Unlike Lagos, Ogun and Oyo where quiet moves toward consensus candidates are emerging, deep-rooted rivalries, competing power blocs and zoning disputes threaten to derail any similar arrangement in Kwara State, DARE AKOGUN and TOYEEB OMOTAYO write

As Nigeria’s ruling party quietly experiments with consensus candidacy in parts of the South-West, the situation in Kwara State presents a sharp contrast one defined by intense internal rivalry, overlapping interests and a political culture resistant to easy compromise.

The PUNCH reported on Tuesday that the All Progressives Congress was exploring consensus arrangements in Lagos, Ogun and Oyo states in n the western part of the country, with names such as Obafemi Hamzat, Olamilekan Adeola (Yayi), and Sharafadeen Alli said to be favoured after high-level consultations involving President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and party stakeholders.

The consensus model, long preferred within the APC for its ability to minimise internal conflict and project unity, has been credited with stabilising party structures in several states.

However, attempts to replicate such arrangement in Kwara are already running into turbulence.

Investigations by The PUNCH reveal that unlike the relatively coordinated South-West political machinery, Kwara APC is grappling with deep-seated factional interests, personal ambitions and ideological divides that may make consensus not only difficult but potentially destabilising.

Illusion of consensus

At first glance, the idea of a consensus candidate appears attractive.

It reduces the cost of primaries, prevents post-primary litigation and allows the party to rally early behind a single flagbearer.

It also aligns with the Electoral Act provisions that permit political parties to adopt consensus arrangements.

But in Kwara, insiders say the situation is far more complicated.

A chieftain of the APC in the state Alhaji Babatunde Waheed said it will be difficult for anyone to impose a consesus candidate on the party without protest.

“There is no single power centre that can impose consensus without resistance.

“Every major aspirant has a structure, and more importantly, has backers who are unwilling to step down,” he said.

This is where Kwara diverges sharply from Lagos or Ogun, where political hierarchies are more clearly defined and largely aligned with presidential influence.

In Kwara APC, at least four distinct power blocs are already jostling for control of the party’s 2027 governorship ticket.

At the centre is Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, whose incumbency gives him significant leverage in shaping succession dynamics.

Then comes the silence influence of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, whose names many aspirants have thrown around and political calculations in the North-Central may not necessarily align with local preferences.

A third bloc comprises established politicians and aspirants figures like Saliu Mustapha, Yahaya Seriki who both contested with the current governor in 2019 who actively has a long standing   grassroots and elite alliances.

The fourth bloc includes legacy political structures like former APC chairman in the state Hon. Bashir Bolarinwa and opposition forces linked to Bukola Saraki, whose shadow continues to loom over the state’s political landscape.

The coexistence of these competing centres of influence has created a volatile environment where consensus is easier proposed than achieved.

Governor vs Aspirants

At the heart of the unfolding drama is the question of who controls the APC structure in Kwara.

While Governor AbdulRazaq is expected to play a major role in determining his successor, several aspirants are already positioning themselves as independent power centres.

Speculation about the governor’s alleged preference for the Speaker of the State House of Assembly, Salihu Danladi, has further complicated matters.

Although the  Governor, has dismissed speculations that he has endorsed or promised to anoint a successor ahead of the 2027 governorship race, insisting that the All Progressives Congress will conduct an open and merit-based primary.

The governor spoke in Ilorin at the State Congress of the APCbhekd in March, amid growing political rumours that he had concluded plans to back a candidate from Kwara North Senatorial District to succeed him.

“For those who will contest and whoever eventually emerges, it is not about anyone anointing anybody.

“We are not here to build a dynasty; we are here to build a legacy. Whoever succeeds me will build on this foundation and strive to do better,” he said

For supporters of other aspirants, such a reassurance does not hold water as it is believed that there is as an attempt to impose a candidate an idea that clashes with the post-2019 political consciousness in Kwara.

A senior party stakeholder who doesn’t want one named said the ‘Otógé’ movement was about ending imposition.

“If the party goes back to that, it could create serious internal crisis,” he said.

