The Federal Government has stepped up engagement with the World Bank for a fresh $1.25bn loan to support economic reforms, job creation, and competitiveness, as findings by The PUNCH showed that the facility has reached a critical stage in the lender’s approval process.

The proposed loan, titled Nigeria Actions for Investment and Jobs Acceleration, is expected to be presented for approval on June 26, 2026, about six months and 21 days before the January 16, 2027, presidential election, according to the revised timetable of the Independent National Electoral Commission.

If approved, the loan will rank as the second-largest single World Bank facility secured under President Bola Tinubu, behind only the $1.5bn Reforms for Economic Stabilisation to Enable Transformation Development Policy Financing approved in June 2024.

At an exchange rate of N1,361.4 to the dollar, the proposed $1.25bn facility translates to about N1.70tn, showing the scale of external financing being pursued by the Federal Government amid ongoing economic reforms.

If approved and fully disbursed without any delay, the proposed $1.25bn World Bank loan, equivalent to about N1.70tn at an exchange rate of N1,361.4/$, will raise Nigeria’s external debt from N74.43tn ($51.86bn) as of December 31, 2025, to at least N76.13tn ($53.11bn).

The country’s total public debt would also rise from N159.28tn to at least N160.98tn. In dollar terms, Nigeria’s total public debt could rise from $110.97bn to about $112.22bn if the facility is eventually approved and fully disbursed.

Details of the facility were contained in a World Bank Programme Information Document obtained by The PUNCH on Monday, which showed that the loan has progressed beyond the initial concept and appraisal phases.

Crucially, The PUNCH confirmed that the operation is now at the decision meeting stage of the World Bank’s project cycle, a point at which the lender’s management reviews the final appraisal package and determines whether the project should proceed to the Board of Executive Directors for approval.

This stage typically comes after appraisal and negotiations have been substantially concluded, meaning that key policy actions, financing terms, and reform commitments have already been agreed in principle between the borrower and the World Bank team.

In the World Bank process, the decision meeting represents a near-final internal clearance, after which the project is prepared for formal Board consideration, where final approval is granted.

Supporting this position, the World Bank document stated, “The review did authorise the team to appraise and negotiate,” indicating that the project has successfully passed earlier internal checks and is advancing toward final approval.

The borrower is listed as the Federal Republic of Nigeria, while the Federal Ministry of Finance will serve as the implementing agency.

According to the World Bank, the loan is designed “to support the government’s efforts to expand access to finance, digital, and electricity services, and strengthen competitiveness through tax, trade, and agriculture reforms.”

The fresh borrowing move comes amid growing scrutiny of Nigeria’s rising reliance on multilateral financing under Tinubu. Findings showed that the World Bank has approved about $9.35bn in loans and credits for Nigeria between June 2023 and May 2026.

These approvals span multiple sectors, including power, education, healthcare, agriculture, social protection, renewable energy, MSME financing, and economic reform support. Key packages include the $2.25bn RESET and ARMOR reform financing in June 2024, $1.57bn for HOPE and SPIN programmes in September 2024, and $1.08bn for education and resilience programmes in March 2025.

If the proposed $1.25bn facility is approved next month, total World Bank approvals under Tinubu would rise to about $10.6bn, reinforcing the bank’s role as a major external financier for Nigeria’s reform agenda.

However, The PUNCH observed that many of the approved loans are not immediately disbursed, as fund releases are tied to the fulfilment of specific policy and reform conditions, often resulting in delays.

Govt warns

The Accountant-General of the Federation, Dr Shamseldeen Ogunjimi, earlier warned that Nigeria may reject loan facilities from the World Bank if delays in approval and disbursement persist, saying prolonged timelines could undermine the country’s willingness to proceed with such arrangements.

The warning was contained in a press statement last week by the Director of Press and Public Relations at the Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation, Bawa Mokwa.

Ogunjimi, who spoke in Abuja during a courtesy visit by a World Bank delegation led by Mrs Treed Lane, stressed that Nigeria expects timely processing of funding requests, given that the facilities are loans and not grants.

He said, “If approvals take more than six months, the Nigerian Government may no longer honour such arrangements,” highlighting concerns over bureaucratic delays in accessing development financing.

The AGF noted that as a responsible borrower, Nigeria should not be subjected to prolonged approval processes that could affect project execution timelines and broader development objectives. He therefore urged the World Bank to “expedite the approval and disbursement of project funds to Nigeria” to support the country’s priorities.

Ogunjimi emphasised that the loans carry repayment obligations, making it imperative that disbursement processes align with project schedules and fiscal planning frameworks.

