Business

N20,000 monthly transfers can cut poverty, says W’Bank

Published

57 minutes ago

November 16, 2025

The World Bank has said Nigeria could lift up to 13.9 million people out of poverty if it implements a structured N20,000 monthly cash-transfer system targeted at poor households, warning that the country’s current safety-net programmes are too weak and underfunded to deliver meaningful relief.

The Bretton Woods institution delivered the verdict in a new report titled “The State of Social Safety Nets in Nigeria,” obtained by our correspondent on Friday. It urged an increase from the current disbursement of N5,000.

It said Nigeria’s social safety-net programmes are too poorly funded, weakly targeted, and inefficiently executed to deliver meaningful relief to the more than 100 million citizens living in extreme poverty. This comes after the bank revealed that only 44 per cent of total benefits from government-funded safety-net schemes actually reach poor Nigerians.

In its latest assessment, the bank noted that existing interventions “remain too small, too fragmented and too inefficient to move the needle on poverty,” despite the scale of economic hardship confronting millions of citizens.

“At their present scale and design, social protection programmes are simply not adequate to cushion vulnerable families or reverse the rising poverty trend,” the report stated.

It stressed that the combination of high inflation, shrinking household purchasing power, and limited beneficiary reach has weakened the impact of federal welfare spending.

According to the report, simulations show that expanding transfers to N20,000 per month, backed by stronger targeting and increased funding, “could dramatically reduce both the poverty headcount and the depth of deprivation among Nigeria’s poorest households.”

It added that with the right level of investment and a cleaner delivery system, “Nigeria has the potential to lift 13.9 million people out of poverty, more than double what current programmes can achieve.”

According to the World Bank, simulations using Nigeria Living Standards Survey data show that safety nets could significantly reduce poverty and inequality if spending is increased and benefits reach their intended targets.

The bank examined spending scenarios ranging from N500bn to N2.4tn annually, with benefit levels of N5,000 to N20,000 per household per month. The results were striking. Under a clean, perfectly targeted system with zero leakage, N500bn, roughly Nigeria’s current allocation, could lift 3.3 million people out of poverty and cover nearly 70 per cent of the poor.

With N1.8tn (0.9 per cent of GDP), about 10.6 million Nigerians could be lifted out of poverty, while spending N2.4tn (1.2 per cent of GDP, the LMIC average) could lift 13.9 million people above the poverty line.

The report read, “While the impact of the safety net expenditure in Nigeria is negligible, the low impacts are driven by low and inadequate coverage and inefficient spending. Simulations using the NLSS 2018/19 data show that safety nets can have large impacts on poverty and inequality (measured by the depth of poverty) with larger overall expenditures and with efficient spending going directly to the poor.

“The simulations examine scenarios where the overall expenditures vary from N500bn, a very low scenario comparable to the current allocation, to N2.4tn, an ambitious scenario for Nigeria but one of average expenditures (relative to GDP) in other lower-middle-income countries. The simulations vary in benefit size per household from N5,000 to N20,000 per month. The simulations assume that the budget is spent exclusively on poor people, that is, without any targeting errors, leakage, or administrative and operational costs.

“The coverage is then determined by the data based on the budget and benefit size. Poverty impacts can be very significant even under the relatively low expenditures scenario, when spent efficiently. The simulations show that spending N500bn (about 0.2 per cent of GDP) on the poor, without any inefficiency or leakage, can lift 1.6 per cent (3.3 million people) out of poverty and cover close to 70 per cent of the poor. With higher levels of expenditure on the poor, especially expenditures exceeding N1.8tn (0.9 per cent of GDP), 5 per cent (or 10.6 million people) can be lifted out of poverty. With the lower-middle-income country average expenditures of 1.2 per cent of GDP (N2.4tn) on the poor, Nigeria can lift 13.9 million people out of poverty.”

The bank urged the Federal Government to treat safety-net spending as an investment rather than a temporary palliative. “Scaling up cash transfers, particularly towards the N20,000 benchmark, represents one of the most efficient paths to reducing poverty in Nigeria,” it said, adding that wider coverage, not just higher benefit levels, would ensure more equitable relief for the millions living just below the poverty line.

