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States pay N455bn to service foreign loans

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States paid N455.38bn in foreign debt service in 2025, up from N362.08bn in 2024, according to Federation Accounts Allocation Committee figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics and obtained and analysed by The PUNCH.

The year-on-year comparison indicates that subnational governments’ foreign debt deductions rose by N93.30bn, representing a 25.77 per cent increase in 2025 over the prior year.

In plain terms, states collectively lost a larger share of their FAAC inflows to external loan repayments and related obligations in 2025 than in 2024, tightening the fiscal space available for salaries, capital projects, and routine governance.

The monthly pattern in 2025 also shows step-downs rather than a smooth curve. Total foreign debt service across the 36 states stood at N40.09bn in January, before easing to N39.10bn in February, a month-on-month drop of N994.96m, or 2.48 per cent.

From March through July, the national total held steady at N39.10bn each month, suggesting a stretch of largely fixed, predictable deductions. The next big shift came in August, when total deductions fell again to N36.14bn, down N2.95bn or 7.56 per cent from July.

The lower level then persisted through September, October, November, and December, each at N36.14bn. That step pattern contrasts with 2024, when the totals swung more sharply early in the year before settling into long flat runs.

States’ foreign debt service was N9.88bn in January 2024, then jumped to N24.53bn in February and peaked at N40.41bn in March. The total then dropped to N21.70bn in April and stayed flat at that level through May, June, and July.

A second step-up arrived in August 2024, when deductions rose to N40.09bn, and that figure held through the last five months of the year.

Against that backdrop, 2025 looked like a year of smaller but still significant recalibration, with two key reductions and long stretches of stable deductions.

Foreign debt service in the FAAC context refers to deductions made at source from allocations to meet states’ external loan repayment obligations. It is part of the “first line charge” culture that protects creditors and ensures repayments are prioritised, but it also means states have less discretionary cash to deploy, particularly in months where federation revenue is under pressure.

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A closer look at the states with the largest foreign debt service burdens in 2025 shows a strong concentration. The top 10 states alone accounted for about 68.57 per cent of total foreign debt service in the year, showing how external debt repayment exposure is heavily skewed toward a handful of large borrowers.

Lagos topped the table, with N92.80bn deducted in 2025, up from N72.32bn in 2024. That was an increase of N20.49bn or 28.33 per cent, meaning roughly one-fifth of the entire national total for 2025 came from Lagos alone, at 20.38 per cent of all state foreign debt service.

Rivers followed, recording N48.58bn in 2025 against N23.13bn in 2024. The year-on-year jump of N25.45bn represented a steep 110.02 per cent increase, making Rivers one of the most notable movers in the data.

Kaduna ranked third at N47.93bn in 2025, compared with N45.59bn in 2024. Its foreign debt service rose by N2.34bn, a more modest 5.13 per cent increase, but the absolute figure remained high enough to keep Kaduna among the biggest contributors nationally.

In fourth place was Ogun, with deductions totalling N25.20bn in 2025, up from N11.99bn in 2024. That translated into a N13.21bn increase or 110.22 per cent, effectively meaning Ogun’s foreign debt service more than doubled year-on-year.

Cross River ranked fifth with N21.01bn in 2025, up from N17.10bn in 2024. The N3.91bn increase represented 22.86 per cent, keeping Cross River among the higher external repayment states.

Oyo ranked sixth, posting N20.17bn in 2025, up from N17.85bn in 2024. Its foreign debt service rose by N2.32bn, a 12.98 per cent increase. Edo came seventh with N18.70bn in 2025, compared with N16.73bn in 2024. The state recorded a N1.97bn rise, translating to 11.78 per cent.

Bauchi ranked eighth at N16.85bn in 2025, up from N13.75bn in 2024. That is an increase of N3.10bn, representing 22.58 per cent. Kano placed ninth, with N10.63bn in 2025 compared with N8.53bn in 2024. The difference of N2.10bn represented 24.67 per cent growth.

Rounding out the top 10 was Ebonyi, where foreign debt service rose to N10.37bn in 2025 from N6.77bn in 2024. The increase of N3.60bn was 53.09 per cent, placing Ebonyi among the fastest growers in the top bracket.