However, the Senior External Affairs Officer at the World Bank, Mansir Nasir, earlier told The PUNCH that funds for projects financed by the institution were not disbursed at once but in instalments, depending on the nature of the project and financing instruments.

The PUNCH also reported that Nigeria’s debt to the World Bank rose by $2.08bn in one year to $19.89bn as of December 31, 2025, according to an analysis of external debt stock data released by the Debt Management Office.

The figure represents an 11.7 per cent increase from the $17.81bn owed to the global lender as of December 31, 2024. The World Bank debt comprises loans from the International Development Association and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

IDA provides concessional grants and loans to low-income countries, while IBRD provides financial products and policy advice mainly to middle-income and creditworthy developing countries.

DMO data showed that Nigeria’s IDA debt rose from $16.56bn in 2024 to $18.51bn in 2025, an increase of $1.94bn or 11.73 per cent. IBRD exposure also increased from $1.24bn to $1.38bn, representing an increase of $141.84m or 11.41 per cent.

The increase means World Bank loans accounted for 38.36 per cent of Nigeria’s total external debt stock of $51.86bn as of the end of 2025.

The proposed loan is aligned with the World Bank’s Country Partnership Framework and forms part of a broader package of interventions, including FINCLUDE, BRIDGE, AGROW, ARMOR, and DARES programmes.

According to the bank, the facility is expected to drive growth through multiple channels, including reduced food and input costs, improved agricultural productivity, expansion of digital services, deeper financial markets, increased private investment, improved electricity access, and stronger tax revenue mobilisation.

“The $1.25bn standalone operation builds on recent progress in restoring stability and underpins the Government’s shift toward an inclusive growth model,” the document stated.

Implementation of the programme will be coordinated by the Federal Ministry of Finance, working with key agencies including the Central Bank of Nigeria, Securities and Exchange Commission, National Agricultural Seed Council, Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission, and the Ministry of Power.

However, it warned that the operation carries significant risks. “Overall, the risk to this DPF is assessed as high. Political and governance risks are elevated ahead of the 2027 elections, with pressures that could delay or reverse sensitive reforms,” the bank stated.

Economists speak

Economists warn that the rising loan pipeline, while potentially beneficial for long-term development, could deepen fiscal pressures if not matched with stronger domestic revenue mobilisation and prudent expenditure management.

Lagos-based economist, Adewale Abimbola, reacting to the rising World Bank commitments to Nigeria, said loans from multilateral institutions such as the World Bank are largely concessionary, with interest rates typically below market levels and longer repayment tenors

He noted that the critical question is not whether Nigeria should be borrowing, but whether the loans are structured and deployed effectively. “If it’s concessionary and tied to viable projects with medium-term revenue prospects, I don’t think it’s a bad idea,” Abimbola explained. “Borrowing isn’t bad; what matters is utilisation.”

He stressed that the economic impact of such loans depends on how well they are channelled into projects that can generate sustainable growth, strengthen revenue, and improve public services over time.

Development economist and CEO of CSA Advisory, Dr Aliyu Ilias, has expressed strong reservations about Nigeria’s rising debt profile amid rising World Bank loans.

While acknowledging that borrowing is not inherently bad for an economy, he questioned the rationale for taking on more debt at a time when the government claims to have higher revenues.

Ilias pointed out that, following the removal of the fuel subsidy, Tinubu had announced increased revenue inflows, further suggesting that the government should be able to fund projects without resorting to heavy borrowing.

Economist and CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, stressed that borrowing should always be backed by sound economic reasoning and clear development priorities.

Yusuf emphasised that the key issue is debt sustainability, which depends primarily on the country’s revenue capacity to service its obligations.

Without a strong cash flow to meet repayment schedules, he warned, Nigeria risks falling into a vicious cycle of borrowing to service existing loans, perpetuating fiscal vulnerability. He said it is essential that projects funded by loans directly support the economy’s capacity to repay.

According to him, Nigeria should be cautious with foreign loans due to the exchange rate risks they pose, noting that domestic debt is generally easier to manage. Excessive foreign borrowing, he warned, could put pressure on the country’s reserves and further weaken the exchange rate.

He stressed that a disciplined approach to debt sustainability will be crucial for Nigeria to avoid long-term fiscal distress.

Debt outlook fragile

Meanwhile, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group has warned that Nigeria’s debt outlook remains fragile despite signs of surface-level improvement, stressing that underlying fiscal pressures are still elevated and could worsen with continued borrowing.

