Giant dust clouds rose from a green-red combine harvester as it crawled across a parched field, a sign that something was awry with UK farmer John Pawsey’s land.

“It suddenly, completely dried out,” Pawsey said. For weeks the drought “just seems to have gone on for ever” on his farm in the eastern county of Suffolk.

English farmers have been contending with the driest July ever recorded by the Met Office weather agency — unwelcome news for those like Pawsey who have only seen paltry yields of crops such as oats, wheat and vetch.

Concern over food security has gripped Britain’s headlines amid a series of heatwaves this year.

“All of our fears were realised when we got our combines into the field and realised that actually the yield was … between 25 and 30 percent down,” Pawsey said.

His family has tilled the Suffolk soil since a Scottish great-grandfather moved there, one of many farm workers who flocked south following the late 19th century agricultural depression.

Like his ancestors, Pawsey, 62, is navigating a turbulent future.

“I am worried about the coming years,” he admitted.

The drought is the most recent weather-related challenge to hit the nation’s farmers over the past five years.

Food growers must learn to adapt, Pawsey urged, adding dynamic farmers should view the changing climate as an “opportunity.”

His organic farm has experimented with new crops, like fava beans and chickpeas more suited to hotter, drier climates, and techniques to build resilience such as pairing two different crops in the same field to force them to grow as they compete for space and nutrients.

The government needs to support farmers in “making a transition” towards using similar methods, Pawsey argued.

Food security expert Timothy Benton endorses farming less intensively, saying “a more circular, diverse farming system” would be more secure and less dependant on imports of such things as fruits and fertilisers.

“Climate impacts will become greater,” Benton told AFP, adding “food systems will have to change”.

“We’re not investing enough in the forms of technological innovation to address a larger crisis,” he said.

Benton argued: “Food is not just food, it’s what you grow, produce and the products and processes needed to bring it to the general population.”

– Different menu –

Climate change could also force Britain to change its eating habits, said Nicola Cannon, professor at the Royal Agricultural College. She has been growing soya with the aim of introducing it to more British farms.

Dinnertime staples have been hit especially hard by the drought. This year’s pea yield was only “50 percent of what we wanted,” Cannon said.

They had little chance to grow, as there has been “very little moisture since March,” she added.

On Pawsey’s Suffolk farm, an entire crop of quinoa failed.

“We just had no rain,” he said. “The only things that started growing were docks (leaves) and thistles.”

Shortages of certain foods may result if drought conditions continue, National Farmers’ Union president Tom Bradshaw told the BBC.

“We have taken our food supply for granted for far too long,” he warned.

Lower yields make farming less profitable, meaning farmers will lack capital to invest in adaptation and experimenting with new crops.

Buying seasonal British produce gives “farmers more market certainty which allows them to invest in adaptations,” Cannon said.

“We’ve invested too much in worrying about wheat genetics and not enough about farming systems,” expert Benton said.

“Food security is national security,” Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s spokesperson said earlier this week.

The government has promised “record investment in water infrastructure, including nine new reservoirs,” they added.

Adapting food systems will require greater state intervention, Benton added.

“Change will be much more expensive,” he said, warning that “things are going to get worse in the decades ahead.”

Pawsey said that if weather trends continue, “farmers will go out of business.”

“It’ll either mean higher prices or the government will have to continue to support farmers,” he said.

AFP

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The House of Representatives has commenced moves to address mounting concerns in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, opposing the continued imposition of US dollar-denominated charges on locally refined petroleum products and announcing plans to investigate alleged irregularities in the allocation of fuel import licences.

The House Committee on Petroleum Resources (Downstream) disclosed this on Tuesday during an interactive session with key industry stakeholders, including the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, the Depot and Petroleum Products Marketers Association of Nigeria, and the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria.

The engagement forms part of the committee’s ongoing consultations on proposed amendments to the Petroleum Industry Act and broader reforms aimed at strengthening domestic refining, guaranteeing national energy security and ensuring a competitive downstream petroleum market.

The Chairman of the committee, Ikenga Ugochinyere, said the lawmakers would invite the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, the Nigerian Ports Authority, the Central Bank of Nigeria, refiners and other relevant agencies to respond to issues raised by industry operators.

