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N20,000 monthly transfers can cut poverty, says W’Bank

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The World Bank has said Nigeria could lift up to 13.9 million people out of poverty if it implements a structured N20,000 monthly cash-transfer system targeted at poor households, warning that the country’s current safety-net programmes are too weak and underfunded to deliver meaningful relief.

The Bretton Woods institution delivered the verdict in a new report titled “The State of Social Safety Nets in Nigeria,” obtained by our correspondent on Friday. It urged an increase from the current disbursement of N5,000.

It said Nigeria’s social safety-net programmes are too poorly funded, weakly targeted, and inefficiently executed to deliver meaningful relief to the more than 100 million citizens living in extreme poverty. This comes after the bank revealed that only 44 per cent of total benefits from government-funded safety-net schemes actually reach poor Nigerians.

In its latest assessment, the bank noted that existing interventions “remain too small, too fragmented and too inefficient to move the needle on poverty,” despite the scale of economic hardship confronting millions of citizens.

“At their present scale and design, social protection programmes are simply not adequate to cushion vulnerable families or reverse the rising poverty trend,” the report stated.

It stressed that the combination of high inflation, shrinking household purchasing power, and limited beneficiary reach has weakened the impact of federal welfare spending.

According to the report, simulations show that expanding transfers to N20,000 per month, backed by stronger targeting and increased funding, “could dramatically reduce both the poverty headcount and the depth of deprivation among Nigeria’s poorest households.”

It added that with the right level of investment and a cleaner delivery system, “Nigeria has the potential to lift 13.9 million people out of poverty, more than double what current programmes can achieve.”

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According to the World Bank, simulations using Nigeria Living Standards Survey data show that safety nets could significantly reduce poverty and inequality if spending is increased and benefits reach their intended targets.

The bank examined spending scenarios ranging from N500bn to N2.4tn annually, with benefit levels of N5,000 to N20,000 per household per month. The results were striking. Under a clean, perfectly targeted system with zero leakage, N500bn, roughly Nigeria’s current allocation, could lift 3.3 million people out of poverty and cover nearly 70 per cent of the poor.

With N1.8tn (0.9 per cent of GDP), about 10.6 million Nigerians could be lifted out of poverty, while spending N2.4tn (1.2 per cent of GDP, the LMIC average) could lift 13.9 million people above the poverty line.

The report read, “While the impact of the safety net expenditure in Nigeria is negligible, the low impacts are driven by low and inadequate coverage and inefficient spending. Simulations using the NLSS 2018/19 data show that safety nets can have large impacts on poverty and inequality (measured by the depth of poverty) with larger overall expenditures and with efficient spending going directly to the poor.

“The simulations examine scenarios where the overall expenditures vary from N500bn, a very low scenario comparable to the current allocation, to N2.4tn, an ambitious scenario for Nigeria but one of average expenditures (relative to GDP) in other lower-middle-income countries. The simulations vary in benefit size per household from N5,000 to N20,000 per month. The simulations assume that the budget is spent exclusively on poor people, that is, without any targeting errors, leakage, or administrative and operational costs.

“The coverage is then determined by the data based on the budget and benefit size. Poverty impacts can be very significant even under the relatively low expenditures scenario, when spent efficiently. The simulations show that spending N500bn (about 0.2 per cent of GDP) on the poor, without any inefficiency or leakage, can lift 1.6 per cent (3.3 million people) out of poverty and cover close to 70 per cent of the poor. With higher levels of expenditure on the poor, especially expenditures exceeding N1.8tn (0.9 per cent of GDP), 5 per cent (or 10.6 million people) can be lifted out of poverty. With the lower-middle-income country average expenditures of 1.2 per cent of GDP (N2.4tn) on the poor, Nigeria can lift 13.9 million people out of poverty.”

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The bank urged the Federal Government to treat safety-net spending as an investment rather than a temporary palliative. “Scaling up cash transfers, particularly towards the N20,000 benchmark, represents one of the most efficient paths to reducing poverty in Nigeria,” it said, adding that wider coverage, not just higher benefit levels, would ensure more equitable relief for the millions living just below the poverty line.