In its Debt Burden Monitor report released on Monday, the NESG said while headline indicators suggest some stabilisation, the country’s debt position remains “a nuanced but concerning picture” as structural weaknesses persist beneath the surface.

The group noted that Nigeria’s Debt Burden Index declined to 70.9 points in 2024 from 83.6 points in 2023, which could give the impression that debt stress is easing. However, it cautioned that the improvement was largely driven by a temporary moderation in debt service pressures rather than any real strengthening of fiscal capacity.

It further pointed out that public debt-to-GDP rose to 40.6 per cent in 2024, reflecting continued reliance on borrowing to finance fiscal deficits and weak revenue generation, highlighting what it described as persistent fiscal vulnerability.

According to the NESG, recent data reinforces concerns, as the Debt Burden Index remained elevated and volatile throughout 2025, fluctuating within a high-stress range and ending the year at an estimated 79.2 points.

“This pattern indicates that debt pressure has not structurally eased but instead fluctuates within a high-stress band,” the report stated.

The group added that the seeming improvement in conventional debt ratios masks deeper structural imbalances, noting that valuation effects, rather than genuine fiscal strengthening, were responsible for the changes.

It warned that Nigeria has not yet made a decisive shift toward debt sustainability, stressing that the economy remains in what it described as a “high-risk fiscal environment”.

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Oil prices stood at $104 on Monday as the United States and Iran failed to agree on a deal to end the war in the Middle East.

US President Donald Trump said on Monday that a ceasefire with Iran was “on life support” after he rejected Tehran’s response to a US peace proposal, fuelling concerns of a resumption of hostilities in the 10-week-old conflict that has killed thousands and disrupted vital energy flows following heightened tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Reuters, days after the US floated a proposal aimed at reopening negotiations, Iran on Sunday released a response focused on ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, where US ally Israel is fighting Iran-backed Hezbollah militants. The response was swiftly rejected by Trump.

Asked where the ceasefire stands, Trump told reporters on Monday, “I would call it the weakest right now, after reading that piece of garbage they sent us. I didn’t even finish reading it,” he said.

In its response, Iran was said to have also demanded compensation for war damage, emphasised its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, and called on the US to end its naval blockade, guarantee no further attacks, lift sanctions, and remove a ban on Iranian oil sales.

The US had proposed an end to fighting before starting talks on more contentious issues, including Iran’s nuclear programme.

Defending the stance, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, said, “Our demand is legitimate: demanding an end to the war, lifting the (US) blockade and piracy, and releasing Iranian assets that have been unjustly frozen in banks due to US pressure; safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz and establishing security in the region and Lebanon were other demands of Iran, which are considered a generous and responsible offer.”

Brent crude oil futures traded 2.7 per cent higher at around $104 a barrel as the deadlock kept the Strait of Hormuz under severe pressure. Before the war began on February 28, crude oil traded below $70 a barrel. The narrow waterway, used to carry one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas, has since become a central pressure point in the conflict.

Meanwhile, three tankers carrying crude exited the Strait of Hormuz last week and on Sunday, with trackers switched off to avoid Iranian attacks, shipping data from Kpler and LSEG showed on Monday, underscoring a rising trend affecting Middle East oil exports.

Two very large crude carriers, the Agios Fanourios I and the Kiara M, carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude each, passed through the strait on Sunday, the data showed.

The Agios Fanourios I is heading to Vietnam to discharge its cargo at the Nghi Son Refinery and Petrochemical facility on May 26, the data showed. The tanker failed to transit the strait in at least two previous attempts since it loaded Basrah medium crude on April 17, Reuters reports.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission remitted over N322bn and $116.9m into the Federation Account within two months following the implementation of Executive Order 9 signed in February 2026, documents presented at the Federation Account Allocation Committee meetings have shown.

The documents, obtained from presentations made by both agencies at the March and April FAAC meetings, indicated that the remittances followed the Federal Government’s directive mandating the full transfer of crude oil and gas revenues into the Federation Account.

The document for January 2026 remittance was not uploaded by the committee.

Executive Order 9, signed by President Bola Tinubu in February 2026, was introduced to strengthen transparency, improve revenue accountability, and boost inflows into the Federation Account at a time the government is grappling with fiscal pressures and rising expenditure demands.

According to the directive, the President invoked Section 5 of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (as amended), anchored on Section 44(3), which vests ownership and control of all minerals, mineral oils, and natural gas in the Government of the Federation.

Tinubu said excessive deductions, overlapping funds, and structural distortions in the oil and gas sector had weakened remittances to the Federation Account and warned that the practice must end to protect national revenue.

