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Rising debt: Financial expert, Idakolo x-rays Nigeria’s situation

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Nigerians have expressed divergent views over the incessant loans taken by the federal government, which has bloated the country’s external debts.

It was reports that the Senate recently approved President Bola Tinubu’s external borrowing plan of over $21 billion for the 2025–2026 fiscal cycle, paving the way for the full implementation of the 2025 Appropriation Act.

The comprehensive borrowing package includes $21.19bn, in direct foreign loans, €4bn, ¥15bn, a $65m grant and domestic borrowing through government bonds, totaling approximately N757bn.

Nigeria’s total public debt climbed to N144.67 trillion ($94.23 billion) as of December 31, 2024, reflecting a significant increase of 48.58% compared to N97.34 trillion ($108.23 billion) recorded at the end of December 2023.

This latest figure was disclosed by the Debt Management Office (DMO) in its report on the country’s public debt profile.

The report also indicated a quarter-on-quarter rise of 1.65% from the N142.32 trillion ($88.89 billion) recorded at the end of September 2024, highlighting the continued increase in the nation’s debt burden within the final quarter of the year.

Reacting, the Presidential Candidate of the Labour Party in the 2023 general election, Peter Obi, lamented what he described as the reckless borrowing by this regime without accountability.

“As our GDP before rebasing was about N269.2 trillion (about $180 billion), the government has borrowed the equivalent of nearly 70% of our previous GDP. 7.Even after the rebasing, which pushed our GDP to about N372.8 trillion (about $243.7 billion), the government would have borrowed about 50.16% of the new GDP (with the approved 8.loans), the highest debt-to-GDP ratio in our history as a nation,” he said.

Similarly, the African Democratic Congress, ADC, condemned the Tinubu administration over what it called fiscal vandalism, saying the president is borrowing far more than his predecessor, Late Muhammadu Buhari, and placing Nigeria on the edge of a financial disaster.

The newly formed opposition coalition said President Tinubu’s government has borrowed more in two years than Buhari did in eight, warning that the country’s total debt could hit ₦200 trillion before the end of 2025.

“The African Democratic Congress (ADC) is deeply concerned by the Tinubu administration’s dangerous obsession with borrowing. What Nigerians are witnessing, following the approval of a fresh $21 billion in foreign loans, is nothing short of a calculated decision to mortgage the country’s future just to cover up the failures of today,” it said.

However, a financial expert and the Chief Executive Officer of SD & D Capital Management, Gbolade Idakolo, said it was not a bad idea for the government to take additional loan if it would be of immense benefit to the infrastructure development and to deepen the country’s economic aspiration.

He, however, decried that sometimes the loans that were taken by previous administrations were not directly applied to what could bring return for the repayment of those loans, adding that when a project is executed at very exorbitant cost, it does not have the means to be able to repay itself based on the way it was applied.

Idakolo expressed the belief that the National Assembly must have done a thorough review of the usage of the additional loan and the viability of the projects to repay the loan.

The financial expert urged the current administration not to tow the path of its predecessors that put infrastructure development at the expense of the government looking for revenue to repay loans.

“I am not against the government taking additional loans if it is going to be of immense benefit to infrastructure development and to be able to deepen our economic aspirations.

“For us to be viable economically, we need to improve on infrastructure development. And we have seen the way loans have gone in the past.

“We are seeing that sometimes the loans that were taken by previous administrations were not directly applied to what can bring return for the repayment of the loan.

“So even when those projects are executed at very exorbitant cost, it does not have the means to be able to repay itself based on the way it was applied.

“So presently, this government that has been taking loans, especially this recent one, I believe that the National Assembly should have done a thorough review of the usage of the loan and the viability of the projects that the facility is going to be for, and the capacity of that facility to be able to repay the loan.

“What can actually help Nigeria is for us to do targeted projects that can improve our infrastructure development to complement our economic aspirations.

“And when that is done, this project should be able to have the capacity to repay the loan.

“So if this administration goes the way of the previous ones that put infrastructure development at the expense of the government also looking for revenue to repay those loans because those projects cannot repay itself, then we will be back to square one,” he said.

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Speed approvals, boost deepwater investments, NNPCL charges NUPRC

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has called on the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission to deepen its investment facilitation role, particularly around deepwater projects, to keep Nigeria competitive in the global energy market.

The Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPCL, Mr. Bayo Ojulari, made the call in an interview published on Wednesday in The Upstream Gaze, a special edition of the NUPRC’s in-house publication, commemorating the Commission’s fourth anniversary.

