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CBN – Lending rates may fall as inflation eases

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The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Mr Olayemi Cardoso, has hinted that lending rates may decline in the coming months as inflation continues to ease, raising hopes for improved access to credit and stronger investment flows.

Cardoso gave the assurance during a fireside chat at the European Business Chamber (Eurocham Nigeria) C-Level Forum in Lagos on Saturday.

A statement by the CBN on Sunday reaffirmed the bank’s commitment to macroeconomic stability, a stronger banking sector, and positioning Nigeria as a top investment destination.

According to the CBN governor, headline inflation, though still high, has begun to slow down, creating the possibility of lower lending rates once price stability is further consolidated.

“He stated that there is a substantial potential for interest rates to decrease in the future as inflation continues to decline and as markets become more efficient in allocating capital,” the statement read.

He was also quoted in the statement as saying, “That is the environment in which stronger corporate lending and higher levels of investment will naturally follow.”

Cardoso acknowledged that high lending rates have weighed on businesses but explained that the CBN’s priority has been to restore confidence and strengthen the system’s resilience.

“We will protect the stability that has been re-established in the financial system with the utmost zeal,” the statement quoted him as saying. “Our primary objective is to maintain that stability while simultaneously addressing inflation and ensuring that the financial system is sufficiently resilient to facilitate corporate lending and investment.”

The Governor highlighted the progress of the ongoing bank recapitalisation exercise, which he described as critical for safeguarding the financial system.

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He explained that the new minimum capital requirements would produce stronger institutions capable of withstanding shocks and financing broader economic growth.

He further stressed that technology-driven solutions and the deepening of financial inclusion were key priorities for the Bank.

According to him, expanding access to fintech platforms and supporting innovation will play a central role in tackling poverty and bridging financing gaps.

Cardoso also pointed to improved coordination with the fiscal authorities as a positive shift in Nigeria’s policy environment, noting that collaboration with the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Trade and Industry, and the Budget Office “will enable the country to sustain reforms and achieve long-term stability.”

Speaking on Nigeria’s position in the global economy, the CBN Governor remarked that the country’s size and strategic location gave it a unique role to play in West Africa and beyond.

“The urgency of addressing our own affairs is underscored by the ongoing geopolitical changes,” he observed.

The statement added, “Nigeria is a market that is both large and appealing in its own right, and it is also situated at the entrance to the broader continent and West Africa. This underscores the importance of maintaining stability at home.”

Earlier, Eurocham President Yann Gilbert praised the forum as an important platform for dialogue between European businesses and Nigerian policymakers.

He noted that members of the chamber were committed to long-term partnerships in Nigeria, with a focus on job creation and sustainable investment.

The CBN raised its benchmark lending rate six times in 2024, pushing the Monetary Policy Rate from 18.75 per cent at the start of the year to 27.50 per cent by December.

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The aggressive tightening cycle was aimed at stemming runaway inflation and stabilising the naira, which had been under sustained pressure.

Records show that the series of hikes, delivered across all six MPC meetings in 2024, represented the steepest monetary tightening in recent history.

Each decision was followed by statements emphasising the Bank’s resolve to restore price stability and anchor investor confidence in the domestic economy.

The final increase, announced at the November meeting, brought the MPR to 27.50 per cent, its highest level on record.

However, 2025 has so far marked a pause in the tightening cycle. The CBN has held the rate unchanged at 27.50 per cent in each of its meetings this year, including those in February, May, and July.

It was earlier reported that businesses across Nigeria have ranked high interest rates as the most severe constraint affecting their operations in June 2025, overtaking long-standing challenges such as insecurity and poor electricity supply.

The CBN disclosed this in its June 2025 Business Expectations Survey, which polled 1,900 firms across the agriculture, services, and industrial sectors.

According to the report, high interest rates scored 75.6 on the constraint index, followed by insecurity at 75.2 and insufficient power supply at 74.3.

The Director-General of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Dr Chinyere Almona, earlier warned that retaining the MPR at 27.5 per cent translates to a significant burden on businesses.

