The Federal Government has unveiled a new national housing strategy anchored on land reform, urban renewal and public-private partnerships to address Nigeria’s growing housing deficit.

The Minister of Housing and Urban Development, Ahmed Dangiwa, disclosed this on Monday in Ilorin during the 14th National Council on Lands, Housing and Urban Development meeting.

The theme of the 2025 council meeting is “Achieving Housing Delivery and Sustainable Cities through Effective Land Management, Urban Renewal, Promotion of Local Building Materials, and Public–Private Partnerships in Nigeria.”

Speaking through the Director of Planning, Research and Statistics in the ministry, Alhaji Mukhtar Ilyasu, Dangiwa said Nigeria’s housing deficit, estimated in the tens of millions, remains one of the country’s most pressing socio-economic challenges.

He attributed the housing crisis to rapid urbanisation, population growth, rising construction costs and weak land administration systems.

According to him, “The newly introduced policy direction places effective land administration at the centre of housing delivery, while adopting urban renewal as a strategic tool for rebuilding Nigerian cities.

“The new framework positions private sector investment as the main driver of mass housing development across the country,” the minister said.

Dangiwa added that the policy would guide housing delivery, land administration and urban development planning in the coming years, noting that land management remains the foundation for expanding access to affordable housing nationwide.

He explained that urban renewal and regeneration have now been adopted as national policy tools to modernise cities, address uncontrolled urban growth, and respond to population pressure and climate-related challenges.

The minister further disclosed that the Federal Government is prioritising the large-scale adoption of locally sourced building materials as a cost-reduction strategy aimed at making housing more affordable while boosting local industries.

According to him, public-private partnerships will serve as the major engine for housing and urban infrastructure delivery, with government providing policy support, land governance reforms and investment-friendly frameworks to attract private capital.

“The Federal Government is strengthening national land governance frameworks to remove longstanding bottlenecks that have slowed housing development and promote inclusive urban growth,” he said.

Dangiwa also revealed that innovative housing finance and investment models are being introduced to unlock long-term funding for real estate development and bridge the housing gap.

He stressed that federal and state governments are being aligned under a unified housing and urban development agenda to ensure coordinated implementation and measurable outcomes.

Earlier, the Kwara State Commissioner for Urban and Housing Development, Dr. Olusegun Ogunsola, said the AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq-led administration has taken unprecedented steps in the past six years to address longstanding challenges in land and urban development.

Ogunsola said the state had embarked on policy reforms and sustained investments to tackle unregulated urban growth, decaying infrastructure and poor municipal services.

He cited the restructuring of the Kwara Geographic Information Services (KWAGIS) as a major intervention aimed at making land administration more efficient and transparent.

“The 20,000-hectare Kwara Smart City project is another bold response to the chaotic growth of Ilorin. It is designed to position the state for future development by leveraging its serene environment, vast land resources and private capital,” he said.

According to him, the Ilorin master plan has been reviewed for the first time in decades, reversing years of uncoordinated urban expansion.

“Our capital city, which once looked like an expanding slum, is gradually being transformed. Urban renewal efforts are ongoing, and the results are becoming evident,” Ogunsola added.

He said improvements in road infrastructure, waste management, water supply and intra-city transportation are already having a positive impact on residents and improving the overall livability of urban centres across the state.

Nigerians continued to lean heavily on cash withdrawals despite higher automated teller machine charges introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria, as the value of ATM transactions jumped to N36.34tn in the first half of 2025, reinforcing the resilience of cash usage in the economy.

Data from the CBN quarterly statistical bulletin show that ATM withdrawals between January and June 2025 amounted to N36.34tn, nearly tripling the N12.21tn recorded in the corresponding period of 2024.

This represents an increase of N24.13tn, equivalent to a 197.66 per cent year on year rise, even as regulators moved to discourage excessive cash usage through revised fees and tightening monetary policy.

According to the data on the transaction volumes, Nigerians carried out 858.80 million ATM withdrawals in the first six months of 2025, compared with 496.47 million transactions in the same period of 2024. The increase of 362.34 million transactions represents a growth rate of 72.98 per cent, indicating that higher charges did little to dampen demand for cash.

The sharp rise comes against the backdrop of the CBN’s revised ATM fee regime, which took effect in March 2025. Under the new framework, customers using another bank’s ATM now pay N100 per N20,000 withdrawn, with additional surcharges of up to N500 per N20,000 on offsite ATMs such as those located in malls, fuel stations, and airports.