Ojulari commended the NUPRC for key achievements over the past four years, including the digitalisation of licensing and regulatory processes, improved crude oil measurement and metering systems, the successful conduct of bid rounds that attracted new investors, and progress in gas flare commercialisation and new domestic gas supply obligations.

He, however, stressed the need for the Commission to go further by strengthening its regulatory efficiency and deepening investor confidence in the country’s upstream environment.

“Going forward, I would urge the Commission to continue to prioritise investment facilitation, especially around deep-water projects, and to create even more efficient regulatory approval cycles. The global competition for capital is fierce, and Nigeria must remain attractive to investments,” Ojulari said.

The PUNCH reports that the commission earlier this year unveiled plans to unlock an additional 810,000 barrels of crude oil per day from Nigeria’s deepwater oil fields through a new cluster and nodal development initiative.

If fully implemented, the additional output could raise Nigeria’s total monthly crude production by approximately 2.51 million barrels per day with condensates.

This would significantly strengthen the country’s revenue generation capacity and improve compliance with OPEC+ production quotas.

Speaking on NNPCL’s investment outlook under his leadership, Ojulari said the company’s top priorities include making gas a transition fuel, growing national oil and gas production, and enhancing domestic energy security.

“We plan to unlock Nigeria’s over 200 trillion cubic feet of proven gas reserves to drive power generation, industrial growth, and exports,” he said.

According to him, the company is also committed to delivering on President Bola Tinubu’s directive to raise national crude oil production to three million barrels of oil per day and gas output to 12 billion standard cubic feet per day by 2030.

Ojulari explained that NNPCL’s production growth targets would be realised through brownfield and greenfield developments across onshore and shallow-water terrains, facilitating major Final Investment Decisions in deepwater, and accelerating exploration in frontier basins.

He added that NUPRC’s continued regulatory support remains pivotal, as NNPCL and its partners currently contribute over 95 per cent of national production.

The NNPCL boss disclosed that the company’s deliberate reforms have begun yielding tangible results, especially through the establishment of the NNPC Production War Room, the Industry-Wide Security Architecture, and Periodic Industry Leadership Engagements.

According to him, these initiatives have collectively driven up production efficiency, improved collaboration, and reduced oil theft across major corridors.

“The War Room, launched in mid-2024, has been a major success story, streamlining processes, resolving production bottlenecks, and sustaining base production,” he said.

Ojulari said the Industry-Wide Security Architecture had improved coordination between private security contractors, government agencies, regulators, and host communities, leading to better crude evacuation, terminal recovery, and reduced pipeline vandalism.

He revealed that these efforts have lifted Nigeria’s annual average crude and condensate output to over 1.7 million barrels per day, the highest since 2020, restoring confidence among key industry stakeholders.

Ojulari also highlighted the company’s efforts to enhance domestic refining capacity and ensure long-term energy security.

“We are finalising the rehabilitation of our refineries and pursuing strategic partnerships to promote sustainable value creation and enhance commercial viability,” he said.

He added that NNPCL is supporting private sector refiners such as the Dangote Refinery and modular operators while securing long-term crude supply contracts and expanding logistics infrastructure, including pipelines and depots.

“Our goal goes beyond numbers. It’s about energy security, job creation, and building a vibrant downstream sector,” he added.

Ojulari reaffirmed that the company remains aligned with the Presidential Mandate to attract $60bn in new oil and gas investments by 2030, noting that ongoing collaboration between NNPCL and NUPRC is essential to achieving Nigeria’s production and energy transition ambitions.

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Nigeria imports 15bn litres of petrol despite Dangote refinery output

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Nigeria imported about 15.01 billion litres of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) between August 2024 and the first 10 days of October 2025, representing nearly 69 per cent of the total national petrol supply during the 15-month period. This is despite the fact that the Dangote refinery started petrol production in September 2024.

Figures from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority show that total PMS supply for the period stood at 21.68 billion litres, with 6.67 billion litres, or 31 per cent, coming from domestic refining. The data, titled Import vs Domestic Supply Performance (PMS Daily Average Supply – August 2024 to October 2025), captured supply trends over 15 months, highlighting the gradual rise in local production and a corresponding drop in imports.

According to the breakdown, imported petrol averaged 44.60 million litres per day in August 2024 and rose to 54.30 million litres per day in September 2024, marking the peak of import dependence during the period. This was a time when the Dangote refinery began PMS supply to the local market.