This tension reflects a broader dilemma: how to balance incumbency influence with internal democracy.

Battle lines drawn

Unlike in Lagos where consensus discussions reportedly followed consultations among stakeholders, Kwara’s aspirants are already locked in subtle but intense competition.

Supporters of leading contenders have taken positions, often engaging in behind-the-scenes lobbying, media campaigns and grassroots mobilisation.

Senator Saliu Mustapha’s recent outreach efforts including donations beyond his senatorial district are widely interpreted as strategic moves to consolidate support.

Similarly, Yahaya Seriki’s philanthropic engagements and donations during the just concluded Ramadan have strengthened his political visibility and grassroots appeal.

Senator Sadiq Umar also recently  organized a football competition on Kwara central recently which is seen as many as trying to make in roads into the central senatorial districts.

Other aspirants, including party loyalists and technocrats, are also building alliances quietly.

A political observer Ranti Adesola said the result is a crowded field where each camp believes it has a legitimate claim to the ticket.

“In this kind of environment, asking people to step down for consensus is not realistic, as everyone believes he stands the better chance of emerging the candidate.

“We are back to the same scenario in 2019 where all the gladiators didn’t stepped down for each other and also went to claim victory after the primaries, which the result was not announced until three days in Abuja, “ she said.

Zoning

If internal rivalry is one challenge, zoning is another major obstacle to consensus.

Kwara North’s long-standing demand for the governorship has gained renewed momentum ahead of 2027.

Leaders from the region argue that since the brief tenure of Shaaba Lafiagi in the early 1990s, Kwara North has been largely excluded from power.

For them, zoning is not just a political strategy it is a matter of equity and justice.

However, this position is strongly contested by stakeholders from Kwara Central, the state’s political and demographic stronghold.

Given that Kwara Central and Kwara South accounts for a significant share of the state’s voting strength, many argue that zoning the ticket away from the region could weaken the APC’s electoral chances.

This argument has been echoed by figures like Professor Abubakar Suleiman, who warned against repeating what he described as the PDP’s miscalculation in 2023.

The clash between zoning advocates and merit proponents has created a deep fault line within the party one that consensus alone may not easily resolve.

Tinubu factor

While President Tinubu’s influence is expected to be significant, analysts say it may not be absolute in Kwara.

A political analyst, Segun Adeola, said in the South-West, Tinubu’s political authority is largely uncontested, making it easier to broker consensus among stakeholders.

“In Kwara, although he is the President and leader of the party in the country, nevertheless his influence and foot soldiers must contend with local dynamics, entrenched interests and competing loyalties.

“Tinubu can guide, but he cannot outrightly dictate in Kwara the way he might in Lagos.

“Moreover, recent developments suggest that even in the South-West, the consensus narrative is not without controversy,” he said.

Lessons from the West

The emerging consensus model in Lagos, Ogun and Oyo offers important lessons but also highlights the uniqueness of Kwara.

In those states, the process whether fully agreed or still evolving has been driven by structured consultations, strong party leadership and a shared interest in maintaining unity.

In Kwara, however, the absence of a single dominant structure means that consensus, if pursued, would require extensive negotiations, concessions and possibly compensations.

As one party insider put it: “Consensus is easy when everyone agrees. In Kwara, the challenge is that everyone believes they should be the consensus”.

On one hand, consensus offers a pathway to unity and early mobilisation.

On the other, the realities of internal competition, zoning disputes and multiple power centres make such an arrangement difficult to implement.

For now, consultations are ongoing, alliances are shifting and ambitions remain firmly intact.

Even then, there is no guarantee of success.

The biggest risk facing the APC in Kwara is not just the difficulty of achieving consensus but the possibility that attempts to enforce it could deepen internal divisions.

In several states, contentious primaries and imposition of candidates have led to defections, parallel structures and electoral losses.

With the opposition Peoples Democratic Party still a formidable force under Saraki’s influence, any internal crisis within the APC could prove costly.