The removal of the previous allowance of three free monthly withdrawals on other banks’ ATMs further increased the cost of accessing cash. The apex bank attributed the review to rising costs and the need to enhance efficiency in ATM operations.

The circular read, “In response to rising costs and the need to improve efficiency of Automated Teller Machine (ATM) services in the banking industry, the Central Bank of Nigeria has reviewed the ATM transaction fees prescribed in Section 10.7 of the extant CBN Guide to Charges by Banks, Other Financial and Non-Bank Financial Institutions, 2020 (the Guide).

“This review is expected to accelerate the deployment of ATMs and ensure that appropriate charges are applied by financial institutions to consumers of the service. Accordingly, banks and other financial institutions are advised to apply the following fees with effect from March 1, 2025.”

Despite these changes, quarterly data show that ATM usage accelerated markedly in 2025. In the first quarter, ATM withdrawals totalled N15.97tn, compared with N5.46tn in the first quarter of 2024. This reflects an increase of N10.52tn, or about 192.9 per cent.

Transaction volumes in the quarter rose from 210.66 million to 411.42 million, an increase of 200.76 million transactions, equivalent to roughly 95.3 per cent growth.

The momentum strengthened further in the second quarter. Between April and June 2025, Nigerians withdrew N20.36tn from ATMs, more than three times the N6.75tn recorded in the second quarter of 2024. The increase of N13.61tn represents a growth of about 201.7 per cent.

Volumes also rose from 285.81 million transactions in the second quarter of 2024 to 447.39 million in the same period of 2025, an increase of 161.57 million transactions or about 56.5 per cent. A closer look at the monthly figures highlights how consistently ATM usage expanded throughout the six-month period.

In January 2025, ATM withdrawals stood at N4.81tn, compared with N2.15tn in January 2024. Transaction volumes more than doubled, rising from 69.62 million to 147.24 million, a year-on-year increase of about 111.5 per cent.

February saw withdrawals rise to N5.40tn, up from N1.72tn a year earlier, representing growth of about 215 per cent. Transaction volumes climbed from 73.16 million to 134.59 million, an increase of roughly 84 per cent.

In March, ATM withdrawals reached N5.76tn, compared with N1.60tn in March 2024, translating to a growth of about 261 per cent, while volumes increased by about 91 per cent to 129.59 million transactions.

The second quarter sustained the upward trend. In April 2025, withdrawals rose to N6.38tn from N1.81tn in April 2024, an increase of about 252 per cent, with transaction volumes growing by roughly 77 per cent.

May recorded the highest monthly withdrawal value in the period at N7.44tn, up from N2.49tn a year earlier, representing a growth of about 199 per cent. Volumes also increased from 92.97 million to 160.10 million transactions, a rise of about 72 per cent.

In June, ATM withdrawals eased slightly to N6.55tn but still far exceeded the N2.45tn recorded in June 2024. The year-on-year increase of about 167 per cent was accompanied by a rise in transaction volumes from 113.17 million to 146.27 million, representing growth of about 29 per cent.

The persistence of high ATM usage contrasts with the steady expansion of point-of-sale transactions, which continue to dominate in absolute terms. POS transaction values rose from N85.91tn in the first half of 2024 to N147.20tn in the first half of 2025, while volumes increased from 6.40 billion to 7.72 billion transactions.

However, the pace of growth in ATM withdrawals outstripped that of POS channels, highlighting the enduring role of cash in daily economic activity.

In a FAQ document published by the apex bank on its website, which provides further information on the CBN’s directive on ATM withdrawal fees, the apex bank clarified that financial institutions are not permitted to charge more than the prescribed fees, although banks may reduce charges depending on their business strategy.

Any bank found in violation of the directive, including compelling customers to withdraw less than N20,000 per transaction despite sufficient funds in their account, will be sanctioned accordingly.

To minimise transaction fees, the CBN has advised customers to prioritise withdrawals from their bank’s own ATMs. It also encouraged Nigerians to explore alternative payment methods such as mobile banking applications, POS transactions, and electronic transfers to reduce reliance on cash withdrawals.

