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Naira hits two-year high at 1,347/$

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The naira has strengthened sharply in recent weeks, reaching one of its strongest levels in nearly two years, even as rising foreign portfolio inflows increase the risk of investor profit-taking later in the year, according to a macro update by CardinalStone.

According to the report, the naira has witnessed a steep appreciation in the official market (+6.9 per cent year to date), reaching one of the strongest levels of the past two years (1,347.78/$ on Monday), which indicates improved liquidity conditions in the official foreign-exchange window.

However, the spread between the official and parallel markets persisted, with the parallel market initially trading at about a 5.7 per cent premium before narrowing to roughly 3.2 per cent following renewed FX interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria.

CardinalStone said the narrowing spread suggests “there was more liquidity in the official window than in the parallel market.”

Last week, the apex bank permitted licensed Bureau de Change operators to access FX through authorised dealers at prevailing market rates, with a weekly purchase limit of $150,000 per BDC subject to KYC requirements. BDCs must also sell unused balances within 24 hours to prevent hoarding, while cash transactions are capped at 25 per cent of total FX trades, with settlement required through licensed financial institutions.

CardinalStone noted that with 82 licensed BDCs, potential supply to the segment could reach about $50m monthly, which is below the more than $1bn supplied monthly before COVID-19.

The disparity, the report said, reflects “material improvements in the FX market that reduced speculative demand and routed most corporate FX requirements to the official window”.

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Still, the renewed supply has eased retail FX pressures, helping compress the parallel market premium.

On the foreign portfolio investment side, the analysts warned that continued currency gains could trigger portfolio rebalancing by foreign investors.

“Nigeria’s carry trade remains one of the most compelling across EM and frontier markets, continuing to attract sizable foreign portfolio inflows. We estimate outstanding FPI positioning at roughly $12.0–$14.0bn.

“Working with the assumption that a significant proportion of the 2025 inflows entered the Nigerian market at a rate of N1,500.00/$, we estimate FX gains of 22.4 per cent on currency alone if the naira strengthens to the midpoint of N1,200.00/$ to N1,250.00/$. Such a gain could potentially increase the risk of foreign portfolio exits, especially considering a likely build-up in uncertainties ahead of the general elections,” said the experts.

Ahead of Monday’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting of the CBN, the analysts noted that the indicators likely to shape the committee’s decision were sending mixed signals.

“On one side, inflation is moderating and short-term rates are converging around 22.0 per cent, which is about 500 bps lower than the MPR of 27.0 per cent. On the flipside, the recent body language of the CBN shows low tolerance for liquidity after the governor stated at the National Economic Conference that the liquidity overhang is a major risk to the stability achieved through recent policy reforms.

“So far this year, the CBN has net-issued N10.9 tn through OMO and has left the SDF rate attractive for banks to deposit with the CBN in a bid to avoid liquidity stoking renewed inflationary pressure. The CBN is also concerned about election-related liquidity, which is expected to become more pronounced in the second half of the year. Furthermore, of the total expected liquidity of N44.2 tn in 2026, over 75.0 per cent is expected in the first half of 2026.

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It stated, “As such, we perceive that the CBN may be inclined towards holding the policy rate constant to signal its concern about liquidity risk while making an adjustment to the asymmetric corridor to align the SDF rate to OMO yields with a view to guarding the attractiveness of OMO and securing banks’ presence as key counterparties to investing FPIs. We see a 60.0 per cent probability of this view panning out and a 40.0 per cent probability of an indicative 50-100 bps rate cut.”

Looking ahead, CardinalStone said the forward-market pricing suggests a weaker currency trajectory later in the year. Six-month non-deliverable forwards indicate a rate near N1,449.96/$ in the early second half, with CardinalStone’s base-case range set at N1,350–1,450/$ for 2026.

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Customs hand over seized N40.7m petrol to NMDPRA

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The Comptroller-General of Customs, Adewale Adeniyi, on Friday handed over 1,650 jerrycans of Premium Motor Spirit, worth N40.7 million, to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority for further investigation.

Addressing journalists at the handover ceremony held at the Customs Training College in Ikeja, Adeniyi said the seized fuel was intercepted at various locations, including Badagry, Owode, Seme, and other axes within Lagos State.

Represented by the National Coordinator of Operation Whirlwind, Deputy Comptroller-General Abubakar Aliyu, Adeniyi said the contraband was intercepted over the past nine weeks.

“In the space of nine weeks, our operatives intensified surveillance and enforcement across critical border communities. A total of 1,650 jerrycans of 25 litres each were seized along notorious smuggling routes, including Adodo, Seme, Owode Apa, Ajilete, Idjaun, Ilaro, Badagry, Idiroko, and Imeko. The total duty-paid value of the PMS is N40.7 million,” Adeniyi said.

