Africa hosts military bases within reach of Iranian missiles and is feeling the impact of rising oil prices and threats to shipping, as the continent again suffers from events largely beyond its control.

The continent is “structurally exposed” to the Middle East war, said Hubert Kinkoh, senior researcher at the CARPO think tank.

“Energy imports, foreign military bases, and its proximity to maritime chokepoints mean the war’s effects reach African shores quickly.”

– Targets –

The Horn of Africa includes possible targets for Iranian strikes, notably the 4,000 US military personnel at Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti.

It lies less than 100 miles (160 kilometres) from Yemen, where Houthi rebels have an arsenal of ballistic and anti-ship missiles and drones, courtesy of Iran.

The Houthis have not engaged in the conflict despite vowing to do so, but have previously caused major trade disruption with attacks on Red Sea shipping during the Israel-Hamas war.

Somaliland, just south of Djibouti, could also be a target as it hosts a major port and military base at Berbera run by another Iranian enemy, the United Arab Emirates.

Israel recently became the only country to recognise Somaliland’s independence from Somalia, and a Western diplomat told AFP that it may already have troops in Somaliland.

“Berbera is not a confirmed target, but its location (near the southern entrance to the Red Sea) leaves it vulnerable, particularly as Iran‑aligned groups widen the range of facilities they view as linked to US or allied operations,” said Kinkoh.

– Economic impact –

Economically, the war is terrible timing for Africa, just as a weaker dollar and lower interest rates offered some breathing space for its many deeply indebted nations.

The war is disrupting global trade, diverting ships from the Suez Canal to the pricier route around the Cape, and hiking prices across the board, including for energy and food.

An oil producer like Nigeria might have benefited, but it locked in low prices for its exports in long-term contracts and remains a net importer of refined fuel because of its limited refining capacity.

Pump prices in Nigeria were up around 14 per cent this week.

Nigerian think tank SBM Intelligence said the new crisis has exposed its government’s “wait-and-see” approach to international affairs, which leaves its “economic interests subject to forces beyond our control” — a criticism that could be levelled at many on the continent.

African economies also rely on remittances from the hundreds of thousands of migrant workers in the Gulf that are now threatened. Previous crises in the Middle East have revealed the near-total lack of evacuation planning or even emergency hotlines for them.

– Diplomatic fallout –

While some African countries have done too little, others are accused of over-reach.

South Africa is perhaps the most exposed diplomatically, having already riled the United States with its opposition to Israel, and hosted Iranian warships for naval exercises in January — even if the government has since disavowed its involvement and said the military acted against presidential orders.

“South Africa will want to reinforce the signalling to the world that it is a non-aligned neutral actor. That is a message it’s going to really struggle to sell, given that Iran was so active in the exercise,” said Timothy Walker, of the Institute for Security Studies.

William Gumede, professor of public management at the University of Witwatersrand, said South Africa’s geopolitical posturing was ill-advised and could now trigger US sanctions against members of the government.

“Our economy is so vulnerable… We do not have a luxury to try to grandstand globally,” he said.

– Geopolitics –

In the longer term, the war is bound to play into the shifting geopolitics of the region, which have seen Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and others expand their reach into Africa — building ports and infrastructure, supplying drones, establishing military bases and drilling for oil, especially in East Africa.

Gulf powers have been accused of fomenting conflict in places like Sudan, Ethiopia and Somalia, and so some hope the new war may have positive consequences.

“A UAE forced to concentrate on defending its own airspace and territory may reduce its footprint in African conflicts, creating space for African-led peace processes to function more effectively,” said SBM Intelligence.

AFP

The Independent National Electoral Commission has raised concern over what it described as “unnecessary litigations” and persistent internal leadership crises within political parties.

It warned that the trend is undermining its commitment to democratic consolidation.

The Chairman of the commission, Prof Joash Amupitan (SAN), expressed concern on Wednesday at a technical workshop on the revision of INEC regulations and guidelines for political parties, organised in partnership with the Westminster Foundation for Democracy, in Ikot Ekpene, Akwa Ibom State.