A FinTech Executive and Techpreneur, Tope Dare, earlier warned that the CBN’s revised ATM withdrawal fees, set to take effect on March 1, 2025, will hurt low-income Nigerians while benefiting wealthier individuals.

“This policy ultimately favours those who can afford to withdraw larger sums, while the average Nigerian, who withdraws in smaller amounts, bears the brunt. For many low-income earners and small business owners, withdrawing N5,000 or N10,000 at a time is a daily necessity. Now, they face unfair charges that wealthier Nigerians can easily avoid,” he said.

Also, consumer rights group Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project took legal action against the CBN, calling the policy “unfair, unreasonable, and unjust.” SERAP argued that the revised fees violate sections of the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act, which aims to prevent exploitation and ensure fair market practices.

In a statement signed by the TUC President, Festus Osifo, and Secretary-General, Nuhu Toro, the union urged all well-meaning Nigerians to reject what it described as an exploitative policy and demand its immediate reversal.

“Our attention has been drawn to a circular from the CBN announcing an increase in ATM transaction fees, effective March 1, 2025. We say unequivocally: enough is enough. The Nigerian workers and the general public have endured relentless economic hardship under this administration.

“Every day brings a new burden—higher taxes, rising electricity tariffs, exorbitant call and data charges, and now, increased ATM fees. This government has failed to cushion the effects of its harsh economic policies, and the patience of Nigerians is wearing thin.”

However, the Chairman of the Bank Customers Association of Nigeria, Dr. Uju Ogubunka, said the increase was not such a bad idea, given the state of the economy, but expressed concerns about the rate of increase.

He said, “It should have been expected. Other places have increased their fees. The only thing one can talk about is the extent of the increase. Electricity, telephones, and even the open market have recorded increases in prices. The issue should not be the increase but the extent of it. Is it reasonable? Is it affordable at this point in time?

“It is not only banking services that are increasing fees. If you ask me, I will say let’s move on. Someday, these things will adjust themselves.”

Also in October 2025, the CBN directed Deposit Money Banks and other financial institutions to refund customers for failed ATM transactions within 48 hours, in a sweeping reform aimed at protecting consumers and restoring confidence in the banking system.

According to the apex bank, these measures respond to widespread frustration over delayed refunds and poor customer service and form part of a broader effort to enhance consumer protection, improve reliability, and modernise Nigeria’s payment infrastructure in line with global standards.

The guidelines also overhauled ATM operations nationwide. Banks and card issuers are now required to deploy at least one ATM for every 5,000 active cards, with phased targets of 30 per cent compliance in 2026, 60 per cent in 2027, and full compliance by 2028. Any future deployment, relocation, or decommissioning of ATMs must receive prior approval from the CBN.

As ATMs become more efficient, The PUNCH observed an increase in cash outside banks. The PUNCH earlier reported that Nigerians withdrew a net N264.48bn from the banking system in November 2025, pushing the total cash held outside banks to N4.91tn, according to the CBN’s latest money and credit statistics data.

This represented a sharp month-on-month rise from N4.65tn recorded in October 2025, highlighting the continued preference for physical cash in daily transactions despite efforts to deepen electronic payment channels.

The data showed that currency in circulation as a whole also increased in November 2025, rising to N5.26tn from N5.06tn in October. This means the share of total currency circulating outside the banking sector climbed to about 93.34 per cent in November from 91.87 per cent in October.

The growing preference for physical cash raises several macroeconomic concerns. High out-of-bank cash weakens monetary control, reduces deposit mobilisation, creates liquidity constraints for banks, and encourages informal transactions that escape regulatory visibility.

It also complicates inflation targeting, as large cash holdings outside the banking system blunt the effectiveness of policy. The sharp rise in currency outside banks comes at a time when the CBN is focused on tightening liquidity to curb inflation.

Petrol importation remained the dominant source of fuel consumed in Nigeria in 2025, accounting for 62.47 per cent of the country’s total Premium Motor Spirit consumption.

This trend persisted despite the commencement of operations, steady ramp-up in production and distribution of petrol by domestic refineries, notably the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, alongside state-owned refineries and several modular facilities, as revealed in the latest midstream and downstream sector factsheet released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority.

According to the newly released NMDPRA factsheet on the state of the midstream and downstream petroleum sector, as analysed by our correspondent on Sunday, total national petrol consumption by Nigerians stood at approximately 18.97 billion litres in 2025, with oil marketing companies accounting for 11.85 billion litres through imports, highlighting the market’s continued dependence on foreign supply.

