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How Party Crises, Electoral Commission, Tinubu, Atiku, Obi, Wike Will Shape 2026

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Prevailing upsets within opposition political parties, the ability or otherwise of the ruling party to manage its successes, and the conduct of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) would largely shape Nigeria’s political space in 2026.

Also, the actions and inactions of some key political figures, including President Bola Tinubu; former Vice President Atiku Abubakar; former presidential candidate, Peter Obi; Federal Capital Territory (FCT) minister, Nyesom Wike; Oyo State governor, Seyi Makinde, would set the political tempo in the country this year.

For a pre-general election year, 2026 holds a lot of intrigues which will influence the outcome of the 2027 election.

From off-cycle elections to dicey party primaries and tendencies of key political actors and institutions, the polity, this year, is poised to be heated.

In this report , looks at some of political events and person who would decide the political trajectory of the country this year.

FCT, Ekiti, Osun off-cycle elections

The first election for the year is the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Area Council Elections billed for February 21. The polls will be held in the six councils namely, Abaji, AMAC, Bwari, Gwagwalada, Kuje and Kwali.

Besides the exercise holding right under the nose of the seat of power,

this election already has the trappings of a long tussle between the Federal Capital Territory minister Nyesom Wike and the Senator representing the FCT, Senator Ireti Kingibe, the former Labour Party member who has now joined the ADC.

The Labour Party convincingly won the FCT in the 2023 presidential election. The APC would want to use the election to make a statement.

Next are the Ekiti and Osun off cycle governorship elections. The Ekiti poll will be held on July 20, while that of Osun will take place on August 8.

Like the FCT polls, it will be another test of popularity between the ruling APC and the opposition coalition ADC.

Amupitan and INEC

The Independent National Electoral Commission will be in the eye of the storm as it oversees the FCT, Ekiti and Osun elections. The INEC chairman, Prof Joash Amupitan, would also be a person of interest in the way he manages the electoral process at a time when the opposition has little confidence in the state institutions to be non-partisan.

He had barely assumed office when the Anambra election was conducted. So, the FCT and other off-cycle elections this year will be his first true test as head of the electoral umpire.

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Also, how the institution deals with internal wranglings of parties in light of the legal dramas will be intriguing.

The judiciary and political cases

In recent years, the judiciary has been made to bear the burden of decided election cases and party leadership. It has been bombarded with a plethora of political cases. From the Labour Party to SDP, PDP and ADC, the judiciary has had to dispense with thorny leadership tussles cases.

While some are still pending, especially PDP and ADC cases, there are likely to be more of such cases this year.

Tinubu, Govs and APC’s large house

Having opened its doors to a lot of new members – including governors and lawmakers – how the APC manages its successes would be a spectacle to look out for in 2026.

President Tinubu’s political sagacity will inevitably be stretched as he juggles between governance and balancing the varied political interests within the party.

The APC leadership will also feel the heat of conflicting interests from its members, especially in states where governors and some influential members, either ministers or federal lawmakers, are locked in a supremacy tussle.

Atiku, Obi, Amaechi and ADC ticket

The texture of the ADC as a formidable opposition platform would be fully tested this year. Besides its criticisms of the incumbent’s policies, its ability to organise itself, broaden its base viz-a-viz gaining public appeal, and manage the huge egos and ambitions of its key members would be interesting to watch.

How the party’s national leadership, under the watch of Senator David Mark, manages the presidential ambitions of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi and Chibuike Amaechi, would be insightful. The three party chieftains have declared their intentions to emerge the party’s presidential candidate.

How it manages the interests of el-rufai, Tambuwal and other ambitious politicians within its ranks will also be intriguing.

Its ability to win elections will again be put to the test in the FCT, Ekiti and Osun (following its poor outing in the by elections last year Anambra).

PDP, Wike, Makinde and legal battles

The internal wrangling in PDP is another major issue to look out for in 2027. The legal dispute over the national leadership will likely be decided this year. Whichever way it swings, the tussle isn’t likely to go away, considering the entrenched ego-battle between the FCT minister, Wike and Oyo State governor Seyi Makinde. Wike and Makinde are leaders of the two warring camps in the party.

See also  Electoral reforms: Senate pushes INEC to defend election results

Rivers

From every indication, the power play in Rivers State will feature strongly in the political space this year. So far, the key actors, Wike and the state governor, Siminalayi Fubara have seemingly returned to the trenches.

While many thought that the president’s intervention via last year’s contentious state of emergency declaration would solve the problem, fresh verbal jabs have been exchanged.

