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Foreign debt servicing gulps almost $1bn in two months

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Nigeria spent nearly $1bn servicing its foreign loans in the first two months of 2026, as external debt repayments rose amid increasing capital outflows from the economy.

The figure, obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s February 2026 Economic Report, showed that the country spent $440m on foreign loan repayments in January and $480m in February, bringing the total debt servicing bill for the two months to $920m.

The report showed that total capital outflows rose significantly in February, driven largely by higher capital transfers and increased loan repayments. According to the CBN, “Capital outflows increased, mainly on account of higher capital transfers in the review period. Total capital outflow rose to $2.75bn, from $1.63bn in the preceding month.”

The apex bank attributed the increase primarily to a sharp rise in capital transfers, although debt repayments also contributed to the higher outflows. It stated, “The development was driven mainly by a 91.53 per cent increase in capital transfers to $2.26bn, relative to the level in the preceding month. Outflow through loan repayments also rose to $0.48bn from $0.44bn in January 2026.”

The report added that dividend repatriation declined during the review period. “In terms of share, capital transfers accounted for 82.18 per cent of total capital outflows, loan repayments (17.45 per cent), while repatriation of dividends constituted the balance,” the CBN noted.

An analysis of the figures showed that debt repayments accounted for nearly one-fifth of Nigeria’s total capital outflows in February, highlighting the growing burden of servicing the country’s external obligations.

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The report also indicated that the banking sector accounted for the largest share of capital outflows at 45.96 per cent, followed by the financing sector at 26.10 per cent, oil and gas at 15.72 per cent, telecommunications at 3.51 per cent, and production/manufacturing at 2.62 per cent, while other sectors made up the balance.

It also showed that Lagos accounted for 62.90 per cent of capital outflows, followed by the Federal Capital Territory at 37.04 per cent, with Ondo, Ogun and other states accounting for the remainder.

Despite the increase in capital outflows, the CBN said Nigeria’s external position remained strong during the period. In its summary of economic developments, the bank stated that “despite heightened geopolitical risks and trade tensions, the external sector recorded a higher trade surplus and capital inflows, due largely to lower import bills and increased capital transfers.”

It added that foreign reserves rose to $50.12bn in February from $48.88bn in January, providing import cover of 9.61 months, well above the international benchmark of three months.

The PUNCH earlier reported that Nigeria spent about $5.21bn servicing external debt obligations in 2025, accounting for more than 72 per cent of the country’s total international payments during the year, according to the data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria.

Figures published on the CBN website indicated that external debt service rose from $4.66bn in 2024 to $5.21bn in 2025, representing an increase of $551.86m or about 11.9 per cent year-on-year.

Nigeria’s public external debt is projected to rise by $20.7bn by 2027, according to the International Monetary Fund. The IMF disclosed this in its 2026 Article IV Consultation report on Nigeria, projecting that public external debt would increase from $51.9bn in 2025 to $72.6bn by 2027.

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The projected increase represents a 39.9 per cent rise within two years and underscores growing concerns over the country’s debt burden despite recent improvements in macroeconomic stability.

According to the Fund’s Balance of Payments projections, public external debt is expected to rise from $51.9bn in 2025 to $66.5bn in 2026 before climbing further to $72.6bn in 2027.

The IMF’s projection broadly aligns with the latest Debt Management Office data, which showed that Nigeria’s public external debt stood at $51.86bn as of December 31, 2025. Based on the Fund’s forecast, the debt stock would increase by about $20.74bn between the end of 2025 and 2027.

Public external debt service due is expected to increase from 8.1 per cent of exports of goods and services in 2025 to 8.8 per cent in 2027, after easing to 5.0 per cent in 2026. The Fund further projected that interest payments on public debt would rise from $2bn in 2025 to $3bn by 2027.

At the Federal Government level, debt servicing is expected to continue consuming more than half of government revenue. The IMF estimated that interest payments absorbed 53.2 per cent of Federal Government revenue in 2025 and projected the ratio at 53.7 per cent in 2026 before easing marginally to 52.4 per cent in 2027.

