The United States reduced its purchase of Nigerian crude oil sharply in January 2026, with imports dropping by about 47.16 per cent month-on-month, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Figures from the U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report indicate that U.S. crude imports from Nigeria fell to 1.664 million barrels in January 2026, down from 3.149 million barrels recorded in December 2025. This represents a decline of 1.485 million barrels within one month, showing a significant contraction in Nigeria’s share of the U.S. crude market.

In value terms, the drop was equally steep. The customs value of Nigerian crude imports declined from $217.36m in December to $115.99m in January, while the cost, insurance, and freight value fell from $223.10m to $118.95m over the same period. The difference between the two measures reflects additional costs such as shipping and insurance included in CIF values, which are excluded from customs valuation.

This means that in January, the CIF value of Nigerian crude was about $2.96m higher than its customs value, compared to a wider gap of about $5.74m in December. The narrowing gap suggests relatively lower freight or insurance costs, or shorter shipping distances within the period.

The contraction comes amid a broader slowdown in total U.S. crude imports, which declined from 198.29 million barrels in December to 188.21 million barrels in January, representing a drop of about 5.1 per cent. Total import value also fell, with customs value decreasing from $11.41bn to $10.56bn, while CIF value dropped from $12.04bn to $11.15bn.

Within Africa, Nigeria lost ground to some peers. While total African crude exports to the U.S. remained flat at 6.933 million barrels, Angola recorded a sharp increase, rising from 575,000 barrels in December to 2.062 million barrels in January.

Ghana also emerged as a new supplier with 738,000 barrels, having recorded no measurable exports in December. By contrast, Libya saw its exports to the U.S. decline from 2.137 million barrels to 1.086 million barrels over the period.

Nigeria’s share of total U.S. crude imports also weakened. The country accounted for roughly 0.88 per cent of total U.S. crude imports in January, down from about 1.59 per cent in December, reflecting the sharp reduction in volumes.

Further analysis of U.S. trade data shows that crude oil remains the dominant component of Nigeria’s exports to the United States. Total U.S. imports from Nigeria stood at $183m in January 2026, compared to $297m in December 2025.

With crude oil imports valued at $115.99m (customs basis) and $118.95m on a CIF basis, crude accounted for approximately 63.4 per cent to 65.0 per cent of total U.S. imports from Nigeria in January. This compares with about 73.2 per cent in December on a customs basis, indicating a relative moderation in crude dominance as overall imports declined.

The PUNCH further observed that the U.S. recorded a goods trade surplus of $419m with Nigeria in January, up from $84m in December. This was driven by a rise in U.S. exports to Nigeria, which increased from $381m to $602m, even as imports from Nigeria declined.

Across Africa, the U.S. posted a trade deficit of $503m in January, reversing a $174m surplus recorded in December. Total U.S. imports from Africa rose from $2.88bn to $3.54bn, while exports to the region edged slightly lower from $3.05bn to $3.04bn.

The PUNCH earlier reported that Nigeria accounted for about 52 per cent of Africa’s crude oil exports to the United States in 2025. According to the previous report, total U.S. crude imports from Africa stood at 89.371 million barrels in 2025, down from 103.631 million barrels in 2024, representing a decline of 14.26 million barrels or 13.8 per cent.

Out of the 89.371 million barrels imported from Africa in 2025, Nigeria supplied 46.618 million barrels, compared to 50.793 million barrels in 2024. This was a drop of 4.175 million barrels or 8.2 per cent year on year.

Despite the lower volume, Nigeria’s share of Africa’s crude exports to the U.S. rose. In 2025, Nigeria’s 46.618 million barrels accounted for 52.2 per cent of Africa’s total shipments, up from 49.0 per cent in 2024, when it exported 50.793 million barrels out of the continent’s 103.631 million barrels.

The PUNCH earlier reported that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited recorded a profit after tax of N385bn in January 2026, even as crude oil and condensate production rose to 1.64 million barrels per day, according to the firm’s latest monthly operational report.

The January 2026 NNPC Monthly Report Summary, released on Monday, showed that the state-owned energy company generated N2.571tn in revenue during the month while remitting N726bn as statutory payments to the Federation.

This means the company recorded a sharp 47 per cent decline in its monthly revenue, which fell from N4.82tn in December 2025 to N2.57tn in January 2026. This contraction occurred despite a marginal increase in the company’s after-tax profit.

It disclosed that Nigeria produced 1.64 million barrels per day, up from 1.55 million barrels per day recorded in December 2025. This represents an increase of 0.09mbpd, or about 5.8 per cent month-on-month.

The PUNCH observed that the decline in crude exports to the U.S. occurred despite higher production. The trade outcomes come against the backdrop of renewed US protectionist rhetoric and tariff-focused trade policies associated with US President Donald Trump, which have influenced sourcing decisions, pricing structures, and trade flows globally.

Last year, Donald Trump signed an executive order raising Nigeria’s tariff rate from 14 per cent to 15 per cent, with Washington implementing its “reciprocal” tariff regime.

