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US cuts Nigerian crude imports by nearly 50%

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The United States reduced its purchase of Nigerian crude oil sharply in January 2026, with imports dropping by about 47.16 per cent month-on-month, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Figures from the U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report indicate that U.S. crude imports from Nigeria fell to 1.664 million barrels in January 2026, down from 3.149 million barrels recorded in December 2025. This represents a decline of 1.485 million barrels within one month, showing a significant contraction in Nigeria’s share of the U.S. crude market.

In value terms, the drop was equally steep. The customs value of Nigerian crude imports declined from $217.36m in December to $115.99m in January, while the cost, insurance, and freight value fell from $223.10m to $118.95m over the same period. The difference between the two measures reflects additional costs such as shipping and insurance included in CIF values, which are excluded from customs valuation.

This means that in January, the CIF value of Nigerian crude was about $2.96m higher than its customs value, compared to a wider gap of about $5.74m in December. The narrowing gap suggests relatively lower freight or insurance costs, or shorter shipping distances within the period.

The contraction comes amid a broader slowdown in total U.S. crude imports, which declined from 198.29 million barrels in December to 188.21 million barrels in January, representing a drop of about 5.1 per cent. Total import value also fell, with customs value decreasing from $11.41bn to $10.56bn, while CIF value dropped from $12.04bn to $11.15bn.

Within Africa, Nigeria lost ground to some peers. While total African crude exports to the U.S. remained flat at 6.933 million barrels, Angola recorded a sharp increase, rising from 575,000 barrels in December to 2.062 million barrels in January.

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Ghana also emerged as a new supplier with 738,000 barrels, having recorded no measurable exports in December. By contrast, Libya saw its exports to the U.S. decline from 2.137 million barrels to 1.086 million barrels over the period.

Nigeria’s share of total U.S. crude imports also weakened. The country accounted for roughly 0.88 per cent of total U.S. crude imports in January, down from about 1.59 per cent in December, reflecting the sharp reduction in volumes.

Further analysis of U.S. trade data shows that crude oil remains the dominant component of Nigeria’s exports to the United States. Total U.S. imports from Nigeria stood at $183m in January 2026, compared to $297m in December 2025.

With crude oil imports valued at $115.99m (customs basis) and $118.95m on a CIF basis, crude accounted for approximately 63.4 per cent to 65.0 per cent of total U.S. imports from Nigeria in January. This compares with about 73.2 per cent in December on a customs basis, indicating a relative moderation in crude dominance as overall imports declined.

The PUNCH further observed that the U.S. recorded a goods trade surplus of $419m with Nigeria in January, up from $84m in December. This was driven by a rise in U.S. exports to Nigeria, which increased from $381m to $602m, even as imports from Nigeria declined.

Across Africa, the U.S. posted a trade deficit of $503m in January, reversing a $174m surplus recorded in December. Total U.S. imports from Africa rose from $2.88bn to $3.54bn, while exports to the region edged slightly lower from $3.05bn to $3.04bn.

The PUNCH earlier reported that Nigeria accounted for about 52 per cent of Africa’s crude oil exports to the United States in 2025. According to the previous report, total U.S. crude imports from Africa stood at 89.371 million barrels in 2025, down from 103.631 million barrels in 2024, representing a decline of 14.26 million barrels or 13.8 per cent.

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Out of the 89.371 million barrels imported from Africa in 2025, Nigeria supplied 46.618 million barrels, compared to 50.793 million barrels in 2024. This was a drop of 4.175 million barrels or 8.2 per cent year on year.

Despite the lower volume, Nigeria’s share of Africa’s crude exports to the U.S. rose. In 2025, Nigeria’s 46.618 million barrels accounted for 52.2 per cent of Africa’s total shipments, up from 49.0 per cent in 2024, when it exported 50.793 million barrels out of the continent’s 103.631 million barrels.

The PUNCH earlier reported that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited recorded a profit after tax of N385bn in January 2026, even as crude oil and condensate production rose to 1.64 million barrels per day, according to the firm’s latest monthly operational report.

The January 2026 NNPC Monthly Report Summary, released on Monday, showed that the state-owned energy company generated N2.571tn in revenue during the month while remitting N726bn as statutory payments to the Federation.

This means the company recorded a sharp 47 per cent decline in its monthly revenue, which fell from N4.82tn in December 2025 to N2.57tn in January 2026. This contraction occurred despite a marginal increase in the company’s after-tax profit.

It disclosed that Nigeria produced 1.64 million barrels per day, up from 1.55 million barrels per day recorded in December 2025. This represents an increase of 0.09mbpd, or about 5.8 per cent month-on-month.