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, earlier faulted Nigerians, especially analysts and commentators, for criticising government borrowing without considering the purpose, cost and expected returns of such debt.

Oyedele spoke in Abuja at the Fellowship Award Ceremony and 2nd Biennial Conference of the Capital Market Academics of Nigeria. He said, “When analysts go on TV and join the populist view to accuse the government of borrowing, you are doing a disservice. The relevant question is never simply how much debt.

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“It is always debt for what and at what cost, against what return, and repaid on what terms. A nation, a state, or a business that borrows to finance a productive asset generating returns above the cost of that capital is not behaving recklessly; it is behaving rationally.”

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Lawmakers oppose dollar billing for local petrol sales

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The House of Representatives has commenced moves to address mounting concerns in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, opposing the continued imposition of US dollar-denominated charges on locally refined petroleum products and announcing plans to investigate alleged irregularities in the allocation of fuel import licences.

The House Committee on Petroleum Resources (Downstream) disclosed this on Tuesday during an interactive session with key industry stakeholders, including the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, the Depot and Petroleum Products Marketers Association of Nigeria, and the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria.

The engagement forms part of the committee’s ongoing consultations on proposed amendments to the Petroleum Industry Act and broader reforms aimed at strengthening domestic refining, guaranteeing national energy security and ensuring a competitive downstream petroleum market.

The Chairman of the committee, Ikenga Ugochinyere, said the lawmakers would invite the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, the Nigerian Ports Authority, the Central Bank of Nigeria, refiners and other relevant agencies to respond to issues raised by industry operators.

“We’ll be meeting with the NMDPRA, NUPRC, the refiners—both modular refinery owners and the large refinery operators—as well as the NPA, the CBN and other relevant agencies on the issues that have been raised. These will form part of our downstream reforms, including proposed amendments to the Petroleum Industry Act and legislative motions to correct identified gaps,” Ugochinyere said.

The lawmaker expressed concern over the continued charging of port fees in U.S. dollars for petroleum products refined and transported within Nigeria, describing the practice as detrimental to the economy.

“We have taken special note of the issue of dollar-denominated charges by the Nigerian Ports Authority. It is not good for the economy that, at a time like this, people involved in domestic downstream activities are still being charged in dollars. That ultimately affects the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit,” he said.

Ugochinyere also pledged to investigate allegations that fuel import licences for the first three quarters of 2026 were issued to the same group of marketers.

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“We have also taken note of what you said about the lopsidedness in the issuance of import licences, where allocations for the first, second and third quarters went to the same set of operators. We will raise these questions when the NMDPRA appears before the committee to explain the criteria used in issuing those licences,” he added.

The committee chairman stressed the need to strike a balance between protecting Nigeria’s expanding domestic refining capacity and preserving the investments of marketers who have built storage and distribution infrastructure over several decades.

“How do we encourage and protect owners of domestic refineries while also protecting the investments of marketers? We cannot continue importing the same volume of petroleum products as before, given that more refineries are coming on stream. At the same time, we must guarantee national energy security in case local refineries experience disruptions.

“We need a balanced framework that supports domestic refining, preserves healthy competition and ensures the country always has a reliable fuel supply. That is the direction this committee is pursuing,” he said.

Presenting DAPPMAN’s memorandum, the association’s Executive Secretary, Mr Olufemi Adewole, urged lawmakers to address what he described as structural distortions affecting petroleum marketers and depot operators.

According to him, at least 72 of Nigeria’s 154 licensed petroleum depots recorded little or no trading activity over the past year because of what he described as an uneven operating environment.

“From the records of the NMDPRA, not fewer than 72 of the 154 depots nationwide had no regular or consistent trading activity in the last one year. They are merely paying salaries without engaging in meaningful business. This is largely due to an uneven playing field, persistent trading losses and the inability to access alternative sources of supply,” he said.

While welcoming the commencement of operations at the Dangote Refinery, Adewole warned against what he described as a near-monopoly in the supply of PMS.

“Our experience has been one of mixed feelings, bordering on an almost total monopoly in the supply of PMS by the mega refinery. Although the Petroleum Industry Act provides for a fully deregulated market where prices are determined by market forces, that has not been our experience,” he said.

