Business

Crude earnings fall by N3.18tn amid output surge

Published

10 months ago

September 15, 2025

Nigeria’s crude oil exports declined by N3.18tn in the first half of 2025 despite an increase in production volumes, the latest foreign trade statistics report from the National Bureau of Statistics has shown.

It was observed that while the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission reported a 12.7 per cent rise in crude oil output during the period, export earnings from crude fell by more than 11 per cent year-on-year.

Between January and June 2025, crude oil exports totalled N24.92tn, down from N28.10tn in the same period of 2024. This represents an 11.3 per cent decline in value, or a loss of N3.18tn.

Further analysis of the foreign trade data from the NBS by The PUNCH showed that in the first quarter of 2025, crude exports stood at N12.96tn, compared to N15.49tn in Q1 2024. The difference of N2.53tn amounts to a 16.3 per cent fall. By the second quarter, the decline was less steep: exports dropped from N12.61tn in Q2 2024 to N11.97tn in Q2 2025, a reduction of N642bn or 5.1 per cent.

The contribution of crude oil to total exports also weakened. In Q1 2024, crude accounted for 80.8 per cent of Nigeria’s exports, but by Q1 2025 this had dropped to 62.9 per cent, a decline of nearly 18 percentage points. The downward trend continued in Q2, with crude making up 52.6 per cent of exports, compared to 71.2 per cent in Q2 2024 — a decline of about 18.6 percentage points.

By contrast, non-crude oil exports surged. In H1 2025, they more than doubled to N18.43tn, compared with N8.79tn in H1 2024 — a growth of 109.6 per cent or an additional N9.64tn. Non-oil exports alone rose from N3.74tn to N6.21tn, an increase of N2.47tn or 66 per cent.

Overall trade also expanded. Total exports in H1 2025 reached N43.35tn, up from N36.89tn in H1 2024, reflecting a 17.5 per cent increase. Imports, on the other hand, rose by a slimmer margin of 6.9 per cent, from N28.72tn in H1 2024 to N30.71tn in H1 2025.

This contributed to an improved trade balance, which grew by 54.6 per cent, from N8.17tn in H1 2024 to N12.64tn in H1 2025. The PUNCH further observed that crude oil’s dominance in Nigeria’s export profile is being eroded, with its share sliding from 76.2 per cent in H1 2024 to 57.5 per cent in H1 2025.

The development highlights a paradox in Africa’s largest oil producer where rising output has not translated into stronger export performance, raising questions about domestic absorption, global oil demand, and pricing conditions. The data suggest that while Nigeria is pumping more crude, weaker global prices, rising domestic utilisation, or both, may be weighing on export receipts.

Earlier in March 2025, The PUNCH reported that Nigeria’s 2025 budget could come under pressure as crude oil prices slipped below the government’s benchmark projection of $75 per barrel. The situation, compounded by a dip in average daily crude production, was also expected to impact local refineries, including the Dangote plant and others.

While global factors such as falling oil prices may have contributed to the decline in export earnings, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has been supplying crude to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery under a naira-for-crude arrangement — a move analysts say could be diverting some volumes away from international markets.

Earlier in June 2025, The PUNCH reported that the Federal Government sold crude oil valued at N219.38bn to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in the first four months of 2025.

The government also earned $1.59m from crude oil exports in April 2025, during the period it suspended sales of domestic crude allocations to the Dangote refinery and local refiners. These details were contained in internal documents from the NNPCL, submitted at the Federation Account Allocation Committee meetings.

266.9m barrels crude

Nigeria pumped a total of 266.9 million barrels of crude oil between January and June 2025, according to figures obtained from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission by The PUNCH. The data show that the country recorded higher output across all six months compared to the same period in 2024, when production stood at 236.7 million barrels.

In January 2025, crude production rose to 47.7 million barrels, higher than the 44.2 million barrels recorded in January 2024. February output also increased to 41 million barrels, up from 38.3 million barrels in the same month of the previous year.