The order, issued in late July, took effect on August 7, 2025. Although crude oil has been exempted in several cases, the higher duty applies directly to a wide range of non-oil Nigerian exports, creating uncertainty for American importers and dampening demand ahead of and after the effective date.

With crude oil exports largely exempted from the new tariff regime, non-oil exports appear to have borne the brunt of the disruption.

A renowned economist and Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, downplayed the impact of the U.S. tariffs on Nigeria.

“Our trade with the US is not that strategic. When anything goes wrong, it is not as if it can have any fundamental effect on our economy. Our trade exposure to them is very limited,” Yusuf explained.

He noted that Nigerian exports to the US are dominated by crude oil and a handful of other commodities, such as fertilisers, making the country’s trade profile narrow and underdeveloped in non-oil areas. Yusuf added that Nigeria’s tariff exposure is relatively moderate compared with other countries.

However, he identified another challenge beyond tariffs: US visa policy. “The bigger challenge for Nigeria’s trade relationship with the US is Washington’s visa policy. Barriers to travel limit business interactions and investment inflows. That is more critical than tariffs in the long run,” he said.

Since its inception, the Trump administration has steadily rolled out a series of visa restrictions and travel bans targeting Nigeria and several other countries.

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) has unveiled plans to grow Nigeria’s gas reserves from 210 trillion cubic feet (tcf) to 600 tcf, while attracting approximately $60 billion in investments into the sector.

According to NNPC’s X handle on Friday, the disclosure came from NNPC’s Executive Vice President for Gas, Power & New Energy, Olalekan Ogunleye, during the CERAWeek energy conference by S&P Global in Houston. Speaking on a panel titled “The New Gas Order: Market Depth and the Reshaping of Global Trade”, Ogunleye emphasized Nigeria’s strategic position in the global gas market.

“With the ongoing Strait of Hormuz shipping constraints stemming from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Nigeria is uniquely positioned to become a major supplier of LNG and gas-based industries,” Ogunleye said. “Our abundant gas resources, combined with our proximity to key markets, give Nigeria a competitive advantage in the global energy landscape.”

Ogunleye outlined the key deliverables of the NNPC Gas Master Plan, noting, “We aim to move Nigeria’s validated gas reserves from 210.5 tcf to an estimated potential of 600 tcf.”

“Our goal is to increase gas production volumes from 7.4 billion standard cubic feet per day (bscfd) to 12 bscfd by 2030, exceeding the Federal Government’s mandate for 62% growth.”

“We are committed to attracting $60 billion in additional investments into the gas sector through commercial incentives and strategic partnerships,” Ogunleye averred.

He stressed that the Gas Master Plan is grounded in disciplined execution rather than ambition alone. “This plan is neither aspirational nor theoretical.

“Its success depends on applying execution discipline to our annual work plans to ensure we meet—and surpass—our gas development growth targets,” the executive vice president for AGS, power & new energy said.

With these strategic moves, Nigeria is positioning itself to play a more significant role in global LNG supply and the gas-based industrial sector, leveraging both its natural resources and geographic advantage.

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Nigeria loses about N40tn annually to poor electricity supply, the Nigerian Independent System Operator, an agency of the Federal Government, has said, warning that unreliable power remains one of the biggest constraints to economic growth, industrial productivity, and job creation in the country.

The system operator noted that persistent outages continue to impose high costs on businesses and households, many of which are forced to generate their own electricity.

According to the organisation, reliable electricity remains one of Nigeria’s most important economic priorities, stressing that power outages cost Nigeria up to $29bn annually.

Converted at the prevailing exchange rate of N1,385 to a dollar, this translates to roughly N40.1tn in yearly losses to the economy. The operator added that the burden extends across all sectors, stating that businesses, manufacturers, and households spend billions each year generating their own electricity.

“Reliable electricity is one of Nigeria’s most important economic priorities. Power outages cost Nigeria an estimated $29bn annually. Businesses, manufacturers, and households spend billions each year generating their own electricity,” the system operator said in its latest industry report.

It emphasised that a stable power supply would unlock economic opportunities, noting that “a stable national grid unlocks economic growth, industrial productivity, and job creation”.

Despite the huge demand, the organisation said Nigeria generates significantly more electricity than is ultimately delivered to consumers due to structural bottlenecks across the value chain.

It disclosed that Nigeria generates approximately 45,000 to 50,000 megawatts of electricity daily, but the grid only takes 5,000 megawatts, which is about 10 per cent of total generation. “Nigeria generates approximately 45-50 GW of electricity daily, far more electricity than the grid can deliver. Yet only about 5GW currently reaches the national grid,” it said.

The operator attributed the shortfall to multiple challenges, saying, “The gap reflects constraints across the value chain, including transmission capacity limitations, distribution network constraints, and gas supply disruption.”

To address these issues, the system operator outlined its responsibilities, noting that NISO’s mandate is to strengthen grid reliability and accountability. It added that its duties include enforcing the national grid code, strengthening system dispatch and reliability, improving sector transparency and accountability, and supporting coordination across the electricity value chain.

