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Crude earnings fall by N3.18tn amid output surge

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Nigeria’s crude oil exports declined by N3.18tn in the first half of 2025 despite an increase in production volumes, the latest foreign trade statistics report from the National Bureau of Statistics has shown.

It was observed that while the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission reported a 12.7 per cent rise in crude oil output during the period, export earnings from crude fell by more than 11 per cent year-on-year.

Between January and June 2025, crude oil exports totalled N24.92tn, down from N28.10tn in the same period of 2024. This represents an 11.3 per cent decline in value, or a loss of N3.18tn.

Further analysis of the foreign trade data from the NBS by The PUNCH showed that in the first quarter of 2025, crude exports stood at N12.96tn, compared to N15.49tn in Q1 2024. The difference of N2.53tn amounts to a 16.3 per cent fall. By the second quarter, the decline was less steep: exports dropped from N12.61tn in Q2 2024 to N11.97tn in Q2 2025, a reduction of N642bn or 5.1 per cent.

The contribution of crude oil to total exports also weakened. In Q1 2024, crude accounted for 80.8 per cent of Nigeria’s exports, but by Q1 2025 this had dropped to 62.9 per cent, a decline of nearly 18 percentage points. The downward trend continued in Q2, with crude making up 52.6 per cent of exports, compared to 71.2 per cent in Q2 2024 — a decline of about 18.6 percentage points.

By contrast, non-crude oil exports surged. In H1 2025, they more than doubled to N18.43tn, compared with N8.79tn in H1 2024 — a growth of 109.6 per cent or an additional N9.64tn. Non-oil exports alone rose from N3.74tn to N6.21tn, an increase of N2.47tn or 66 per cent.

Overall trade also expanded. Total exports in H1 2025 reached N43.35tn, up from N36.89tn in H1 2024, reflecting a 17.5 per cent increase. Imports, on the other hand, rose by a slimmer margin of 6.9 per cent, from N28.72tn in H1 2024 to N30.71tn in H1 2025.

This contributed to an improved trade balance, which grew by 54.6 per cent, from N8.17tn in H1 2024 to N12.64tn in H1 2025. The PUNCH further observed that crude oil’s dominance in Nigeria’s export profile is being eroded, with its share sliding from 76.2 per cent in H1 2024 to 57.5 per cent in H1 2025.

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The development highlights a paradox in Africa’s largest oil producer where rising output has not translated into stronger export performance, raising questions about domestic absorption, global oil demand, and pricing conditions. The data suggest that while Nigeria is pumping more crude, weaker global prices, rising domestic utilisation, or both, may be weighing on export receipts.

Earlier in March 2025, The PUNCH reported that Nigeria’s 2025 budget could come under pressure as crude oil prices slipped below the government’s benchmark projection of $75 per barrel. The situation, compounded by a dip in average daily crude production, was also expected to impact local refineries, including the Dangote plant and others.

While global factors such as falling oil prices may have contributed to the decline in export earnings, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has been supplying crude to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery under a naira-for-crude arrangement — a move analysts say could be diverting some volumes away from international markets.

Earlier in June 2025, The PUNCH reported that the Federal Government sold crude oil valued at N219.38bn to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in the first four months of 2025.

The government also earned $1.59m from crude oil exports in April 2025, during the period it suspended sales of domestic crude allocations to the Dangote refinery and local refiners. These details were contained in internal documents from the NNPCL, submitted at the Federation Account Allocation Committee meetings.

266.9m barrels crude

Nigeria pumped a total of 266.9 million barrels of crude oil between January and June 2025, according to figures obtained from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission by The PUNCH. The data show that the country recorded higher output across all six months compared to the same period in 2024, when production stood at 236.7 million barrels.

In January 2025, crude production rose to 47.7 million barrels, higher than the 44.2 million barrels recorded in January 2024. February output also increased to 41 million barrels, up from 38.3 million barrels in the same month of the previous year.

The upward trend extended into March, where production climbed to 43.4 million barrels, a gain of more than 5 million barrels compared to 38.2 million barrels in March 2024. April saw output reach 44.6 million barrels, rising by nearly 6 million barrels from the 38.7 million barrels recorded in April the previous year.

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May’s figures showed a further improvement, with Nigeria producing 45 million barrels compared to 39.1 million barrels in May 2024. The highest year-on-year increase came in June, when production hit 45.2 million barrels, up from 38.1 million barrels a year earlier, a difference of about 7.1 million barrels.