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Beyond the top 10, the pattern across the remaining states still points to broad-based pressure. Several states posted multi-billion-naira annual totals even outside the leading group, reflecting how external debt servicing has become a routine and material component of FAAC deductions for many governments.

When the figures are viewed through the geopolitical lens, the concentration remains clear. The South-West recorded the highest foreign debt service in 2025 at N162.77bn, accounting for 35.74 per cent of the national total. This zone’s dominance was driven largely by Lagos, alongside sizeable deductions in Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo, and Ekiti.

The South-South ranked second, with N100.37bn, or 22.04 per cent of total foreign debt service, in 2025. The zone’s total was supported by significant deductions in Rivers, Edo, Cross River, Delta, Akwa Ibom, and Bayelsa, showing that the external debt repayment burden is not limited to one or two standout states.

The North-West came third at N81.97bn, representing 18.00 per cent of the national total. Kaduna’s high deductions played a major role, complemented by Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Jigawa, Sokoto, and Zamfara.

Outside the top three, the North East recorded N42.42bn, or 9.32 per cent, reflecting sizable deductions in states such as Bauchi, Adamawa, Borno, Gombe, Taraba, and Yobe. The South-East posted N40.20bn, about 8.83 per cent, excluding Edo, but the region’s total was anchored by states such as Imo, Enugu, Abia, Anambra, and Ebonyi.

The North Central recorded the lowest among the six zones at N27.65bn or 6.07 per cent, covering Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, and Plateau.

In a recent statement, the acting Director of Communication and Stakeholders Management at the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, Mrs Obiageli Onuorah, noted that states face financial strain due to debt repayments, despite record-high disbursements from the Federation Accounts Allocation Committee.

According to the statement, a NEITI report showed that several states with high debt burdens also ranked lower in FAAC allocations, raising concerns about their fiscal sustainability and their ability to fund critical projects.

“The report noted that many states with high debt ratios were in the lower half of the FAAC allocation rankings but ranked higher for debt deductions, raising concerns about their debt-to-revenue ratios and overall fiscal health,” the statement read.

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Also, economists have warned that without a significant increase in revenue generation, the rising debt service burden could crowd out spending on essential services and infrastructure.

The Director and Chief Economist at Proshare Nigeria LLC, Teslim Shitta-Bey, earlier warned that the rising debt burden on Nigeria’s subnational governments could challenge their fiscal stability in the coming years.

He stressed that most state governments, along with the Federal Government, had failed to manage their balance sheets effectively. Speaking to The PUNCH, Shitta-Bey said, “The challenge here is that most of the governments, including the Federal Government, are unable to manage their balance sheets properly. While borrowing might seem like an easy way to run operations, it is not necessarily the right approach.”

According to Shitta-Bey, borrowing should not be the default solution for governments. “Governments could consider longer-term debt structures that resemble equity, which might actually be more beneficial in the long run,” he explained.

He also called for a comprehensive register of national assets to help states raise capital. He used the example of the National Stadium, which had not been used for major activities for a while.

Shitta-Bey lamented the underuse of state revenue bonds, which were originally designed to generate revenue. “States need to focus on raising revenue bonds instead of general obligation bonds,” he said.

A macroeconomic analyst, Dayo Adenubi, also emphasised the need for states to take more targeted steps toward boosting internally generated revenue as they grapple with rising debt obligations and constrained federal transfers.

According to Adenubi, one key strategy is to raise consumption levels in order to increase Value Added Tax collections. He also stressed the importance of improving tax collection within state corridors, especially by enforcing taxes such as property taxes and transport-related levies, while ensuring that governments deliver on the social contract to maintain citizen trust and compliance.

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Refinery IPO: Dangote woos Nigerians as investors flood NGX

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Investors flooded the Nigerian Exchange on Monday as the Initial Public Offering of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals recorded an unprecedented rush, attracting billions of naira in subscriptions within minutes of its official opening.

The milestone was announced during the opening gong ceremony at the NGX trading floor in Marina, Lagos, where top government officials, traditional leaders and key capital market operators gathered to mark the commencement of the public offer.