It noted that while several interventions exist on paper, the impact of Nigeria’s welfare spending “remains negligible,” largely because too few poor households are covered and too much of the current funding leaks to non-poor beneficiaries. The bank urged Nigeria to prioritise wider coverage instead of concentrating large benefits on fewer households.

Its analysis shows that spreading N1tn across all poor households, even with smaller benefits, would lift about six million people out of poverty, compared to 5.8 million if the same amount were spent as N20,000 monthly transfers targeted at only one-third of poor households.

The broader coverage also reduces the depth of poverty more effectively, particularly for the millions of citizens just below the poverty line, who need only minimal support to cross it. The World Bank found that the poorest households, those far below the poverty line, remain untouched even by higher transfer amounts.

Under a perfect targeting system, N1tn spent on the poorest third would reduce poverty severity by 1.5 percentage points, nearly double the impact of randomly distributed transfers, but would have almost zero effect on headcount poverty because the poorest are too deep in deprivation to be lifted out with modest transfers.

Earlier, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, announced that the Federal Government plans to deliver digital cash transfers to 15 million households, estimated at 70 million Nigerians. He said 8.5 million households had already received at least one round of the N25,000 grant, with payments to the remaining 6.5 million expected before the end of the year.

Edun described the intervention as a cornerstone of the government’s strategy to cushion the impact of inflation and subsidy removal, but the World Bank report suggests the programme’s short duration and funding limits may not deliver long-term poverty reduction.

The World Bank concluded that Nigeria’s current safety-net architecture is incapable of driving the government’s poverty-eradication ambition unless urgent reforms are made.

It recommended three immediate steps, “Increase overall spending on safety nets, treating them as investments, not handouts, Expand coverage to reach more of the 100 million extremely poor Nigerians, Improve targeting and raise benefit levels to ensure transfers make a measurable impact.

“Nigeria’s safety nets, at their current funding level and implementation pattern, are too small, too narrow, and too diluted to meaningfully reduce extreme poverty,” the report declared.

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Business

US crude shipments to Nigeria surge 101% – Report

Published

2 hours ago

November 16, 2025

Oluwagbenga Olaoye

Nigeria’s import of crude oil from the United States more than doubled in the first eight months of 2025, rising by 101 per cent, according to new data from the US Energy Information Administration.

The figures show that the country imported 31.69 million barrels between February and August 2025, compared to 15.79 million barrels in the same period of 2024. The increase of 15.9 million barrels reflects a significant shift in sourcing, driven by supply pressures and the need to stabilise domestic fuel output.

There was no record of such an import in January in either year, according to available data. A breakdown of the numbers shows strong month-on-month increases across most of the period under review.

In February, imports stood at 3.11 million barrels, below the 3.61 million barrels recorded in 2024. This represents a decline of 13.8 per cent, or 500,000 barrels. Volumes rose sharply in March, reaching 5.25 million barrels, up from 3.42 million barrels in the corresponding month last year.

The gain amounted to 1.83 million barrels, representing a 53.5 per cent increase.

In April, imports totalled 2.04 million barrels, up from 1.54 million barrels in April 2024. The difference of 497,000 barrels marked a 32.3 per cent rise. May recorded 3.79 million barrels, against 2.08 million barrels a year earlier. This represented a growth of 1.71 million barrels, or 82.4 per cent.

A major spike occurred in June, when imports climbed to 9.16 million barrels, far above the 1.04 million barrels recorded in June 2024. The increase of 8.12 million barrels translated to a 782.3 per cent surge, the highest jump in the period.

In July, imports rose slightly to 4.17 million barrels, compared to 4.10 million barrels last year. The difference of 73,000 barrels reflected a 1.8 per cent increase. The import figure for August 2025, which stood at 4.17 million barrels, lacked a direct comparison because the EIA did not publish data for August 2024.