The technical workshop was organised to align party guidelines with changes introduced in the Electoral Act 2026 (as amended).

The National Assembly passed the Electoral Act on February 18, 2026, and it was signed into law by President Bola Tinubu on February 19, 2026.

Amupitan, speaking at the event, lamented that rather than serving as vehicles for national transformation, political parties were witnessing a disturbing pattern of leadership disputes and internal conflicts.

“Our collective commitment is being challenged by leadership squabbles and judicialised politics.

“In the last cycle alone, INEC was joined in scores of suits that could have been avoided by simple adherence to party constitutions.

“As an independent body, we remain neutral, but we are no longer passive observers,” he said.

Amupitan added, “Political parties in Nigeria face a crisis of internal democracy. Of grave concern is the quality of party primaries.

“As we move towards the primary window of April 23 to May 30, 2026, we must enforce a level playing field.

“The quality of internal party democracy has a direct bearing on the secondary election conducted by INEC.”

The commission boss also lamented the trend of leadership squabbles and infighting in political parties.

“We are currently witnessing a disturbing trend of leadership squabbles and infighting that threaten to turn political parties into theatres of permanent strife rather than vehicles for national development.

“These frequent leadership tussles do more than dilute party ideologies; they spill over into our courtrooms, resulting in a deluge of unnecessary litigations where INEC is routinely joined as a party.

“Each day spent defending these intra-party disputes is a day diverted from our primary mandate of election planning,” he added.

The INEC chairman expressed confidence that the workshop would analyse key provisions of the new Electoral Act and identify necessary amendments to existing regulations and guidelines for political parties.

In his goodwill message, the Country Director of the Westminster Foundation for Democracy, Adebowale Olorunmola, said the guidelines must be strengthened to align with changes introduced in the new Electoral Act.

“The 2022 edition of the INEC Regulations and Guidelines served us well in the conduct of the 2023 general elections and subsequent elections.

“However, current realities are no longer what they were four years ago. Today, we are tasked with bridging the gap between the letter of the 2026 Act and the practical, day-to-day operations of our political parties,” he said.

Earlier, the Resident Electoral Commissioner in Akwa Ibom State, Obo Efanga (SAN), described the workshop as strategic and timely, noting that the review of the Regulations and Guidelines for Political Parties, 2022, was necessary to reflect the provisions of the Electoral Act 2026.

Efanga explained that the document regulates the registration, statutory compliance, administration, conduct and monitoring of political parties and their activities, making its review essential to strengthening the electoral process.

punch.ng

FOLLOW US ON:

FACEBOOK

TWITTER

PINTEREST

TIKTOK

YOUTUBE

LINKEDIN

TUMBLR

INSTAGRAM

Interested individuals are already jostling for the seat of the Minister of Power, as the current minister, Adebayo Adelabu, prepares to contest the Oyo State governorship election, The PUNCH has learnt.

This is even as stakeholders urged President Bola Tinubu to appoint a technocrat as his replacement.

Barring any last-minute change of plans, Adelabu is expected to resign his appointment in the coming weeks to vie for the Oyo governorship ticket under the All Progressives Congress.

According to the new Electoral Act 2026 and the revised timetable released by the Independent National Electoral Commission, the conduct of party primaries, including the resolution of disputes arising from them, will commence on April 23 and end on May 30, 2026.

During an engagement with stakeholders in the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry in Lagos towards the end of last year, Adelabu had hinted that he would love to achieve some feats “before I leave office”.

Some aides of the minister confided in our correspondent that Adelabu made the remark because he has the intention to contest the governorship race in Oyo State.

In a trending video in October 2025, Adelabu formally declared his intention to run for governor in Oyo, recalling how he lost to the incumbent Governor Seyi Makinde in 2019 and 2023.