What is clear, however, is that unlike Lagos, Ogun and Oyo, where consensus may be gradually taking shape, Kwara’s path to a candidate is likely to be far more turbulent.

In the end, the question is not whether the APC will attempt a consensus in Kwara but whether the state’s complex political ecosystem will allow it.

That reality may ultimately define not just the APC’s internal dynamics, but the outcome of the 2027 governorship election itself.

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President Bola Tinubu and members of his cabinet, as well as 32 state governors and 8,453 delegates from across the country, are expected to participate in the National Convention of the All Progressives Congress (APC) scheduled for Friday (today) and Saturday in Abuja.

In addition, top party chieftains from the national, zonal, state and ward levels will also grace the convention, where new leaders of the party will emerge.

The Co-Chairman of the Media sub-committee for the Convention and Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris, revealed this during the APC World Media Briefing held at the Transcorp Hilton, Abuja, on Thursday.

Those in attendance include the Minister of Arts, Culture, Tourism and Creative Economy, Hannatu Musawa; the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo; Pius Ayim, Vice Chairman of the Central Committee; Special Adviser to the President on Media and Public Communication, Chief Sunday Dare; Special Adviser on Information and Strategy, Mr Bayo Onanuga; and other top party chieftains.

Idris explained that the convention theme, ‘Unity in Progress: Consolidating the Renewed Hope Agenda,’ succinctly captures the party’s identity, its journey so far, and future direction.

He stated, “The convention hopes to bring together delegates from across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory for policy engagement, leadership elections, and a formal transition to a new set of party executives, presenting both decision-making platforms and also a moment of reflection, consolidation, and direction-setting for the next phase of our journey.

“We are expecting a total of 8,453 delegates. These are the delegates that we are expecting to come from across the 36 states of the Federation to Abuja.

“The forthcoming National Convention marks another milestone in our journey, reflecting both the continuity of our values and the renewal of our leadership. It offers an opportunity to highlight the party’s achievements under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and to show how his guiding vision is being transformed into tangible outcomes for Nigerians.’’

He continued, “The Renewed Hope Agenda remains central. It guides policy direction, national development, and engagement with Nigerians’ aspirations. The convention is, therefore, also an opportunity to deepen this agenda within our leadership and institutional structure, ensuring that the party and government remain aligned in purpose.”

The minister emphasised that the APC would remain a broad-based political platform that embraces diverse viewpoints while upholding unity of purpose, noting that this diversity is a strength, grounded in dedication to progress and national development.

He added, “All arrangements have therefore been concluded for a smooth, transparent, and credible convention at the iconic Eagle Square here in Abuja, as stated in the official notices that we have provided.

‘’All the committees that have been set up by the party have finalised their assignments and operational systems to ensure smooth coordination, efficiency, and order. Every detail has been attended to so that the convention proceeds without avoidable disruption.”

In his remarks, the Chairman of the APC National Convention Central Coordinating Committee, former Katsina State Governor Aminu Masari, stated that the party operates according to its zoning arrangements and confirmed that they were not aware of any litigation affecting the convention.

Masari explained that the 25 sub-committees are so far satisfied with all that has been done.

“We assure Nigerians and even those outside Nigeria that the APC is very ready for the 2026 convention, which will start in the early hours of tomorrow (today).”

In response to questions on litigation over zoning, the chairman of the APC National Convention Central Coordinating Committee stated that the ruling party is a responsible political organisation in Nigeria, noting that, in accordance with federal character, all offices were zoned.

“Like I said, and I will repeat, APC is a responsible party in Nigeria. In line with federal character, all offices are zoned. If you come to buy a form, and you are buying a form, only buy the form zoned to your zone.

‘’When there is zoning in A, and you are in Z, and you want to buy a form in A, we suspect that you are only there to create confusion. So, who likes confusion? The way our country is, the structures of the party are on a zonal basis. The NWC members are distributed according to zones.’’

“So, if you are contesting for an office that is not zoned to your zone, how can you say you are being democratic? We suspect that these kinds of people are interested, maybe as agents, to come and destroy our party, which we will not agree to. And I know Nigerians will not agree.