This means that nearly two-thirds of petrol consumed by Nigerians in 2025 was sourced from imports, while domestic refineries contributed about 7.54 billion litres, representing 37.53 per cent of total consumption, the regulator stated.

These totals were derived by applying the daily average consumption to the number of days in each month. The data, which are based on volumes trucked into the domestic market, underscore Nigeria’s continued dependence on fuel imports, even as the Dangote refinery, currently the country’s only operational large-scale refinery, ramped up supply during the year.

Meanwhile, the volume of petrol imports is expected to decline significantly in 2026 if the Federal Government proceeds with the planned implementation of a 15 per cent import tariff on Premium Motor Spirit, slated to take effect in the first quarter of 2025, in line with a policy memo approved by President Bola Tinubu.

For decades, Nigeria, Africa’s largest crude oil producer, relied almost entirely on imported petrol following the prolonged underperformance of its state-owned refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna. This dependence deepened after the refineries became largely dormant, forcing the country to meet domestic demand through imports financed with scarce foreign exchange and, for years, supported by a costly petrol subsidy regime.

The structure of the market began to shift in late 2024 with the commencement of operations at the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery, widely regarded as a potential turning point for Nigeria’s downstream sector. The refinery, alongside smaller modular refineries and limited output from state-owned facilities, was expected to significantly cut import volumes, improve energy security, and stabilise fuel supply across the country.

However, regulatory data from the regulatory Authority show that while domestic refining and distribution improved steadily in 2025, imports remained dominant. The NMDPRA attributes this to factors including the gradual ramp-up of refining operations, crude supply arrangements, logistics constraints, and demand fluctuations following the full deregulation of petrol pricing.

2025 represents the first full year of large-scale domestic Premium Motor Spirit supply, limiting year-on-year comparisons, particularly as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery only commenced petrol distribution in the final quarter of 2024.

Regulatory data showed that between October and December 2024, total petrol consumption stood at 4.77 billion litres, out of which imports accounted for 3.61 billion litres, while domestic refineries supplied about 1.17 billion litres.

Against this backdrop, the latest midstream and downstream factsheet provides one of the clearest regulatory snapshots yet of Nigeria’s petrol market in a post-subsidy environment, highlighting both the gains made in domestic supply and the structural challenges that continue to sustain the country’s reliance on imported fuel.

A breakdown of the factsheet showed that Dangote refinery accounted for virtually all domestic PMS supply in 2025, supplying an average of between 17 million and 32 million litres per day, depending on the month, and a total of 7.534.9 billion litres for the entire year.

Based on its supply framework with the regulator and the Federal Government, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery was expected to deliver about 600 million litres of petrol monthly, translating to an annual benchmark of 7.2 billion litres.

However, NMDPRA data showed that the refinery supplied 7.54 billion litres in 2025, representing a shortfall of about 336 million litres, or roughly 4.7 per cent below the annual target, despite improved output towards the end of the year.

In December 2025, domestic supply rose sharply to 32 million litres per day, the highest monthly average for the year, while total domestic deliveries reached 992 million litres, signalling gradual stabilisation of operations.

The factsheet showed that total petrol consumption fluctuated significantly throughout the year, rising from 1.60 billion litres in January to 1.97 billion litres in December, reflecting seasonal demand, logistics dynamics, and pricing conditions.

A month-on-month breakdown showed that Nigeria’s petrol consumption showed wide fluctuations throughout 2025, rising from 1.60 billion litres in January to 1.97 billion litres in December, representing an overall increase of about 23.7 per cent over the year.

Total consumption declined sharply by 11.6 per cent, from 1.60 billion litres in January to 1.41 billion litres in February, before rebounding by 11.8 per cent in March to 1.58 billion litres. Demand rose further in April to 1.66 billion litres, a 5.0 per cent increase, and peaked in May at 1.69 billion litres, up 1.8 per cent.

This was followed by a steep 14.6 per cent drop in June to 1.44 billion litres. Consumption recovered modestly in July (1.46 billion litres, up 1.6 per cent) and August (1.50 billion litres, up 2.5 per cent), before falling to its lowest level of the year in September at 1.31 billion litres, a 12.4 per cent decline.