This gives a foreboding of what to expect this year: a likely all out political brickbat aimed at establishing who is the political leader in the state between Wike and Fubara.

Kano politics

The politics of Kano State will be keenly followed this year. So far, rumours of state governor Abba Yusuf’s defection from the NNPP to APC has set off a political upheaval in the state and NNPP.

The first casualty of the brewing upset is the Kano State NNPP chairman, Hashimu Dungurawa, who was suspended and expelled by his ward, with the nod of the state leadership of the party.

Although a faction of the national leadership of the NNPP has rejected his suspension and expulsion, the drama is just beginning.

It was gathered that the embattled chairman is a Kwankwaso loyalist. Our correspondent stated on the eve of his expulsion by his ward, he held a lengthy meeting with Kwankwaso in Kano. However after Kwankwaso left Kano for Abuja, the chairman’s expulsion travails began.

The APC in the state has said it ready to receive the governor just as it was silent on Kwankwaso. Clearly with the defection not firmly denied by the governor, the days ahead will be interesting.

Benue’s Akume vs Alia

The battle for control of APC in Benue state between the secretary to the government of the federation, Senator George Akume and the state governor, Fr Hyacinth Alia, has simmered, boiling over a few times.

Recognising the intensity of the crisis, President Bola Tinubu set up a committee led by Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon Tajudeen Abass to reconcile the camps.

Recall that the President, during a visit to condole with the state over an attack that resulted in killings, urged the leaders to resolve their issues and work together.

What’s the north going to do in 2026?

See also  Rivers LG poll - Atiku demands annulment as Wike reasserts control

The position of the Northern region with regards to President Tinubu’s second term bid would be suspect this year.

Although the concept of the monolithic North has increasingly become far-fetched, some pundits are still mindful of how some leaders of the region would lean as political events unfold.

Reactions

The national president of the Nigeria Political Scientists Association (NPSA), Prof Hassan Saliu said the political parties, INEC, and others have bigger responsibilities this year, especially if the proposal to hold the general elections this year sails through.

Saliu spoke with LEADERSHIP in Ilorin, Kwara State.

On INEC, Saliu said the new chairman should follow the law and be fair to all stakeholders and ensure adequate consultations with relevant stakeholders.

“INEC chairman should pay attention to staff welfare. The only challenge is that his best might not be good enough for the ruling party, who may later have issues with the orientation of the chairman. My advice is for him to engage continually with all.”

Speaking about APC, he said being the ruling party in Nigeria, it seems to have everything working in its favour for now.

“Most defectors have joined its fold, making it a leading party in the country. While it might remain dominant, I don’t see it becoming the only party in Nigeria, and that would bring peace to the land.

“To maximise the opportunity of being the most viable party in the country, it would need to address the economic challenges facing the masses.

It should also be vigilant in avoiding sabotage from its own ranks,” he said.

With regards to the ADC, Saliu said Peter Obi’s membership of the party is good news.

He however said one outstanding challenge the party faces is that many of its leaders have not connected properly with ordinary Nigerians to win their hearts.

“They’re being seen as no different from members of the ruling party. This is a challenge for the party. The party needs to read the political temperature more seriously to have a good entry point. The chances are bright if they can connect more with Nigerians and conduct seamless primaries that will be acceptable to all its contestants. It’s risky to write off any party Sat this point.”

Source: LEADERSHIP.NG

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PDP faction slams candidate withdrawals in FCT elections as ‘anti‑democratic’

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A faction of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has expressed “utter dismay” over the withdrawal of some of its chairmanship candidates from the forthcoming Abuja Local Council elections, calling the move “anti-democratic in every sense.”

The party also warned that it reflects a troubling trend in the party’s leadership.

In a Friday statement on its social handles, the National Working Committee of the party said: “The National Working Committee of the Party @OfficialPDPNig has received with utter dismay the news of the withdrawal or stepping down of some Chairmanship Candidates of our Party from the forthcoming Abuja Local Council elections.”

Describing the development as a symptom of a broader problem, the party accused some leaders of fostering what it termed “voodoo democracy.”

It read, “As sad as this development is, it is a pointer to the type of voodoo democracy promoted by those parading as leaders of the PDP, whose only interest is to ‘hold’ the party for the President.”

The statement also warned that such actions could foreshadow attempts to manipulate presidential elections.

It continued, “This is exactly what they intended to do to Nigerians, when close to the Presidential elections, they can compel, induce or cajole all the other candidates to step down or withdraw for the President to have a smooth sail back to Aso Rock Villa, despite the abysmal performance of his administration.”