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The association also accused the NMDPRA of allocating import permits repeatedly to the same group of marketers. “The same set of marketers received import allocations in the first, second and third quarters of 2026, as though other qualified operators do not exist. This is unacceptable, and we urge this committee to ensure greater transparency and fairness in future allocations,” Adewole said.

DAPPMAN argued that retaining the option of fuel imports remains necessary to prevent shortages during refinery maintenance, operational disruptions or logistics challenges.

“In order to avoid the return of fuel queues, the import option provided under the Petroleum Industry Act must remain available as a regulated contingency mechanism whenever domestic supply is insufficient,” he said.

The association also decried what it described as duplicated port charges and the continued billing of domestic petroleum transactions in foreign currency.

“Marketers are invoiced at the loading point and again at the discharge port for products moved entirely within Nigeria. More critically, certain charges are still imposed in US dollars despite the purely domestic nature of these transactions. This practice persists despite a presidential directive suspending foreign currency-denominated billing for local operations. We urge the committee to ensure compliance,” Adewole added.

DAPPMAN further called for accelerated dredging of major waterways, rehabilitation of pipelines and depots, improved rail transportation for petroleum products and the creation of a national downstream logistics master plan.

IPMAN National President, Abubakar Shettima, commended the Federal Government for encouraging private investment in refining but said marketers continue to grapple with high financing costs, multiple taxation, foreign exchange volatility, inadequate storage infrastructure and limited access to refinery products.

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He called for policies that would support domestic refining while preserving competition. “We support strengthening domestic refining, but we also need equitable access to locally refined petroleum products, affordable financing and reduced regulatory costs that ultimately increase pump prices,” he said.

Shettima proposed the establishment of a specialised Petroleum Bank to provide single-digit interest loans to operators. “Today, marketers borrow from commercial banks at interest rates of up to 32 per cent. Those costs are eventually passed on to consumers. We are proposing a Petroleum Bank that will provide single-digit interest loans, similar to what exists in the agriculture and industrial sectors,” he said.

He also urged multinational oil companies involved in fuel importation to invest in local refining. “Before now, we depended almost entirely on imported petroleum products. Today, Nigeria is exporting refined products. Multinational companies should invest in domestic refineries to complement the existing capacity rather than relying solely on imports,” he added.

On the future of Nigeria’s state-owned refineries, Shettima suggested that independent marketers be allowed to participate in their management.

“If independent marketers are allowed to participate in operating the government refineries, we believe we can contribute significantly to their revival. We have done it before. Independent marketers invested in what is today NIPCO, which has become one of Nigeria’s leading petroleum marketing companies,” he said.

The committee’s consultations come as Nigeria seeks to consolidate gains from recent reforms in the downstream petroleum sector following the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act and the expansion of domestic refining capacity.

Lawmakers are expected to engage regulators, refiners, NNPC Limited and other stakeholders before proposing legislative measures aimed at creating a more competitive, transparent and sustainable petroleum market while safeguarding the country’s long-term energy security.

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Nigeria tops Africa in petrol price surge during US-Iran war

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Nigeria recorded the sharpest increase in petrol price across Africa during the first half of 2026, with pump prices surging by 39.5 per cent as the Middle East conflict disrupted global crude oil supplies and exposed the country’s vulnerability to external market shocks despite growing domestic refining capacity.

The disclosure was contained in the Nigeria Half-Year Downstream Industry Report (January–June 2026) released on Tuesday by the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria.

According to the report, the conflict involving Israel, Iran and the United States, which began on February 28, 2026, triggered widespread uncertainty in global oil markets, sending crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and sharply increasing the cost of transporting petroleum products worldwide.

The report explained that the temporary disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz forced oil tankers to abandon the traditional route and sail around the Cape of Good Hope, more than doubling voyage time from about 18 days to nearly 40 days.

MEMAN stated, “During the first half of 2026, severe geopolitical tensions in the Middle East sparked immediate supply anxieties, injecting a heavy risk premium that drove international crude benchmarks past $100/bbl.