“For too long, excessive deductions, overlapping funds, and structural distortions in the oil and gas sector have weakened remittances to the Federation Account. When revenues meant for federal, state, and local governments are trapped in layers of charges and retention mechanisms, development suffers. That must end,” he said on his verified X handle.

Findings from the FAAC documents showed that the NNPC remitted a total of $29.28m and N42.64bn for March 2026 crude oil and gas receipts, which were shared in April 2026.

The national oil company stated in its presentation that “100 per cent of the total crude oil and gas receipts of $29,278,415.96 and N2,066,841,328.73 were remitted to the Federation in compliance with Executive Order 9 of February 2026.”

The document showed that the receipts came from multiple revenue streams, including Production Sharing Contract profits, crude oil exports, domestic crude sales to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, gas receipts, and miscellaneous crude and gas earnings.

A breakdown of the March remittance indicated that crude oil export earnings accounted for $25.7m, while PSC profits contributed $3.52m. On the naira side, crude oil export proceeds stood at N37.67bn, while miscellaneous crude revenue amounted to N42.64bn. Gas revenue contributed N34.47m.

The document further showed that PSC profit inflows were split between the Federation Sub-Account and the Federation Account in line with the statutory sharing formula.

According to the presentation, the Federation Sub-Account received 60 per cent of PSC profits, amounting to $11.71m and N826.74m, while the Federation Account received 40 per cent valued at $17.57m and N1.24bn.

The total transfer for the month stood at $29.28m and N42.64bn.

Similarly, the NNPC disclosed that for February 2026 receipts shared in March 2026, it remitted 100 per cent of crude oil and gas earnings totalling $87.63m and N121.34bn to the Federation Account.

The document stated, “Federation Accounts: 100 per cent of the total crude oil and gas receipts of $87,629,089.84 and N1,957,563,915.65 were remitted to the Federation.” The February figures represent significantly higher inflows compared to March, reflecting stronger crude oil and gas revenue performance during the period.

The figures equal $87.63m, and N121.34bn remitted for February 2026 receipts shared in March, as well as $29.28m and N42.64bn remitted for March 2026 receipts shared in April.

The FAAC documents also showed that the NUPRC separately remitted N34.2bn in March 2026 as revenue collections from royalties, gas flare penalties, concession rentals, and miscellaneous oil revenue.

According to the commission’s presentation, the remittance was made in compliance with its statutory obligation to transfer all collectable upstream petroleum revenues into the Federation Account.

The document read, “This report is a summary of royalties (oil and gas), gas flared penalty, rents, and miscellaneous oil revenue collected by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission and remitted to the Federation Account as statutorily mandated.”

A breakdown of the NUPRC collections showed that oil and gas royalties generated N18.69bn in March 2026, while gas flare penalties contributed N10.2bn. Miscellaneous oil revenue, which includes licences and permits, stood at N4.95bn, while concession rentals contributed N364.06m.

However, the March remittance represented a sharp decline when compared to the N124.4bn collected in February 2026. The documents attributed the decline mainly to lower royalty collections, which dropped from N104.31bn in February to N18.69bn in March, representing a decrease of N85.62bn.

Gas flare penalties also declined by N3.96bn during the period under review. The breakdown indicated that the commission generated N124.4bn in February 2026 and N34.2bn in March 2026.

The latest remittance figures underscore the Federal Government’s renewed push to improve oil revenue accountability amid concerns over leakages, under-remittances, and dwindling federation earnings.

The implementation of Executive Order 9 comes as the Federal Government intensifies efforts to stabilise public finances, improve crude oil production, and strengthen oversight across the petroleum value chain.

The development is also expected to boost monthly FAAC allocations to the three tiers of government at a time when many states are battling rising debt obligations, wage pressures, and infrastructure funding gaps.

Recall that the World Bank called for tighter and more explicit enforcement of Executive Order 9, urging the Federal Government to fully implement the directive by ending revenue deductions at source and migrating Ministries, Departments, and Agencies to budgetary funding.

In its latest Nigeria Development Update report, analysed by our correspondent on Thursday and titled “Nigeria’s Tomorrow Must Start Today: The Case for Early Childhood Development,” the bank said that while the order has already triggered notable improvements in revenue transparency, “further consolidation of recent gains” would depend on how rigorously its provisions are enforced across all government institutions.

According to the report, “Further consolidation of recent gains of Executive Order 9 will require rationalizing remaining cost-of-collection arrangements and transitioning MDA financing to transparent budget appropriations.”

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