The upward trend extended into March, where production climbed to 43.4 million barrels, a gain of more than 5 million barrels compared to 38.2 million barrels in March 2024. April saw output reach 44.6 million barrels, rising by nearly 6 million barrels from the 38.7 million barrels recorded in April the previous year.

May’s figures showed a further improvement, with Nigeria producing 45 million barrels compared to 39.1 million barrels in May 2024. The highest year-on-year increase came in June, when production hit 45.2 million barrels, up from 38.1 million barrels a year earlier, a difference of about 7.1 million barrels.

Overall, the first half of 2025 saw crude production rise by 30.2 million barrels compared with the same period in 2024, representing a growth rate of 12.7 per cent. When condensates are included, total liquid output for the period reached 303.2 million barrels, compared to 275 million barrels recorded in the first half of 2024.

Industry watchers say the steady increase in crude production reflects improved operating conditions in the oil sector, though they caution that challenges such as pipeline vandalism, theft, and underinvestment continue to pose risks.

However, the NUPRC earlier revealed a 50.2 per cent reduction in crude oil losses during the first seven months of 2025. In a recent statement by the Head of Media and Strategic Communications at NUPRC, Eniola Akinkuotu, it was noted that between January and July 2025, the country lost 2.04 million barrels of crude oil, averaging 9,600 barrels per day, which is the lowest level since 2009 when losses were recorded at 8,500 barrels per day.

The current figures represent a 94.57 per cent drop from the losses experienced in 2021. The statement read, “Between January and July 2025, crude oil losses were contained at 2.04 million barrels, averaging 9,600 barrels per day over the seven-month period. This marks a clear departure from the high-loss years that have long plagued the industry.

“By comparison, the entire 2024 calendar year recorded 4.1 million barrels lost at a daily average of 11,300 barrels. Remarkably, in just the first seven months of 2025, losses were cut by 50.2 per cent, with only 2.04 million barrels lost over the period.

“The figures for the period ending July 2025 also represent a dramatic 94.57 per cent drop in crude oil losses compared to the full year of 2021, when Nigeria lost a staggering 37.6 million barrels at a daily average of 102,900 barrels.”

According to the statement, the progress was made possible by a combination of effective regulatory measures and collaboration with security agencies, oil operators, and local communities.

The NUPRC’s metering audit, aimed at ensuring accurate measurements of production and exports, has played a pivotal role in reducing discrepancies. NUPRC’s success is also attributed to the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act in 2021, which has significantly contributed to the downward trend in oil losses.

Also, the commission has adopted both kinetic and non-kinetic strategies to tackle the issue, continuing to work closely with stakeholders in the oil sector to ensure the country’s resources are better protected.

Earlier in June 2025, the Executive Coordinator of the Independent Petroleum Producers Group, Oyeleke Banmeke, said that crude oil theft in Nigeria has reduced significantly compared to figures recorded about two to three years ago.

Banmeke commended the current administration of President Bola Tinubu for improvements in security along the country’s oil-producing corridors, particularly in the Niger Delta.

Speaking earlier on the likely impact of crude oil prices on government revenue, an Energy Professor at the Lagos State University, Dayo Ayoade, said the drop in crude production prices would affect the budget adversely, though it would bring down fuel prices.

Ayoade also said that the government must do its best to achieve two million barrels per day, or the refineries will have to resort to imports, which may impact the fuel prices.

Similarly, Professor Adeola Adenikinju of the Department of Economics at the University of Ibadan argued that the decline in crude oil prices is like a two-edged sword. He said it would lower the prices of refined products, such as PMS.

“But macroeconomically, it’s going to have implications, especially for government revenue, simply because the two critical assumptions, you know, that would change the budget were the oil price and oil volume. So, if oil prices go down and persist, then that will mean that budget implementation will be very difficult,” he said.

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Business

Remi Tinubu defends her akara/roasted corn business idea, says petty traders given N50, 000 empowerment appreciate it

Published

7 minutes ago

June 30, 2026

Oluwagbenga Olaoye

The First Lady of Nigeria, Senator Oluremi Tinubu, has defended her recent remarks urging low-income citizens to engage in micro-businesses, such as frying akara, roasting corn, or producing kuli-kuli.