It noted that while several interventions exist on paper, the impact of Nigeria’s welfare spending “remains negligible,” largely because too few poor households are covered and too much of the current funding leaks to non-poor beneficiaries. The bank urged Nigeria to prioritise wider coverage instead of concentrating large benefits on fewer households.

Its analysis shows that spreading N1tn across all poor households, even with smaller benefits, would lift about six million people out of poverty, compared to 5.8 million if the same amount were spent as N20,000 monthly transfers targeted at only one-third of poor households.

The broader coverage also reduces the depth of poverty more effectively, particularly for the millions of citizens just below the poverty line, who need only minimal support to cross it. The World Bank found that the poorest households, those far below the poverty line, remain untouched even by higher transfer amounts.

Under a perfect targeting system, N1tn spent on the poorest third would reduce poverty severity by 1.5 percentage points, nearly double the impact of randomly distributed transfers, but would have almost zero effect on headcount poverty because the poorest are too deep in deprivation to be lifted out with modest transfers.

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Earlier, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, announced that the Federal Government plans to deliver digital cash transfers to 15 million households, estimated at 70 million Nigerians. He said 8.5 million households had already received at least one round of the N25,000 grant, with payments to the remaining 6.5 million expected before the end of the year.

Edun described the intervention as a cornerstone of the government’s strategy to cushion the impact of inflation and subsidy removal, but the World Bank report suggests the programme’s short duration and funding limits may not deliver long-term poverty reduction.

The World Bank concluded that Nigeria’s current safety-net architecture is incapable of driving the government’s poverty-eradication ambition unless urgent reforms are made.

It recommended three immediate steps, “Increase overall spending on safety nets, treating them as investments, not handouts, Expand coverage to reach more of the 100 million extremely poor Nigerians, Improve targeting and raise benefit levels to ensure transfers make a measurable impact.

“Nigeria’s safety nets, at their current funding level and implementation pattern, are too small, too narrow, and too diluted to meaningfully reduce extreme poverty,” the report declared.

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NNPC serviced $3bn loan with N991bn crude – Report

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22 hours ago

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December 6, 2025

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has serviced part of its $3bn forward-sale loan from the African Export-Import Bank with crude oil worth N991bn in 2024, according to its 2024 financial statement report. The repayment was tied to Project Gazelle, a forward crude oil supply agreement signed in 2023.

On August 17, 2023, The PUNCH reported that the NNPC announced it had secured a $3.3bn emergency loan to repay crude oil obligations from Afreximbank. It explained that the loan would be used by the oil company to support the Federal Government in stabilising Nigeria’s exchange rate.

“The NNPC Ltd. and AFREXIM bank have jointly signed a commitment letter and Termsheet for an emergency $3bn crude oil repayment loan,” NNPC said in a statement.

“The signing, which took place today at the bank’s headquarters in Cairo, Egypt, will provide some immediate disbursement that will enable the NNPC Ltd. to support the Federal Government in its ongoing fiscal and monetary policy reforms aimed at stabilising the exchange rate market,” it added.

Under the deal, NNPC committed to deliver 90,000 barrels of crude oil per day from Production Sharing Contract assets to back a funding facility. According to the 2023 financial statement, a drawdown of $2.25bn had already been achieved by 31st December 2023, with principal repayment scheduled to begin in June 2024.

The funding carried an interest rate of 3-month LIBOR plus 6.5 per cent, with a 6 per cent margin and 0.5 per cent liquidity premium.

According to the 2024 financial statement, the drawdown on the facility had reached N4.9tn out of a total available N5.1tn, while N991bn worth of crude oil had been lifted in repayment, leaving an outstanding balance of N3.8tn at the end of 2024.

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The report read, “In December 2023, NNPC Limited entered into a forward sale agreement with Project Gazelle Funding Limited to supply 90,000 bbl. of crude oil per day from Production Sharing Contract Assets for the settlement of a 5-year N2.7tn funding.

“The funding was utilised by the company to finance an advance payment of future taxes and royalty obligations due to the federation on PSC assets managed by the Company on behalf of the Federation.

“As at 31st December 2024, a drawdown of N4.9tn has been achieved from the initial facility of N5.1tn. The interest rate for the facility is 3-month SOFA plus 6.5 per cent while the margin and Liquidity Premium of 0.5 per cent respectively. A total value of Crude Oil worth N991bn has been lifted with a balance of N3.8tn as at 31st December 2024.”

