations.

Dangote’s crude inventories rose to 6.73 million barrels in July, reflecting a 2.5 Mbbls month-on-month increase, suggesting that a portion of the elevated import volumes has been directed into storage.

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Meanwhile, Nigeria’s indigenous oil firms are increasingly taking centre stage in the upstream sector, leveraging the withdrawal of international majors and improved stability in onshore operations. Crude and condensate supply held steady at 1.75 Mbd in July, lifting the three-month average to its highest level in over five years, driven by rising onshore output and fewer pipeline disruptions.

At Jones Creek, reduced pipeline outages reportedly supported higher flows to the Ugo Ocha terminal, with exports doubling to 65,000 bpd in recent months. Kpler stated that among key grades, CJ crude production reached its highest level of the year in June, reaching 55,000 bpd, quoting data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission. The grade, which is previously a regular feedstock for Dangote, reportedly had its recent cargoes shipped to Canada’s Point Tupper and re-exported to the US recently.

The refinery’s intake of domestic crude declined to 220,000 bpd in August, down from 275,000 bpd last month, coinciding with record-level imports from the US at 370,000 bpd. Despite its stated intention to prioritise Nigerian supply, Dangote’s current crude slate suggests a more flexible sourcing strategy, which will largely be based on commercial incentive.

The bulk of the refinery’s output consists of gasoline, primarily sold domestically, though some volumes have been exported to Oman and Ivory Coast—and jet fuel, destined for West Africa and Northwest Europe, according to Kpler.

Last month, the President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, said the refinery has made Nigeria a net exporter of refined products, saying, “From June beginning to July, we have exported about 1 million tonnes of PMS, within the last 50 days,” he said.

It was stated that with a gasoline yield of 46 per cent, the refinery’s expansion to 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) would increase potential gasoline output to 322,000 bpd, up from an initial 300,000 bpd.

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However, the platform expressed pessimism, stating that “expecting Dangote to run at full capacity on a sustained basis would be highly optimistic, given the likelihood of frequent mechanical issues and ongoing maintenance requirements. As such, we do not anticipate the refinery approaching full utilisation before Q4 2026.”

It disclosed that, in an effort to maximise gasoline yields, condensate naphtha arrived in early July, with Dangote importing around 22,000 tonnes per month (6,000 bpd) to feed its hydrotreater for gasoline production.

These naphtha imports, it was learnt, underscore “ongoing operational challenges at the refinery’s 204,000 bpd RFCC unit, which has been grappling with reactor and regenerator issues since January.”

Looking ahead, Kpler expects Nigeria’s crude and condensate supply to average around 1.65 mbd throughout the rest of the year—a stable level, with no significant new fields expected in the coming months, though still a marginal increase compared to H2 last year.

Nevertheless, it was added that activity among local producers continues to build, with significant gains possible from next year. “Companies like Seplat are working to boost output by restarting shut-in wells and launching new drilling campaigns across the former ExxonMobil blocks, according to their latest financial results.

“Infrastructure is also expanding: the Otakikpo terminal, developed by Green Energy, completed its first crude export in June aboard the Suezmax Lipari, becoming Nigeria’s first privately built onshore terminal in over five decades. Conoil has completed its first Obodo crude shipment, while Renaissance Africa Energy is preparing to scale up production following its acquisition of Shell’s onshore assets,” it was reported.

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Read how Nigerians tap savings, loans to buy Dangote refinery shares

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Some Nigerians seeking to invest in the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE Initial Public Offering have turned to personal savings, loans and proceeds from the sale of assets to raise funds to buy shares, Saturday PUNCH has learnt.

Findings by our correspondents revealed strong interest in the shares among prospective retail investors, some of whom said they expected the investment to yield substantial returns in the future.

While some respondents said they were dipping into savings or raising funds through other means, others said the prevailing economic hardship had made it difficult for them to participate in the offer.

The refinery opened its IPO on Monday, September 14, giving Nigerians an opportunity to own equity in the company.

The offer comprises 4.1 billion ordinary shares priced at N525 each, with the company targeting about N2.15tn to part-fund an expansion that would nearly double the refinery’s capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day.

The minimum subscription is 10 shares, costing N5,250.

Dangote Group Chief Executive Officer, Aliko Dangote, said the low entry threshold was deliberately set to allow ordinary workers, including drivers, cooks and domestic staff, to become shareholders, describing the offer as “the IPO for the people.”