President and Chief Executive Officer of Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, sounded the gong to formally open the N2.15tn IPO, making Dangote refinery the first petroleum refinery to be offered to investors on the stock market in the Exchange’s 66-year history.

The IPO comprises 4.1 billion ordinary shares offered at N525 per share, with a minimum subscription of 10 shares valued at N5,250. The subscription window opened on Monday, September 14, 2026, and is scheduled to close on October 13, 2026, subject to the terms contained in the prospectus.

The offer is open to retail, institutional, and eligible African investors.

Dangote urged Nigerians, including teachers, artisans, civil servants and students, to invest in the refinery, describing the offer as an opportunity for ordinary Nigerians and Africans to become part owners of the strategic asset.

“The Dangote refinery IPO is more than an investment opportunity; it is an opportunity for millions of Nigerians and Africans to build lasting wealth through ownership of a world-class industrial asset. We have built a refinery that is already delivering strong revenues, solid profitability, and significant value to the economy.

“By investing today, shareholders are not only positioning themselves to enjoy attractive returns and dividend prospects, but they are also laying the foundation for generational wealth that can benefit their children and grandchildren. This offer is designed to allow ordinary people to participate in an extraordinary success story and share in the long-term value that Dangote refinery will continue to create for decades to come,” he stated.

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Dangote said the refinery IPO was also the beginning of a broader plan to list more companies within the group. “We fully share all our prosperity with the people. That’s why we call this a ‘People’s IPO.’ We know the journey has actually just started. It’s not only about the refinery,” Dangote said.

He added that the group intended to list all its operating entities in the future. “We, as a group, will list every single company that will operate. I don’t know about the others, but I know our own market cap, even at a 10 times P/E ratio by 2030, should not be less than $350bn,” he stated.

Dangote said the Nigerian Exchange would serve as the primary platform from which the group could pursue dual listings on other global exchanges. “From this exchange, then we can go to any other place. Nigeria and Africa are our base. We want to make sure that we join our continent,” he noted.

He said the IPO reflected the group’s philosophy of creating prosperity through broad ownership and enabling ordinary citizens to share in the success of transformational businesses.

“We are not merely offering shares; we are offering Nigerians an opportunity to participate in a transformational chapter of our economic history. This is a strategic investment in an asset that is creating jobs, conserving foreign exchange, enhancing energy security and strengthening Africa’s industrial capacity,” he stated.

Dangote disclosed that the refinery generated approximately N19.47tn in revenue in the first half of 2026, while profit after tax stood at N2.55tn. At the offer price of N525 per share, the refinery is expected to have an implied market capitalisation of about N65.22tn.

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When combined with the market capitalisations of Dangote Cement Plc and Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc, the listing is projected to create an equity cluster valued at about N83.5tn on the Nigerian Exchange.

Dangote’s net worth

A report by Bloomberg said Aliko Dangote’s net worth may rise to as much as $58.2bn following the IPO. The projection represents an increase of about $22.9bn from his current estimated wealth of $35.3bn, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

The IPO is expected to raise about $1.6bn and value the refinery at almost $50bn, according to the report.

Bloomberg said the increase in Dangote’s wealth could push the Nigerian billionaire past US hedge fund manager Ken Griffin and technology billionaire Eric Schmidt on the global wealth ranking.

Dangote said the IPO was designed to give Nigerians and other investors an opportunity to participate in the business.

“We, as Nigerians and Africans, must be bold and lead the change to develop our economies; only then will the others take us very seriously, only then we’ll be in a position to negotiate and walk away with terms we deserve, not those terms that are given to us,” Dangote said at an IPO signing ceremony in Lagos.

The Chairman of NGX Group, Umaru Kwairanga, described the transaction as a defining milestone for Africa’s capital markets and evidence of the capacity of African capital to finance large-scale projects.

Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, said the IPO would create investment opportunities for a broad range of Nigerians.

“This transaction is changing perceptions about what is possible in Africa. It is creating opportunities for a broad spectrum of investors, from small business owners and market traders to institutional investors and technology entrepreneurs,” he said.

The Ooni of Ife, Oba Adeyeye Enitan Ogunwusi Ojaja II, commended the democratisation of the offer, stating that making shares accessible at an entry point of N5,250 allows everyday retail investors across the country to participate directly in national wealth creation.