The repayment was made between June and December 2024. However, NNPC did not disclose the identity of the offtakers or exact delivery volumes fulfilled in 2024.

The Project Gazelle arrangement has become one of NNPC’s most significant forward-sale financing vehicles, following a trend of oil-backed loans designed to shore up government revenues, refinance legacy debts, and meet budgetary obligations amid limited fiscal buffers.

The PUNCH earlier reported that the NNPC Ltd is burdened with crude-backed loan obligations estimated at N8.07tn.

The liabilities stretch across multiple forward-sale and project-financing arrangements that are expected to be serviced through substantial crude oil and gas deliveries. The commitments have become a major pillar of NNPCL’s funding structure following years of fiscal pressure, volatile crude production, and declining upstream investment.

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Several of the facilities were used to refinance older debts, fund refinery rehabilitation, support cash flow, and meet government revenue obligations.

When assessed together, the company’s major crude-for-loan facilities—Eagle Export Funding (21,000 bpd), Project Yield (67,000 bpd), Project Leopard (35,000 bpd), and Project Gazelle (90,000 bpd)—represent a combined commitment of 213,000 barrels per day, in addition to separate gas-delivery obligations under the NLNG arrangement.

The volume equates to a sizeable share of Nigeria’s daily crude output, underscoring the long-term implications of these arrangements for government revenue, export allocation, and operational flexibility.

The PUNCH also reported that Nigeria’s gross profit from crude oil and gas sales plunged by N824.66bn in 2024 despite a rebound in oil production, according to figures from the Budget Implementation Report for the fourth quarter of 2024 released by the Budget Office of the Federation.

Data from the report revealed that gross profit from crude and gas sales fell to N1.08tn during the year, from N1.90tn in 2023, representing a 43.32 per cent decline.

The Chief Executive Officer of AHA Strategies and oil and gas expert, Mr Ademola Adigun, earlier linked Nigeria’s declining oil earnings to opaque crude-for-cash agreements and undisclosed loan repayments that have tied up part of the country’s crude output.

He said some of the government’s oil barrels were already committed to debt settlements and forward-sale contracts, reducing the actual volume that brought fresh revenue into the Federation Account.

Adigun said, “Some of our crude is already tied up in loan agreements. The problem is that Nigeria doesn’t know the full details of these transactions because there’s little transparency around them.”

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He explained that several crude-backed projects, such as Project Gazelle, were carried out without proper public disclosure or parliamentary scrutiny.

He added that the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative should strengthen its audits to determine how much of the country’s crude is being used for debt repayment or swap transactions.

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Yuletide: Dangote assures Nigerians of stable fuel supply

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22 hours ago

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December 6, 2025

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Chairman of Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, on Friday said Nigerians will no longer experience fuel queues during the Christmas and New Year seasons.

Briefing State House correspondents after meeting with President Bola Tinubu at the Aso Rock Villa, Abuja, Dangote said his refinery has formally notified the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority of its readiness to deliver 50 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit daily, far above national consumption.

He said, “Historically, Nigeria has battled fuel queues since 1972. For the first time, we are eliminating those queues, not through imports but by producing locally.

“Even when we were servicing the refinery, there were no queues. I can assure you that queues are now history.”

Dangote stated that the refinery will soon produce surplus volumes, adding that by February, it will supply 15–20 million litres more than Nigeria needs.

This, he argued, will allow exports to neighbouring countries, reducing the incidence of fuel scarcity across West Africa.

The industrialist also disclosed that domestic manufacturers, especially in the plastics industry, will now enjoy reliable access to locally produced feedstock, ending years of reliance on imports estimated at $400m annually.

Dangote also announced an expansion programme that will raise refinery capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2028, surpassing India’s Reliance refinery, the world’s largest, at 1.25 million barrels per day.

“We have already signed the necessary agreements.

“Construction piling begins before the end of January, and we will deliver on schedule,” he announced.

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He revealed plans to scale up the company’s urea production to 12 million tonnes annually, positioning Nigeria to overtake Russia and Qatar as the world’s leading producer.