The initial comments, delivered to journalists in Abuja on Thursday, June 25, sparked widespread public backlash. Critics argued that promoting low-yield, traditional petty trading is regressive at a time when global economies are transitioning toward technology-driven industries.

Addressing the controversy during an official event in Jigawa State on Monday, June 29, the First Lady dismissed the criticisms, emphasizing that the federal government remains committed to supporting grassroots commerce. She noted that national empowerment initiatives regularly target small-scale vendors, including those selling tomatoes, pepper, vegetables, and roasted plantains.

To support her stance, Tinubu disclosed that the government has distributed ₦100 million in financial grants so far. Under this scheme, approximately 2,000 petty traders have received ₦50,000 each to recapitalize and expand their businesses.

“ I’ve told Her Excellency that we’ve already given, donated about 100 million to her to use to empower 2,000 petty traders. And I know they’ve been talking that I said akara. It’s not only akara, we also have tomato sellers. We have boole, and those also selling pepper, selling vegetables for us in the market.

We will continue to empower them and add to their resources so that their trade can really be sustainable. So that is what we are doing,” she said.

She maintained that the criticism trailing her earlier remarks would not deter the government from its empowerment programmes.

“I know all those people who are affected; they do appreciate it. And we are not intimidated by all those wrong reports. But we are forging ahead and making sure that our people, you know, are well cared for” she said

Mrs Tinubu prayed that Nigerian youths explore other opportunities around them to empower themselves economically.

“Nigeria is a really blessed country. I’ve been travelling, and I pray that our young people will see the resources we have in this nation. We have not even gone to explore yet because we are thinking it’s oil. But there are so many things” she said

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Business

‘It’s not only akara,’ Remi Tinubu defends comments, says FG also supports tomato, pepper sellers

Published

1 hour ago

June 30, 2026

Newsbreak365_Admin

The First Lady, Senator Oluremi Tinubu, has defended her earlier comments on small-scale businesses, saying the Federal Government’s empowerment programmes extend beyond akara sellers to include traders in tomatoes, pepper, vegetables and roasted plantain.

Tinubu spoke on Monday during the inauguration of the newly constructed Abubakar Maje Haruna Hall at the Emir of Hadejia’s Palace in Jigawa State, according to a video aired by TVC News.

Her remarks come days after comments she made about akara, roasted corn and kuli-kuli businesses sparked widespread backlash on social media, with many Nigerians accusing her of trivialising the country’s economic hardship.

Addressing the criticism directly, the First Lady said the Federal Government had donated N100m to the Jigawa State Government to empower 2,000 petty traders in the state.

“Because of the atmosphere, what is going on, I’ve told Her Excellency that we’ve already given, donated about 100 million to her to use to empower 2,000 petty traders.

“And I know they’ve been talking that I said akara. It’s not only akara, we also have tomato sellers. We have boole, and those also selling pepper, selling vegetables for us in the market.

“We will continue to empower them and add to their resources so that their trade can really be sustainable. So that is what we are doing,” she said.

Tinubu said the beneficiaries would each receive N50,000 to recapitalise their businesses.

“We continue to carry the capacity. We have the amount of 2,000 women who are already in small businesses. They will recapitalise their businesses with the N50,000 each. We’ve already given the N100 million,” she added.

She maintained that the criticism trailing her earlier remarks would not deter the government from its empowerment programmes.

“I know all those people who are affected, they do appreciate it. And we are not intimidated by all those wrong reports. But we are forging ahead and making sure that our people, you know, are well cared for,” Mrs Tinubu said.

The First Lady also spoke about Nigeria’s untapped resources, citing an orange orchard she visited in Benue State, and expressed hope that young Nigerians would explore opportunities beyond oil.

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Business

Local refineries import 2m barrels Libyan crude oil amid domestic shortage

Published

2 hours ago

June 30, 2026

Newsbreak365_Admin

Nigeria imported an average of two million barrels of crude oil from Libya, the first of such imports from the North African country ever. Dangote Petroleum Refinery is the major importer of crude into Nigeria.