The PUNCH observed that the decline in crude exports to the U.S. occurred despite higher production. The trade outcomes come against the backdrop of renewed US protectionist rhetoric and tariff-focused trade policies associated with US President Donald Trump, which have influenced sourcing decisions, pricing structures, and trade flows globally.

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Last year, Donald Trump signed an executive order raising Nigeria’s tariff rate from 14 per cent to 15 per cent, with Washington implementing its “reciprocal” tariff regime.

The order, issued in late July, took effect on August 7, 2025. Although crude oil has been exempted in several cases, the higher duty applies directly to a wide range of non-oil Nigerian exports, creating uncertainty for American importers and dampening demand ahead of and after the effective date.

With crude oil exports largely exempted from the new tariff regime, non-oil exports appear to have borne the brunt of the disruption.

A renowned economist and Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, downplayed the impact of the U.S. tariffs on Nigeria.

“Our trade with the US is not that strategic. When anything goes wrong, it is not as if it can have any fundamental effect on our economy. Our trade exposure to them is very limited,” Yusuf explained.

He noted that Nigerian exports to the US are dominated by crude oil and a handful of other commodities, such as fertilisers, making the country’s trade profile narrow and underdeveloped in non-oil areas. Yusuf added that Nigeria’s tariff exposure is relatively moderate compared with other countries.

However, he identified another challenge beyond tariffs: US visa policy. “The bigger challenge for Nigeria’s trade relationship with the US is Washington’s visa policy. Barriers to travel limit business interactions and investment inflows. That is more critical than tariffs in the long run,” he said.

Since its inception, the Trump administration has steadily rolled out a series of visa restrictions and travel bans targeting Nigeria and several other countries.

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CBN, NCC to combat SIM-related fraud

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The Central Bank of Nigeria and the Nigerian Communications Commission on Monday signed a memorandum of understanding to tackle SIM-related fraud and strengthen consumer protection across Nigeria’s digital ecosystem.

The agreement, signed at the CBN headquarters in Abuja, aims to improve coordination between the financial and telecommunications sectors, focusing on combating electronic fraud linked to mobile numbers, enhancing payment system integrity, and protecting consumers.

Speaking at the event, the CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, said the pact was a “practical statement of national interest”, noting that the increasing reliance on digital channels for payments and financial services required stronger collaboration between both regulators.

He said, “This MoU is not merely an administrative document; it is a practical statement of national interest,” adding that the agreement would reinforce the stability and integrity of Nigeria’s payment system while supporting innovation and consumer safety.

Cardoso explained that the deal would strengthen coordination on approvals, technical standards, and innovation trials, including sandbox testing, to ensure that financial services remain reliable and scalable.

He noted that the partnership would also improve the response to rising electronic fraud, stressing that “addressing these threats requires joined-up action, shared intelligence, clearer escalation paths, stronger operational readiness across regulated entities, and consistent public education”.

A key component of the agreement is the rollout of the Telecom Identity Risk Management Portal, a data-sharing platform designed to detect fraud linked to recycled, swapped, or blacklisted phone numbers.

According to Cardoso, the platform would enable real-time verification of mobile number status across banks and fintech firms, providing an additional layer of protection for consumers and the financial system.

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He said strict compliance with data protection laws, including encryption and consent protocols, would guide the use of the platform.

Also speaking, the Executive Vice Chairman of the NCC, Aminu Maida, described the agreement as a major step in strengthening Nigeria’s digital economy.

He said, “The signing of this Memorandum of Understanding marks an important milestone in the regulatory stewardship of Nigeria’s digital economy,” adding that collaboration between both institutions was “not optional; it is imperative.”

Maida noted that the initiative would give financial institutions better visibility into the status of phone numbers used in transactions, including whether a line had been swapped, recycled, or flagged for fraudulent activity.

“This ensures that our financial services industry is better equipped with timely and relevant information to effectively combat e-fraud, particularly those perpetrated using phone numbers,” he said.

He added that the agreement would also improve consumer protection, assuring Nigerians that issues such as failed airtime recharges would be resolved more quickly under the new framework.

Earlier, the Director of Payment System Supervision at the CBN, Dr Rakiya Yusuf, said the partnership between both regulators had evolved over the years from separate oversight roles into a more integrated collaboration focused on securing Nigeria’s digital and financial systems.

She traced the relationship back to earlier efforts to align mobile payment regulations and telecom licensing frameworks, including the 2018 MoU that enabled telecom operators to participate in mobile money services through special purpose vehicles.

She also highlighted joint interventions such as the resolution of the USSD pricing dispute and the introduction of a N6.98 per session fee, as well as recent efforts to address failed transactions through a proposed 30-second refund framework.

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Under the new agreement, two joint committees will be established to drive implementation. These include the Joint Committee on Payment Systems and Consumer Protection and the Joint Committee on the telecom risk management platform.