“We must restate that the interest rate at 27.5 per cent remains a depressing burden on businesses. We therefore desire to see a reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate,” Almona said.

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The next Monetary Policy Committee meeting is scheduled to be held on September 22 and 23, 2025, according to the Bank’s published calendar.

Market watchers are looking to that meeting for signals on whether the regulator will maintain its pause or begin to ease policy as inflation continues to ease.

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Lagos enforces 5% tax on gaming winnings

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The Lagos State Government has begun enforcing a five per cent withholding tax on gaming winnings from licensed gaming platforms operating within the state.

The Chief Executive Officer of the Lagos State Lotteries and Gaming Authority, Are Bashir, made this known in a public notice issued on Friday.

He stated that the policy, which takes immediate effect, applies to players’ net winnings and is to be deducted at the point of payout.

Bashir directed all licensed gaming operators in the state to comply immediately with the new tax framework in line with existing Nigerian tax laws and regulatory directives governing the gaming industry.

According to the notice, the five per cent deduction will be automatically withheld before winnings are paid to players and remitted to the Lagos State Internal Revenue Service as the statutory tax authority.

Bashir said the initiative is part of the state’s wider efforts to improve tax compliance, transparency and accountability in the fast-growing gaming sector.

“The measure forms part of Lagos’ broader drive to strengthen tax compliance, transparency, and accountability in the rapidly expanding gaming sector,” the notice read.

He said under the new arrangement, players are required to provide their National Identification Number (NIN) in line with Know Your Customer (KYC) regulations.

Bashir clarified that all deductions and remittances will be handled strictly by licensed gaming operators in accordance with regulatory requirements, adding that players will receive their winnings net of the statutory deduction, with proper records maintained to ensure transparency.

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He further noted that the withholding tax deducted will serve as a tax credit to the player.

“All licensed gaming operators in Lagos State have now been formally directed to commence the deductions with immediate effect,” the notice said.

Bashir reiterated that the policy is aimed at ensuring effective regulation of the gaming industry while aligning both operators and players with existing tax obligations in the state.

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Customs hand over seized N40.7m petrol to NMDPRA

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The Comptroller-General of Customs, Adewale Adeniyi, on Friday handed over 1,650 jerrycans of Premium Motor Spirit, worth N40.7 million, to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority for further investigation.

Addressing journalists at the handover ceremony held at the Customs Training College in Ikeja, Adeniyi said the seized fuel was intercepted at various locations, including Badagry, Owode, Seme, and other axes within Lagos State.

Represented by the National Coordinator of Operation Whirlwind, Deputy Comptroller-General Abubakar Aliyu, Adeniyi said the contraband was intercepted over the past nine weeks.

“In the space of nine weeks, our operatives intensified surveillance and enforcement across critical border communities. A total of 1,650 jerrycans of 25 litres each were seized along notorious smuggling routes, including Adodo, Seme, Owode Apa, Ajilete, Idjaun, Ilaro, Badagry, Idiroko, and Imeko. The total duty-paid value of the PMS is N40.7 million,” Adeniyi said.

He added that three tankers used to transport the fuel were carrying 60,000, 45,000, and 49,000 litres respectively, totalling 154,000 litres of PMS.

According to Adeniyi, the interception was the result of intelligence-driven operations and the vigilance of Operation Whirlwind in safeguarding Nigeria’s economy and energy security.

He explained that the transportation and movement of petroleum products are governed by regulatory frameworks and standard operating procedures designed to prevent diversion, smuggling, hoarding, and economic sabotage.

“These items contravened the established Standard Operating Procedures of Operation Whirlwind,” Adeniyi said, emphasising that such violations undermine government policy, distort market stability, and deprive the nation of critical revenue.

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He warned that border corridors such as Owode, Seme, and Badagry remain sensitive economic arteries. “These routes have historically been exploited for illegal cross-border petroleum movement. Under our watch, there will be no safe haven for economic sabotage,” he said.