The rising inflow of US crude highlights Nigeria’s continued reliance on foreign barrels amid inconsistent domestic crude supply and the ongoing transition in local refining. With crude production still below target levels and refinery operations picking up, US light sweet grades have remained a key option for meeting supply needs.

The volatility and eventual surge indicate that the Dangote Refinery’s crude intake is entering a steady ramp-up, with US light sweet crude favoured for its compatibility with complex refining processes. However, the rising reliance on imported US barrels highlights a longstanding paradox for Nigeria.

Despite being Africa’s biggest oil producer and an OPEC member, it has historically exported crude while importing refined products because its state refineries are moribund.

The Dangote refinery was expected to address this by using domestic crude oil to reduce reliance on imports. However, the latest data show it is still relying on foreign supply to optimise operations.

The year-on-year surge of over 100 per cent, alongside the rapid month-on-month escalation in 2025, signals a structural shift in Nigeria’s crude import profile. The Federal Government earlier disclosed that a total of 67,657,559 barrels of crude oil were supplied to local refiners for processing between January and August 2025.

This figure, confirmed by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, highlights the ongoing challenges in bridging the crude allocation gap faced by indigenous refineries, despite Nigeria’s rising production levels.

The commission noted that crude allocation was made in line with the Petroleum Industry Act 2021 and the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation policy.

According to the commission, through its Head of Media and Strategic Communications, Eniola Akinkuotu, the barrels were delivered to both modular and state-owned refining facilities, including Waltersmith, Aradel Energy, and refineries under the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited.

“A total of 67,657,559 barrels were delivered to local refiners between January and August this year. All refiners got that amount within the eight-month period,” Akinkuotu noted in a statement.

However, the volume supplied fell short of refiners’ demand by a wide margin. Local processors had requested 123,480,500 barrels for the first half of 2025, meaning they received 55,822,941 barrels—or about 45 per cent—less than required to meet their refining targets.

Earlier this year, the NUPRC projected that refineries such as Port Harcourt, Warri, Dangote, and others would require 770,500 barrels per day, translating to 23.8 million barrels per month, or 123.4 million barrels for the first half of 2025.

Yet, actual deliveries have not matched these forecasts. Instead, Nigeria’s crude and condensate production climbed to 1.63 million barrels per day in August, with much of it still destined for export.

For months, refinery owners have complained about difficulties in accessing crude oil locally. They allege that producers prefer selling to international buyers who pay in dollars, leaving domestic refiners struggling under the pressure of exchange rates.

It was earlier reported that the $20bn Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lagos relies heavily on US imports to feed its processing units. The refinery imported an average of 10 million barrels in July, stating that it was increasingly relying on the US for its feedstock, despite the naira-for-crude deal with the Federal Government.

Data from commodities analytics firm Kpler showed that in July, US barrels accounted for approximately 60 per cent of Dangote’s 590,000 barrels per day of crude intake, with Nigerian grades making up the remaining 40 per cent.

In July, the Dangote refinery’s crude imports surged to a record 590 kbd—driven largely by US barrels overtaking Nigerian supply for the first time—amid ongoing domestic sourcing challenges, Kpler reports.

As crude imports into the Dangote refinery surged to 590,000 bpd in July, the highest monthly volume on record, Kpler noted that US crude made up a substantial 370,000bpd (60 per cent) of the total, while Nigerian grades accounted for just 220,000 bpd (40 per cent), primarily comprising Amenam, Bonny Light, and Escravos.

“While WTI has held a significant share in Dangote’s import slate since March, this is the first time US crude has overtaken Nigerian supply—a shift driven by several factors,” Kpler reported.

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Business

Oil, gas operators urged to adopt ADR

Published

1 day ago

November 15, 2025

Newsbreak365_Admin

Stakeholders in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector have been urged to adopt Alternative Dispute Resolution, particularly mediation, as a faster, cheaper, and more business-friendly approach to resolving industry-related conflicts.