“Our goal is to use our fertilizer company to supply the entire African continent,” Dangote said.

Dangote attributed the recent drop in petrol and diesel prices to increased competition and reduced smuggling.

“Prices are going down because we must compete with imports.

“Luckily, smuggling has dropped significantly, though not completely,” he explained.

He noted that the refinery business is a long-term national investment, saying, “We’re not here to recover $20 billion overnight.

“The legacy I want to leave is that whatever Nigerians need, fuel, fertiliser, power, we will be part of delivering it.”

Dangote further highlighted logistics constraints affecting Nigeria’s solid minerals sector, particularly the congestion of major ports.

“Apapa is full. Tin Can is full. Lekki is mainly for containers.

“You cannot export coal or copper if you have nowhere to ship from,” he noted.

To curb this, he explained that the Group is developing what would become West Africa’s largest deep-sea port at Olokola, expected to be completed in two to two-and-a-half years.

The Kano-born businessman expressed support for the Tinubu administration’s naira-for-crude initiative, describing it as a patriotic move to strengthen the economy, although he acknowledged pushback from international oil companies.

According to him, “It’s a teething problem, but it will be resolved, either through legislation or administrative action.”

On concerns about global competition, Dangote maintained that the refinery will thrive.

He said, “What we want is to make Nigeria the refining hub of Africa. All African countries import fuel. We want what we consume to be produced here.”

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He also endorsed the government’s Nigeria-first industrial policy and urged wealthy Nigerians to channel resources into productive investment rather than luxury spending.

“If you have money for a private jet, invest in industries and create jobs,” he stated, adding that domestic investors must drive industrialisation to attract foreign capital.

Dangote acknowledged past hurdles, policy instability, smuggling, and factory closures, but expressed optimism that the country is now on a stable path toward sustainable industrial growth.

“Domestic investors must lead the way. Once they do, foreign investors will follow.

“Nobody advertises a good restaurant; when the food is good, word spreads,” he explained.

He described his meeting with President Tinubu as a routine consultation on the economy and business environment, noting that it was “a very fruitful meeting.”

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OPay secures double honours at Tech Innovation Awards

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2 days ago

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December 5, 2025

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Nigeria’s premier financial technology company, OPay, has been named Fintech Company of the Year and Best Fintech in Cybersecurity at the ninth Tech Innovation Awards.

In a statement on Thursday, OPay said the award was in recognition of its innovation and security leadership.

The awards ceremony, held on 29 November 2025, in Lagos, convened top organisations and industry leaders who shape the country’s digital landscape.

Speaking after receiving the honours, Chief Compliance Officer at OPay, Chukwudinma Okafor, said, “These awards are a testament to our relentless pursuit of excellence in fintech and our unwavering commitment to user security. Every innovation we introduce, from secure payments to advanced compliance measures, is designed to give millions of Nigerians the confidence to transact safely. This recognition belongs as much to our dedicated team as it does to the users who inspire us to continually raise the bar for excellence in fintech and cybersecurity.”

Highlighting OPay’s proactive approach to security, Chief Commercial Officer Elizabeth Wang said, “We are incredibly proud to receive both Fintech Company of the Year and Best Fintech in Cybersecurity at the 9th Tech Innovation Awards, two recognitions that highlight our dedication to security and user protection. At OPay, we believe that equipping users with the knowledge and advanced tools is essential to building trust and promoting financial inclusion. This was demonstrated through our OPay Security Vote Campaign some months ago, a dynamic social media initiative that educated users on our in-app security features. The campaign has helped millions of Nigerians understand how to protect their accounts and transact safely, reinforcing that security is central to everything we do. Hence, these awards recognise not only our leadership in fintech but also our commitment to keeping every transaction secure and our customers confident in their financial journey.”

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OPay was established in 2018 as a leading financial institution in Nigeria with the mission to make financial services more inclusive through technology. The company offers a wide range of payment services, including money transfer, bill payment, card service, airtime and data purchase, and merchant payments, among others. Renowned for its fast and reliable network and strong security features that protect customers’ funds, OPay is licensed by the Central Bank of Nigeria and insured by the Nigerian Deposit Insurance Corporation with the same insurance coverage as commercial banks.

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