Overall, the first half of 2025 saw crude production rise by 30.2 million barrels compared with the same period in 2024, representing a growth rate of 12.7 per cent. When condensates are included, total liquid output for the period reached 303.2 million barrels, compared to 275 million barrels recorded in the first half of 2024.

Industry watchers say the steady increase in crude production reflects improved operating conditions in the oil sector, though they caution that challenges such as pipeline vandalism, theft, and underinvestment continue to pose risks.

However, the NUPRC earlier revealed a 50.2 per cent reduction in crude oil losses during the first seven months of 2025. In a recent statement by the Head of Media and Strategic Communications at NUPRC, Eniola Akinkuotu, it was noted that between January and July 2025, the country lost 2.04 million barrels of crude oil, averaging 9,600 barrels per day, which is the lowest level since 2009 when losses were recorded at 8,500 barrels per day.

The current figures represent a 94.57 per cent drop from the losses experienced in 2021. The statement read, “Between January and July 2025, crude oil losses were contained at 2.04 million barrels, averaging 9,600 barrels per day over the seven-month period. This marks a clear departure from the high-loss years that have long plagued the industry.

“By comparison, the entire 2024 calendar year recorded 4.1 million barrels lost at a daily average of 11,300 barrels. Remarkably, in just the first seven months of 2025, losses were cut by 50.2 per cent, with only 2.04 million barrels lost over the period.

“The figures for the period ending July 2025 also represent a dramatic 94.57 per cent drop in crude oil losses compared to the full year of 2021, when Nigeria lost a staggering 37.6 million barrels at a daily average of 102,900 barrels.”

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According to the statement, the progress was made possible by a combination of effective regulatory measures and collaboration with security agencies, oil operators, and local communities.

The NUPRC’s metering audit, aimed at ensuring accurate measurements of production and exports, has played a pivotal role in reducing discrepancies. NUPRC’s success is also attributed to the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act in 2021, which has significantly contributed to the downward trend in oil losses.

Also, the commission has adopted both kinetic and non-kinetic strategies to tackle the issue, continuing to work closely with stakeholders in the oil sector to ensure the country’s resources are better protected.

Earlier in June 2025, the Executive Coordinator of the Independent Petroleum Producers Group, Oyeleke Banmeke, said that crude oil theft in Nigeria has reduced significantly compared to figures recorded about two to three years ago.

Banmeke commended the current administration of President Bola Tinubu for improvements in security along the country’s oil-producing corridors, particularly in the Niger Delta.

Speaking earlier on the likely impact of crude oil prices on government revenue, an Energy Professor at the Lagos State University, Dayo Ayoade, said the drop in crude production prices would affect the budget adversely, though it would bring down fuel prices.

Ayoade also said that the government must do its best to achieve two million barrels per day, or the refineries will have to resort to imports, which may impact the fuel prices.

Similarly, Professor Adeola Adenikinju of the Department of Economics at the University of Ibadan argued that the decline in crude oil prices is like a two-edged sword. He said it would lower the prices of refined products, such as PMS.

“But macroeconomically, it’s going to have implications, especially for government revenue, simply because the two critical assumptions, you know, that would change the budget were the oil price and oil volume. So, if oil prices go down and persist, then that will mean that budget implementation will be very difficult,” he said.

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Read how Nigerians tap savings, loans to buy Dangote refinery shares

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Some Nigerians seeking to invest in the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE Initial Public Offering have turned to personal savings, loans and proceeds from the sale of assets to raise funds to buy shares, Saturday PUNCH has learnt.

Findings by our correspondents revealed strong interest in the shares among prospective retail investors, some of whom said they expected the investment to yield substantial returns in the future.

While some respondents said they were dipping into savings or raising funds through other means, others said the prevailing economic hardship had made it difficult for them to participate in the offer.

The refinery opened its IPO on Monday, September 14, giving Nigerians an opportunity to own equity in the company.

The offer comprises 4.1 billion ordinary shares priced at N525 each, with the company targeting about N2.15tn to part-fund an expansion that would nearly double the refinery’s capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day.

The minimum subscription is 10 shares, costing N5,250.