The offer is expected to close on October 13.

Investors turn to savings, loans

A staff member of the Federal Ministry of Works, David Adelabu, described the shares as expensive for struggling civil servants but said he considered the offer an opportunity to become a shareholder in the refinery.

He said, “I have small shares in some companies, including Glo and MTN, but Dangote’s shares will be the highest I will be buying. It is on the high side, but I feel this is an opportunity to become a shareholder in Dangote.

“I understand that the dividends are not going to be immediate, but I don’t mind even if it will entail selling a plot of land I have in Metumbi here in Minna. I will gladly do so.”

A trader in Dutse, Jigawa State, Adamu Bala, said he planned to use savings from his business to buy the shares.

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“I will not sell my house. I will use a small profit from my shop to buy,” he said.

Similarly, a civil servant, Fatima Mannir, said women in her group had started raising money through contributions, known as adashe, to participate in the offer.

“We have started raising money through adashe,” she said.

A trader in Damaturu, Yobe State, Malam Musa Ibrahim, said he invested part of his business savings after learning about the offer.

“I am using part of the money I have saved from my business.

“I believe that if I can invest a small amount now, it may become useful to me in the future. But I am also being careful because business is not easy at the moment,” he said.

Another resident, Aisha Mohammed, said she raised money by cutting down on some household expenses.

“I did not borrow money to buy the shares. I have been saving little by little, and when I heard about the offer, I decided to use part of what I had saved,” she said.

A businessman, Abdullahi Yusuf, however, said he obtained financial assistance from a friend to increase his subscription.

“I wanted to buy more shares than what my savings could afford, so I discussed it with a friend who agreed to lend me some money.

“I know that borrowing money to invest carries risks, but I am hoping that the investment will perform well. I will repay the money from my business income,” he said.

A petty trader, Hauwa Lawan, said she sold some personal belongings she no longer used and added the proceeds to her savings to finance her purchase.

“I sold some things that I was no longer using and added the money to my savings,” she said.

A farmer, Mallam Abdullahi Adamu, said he sold farm produce to raise about N500,000 to invest in the shares.

In Kano State, an investor, Abdulmalik Ibrahim, said he bought 10 shares for N5,250 using personal funds.

Hardship keeps some investors away

While some Nigerians are finding ways to participate in the IPO, others said economic pressures had put the investment beyond their reach.

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A civil servant in Kogi State, Saliu Joseph, said he would have loved to invest but had just paid his children’s school fees.

“Right now, I don’t think I can afford to participate unless a miracle happens,” he said.

A retired permanent secretary in the state, Bola Boro, also said he would not participate because he could not afford the investment at the moment.

“As a retired civil servant, I cannot afford such an amount to invest in the offer. Even though I am a fan of investment through the stock market, which I have been doing for years, I don’t think it will be convenient for me to participate considering the time frame of just one month,” he said.

A civil servant, Kuta Abdulahi, said the financial demands of his children’s education had left him unable to participate in the share offer.

“I must tell you the truth, I know about the Dangote Refinery shares, but I cannot even think of it at this time. My children are just resuming a new term in school. Where will I get the money for their school fees before thinking of buying shares? Please, I have a lot on my head,” he said.

Similarly, a vulcaniser, Ahmed Alkali, said his income was barely enough to meet his family’s basic needs, making investment in shares difficult.

“With the kind of job I do, I am working from hand to mouth. So, how can I buy shares when I have not eaten?” he asked.

Experts warn against borrowing

Investment experts, however, cautioned Nigerians against taking loans, selling properties or committing all their savings to the IPO, warning that equity investments carry risks.

Speaking with Saturday PUNCH, the Group Managing Director of Lancelot Group, Adebayo Adeleke, urged prospective investors to understand the risks associated with the capital market before committing their funds to the IPO.

Adeleke, who is also a former Secretary of the Independent Shareholders Association of Nigeria, said capital market investments should be made with funds that investors could afford to leave untouched for the long term, noting that equities were unsuitable for people struggling to meet immediate financial needs.

He said, “When you buy shares, you are buying a portion of the ownership of the business. Investment takes a lot of time to pass through gestation, to stability, to profitability. And you cannot, with any degree of certainty, predict when the company is going to turn the corner and begin to produce profits.