This call was made at the Roundtable Consultative and Sensitisation Forum organised by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission on Wednesday in Lagos. The event, themed “Strengthening Stakeholders’ Knowledge of the ADRC’s Mandate and Promoting Efficient, Collaborative and Sustainable Dispute Resolution in Nigeria’s Upstream Petroleum Industry,” focused on deepening understanding of the Commission’s Alternative Dispute Resolution Centre.

Speaking at the event, NUPRC Chief Executive, Gbenga Komolafe, said the Commission established the ADRC to institutionalise fairness, dialogue, and inclusivity in addressing disputes within the oil and gas sector.

Komolafe, represented by the Commission’s Secretary and Legal Adviser, Mrs Olayemi Adeboyejo, said the initiative demonstrated a shared industry resolve to address disputes constructively, adding that it aimed to foster transparency, equity, and cooperation.

“This gathering is not just another industry event; it is a reaffirmation of our collective resolve to institutionalise dialogue, equity, and inclusivity in the resolution of industry-related disputes,” Komolafe said.

He noted that the ADRC was created as a specialised, neutral, and sector-specific platform for resolving disputes in Nigeria’s upstream oil and gas industry.

“By offering mediation, the Centre ensures timely, impartial, and cost-effective dispute resolution consistent with international best practices,” he stated.

Komolafe urged operators, host communities, and legal practitioners to embrace the ADRC as “a strategic ally in corporate governance and risk mitigation” rather than a regulatory mechanism.

“Our objective is to make ADR not the last resort but the first choice for dispute resolution in Nigeria’s upstream petroleum industry,” he added.

According to him, the Commission has achieved key milestones since the Centre’s creation, including inaugurating its Board of Neutrals in Lagos and Yenagoa in 2024, and hosting a capacity-building programme earlier in 2025 to align procedures with global standards.

He said the Board comprised eminent professionals such as retired judges, lawyers, and technical experts versed in ADR processes and committed to neutrality and confidentiality.

Earlier in her welcome address, Adeboyejo urged oil and gas stakeholders to embrace mediation as a commercially viable alternative to prolonged litigation.

“In Nigeria, when people say, ‘Let the court decide,’ sometimes what they really mean is, ‘See you in ten years,” she quipped.

“By that time, oil prices may have changed, the parties may have changed, and even the lawyers handling the matter may have changed chambers twice.”

She noted that under the Petroleum Industry Act 2021, the ADRC was established as a core pillar of the new regulatory framework to promote fairness, confidentiality, and efficiency in dispute management.

“Data from the Centre for Effective Dispute Resolution shows that 80 to 90 per cent of disputes referred to mediation are successfully resolved, often within days or weeks, not years,” she said.

She stressed that the ADRC guarantees neutrality through an independent body of neutrals, joint selection and payment of mediators by both parties, and strict confidentiality.

“No journalist will get a scoop from your mediation room,” she assured. “What happens in mediation stays in mediation.”

Adeboyejo added that the Centre’s mediators possess technical knowledge of the oil and gas industry, giving them a unique advantage in resolving disputes quickly and efficiently.

“Our neutrals can distinguish between a wellhead and a headache — and that makes all the difference,” she said.

Also speaking, Vice Chairman of the Petroleum Technology Association of Nigeria and Managing Director of Global Process and Pipeline Services, Mr Obi Uzu, said the ADRC was a step in the right direction but called for a clear legal framework to support it.

“This is a very important platform for resolving complex contractual issues. Some of our members have completed projects for two to three years without payment,” he said.

“We want to see this platform work, but we also want to be sure it will be trusted by both clients and service providers.”

He noted that for mediation to gain traction, future contracts in the industry must expressly recognise ADR mechanisms.

On his part, Chief Executive Officer and Coordinating Mediator of the Dispute Solutions Hub, Mr Adeyemi Akinsanya, described mediation as “the future of dispute resolution in the oil and gas sector,” noting that prolonged court cases destroy value and relationships.

“Most courts are congested, and cases can take twenty to thirty years to resolve,” he said. “Mediation offers a quick, efficient, and practical way of finding a win-win solution that satisfies both sides and preserves business relationships.”