Demand then surged by 33.8 per cent in October to 1.76 billion litres, dipped by 9.7 per cent in November to 1.59 billion litres, and climbed strongly by 24.4 per cent in December to 1.97 billion litres, the highest monthly level recorded in 2025.

Petrol imports by oil marketing companies and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited tracked these consumption movements and remained the dominant source of supply throughout the year.

Imports rose from 765.7 million litres in January to 770 million litres in February, an increase of 0.6 per cent, before jumping by 15.5 per cent in March to 889.7 million litres. Volumes dipped slightly by 3.2 per cent in April to 861 million litres, but surged sharply in May to 1.20 billion litres, representing a 39 per cent increase and accounting for about 71 per cent of total consumption for the month.

Imports declined by 18.3 per cent in June to 978 million litres, rose again by 14.4 per cent in July to 1.12 billion litres, and fell by 26.9 per cent in August to 818.4 million litres. September imports dropped further by 16.3 per cent to 685.1 million litres, before climbing by 30.8 per cent in October to 895.9 million litres.

November recorded a sharp spike to 1.56 billion litres, a 74.4 per cent increase, making imports equivalent to almost 98 per cent of total consumption that month. Imports eased in December to 1.31 billion litres, down 16.3 per cent, but still represented about two-thirds of monthly demand.

Similarly, domestic refinery supply, largely from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, showed a gradual but uneven improvement over the year. Supply rose from 592.1 million litres in January to 694.4 million litres in February, an increase of 17.3 per cent, and edged up further to 709.9 million litres in March, up 2.2 per cent. Output declined in April by 9.1 per cent to 645 million litres, and fell further in May by 11.1 per cent to 573.5 million litres.

The downward trend continued in June and July, with supply dropping to 543 million litres (down 5.3 per cent) and 511.5 million litres (down 5.8 per cent), respectively. Domestic supply rebounded in August by 20.0 per cent to 613.8 million litres, dipped slightly in September by 11.1 per cent to 545.6 million litres, and eased further in October to 530.1 million litres, down 2.8 per cent.

Output improved again in November to 585 million litres, a 10.4 per cent increase, before surging sharply in December to 992 million litres, representing a 69.6 per cent month-on-month rise and the strongest domestic supply performance of the year.

A further breakdown showed that in January, imports accounted for about 48 per cent of daily petrol consumption, while domestic refineries supplied around 37 per cent. Import dependence widened significantly in May, with marketers meeting about 71 per cent of daily demand, while domestic refineries contributed just 34 per cent. However, by December, domestic supply rose to about 50 per cent of daily consumption, narrowing the gap with imports, which accounted for roughly 66 per cent, reflecting the highest level of domestic participation recorded in 2025.

Imports consistently exceeded domestic supply in most months. In May, for instance, marketers imported 1.20 billion litres, representing about 71 per cent of total consumption for that month, while domestic refineries supplied just 573.5 million litres.

In contrast, December recorded the narrowest gap, with imports of 1.31 billion litres against the domestic supply of 992 million litres, as Dangote ramped up output and daily consumption rose to 63.7 million litres.

A further breakdown of the data showed that in January 2025, Nigeria recorded a daily average petrol consumption of 51.5 million litres, translating to 1.60 billion litres for the month. Of this volume, petrol importing marketers supplied an average of 24.7 million litres per day, amounting to 765.7 million litres. In comparison, domestic refineries delivered an average of 19.1 million litres daily, or 592.1 million litres in total.

In February, daily average consumption moderated to 50.4 million litres, with total monthly demand of 1.41 billion litres. Imports accounted for an average of 27.5 million litres per day, or 770 million litres, while domestic refineries supplied 24.8 million litres daily, amounting to 694.4 million litres.

For March, average daily consumption rose slightly to 50.9 million litres, bringing total demand to 1.58 billion litres. Petrol imports averaged 28.7 million litres per day, totalling 889.7 million litres, while domestic refineries supplied 22.9 million litres daily, or 709.9 million litres for the month.

In April, consumption increased further to a daily average of 55.2 million litres, with total demand of 1.66 billion litres. Importers supplied 28.7 million litres per day, amounting to 861 million litres, while domestic refinery output averaged 21.5 million litres daily, totalling 645 million litres.