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“So, investment money is not the money you are likely to need in the next two months, three months, six months, even one year. If you cannot part with your money for a minimum of three to five years, the capital market is not the place to invest.”

Adeleke, however, described the IPO as a strategic investment, citing the refinery’s scale and demand for its products.

Also speaking, the Head of Financial Institutions Ratings at Agusto & Co., Ayokunle Olubunmi, urged Nigerians to consider the risks associated with the investment and avoid committing all their savings to the offer.

He said, “There are plenty of risks to this business. It’s not risk-free. Things can get worse for the business. Valuation is based on expectations of what will happen in the future. Things might not go as planned. And, like we all know, equity is a risky business.”

Olubunmi particularly cautioned prospective investors against selling property or using up all their savings to invest in the offer.

He advised them to invest only a portion of their funds and diversify their portfolios.

The expert also advised those considering taking loans to buy the shares to have a separate and reliable repayment plan rather than depending on returns from the investment.

The Emir of Kano, Muhammadu Sanusi II, had earlier warned prospective investors against using their children’s school fees or selling their homes to invest in the shares.

Sanusi, who gave the warning on Thursday while speaking at the company’s roadshow in Kano, urged prospective investors to invest only money they could afford to set aside for some time, suggesting amounts such as N10,000, N20,000 or N30,000.

Source: punchng.com

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ARE NIGERIANS BUILDING CHINA’S ECONOMY WHILE NEGLECTING THEIR OWN?

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While other nations are busy producing, manufacturing and exporting, Nigeria must ask itself a difficult question: Are we building our own economy, or simply creating a bigger market for other countries?

Nigeria has a huge population, abundant natural resources and a massive consumer market. Yet the country continues to depend heavily on imported finished products—from electronics and clothing to machinery, household goods and other consumer items.

The issue is not simply about Chinese businesses or businesses from any other foreign country operating in Nigeria. Foreign investment can bring capital, technology, jobs and expertise.

The bigger issue is whether **Nigerian businesses are being given the opportunity and support to manufacture competitively at home.

Instead of remaining primarily a consumer of finished products, Nigeria needs to strengthen its manufacturing sector and move further up the value chain.

Nigeria needs to produce, not just consume.

A stronger manufacturing economy could help Nigeria:

* Create more jobs for Nigerians
* Add value to locally available raw materials
* Develop industrial skills and technology
* Reduce excessive dependence on imported finished goods
* Build competitive Nigerian companies
* Increase the country’s ability to export

The goal should not be to drive legitimate foreign businesses out of Nigeria. The goal should be to build an economy where **Nigerian manufacturers can compete, grow and eventually take Nigerian-made products to markets around the world.

The question Nigerians should be asking is simple:

**Why should Nigeria remain one of the world’s biggest markets for finished products when we have the potential to manufacture many of them ourselves?

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🇳🇬 **Nigeria must move from being predominantly a consumer nation to becoming a stronger producer, manufacturer and exporter.

What do you think?

Which products should Nigeria prioritize for local manufacturing instead of relying heavily on imports?

Share your thoughts in the comments.

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ICRC defends toll pricing on highways

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The Infrastructure Concession Regulatory Commission has defended the toll pricing structure under the Highway Development and Management Initiative, saying charges are evaluated against the quality and benefits of the upgraded roads.

In a statement made available to PUNCH Online on Thursday, the Director-General, Dr. Jobson Ewalefoh, cited the 227-kilometre Akwanga–Makurdi road corridor as an example.

He said the route has four toll gates, and motorists pay as they travel along it.

He argued that toll payments should be viewed against the previous costs imposed by the poor condition of the road, including lost man-hours, vehicle damage and accident risks.

Feedback from road users, he said, shows many motorists are willing to pay tolls where they see clear improvements in road quality.

Some drivers have expressed support for similar arrangements on other major corridors if the roads are upgraded to the same standard.

“That, to me, is the beauty of a well-structured PPP,” Ewalefoh said.

He explained that negotiators carefully consider toll pricing to keep charges fair. A portion of the revenue is set aside specifically for road maintenance. Under the concession agreements, the government does not bear additional maintenance costs for the duration of the contract.

The government must repair potholes within 48 hours, and it funds major routine repairs from the dedicated toll revenue.

Source: punchng.com

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