The agreement is expected to deepen digital financial inclusion, reduce fraud risks, and strengthen trust in Nigeria’s rapidly expanding digital economy.

The PUNCH earlier reported that the CBN and the NCC unveiled a joint framework to tackle the growing problem of failed airtime and data transactions, which have left consumers frustrated after payments are processed but service delivery is not provided.

The 20-page draft, published on the CBN’s website, was developed by the CBN’s Consumer Protection & Financial Inclusion Department and the telecom regulator, with input from banks, mobile operators, payment providers, and other stakeholders.

The regulators seek to clarify accountability, standardise complaint-resolution timelines, and create a coordinated system for addressing grievances across the financial and telecommunications sectors.

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Electricity reforms: Rivers, Kano, 19 others delay takeover

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Twenty-one states, including Rivers and Kano, are yet to assume regulatory control of their electricity markets nearly three years after the enactment of the Electricity Act 2023, even as 15 states have already transitioned to independent market oversight.

The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission disclosed that the states that have completed the transition have established their own electricity regulatory frameworks and are now responsible for market development, investment attraction, tariff oversight, and customer protection within their jurisdictions.

According to the commission, the shift follows the decentralisation provisions of the Electricity Act 2023, which empower subnational governments to regulate electricity generation, transmission and distribution within their territories after completing the necessary legal and administrative processes.

NERC noted that 15 states have so far completed the transition to state-level regulation. These include Enugu, Ekiti, Ondo, Imo, Oyo, Edo, Kogi, Lagos, Ogun, Niger, Plateau, Abia, Nasarawa, Anambra and Bayelsa.

However, the remaining 21 states yet to assume regulatory control are Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Kwara, Osun, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe and Zamfara.

Industry analysts said the slow pace of transition in some states could delay the expected benefits of decentralisation, including improved power supply, localised tariff structures, and accelerated investments in embedded generation and mini-grid projects.

Under the new framework, once a state completes its transition, the state electricity regulator takes over licensing of intrastate electricity operations, enforcement of technical standards, tariff setting for local distribution, and protection of electricity consumers within the state.

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NERC, in turn, retains oversight only on interstate and national grid-related activities.

The commission emphasised that state regulators are expected to drive local electricity market growth by encouraging private sector participation, promoting renewable energy deployment, and ensuring service quality standards for distribution companies operating within their jurisdictions.

The timeline released by the commission shows that the earliest transitions occurred in October 2024, when Enugu and Ekiti states assumed regulatory authority, followed by Ondo shortly after. The pace accelerated in 2025, with several states, including Oyo, Edo, Lagos and Ogun, completing their transitions. The most recent additions include Nasarawa, Anambra and Bayelsa between January and February 2026.

It was observed, however, that some of the 15 states have not set up their regulatory commissions.

Power sector stakeholders argue that states yet to transition risk missing opportunities to attract investments in off-grid electrification projects, particularly in underserved rural communities.

They also note that state-level regulation could help address longstanding distribution challenges by enabling more flexible tariff structures, targeted subsidies, and enforcement mechanisms tailored to local conditions.

With less than half of the states having completed the transition, many argued that the effectiveness of the Electricity Act reforms will largely depend on how quickly the remaining states establish their regulatory institutions and operational frameworks.

Apparently overwhelmed by the country’s power woes, the Federal Government recently pushed the challenge to the 36 states, asking them to take over power generation, transmission, and distribution.

The Federal Government said this was the only solution to the power crisis in the country.

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The Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said at an energy summit in Lagos that the Electricity Act’s impact includes decentralisation and liberalisation.

“In a country as big as Nigeria, with almost a million square kilometres of landmass, over 200 million people, millions of businesses, thousands of institutions (health and educational institutions), 36 states plus the Federal Capital Territory, and 774 local governments—centralisation cannot work for us. The responsibility of providing stable electricity can never be left in the hands of the Federal Government.

“At the centre, you cannot, from Abuja, guarantee stable power across the country. So, this is one thing that the Act has achieved—decentralisation. That has now allowed all the states or the subnationals to play in all segments of the power sector value chain—generation, transmission, distribution, and even service industries supporting the power sector,” he stated.

He called on the remaining 21 states to set up their electricity market.

“I believe other states will follow suit in operationalising the autonomy granted, with full collaboration of the national regulator. We are working actively with these states to ensure strong alignment between the wholesale market and the retail market.

“In this regard, we believe the active involvement of the state governments, particularly in the off-grid segment, is critical, given the series of roundtable engagements held with governors by the Rural Electrification Agency, as well as ongoing efforts to closely track the distribution companies’ performances within their respective jurisdictions,” Adelabu emphasised.