“We’ll be meeting with the NMDPRA, NUPRC, the refiners—both modular refinery owners and the large refinery operators—as well as the NPA, the CBN and other relevant agencies on the issues that have been raised. These will form part of our downstream reforms, including proposed amendments to the Petroleum Industry Act and legislative motions to correct identified gaps,” Ugochinyere said.

The lawmaker expressed concern over the continued charging of port fees in U.S. dollars for petroleum products refined and transported within Nigeria, describing the practice as detrimental to the economy.

“We have taken special note of the issue of dollar-denominated charges by the Nigerian Ports Authority. It is not good for the economy that, at a time like this, people involved in domestic downstream activities are still being charged in dollars. That ultimately affects the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit,” he said.

Ugochinyere also pledged to investigate allegations that fuel import licences for the first three quarters of 2026 were issued to the same group of marketers.

“We have also taken note of what you said about the lopsidedness in the issuance of import licences, where allocations for the first, second and third quarters went to the same set of operators. We will raise these questions when the NMDPRA appears before the committee to explain the criteria used in issuing those licences,” he added.

The committee chairman stressed the need to strike a balance between protecting Nigeria’s expanding domestic refining capacity and preserving the investments of marketers who have built storage and distribution infrastructure over several decades.

“How do we encourage and protect owners of domestic refineries while also protecting the investments of marketers? We cannot continue importing the same volume of petroleum products as before, given that more refineries are coming on stream. At the same time, we must guarantee national energy security in case local refineries experience disruptions.

“We need a balanced framework that supports domestic refining, preserves healthy competition and ensures the country always has a reliable fuel supply. That is the direction this committee is pursuing,” he said.

Presenting DAPPMAN’s memorandum, the association’s Executive Secretary, Mr Olufemi Adewole, urged lawmakers to address what he described as structural distortions affecting petroleum marketers and depot operators.

According to him, at least 72 of Nigeria’s 154 licensed petroleum depots recorded little or no trading activity over the past year because of what he described as an uneven operating environment.

“From the records of the NMDPRA, not fewer than 72 of the 154 depots nationwide had no regular or consistent trading activity in the last one year. They are merely paying salaries without engaging in meaningful business. This is largely due to an uneven playing field, persistent trading losses and the inability to access alternative sources of supply,” he said.

While welcoming the commencement of operations at the Dangote Refinery, Adewole warned against what he described as a near-monopoly in the supply of PMS.

“Our experience has been one of mixed feelings, bordering on an almost total monopoly in the supply of PMS by the mega refinery. Although the Petroleum Industry Act provides for a fully deregulated market where prices are determined by market forces, that has not been our experience,” he said.

The association also accused the NMDPRA of allocating import permits repeatedly to the same group of marketers. “The same set of marketers received import allocations in the first, second and third quarters of 2026, as though other qualified operators do not exist. This is unacceptable, and we urge this committee to ensure greater transparency and fairness in future allocations,” Adewole said.

DAPPMAN argued that retaining the option of fuel imports remains necessary to prevent shortages during refinery maintenance, operational disruptions or logistics challenges.

“In order to avoid the return of fuel queues, the import option provided under the Petroleum Industry Act must remain available as a regulated contingency mechanism whenever domestic supply is insufficient,” he said.

The association also decried what it described as duplicated port charges and the continued billing of domestic petroleum transactions in foreign currency.

“Marketers are invoiced at the loading point and again at the discharge port for products moved entirely within Nigeria. More critically, certain charges are still imposed in US dollars despite the purely domestic nature of these transactions. This practice persists despite a presidential directive suspending foreign currency-denominated billing for local operations. We urge the committee to ensure compliance,” Adewole added.

DAPPMAN further called for accelerated dredging of major waterways, rehabilitation of pipelines and depots, improved rail transportation for petroleum products and the creation of a national downstream logistics master plan.

IPMAN National President, Abubakar Shettima, commended the Federal Government for encouraging private investment in refining but said marketers continue to grapple with high financing costs, multiple taxation, foreign exchange volatility, inadequate storage infrastructure and limited access to refinery products.