He added that three tankers used to transport the fuel were carrying 60,000, 45,000, and 49,000 litres respectively, totalling 154,000 litres of PMS.

According to Adeniyi, the interception was the result of intelligence-driven operations and the vigilance of Operation Whirlwind in safeguarding Nigeria’s economy and energy security.

He explained that the transportation and movement of petroleum products are governed by regulatory frameworks and standard operating procedures designed to prevent diversion, smuggling, hoarding, and economic sabotage.

“These items contravened the established Standard Operating Procedures of Operation Whirlwind,” Adeniyi said, emphasising that such violations undermine government policy, distort market stability, and deprive the nation of critical revenue.

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He warned that border corridors such as Owode, Seme, and Badagry remain sensitive economic arteries. “These routes have historically been exploited for illegal cross-border petroleum movement. Under our watch, there will be no safe haven for economic sabotage,” he said.

Adeniyi said the handover to NMDPRA reflects inter-agency collaboration. “While Customs enforces border control and anti-smuggling mandates, NMDPRA regulates distribution and ensures compliance with downstream laws. This collaboration ensures due process, transparency, and regulatory integrity,” he said.

Representing NMDPRA, Mrs. Grace Dauda said the agency ensures that petroleum products produced in Nigeria are consumed domestically. “It is unfortunate that some businessmen attempt to smuggle the product out of the country. The public must work together to stop economic sabotage,” she said.

Operation Whirlwind is a special tactical enforcement operation launched by the Nigeria Customs Service in 2024 to combat cross-border smuggling of petroleum products, particularly PMS, and other contraband that threaten Nigeria’s economic security. It was established in response to a surge in illegal fuel diversion across the country.

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Stocks drop, oil rises after Trump Iran threat

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Most Asia equities fell and oil prices rose on Friday after Donald Trump ratcheted up Middle East tensions by hinting at possible military strikes on Iran if it did not make a “meaningful deal” in nuclear talks.

The remarks fanned geopolitical concerns and cast a pall over a tentative rebound in markets following an AI-fuelled sell-off this month.

Traders are also looking ahead to the release of US data later in the day that will provide a fresh snapshot of the world’s top economy.

A slew of forecast-beating figures over the past few days have lifted optimism about the outlook but tempered expectations for more interest rate cuts.

The US president told the inaugural meeting of the “Board of Peace”, his initiative to secure stability in Gaza, that Tehran should make a deal.

“It’s proven to be over the years not easy to make a meaningful deal with Iran. We have to make a meaningful deal otherwise bad things happen,” he said, as he deployed warships, fighter jets and other military hardware to the region.

He warned that Washington “may have to take it a step further” without any agreement, adding: “You’re going to be finding out over the next probably 10 days.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier warned: “If the ayatollahs make a mistake and attack us, they will receive a response they cannot even imagine.”

The threats come days after the United States and Iran held a second round of Omani-mediated talks in Geneva as Washington looks to prevent the country from getting a nuclear bomb, which Tehran says it is not pursuing.

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The prospect of a conflict in the crude-rich Middle East has sent oil prices surging this week, and they extended the gains Friday to sit at their highest levels since June.

Equity traders were also spooked.

Hong Kong fell as it reopened from a three-day break, while Tokyo, Sydney, Wellington and Bangkok were also down. However, Seoul continued to rally to a fresh record thanks to more tech buying, with Singapore, Manila and Mumbai also up.

City Index market analyst Matt Simpson said a strike was not certain.

“At its core, this looks like pressure and leverage rather than a prelude to invasion,” he wrote.

“The US is pairing military readiness with stalled nuclear negotiations, signalling it has credible strike options if talks fail. That doesn’t automatically translate into boots on the ground or a regime-change campaign.

“While military assets dominate headlines, diplomacy is still in motion. The fact talks are continuing at all suggests both sides are still probing for a diplomatic off-ramp before tensions harden further.”

Shares in Jakarta slipped even after Trump and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto reached a trade deal after months of wrangling.

The accord sets a 19 percent tariff on Indonesian goods entering the United States. The Southeast Asian country had been threatened with a potential 32 percent levy before the pact.

Jakarta also agreed to $33 billion in purchases of US energy commodities, agricultural products and aviation-related goods, including Boeing aircraft.