Dangote Group Chief Executive Officer, Aliko Dangote, said the low entry threshold was deliberately set to allow ordinary workers, including drivers, cooks and domestic staff, to become shareholders, describing the offer as “the IPO for the people.”

The offer is expected to close on October 13.

Investors turn to savings, loans

A staff member of the Federal Ministry of Works, David Adelabu, described the shares as expensive for struggling civil servants but said he considered the offer an opportunity to become a shareholder in the refinery.

He said, “I have small shares in some companies, including Glo and MTN, but Dangote’s shares will be the highest I will be buying. It is on the high side, but I feel this is an opportunity to become a shareholder in Dangote.

“I understand that the dividends are not going to be immediate, but I don’t mind even if it will entail selling a plot of land I have in Metumbi here in Minna. I will gladly do so.”

A trader in Dutse, Jigawa State, Adamu Bala, said he planned to use savings from his business to buy the shares.

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“I will not sell my house. I will use a small profit from my shop to buy,” he said.

Similarly, a civil servant, Fatima Mannir, said women in her group had started raising money through contributions, known as adashe, to participate in the offer.

“We have started raising money through adashe,” she said.

A trader in Damaturu, Yobe State, Malam Musa Ibrahim, said he invested part of his business savings after learning about the offer.

“I am using part of the money I have saved from my business.

“I believe that if I can invest a small amount now, it may become useful to me in the future. But I am also being careful because business is not easy at the moment,” he said.

Another resident, Aisha Mohammed, said she raised money by cutting down on some household expenses.

“I did not borrow money to buy the shares. I have been saving little by little, and when I heard about the offer, I decided to use part of what I had saved,” she said.

A businessman, Abdullahi Yusuf, however, said he obtained financial assistance from a friend to increase his subscription.

“I wanted to buy more shares than what my savings could afford, so I discussed it with a friend who agreed to lend me some money.

“I know that borrowing money to invest carries risks, but I am hoping that the investment will perform well. I will repay the money from my business income,” he said.

A petty trader, Hauwa Lawan, said she sold some personal belongings she no longer used and added the proceeds to her savings to finance her purchase.

“I sold some things that I was no longer using and added the money to my savings,” she said.

A farmer, Mallam Abdullahi Adamu, said he sold farm produce to raise about N500,000 to invest in the shares.

In Kano State, an investor, Abdulmalik Ibrahim, said he bought 10 shares for N5,250 using personal funds.

Hardship keeps some investors away

While some Nigerians are finding ways to participate in the IPO, others said economic pressures had put the investment beyond their reach.

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A civil servant in Kogi State, Saliu Joseph, said he would have loved to invest but had just paid his children’s school fees.

“Right now, I don’t think I can afford to participate unless a miracle happens,” he said.

A retired permanent secretary in the state, Bola Boro, also said he would not participate because he could not afford the investment at the moment.

“As a retired civil servant, I cannot afford such an amount to invest in the offer. Even though I am a fan of investment through the stock market, which I have been doing for years, I don’t think it will be convenient for me to participate considering the time frame of just one month,” he said.

A civil servant, Kuta Abdulahi, said the financial demands of his children’s education had left him unable to participate in the share offer.

“I must tell you the truth, I know about the Dangote Refinery shares, but I cannot even think of it at this time. My children are just resuming a new term in school. Where will I get the money for their school fees before thinking of buying shares? Please, I have a lot on my head,” he said.

Similarly, a vulcaniser, Ahmed Alkali, said his income was barely enough to meet his family’s basic needs, making investment in shares difficult.

“With the kind of job I do, I am working from hand to mouth. So, how can I buy shares when I have not eaten?” he asked.

Experts warn against borrowing

Investment experts, however, cautioned Nigerians against taking loans, selling properties or committing all their savings to the IPO, warning that equity investments carry risks.

Speaking with Saturday PUNCH, the Group Managing Director of Lancelot Group, Adebayo Adeleke, urged prospective investors to understand the risks associated with the capital market before committing their funds to the IPO.

Adeleke, who is also a former Secretary of the Independent Shareholders Association of Nigeria, said capital market investments should be made with funds that investors could afford to leave untouched for the long term, noting that equities were unsuitable for people struggling to meet immediate financial needs.

He said, “When you buy shares, you are buying a portion of the ownership of the business. Investment takes a lot of time to pass through gestation, to stability, to profitability. And you cannot, with any degree of certainty, predict when the company is going to turn the corner and begin to produce profits.