He called for policies that would support domestic refining while preserving competition. “We support strengthening domestic refining, but we also need equitable access to locally refined petroleum products, affordable financing and reduced regulatory costs that ultimately increase pump prices,” he said.

Shettima proposed the establishment of a specialised Petroleum Bank to provide single-digit interest loans to operators. “Today, marketers borrow from commercial banks at interest rates of up to 32 per cent. Those costs are eventually passed on to consumers. We are proposing a Petroleum Bank that will provide single-digit interest loans, similar to what exists in the agriculture and industrial sectors,” he said.

He also urged multinational oil companies involved in fuel importation to invest in local refining. “Before now, we depended almost entirely on imported petroleum products. Today, Nigeria is exporting refined products. Multinational companies should invest in domestic refineries to complement the existing capacity rather than relying solely on imports,” he added.

On the future of Nigeria’s state-owned refineries, Shettima suggested that independent marketers be allowed to participate in their management.

“If independent marketers are allowed to participate in operating the government refineries, we believe we can contribute significantly to their revival. We have done it before. Independent marketers invested in what is today NIPCO, which has become one of Nigeria’s leading petroleum marketing companies,” he said.

The committee’s consultations come as Nigeria seeks to consolidate gains from recent reforms in the downstream petroleum sector following the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act and the expansion of domestic refining capacity.

Lawmakers are expected to engage regulators, refiners, NNPC Limited and other stakeholders before proposing legislative measures aimed at creating a more competitive, transparent and sustainable petroleum market while safeguarding the country’s long-term energy security.

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Nigeria recorded the sharpest increase in petrol price across Africa during the first half of 2026, with pump prices surging by 39.5 per cent as the Middle East conflict disrupted global crude oil supplies and exposed the country’s vulnerability to external market shocks despite growing domestic refining capacity.

The disclosure was contained in the Nigeria Half-Year Downstream Industry Report (January–June 2026) released on Tuesday by the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria.

According to the report, the conflict involving Israel, Iran and the United States, which began on February 28, 2026, triggered widespread uncertainty in global oil markets, sending crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and sharply increasing the cost of transporting petroleum products worldwide.

The report explained that the temporary disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz forced oil tankers to abandon the traditional route and sail around the Cape of Good Hope, more than doubling voyage time from about 18 days to nearly 40 days.

MEMAN stated, “During the first half of 2026, severe geopolitical tensions in the Middle East sparked immediate supply anxieties, injecting a heavy risk premium that drove international crude benchmarks past $100/bbl.

“This price surge was quickly compounded as the conflict bottlenecked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, forcing maritime oil tankers to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope and stretching what is typically an 18-day voyage into a nearly 40-day journey.”

The association said Nigeria’s deregulated petrol market transmitted the global price shock directly to consumers, making the country the hardest hit in Africa.

It said, “Operating under a newly deregulated system, Nigeria experienced an immediate price transmission at the pumps. Data from the height of the crisis revealed that Nigeria recorded a 39.5 per cent gasoline price surge, the sharpest increase across Africa, more than doubling the price jumps seen in regional peers like Egypt (14.3 per cent).”

Despite the sharp rise in prices, the report said the period also marked a significant turning point in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum industry as local refining displaced imported fuel at an unprecedented pace.

According to MEMAN, the expansion of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery significantly reduced Nigeria’s dependence on imported Premium Motor Spirit.

The report stated, “Against the backdrop of this intense price shock, the downstream sector achieved a significant structural shift away from import dependence toward domestic refinery supply, driven primarily by the operational scale-up of the Dangote Refinery, which by the review period accounted for the majority of local PMS supply.”

It added, “Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) local refining share expanded from 38.9 per cent in 2025 to 81.7 per cent over the review period. Concurrently, local units met an average of 64 per cent of diesel demand, while domestic gas processing facilities captured 90.5 per cent of the cooking gas market.”

However, the association warned that increased domestic refining had yet to eliminate Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products. According to the report, local refinery production remained below national demand during critical periods between February and April, forcing regulators to approve fuel imports to prevent shortages.

MEMAN said, “However, the charts also highlight that domestic production alone was still structurally unable to fully bridge national demand, especially during peak periods. This supply-to-consumption deficit became visually evident between February and April, when the national consumption curve systematically crossed above domestic refinery output lines.”