The PDP said it had previously acted against such behavior within the party: “It was for ignoble, reckless and shameless acts like these that we excommunicated them from our party, in order to rebuild a strong opposition party, prepared for a struggle to return to power by 2027.”

See also  PDP Governors In Closed-door Meeting

The statement concluded with instructions for voters: “Furthermore, voters should go to the polls prepared to protect their votes and ensure that Presiding Officers transmit Form EC8A immediately after announcing the result at the polling unit.”

The press release was signed by Comrade Ini Ememobong, MNIPR, National Publicity Secretary of the People’s Democratic Party.

PDP  chairmanship candidate for the Bwari Area Council election, Julius Adamu, on Wednesday withdrew from the race in favour of the All Progressives Congress candidate, Joshua Musa.

The stand-down, marked by a show of supporters and political heavyweights, took place on Wednesday in Bwari, where FCT Minister Nyesom Wike was present.

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Aiyedatiwa vs Tunji-Ojo: Political cold war sparks killings, violence in Ondo state APC

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In line with the directive of the National Secretariat of the All Progressives Congress, congresses to elect party officials at the ward, local government and state levels were scheduled for February and March this year.

However, concerns are mounting that the exercise in Ondo State could be marred by crisis amid a perceived supremacy battle between Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa and the Minister of Interior, Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo, popularly known as BTO.

The alleged battle for control of Ondo APC took a deadly turn on Wednesday when two people were reportedly killed and five others injured during violent clashes at the ward congress in Odode-Idanre, the headquarters of Idanre Local Government Area. The incidents occurred as the ruling party conducted congresses across its 203 wards in the state.

The unrest is believed to be a spillover from Tuesday’s disruption at the party secretariat in Akure, where suspected hoodlums stormed a stakeholders’ meeting and assaulted party leaders.

Among the victims was Raphael Adetimehin, younger brother of the state APC caretaker chairman, Ade Adetimehin, who sustained machete wounds after attackers allegedly mistook him for his brother due to their resemblance. Eyewitnesses reported that his vehicle was set ablaze before he was rushed to the General Hospital in Idanre, where he remains in a coma.

By party tradition and structure, the governor is widely regarded as the leader of the party at the state level, just as the President occupies that position nationally. As a minister appointed by the President, Tunji-Ojo technically falls within that federal hierarchy.

However, recent developments suggest that the Ondo State chapter of the APC has quietly split into two blocs — one aligned with Governor Aiyedatiwa and the other with the Interior Minister.

Although neither Aiyedatiwa nor Tunji-Ojo has openly acknowledged any rift, subtle signs of tension have fuelled speculation. At the recently concluded 50th anniversary celebration of Ondo State, both men publicly displayed cordiality. A viral video showed them exchanging warm embraces at the Government House in Alagbaka. They also sat side-by-side at the grand finale held at the Akure Township Stadium, where Tunji-Ojo represented President Bola Tinubu. At least outwardly, there was no visible sign of animosity.

Behind the scenes, however, party sources claim the minister has been playing an increasingly influential role within the state chapter. Tunji-Ojo is said to have cultivated strong ties with party elders and stakeholders, providing financial support and attending to their needs — gestures that have reportedly earned him loyalty and reverence among some members. He is also believed to be coordinating various support groups working for President Tinubu’s re-election across the state.

Some beneficiaries of the minister’s outreach have allegedly accused Governor Aiyedatiwa of not doing enough to strengthen party structures, despite being the state’s chief executive.

The alleged rivalry came into sharper focus on Tuesday when political thugs invaded the APC state secretariat in Akure during a pre-ward congress stakeholders’ meeting. The attackers reportedly assaulted several party leaders, including the state chairman, Ade Adetimehin; the Ondo State representative on the board of the Niger Delta Development Commission, Otito Atikase; former Sports Commissioner Saka Yusuf-Ogunleye; and former Water Resources Commissioner Yetunde Adeyanju, among others.

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In the aftermath, allegations emerged from some quarters that the governor’s camp orchestrated the disruption, claiming he had not approved the timing of the meeting. However, no official confirmation has substantiated those claims.

The former commissioner, Adeyanju, who was allegedly rough-handled by the thugs said, “The thugs came and were shouting, ‘we are from Aiyedatiwa.’ They specifically mentioned Aiyedatiwa, that ‘Aiyeatiwa sent us. We don’t want congress in Ondo State. The governor is in charge. The governor is the leader of the state and the governor is in charge. Nobody can query the authority of the governor and anybody that wants to talk about congress in Ondo State will be assassinated. If you talk about congress in Ondo State, you will be assassinated.’ They said that Aiyedatiwa owned the state, so, nobody should talk about congress.