It was noted that imports began to decline steadily, falling to 24.15 million litres per day by January 2025, 19.26 million litres per day in September 2025, and 15.11 million litres per day within the first 10 days of October 2025.

The decline in petrol imports showed that the Dangote refinery is gradually taking a significant share of the market, but this comes with stiff competition from petrol importers, who repeatedly accused Aliko Dangote of stifling competitors with consistent price reductions.

As domestic refining grew consistently through the period, local production, which stood at 6.43 million litres per day in September 2024, increased to 22.66 million litres per day in January 2025 before stabilising around 20 million litres per day in subsequent months. By October 2025, the Dangote refinery was producing an average of 18.93 million litres per day, exceeding imports for that month.

The data also showed notable supply fluctuations across the months as total daily PMS supply peaked at 60.73 million litres in September 2024 before dropping to 44.08 million litres in April 2025 and further to 34.04 million litres by October 2025. The variations reflected shifts in both import availability and refinery operations.

This is an indication that daily consumption has dropped significantly from an average of 60.73 million litres per day in September 2024 to 51.57 million litres in July 2025, 41.86 million in August, 34.86 million in September and 34.04 million per day in the first 10 days of October 2025.

Recall that the Federal Government totally deregulated the petrol sector in September last year, stopping the controversial fuel subsidies which the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited was paying on imported petrol.

A month-by-month analysis revealed that the highest domestic output was recorded in January 2025, with a daily average of 22.66 million litres, while the lowest was in August 2024, when no local production was recorded because Dangote had yet to commence production at that time.

The highest total supply was in September 2024 at 60.73 million litres per day, followed by October and November 2024, when total daily supply averaged 56.01 and 55.75 million litres, respectively. By the end of the review period, cumulative petrol imports had reached 15,009.85 million litres, while domestic production amounted to 6,672.44 million litres, giving a combined total of 21,682.29 million litres supplied over the 445 days between August 2024 and October 1-10, 2025.

The figures underline the ongoing transition in Nigeria’s petrol supply structure, showing a gradual but measurable increase in the contribution of domestic refining. However, the data also confirmed that imports continued to dominate the national supply mix for most of the period.

It could be recalled that while marketers insisted on importation, the Dangote refinery has been exporting petrol to other countries, including the United States. The 650,000 refinery has consistently boasted of its capacity to meet local fuel demands while exporting to foreign countries.

Aliko Dangote’s plan for building the refinery was to end Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel despite being an oil-producing nation. However, marketers have continued to import petrol into Nigeria, competing heavily with the refinery.

Recently, the Dangote refinery challenged marketers to bring their trucks for fuel loading, boasting that it has over 310 million litres of petrol in its ranks. The Vice President of the Dangote Group, Devakumar Edwin, stated that marketers were allowed to bring any trucks for loading at the gantry, as the refinery had enough fuel for the local market and for exports.

“I have more than 310 million litres of PMS as of today inside my tanks, apart from the production which is coming out every day. Bring your tankers. We will load. Any number of tankers you bring, we’ll load. It’s a challenge I’m throwing today. No one can come and tell me I’m not loading. We can load any number of tankers you bring. So, you can see whether I have the capacity to produce or not. We have more than 310 million litres as of now,” he stressed.

The Dangote refinery had in September exported more fuel to foreign nations when Saudi Aramco and others in the Middle East Gulf closed refineries for maintenance.

A senior officer at the Dangote refinery told our correspondent that the $20bn Lekki-based plant exported large volumes of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol), aviation fuel, and diesel to other countries in August.

The official, who spoke in confidence as he was not authorised to speak with the press, said, “We export PMS, diesel and aviation fuel.”

Our correspondent gathered that the Dangote refinery had supplied two long-range cargoes of fuel to the Mideast Gulf region between June and July. According to Argus Media, a heavy refinery turnaround season in the Mideast Gulf was expected to exacerbate an already tight gasoline market in the fourth quarter, prompting key regional suppliers to boost imports.

In February, the Dangote refinery said it sold two cargoes of aviation fuel to Saudi Aramco. Aliko Dangote announced that the refinery achieved a significant milestone by successfully exporting the two cargoes of jet fuel to Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil producer.

Dangote said the refinery was reaching the ambitious goals it set for itself as it ramps up production.