The organisation stressed the urgency of reforms, stating that a stable national grid is essential for Nigeria’s economic future. It also quoted its board chairman, Adesegun Akin-Olugbade, as saying, “Electricity is, after all, a 19th-century technology, and we do not need rocket scientists to fix these problems.”

Making recommendations, the operator said the way forward is to digitalise the grid, strengthen infrastructure, diversify the energy mix, and enforce grid code compliance.

On the feats recorded in the past year of NISO’s creation, the organisation pointed to ongoing improvements in transmission infrastructure, noting that 82 new power transformers were commissioned between 2024 and 2025. It added that 8,500+ MVA additional transformer capacity had been added, while over 30 transmission projects were completed.

According to the operator, the national grid wheeling capacity now stands at approximately 8,700MW. The organisation further disclosed that the grid had recorded operational milestones in recent years, including a 5,802MW all-time peak generation in March 2025, a 129,370MWh record daily energy delivery, and 421 consecutive days without grid collapse during 2022–2023.

“These milestones demonstrate the potential of the system when operating conditions align,” it said.

The agency also highlighted progress in grid digitalisation through the SCADA/EMS programme, stating that there had been a “$1.16bn investment in grid digitalisation,” with over 3,000 kilometres of fibre optic network deployed and more than 100 substations equipped with SCADA technology, adding that the project had reached approximately 69 per cent completion.

It emphasised that improved monitoring would strengthen operations, noting that real-time monitoring enables faster decision-making and improved grid stability. The operator reiterated that bridging the gap between generation and delivery remains critical, stressing that Nigeria generates far more electricity than consumers receive, while transmission, distribution, and gas supply challenges continue to limit the amount of power that reaches the grid.

As Nigerians continue to grapple with widespread power outages blamed on gas constraints since the beginning of the year, the Transmission Company of Nigeria blamed multiple factors for low allocation, including generation companies’ output and requests by the DisCos. TCN said electricity load allocation to distribution companies is determined mainly by their daily requests.

So far, power generation has fallen far below 4,000MW, limiting the capacity of DisCos to supply electricity to their customers. Our correspondent reports that data from TCN’s distribution load profile as of 25 March 2026 showed that a paltry 2,908 megawatts was allocated to the 11 distribution companies.

While Nigerians experience persistent outages, several distribution companies keep apologising to customers and attributing the situation to reduced generation caused by gas constraints. The Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, also apologised on Tuesday, acknowledging the disruptions and assuring Nigerians that efforts were ongoing to stabilise supply in a few weeks.

The minister attributed current blackouts to gas supply constraints affecting 75 per cent of Nigeria’s gas-fired plants. “Even the best turbines cannot operate without raw materials. Global gas shortages due to the Middle East crisis, local supply obligations, outstanding payments to gas suppliers, and pipeline repairs have all contributed to the recent decline in generation,” he said.

According to him, only two out of 32 power plants currently have firm gas supply contracts, while the rest rely on irregular supplies on a best-effort basis.

Experts speak

A Professor of Energy, Dayo Ayoade of the University of Lagos, blamed corruption and poor governance for the country’s electricity woes. According to him, the economy will continue to lose money and will not develop “provided we don’t take control of the power sector”.

Ayoade said the economy will continue to suffer because self-generation is too costly for the common man and small businesses.

“Until the power sector is put right, the economy will continue to suffer, Nigerians will continue to suffer, and there is no way out of this. Self-generation doesn’t work because it’s inefficient. The kind of resources you need to generate power, like gas, are out of the hands of private individuals or companies. So, it is very important that the government takes the lead on this,” he stated.

The professor said the way forward is for the government to undertake holistic reforms of the sector, calling for the removal of electricity subsidies.

“That reform requires us to tell one another the truth. Nigerians will have to pay more money for power. Tariffs must reflect the cost of delivering electricity. Also, creating new institutions like GAMCO and others all the time means there is a proliferation of institutions in the sector. We need to streamline the sector; we need to control corruption,” he said.

Ayoade added that governance is key to the power sector. “One of the reasons the sector is not working is poor governance. Billions of dollars were spent on power in the past with no appreciable electricity. We can’t continue down that way. There are too many loopholes and leakages. We have to address this,” he submitted.

The convener of PowerUp, Adetayo Adegbemle, reiterated that the sector is bleeding because bulk power users have exited the grid, making cost recovery a burden. He said operators may not be able to boost power generation in the face of low recovery.

“We have allowed the big consumers to escape the national grid, pushing the load of sustaining it onto residential consumers. The tariff becomes more expensive for them, while producers continue to seek alternatives, albeit more costly. The Federal Government should, as a matter of urgency, reverse this trend to boost power supply,” he said.

Adegbemle also noted that the electricity subsidy is no longer sustainable, saying the government ought to have found a way out of the burden. He emphasised that the subsidy affects the entire value chain, as the Federal Government has failed to fulfil its subsidy obligations.

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