“This price surge was quickly compounded as the conflict bottlenecked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, forcing maritime oil tankers to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope and stretching what is typically an 18-day voyage into a nearly 40-day journey.”

The association said Nigeria’s deregulated petrol market transmitted the global price shock directly to consumers, making the country the hardest hit in Africa.

It said, “Operating under a newly deregulated system, Nigeria experienced an immediate price transmission at the pumps. Data from the height of the crisis revealed that Nigeria recorded a 39.5 per cent gasoline price surge, the sharpest increase across Africa, more than doubling the price jumps seen in regional peers like Egypt (14.3 per cent).”

Despite the sharp rise in prices, the report said the period also marked a significant turning point in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum industry as local refining displaced imported fuel at an unprecedented pace.

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According to MEMAN, the expansion of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery significantly reduced Nigeria’s dependence on imported Premium Motor Spirit.

The report stated, “Against the backdrop of this intense price shock, the downstream sector achieved a significant structural shift away from import dependence toward domestic refinery supply, driven primarily by the operational scale-up of the Dangote Refinery, which by the review period accounted for the majority of local PMS supply.”

It added, “Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) local refining share expanded from 38.9 per cent in 2025 to 81.7 per cent over the review period. Concurrently, local units met an average of 64 per cent of diesel demand, while domestic gas processing facilities captured 90.5 per cent of the cooking gas market.”

However, the association warned that increased domestic refining had yet to eliminate Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products. According to the report, local refinery production remained below national demand during critical periods between February and April, forcing regulators to approve fuel imports to prevent shortages.

MEMAN said, “However, the charts also highlight that domestic production alone was still structurally unable to fully bridge national demand, especially during peak periods. This supply-to-consumption deficit became visually evident between February and April, when the national consumption curve systematically crossed above domestic refinery output lines.”

It added, “To prevent severe product stockouts and stabilize the grid, the regulatory framework actively intervened by issuing refined product import licenses to selected marketers, a hybrid supply approach that successfully buffered fuel security during the worst of the international logistical shocks.”

The report further revealed that marketers drastically reduced fuel inventories because of soaring replacement costs, leading to a sharp decline in Nigeria’s strategic fuel reserves.

According to MEMAN, “The high-cost, volatile open-market environment forced aggressive realignments in inventory management across the value chain, as marketers optimized liquidity by drawing down physical buffers rather than holding expensive static wet stocks.”

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It added, “This structural shift caused national PMS stock sufficiency to drop progressively from 33 days in January to a low of 16 days by May, falling drastically short of the statutory 30-day safety benchmark, before recovering to roughly 20 days in June as licensed imports began filtering into the system.”

The marketers warned that the rapid depletion of fuel reserves highlighted the need for government-backed strategic petroleum reserves to cushion future global supply disruptions.

The report stated, “The rapid depletion of refined sufficiency days during the global shipping crisis underscored Nigeria’s lack of a resilient buffer, prioritizing the urgent downstream requirement to establish robust, state-backed Strategic Product Reserves and a dedicated Crude Oil Feedstock Reserve to insulate domestic refineries and consumers from sudden external supply chain closures.”

MEMAN also disclosed that persistently high fuel prices forced consumers to cut back on fuel purchases. It stated, “Furthermore, sustained open-market pricing triggered strong consumer demand elasticity, reducing average daily consumption by 22.3 per cent for PMS and 17.5 per cent for AGO.”

The association maintained that while Nigeria’s downstream reforms were beginning to yield results through higher domestic refining capacity, effective regulation would remain essential to sustain competition and protect consumers.

It added, “As domestic refining expands and the downstream sector evolves, sustained regulatory vigilance will remain essential to fostering fair competition, protecting consumers, strengthening investor confidence, and ensuring that the benefits of ongoing reforms are realised across the entire petroleum value chain.”

Under a section titled “Impact of the Middle East Conflict – Strait of Hormuz,” MEMAN said the conflict fundamentally altered global petroleum trade routes after the strategic waterway became temporarily inaccessible.

The report explained that suppliers increasingly shifted cargoes from the Persian Gulf to the U.S. Gulf Coast and West Africa as shipping companies sought safer alternative routes.