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“So, investment money is not the money you are likely to need in the next two months, three months, six months, even one year. If you cannot part with your money for a minimum of three to five years, the capital market is not the place to invest.”

Adeleke, however, described the IPO as a strategic investment, citing the refinery’s scale and demand for its products.

Also speaking, the Head of Financial Institutions Ratings at Agusto & Co., Ayokunle Olubunmi, urged Nigerians to consider the risks associated with the investment and avoid committing all their savings to the offer.

He said, “There are plenty of risks to this business. It’s not risk-free. Things can get worse for the business. Valuation is based on expectations of what will happen in the future. Things might not go as planned. And, like we all know, equity is a risky business.”

Olubunmi particularly cautioned prospective investors against selling property or using up all their savings to invest in the offer.

He advised them to invest only a portion of their funds and diversify their portfolios.

The expert also advised those considering taking loans to buy the shares to have a separate and reliable repayment plan rather than depending on returns from the investment.

The Emir of Kano, Muhammadu Sanusi II, had earlier warned prospective investors against using their children’s school fees or selling their homes to invest in the shares.

Sanusi, who gave the warning on Thursday while speaking at the company’s roadshow in Kano, urged prospective investors to invest only money they could afford to set aside for some time, suggesting amounts such as N10,000, N20,000 or N30,000.

Source: punchng.com

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ARE NIGERIANS BUILDING CHINA’S ECONOMY WHILE NEGLECTING THEIR OWN?

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While other nations are busy producing, manufacturing and exporting, Nigeria must ask itself a difficult question: Are we building our own economy, or simply creating a bigger market for other countries?

Nigeria has a huge population, abundant natural resources and a massive consumer market. Yet the country continues to depend heavily on imported finished products—from electronics and clothing to machinery, household goods and other consumer items.

The issue is not simply about Chinese businesses or businesses from any other foreign country operating in Nigeria. Foreign investment can bring capital, technology, jobs and expertise.

The bigger issue is whether **Nigerian businesses are being given the opportunity and support to manufacture competitively at home.

Instead of remaining primarily a consumer of finished products, Nigeria needs to strengthen its manufacturing sector and move further up the value chain.

Nigeria needs to produce, not just consume.

A stronger manufacturing economy could help Nigeria:

* Create more jobs for Nigerians
* Add value to locally available raw materials
* Develop industrial skills and technology
* Reduce excessive dependence on imported finished goods
* Build competitive Nigerian companies
* Increase the country’s ability to export

The goal should not be to drive legitimate foreign businesses out of Nigeria. The goal should be to build an economy where **Nigerian manufacturers can compete, grow and eventually take Nigerian-made products to markets around the world.

The question Nigerians should be asking is simple:

**Why should Nigeria remain one of the world’s biggest markets for finished products when we have the potential to manufacture many of them ourselves?

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🇳🇬 **Nigeria must move from being predominantly a consumer nation to becoming a stronger producer, manufacturer and exporter.

What do you think?

Which products should Nigeria prioritize for local manufacturing instead of relying heavily on imports?

Share your thoughts in the comments.

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ICRC defends toll pricing on highways

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The Infrastructure Concession Regulatory Commission has defended the toll pricing structure under the Highway Development and Management Initiative, saying charges are evaluated against the quality and benefits of the upgraded roads.

In a statement made available to PUNCH Online on Thursday, the Director-General, Dr. Jobson Ewalefoh, cited the 227-kilometre Akwanga–Makurdi road corridor as an example.

He said the route has four toll gates, and motorists pay as they travel along it.

He argued that toll payments should be viewed against the previous costs imposed by the poor condition of the road, including lost man-hours, vehicle damage and accident risks.

Feedback from road users, he said, shows many motorists are willing to pay tolls where they see clear improvements in road quality.

Some drivers have expressed support for similar arrangements on other major corridors if the roads are upgraded to the same standard.

“That, to me, is the beauty of a well-structured PPP,” Ewalefoh said.

He explained that negotiators carefully consider toll pricing to keep charges fair. A portion of the revenue is set aside specifically for road maintenance. Under the concession agreements, the government does not bear additional maintenance costs for the duration of the contract.

The government must repair potholes within 48 hours, and it funds major routine repairs from the dedicated toll revenue.

Source: punchng.com

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