“We are not aware that anybody has gone to court. We have not been served. I am sure you know we are a responsible party. If we are served, we will take notice of that. Can you pay for something that you don’t have? You can only hold something that you have,” he stressed.

Ahead of the convention, some party members had accused the ruling party of excluding them from the contest.

A  party chieftain, Fubara Dagogo, filed a complaint at the Federal High Court in Abuja, protesting his exclusion from the South-South Zonal Congress held in Asaba on Wednesday, 25th March 2026, despite fulfilling all constitutional requirements, including paying N5.1 million for the nomination form.

Additionally, Paul Oyiborume made similar allegations against the party leadership, although he has not yet approached the court.

Speaking to The PUNCH on Thursday night, Dagogo said he would seek redress through the party’s internal mechanism.

Dagogo also said that, though the party has yet to reach out to him, he would not be seeking an injunction to stop the convention.

“At the moment, I’m still exploring internal party mechanisms to resolve the issue. I believe the issue will be looked into and justice will take its course because the party’s internal mechanism is key to conflict resolution.

“Inasmuch as one feels displeasure or feels things are not in accordance with what the Constitution says, one has to look at where one can express one’s displeasure. So, I believe that the party mechanism is looking into the issues for justice to take its course.”

Kefas reacts

However, the Taraba State Governor and Chairman of the All Progressives Congress National Convention Appeals Committee, Agbu Kefas, expressed confidence that the convention would proceed smoothly.

Speaking on Thursday night after the committee’s meeting, Kefas added that they were fully prepared to handle any unforeseen developments.

He stated, “I don’t think we are envisaging any problem, but we always have to be prepared. These are processes and procedures for this kind of election.

“We are going to the convention, and you cannot completely rule out anything. But with what we have done so far, I think we will have a very hitch-free exercise.”

Work from home

The Federal Government has directed civil servants working within the Federal Secretariat in Abuja to work from home today as party leaders, delegates, and supporters from across the country descend on Eagle Square.

The convention is a key event where party officials are expected to deliberate on internal matters and set the tone for future political activities, including preparations ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The directive was contained in a circular issued and signed by Abdul S. U. Garba, Permanent Secretary, Service Welfare Office, for the Head of the Civil Service of the Federation.

According to the circular, all access roads leading to and around the Federal Secretariat Complex, Phases I, II and III, will be closed from Friday, March 27, to Saturday, March 28, 2026.

“All Ministries, Extra-Ministerial Departments, Agencies and Offices located within the Federal Secretariat, Phases I, II & III are hereby informed of the closure of all access roads leading to and around the said Federal Secretariat Complex, from Friday, 27th to Saturday, 28th March, 2026,” the statement read.

The government explained that the measure was necessitated by the use of Eagle Square for the APC national convention.

“This is due to the use of Eagle Square for the National Convention of the All Progressives Congress  on the said dates,” the circular stated.

It further directed that workers in affected offices should stay off-site on the specified day.

“Accordingly, all personnel whose offices are located within Phases I, II and III of the Federal Secretariat Complex, as well as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, are to work from home on Friday, 27th March, 2026,” it added.

The government also tasked heads of ministries, departments and agencies to ensure strict compliance with the directive.

“All concerned Permanent Secretaries and Heads of Agencies are kindly requested to bring the content of this Circular to the attention of their staff, and ensure strict compliance,” the circular stated.

Meanwhile, workers were seen decorating Eagle Square, the convention venue, while most roads leading to the venue are decorated with billboards welcoming delegates to the convention.

Less than 24 hours to the convention, hotels and guesthouses in the FCT have recorded high patronage as delegates and party faithful besieged the capital city.

Checks by our correspondents indicate that all the top hotels, including Transcorp Hilton, NICON Luxury, Hotel Continental, Reiz Hotel and others have been fully booked.

Also, budget hotels whose rooms go for between N50,000 and N80,000 recorded high patronage, with many delegates having to settle for guest houses outside the city centre.