Data for May showed average daily consumption of 54.4 million litres, translating to 1.69 billion litres for the month. Imports rose sharply to an average of 38.6 million litres per day, or 1.20 billion litres, while domestic refinery supply declined to 18.5 million litres daily, amounting to 573.5 million litres.

In June, daily average consumption fell to 48.0 million litres, with total demand of 1.44 billion litres. Petrol imports averaged 32.6 million litres per day, totalling 978 million litres, while domestic refineries supplied 18.1 million litres daily, or 543 million litres.

For July, average daily consumption declined slightly to 47.2 million litres, bringing monthly demand to 1.46 billion litres. Importers supplied 36.1 million litres per day, amounting to 1.12 billion litres, while domestic refineries delivered 16.5 million litres daily, totalling 511.5 million litres.

In August, daily consumption improved to 48.4 million litres, with a total demand of 1.50 billion litres. Imports averaged 26.4 million litres per day, or 818.4 million litres, while domestic refineries supplied 19.8 million litres daily, amounting to 613.8 million litres.

September recorded the lowest consumption levels of the year, with daily average demand at 43.8 million litres and total consumption of 1.31 billion litres. Import volumes averaged 22.1 million litres per day, totalling 685.1 million litres, while domestic refinery supply stood at 17.6 million litres daily, or 545.6 million litres.

In October, consumption rebounded sharply to a daily average of 56.7 million litres, translating to 1.76 billion litres for the month. Imports averaged 28.9 million litres per day, amounting to 895.9 million litres, while domestic refineries supplied 17.1 million litres daily, totalling 545.6 million litres.

For November, average daily consumption eased to 52.9 million litres, with total demand of 1.59 billion litres. Importing marketers supplied an average of 52.1 million litres per day, totalling 1.56 billion litres, while domestic refinery output averaged 19.5 million litres daily, amounting to 585 million litres.

In December, petrol consumption surged to its highest level of the year, averaging 63.7 million litres per day and reaching 1.97 billion litres in total. Imports accounted for an average of 42.2 million litres per day, or 1.31 billion litres, while domestic refineries recorded their strongest performance of the year, supplying an average of 32.0 million litres daily, totalling 992 million litres.

Since the Dangote Petroleum Refinery began phased commercial operations in late 2024, its officials and some industry stakeholders have repeatedly asserted that the facility has the capacity to satisfy Nigeria’s petrol needs and reduce, if not eliminate, the need for imports.

Built with an ambitious 650,000‑barrel‑per‑day capacity, the plant has been positioned by its backers as a potential game‑changer for Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector

In a statement outlining the refinery’s production profile, Anthony Chiejina, Group Chief Branding and Communications Officer of Dangote Industries Limited, said the plant was already producing above current national demand. He stated:

“Our refinery is currently loading over 45 million litres of PMS and 25 million litres of diesel daily, which exceeds Nigeria’s demand.”

Chiejina added that the refinery’s output was supporting nationwide supply stability and reducing dependency on imported products, with improved local production helping to moderate foreign exchange outflows and strengthen the naira.

Recently, the National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, revealed that marketers had been sourcing all their petrol supplies from Dangote and that “nobody is importing now,” even during high‑demand periods such as the Christmas season. He said:

“Well, since Dangote has reduced his price, and we have not complained of a shortage of products. There is no importation. So all the supplies we are getting now are from Dangote.”

Also, in earlier remarks reported in 2025, the Dangote group chairman, Aliko Dangote, asserted that the refinery had sufficient refined products in storage to meet domestic needs, saying:

“Right now, we have more than half a billion litres in storage. The refinery is producing enough refined products, gasoline, diesel, and kerosene to meet all of Nigeria’s needs.”

However, these claims remain contested. While some marketers and refinery officials describe importation as unnecessary under current supply arrangements, others note that domestic refining capacity has not yet consistently matched national consumption, and that imports continue to play a role in bridging supply gaps.

Commenting in an earlier report, renowned energy economist Professor Wumi Iledare, noted that Nigeria’s reliance on imported petrol has declined but has not been eliminated. He also warned against claims that fuel importation has ended following increased domestic supply from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

In a personal note titled “Dangote Refinery, Petrol Imports, and Market Reality,” Iledare said recent assertions that Nigeria no longer imports petrol reflect “understandable optimism” but overstate the economic reality of the downstream oil market.