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Similarly, a former NGX President, Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede, highlighted the swift capital inflow observed in the data room, noting that the overwhelming early response underscored strong investor confidence in the company’s long-term governance and financial prospects.

The Chief Executive Officer of the Botswana Stock Exchange, Kesegofetse Molatlhegi, also commended Dangote for demonstrating that African ambition could deliver globally significant industrial projects.

Meanwhile, the Chief Executive Officer of Dangote Petroleum Refinery, David Bird, said the refinery had become the largest single supplier of refined petroleum products into Europe while maintaining safe, reliable and efficient operations.

Bird added that the company remained focused on achieving its Vision 2030 objective of becoming the world’s largest integrated refinery and petrochemical complex.

Dangote said the refinery had fulfilled its core vision of transforming Nigeria from a major importer of refined petroleum products into a significant refining and export hub.

“This is a defining investment opportunity. We want millions of Nigerians and Africans to become owners of a business that has been built to create value for generations. Those who invest today are positioning themselves to benefit from the growth, resilience and enduring legacy of a truly transformational enterprise,” he stated.

He said the group’s expansion across Africa was aimed at supporting industrialisation on the continent.

“Our vision 2030 and mantra at the Dangote Group is accelerating Africa’s industrialization. As we continue to invest in Nigeria as the powerhouse in Africa, we must also preach and take this gospel to other parts of the continent,” he stated.

Source: punchng.com

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CBN reveals that Banks shut 476 branches in three years, read details

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Deposit Money Banks in Nigeria closed a net 476 branches and cash centres between 2022 and 2025, reducing their physical footprint by 8.8 per cent in three years, according to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria.

Figures contained in the CBN’s 2025 Statistical Bulletin for the Financial Sector showed that the number of bank branches and cash centres across the country declined from 5,410 in 2022 to 4,934 in 2025.

The decline occurred despite an increase in the number of banks operating in the country over the period, pointing to a gradual contraction in physical banking locations.

An analysis by The PUNCH showed that the number of branches fell by 37 from 5,410 in 2022 to 5,373 in 2023. The pace of contraction accelerated in the following year, with 229 locations disappearing as the total dropped to 5,144 in 2024. Banks closed another net 210 locations in 2025, bringing the number down to 4,934.

Consequently, about 92 per cent of the 476 net reduction recorded over the three-year period occurred in 2024 and 2025. The CBN explained that the figures cover branches and cash centres operated by commercial, merchant and non-interest banks. The data were sourced from the apex bank and the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation.

The reduction in physical banking locations came even as the number of banks increased from 32 in 2022 to 33 in 2023 and 35 in 2024, before declining slightly to 34 in 2025. The number of branches operated abroad remained unchanged at two throughout the period.

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A state-by-state analysis showed that Lagos recorded the largest decline in absolute terms. The country’s commercial hub had 1,602 branches and cash centres in 2022, but the figure fell to 1,532 in 2023 and 1,521 in 2024 before dropping further to 1,444 in 2025.

This meant banks closed a net 158 locations in Lagos within three years, representing a 9.9 per cent reduction. The state alone accounted for about one-third of the net decline recorded nationwide.

Despite the reduction, Lagos remained the dominant location for physical banking operations, accounting for about 29 per cent of the country’s 4,934 branches and cash centres in 2025.

The Federal Capital Territory also recorded a decline. The number of locations in Abuja stood at 400 in both 2022 and 2023 before falling to 391 in 2024 and 362 in 2025. This represented a net reduction of 38 branches and cash centres, or 9.5 per cent, over the three-year period.

Ekiti suffered one of the steepest contractions, with its branch network almost halving from 107 locations in 2022 to 57 in 2025, representing a decline of 50 locations or 46.7 per cent.

Enugu followed with a reduction of 44 locations from 162 to 118, while Oyo lost 41, declining from 237 to 196. Other states that recorded sizeable declines included Ondo, where the number fell from 127 to 105; Plateau, from 80 to 61; Osun, from 113 to 96; Cross River, from 83 to 67; and Rivers, from 290 to 275.