Corroborating Adeyanju, the state party chairman, Adetimehin said, “The chairman of the committee (from Abuja) said we should hold a stakeholders meeting today (Tuesday). We both agreed to hold the meeting by 12pm. Then we sent this out for all of us to attend. Then I told the governor that I heard from the grapevine that some people were mobilising to the secretariat to destroy the meeting. He said no that such a thing cannot happen under his watch, that he would take charge. He (Aiyedatiwa) said he would caution anybody behind it, but 30 minutes later, the place was invaded with thugs, with cutlasses and other dangerous weapons. They beat hell out of all the leaders and members, except those who are for them. They beat me and dragged me on the floor; they took away my two phones and money from my pocket, with my wristwatch.”

 

 

However, Governor Aiyedatiwa denied any involvement in the disruption. The stakeholders’ meeting was eventually held later on Tuesday evening at the party secretariat — albeit in the absence of the state chairman.

The governor maintained that supporters of various aspirants were responsible for the violence, insisting he had no hand in the attack. He further clarified that the earlier gathering which was disrupted was not an officially recognised stakeholders’ meeting.

“But this one was an impromptu stakeholders’ meeting because of the congresses at the ward and local government levels. As he said, the meeting was shifted to 2pm because it was initially fixed for 10am and I said I would not be able to make it at that time. Later on, I got a call from one of them saying there were some problems around, or some miscreants around the party secretariat. I asked him to call the Commissioner of Police, and I also called the Commissioner of Police to ensure the place was protected because I was going to attend the meeting.

“I asked that security operatives be deployed to protect the place. Later, I got to know that some miscreants, who had sympathy for one aspirant or the other, those who are contesting for one position or the other, were moving around and trying to create some kind of fracas among them, which led to some disturbances.”

A chieftain of the party and Director-General of the pro-BTO group known as the Grassroots Movement for Tinubu, Saka Yusuf-Ogunleye, confirmed the internal crisis in the state APC relating to the governor and the minister, but blamed the governor for not managing the situation well as the leader of the party in the state.

Yusuf-Ogunleye, who was a former Commissioner for Sports in the state, alleged that Tunji-Ojo had been taking care of the party after it was abandoned by the governor. According to him, the gesture had earned the minister significant popularity, leaving the governor jittery.

See also  PDP Governors In Closed-door Meeting

He stated, “Let me tell you, there is what is called an inferiority complex. When the governor abandons the party — the people who brought him into power — it is BTO who steps in to take care of them. For instance, during the last Christmas period, when the governor was distributing rice to every local government, the rice was delivered to and received by political office holders and not party members.

“The party was abandoned, and it was BTO who brought rice and gave 20 bags to each ward, irrespective of affiliation. He is not shunning the party; he is taking care of it. But the governor is not happy about it because he (Tunji-Ojo) did not allow party members to suffer.

“If not for BTO today, there would be no APC in the state. That is the truth. That is why you see all the party leaders on his side. But the governor is not comfortable. They are saying BTO wants to become governor. You (Aiyedatiwa) have not even spent a year in office. You still have about three years in this tenure. Why not concentrate on governance and build the party? As a governor, why are you beating your party people? More than 17 party leaders are in different hospitals in the state now after the attack yesterday (Tuesday). Why resort to violence?”

On the contrary, the Chief Press Secretary to the governor declared that Aiyedatiwa remained the leader by virtue of his position as the state governor and that he had been carrying everyone along in the spirit of fairness while playing a strong leadership role in the party.

He denied any rift between his principal and the minister.

“The governor is the leader of the party and father to all party members. He has always provided leadership that embraces all groups and interests in the party since he became governor. He is the first governor in the history of the state to hold quarterly stakeholders’ engagements with party leaders, and this has fostered unity and a sense of belonging in the APC in the state.

“On the crisis in the ward congress in some parts of the state, the pockets of issues recorded have nothing to do with the governor, and that is why he called on security agencies to restore order at the party secretariat on Tuesday. The governor has also called on security agencies to investigate the crisis that took place in Idanre earlier today (Wednesday) and bring the perpetrators to justice.”

“He has also appealed to all aspirants contesting for party positions to call their followers and supporters to order as his administration will not tolerate any breakdown of law and order in any part of the state,” he stated.