Similarly, Senior Advocate of Nigeria and energy law expert, Mr Tunde Fagbohunlu, emphasised that mediation should be seen as a process of facilitation, not adjudication.

“Mediation is not about who is right or wrong; it’s about getting the parties to agree,” he said. “The regulator’s role is not punitive but facilitative.”

Fagbohunlu called for a standing inter-stakeholder mechanism to strengthen confidence in ADR and ensure continuous engagement between regulators, operators, and mediators.

Legal practitioner Ms Oyoje Bello of Green Energy described confidentiality and neutrality as “the cornerstones of effective mediation.”

“When you enter that mediation room, you’re entering a safe space. What happens there stays there. The focus is on resolution, not regulation,” she said.

Also, dispute resolution expert, Mr Fola Alade, described mediation as “justice delivered differently,” saying it saves time, protects value, and promotes collaboration.

“Litigation delays projects and increases financial and reputational costs. Every day, a project is tied up in dispute, millions are lost,” he said.

Alade advised that disputes should first go through negotiation and mediation before resorting to arbitration or litigation.

“Mediation and litigation are not rivals; they can coexist. The key is using the right tool at the right time,” he said.

A member of the NUPRC Body of Neutrals, Dr Adenike Esan, also urged industry players to make mediation their first choice.

“Businesses are not set up to resolve disputes; they are set up to achieve objectives,” she said. “When disputes arise, we must resolve them efficiently and quickly.”

Esan noted that mediators at the ADRC possess the technical expertise to understand complex petroleum issues and bridge gaps that often delay arbitration or court processes.

“Mediation may not always end in a settlement,” she added, “but even when it doesn’t, it helps parties understand each other’s positions better and sometimes paves the way for future cooperation.”

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Business

Tinubu shifts 15% fuel import duty to Q1 2026

Published

2 days ago

November 14, 2025

Newsbreak365_Admin

The Federal Government has approved the postponement of the implementation of the 15 per cent import duty on petrol and diesel until the first quarter of 2026, contrary to earlier notions that the suspension was indefinite.

The deferment, formally approved by President Bola Tinubu, was in response to a detailed request submitted by the Executive Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service, Dr Zacch Adedeji, following extensive strategic consultations with key stakeholders to assess market readiness and ensure a smooth and orderly rollout of the 15 per cent import duty.

Adedeji made the request in a letter dated November 7, 2025, titled “Deferment of the Commencement of the Implementation of the Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) and Diesel Import Duty.”

The letter obtained exclusively by our correspondent on Thursday stressed the need to ensure that local refining infrastructure is fully prepared, technical and operational frameworks are properly aligned, and fuel supply disruptions are minimised before the levy takes effect.

The duty, originally approved on October 21, 2025, was aimed at boosting domestic refining capacity, stabilising downstream fuel prices, and promoting fair competition between imported and locally produced fuels.

Earlier on Thursday, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority announced the suspension of the planned 15 per cent ad-valorem import duty on petrol and diesel, reversing an earlier policy move aimed at encouraging local refining and reducing dependence on fuel imports.

The policy suspension was confirmed to our correspondent by the Director, Public Affairs Department at the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, George Ene-Ita, on Thursday, via a telephone conversation.

He explained that the planned tariff had been suspended, saying, “Well, you read it, that is what it means. It is no longer in view and not implementable at this time.”

He stated this while clarifying a press statement earlier issued by the agency. When asked if the decision had the approval of President Bola Tinubu, the official confirmed, “Yes, it is (with his approval).”

The NMDPRA is one of the major federal agencies assigned to enforce the tariff, ensuring compliance with the import duty structure. But a new letter confirming the deferment, sighted by The PUNCH, read that Tinubu, rather, approved the postponement of the implementation “for further review in the first quarter of 2026.”

The letter read, “The purpose of this memorandum is to apprise Your Excellency of the need for a deferment in the commencement schedule of the implementation of the previously approved fifteen per cent (15 per cent) import on Premium Motor Spirit and Diesel, sequel to additional strategic consultations on implementation readiness.