The import comes amid the high export of crude locally produced in Nigeria to other countries, leaving local refineries with no option but to seek feedstock elsewhere.

Libya Review, a local media outlet in the country, reports that Libya’s crude oil exports reached a new milestone after Nigeria imported Libyan oil for the first time on record, highlighting the growing role of Libyan supplies in regional energy markets amid ongoing disruptions to global trade flows.

According to data published by the Energy Research Unit, Nigeria imported around 64,500 barrels per day of Libyan crude in May 2026, equivalent to approximately two million barrels for the month. “The shipment marks the first recorded Nigerian import of Libyan crude in available historical data dating back to 2013,” the report said.

Recall that there were reports in 2024 that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery was in talks with Libya for the purchase of crude oil. However, the Libyan oil corporation denied negotiating or entering into talks regarding the crude oil supply to any Nigerian refinery.

The statement, written in Arabic in 2024, translates, “The National Oil Corporation denies that it has negotiated or entered into any talks regarding the supply of crude oil to an oil refinery in Nigeria.”

The National Oil Corporation also confirmed then that it was committed to its contracts with its international partners and committed to the legal mechanism for selling Libyan oil raw materials and that it did not work with an immediate sales mechanism.

“In addition, the process of determining raw material prices is carried out through a committee of experts and is approved by the corporation and the Ministry of Oil and Gas,” Libya said in July 2024.

But it appears the agreement has finally been concluded with the supply of 2 million barrels to the Dangote refinery in just one month. By ramping up capacity to 700,000 barrels per day and eyeing 1.4 million barrels per day in 2028, the Dangote refinery is increasingly in need of feedstock from multiple sources.

In 2026, the refinery has already imported cargoes of Angola’s Cabinda and Saxi Batuque crudes, Ghana’s Jubilee crude and, for the first time, Libyan and Guyanese supplies, all of the light sweet or medium sweet variety, according to S&P Global Energy data.

In Nigeria, local refiners have consistently complained of insufficient crude supply due to higher exports. Nigeria exported an estimated 148.9 million barrels of crude oil valued at about N20.22tn in the first five months of 2026, showcasing the scale of the country’s oil export despite persistent concerns over the domestic crude supply obligation.

The crude barrels were exported by both international and indigenous oil companies, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited.

The figures obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria indicate that the total volume of crude oil produced by the country during the five-month review period in 2026 was 216.85 million barrels, out of which about 149 million barrels were exported.

Overall, Nigeria exported about 68.7 per cent of the crude oil it produced during the five months, leaving roughly 67.95 million barrels available for domestic refining, storage, operational use, and inventory adjustments.

The import of crude from Libya is coming as international oil markets continue to adjust to supply disruptions linked to the US-Iran conflict and the resulting challenges affecting energy shipments through the Gulf region. These conditions, it was learnt, have allowed Libyan crude to expand its presence in both African and European markets.

Libya is also strengthening energy ties with neighbouring countries while also competing with Nigeria for major oil investors.

It was gathered that Egypt imported approximately 33,000 barrels per day of Libyan crude in April 2026, following imports of 57,000 barrels per day in February. The purchases marked Egypt’s first imports of Libyan crude since 2019 and form part of efforts to secure alternative supplies following agreements to import more than one million barrels per month from Libya.

Tunisia also increased purchases of Libyan crude during 2026, importing around 19,000 barrels per day in March and 10,000 barrels per day in May, despite only occasionally buying Libyan oil in previous years.

Italy remained Libya’s largest customer, importing 348,000 barrels per day in May, accounting for roughly one-third of total Libyan crude exports. Greece, Spain and Turkey followed among the leading buyers of Libyan oil.

The Dangote refinery recently purchased two cargoes of crude oil from the United Arab Emirates, marking its first-ever procurement of Middle Eastern crude as it expands its feedstock sources amid persistent domestic supply constraints.

According to a report by S&P Global Commodity Insights, the two cargoes will be the first sourced by the refinery from any Middle Eastern supplier, signalling a shift from its traditional reliance on Nigerian, African, and United States crude grades.

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