The decline was also evident in some of the major commercial centres in northern Nigeria. Kano increased its physical banking locations from 164 in 2022 to 175 in 2023 and 183 in 2024. However, the number fell sharply to 157 in 2025, leaving the state with seven fewer locations than it had three years earlier.

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Kaduna followed a similar pattern, rising from 148 locations in 2022 to 156 in 2023 and 164 in 2024 before dropping to 146 in 2025.

Some states, however, recorded an expansion in their banking networks. Delta added 23 locations, with its total increasing from 173 in 2022 to 196 in 2025. Edo also rose from 155 to 165, while Jigawa increased from 31 to 37 and Kogi from 63 to 68.

The data further showed wide disparities in the distribution of physical banking infrastructure across the country. While Lagos alone had 1,444 locations in 2025, Yobe had 23, Taraba 26 and Zamfara 28. Bayelsa and Gombe had 31 each, while Ebonyi recorded 32.

For instance, Lagos alone accounted for more than 29 per cent of all branches and cash centres nationwide in 2025, highlighting the concentration of physical banking infrastructure in the country’s major economic centre.

The latest figures indicate that the contraction in the industry’s physical footprint has accelerated in recent years, underscoring how rapidly banking is migrating from brick-and-mortar to electronic platforms.

The PUNCH recently reported that the Central Bank of Nigeria called for greater adoption of alternative payment channels to expand access to financial services and stimulate economic activity.

Acting Director, Corporate Communications and Investor Relations Department of the CBN, Hakama Sidi-Ali, made the call at the 2026 CBN Fair in Lokoja, Kogi State.

Represented by Zubairu Salihu, Branch Controller of the CBN Lokoja Branch, she said alternative payment channels were particularly important for farmers, traders, small businesses and informal-sector operators who may have limited access to conventional banking services.

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Crude hits $107, fresh petrol price hike looms

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Petrol prices in Nigeria may rise further as international crude oil prices surged to $107 per barrel on Thursday from about $100 the previous day.

The latest rally has increased pressure on domestic petrol prices, which have already climbed from about N830 per litre before the Middle East crisis to N1,310 or more in some locations.

Before the crisis began on February 28, crude oil traded below $69 per barrel. However, the subsequent disruption to global oil supplies has pushed international prices sharply higher, prompting the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and fuel importers to adjust their pricing.

With Brent crude now above $107 per barrel and the US-Iran conflict continuing to disrupt tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, marketers and analysts warned that another petrol price increase could be imminent.

According to Oilprice.com, Brent crude surged to $107 per barrel on Thursday as the prolonged military confrontation between the United States and Iran continued to disrupt oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns over a sustained reduction in global crude availability.

The international benchmark gained more than five per cent in early trading, extending the rally that pushed it above the $100 mark earlier in the week.

West Texas Intermediate also climbed above $100 per barrel, reflecting growing global concerns that the conflict may continue to constrain crude supplies.

The latest increase was driven largely by a sharp decline in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Oilprice.com reported that volumes, which had recovered to between six million and nine million barrels per day in previous weeks, had fallen sharply, with recent estimates putting daily outflows below two million barrels.

Shipping trackers also reported that no very large crude carriers had exited the strait since early September, a significant decline from the higher tanker traffic recorded during the brief period of relative calm.

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The escalation of attacks on tankers and commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf and surrounding waters has further heightened uncertainty in the oil market.

Iran claimed to have struck several ships, while the United States confirmed the destruction of some Iranian oil tankers. Officials from both sides have given no indication of an imminent ceasefire, with their statements suggesting that the confrontation could continue for weeks or longer.

Analysts said the absence of a clear path towards de-escalation had forced traders to reassess global supply risks.

Physical crude benchmarks had already moved above $100 in recent sessions, while the futures market followed as inventories tightened and alternative export routes faced increased exposure to attacks.

For months, reports of recovering tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had helped to limit upward pressure on crude prices. That outlook has now changed.

With oil flows sharply reduced and no clear diplomatic resolution in sight, global markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility of prolonged disruption to one of the world’s most important energy transit routes.

For Nigeria, sustained increases in international crude prices could continue to feed into the domestic petrol market, particularly as refiners and importers adjust their prices to reflect changes in global crude and related supply costs.

Source: punchng.com

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