According to MEMAN, “The start of the conflict in the Middle East on 28th February 2026 and the subsequent temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz significantly reshaped global crude oil and petroleum product trade flows during the first half of the year. Under normal market conditions, the Gulf serves as the primary export hub for refined petroleum products moving to Europe, Asia and parts of Africa.”

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It continued, “However, with access through the Strait severely restricted, cargoes were rerouted to alternative supply sources, particularly from the U.S. Gulf Coast and West Africa. The longer sailing distances, coupled with higher freight and insurance costs, increased delivered product costs and placed additional pressure on global shipping capacity.”

MEMAN further stated, “Under normal conditions, some Gulf-origin cargoes could reach key Asian markets in approximately 18 days via the Strait of Hormuz; however, rerouting around longer alternative routes extended voyage times to nearly 40 days, significantly delaying supply flows and increasing logistical costs. The disruptions reinforced the importance of diversified refining centers and demonstrated the growing strategic role of Atlantic Basin suppliers in maintaining global product availability during supply shocks.”

The first half of 2026 was one of the most volatile periods for Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector since the full deregulation of the petrol market. Pump prices became fully responsive to movements in international crude oil prices, foreign exchange fluctuations, freight costs and supply chain disruptions following the removal of petrol subsidies.

Although the operational expansion of the 700,000-barrels-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery substantially reduced Nigeria’s reliance on imported petrol during the review period, local refining capacity was still insufficient to meet peak national demand, prompting the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority to approve imports by selected marketers to maintain energy security.

The report underscores the opportunities and challenges of Nigeria’s transition to a market-driven downstream sector, where increased domestic refining has strengthened supply resilience but global geopolitical events continue to exert a significant influence on domestic fuel prices.

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Dangote to donate one-third of wealth to charity, daughter reveals

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Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, plans to donate one-third of his wealth to charity as part of his succession plan, his daughter, Halima Dangote, has revealed.

Halima, a trustee of the Aliko Dangote Foundation, disclosed the arrangement in an interview with Bloomberg published on Tuesday, saying the billionaire had secured his family’s support to dedicate 33 per cent of his estate to philanthropy.

According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Dangote’s net worth is estimated at $35.1 billion, meaning one-third of his current fortune would amount to about $11.7 billion if maintained at that level.

Explaining the decision, Halima said her father considers philanthropy central to his legacy and has embedded it into the family’s long-term succession plans.

“He sort of put all the structure in place whereby we focus a lot on health and education. He actually donated 25 per cent to the foundation. If you look at it, it is what we call in Sharia Code in Islam; it means he has donated 33 per cent of his whole inheritance to his foundation,” she said.

“That is how important it is to him because philanthropy needs to be in existence generation after generation.

“So giving back is part and parcel of what we do. We believe we’re here, that our business is successful because of the giving back and because of the philanthropic aspect. That is why the 33 per cent is important.

“And that is why he made an announcement and he asked myself, my two sisters and his mother to sign under that will that he is able to give that 33 per cent to humanity.”

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The planned donation builds on Dangote’s existing philanthropic work through the Aliko Dangote Foundation, established in 1994.

According to Halima, the foundation was endowed with $1.25 billion about a decade ago and has since received an additional $700 million in funding.

She said about 70 per cent of the foundation’s spending is directed to Nigeria, while 20 per cent supports projects across Africa and the remainder funds initiatives in other parts of the world.

The foundation’s interventions span health, education, nutrition and humanitarian relief, and include partnerships with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and state governments in northern Nigeria that contributed to the eradication of wild poliovirus in Africa.

Dangote’s planned charitable commitment comes amid growing global attention on billionaire philanthropy. While the proposed 33 per cent allocation falls short of the 50 per cent threshold commonly associated with the Giving Pledge, it would rank among the largest philanthropic commitments ever announced by an African billionaire.

Earlier this year, TIME magazine named Dangote among the world’s most influential philanthropists in its inaugural TIME100 Philanthropy list, recognising his charitable work through the Aliko Dangote Foundation, which spends more than ₦50 billion annually on programmes across Africa.

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