“We are reaching the ambitious goals we set for ourselves, and I’m pleased to announce that we’ve just sold two cargoes of jet fuel to Saudi Aramco,” he said in February, adding that since its production began in 2024, the refinery has steadily increased its output.

Some months ago, he disclosed that the oil refinery had begun exporting PMS to other countries of the world. According to him, between June and July 2025, the refinery exported up to one million tonnes of petrol.

“Today, Nigeria has actually become a net exporter of refined products. From the beginning of June to date (July 22), we have exported about one million tonnes of PMS within the last 50 days,” he said.

The NMDPRA also testified that the Dangote refinery supplies an average of 20 million litres of petrol into the local market.

“Without a shadow of a doubt, the operation of the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote refinery has changed the supply dynamics, with an average daily contribution of up to 20 million litres, undoubtedly with potential for a future ramp-up,” NMDPRA Chief Executive, Farouk Ahmed, said recently in Lagos.

The data underscores Nigeria’s ongoing transition from heavy reliance on imported petrol to a more balanced supply structure driven by domestic refining. While the country still depends significantly on foreign fuel, the steady growth in local production, particularly from the Dangote refinery, signals a gradual shift toward self-sufficiency.

However, the competition between importers and the refinery, coupled with market pricing challenges, suggests that achieving full local dominance will take time. With refining capacity expanding and consumption patterns adjusting, Nigeria appears to be entering a new phase in its downstream petroleum landscape, one defined by increased domestic output, reduced imports, and the potential to finally end decades of fuel dependence.

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Reps to mediate in PENGASSAN, Dangote refinery dispute

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The House of Representatives on Tuesday resolved to intervene in the recent face-off between members of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria and the Dangote Refinery, which had disrupted petroleum product distribution nationwide.

The resolution of the House followed the consideration and adoption of a motion of urgent public importance co-sponsored by Kano and Sokoto lawmakers, Alhassan Doguwa and Abdussamad Dasuki, respectively, at Tuesday’s plenary.

Titled: “Need to protect private investment from adversarial unionism,” the lawmakers drew the attention of their colleagues to the significance of the Dangote Refinery, describing it as the largest private petroleum refinery in Africa.

The face-off between PENGASSAN and the Dangote Refinery led to an industrial action which commenced on September 29, 2025, disrupting the operations at the $20bn refinery.

It also led to a disruption in Nigeria’s crude oil production, with a reported daily loss of approximately 200,000 barrels over three days.

The disruption worsened the petroleum supply situation across the country, resulting in scarcity and long queues at filling stations in several states, resulting in severe hardship for millions of Nigerians.

Speaking on the motion, Doguwa, who represents Doguwa/Tudun Wada Federal Constituency, Kano State, stressed the need to protect the Dangote Refinery given its strategic significance to the nation’s economy.

He said, “The House is aware that the Dangote Refinery is a strategic private investment of immense national importance, with the potential to guarantee energy security, reduce import dependency, generate employment, and conserve foreign exchange.

“We are aware that the Dangote Refinery operates within a Free Trade Zone, and therefore falls under the regulatory framework of the Nigeria Export Processing Zones Authority, particularly Section 18(5) of the Nigeria Export Processing Zones Act which clearly states that ‘Employment in the free zone shall be governed by rules and regulations made by the Authority and not subject to the provisions of any enactments relating to employment matters.’

“The House is concerned that actions by labour unions that disregard the legal protections conferred on Free Zones under the NEPZA Act not only constitute a breach of law but also create a hostile investment environment that may deter future local and foreign investors;

“We are worried that if private investments of strategic national importance are continually subjected to unlawful disruptions by adversarial unionism, Nigeria risks not only the failure of key economic assets but also the erosion of investor confidence necessary for national growth and development.”

In his contribution, the member representing Chibok/Damboa/Gwoza Federal Constituency, Ahmad Jaha, urged the House to tread carefully, adding that the call for a probe as prayed by the motion was ill-timed.

Following the adoption of the motion, the House urged its leadership to broker peace between the two parties in the interest of the nation.

It also urged the Federal Ministries of Labour and Employment, Industry, Trade and Investment, as well as Justice, to “Jointly develop and implement a national framework or set of policies to safeguard private investments of strategic national importance from adversarial and unlawful union actions.”

It further charged the Federal Ministry of Justice and NEPZA to ensure full enforcement and compliance with the provisions of Section 18(5) of the Nigeria Export Processing Zones Act in all relevant Free Zone operations.

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