“Recent claims that petrol importation into Nigeria has ended because Dangote Refinery now meets domestic demand reflect understandable optimism, but they overstate economic reality.

Dangote Refinery has significantly improved domestic supply conditions and reduced Nigeria’s marginal reliance on imported petrol. However, neither Dangote Refinery nor petroleum marketers determine national supply outcomes,” he said.

Iledare, who also serves as Executive Director of the Emmanuel Egbogah Foundation, Abuja, acknowledged that the Dangote Refinery has significantly improved domestic supply conditions and reduced Nigeria’s marginal dependence on imported petrol.

However, he stressed that neither the refinery nor the petroleum marketers determines national supply outcomes. According to him, Nigeria’s downstream petrol market operates within an oligopolistic, import-parity–anchored framework, where prices and supply stability are shaped by the option to import, rather than the physical presence of imported cargoes.

“Nigeria’s downstream petrol market operates within an oligopolistic, import-parity–anchored framework, where prices and supply stability are disciplined by the option to import, not merely the act of importing.

Even when no petrol cargoes are landing, the credible threat of imports remains the market anchor. Importation also continues to serve as a risk-management tool for stock security, demand surges, logistics disruptions, and refinery operational risks,” Iledare said, adding that importation continues to function as a risk-management tool for stock security, demand surges, logistics disruptions, and refinery operational risks.

The energy economist further noted that the Petroleum Industry Act entrenches liberalisation and competition in the downstream sector, leaving no room for discretionary declarations that petrol imports have ended.

“The PIA does not permit discretionary declarations that imports have ended. Sustainable price stability and energy security arise from market discipline, infrastructure efficiency, foreign exchange liquidity, and regulatory credibility, not announcements,” he said.

Iledare argued that the appropriate policy narrative should focus on reduced marginal import dependence, rather than import elimination, warning that imprecise language could undermine policy credibility.

“The correct policy framing, therefore, is reduced marginal import dependence, not import elimination. Precision in language matters because credibility in energy policy is built on economic fundamentals, not celebratory headlines,” he added.

In his expert opinion, the Chief Executive Officer of petroleumprice.ng, Jeremiah Olatide, said the new data indicates that Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity has grown significantly over the past three years, rising from less than five per cent in 2022 to about 40 per cent in 2025.

Olatide, who disclosed this in a telephone conversation on Sunday, described the development as a major milestone in the country’s long-standing quest to reduce dependence on imported petroleum products.

“In 2022, local refining was less than five per cent. But three years later, it has increased to around 40 per cent according to NMDPRA. I think that is good, significant, and a big milestone,” Olatide said.

He explained that while the progress was commendable, Nigeria must push further to achieve meaningful macroeconomic stability. According to him, domestic refining must account for at least 70 per cent of national fuel consumption, with imports limited to 30 per cent.

“Local refining needs to be 70 per cent while import takes 30 per cent. That is the point where this would have direct influence on our economy, create more jobs, stabilise our naira, and deliver other benefits,” he stated.

Olatide noted that 2025 marked a turning point for the sector, largely driven by improved refinery performance and policy shifts aimed at boosting local supply.

He expressed optimism that subsequent industry reports would reflect further improvements. “By and large, I think in the year 2025, we have had a massive improvement and surge in local refining. Hopefully, subsequent reports will go up from the local refining angle, because that is what we need for economic stability,” he added.

He also identified crude oil availability as a critical constraint, particularly for the Dangote Refinery, which plays a dominant role in Nigeria’s refining landscape. Olatide said increasing crude allocation to the refinery could significantly reduce fuel imports.

“I hope in the new year, Dangote would have further access to crude, up from 30 to 40 per cent. More access to crude will really help, and then importation will reduce. The reason importation is still competing is largely because of pricing,” he explained.

Despite the positive outlook, Olatide raised concerns over conflicting production figures being reported by industry stakeholders. He pointed to recent claims by the new Chief Executive Officer of Dangote Refinery, David Bird, who said the refinery was loading about 1,000 trucks daily, equivalent to roughly 50 million litres of petroleum products.

“If you put those figures together, it suggests Dangote alone is doing about 60 to 70 per cent of our daily consumption,” Olatide said.

However, he noted that official figures from the NMDPRA paint a different picture. “NMDPRA is saying local refineries, including Dangote, are doing between 37 and 40 per cent. So clearly, there are conflicts in the reporting.”