“I have now paid my dues. I contested against Seyi (Makinde) in 2019. In 2023, I also contested against Seyi, then as the sitting governor. But in 2027, God has shown that it’s our turn. It’s Adelabu’s turn. Anything that belongs to Adelabu belongs to us all,” he said last year.

Contacted about when the minister is likely to resign, his media aide, Bolaji Tunji, said the president had not directed cabinet members with political ambitions to step down.

“We need to await development, as I am not sure the President has said those with political ambition should resign,” Tunji told our correspondent.

Our correspondent gathered that individuals interested in Adelabu’s job are already lobbying the presidency, knowing full well that he would resign to pursue his gubernatorial ambitions.

Meanwhile, stakeholders appealed to Tinubu to ensure he puts a round peg in a round hole, saying the new minister must be a technocrat.

Speaking with our correspondent, a power sector expert, Bode Fadipe, advised the president to appoint a technocrat as Adelabu’s replacement.

According to Fadipe, anybody to replace Adelabu should be someone with knowledge of the power sector and one who has a national agenda instead of self-interests.

“My choice will be a technocrat who has knowledge of the power sector and whose agenda is national rather than personal interest,” Fadipe stated.

Also, the Convener of PowerUp Nigeria, Adetayo Adegbemle, said whoever is appointed to replace Adelabu, if he eventually resigns, must have a clear understanding of the assignment.

Adegbemle argued that such a person must understand the challenges of the power sector and must have demonstrated that understanding prior to appointment.

He stated that before the inauguration of the Tinubu government, he had published an agenda that spoke directly to the challenges of the power sector, and when Adelabu was appointed as the power minister, he believed that his background in the finance sector would be a benefit to the power sector.

“Prior to the inauguration of Tinubu’s first term, I wrote and published an agenda that spoke directly to the challenges of the power sector, and when this present minister was appointed, I believed his background in the finance sector would have been of benefit.

“However, ministerial appointments being majorly political, I would expect that anyone being appointed should have a clear understanding of the assignment on hand, understand the challenges of the power sector, and have displayed this understanding before being appointed,” he said.

The PowerUp Nigeria convener added that the next minister should reduce political interference in the sector, saying the minister should not play politics with issues affecting the sector.

“I would also expect that such a person be able to play less politics with the power sector, as it is clearly our path to industrialisation, creation of jobs, and basically, an economy-oriented decision that is able to see the office and power sector as economy-driving ones,” Adegbemle advised.

A professor of energy, Dayo Ayoade, argued that Adelabu’s replacement should not be someone with political ambition. He appealed to the president to consider a technocrat with solid knowledge of that power sector.

“The sector is collapsing; we need a technocrat. We need someone who can manage the crisis that we are in,” the don said.

But in a dissenting voice, the coordinator of the Electricity Consumers Forum, Adeola Samuel-Ilori, said that the ministry should be run by the Permanent Secretary till next year.

“He (Tinubu) should let the ministry be run by the permanent secretary till next year when the election will be done and a new cabinet formed if he wins,” Samuel-Ilori said.

According to him, the ministry has always been on autopilot. “The man (Adelabu) was and is still a banker, not an engineer. I think his appointment was for political patronage and reward, even though another ministry would have been better for such consideration, but it’s a big gamble; hence, no minister should be employed once he resigns except if the man has no name to protect, because there is nothing on the ground for such an appointee to do,” Samuel-Ilori stated.

Adelabu, a former Deputy Governor (Operations) at the Central Bank of Nigeria, was appointed by Tinubu in 2023 to oversee the country’s deteriorating power ministry. His appointment generated reactions from some stakeholders who argued that he lacked the technical expertise to manage a sector as critical as power.

However, the Oyo-born politician maintained at the time that he was appointed to reform the power sector and not to operate as an engineer or a technician. Adelabu is expected to resign his ministerial appointment soon if he proceeds with his bid for the Oyo governorship race.

punch.ng

FOLLOW US ON:

FACEBOOK

TWITTER

PINTEREST

TIKTOK

YOUTUBE

LINKEDIN

TUMBLR

INSTAGRAM