“Your Excellency may wish to recall that on 21st October 2025, via presidential PRES8197/HAGF/100/71/FIRS/40/88-2/NMDPRA/2, you graciously approved the introduction of fifteen per cent (15 per cent) ad-valorem import duty on Premium Motor Spirit (PMS and Diesel). The measure was conceived as a corrective policy tool to strengthen local refining capacity, stabilise downstream market prices, and promote competitive parity between imported and domestically produced fuels in line with the Renewed Hope Agenda for energy and fiscal sustainability.

“Pursuant to the above approval, and in line with Your Excellency’s directive that all fiscal and market interventions must be reflective of the administration’s drive for efficiency and balance, a series of consultative meetings was held with critical stakeholders to review implementation timelines and operational readiness.

“Sequel to these engagements, and following a thorough assessment of market conditions and the agreed strategic implementation roadmap, it was collectively determined that it is necessary to allow for a smoother and more efficient rollout. This adjustment will provide adequate time for stakeholders to complete alignment on technical templates, public communication frameworks, and import scheduling, thereby minimising disruption to the supply chain and ensuring that the reform achieves its intended stabilising Impact.”

Adedeji explained that the deferment would also create a window for government agencies to monitor local refining performance in the first quarter of 2026 and align the tariff’s rollout with verified production data and consumer price trends.

According to the letter, the adjustment aims to ensure that when the levy eventually takes effect, it will be both economically sustainable and socially responsible, in line with President Tinubu’s directive that all fiscal measures must safeguard citizens’ welfare while maintaining market discipline.

In his recommendation, the FIRS boss urged the President to approve the deferment of the commencement of the 15 per cent import levy on Premium Motor Spirit and diesel until January 2026, pending further confirmation.

“Pursuant to the foregoing, Your Excellency is graciously invited to approve the deferment of the commencement of the 15 per cent import levy on Premium Motor Spirit and Diesel until January 2026, subject to Your Excellency’s confirmation. Respectfully submitted for Your Excellency’s consideration and further directives,” the letter requested.

President Tinubu, in his minute on the document, approved the request and directed that the implementation be deferred “for further review in the first quarter of 2026.”

Recall that last month, Tinubu’s approval of a 15 per cent import policy on PMS and diesel has stirred widespread concern across the oil and gas sector, with operators warning it could raise petrol prices, worsen inflation, and increase import costs, even as the government insists the policy aims to boost local refining and generate revenue.

The President’s approval was conveyed in a letter signed by his Private Secretary, Damilotun Aderemi, following a proposal submitted by the Executive Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service, Zacch Adedeji.

The proposal sought the application of a 15 per cent duty on the cost, insurance, and freight value of imported petrol and diesel to align import costs with domestic market realities.

Adedeji, in his memo to the President, explained that the measure formed part of ongoing fiscal and energy reforms designed to strengthen the naira-based oil economy, ensure price stability, and accelerate the nation’s transition toward local refining capacity in line with the administration’s Renewed Hope Agenda for energy security and economic sustainability.

The duty, introduced as part of the Federal Government’s new tariff framework for petroleum products, was meant to support emerging local refineries such as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and modular plants.

However, the directive was met with mixed reactions, as stakeholders expressed concerns that the new tax could worsen inflation and push up pump prices at a time when Nigeria’s domestic refineries are yet to attain full operational capacity.

The suspension reflects the administration’s bid to strike a delicate balance between protecting consumers and promoting local production in Nigeria’s transitioning downstream oil market.

Marketers react

Reacting, oil marketers and industry experts have commended President Bola Tinubu for suspending the proposed 15 per cent import duty on petroleum products, describing the move as a timely intervention that averts a potential spike in fuel prices and inflation across the country.

Reacting to the development, the President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria, Billy Gillis-Harry, said the suspension was a clear indication that the Federal Government was responsive to feedback and conscious of the economic realities facing Nigerians.

“I am sure you recall that you interviewed me and I told you that PETROAN could not give a categorical statement on the policy until a test run was done to determine its impact,” he said. “Now that the government has seen that the policy may negatively affect the Nigerian people, it has wisely suspended it. That is the essence of governance, testing, analysing, and acting in the best interest of citizens.”