Adeniyi said the handover to NMDPRA reflects inter-agency collaboration. “While Customs enforces border control and anti-smuggling mandates, NMDPRA regulates distribution and ensures compliance with downstream laws. This collaboration ensures due process, transparency, and regulatory integrity,” he said.

Representing NMDPRA, Mrs. Grace Dauda said the agency ensures that petroleum products produced in Nigeria are consumed domestically. “It is unfortunate that some businessmen attempt to smuggle the product out of the country. The public must work together to stop economic sabotage,” she said.

Operation Whirlwind is a special tactical enforcement operation launched by the Nigeria Customs Service in 2024 to combat cross-border smuggling of petroleum products, particularly PMS, and other contraband that threaten Nigeria’s economic security. It was established in response to a surge in illegal fuel diversion across the country.

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Stocks drop, oil rises after Trump Iran threat

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Most Asia equities fell and oil prices rose on Friday after Donald Trump ratcheted up Middle East tensions by hinting at possible military strikes on Iran if it did not make a “meaningful deal” in nuclear talks.

The remarks fanned geopolitical concerns and cast a pall over a tentative rebound in markets following an AI-fuelled sell-off this month.

Traders are also looking ahead to the release of US data later in the day that will provide a fresh snapshot of the world’s top economy.

A slew of forecast-beating figures over the past few days have lifted optimism about the outlook but tempered expectations for more interest rate cuts.

The US president told the inaugural meeting of the “Board of Peace”, his initiative to secure stability in Gaza, that Tehran should make a deal.

“It’s proven to be over the years not easy to make a meaningful deal with Iran. We have to make a meaningful deal otherwise bad things happen,” he said, as he deployed warships, fighter jets and other military hardware to the region.

He warned that Washington “may have to take it a step further” without any agreement, adding: “You’re going to be finding out over the next probably 10 days.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier warned: “If the ayatollahs make a mistake and attack us, they will receive a response they cannot even imagine.”

The threats come days after the United States and Iran held a second round of Omani-mediated talks in Geneva as Washington looks to prevent the country from getting a nuclear bomb, which Tehran says it is not pursuing.

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The prospect of a conflict in the crude-rich Middle East has sent oil prices surging this week, and they extended the gains Friday to sit at their highest levels since June.

Equity traders were also spooked.

Hong Kong fell as it reopened from a three-day break, while Tokyo, Sydney, Wellington and Bangkok were also down. However, Seoul continued to rally to a fresh record thanks to more tech buying, with Singapore, Manila and Mumbai also up.

City Index market analyst Matt Simpson said a strike was not certain.

“At its core, this looks like pressure and leverage rather than a prelude to invasion,” he wrote.

“The US is pairing military readiness with stalled nuclear negotiations, signalling it has credible strike options if talks fail. That doesn’t automatically translate into boots on the ground or a regime-change campaign.

“While military assets dominate headlines, diplomacy is still in motion. The fact talks are continuing at all suggests both sides are still probing for a diplomatic off-ramp before tensions harden further.”

Shares in Jakarta slipped even after Trump and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto reached a trade deal after months of wrangling.

The accord sets a 19 percent tariff on Indonesian goods entering the United States. The Southeast Asian country had been threatened with a potential 32 percent levy before the pact.

Jakarta also agreed to $33 billion in purchases of US energy commodities, agricultural products and aviation-related goods, including Boeing aircraft.

– Key figures at around 0700 GMT –

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.1 percent at 56,825.70 (close)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.7 percent at 26,508.98

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Shanghai – Composite: Closed for holiday

West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.9 percent at $67.05 per barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: UP 0.9 percent at $72.27 per barrel

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1756 from $1.1767 on Thursday

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3448 from $1.3458

Euro/pound: DOWN at 87.42 pence from 87.43 pence

Dollar/yen: UP at 155.17 yen from 155.07 yen

New York – Dow: DOWN 0.5 percent at 49,395.16 (close)

London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.6 percent at 10,627.04 (close)

AFP

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