– Key figures at around 0700 GMT –

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.1 percent at 56,825.70 (close)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.7 percent at 26,508.98

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Shanghai – Composite: Closed for holiday

West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.9 percent at $67.05 per barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: UP 0.9 percent at $72.27 per barrel

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1756 from $1.1767 on Thursday

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3448 from $1.3458

Euro/pound: DOWN at 87.42 pence from 87.43 pence

Dollar/yen: UP at 155.17 yen from 155.07 yen

New York – Dow: DOWN 0.5 percent at 49,395.16 (close)

London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.6 percent at 10,627.04 (close)

AFP

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FG defers 70% of 2025 capital budget to 2026

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The Federal Government has said it will implement 30 per cent of the 2025 capital budget before the end of November, as part of measures to fast-track project execution and clear outstanding obligations.

It also stated that the remaining 70 per cent has been rolled over into the 2026 capital budget to ensure seamless implementation. The move follows a directive to Ministries, Departments, and Agencies to comply strictly with procurement rules in the execution and payment of capital projects under the extended 2025 budget cycle.

In a statement on Thursday by the Director of Press and Public Relations at the Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation, Bawa Mokwa, the government said MDAs had been instructed to align fully with the Public Procurement Act in implementing the 2025 and 2026 capital budgets.

The Minister of State for Finance, Mrs Doris Uzoka-Anite, gave the directive during a stakeholders’ meeting on the implementation of the extended 2025 Capital Budget held at the Federal Ministry of Finance in Abuja.

She stressed that capital disbursements must follow due process.

The statement read, “Mrs Uzoka-Anite emphasised that all capital payments must comply with the principles of the Procurement Act and that capital projects must be backed by cash before execution. She warned that no capital payment should be processed outside approved procurement procedures.”

She added that the country has sufficient funds to settle outstanding obligations and urged MDAs to update their documentation to enable quicker processing of payments.

The statement noted, “The Minister further stated that the nation has adequate funds to settle pending payments and urged MDAs to review and update their documentation to facilitate the timely processing of payments.”

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Providing further details, the Accountant-General of the Federation, Dr Shamseldeen Ogunjimi, disclosed that the Government Integrated Financial Management Information System had been fully restored.

Ogunjimi reiterated that warrants had already been issued to MDAs and announced that Treasury House would begin implementation of the 30 per cent component of the 2025 budget by the end of next week.

The statement read, “Dr Ogunjimi explained that 30 per cent of the 2025 Capital Budget will be implemented between now and 30 November 2026, while the remaining 70 per cent has been rolled over into the 2026 Capital Budget to ensure seamless implementation, in line with the directive of President Bola Tinubu.

“He reiterated that warrants have already been issued to MDAs and announced that Treasury House will commence implementation of the 30 per cent component of the 2025 Budget by the end of next week.”

The decision effectively means that a significant portion of last year’s capital allocations will now be executed within the current fiscal window, while the bulk has been carried forward into the 2026 capital framework to avoid disruption of ongoing projects.

Earlier in his welcome address, the Director of Funds, Mr Steve Ehikhamenor, cautioned MDAs against exceeding approved allocations. He urged them to avoid budget overruns and to adhere strictly to approved project items and their corresponding values.

He also advised agencies not to exceed the amounts specified in their warrants, to return any unutilised or excess funds to the Treasury, and to work closely with GIFMIS officials for technical support.

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The PUNCH earlier in December 2025 exclusively reported that the Federal Government ordered ministries, departments, and agencies to carry over 70 per cent of their 2025 capital budget into the 2026 fiscal year as the administration moved to prioritise the completion of existing projects and contain spending pressures in the face of weak revenues.

The directive was contained in the 2026 Abridged Budget Call Circular issued by the Federal Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning and circulated to ministers, service chiefs, heads of agencies, and other senior government officials in Abuja.

The circular stated that only 30 per cent of the 2025 capital budget would be released within the year, while the remaining 70 per cent would form the basis of the 2026 capital budget, replacing the traditional rollover approach.

However, the Federal Government did not release the 30 per cent earmarked for 2025, resulting in its deferral into 2026, as ministers raised concerns over the non-release of funds for capital projects.

The PUNCH earlier reported that ministers in charge of key infrastructure and service-delivery agencies are grappling with a severe funding squeeze, as figures showed that MDAs received less than N1tn for capital projects in the first seven months of 2025.

The data used for this report was the most up-to-date available from the Budget Office of the Federation, as the agency had yet to release comprehensive full-year implementation figures, despite the fiscal year being well advanced.

An analysis of data from the Budget Office of the Federation’s Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper (2026–2028) showed that while N18.53tn was appropriated for capital expenditure for “MDAs and others” in 2025, the January–July pro rata benchmark stood at N10.81tn.

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However, actual capital releases to MDAs and related entities during the period amounted to just N834.80bn. That left a pro rata shortfall of about N9.98tn and a performance rate of only 7.72 per cent within the seven-month window.

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