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Nigeria buys 61.7m barrels US crude oil amid bulk exports

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Nigeria imported about 61.7 million barrels of crude oil from the United States between January 2024 and January 2026, underscoring the country’s growing reliance on foreign feedstock to support domestic refining despite being a major oil producer.

This is despite the fact that Nigeria exported over 300 million barrels of crude in the first 10 months of 2025 and 55.39 million barrels in January and February 2026.

Data obtained from the US Energy Information Administration showed that crude exports from the United States to Nigeria surged during the period, marking a sharp reversal from nearly a decade of negligible crude trade flows between both countries.

Before 2024, American crude shipments to Nigeria were virtually non-existent. The only notable supply recorded within the period was in March 2016, when exports averaged just 19,000 barrels per day, translating to about 0.589 million barrels for the entire year.

However, the trade pattern changed significantly in 2024, coinciding with the commencement of operations at the Dangote refinery, which industry observers said has emerged as the primary buyer of US crude to supplement domestic supply constraints.

The EIA reports its data in thousands of barrels per day, meaning the daily figures must be multiplied by the number of days in each month to derive the total monthly volume.

For 2024, data available for January to June indicated that Nigeria imported a total of 15.701 million barrels from the United States within six months. In January, imports averaged 125,000 barrels per day, translating to 3.87 million barrels. February recorded 110,000 barrels per day or 3.19 million barrels, while March fell to 51,000 barrels per day, amounting to 1.58 million barrels.

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Imports rose again in April to 67,000 barrels per day, representing 2.01 million barrels, before dropping to 35,000 barrels per day in May, equivalent to 1.08 million barrels. June recorded the highest inflow for the year at 132,000 barrels per day, which translated to 3.96 million barrels.

The volume increased further in 2025, which accounted for the largest share of the two-year imports. Between February and December 2025, Nigeria imported 41.06 million barrels of US crude.

According to the EIA, the year started with 111,000 barrels per day in February and climbed steadily in the following months.

Imports peaked in June 2025 at 305,000 barrels per day, the highest monthly rate in the dataset, delivering about 9.15 million barrels within 30 days. Another strong inflow was recorded in August at 201,000 barrels per day, equivalent to 6.23 million barrels.

However, the supply slowed sharply towards the end of the year. Imports dropped to 12,000 barrels per day in November, translating to just 0.36 million barrels, before slightly rising to 23,000 barrels per day or 0.71 million barrels in December.

For 2026, data available for January showed that Nigeria imported 159,000 barrels per day, amounting to 4.93 million barrels.

A breakdown of the figures showed that the combined total for 2024, 2025 and January 2026 stood at 61.685 million barrels, which rounds up to 61.7 million barrels.

The development highlights a paradox in Nigeria’s oil sector, where the country exports large volumes of crude oil but still struggles to supply enough feedstock to domestic refineries.

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For decades, Nigeria relied heavily on importing refined petroleum products such as petrol and diesel due to limited refining capacity. The commissioning of the Dangote refinery in 2024 shifted the pattern, with the country now importing crude oil for local processing instead of finished fuels.

Aliko Dangote once said the imports from the United States were largely driven by the need to bridge the gap between domestic crude supply and the refinery’s operational requirements.

The Dangote facility, one of the world’s largest single-train refineries, requires substantial daily feedstock to run at optimal capacity, needing over 19 million barrels monthly.

Sources told our correspondent that the Dangote refinery imports crude from Ghana and other African countries even as the country sells crude to other countries.

Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria showed that Nigeria exported an estimated 306.7 million barrels of crude oil between January and October 2025, despite concerns over feedstock shortages faced by domestic refineries.

The figures indicated that while the country produced about 443.5 million barrels during the 10-month period, averaging roughly 1.45 million barrels per day, a significant portion of the output was shipped overseas.

Cumulatively, exports between January and October represented about 69 per cent of total production, leaving roughly 137 million barrels for domestic use.

Similarly, Nigeria exported 55.39 million barrels of crude oil in the first two months of 2026 even as the Dangote refinery continues to struggle with inadequate domestic feedstock supply.

According to CBN data, the country shipped out 31.31 million barrels in January and 24.08 million barrels in February.

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In January, crude production averaged 1.46 million barrels per day with exports at 1.01 mbpd. In February, production fell to 1.31 mbpd while exports averaged 0.86 mbpd. Total crude production for the two months stood at 81.94 million barrels, meaning that 26.55 million barrels were left behind for local refineries in the first two months of 2026.

On several occasions, the Dangote refinery complained of low crude supply despite the naira-for-crude arrangement, forcing it to source feedstock from the United States and other countries, including Ghana.

Also, the Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria lamented that some modular refineries under its umbrella shut down intermittently due to inadequate crude supply.

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