See also  Kano, North will repay Tinubu’s goodwill in 2027 – Barau

In the same vein, the state Commissioner for Information, Idowu Ajanaku, said there was no rift between the governor and the minister, adding that as leader of the party in the state, Aiyedatiwa has provided effective leadership and fostered unity among members.

“I am not aware of any crisis anywhere, the governor is the party leader , no argument about that,” Ajanaku said.

In a situation like this, one would naturally ask about the role of the party elders, who had previously claimed to be unaware of the matter.

However, it now appears they acknowledge that there is crisis brewing within the party and have promised to intervene, particularly concerning the attack on the secretariat on Tuesday.

The chairman of the elders’ forum, Pa Erastus Akeju, said, “This dichotomy between BTO and the governor is new to us; we were not aware of it. It has not been brought before the elders. BTO has not reported to us that the governor is after him. The governor has not reached out to us to say that BTO is challenging him.

“We are just waiting for an opportunity to see what is really happening. You see, when there is no report of violence or disagreement — physical disagreement, I mean — we cannot simply go to the governor and ask, ‘Are you quarreling with BTO?’ or ask BTO, ‘What is between you and the governor?’ We would be told, ‘Nothing.’ So it is only now, as the issue has escalated publicly into a physical confrontation, that we can say, ‘All right, it’s time for the elders to intervene.’”

A political affairs analyst, Lanre Alewa, described the cold war between the governor and the minister as unhealthy for the ruling party, particularly with the general election fast approaching. He also stressed the need for the two APC chieftains to rein in their supporters, whom he described as the major cause of the crisis.

He said, “The minister and the governor were together at the recent 50th anniversary celebration of Ondo State. They were on the podium together, and the minister visited the governor at the Government House. They were visibly together. So, some people may claim they are fighting, but I have not seen anywhere that the minister directly accused the governor, or the governor directly accused the minister.

“At times, these political jobbers, who call themselves supporters, cause such issues. They must be called to order by their principals so they do not destroy the party.

“They just go out into the streets and act as they please. You cannot ascribe that to the governor or the minister — that would be wrong. I have not heard either of them say anything to that effect. However, if such a dispute exists, the national leadership should intervene and settle the matter amicably.”

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Kanu’s freedom, Igbo presidency possible through alignment with Tinubu – Cubana Chief Priest

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Popular socialite and businessman Pascal Okechukwu, popularly known as Cubana Chief Priest, has called on the people of the South-East to support with President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 elections in order to secure the release of the detained leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra, Nnamdi Kanu.

Reacting on Wednesday to a viral video where a South-East monarch urged the President to either release Kanu or return him to Kenya, the celebrity barman praised the monarch for taking the message directly to the seat of power.

He noted the monarch’s physical presence in Abuja was necessary to ensure the President heard the plight of the South-East.

Writing in Pidgin, Cubana Chief Priest wrote, “God bless you, Your Royal Highness for partaking in Nigeria. If Your Highness did not participate in Abuja, how Asiwaju wan take hear this message. If to say dem no record this video play for una, them for call his royal highness sell out say him don go collect money.”

He urged the region to “align” with the current administration rather than maintain a stance of opposition, saying, “Alignment is key, we no fit fight government, Asiwaju go free MNK. His Royal Highness don put am for Baba body. Let’s get along with Nigeria.”

The socialite further urged the South-East to reconsider its political stance ahead of the next elections, stating that Tinubu won the 2023 election without significant votes from the region.

Addressing the 2023 elections, he reminded his followers that President Tinubu emerged victorious without the majority of the South-East vote, suggesting that a repeat is likely in the future unless the region changes its approach.

See also  Electoral reforms: Senate pushes INEC to defend election results

He also suggested that active support for the current administration could be the “best stake” for the Igbo people to eventually produce a president.

He wrote, “Last election, Tinubu won without South-East, it’s clear he will win again. So why not give him the votes so he can do what we ask of him in return.

“Hopefully, he will hand over power to an Igbo man. He made Buhari president, a Hausa man. He made himself, a Yoruba man president. What makes you think he won’t make an Igbo man president if we clearly support him for one more term?

“Igbo best stake is on Asiwaju. Just think it out. Man has the best political structure in the country to win election make we no waste our votes.”

PUNCH Online reported on Tuesday that a traditional ruler from the South-East, Dr Lawrence Agubuzu, the Eze Ogbunechendo of Ezema Olo Kingdom, urged Tinubu to release Kanu, or return him to Kenya, where he was arrested, warning that his continued detention was fuelling agitation among youths in the region.

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