Gillis-Harry stressed that while import duty was not inherently bad, imposing a 15 per cent tariff at this stage of Nigeria’s economic recovery would have been excessive. He added that the deferment reflected the administration’s sensitivity to market dynamics and its ongoing efforts to strengthen local refining capacity.

“Import duty is not a bad thing, but 15 per cent is a lot. We believe that, at the appropriate time, government policy to encourage local refining will make a whole lot of difference,” he noted. “We congratulate the President for realising in good time that a deferment of the 30-day test run was necessary. We have a listening President, an analytical leader who works tirelessly on the economy. At the right time, there will be a national conversation on how to support local refiners.”

Similarly, the National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, applauded the move, saying the decision would shield consumers from inflationary pressure and preserve market balance. “Yes, we are happy about it,” Ukadike told The PUNCH.

“IPMAN commends Mr President for the suspension of the tax because it would have indirectly fuelled inflation and distorted market forces. We thank him for this people-centred decision.”

In the same vein, an oil and gas expert and Chief Executive Officer of Petroleumprice.ng, Olatide Jeremiah, described the suspension as “a commendable and rational policy adjustment.”

“The 15 per cent tariff was outrageous and ill-timed. If implemented, it would have discouraged fuel imports at a time when Nigeria still lacks sufficient refining capacity to meet domestic demand,” he said.

“Energy security requires a balanced mix of refining and importation. Even top economies like the USA, China, and Russia still import fuel but at minimal tariffs. Imposing 15 per cent here would have created unfair competition and driven up pump prices.”

Jeremiah added that the decision gives the Dangote Refinery and other upcoming local plants room to stabilise production before new fiscal measures are introduced.

A major oil marketer, who spoke on condition of anonymity, attributed the reversal to growing pushback within the industry and concerns about the potential political and economic fallout.

“Personally, I believe there was significant pushback from multiple quarters, even though some supported the duty,” the marketer explained.

“As highlighted by international contributors at the recent MEMAN webinar, value-added taxes on fuel globally hover around 2 per cent. Government’s initial proposal likely targeted higher revenue, but it came across as an attempt to protect local refiners, perhaps even a particular refinery.”

He continued, “In my view, the U-turn stemmed from three main factors: inadequate consultation within and outside government, the political implications of higher pump prices, and possible electoral considerations. The implication now is that fuel importation will continue until local refineries can meet domestic needs. This ensures adequate supply and prevents a monopoly in distribution.”

With the suspension now in effect, marketers expect a smoother transition period as local refineries ramp up production, when Nigeria is projected to achieve significant self-sufficiency in fuel supply.

Meanwhile, the NMDPRA has confirmed a robust domestic supply of petrol, diesel, and cooking gas, sourced from both local refineries and importation, to ensure timely replenishment of stocks at depots and retail stations nationwide.

The statement titled “NMDPRA ADVISES AGAINST PANIC BUYING OF ANY PETROLEUM PRODUCT” read, “The NMDPRA wishes to assure the general public that there is an adequate supply of petroleum products in the country, within the acceptable national sufficiency threshold, during this peak demand period,” the agency said.

It also warned against hoarding, panic buying, or arbitrary price increases, stressing that the downstream regulator would continue to monitor supply and distribution activities closely to prevent disruption in the market.

“The implementation of the 15 per cent ad-valorem import duty on imported Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) and Automotive Gas Oil (diesel) is no longer in view,” the statement added.

The Authority said it would continue to take proactive regulatory measures to guarantee energy security and ensure smooth supply and distribution of products across the country.

While appreciating the cooperation of stakeholders in the midstream and downstream value chain, the NMDPRA reiterated its commitment to ensuring a stable and transparent market that supports consumers and operators alike.

“The Authority will continue to closely monitor the supply situation and take appropriate regulatory measures to prevent disruption of supply and distribution of petroleum products across the country, especially during this peak demand period,” the statement concluded.

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