It added, “To prevent severe product stockouts and stabilize the grid, the regulatory framework actively intervened by issuing refined product import licenses to selected marketers, a hybrid supply approach that successfully buffered fuel security during the worst of the international logistical shocks.”

The report further revealed that marketers drastically reduced fuel inventories because of soaring replacement costs, leading to a sharp decline in Nigeria’s strategic fuel reserves.

According to MEMAN, “The high-cost, volatile open-market environment forced aggressive realignments in inventory management across the value chain, as marketers optimized liquidity by drawing down physical buffers rather than holding expensive static wet stocks.”

It added, “This structural shift caused national PMS stock sufficiency to drop progressively from 33 days in January to a low of 16 days by May, falling drastically short of the statutory 30-day safety benchmark, before recovering to roughly 20 days in June as licensed imports began filtering into the system.”

The marketers warned that the rapid depletion of fuel reserves highlighted the need for government-backed strategic petroleum reserves to cushion future global supply disruptions.

The report stated, “The rapid depletion of refined sufficiency days during the global shipping crisis underscored Nigeria’s lack of a resilient buffer, prioritizing the urgent downstream requirement to establish robust, state-backed Strategic Product Reserves and a dedicated Crude Oil Feedstock Reserve to insulate domestic refineries and consumers from sudden external supply chain closures.”

MEMAN also disclosed that persistently high fuel prices forced consumers to cut back on fuel purchases. It stated, “Furthermore, sustained open-market pricing triggered strong consumer demand elasticity, reducing average daily consumption by 22.3 per cent for PMS and 17.5 per cent for AGO.”

The association maintained that while Nigeria’s downstream reforms were beginning to yield results through higher domestic refining capacity, effective regulation would remain essential to sustain competition and protect consumers.

It added, “As domestic refining expands and the downstream sector evolves, sustained regulatory vigilance will remain essential to fostering fair competition, protecting consumers, strengthening investor confidence, and ensuring that the benefits of ongoing reforms are realised across the entire petroleum value chain.”

Under a section titled “Impact of the Middle East Conflict – Strait of Hormuz,” MEMAN said the conflict fundamentally altered global petroleum trade routes after the strategic waterway became temporarily inaccessible.

The report explained that suppliers increasingly shifted cargoes from the Persian Gulf to the U.S. Gulf Coast and West Africa as shipping companies sought safer alternative routes.

According to MEMAN, “The start of the conflict in the Middle East on 28th February 2026 and the subsequent temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz significantly reshaped global crude oil and petroleum product trade flows during the first half of the year. Under normal market conditions, the Gulf serves as the primary export hub for refined petroleum products moving to Europe, Asia and parts of Africa.”

It continued, “However, with access through the Strait severely restricted, cargoes were rerouted to alternative supply sources, particularly from the U.S. Gulf Coast and West Africa. The longer sailing distances, coupled with higher freight and insurance costs, increased delivered product costs and placed additional pressure on global shipping capacity.”

MEMAN further stated, “Under normal conditions, some Gulf-origin cargoes could reach key Asian markets in approximately 18 days via the Strait of Hormuz; however, rerouting around longer alternative routes extended voyage times to nearly 40 days, significantly delaying supply flows and increasing logistical costs. The disruptions reinforced the importance of diversified refining centers and demonstrated the growing strategic role of Atlantic Basin suppliers in maintaining global product availability during supply shocks.”

The first half of 2026 was one of the most volatile periods for Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector since the full deregulation of the petrol market. Pump prices became fully responsive to movements in international crude oil prices, foreign exchange fluctuations, freight costs and supply chain disruptions following the removal of petrol subsidies.

Although the operational expansion of the 700,000-barrels-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery substantially reduced Nigeria’s reliance on imported petrol during the review period, local refining capacity was still insufficient to meet peak national demand, prompting the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority to approve imports by selected marketers to maintain energy security.

The report underscores the opportunities and challenges of Nigeria’s transition to a market-driven downstream sector, where increased domestic refining has strengthened supply resilience but global geopolitical events continue to exert a significant influence on domestic fuel prices.

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